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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 417

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria817 Posts
April 12 2023 16:52 GMT
#8321
Actually Russia being fragmented into several smaller countries is ideal for closest neighbours (e.g. Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Ukraine, etc), so it means less threat for us. The only downside is US will have free reign to do shit like Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, etc. It's all about balance of power. For now, I'm content with Russia not being able to go outside their borders for decades. Whether you count this as "crippling Russia" or not, I really don't know, but it's my honest opinion.
r00ty
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany1050 Posts
April 12 2023 19:16 GMT
#8322
Let's call it a destabilization and loss of influence of the Russian Federation under the Putin regime. Which is bound to happen if Ukraine prevails and it will be beneficial for some coutries/factions and less so for others.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
April 12 2023 19:43 GMT
#8323
--- Nuked ---
Mikau313
Profile Joined January 2021
Netherlands230 Posts
April 13 2023 06:37 GMT
#8324
On April 13 2023 00:54 Magic Powers wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 12 2023 23:05 Mikau313 wrote:
On April 12 2023 19:32 Magic Powers wrote:
On April 12 2023 17:15 Mikau313 wrote:
On April 12 2023 16:52 Magic Powers wrote:
On April 12 2023 16:08 Mikau313 wrote:
And that absolutely doesn't mean that "Ukraine pushes Russia behind it's borders" isn't the end of the story.


Do you even understand what the claim is?


I understand that most of your recent posts here are strawmen, and that I've seen you comment often enough to know that you know that and that you can do far better than that.


Read the following comment from Mohdoo again VERY carefully.

On April 11 2023 06:59 Mohdoo wrote:
On April 10 2023 17:26 Magic Powers wrote:
Also, you don't win a war by being a step behind at all times. Ideally Ukraine would receive more AA than needed. The idea is to win in as many aspects of the war as possible.


Since there are (presumably) a large number of very smart people designing this situation, it feels very unlikely they are missing what appears to be a very obviously better approach.

What I think the is *actual* plan here is to bleed Russia as much as possible by sacrificing as few Ukrainians as possible. But I think bleeding Russia is the primary priority there.

So long as Ukraine does not start to bleed territory beyond short term highs and lows, I think there isn't much reason to worry and we ought to assume the West will try to keep this war pumping for as long as possible.

Similar to how people will choose to invest more into something if it appears the goal is within reach, I think the goal is to keep Russia optimistic enough to continue without Ukraine suffering too much. Since this is a personal ambition of Putin's, he will likely continue to toss bodies at the situation if he feels victory is within reach.

I think the goal here is for Russia to be permanently downgraded to North Korea 2.0. We'll likely never fully neuter Russia, but eliminating it as a ground army threat has huge benefits and sends a signal to China to stop salivating over Taiwan.

The fact is, the US has the capability to wipe out Russia's presence in Crimea at a moment's notice. I don't see a real possibility of Ukraine getting pushed too far back.


There is no strawman on my part. He said what he said, and what I said he's saying is exactly what he was saying.


I responded specifically to this comment:


I don't know what's hard to understand. Ukraine pushes Russia behind its borders, that's the end of the story. Do you wanna invade Russia or what?


Which seems like a total non sequitor to anything anybody said here, and is totally unrelated to the comment by Mohdoo you're now quoting.


Your whole argument with me is a non sequitur, in case you didn't catch that.
I initially responded to Mohdoo, not to you or anyone else. Do you understand better now?


Do you need somebody to explain the nature of discussion on a public forum to you?

If you don't want other people to call out your logical fallacies and bad-faith discussion you can either a) not make those arguments or b) discuss in PM.
pmp10
Profile Joined April 2012
3274 Posts
April 13 2023 06:43 GMT
#8325
Turns out among the leaked US documents there was a projections for the war:

Unfortunately it seems we are heading far more in the direction of a forever-war than a frozen one.
With Europe slowly running out of weaponry and US heading for an election this is not a good news for Ukraine.
sertas
Profile Joined April 2012
Sweden880 Posts
April 13 2023 09:45 GMT
#8326
What? Europe running out of weapons? I don't belivie it. Ukraine will receive the level of help indefinently they've gotten this year and last year I think
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21533 Posts
April 13 2023 09:55 GMT
#8327
The EU has a limited arsenal and ability to produce more. In theory they can certainly run out. But I will put the entire western military industrial complex against Russia in a production race every day of the week.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4705 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-04-13 10:55:26
April 13 2023 10:08 GMT
#8328
Its more "Europe is running out of weapons thats it is willing to give away" rather than "Europe is running out of weapons". Stocks of Soviet made or older equipments are drying out and there is certain level of supplies below which even countries at peace wont go until replacment is bought/made. And building/procuring new military equipment takes a lot of time and resources.

As we get new stuff we will continue to supply Ukraine. Will it be enough? Lets hope so.
Pathetic Greta hater.
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria3734 Posts
April 13 2023 10:42 GMT
#8329
Without a doubt Europe is running out of ammo. But so is Russia. The question if this is a problem for Ukraine's war efforts is entirely relative.
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17237 Posts
April 13 2023 11:34 GMT
#8330
On April 13 2023 19:42 Magic Powers wrote:
Without a doubt Europe is running out of ammo. But so is Russia. The question if this is a problem for Ukraine's war efforts is entirely relative.


Like Silvanel mentioned the EU isn't really running out of ammo. This war definitely drained some of the Central and Eastern European countries of their Soviet era stocks in terms of equipment and ammunition but NATO standard stuff was left mostly untouched since it was incompatible with what Ukrainians were using. Now that Ukraine has more of the NATO equipment they might dip into the EU stocks of ammo for those but the amount of this equipment in Ukraine isn't so large as to really drain the stocks.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 13 2023 12:54 GMT
#8331
What the hell is going on? I'm going to assume this has not stopped Poland, and Germany from manufacturing ammo for Ukraine. As they are the only two European countries so far in the agreement; the third being the US.

France is allegedly blocking an EU decision to finance the supply of ammunition to Ukraine, which requires unanimity among member states.

The decision to finance the supply of ammunition to Ukraine by the European Union was made at the EU summit in March. The €2 billion needed for this purpose are to be provided from the European Peace Facility.

The political agreement reached at the summit, however, has yet to be turned into a legally binding document. Discussions regarding this case are still ongoing.

Of the €2 billion, half is to be used to reimburse supplies of ammunition from member states’ warehouses. Currently, however, there are not enough missiles in these warehouses, which is why the idea of purchasing them from outside the EU has emerged.

"However, this was opposed by France. In this situation, the solution would be to procure ammunition from a third country on a donated basis, and then recover it from the warehouses of a member state by transferring other weapons to the third country. Talks are underway on this matter," an EU source told PAP.

A bigger problem is with the second billion euros, which is to be allocated for joint orders from European industry, i.e. de facto in Poland, France and Germany.

"The French blocked the EU decision on the second billion euros before Christmas. The draft contained a provision that the ammunition was to be reimbursed only on the basis of requests submitted by Ukraine. Paris, however, wants, without explaining why, this provision to be deleted. This would also mean the possibility of refunding ammunition which the Ukrainian side has not asked for. In addition to the decision on ammunition, France wants to add the possibility of compensating for missile deliveries," a senior EU source told PAP.

In the opinion of some diplomats, lobbying by defence companies may be behind France’s decision.

Most EU countries protested against such changes, including Poland.

Poland’s Permanent Representative to the EU, Andrzej Sadoś, pointed out at the ambassadors’ meeting in Brussels that the EU must not waste time and must provide Ukraine with ammunition supplies as soon as possible. Poland also expressed disappointment that the EU could not reach an agreement and indicated that it would be difficult to explain this to Ukrainian partners.

Talks on the matter are expected to resume on Wednesday.

Background: On 20 March, the Council of the European Union approved a plan to supply Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells within 12 months.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
pmp10
Profile Joined April 2012
3274 Posts
April 13 2023 13:08 GMT
#8332
Sounds like a typical EU row over whose industry stands to benefit most.
Happens all the time.
Neneu
Profile Joined September 2010
Norway492 Posts
April 13 2023 13:26 GMT
#8333
On April 13 2023 21:54 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
What the hell is going on? I'm going to assume this has not stopped Poland, and Germany from manufacturing ammo for Ukraine. As they are the only two European countries so far in the agreement; the third being the US.

Show nested quote +
France is allegedly blocking an EU decision to finance the supply of ammunition to Ukraine, which requires unanimity among member states.

The decision to finance the supply of ammunition to Ukraine by the European Union was made at the EU summit in March. The €2 billion needed for this purpose are to be provided from the European Peace Facility.

The political agreement reached at the summit, however, has yet to be turned into a legally binding document. Discussions regarding this case are still ongoing.

Of the €2 billion, half is to be used to reimburse supplies of ammunition from member states’ warehouses. Currently, however, there are not enough missiles in these warehouses, which is why the idea of purchasing them from outside the EU has emerged.

"However, this was opposed by France. In this situation, the solution would be to procure ammunition from a third country on a donated basis, and then recover it from the warehouses of a member state by transferring other weapons to the third country. Talks are underway on this matter," an EU source told PAP.

A bigger problem is with the second billion euros, which is to be allocated for joint orders from European industry, i.e. de facto in Poland, France and Germany.

"The French blocked the EU decision on the second billion euros before Christmas. The draft contained a provision that the ammunition was to be reimbursed only on the basis of requests submitted by Ukraine. Paris, however, wants, without explaining why, this provision to be deleted. This would also mean the possibility of refunding ammunition which the Ukrainian side has not asked for. In addition to the decision on ammunition, France wants to add the possibility of compensating for missile deliveries," a senior EU source told PAP.

In the opinion of some diplomats, lobbying by defence companies may be behind France’s decision.

Most EU countries protested against such changes, including Poland.

Poland’s Permanent Representative to the EU, Andrzej Sadoś, pointed out at the ambassadors’ meeting in Brussels that the EU must not waste time and must provide Ukraine with ammunition supplies as soon as possible. Poland also expressed disappointment that the EU could not reach an agreement and indicated that it would be difficult to explain this to Ukrainian partners.

Talks on the matter are expected to resume on Wednesday.

Background: On 20 March, the Council of the European Union approved a plan to supply Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells within 12 months.


Source

Idk if it is part of this agreement, since I couldn't figure out which one it is, but Norway is still an european country and we donate+produce artillery ammunition for ukraine.
MJG
Profile Joined May 2018
United Kingdom853 Posts
April 13 2023 14:02 GMT
#8334
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65260672

BBC currently reporting on Russian infighting over how death tolls are being calculated.
"I don't like Starcraft 2. I play because it's something I'm good at, it's something I've been involved in for a lot of time, and I like the competition. But I think the game is shit. I don't love it at all." - IdrA
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17237 Posts
April 13 2023 16:15 GMT
#8335
On April 13 2023 22:26 Neneu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2023 21:54 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
What the hell is going on? I'm going to assume this has not stopped Poland, and Germany from manufacturing ammo for Ukraine. As they are the only two European countries so far in the agreement; the third being the US.

France is allegedly blocking an EU decision to finance the supply of ammunition to Ukraine, which requires unanimity among member states.

The decision to finance the supply of ammunition to Ukraine by the European Union was made at the EU summit in March. The €2 billion needed for this purpose are to be provided from the European Peace Facility.

The political agreement reached at the summit, however, has yet to be turned into a legally binding document. Discussions regarding this case are still ongoing.

Of the €2 billion, half is to be used to reimburse supplies of ammunition from member states’ warehouses. Currently, however, there are not enough missiles in these warehouses, which is why the idea of purchasing them from outside the EU has emerged.

"However, this was opposed by France. In this situation, the solution would be to procure ammunition from a third country on a donated basis, and then recover it from the warehouses of a member state by transferring other weapons to the third country. Talks are underway on this matter," an EU source told PAP.

A bigger problem is with the second billion euros, which is to be allocated for joint orders from European industry, i.e. de facto in Poland, France and Germany.

"The French blocked the EU decision on the second billion euros before Christmas. The draft contained a provision that the ammunition was to be reimbursed only on the basis of requests submitted by Ukraine. Paris, however, wants, without explaining why, this provision to be deleted. This would also mean the possibility of refunding ammunition which the Ukrainian side has not asked for. In addition to the decision on ammunition, France wants to add the possibility of compensating for missile deliveries," a senior EU source told PAP.

In the opinion of some diplomats, lobbying by defence companies may be behind France’s decision.

Most EU countries protested against such changes, including Poland.

Poland’s Permanent Representative to the EU, Andrzej Sadoś, pointed out at the ambassadors’ meeting in Brussels that the EU must not waste time and must provide Ukraine with ammunition supplies as soon as possible. Poland also expressed disappointment that the EU could not reach an agreement and indicated that it would be difficult to explain this to Ukrainian partners.

Talks on the matter are expected to resume on Wednesday.

Background: On 20 March, the Council of the European Union approved a plan to supply Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells within 12 months.


Source

Idk if it is part of this agreement, since I couldn't figure out which one it is, but Norway is still an european country and we donate+produce artillery ammunition for ukraine.


I think it's not really a matter of if you can produce and donate ammo to Ukraine but rather if you're going to get paid/reimbursed for it. As usual in history, if there's a problem there's 99.99% chance it's because of money.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
CuddlyCuteKitten
Profile Joined January 2004
Sweden2581 Posts
April 13 2023 19:40 GMT
#8336
There are two agreements.

1 billion for sending shells from storage. This has passed.
1 billion for buying shells. Opposed by France and Greece currently because it would allow buying shells from outside the EU. Probably because Turkey and France produce shells.
Also other versions of the purchase bill discussed but opposed by other countries. It is always a bit complicated when it comes down to a shitton of money.
waaaaaaaaaaaooooow - Felicia, SPF2:T
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5506 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-04-13 19:52:09
April 13 2023 19:46 GMT
#8337
Suspect behind the recent leak arrested:



TLDR: Fucking moron endangering the lives of countless people for internet clout.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42270 Posts
April 13 2023 20:02 GMT
#8338
FBI got to him after the Washington post. Also FBI learned of the leaks months after Minecraft players. This is not a great counterespionage operation, despite their suggestions otherwise.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
r00ty
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany1050 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-04-14 08:11:25
April 13 2023 22:33 GMT
#8339
On April 14 2023 04:40 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
There are two agreements.

1 billion for sending shells from storage. This has passed.
1 billion for buying shells. Opposed by France and Greece currently because it would allow buying shells from outside the EU. Probably because Turkey and France produce shells.
Also other versions of the purchase bill discussed but opposed by other countries. It is always a bit complicated when it comes down to a shitton of money.


35mm ammo for the Gepard AA tank has to be purchased in Switzerland, it's the only producer and Germany doesn't have any left AFAIK. It was already complicated because Switzerland had to disregard a law that forbids them from allowing their military gear to be sent to an active conflict.

It's a defensive weapon system and drone killer, Ukraine needs this. Another dickmove by Macron, he made some weird decisions lately against overall European interest.

Edit: Sorry I was wrong, Rheinmetall is producing the ammunition in Germany since february.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17926 Posts
April 13 2023 22:48 GMT
#8340
On April 14 2023 07:33 r00ty wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 14 2023 04:40 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
There are two agreements.

1 billion for sending shells from storage. This has passed.
1 billion for buying shells. Opposed by France and Greece currently because it would allow buying shells from outside the EU. Probably because Turkey and France produce shells.
Also other versions of the purchase bill discussed but opposed by other countries. It is always a bit complicated when it comes down to a shitton of money.


35mm ammo for the Gepard AA tank has to be purchased in Switzerland, it's the only producer and Germany doesn't have any left AFAIK. It was already complicated because Switzerland had to disregard a law that forbids them from allowing their military gear to be sent to an active conflict.

It's a defensive weapon system and drone killer, Ukraine needs this. Another dickmove by Macron, he made some weird decisions lately against overall European interest.

Defense contracts and agriculture subsidies are the big things France wants from the EU (money-wise). A defense contract worth 1B euros that has very little being spent in France (because there are very few French weapons that are being used in Ukraine), is obviously going to be tricky. That said, it's just a money thing. Promise Macron that France will get to build Italy some submarines or whatever and the whole thing goes away. It's weird that Macron is being stubborn on European defense stuff a day after he campaigned for more European cohesion in foreign policy tho...
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