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+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 12:21 tnkted wrote:
Everyone disregard this (crumbing for later):
DSBETNLBNTF
Now, on to the game. Trying to find scum's breadcrumbs is going to be extremely difficult imo. There are two ways I think we can play this game if breadcrumbing is vitally important:
1. Set up a posting standardization system where people refrain from using coloqualisms and any identifying characteristics. This system would have to be set up so that all players may only communicate using certain standard symbols or phrases. By simplifying the language like this we can dirastically reduce the ways in which breadcrumbing can happen. However, such a system would completely remove all sense of personality and also all other possible scumtells.
2. Not focus on breadcrumbing at all, except where it is obvious. If we focus on breadcrumbing, picking apart everybody's posts for clues and hints we're going to completely miss what we should be really looking for in those posts, which are scumtells. You can bet that since scum doesn't know who scum is, they are NOT going to want to vote for the scummiest players. Scum is going to act stranger than normal, so we can't waste time looking for scumtells. We can't stop the CL from pming his cronies, so looking for scumtells is a waste of time and town attention. Remember what happened when we focused on the item game in insane 2? We won the item game but lost the overall game. :/
Now, 1 is going to be pretty difficult to do, so I vote that we do 2.
Your breadcrumbing thing almost got me killed in XXXVII.
A. Because you worded your question weirdly
B. Because I'm not that bright.
Please don't get me killed.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 12:29 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Of course scum-hunting is going to be the best way to find scum, but breadcrumbs are also a good way of finding out the cell leader. It looks like he can only send one PM to one of his people per morning/evening, which means that he's going to have to find a way to get information out to them otherwise, or else he'll have no way to contact more than a couple of them. We can't really rely on the connections between players in this game, so if someone starts acting weird after PM time, maybe they're scum. Also, when we kill the GF, we can go back and look at who he was trying to direct, and who he was paying special attention to, and how.
I kinda understand what you are saying but how can we identify a breadcrumb if we only see half of it? Maybe if somebody keeps using the same word or phrase repeatedly but even then it would be hard to pick out.
If you have a suggestion for how we might be able to spot these please feel free to share. I have trouble spotting breadcrumbs when I know what I'm supposed to be looking for. 
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On April 25 2011 16:10 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 15:33 sandroba wrote:
EBWOP: I also agree that pointing out vigilantes is not a blue tell, but neither is the post he quoted, which is basically the same thing. If he thinks that what vain did is a blue tell he wouldn't do it if he was blue. He would only do it if he wants to appear to be blue. I did it because it's the biggest blue tell in the world. "Hey guys, let's dt check someone, don't mind me". It's just bad play, that's it. I have no FoS on him, i'm just saying that if he is dt, then we are screwed because mafia would probably pick that up faster than I did. For this very reason, I recommend a dt checks vein because if he isn't the dt, then he's probably scum with the whole "don't mind me" phrase.
Uh, i only stated they should maybe check twice because there is a big chance(25%) they come out wrongly. Now why would i point that out if i was a dt? that reasoning makes not sence at all.
For now we should obviously get the inactives posting a bit so we have actually something to analyze. Here is a list of post done by people as of the start of the day till now.
1. Jackal58: 4
2. Ace: 4
3. sandroba 3
4. GGQ 3
5. darmousseh 3
6. Vain 2
7. Mr. Wiggles 2
8. Impervious 2
9. tnkted 1
10. GMarshal 1
Not posted jet: Zorkmid, why, Tackster, Kenpachi, Eiii, Rean,
Note: List is made from high to low posts. Other than that the persons are in no particular order. This list only represents the posting activity not the quality of the post themselves
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United States22154 Posts
Ladies and Gentlemen. I have a plan, a plan that costs us nothing and and aids us in defeating or at least confusing the mafia's ability to "crumb" with specific words or phrases. Don't know what I'm getting at? sence the mafia are going to likely identify each other based on a few words or phrases I am going to mimic peoples posts and steal whole sentences and words that seem suspicious to me. This way if the mafia is revealing themselves by key phrases I confuse them into either believing I am one of them or not being able to use code phrases, I suggest you all do the same, I mean we dont know if it will work jet, but anything that causes confusion amongst the scum team will help us.
I also suggest that if multiple people quote a post others of us do the same, as that might be a method of identification as well.
Also I agree we need to keep up the posting activity, as quality posts are important to foster discussion.
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On April 25 2011 11:40 Ace wrote:
Analysis in this setup is still the same as a normal setup. The main difference here is that associating people by alignment in the beginning is much harder.
Scum still know they are Scum and that almost everyone else is Town. That shouldn't drastically altar their behavior.
I was thinking about this on my way to work Ace. (Hour + drive and I spend it thinking about Mafia. I need help.)
In this setup would it not be even more beneficial for scum to lurk? Why I ask is it would seem to me that if what Wiggles said is true "scum can kill scum" and we can lynch them when they slip up what incentive do they have to post at all other than to avoid a mod kill? If they try to appear town their scum buddies can kill them. If they try to hide and skate we'll lynch them. I understand that scum still know they're scum but I believe this setup will drastically alter their behavior. As in making it almost non existent. So to that end I would like iGrok to verify Wiggles statement of scum being able to kill scum. I'm not getting that from the OP. And if that is the way it works I'm thinking we should just lynch the least active player each day.
Maybe I'm thinking to much into this.
Can scum hit scum at night?
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On April 25 2011 21:35 GMarshal wrote:
Ladies and Gentlemen. I have a plan, a plan that costs us nothing and and aids us in defeating or at least confusing the mafia's ability to "crumb" with specific words or phrases. Don't know what I'm getting at? sence the mafia are going to likely identify each other based on a few words or phrases I am going to mimic peoples posts and steal whole sentences and words that seem suspicious to me. This way if the mafia is revealing themselves by key phrases I confuse them into either believing I am one of them or not being able to use code phrases, I suggest you all do the same, I mean we dont know if it will work jet, but anything that causes confusion amongst the scum team will help us.
I also suggest that if multiple people quote a post others of us do the same, as that might be a method of identification as well.
Also I agree we need to keep up the posting activity, as quality posts are important to foster discussion.
Wouldn't they just search for the original post? Might slow them down a bit maybe.
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I think this discussion about breadcrumbs is not productive at all, specially if you reveal your strategy before you put it in practice. Doing what you are suggesting is going to make scumhunting more difficult imo. Also I don't think that's the way mafia is going to identify each other, as there are several other more obvious ways I can think of.
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On April 25 2011 21:41 sandroba wrote:
I think this discussion about breadcrumbs is not productive at all, specially if you reveal your strategy before you put it in practice. Doing what you are suggesting is going to make scumhunting more difficult imo. Also I don't think that's the way mafia is going to identify each other, as there are several other more obvious ways I can think of.
Please share.
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On April 25 2011 12:21 tnkted wrote:
Everyone disregard this (crumbing for later):
DSBETNLBNTF
Now, on to the game. Trying to find scum's breadcrumbs is going to be extremely difficult imo. There are two ways I think we can play this game if breadcrumbing is vitally important:
1. Set up a posting standardization system where people refrain from using coloqualisms and any identifying characteristics. This system would have to be set up so that all players may only communicate using certain standard symbols or phrases. By simplifying the language like this we can dirastically reduce the ways in which breadcrumbing can happen. However, such a system would completely remove all sense of personality and also all other possible scumtells.
2. Not focus on breadcrumbing at all, except where it is obvious. If we focus on breadcrumbing, picking apart everybody's posts for clues and hints we're going to completely miss what we should be really looking for in those posts, which are scumtells. You can bet that since scum doesn't know who scum is, they are NOT going to want to vote for the scummiest players. Scum is going to act stranger than normal, so we can't waste time looking for scumtells. We can't stop the CL from pming his cronies, so looking for scumtells is a waste of time and town attention. Remember what happened when we focused on the item game in insane 2? We won the item game but lost the overall game. :/
Now, 1 is going to be pretty difficult to do, so I vote that we do 2.
I completely agree with method number 2 here. Behaviour analysis is going to be our main weapon, as always. As we get further into the game, it will become even easier to compare the behaviour of mafia from day1 and 2 when they most likely don't know each other to how they are acting on the next days (3+) which they most likely figured it out.
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On April 25 2011 21:46 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 21:41 sandroba wrote:
I think this discussion about breadcrumbs is not productive at all, specially if you reveal your strategy before you put it in practice. Doing what you are suggesting is going to make scumhunting more difficult imo. Also I don't think that's the way mafia is going to identify each other, as there are several other more obvious ways I can think of. Please share.
If you can't think of one it's in my best interest not to share, because maybe the cell leader cannot think of one aswell. Why do you want me to share it?
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On April 25 2011 21:46 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 21:41 sandroba wrote:
I think this discussion about breadcrumbs is not productive at all, specially if you reveal your strategy before you put it in practice. Doing what you are suggesting is going to make scumhunting more difficult imo. Also I don't think that's the way mafia is going to identify each other, as there are several other more obvious ways I can think of. Please share.
Well for instance the cell leader could hint them who is who. It is stated in the first post that the cell leader is allowed to breadcrumb. He can also send that pm at dusk and down so in theory he could give some direction to who to vote for to lynch at dawn and also who to hit at dusk.
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United States22154 Posts
On April 25 2011 21:41 sandroba wrote:
I think this discussion about breadcrumbs is not productive at all, specially if you reveal your strategy before you put it in practice. Doing what you are suggesting is going to make scumhunting more difficult imo. Also I don't think that's the way mafia is going to identify each other, as there are several other more obvious ways I can think of.
As I see it there are only a few basic ways for the mafia to communicate.
1.) The GF reveals individualy who each member is to another member with a message such as "the pardoner is mafia" this is going to take forever and is not an optimal use of messaging
2.) The GF orchestrates something like "everyone change their signature to 'death and destruction' (which is why I am keeping track of peoples signatures) it is going to be an obvious reveal if so
3.) the GF organizes no obvious breadcrumbing something like "include three typos per post" or "use the word spectral" by implementing my strategy we stomp on any such plan. There might be work arounds but I have to wonder if the GF can figure it out and inform the rest of the team in only five word messages.
I find it curious that you oppose this plan, whats so bad about it sand?
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On April 25 2011 21:53 sandroba wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 21:46 Jackal58 wrote:On April 25 2011 21:41 sandroba wrote:
I think this discussion about breadcrumbs is not productive at all, specially if you reveal your strategy before you put it in practice. Doing what you are suggesting is going to make scumhunting more difficult imo. Also I don't think that's the way mafia is going to identify each other, as there are several other more obvious ways I can think of. Please share. If you can't think of one it's in my best interest not to share, because maybe the cell leader cannot think of one aswell. Why do you want me to share it?
So we would know what to look for. I hadn't considered what the cell leader may or may not be capable of thinking of.
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United States22154 Posts
On April 25 2011 21:57 Vain wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 21:46 Jackal58 wrote:On April 25 2011 21:41 sandroba wrote:
I think this discussion about breadcrumbs is not productive at all, specially if you reveal your strategy before you put it in practice. Doing what you are suggesting is going to make scumhunting more difficult imo. Also I don't think that's the way mafia is going to identify each other, as there are several other more obvious ways I can think of. Please share. Well for instance the cell leader could hint them who is who. It is stated in the first post that the cell leader is allowed to breadcrumb. He can also send that pm at dusk and down so in theory he could give some direction to who to vote for to lynch at dawn and also who to hit at dusk.
He isn't allowed to use player names, period, so thats going to be difficult to say the least. Yes the cell leader can hint at who is who but he has five words or 20 characters to do it in, its going to be a bitch to inform 1/3 of the players in this game about each others identity without being able to send out names. Assume it takes him one PM to reveal one player ,which makes sense as he can't just say it so he'd have to say something like "DT in Surprisingly Normal Mafia" to reveal a player assuming 5 members that means its going to take him 2 and a half days to inform everyone, (this is assuming any PMs are sent out to the whole group, if they are sent to individuals its even harder).
If they want to be efficient they have to find a way to post it in the thread, and thats what this plan sets out to hinder.
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United States22154 Posts
Also on "the cell leader may not have come up with it" I think its always a good idea to assume the opposition is as smart as you are, if not smarter.
I understand if you don't want to reveal it, but if it requires posting in the thread we can find it, spoof it, or otherwise sabotage it.
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On April 25 2011 21:57 Vain wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 21:46 Jackal58 wrote:On April 25 2011 21:41 sandroba wrote:
I think this discussion about breadcrumbs is not productive at all, specially if you reveal your strategy before you put it in practice. Doing what you are suggesting is going to make scumhunting more difficult imo. Also I don't think that's the way mafia is going to identify each other, as there are several other more obvious ways I can think of. Please share. Well for instance the cell leader could hint them who is who. It is stated in the first post that the cell leader is allowed to breadcrumb. He can also send that pm at dusk and down so in theory he could give some direction to who to vote for to lynch at dawn and also who to hit at dusk.
Which would still take a lot of time. As far as I see there is no way for the CL to mass communicate to all the Scum in the game without us picking up on it.
Either way I've got a different question for everyone:
Look at the player list. Let's pretend you were the Cell Leader for a second. What 3 players on the list would you send a message to and what would it be? (assume everyone is Scum for a second so you can just pick anyone)
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On April 25 2011 22:06 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 21:57 Vain wrote:On April 25 2011 21:46 Jackal58 wrote:On April 25 2011 21:41 sandroba wrote:
I think this discussion about breadcrumbs is not productive at all, specially if you reveal your strategy before you put it in practice. Doing what you are suggesting is going to make scumhunting more difficult imo. Also I don't think that's the way mafia is going to identify each other, as there are several other more obvious ways I can think of. Please share. Well for instance the cell leader could hint them who is who. It is stated in the first post that the cell leader is allowed to breadcrumb. He can also send that pm at dusk and down so in theory he could give some direction to who to vote for to lynch at dawn and also who to hit at dusk. He isn't allowed to use player names, period, so thats going to be difficult to say the least. Yes the cell leader can hint at who is who but he has five words or 20 characters to do it in, its going to be a bitch to inform 1/3 of the players in this game about each others identity without being able to send out names. Assume it takes him one PM to reveal one player ,which makes sense as he can't just say it so he'd have to say something like "DT in Surprisingly Normal Mafia" to reveal a player assuming 5 members that means its going to take him 2 and a half days to inform everyone, (this is assuming any PMs are sent out to the whole group, if they are sent to individuals its even harder). If they want to be efficient they have to find a way to post it in the thread, and thats what this plan sets out to hinder.
Oh, never mind that. I assumed the pm's were send out to every scum player but the first post states otherwise. Well in my opinion this will clutter the debate a bit but if it works we could have a very good edge on the mafia. So i suggest we will follow this plan.
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"CELL LEADER:
You may send a message consisting of 5 words or 20 characters to any agent at dawn and dusk of each day. Submit it like a normal action. The message can't contain the name of any player. The message is PM'd to both myself and chaoser. We will send it to the player you specify. Cute attempts to get around the "No Names" rule or the word/char limit will result in the message being "lost". Feel free to crumb, just don't put the name (or any form of the name) in there."
We have to assume a max of 5 mafia. One of them is the cell leader. We have to assume the cell leader can think of a way of informing one agent per day and per night of their buddies. So by day 3 all agents should know each other. We have no way of knowing that the method he is going to use is the one you sugested, and the fact that it's been sugested makes it even less likely. Discussing this extensively is not going to create a town atmosphere that favors town as it's an useless discussion that everyone can chime in without revealing any information. I suggest that we focus on behaviour analysis and start to pressure inactives and people that make useless posts.
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Guys, this talk about breadcrumbing is nice and all, but I don't see it going much further at the moment. We should probably wait a while before bringing this up, so we can catch a slip up. Especially if they are trying to hide their posting in the thread.
I think we should talk about the pros and cons of of double-checking anyone who gets the result of "insufficient analysis", to make it easier on the DT.
The pros of double checking are that you are more sure of the result. The cons are that you could be checking someone else instead, therefore checking more people. I really think the cons outweigh the pros in this case.
Thoughts?
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United States22154 Posts
I like that question, I'll take the first shot at answering it.
Now, I'm assuming one person is receiving the message.
1.) Ace- "I'm the pardoner from XXXVIII": with a veteran player like Ace I would be trying to get as much information to him as possible, information is power and even with only a little bit of it I'm sure he could get stuff done
2.) Mr. Wiggles - " mafia will post 'serial killer' " or some other breadcrumb that would allow me to reveal myself to him and then the rest of the team. I might think of a more clever breadcrumb than that, and if it were clever enough I might use it for ace instead.
3.) why- same as for wiggles, as a veteran player both of them are people I could count on to work it into their regular posts without worrying too much about them messing up.
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On April 25 2011 22:38 Impervious wrote:
Guys, this talk about breadcrumbing is nice and all, but I don't see it going much further at the moment. We should probably wait a while before bringing this up, so we can catch a slip up. Especially if they are trying to hide their posting in the thread.
I think we should talk about the pros and cons of of double-checking anyone who gets the result of "insufficient analysis", to make it easier on the DT.
The pros of double checking are that you are more sure of the result. The cons are that you could be checking someone else instead, therefore checking more people. I really think the cons outweigh the pros in this case.
Thoughts?
Even if you double checked someone and got "Incomplete Analysis" it's a waste of time. If you get it once and you checked the person because you assumed they were scum it's better to come out with it and play the odds that they are CL and not that you hit the 25% chance you rolled the wrong result.
Also there may be other roles not listed in the OP that have this same effect. Whether they are good or bad you won't know so you could end up wasting another day of your check to get you no further than your first check. Just roll with the odds on this one.
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EPT
