EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia III - Page 16
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Mataza
Germany5364 Posts
Good enough to be dangerous at least^^ "You´re nex_" was written below the first line, an unfinished message in shaky letters. The second stroke from the "x" went all the way down the wall. | ||
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Mataza
Germany5364 Posts
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youngminii
Australia7514 Posts
On June 07 2011 08:24 stefftastiq wrote: + Show Spoiler + Okay. prplhz Palmar Mataza stefftastiq OriginalName You're all on my huge FoS list if Sinani flips non-red. I can't think of any reason why you all have such a strong opinion about lynching him. His actions are very non-scummy. If he had mafia friends I'd assume they'd try to change discussion to something else other than lynching him. Basically makes half the players <.< Also, Varpulis jumping around with his voting pattern, basically accusing everyone. Don't know what to make of that, just noting it. As for my vote, I'm basically defending Sinani now and I agree with Varpulis' plan. Also: Just saying, he was an aybsmal townie in the first place. It's not a huge loss in the end. ##Vote OriginalName @youngminii you obviously copied this votelist from GM's post - but WHY did you remove unichans name from the vote list? he had a vote sinani as well - it it was not on the top of the list nor on the bottom.... so cant really blame it from a bad copy/paste or something. Why werent you suspicious about unichan? Actually the names were all the people that were voting Sinani. I absolutely 100% support Kavdragon's post against OriginalName. Not only is his analysis spot on, the information that we get from lynching him is amazing. If he ends up flipping scum, then based on the votes from day 1, we can easily narrow down the remaining scum. In fact, if OriginalName ISN'T scum then all we have to do is step back and re-evaluate everyone. That sounds confusing but I'll explain. At the end of Day 1, it had essentially become Sinani V OriginalName plus a few ragtag votes (almost all of which were by people under the radar) among other people. There were some people that switched from Sinani to ON that could be regarded scummy but that's for another discussion. Right now we know that Sinani was town. In fact, the fact that he was a vet made him an extremely important target for the mafia to snipe during the day. As such, it leads me to believe that at least 2-3 people that had originally (before moving over to ON) voted for Sinani were indeed scum. As more and more townies jumped on the bandwagon, the scum felt relatively safe. Then an opposing bandwagon started on ON. If ON is scum, then the vote on Sinani became even more important, as Sinani was the only other option. If ON is scum, then everyone on the Sinani bandwagon becomes even more suspicious than they are now, to the point where they become lynchable/vigi targets (imo). This is actually the most likely scenario, since mataza/palmar are both on my scumdar and steff/prplhz are both pretty scummy too. Now if ON is actually a townie, then this means that mafia didn't actually have to do anything really for Day 1. I mean, they COULD have started the Sinani bandwagon so it doesn't really clear them. But if ON is town, then why would the people that voted for ON have even bothered? Why would I go for ON if he's just going to end up town? The bottom line is that there is no reason for myself or anyone else that went for ON (originally) to risk ourselves when we have a perfectly valid Sinani lynch. If ON ends up townie, it most likely means that the people with ragtag votes on other people could very well be mafia just laughing as town kills each other. This is actually the most unlikely outcome, but it's still a possibility. So basically, ON is almost definitely mafia, but if he's not we still gain a ton of valuable information. | ||
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unichan
United States4223 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On June 06 2011 09:34 Varpulis wrote: Plan: Cops check sinani. DON'T CLAIM COP If he's scum, find another way to communicate it. Call his claim under scrutiny later, and analyze his posting to show that he's scum. Claim only if you think you're going to die. We proceed to lynch OriginalName, for lurking and not posting content. He has joined all the major bandwagons and posted only his opinion of those players that he's voting for, basically just repeating what everybody else is saying. Thoughts? Not much has occurred since then that could change my mind. ##vote: OriginalName | ||
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youngminii
Australia7514 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [Theory #2] + OriginalName, unichan and either prplhz/stefftastic. Again for the sake of being absolute, I'll go with prplhz. ON and unichan have completely avoided each other (not a single word uttered to or about each other). This is common between scum during the early game so as to not establish any connection between each other (ironic). They were both against Sinani and both without any good reason ie. pure bandwagoning. Prplhz is a special case, he's the one that started the Sinani bandwagon. Now, scum don't usually start bandwagons since it usually attracts attention when the guy eventually flips green/blue, but I don't think he knew that it would become the actual lynch and that he was just making a few little accusations to appear active. Now I know you don't agree but the reasons against Sinani were ridiculous and should not have resulted in his lynch, but I do agree that his reaction to the pressure was sub-par. In any case, Prplhz realises that the lynch that he started is going to go through and does a last minute "I'm not sure about this vote.." dance, but never actually changes his vote since the only other lynch candidate is him scummate ON. Grain of salt. This also means that I'm completely backing off Palmar as I find his day 1 actions weird (not really scummy not really townie) considering Mataza is town. I think his vote switch from Sinani to ON might have been genuine. ##Vote OriginalName | ||
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unichan
United States4223 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 03:22 OriginalName wrote: I think I can answer this instead of Palmer. 1. We get none, we have a free target for scum to avoid ASSUMING WE HAVE A VET. 2. Said "confirmed" townie could be scum trying to control us and avoid his lynch. We also could have no vet making counterclaiming irrelevant furthering his position. 3. It creates more Wifom (see 2) 4. Claiming in a closed setup unless about to be lynched is a pointless undertaking. We have no way of confirmed outside of death and a sane DT who could also be fakeclaiming. which looked scummy to me, but I didn't actually start posting content and understanding why a vet claim would be stupid until later, and I didn't catch this until today when I was rereading the thread. To be honest I didn't understand the case against ON at all, the one vs sinani was 10x more clearcut (fluffy posts derp derp easy lynch), and made more sense to me at the time. So yes, it was bandwagoning, but that was because I didn't see any compelling reason to vote for anyone else. | ||
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OriginalName
Canada1140 Posts
On June 07 2011 11:16 youngminii wrote: Actually the names were all the people that were voting Sinani. I absolutely 100% support Kavdragon's post against OriginalName. Not only is his analysis spot on, the information that we get from lynching him is amazing. If he ends up flipping scum, then based on the votes from day 1, we can easily narrow down the remaining scum. In fact, if OriginalName ISN'T scum then all we have to do is step back and re-evaluate everyone. That sounds confusing but I'll explain. At the end of Day 1, it had essentially become Sinani V OriginalName plus a few ragtag votes (almost all of which were by people under the radar) among other people. There were some people that switched from Sinani to ON that could be regarded scummy but that's for another discussion. Right now we know that Sinani was town. In fact, the fact that he was a vet made him an extremely important target for the mafia to snipe during the day. As such, it leads me to believe that at least 2-3 people that had originally (before moving over to ON) voted for Sinani were indeed scum. As more and more townies jumped on the bandwagon, the scum felt relatively safe. Then an opposing bandwagon started on ON. If ON is scum, then the vote on Sinani became even more important, as Sinani was the only other option. If ON is scum, then everyone on the Sinani bandwagon becomes even more suspicious than they are now, to the point where they become lynchable/vigi targets (imo). This is actually the most likely scenario, since mataza/palmar are both on my scumdar and steff/prplhz are both pretty scummy too. Now if ON is actually a townie, then this means that mafia didn't actually have to do anything really for Day 1. I mean, they COULD have started the Sinani bandwagon so it doesn't really clear them. But if ON is town, then why would the people that voted for ON have even bothered? Why would I go for ON if he's just going to end up town? The bottom line is that there is no reason for myself or anyone else that went for ON (originally) to risk ourselves when we have a perfectly valid Sinani lynch. If ON ends up townie, it most likely means that the people with ragtag votes on other people could very well be mafia just laughing as town kills each other. This is actually the most unlikely outcome, but it's still a possibility. So basically, ON is almost definitely mafia, but if he's not we still gain a ton of valuable information. So what your saying is info lynch a scummy town player who made a set of terrible decisions and if we mislynch again it is A GREAT idea. This just makes your defence of Sinani seem more suspicous, you just wanted townie points. The thing is you and Kavs entire plan revolves around me flipping scum which i gurantee you will not happen despite how you would enjoy it. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On June 07 2011 11:13 Mataza wrote: Dammit I screwed up the formatting. Talk to GMarshal. I'm pretty sure after death editing of your good bye post will be allowed. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On June 07 2011 11:53 unichan wrote: The reason why I didn't say anything about ON early on was because I had nothing to say about him. I'm assuming he didn't mention me either because I only came up in discussions about inactive/useless posters. The only thing I noticed about him was that he supported a vet claim earlier + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 03:22 OriginalName wrote: I think I can answer this instead of Palmer. 1. We get none, we have a free target for scum to avoid ASSUMING WE HAVE A VET. 2. Said "confirmed" townie could be scum trying to control us and avoid his lynch. We also could have no vet making counterclaiming irrelevant furthering his position. 3. It creates more Wifom (see 2) 4. Claiming in a closed setup unless about to be lynched is a pointless undertaking. We have no way of confirmed outside of death and a sane DT who could also be fakeclaiming. which looked scummy to me, but I didn't actually start posting content and understanding why a vet claim would be stupid until later, and I didn't catch this until today when I was rereading the thread. To be honest I didn't understand the case against ON at all, the one vs sinani was 10x more clearcut (fluffy posts derp derp easy lynch), and made more sense to me at the time. So yes, it was bandwagoning, but that was because I didn't see any compelling reason to vote for anyone else. Um. There may have been a slight bit of sarcasm in that post, but he was most definitely AGAINST a vet claim. He's providing all the bad things that would happen if that had happened. On June 07 2011 12:09 OriginalName wrote: So what your saying is info lynch a scummy town player who made a set of terrible decisions and if we mislynch again it is A GREAT idea. This just makes your defence of Sinani seem more suspicous, you just wanted townie points. The thing is you and Kavs entire plan revolves around me flipping scum which i gurantee you will not happen despite how you would enjoy it. I never said anything about a plan, and nothing about what I said revolves around you flipping scum. I simply analysed your posting and found that you had made several actions that made you look scummy. However, let me be clear: It's not the simple fact that you voted for sinani, it's the fact that you did so very reluctantly, as made evident by a defense of sinani in the same post you voted him. It's the fact that someone went from your "I'm-going-to-try-to-lynch-him-till-he-steps-up-his-game" list to your "I-think-he's-town" without any reasonable development in play from that person. You didn't just make a set of terrible decisions, you pointed out WHY they were wrong in the same post that you made them. Your play doesn't make any sense as a townie, and it makes perfect sense as a mafia member. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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JeeJee
Canada5652 Posts
On June 07 2011 10:57 GMarshal wrote: Day post in 4 minutes. If I don't have an action from you then you spent the night twiddling your thumbs I don't know how GMarshal usually mods, but if you ask me, there is no reason for this post unless a night action that was supposed to be sent in, wasn't. So either we have an afk doc/cop, or mafia have an afk roleblocker. Of course if you've been rb'd last night, come forward and let us know (mafia already know who they rb'd, so there's zero point witholding that info from the town). Secondly, the ON wagon. It all stems from Kav's post as below. I got rid of some of your bold tags so that my responses (in bold) wouldn't be confused. On June 07 2011 09:24 Kavdragon wrote: I feel irish, cause I just found GOLD. (So much so that I'm going to forego my usual analysis formatting) Check this out: Sinani asks if vets can be lynched (something that was an obvious vet claim to me at the time) and three posts later, OriginalName posts this jem: Look at this post: There is more in that post explaining why sinani is innocent than there is condeming him. Is there really? Here's what I see.. "sinani is an okay lynch since he's useless, all he's doing is writing lists which make you seem pro-town but actually isnt. i'll go with his lynch for now but I'm open to alternatives as his lynch won't give us a lot of info".. Where exactly is this majority that talks about sinani's innocence?The last paragraph in particular is condeming. "I'll go along with it for now..." He says that he'll go along with is, but he says it really reluctantly. If you are reluctant to vote someone, why are you voting them!? On a day1 lynch, uncertainty is not unheard of.. In fact it's probably the most common sentiment out there"But I would like to consider somwhere else as nobody is really connected to him and hes probably being thrown under the metaphorical bus" He even defends him, pointing out the two things that were wrong with the lynch, and procedes to vote him!. This is EXACTLY the sort of thing that you look for afterwards. What he says in his post and what he proceds to vote are a COMPLETE CONTADICTION. He cannot say with conviction that Sinani is scum, because he knows that he is not his scum buddy! Or perhaps he can't say it with conviction because it's day one, and nobody knows anything. Let's also look at who he pulled his vote off of in order to vote sinani: Steff. Up to this point he's said that mataza has been playing badly and at least insinuated that he was scum, along with palmer. However, he's never felt strongly enough to vote them. He voted Steff: He says that "his opinion from yesterday still stands" implying that he though that steff was lynch worthy for the past two days. (one game day). The key thing here is that he "highly suggests lynching [steff] unless he really steps it up." Steff didn't step it up, yet he pulls his vote off of him ONE POST LATER, and reluctantly votes for Sinani. This makes no sense. He shows that he actually has very little conviction behind what he is saying, and is not conserned with who is lynched. Classic scum mentality. I disagree here as well. Before ON's post, steff posted 4 times, all of which were pretty much useless "im drunk lol" posts. After ON's post (before ON switched to nani), steff posted 8 more times, with at least 3 solid player opinion posts (and some other junk). I'm not sure what your definition of "stepping up" is, but I think this qualifies. Looking past the sinani vote, in all of his posts up to the lynch (when people are trying to push the lynch onto him) he never once denys peoples accusations, and instead of defending himself, he just pushes for sinani harder. That's not how townies play. Townies don't lynch other people just so that they stay alive. Actually, that's exactly how townies play. You even said so in the next sentence. If someone accuses the hell out of me, I can defend myself all I want, but if I don't give an alternative, that's all pointless. Alternatives and analysis are key to any townie defense. Not just shutting down attackers arguments as that won't convince anyone, even though you're green. Remember this game isn't about what's true, but about what you can make people believe. You look for someone else who looks like scum (steff)and push for that instead of the person you think we should not be focusing on (sinani). OriginalName has played enough games to know better than that. Original Name is scum. This is about as clear cut as it gets folks. OriginalName is the obvious choice for a day 2 lynch. Is it really as clear cut as it gets? Now, I know. It's only a problem when you have a solution. I have an alternative, hold yer horses. Post 2 coming up. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Town Varpulis -Still town JeeJee -Logical, helpful, and critical. His posting gives me town vibes, and I agree with his arguments. no change. Palmar -retarded posting early, recent posts are good. For now, I'll tentatively call him green, though i'm less confident on him. I still like him. Still not confident. Kavdragon -Yay, activity. His arguments are logical and he's providing good content. Town. Null reads Unichan stefftastiq Youngminii -I'm this close to calling him town, but I'm not sure. He gets big points for defending sinani. prplhz -Slightly more suspicious of him now, mostly because he started the sinani wagon. Will have to look through his posts to deduce if it's just misguided town play or actual scum. Scum OriginalName -Joins bandwagons, posts fluff, sheeps, and defends himself terribly. Scum. Will elaborate later | ||
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OriginalName
Canada1140 Posts
OriginalName has played enough games to know better than that. I want you to find one game where Ive played decently as town. Off the top my head ive been: -D1 Mayor lynched (by you) -Shot by mafia for confusion -Really inactive minigame -Subbed out Your just bullshitting now, I'm trying to improve but using this as evidence is really weak. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On June 07 2011 13:04 OriginalName wrote: Also Kav I just want to point this out despite how I hate using Meta I want you to find one game where Ive played decently as town. Off the top my head ive been: -D1 Mayor lynched (by you) -Shot by mafia for confusion -Really inactive minigame -Subbed out Your just bullshitting now, I'm trying to improve but using this as evidence is really weak. Um...That has nothing to do with meta. As you yourself said, meta is about extrapolating from patterns in someone's play. This has nothing to do with patterns in your play, and I would say the same thing about anyone who has played in as many games as you, regardless of whether I knew anything about there meta. (Take Bumatlarge for instance, in the game where I lynched you D1 as mayor: I called him out because I knew that he was an experienced player, but I knew nothing of his meta at that point.) It's about having played in enough games that you know some basics about play. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On June 07 2011 12:40 JeeJee wrote: Ok, first I want to point something out. I don't know how GMarshal usually mods, but if you ask me, there is no reason for this post unless a night action that was supposed to be sent in, wasn't. So either we have an afk doc/cop, or mafia have an afk roleblocker. Of course if you've been rb'd last night, come forward and let us know (mafia already know who they rb'd, so there's zero point witholding that info from the town). Secondly, the ON wagon. It all stems from Kav's post as below. I got rid of some of your bold tags so that my responses (in bold) wouldn't be confused. Is it really as clear cut as it gets? Now, I know. It's only a problem when you have a solution. I have an alternative, hold yer horses. Post 2 coming up. Responses in Red. ##Vote: OriginalName | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
(In this case i would have waited till at least 20hrs before posting that, so that it would be in time for people to change their minds if they were convinced by your arguments, but you leave enough time for OriginalName to respond.) | ||
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JeeJee
Canada5652 Posts
my computer bitched out on me twice while writing my part 2. It's getting late I'm not going to re-write it a 3rd time tonight. Will sleep on it and write it up tomorrow. Will read your responses at that time as well Kav | ||
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