|
On June 03 2010 17:36 ElyAs wrote:As for inactives, I think it's still good to put some pressure on them. We'll need every vote for the mayor run and we need a non-mafia mayor or else we are in for a lot of trouble. Show nested quote + On June 03 2010 14:28 MTF wrote:
No voting from me until I see more discussion and runners, though.
Can you tell us more about the fact that you want more runners ? As the scums are likely to vote for one of them, if we have too many runners it can be detrimental imo.
Having a Mafia member run for Mayor is beneficial for us, so long as that person doesn't actually get elected. It makes it far more likely for a bandwagon to show up, which makes it easier to identify potential suspects.
Also, I dislike having only one serious person running, and thus only one good choice.
|
Okay, seems sensible.
Still I'm not comfortable with having more than 5/6 runners.
|
@Flamewheel: By the way (I mentioned this to you before), roleblocker is still in the role descriptions but not listed in the player list post. Are there roleblockers in this game?
---
Good morning gentlemen (and ladies?).
I've looked through the thread by now. I see lots of discussion of clues. That's cool. Keep that information in mind and look for themes and connections to later clues, because that's the only way you'd catch mafia off of the clues. There's history for this, go read up on any game with clues you like. I was in this game and we failed miserably on clues trying to get mafia (of course, when half of the clue discussion is coming from the mafia in that game, it's not too hard to see why).
I see three people have announced they're running for office. They're good people to keep an eye on, sure, but they're also willingly throwing themselves in the spotlight so they're under pressure.
What I don't see is much discussion of what we, the town, should be doing. The only serious heat right now is on YellowInk (and that from clues, so I'm not buying it). There's been almost no talk about any game strategy at all.
Some quick notes about blue roles:
Medic saves and veteran hits will be told to all involved parties (well, not whoever did the hitting, but they'll know the hit was blocked when the day post doesn't have the target dead). If you get medic protected, congratulations--you've just 100% confirmed for yourself that someone is town-aligned. Medic, if you protect someone, let them know it was you who saved them.
It's possible that a mafia could try to play the medic in this situation, but there are dangers for them: firstly, if it was a veteran night life instead of a medic save, the mafia claiming medic is immediately outed. Secondly, the person who was saved will get two PMs (assuming the actual medic does his job) from people claiming to have saved him. We then just lynch the people who PM'd the saved person. If we get the mafioso, great, we're done and the other guy is legit and confirmed. If we get the medic, tough luck, but we snag a red the next day.
If you take a hit, either from medic protection OR from being a veteran and living, speak up. The mafia knows they hit you anyway, so you're not giving them any information. Telling the town is good. Don't tell the town how you were protected, just say "I took a hit last night."
I'm not sure how we should capitalize on a medic save, because I've not thought about it much. I'll mull it over today, and you should think about it too. But to be honest medics are a really tough role to play and medic saves are pretty rare (the only one in Pyrry's game was after the result was essentially decided), so don't count on this situation arising. But we definitely want to be able to take advantage of it if it happens.
---
You may have noticed that I didn't mention Vigilante hits above (this is relevant to the medic discussion; it's theoretically possible for a medic to block a Vigi hit aimed at a mafioso). Vigis shouldn't be too trigger-happy, and I think it's in our (the town's) best interest to give them advice on whom and when to hit. This gives us the same information that voting does (though without the modkill penalty for abstaining), and lynches are the town's biggest asset. Making a vigi hit into a lynch is good if the town is active enough. If we go this route, medics should obviously not protect the vigi target, and this neatly prevents the chances of a medic blocking a vigi hit on a mafioso. It doesn't prevent a medic from blocking a mafia hit on a mafioso, but generally speaking mafia aiming at themselves is a good thing for the town because some of those hits are going to land and the town will celebrate the red bodies 
---
There's other stuff to discuss too (and more roles I haven't talked about. I'll give some input later on if needed, but this has taken me long enough to write for now so I'm cutting off here). The election would be great, but the candidates need to say more.
I don't believe for a second that the ink death is a clue pointing at YellowInk because it's too obvious like our resident clue expert MTF said.
---
I saw my name on a possible-linked-to-clues list. The quote of issue is from Feynman and I like it because we attach special significance to certain arbitrary sequences of letters and numbers (like 5000, for instance. Why is 5000 more notable than, say, 5023? It isn't, really) and the quote encapsulates that quite nicely (as well as talking about probability like Darth mentioned). That said, license plates definitely belong on cars, but there were car clues in Pyrry's game, which I was in, and I was a medic there. When/if I start acting like a mafioso then you should push for my lynch.
---
This post is enough of a clusterfuck already, so I think I'll cut off here. I want to hear more from all the mayor candidates, especially zeks who announced his candidacy then zonked out for the night.
|
On June 03 2010 13:48 MTF wrote:By the way, + Show Spoiler +ranging from sniffing poison in his coffee cup Decafchicken is clearly Mafia.
Poor decaf never had a chance that game 
Also, can DT's do that voting list check? I remember that was insanely helpful, but it doesnt look like they can this game.
|
Hi Town,
I’m running for office! I’ve played mafia a couple of times on TL, 2 years ago and just getting back into it. I’ve been chosen town for all of the times I’ve played – actually for those who remember I always got medic. I will be extremely active for this game thus I would love to have a “role” and be involved in the major conversations of this game.
I acknowledge the fact that people have drawn clues to me – and that my misreading on the DT role makes me somewhat suspicious. I implore you that everything I do is for the greater benefit of the town.
PRELIMINARY PLAN:
The plan that I have is pretty much a rip-off of plans used in past mafia games. With all the finger-pointing going on already, I want to stress that we shouldn’t look too deep into day 1 clues. It provides us with leads and brings people into the spotlight, but what is happening now is that we’re having animosity and confusion in the town. We need trust.
Detectives: Now that I’ve understood that you can use consecutive role checks, I still think you should use them as quickly (or wisely) as possible. In fact, all our DTs should be role checking someone tonight. Assuming we have 2 DTs:
Detective #1 (if you’re numbered somewhere between #1 - #15): do a role-check on someone from #1-#15
Detective #2 (if you’re numbered somewhere between #16-#30): do a role-check on someone from #16-#30
If you check a red, awesome! Keep that in your list, and if he posts keep track of his behavior as well.
If you check a green/blue, you can make the decision whether to start the inner circle with that person. The reason I say that is the green/blue could be the Miller or the Godfather – assuming 2 millers and 1 Godfather, there is a small chance you could be checking one of them. Again, track that person’s behavior and see if there are any strong clues pointing to them…then you can decide whether to engage that person or not to start the inner circle.
Medics: Honestly I don’t have a good plan with them, I’d say protect our best clue analyzers for now until we start verifying everyone.
The detectives are the key to winning this game quickly and safely, so we want to make sure they at least use up all their rolechecks – thus they’d have to be alive by night 4 (if I’m not mistaken).
Also I previous mentioned that we should have someone compile all the clues / accusations…if someone would love to step up that’d be great.
FIRST LYNCH
If elected mayor, I will lynch whoever the town sees fit; I know there’s no formal voting for tonight since the mayor gets the lynch call – but I will do a tally myself and everyone can vote for who they think should be lynched tonight.
If elected pardoner, I would hope that the new mayor will also do a vote for the first lynch. In that case I promise not to pardon the first lynch. I will also make sure in the future to stop nonsense bandwagons.
Well that’s all I have to say for now, I probably missed a couple things and there’s probably a couple flaws in my plan, but I am happy to answer all your questions the best I can. The important thing is more discussion so we can try to close these loopholes and come up with a very good strategy.
|
Thanks to everyone posting additional information about the game for the newer people.
It'd be great if you added more inputs Crate it was easy to understand and read.
We still have time before we all vote for the mayor right? With 30 people here there's still a bunch of people still to post so would we be looking those people as potential first day lynch?
|
hey first time checking this thread today
due to RL, i won't be able to post/read for several hours, just a heads up
|
Uh oh:O having everything in one thread makes it harder to read=(. Will have to catch up after school.
|
lol this game is totally distracting me from work...
|
So much to read, I like it
bumatlarge's list of potentially implicated mafias looks good, couldnt find any more suspects.
So far its zeks, Darth and YellowInk for mayor right? And the voting takes place and the end of day1?
|
On June 03 2010 20:55 crate wrote:lots of stuff + Show Spoiler +@Flamewheel: By the way (I mentioned this to you before), roleblocker is still in the role descriptions but not listed in the player list post. Are there roleblockers in this game? --- Good morning gentlemen (and ladies?). I've looked through the thread by now. I see lots of discussion of clues. That's cool. Keep that information in mind and look for themes and connections to later clues, because that's the only way you'd catch mafia off of the clues. There's history for this, go read up on any game with clues you like. I was in this game and we failed miserably on clues trying to get mafia (of course, when half of the clue discussion is coming from the mafia in that game, it's not too hard to see why). I see three people have announced they're running for office. They're good people to keep an eye on, sure, but they're also willingly throwing themselves in the spotlight so they're under pressure. What I don't see is much discussion of what we, the town, should be doing. The only serious heat right now is on YellowInk (and that from clues, so I'm not buying it). There's been almost no talk about any game strategy at all. Some quick notes about blue roles: Medic saves and veteran hits will be told to all involved parties (well, not whoever did the hitting, but they'll know the hit was blocked when the day post doesn't have the target dead). If you get medic protected, congratulations--you've just 100% confirmed for yourself that someone is town-aligned. Medic, if you protect someone, let them know it was you who saved them. It's possible that a mafia could try to play the medic in this situation, but there are dangers for them: firstly, if it was a veteran night life instead of a medic save, the mafia claiming medic is immediately outed. Secondly, the person who was saved will get two PMs (assuming the actual medic does his job) from people claiming to have saved him. We then just lynch the people who PM'd the saved person. If we get the mafioso, great, we're done and the other guy is legit and confirmed. If we get the medic, tough luck, but we snag a red the next day. If you take a hit, either from medic protection OR from being a veteran and living, speak up. The mafia knows they hit you anyway, so you're not giving them any information. Telling the town is good. Don't tell the town how you were protected, just say "I took a hit last night." I'm not sure how we should capitalize on a medic save, because I've not thought about it much. I'll mull it over today, and you should think about it too. But to be honest medics are a really tough role to play and medic saves are pretty rare (the only one in Pyrry's game was after the result was essentially decided), so don't count on this situation arising. But we definitely want to be able to take advantage of it if it happens. --- You may have noticed that I didn't mention Vigilante hits above (this is relevant to the medic discussion; it's theoretically possible for a medic to block a Vigi hit aimed at a mafioso). Vigis shouldn't be too trigger-happy, and I think it's in our (the town's) best interest to give them advice on whom and when to hit. This gives us the same information that voting does (though without the modkill penalty for abstaining), and lynches are the town's biggest asset. Making a vigi hit into a lynch is good if the town is active enough. If we go this route, medics should obviously not protect the vigi target, and this neatly prevents the chances of a medic blocking a vigi hit on a mafioso. It doesn't prevent a medic from blocking a mafia hit on a mafioso, but generally speaking mafia aiming at themselves is a good thing for the town because some of those hits are going to land and the town will celebrate the red bodies --- There's other stuff to discuss too (and more roles I haven't talked about. I'll give some input later on if needed, but this has taken me long enough to write for now so I'm cutting off here). The election would be great, but the candidates need to say more. I don't believe for a second that the ink death is a clue pointing at YellowInk because it's too obvious like our resident clue expert MTF said. --- I saw my name on a possible-linked-to-clues list. The quote of issue is from Feynman and I like it because we attach special significance to certain arbitrary sequences of letters and numbers (like 5000, for instance. Why is 5000 more notable than, say, 5023? It isn't, really) and the quote encapsulates that quite nicely (as well as talking about probability like Darth mentioned). That said, license plates definitely belong on cars, but there were car clues in Pyrry's game, which I was in, and I was a medic there. When/if I start acting like a mafioso then you should push for my lynch. --- This post is enough of a clusterfuck already, so I think I'll cut off here. I want to hear more from all the mayor candidates, especially zeks who announced his candidacy then zonked out for the night.
The biggest thing I wanted to point out here is - medics: do not out yourselves to mafia! Crate states that if you protect someone from a hit you've got a 100% townie on your hands, but this is not the case! He later mentions offhand that a medic could block a hit on a mafia, but doesn't clarify that this flaws his original argument. I don't know if this is just flawed presentation on Crate's part or if it's scum, but if you have a blue role, do your homework and think up all the ways that the powers could play out on your own.
That being said, there may come a time where it's worth risking outing yourself to a target you protected just because the reward is worth the risk. You must also keep in mind that just because you tell them that you protected them, they may not necessarily believe you. Yes, there's a big risk for mafia claiming to do so, but again, that risk could be worth the potential gain they'd get if they convinced you. That's what this game is all about.
Be wary of advice given in this thread (or via PM if you've got people talking in your ear). Keep in mind that each player is working towards their own goals.
|
On June 03 2010 22:17 zeks wrote:mayoral campaign post + Show Spoiler +
Hi Town,
I’m running for office! I’ve played mafia a couple of times on TL, 2 years ago and just getting back into it. I’ve been chosen town for all of the times I’ve played – actually for those who remember I always got medic. I will be extremely active for this game thus I would love to have a “role” and be involved in the major conversations of this game.
I acknowledge the fact that people have drawn clues to me – and that my misreading on the DT role makes me somewhat suspicious. I implore you that everything I do is for the greater benefit of the town.
PRELIMINARY PLAN:
The plan that I have is pretty much a rip-off of plans used in past mafia games. With all the finger-pointing going on already, I want to stress that we shouldn’t look too deep into day 1 clues. It provides us with leads and brings people into the spotlight, but what is happening now is that we’re having animosity and confusion in the town. We need trust.
Detectives: Now that I’ve understood that you can use consecutive role checks, I still think you should use them as quickly (or wisely) as possible. In fact, all our DTs should be role checking someone tonight. Assuming we have 2 DTs:
Detective #1 (if you’re numbered somewhere between #1 - #15): do a role-check on someone from #1-#15
Detective #2 (if you’re numbered somewhere between #16-#30): do a role-check on someone from #16-#30
If you check a red, awesome! Keep that in your list, and if he posts keep track of his behavior as well.
If you check a green/blue, you can make the decision whether to start the inner circle with that person. The reason I say that is the green/blue could be the Miller or the Godfather – assuming 2 millers and 1 Godfather, there is a small chance you could be checking one of them. Again, track that person’s behavior and see if there are any strong clues pointing to them…then you can decide whether to engage that person or not to start the inner circle.
Medics: Honestly I don’t have a good plan with them, I’d say protect our best clue analyzers for now until we start verifying everyone.
The detectives are the key to winning this game quickly and safely, so we want to make sure they at least use up all their rolechecks – thus they’d have to be alive by night 4 (if I’m not mistaken).
Also I previous mentioned that we should have someone compile all the clues / accusations…if someone would love to step up that’d be great.
FIRST LYNCH
If elected mayor, I will lynch whoever the town sees fit; I know there’s no formal voting for tonight since the mayor gets the lynch call – but I will do a tally myself and everyone can vote for who they think should be lynched tonight.
If elected pardoner, I would hope that the new mayor will also do a vote for the first lynch. In that case I promise not to pardon the first lynch. I will also make sure in the future to stop nonsense bandwagons.
Well that’s all I have to say for now, I probably missed a couple things and there’s probably a couple flaws in my plan, but I am happy to answer all your questions the best I can. The important thing is more discussion so we can try to close these loopholes and come up with a very good strategy.
First let me address Zeks' DT plan here. This is an ineffective plan. For the sake of argument assume that there are two DTs and they are distributed randomly. It's about 48.3% likely that the two DTs are in the same bracket. If this is the case, there's a solid chance there will be heavy overlap in their investigations. There's also a coin flip's chance that they won't overlap at all.
Compare this to the more basic case of just allowing DTs to investigate as they please. Since they're drawing from the entire pool, there will be a mild chance at overlap in their investigations. Mild overlap is actually perfectly fine since if the two DTs both investigate the same townie, it can link their 'inner circles' so that they can collectively pool information. It's worth noting here that there will also be the risk that if the DT investigates and includes the godfather in their inner circle, they could be fed false information, so DTs should take any info fed back to them with a grain of salt.
Also, Zeks has constantly impressed the DTs use up all their rolechecks as quickly as possible. While I agree that it's crucial that the DTs use up their rolechecks before they die, this doesn't necessarily mean that they have to all be used up by night 4. Having a rolecheck available in the late game when more info comes out (for instance a questionable roleclaim) can seal the deal. Rolechecking random people only gives you a 6/29 chance of hitting someone mafia aligned. Further, hitting millers will make the DT feel like they just got a mafia even though they missed. Strategic rolechecks are worth so much more than random ones.
After pulling out all of the flawed thinking in Zeks' post here, there's not much left! Between this post, his misquote of the rules, and having a clue aimed at him, consider me publicly pointing the finger of suspicion at Zeks. Even if you don't think I'm the best candidate for mayor's office (though I still think I am!), don't vote for this guy.
|
Having the DT's not link circles may be better because if one of them includes the godfather in his/her circle then the both groups would be compromised. As long as the DTs outnumber the godfather at least one circle can be safe.
|
On June 04 2010 01:18 YellowInk wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2010 22:17 zeks wrote:mayoral campaign post + Show Spoiler +
Hi Town,
I’m running for office! I’ve played mafia a couple of times on TL, 2 years ago and just getting back into it. I’ve been chosen town for all of the times I’ve played – actually for those who remember I always got medic. I will be extremely active for this game thus I would love to have a “role” and be involved in the major conversations of this game.
I acknowledge the fact that people have drawn clues to me – and that my misreading on the DT role makes me somewhat suspicious. I implore you that everything I do is for the greater benefit of the town.
PRELIMINARY PLAN:
The plan that I have is pretty much a rip-off of plans used in past mafia games. With all the finger-pointing going on already, I want to stress that we shouldn’t look too deep into day 1 clues. It provides us with leads and brings people into the spotlight, but what is happening now is that we’re having animosity and confusion in the town. We need trust.
Detectives: Now that I’ve understood that you can use consecutive role checks, I still think you should use them as quickly (or wisely) as possible. In fact, all our DTs should be role checking someone tonight. Assuming we have 2 DTs:
Detective #1 (if you’re numbered somewhere between #1 - #15): do a role-check on someone from #1-#15
Detective #2 (if you’re numbered somewhere between #16-#30): do a role-check on someone from #16-#30
If you check a red, awesome! Keep that in your list, and if he posts keep track of his behavior as well.
If you check a green/blue, you can make the decision whether to start the inner circle with that person. The reason I say that is the green/blue could be the Miller or the Godfather – assuming 2 millers and 1 Godfather, there is a small chance you could be checking one of them. Again, track that person’s behavior and see if there are any strong clues pointing to them…then you can decide whether to engage that person or not to start the inner circle.
Medics: Honestly I don’t have a good plan with them, I’d say protect our best clue analyzers for now until we start verifying everyone.
The detectives are the key to winning this game quickly and safely, so we want to make sure they at least use up all their rolechecks – thus they’d have to be alive by night 4 (if I’m not mistaken).
Also I previous mentioned that we should have someone compile all the clues / accusations…if someone would love to step up that’d be great.
FIRST LYNCH
If elected mayor, I will lynch whoever the town sees fit; I know there’s no formal voting for tonight since the mayor gets the lynch call – but I will do a tally myself and everyone can vote for who they think should be lynched tonight.
If elected pardoner, I would hope that the new mayor will also do a vote for the first lynch. In that case I promise not to pardon the first lynch. I will also make sure in the future to stop nonsense bandwagons.
Well that’s all I have to say for now, I probably missed a couple things and there’s probably a couple flaws in my plan, but I am happy to answer all your questions the best I can. The important thing is more discussion so we can try to close these loopholes and come up with a very good strategy.
First let me address Zeks' DT plan here. This is an ineffective plan. For the sake of argument assume that there are two DTs and they are distributed randomly. It's about 48.3% likely that the two DTs are in the same bracket. If this is the case, there's a solid chance there will be heavy overlap in their investigations. There's also a coin flip's chance that they won't overlap at all. Compare this to the more basic case of just allowing DTs to investigate as they please. Since they're drawing from the entire pool, there will be a mild chance at overlap in their investigations. Mild overlap is actually perfectly fine since if the two DTs both investigate the same townie, it can link their 'inner circles' so that they can collectively pool information. It's worth noting here that there will also be the risk that if the DT investigates and includes the godfather in their inner circle, they could be fed false information, so DTs should take any info fed back to them with a grain of salt. Also, Zeks has constantly impressed the DTs use up all their rolechecks as quickly as possible. While I agree that it's crucial that the DTs use up their rolechecks before they die, this doesn't necessarily mean that they have to all be used up by night 4. Having a rolecheck available in the late game when more info comes out (for instance a questionable roleclaim) can seal the deal. Rolechecking random people only gives you a 6/29 chance of hitting someone mafia aligned. Further, hitting millers will make the DT feel like they just got a mafia even though they missed. Strategic rolechecks are worth so much more than random ones. After pulling out all of the flawed thinking in Zeks' post here, there's not much left! Between this post, his misquote of the rules, and having a clue aimed at him, consider me publicly pointing the finger of suspicion at Zeks. Even if you don't think I'm the best candidate for mayor's office (though I still think I am!), don't vote for this guy.
Even if the detectives are in the same bracket, the chance of them both role checking the same guy first night (given that they both picked someone random) is 1/225. I don't see how there is a "solid chance" that there'll be heavy overlap in their investigations.
Of course there is no absolute FOOLPROOF plan I'm just stating a plan that I think is plausible but has a small amount of risk (I'm playing probabilities).
I acknowledged the fact that DTs can somehow land Millers or the GF - which is why I also stated that if DTs land a red, they should take note of their behaviour first, and to keep track of people in a list. The point of the rolecheck is that we have an advantage from the get go regardless of the persons color.
I don't understand how an overlap of investigations can link the DTs together. Perhaps you can explain that further.
You are correct, I did misquote the rule and I apologize for not reading the OP correctly. Also, currently afaik there are two clues against me and I don't think they're any better than the clues we have on other people.
I stated my plan: hopefully we'll hear a more constructive plan from you other than the first one that got dissected quite quickly.
|
Excuse my math: its not 1/225 its actually 1/15*
|
On June 04 2010 01:52 zeks wrote:
I don't understand how an overlap of investigations can link the DTs together. Perhaps you can explain that further.
If two (or more) DTs rolecheck the same person and then pm him/her. That person can then pm each DT letting them know about the other DT.
I stated my plan: hopefully we'll hear a more constructive plan from you other than the first one that got dissected quite quickly.
Yes, I would like to hear the plans of all of the candidates, and all of the "clues" pointing to them.
Just to clarify, there are separate votes for Mayor/pardoner right? Or is it most votes - mayor, 2nd place - pardoner?
|
On June 04 2010 02:04 DCLXVI wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2010 01:52 zeks wrote:
I don't understand how an overlap of investigations can link the DTs together. Perhaps you can explain that further.
If two (or more) DTs rolecheck the same person and then pm him/her. That person can then pm each DT letting them know about the other DT. Show nested quote +I stated my plan: hopefully we'll hear a more constructive plan from you other than the first one that got dissected quite quickly. Yes, I would like to hear the plans of all of the candidates, and all of the "clues" pointing to them. Just to clarify, there are separate votes for Mayor/pardoner right? Or is it most votes - mayor, 2nd place - pardoner?
That DT-linking thing that Ink came up with seems like a good idea.
|
On June 04 2010 02:04 DCLXVI wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2010 01:52 zeks wrote:
I don't understand how an overlap of investigations can link the DTs together. Perhaps you can explain that further.
If two (or more) DTs rolecheck the same person and then pm him/her. That person can then pm each DT letting them know about the other DT. Show nested quote +I stated my plan: hopefully we'll hear a more constructive plan from you other than the first one that got dissected quite quickly. Yes, I would like to hear the plans of all of the candidates, and all of the "clues" pointing to them. Just to clarify, there are separate votes for Mayor/pardoner right? Or is it most votes - mayor, 2nd place - pardoner?
From the OP it seems like whoever comes in 2nd place will be the pardoner.
So far DarthThienAn has 2 votes (himself and LunarDestiny) and he didn't really explain his plans much other than being dedicated to the game and he already got a vote.
Though the vote seemed a bit sympathetic because Lunar said he voted because he got screwed bad last game but is also knowledgeable.
|
YellowInk wrote:
He [crate] later mentions offhand that a medic could block a hit on a mafia, but doesn't clarify that this flaws his original argument.
No, I covered that. There are two groups with kill power: vigilantes, and mafia.
If the medic blocks a vigi hit on a mafia, either the vigi fucked up or the medic did (read my discussion on vigis). This should not happen.
If the medic blocks a mafia hit on another mafioso ... yeah, ok, that works but look at the risk/reward involved. The risk is the mafia hit might not get blocked in which case the mafia sacrifice a mafia member for nothing, and this risk is huge. If we assume that the medics protect at random and we assume 3 medics then it's still more than a 90% chance that the targeted mafia dies.
The mafia have no way of knowing whom the medics are going to protect. Are you seriously suggesting that it's in the mafia's best interests to aim at one of their own on the off-chance that it nets them a medic protection? I'm not even sure it's good for the mafia to target one of their own even if the hit gets blocked; they're still giving up one kill, after all, in exchange for getting a medic to think the targeted mafioso is town-aligned.
There is basically no chance that a medic will block a hit on a mafia unless the town's vigis play very badly. In addition, vigis cannot hit on night 1.
|
Holy balls you guys are verbose. As a first timer who hasn't had time to read previous games, I am unsure how much to weight to give the clues so far given. It seems to point in a couple of directions, and I'm going to shameless copypasta this post because it makes organizing a little easier:
I am most suspicious of Yellowink, for the obvious Ink clue (is this too obvious to be true?), but mostly because of his running for mayor. It is unwise to vote him in, as I'm sure that having a Mafia mayor is basically the worst thing possible. For the same reason, I won't vote for zeks either (I don't recognize the picture, but as I understand it, that's Naruto = ninja = knives clue. Let me know if I'm wrong).
So, given the choices so far, I'm inclined to vote 27_DarthThienAn for mayor.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
