Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 427

On May 11 2023 01:36 Acrofales wrote:
Patriot is a rather old AA system. Meanwhile these hypersonic missiles are supposed to be latest generation missiles, probably designed to outfly/bamboozle Patriot AA (and similar older tech). So Patriot shooting that stuff down is probably going to lead to another round of people somehow falling out of windows?

On May 11 2023 01:36 Acrofales wrote:
Patriot is a rather old AA system. Meanwhile these hypersonic missiles are supposed to be latest generation missiles, probably designed to outfly/bamboozle Patriot AA (and similar older tech). So Patriot shooting that stuff down is probably going to lead to another round of people somehow falling out of windows?

The Biden administration has no plans to follow Britain’s lead in sending long-range missiles to Ukraine — with some officials saying the U.S. is now off the hook thanks to the U.K.’s planned delivery.

London is set to send missiles with a range of 300 km, or nearly 200 miles, The Washington Post’s KAREN DeYOUNG reports. That’s the same range as the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, that Washington has refused to transfer to Kyiv. U.K. Foreign Secretary JAMES CLEVERLY declined to comment on the timing and scale of future commitments during a Tuesday news conference alongside Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN.

But the possibility of British missiles heading to Ukraine has President JOE BIDEN’s team breathing a quiet sigh of relief, according to multiple U.S. officials who spoke to NatSec Daily. They hope it will silence critics who want the U.S. to send ATACMS since Ukraine may soon get the long-range capability from London.

NatSec Daily asked the U.S. officials if the administration might follow Britain’s lead in sending long-range missiles. One official, who like others wasn’t authorized to detail internal deliberations, said “our policy on ATACMS has not changed.” Instead, the official said the U.S. will continue to provide air-defense capabilities like Patriots, ammunition and armored vehicles.

There’s also the matter of the U.S. not having enough ATACMS in the arsenal to spare. “From a military standpoint, we have relatively few ATACMS, we do have to make sure that we maintain our own munitions inventories, as well,” Gen. MARK MILLEY, the Joint Chiefs chair, told Defense One in March.

Another person familiar with the discussions said Britain has told Ukraine the condition for providing long-range missiles is a commitment by Ukraine to use the capability only on targets inside of Ukrainian territory.

That mirrors the same concern the administration has about giving ATACMS to Ukraine. The last thing the White House wants is Ukrainian troops using them to strike deep into Russia.

On May 11 2023 08:07 Ardias wrote:
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/85243

Russian assessment of AFU counteroffensive plans.
Main points:
1. The main direction of offensive is considered to be from Zaporozhine in the direction of Melitopol', with supporting attacks further to the east, to tie up Russian forces from reinforcement, as well as supporting crossings of the Dniepr to the west.
2. Main objective - to cut the land corridor in Crimea, and create the encirclement of the Russian 35th Army defending the Pologi area. Should be noted that "Army" is too big of a name for that unit, which had only 3 line brigades before the war. It's basically a mechanized division with larger support assets.
3. Offensive force is estimated to consist of 13 brigades, of which are 11 line brigades and 2 TDF brigades, plus a bunch of support assets (including at least 1 artillery brigade), separate infantry battalions and spec ops units. Overall estimation on AFU numbers - 50+ thousand men, 230+ tanks, 1100+ IFVs/APCs, 600+ guns, mortars and MLRS.
4. 6 of those brigades are NATO equipped as per leaked documents (of 9 mentioned there), including all 3 "heavy" mechanized brigades (fully/partially armed with proper IFVs, such as Bradley, Marder or BMP-1/2, plus they have 2 artillery battalions instead of one).
5. The breakthrough force estimated to consist of 2 new "heavy" mechanized brigades (65th and 47th) + the veteran 128th Air Assault brigade. 47th is the "Bradley brigade", which was also confirmed by numerous videos, where they are in same line with M-55S (only 47th Mechanized posses them). The exploitation force estimated to consist of 3 lighter armed motorized brigades, with M113 and wheeled APCs. Other forces would be attacking further east, or will try to cross the Dniepr (there was a footage of Ukrainians training for landing operations in large amphibious craft).

Few days ago Russia also started to evacuate civilians from towns and villages from Energodar to Pologi.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US&ll=47.62430231870642,35.97487839256335&z=10
Western OSINT map for the reference.

On May 11 2023 20:07 zatic wrote:

This matches pretty closely Western and OSINT assessments.

Do you have similar info on the Russian side?

The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.

“The UK has previously said that it will supply Ukraine with long-range weapons, this will now include a number of Storm Shadow missiles. The British Government has been clear that this is only in response to Russia’s deliberate targeting of civilian national infrastructure and is a proportionate response,” a Western official told CNN.

The Storm Shadow is a long-range cruise missile with stealth capabilities, jointly developed by the UK and France, which is typically launched from the air. With a firing range in excess of 250km, or 155 miles, it is just short of the 185-mile range capability of the US-made surface-to-surface Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, that Ukraine has long asked for.

Critically, the Storm Shadow has the range to strike deep into Russian-held territory in Eastern Ukraine. A Western official told CNN that the UK has received assurances from the Ukrainian government that these missiles will be used only within Ukrainian sovereign territory and not inside Russia. UK officials have made frequent public statements identifying Crimea as Ukrainian sovereign territory, describing it as “illegally annexed.”

UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace is expected to announce to the House of Commons that the UK is sending Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine.

The missile is “a real game changer from a range perspective,” a senior US military official told CNN and gives Kyiv a capability it has been requesting since the outset of the war. As CNN has reported, Ukraine’s current maximum range on US-provided weapons is around 49 miles.

The deployment of the missiles comes as Ukrainian forces prepare to launch a counteroffensive intended to retake Kremlin-held territory in the eastern and the southern parts of the country.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country still needs “a bit more time” before it launches the counteroffensive, in order to allow some more of the promised Western military aid to arrive in country.

“With [what we have] we can go forward and be successful,” Zelensky told European public service broadcasters in an interview published on Thursday. “But we’d lose a lot of people. I think that’s unacceptable.”

“So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time,” he added. Among the supplies Ukraine is still waiting for are armored vehicles – including tanks – which Zelensky said were “arriving in batches.”

This is not the first time Britain has gone further than the US in the weaponry it has been prepared to send to Ukraine. It was the first ally to announce it was sending modern Western tanks to Ukraine, in January pledging 14 Challenge 2 tanks before the US announced it would contribute M-1 Abrams tanks shortly after.

Earlier this year, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signaled that Britain was considering sending long-range weapons.

“We must help Ukraine to shield its cities from Russian bombs and Iranian drones,” Sunak said at the Munich Security Conference on February 18. “And that’s why the UK will be the first country to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons.”

And earlier this month the British government issued a procurement notice through the International Fund for Ukraine. The notice said the UK was inviting expressions of interest for buying “long-range strike” rockets or missiles by May 4, and potential suppliers would be contacted after a month. The notice stipulated “missiles or rockets with a range 100-300km; land, sea or air launch. Payload 20-490kg.”

US officials have repeatedly emphasized that they will continue supporting Ukraine for “as long as it takes”, and while tens of billions of dollars’ worth of equipment have been provided, the embattled country has continued asking for more to defeat the Russian military, including longer-range missiles such as ATACMS.

However, the US has been cautious over the last year in providing weapons to Ukraine that could help them strike within Russian territory. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl told reporters in August that it is the US assessment Ukraine does not “currently require ATACMS to service targets that are directly relevant to the current fight.”

According to MBDA Missile Systems, the European company which manufactures the missile, the Storm Shadow is a “deep strike weapon” capable of “being operated day and night in all weathers,” that features an advanced navigation system to ensure accuracy.

“After launch, the weapon descends to terrain hugging altitude to avoid detection,” MBDA’s website states. “On approaching the target, its onboard infrared seeker matches the target image with the stored picture to ensure a precision strike and minimal collateral damage.”

On May 11 2023 20:07 zatic wrote:

This matches pretty closely Western and OSINT assessments.

Do you have similar info on the Russian side?

On May 11 2023 04:28 Manit0u wrote:
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1656300615541092354

Warning! Very graphic content. How in the trenches after getting grenaded by a drone Russian soldier commits suicide (not sure if it's because of pain or no hope for rescue).

The amount of footage from this war at the end is going to be insane. Probably the best documented war in history.

On May 12 2023 03:28 Ardias wrote:
https://t.me/sashakots/39713
https://t.me/epoddubny/15910
https://t.me/wargonzo/12459
Multiple Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian counteroffensive has started. Currently AFU reported to attack on several directions:
1) North and south of Bakhmut (probably with attempt to either relieve or even surround it)
2) Into the city of Horlovka/Horlivka, few dozen kilometers south of Bakhmut
3) Activity on the Orekhovo-Hulaypole line in Zaprorzhie region
4) Reportedly vehicle columns, including western-made stuff, are moving from Kharkov to the Russian border in the Belgorod area.