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On August 01 2024 03:32 pmp10 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2024 01:06 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On July 31 2024 23:56 pmp10 wrote:
The Hezbollah strike was Surprising lenient (at least so far) but assassination in Iran shows that Israel thinks it has escalation dominance.
We will see if serious response happens but either way the cease fire negotiations are not likely to get anywhere soon.
This might be heading to another forever-war.
I don't see how killing a terrorist leader in Iran can even be considered escalation at all. It's an escalation precisely because the man was hosted in Iran. Just how Iranian direct attack on Israel was an escalation. The rules of the game are changing and the future is looking ugly.
When you combine this with Israel making a statement by striking the missile defense systems of their drone factories and their nuclear facilities, I honestly have the opposite perspective.
If Iran can’t defend their most important buildings or their most important people, it means they are entirely vulnerable.
Since we already know the US will help protect Israel, we can safely assume a serious attack will not be successful. If Iran launches a serious attack against Israel, Israel has the capability to kill their leaders and destroy their most precious targets. That’s the most conclusive form of GG possible.
Iran won’t escalate. At best they will do something symbolic. The reality is that Iran has conclusive proof they can’t defend their leaders or their critical buildings. They aren’t suicidal.
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On July 31 2024 13:51 Kreuger wrote:Another one bites the dust. IDF took out Hamas #1 when he visited Teheran. Wonderful news to start this wednesday https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-chief-ismail-haniyeh-killed-iran-hamas-says-statement-2024-07-31/"CAIRO, July 31 (Reuters) - Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the early hours of the morning in Iran, the Palestinian militant group Hamas said on Wednesday, describing the strike as a "severe escalation" that would not achieve its goals. Iran's Revolutionary Guards confirmed the death of Haniyeh, hours after he attended a swearing in ceremony for the country's new president, and said it was investigating.
"Escalation" or not, that asshole deserved it. Rest in piss.
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On August 01 2024 03:57 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
But I also know that there are many people who have a separate scale of escalation for Israel and their enemies where Israel is always supposed to be several steps down on the ladder in order to not be the aggressor.
I don't know about 'steps down' but of course the escalation ladders are different for Israel and Iran.
If Iran launches an assassination in Israel it's an obvious escalation even if that's exactly what Israel has done.
Escalation is about doing things not done before and ignoring enemy 'red lines'.
And Iran claimed that hits on their territory are a red line.
We will see how much they meant it.
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Iran has no grounds to consider this an escalation. They escalated long ago by attacking Israel. Ever since that day, Hamas targets in Iran have been fair game.
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On August 01 2024 08:10 Magic Powers wrote:
Iran has no grounds to consider this an escalation. They escalated long ago by attacking Israel. Ever since that day, Hamas targets in Iran have been fair game.
Do you mean via proxy with Oct 7th or the missile attack a while back that was itself an escalation?
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On August 01 2024 19:46 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2024 08:10 Magic Powers wrote:
Iran has no grounds to consider this an escalation. They escalated long ago by attacking Israel. Ever since that day, Hamas targets in Iran have been fair game. Do you mean via proxy with Oct 7th or the missile attack a while back that was itself an escalation?
Yeah I meant the missile attack which was an act of war. Israel can't escalate beyond that, Iran has made itself fair game. Israel is actually holding back and neither Hamas nor Iran have a right to complain. They can ask for forgiveness, but nothing more.
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Interesting concept, this "right to complain". I can't remember anyone complaining, in the history of humanity, that cared about whether they had the right to complain or not.
If I had to guess I'm pretty sure "having better weapons" is a much larger part of obtaining the right to complain or not than actual legitimacy.
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On August 01 2024 21:20 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2024 19:46 Gahlo wrote:On August 01 2024 08:10 Magic Powers wrote:
Iran has no grounds to consider this an escalation. They escalated long ago by attacking Israel. Ever since that day, Hamas targets in Iran have been fair game. Do you mean via proxy with Oct 7th or the missile attack a while back that was itself an escalation? Yeah I meant the missile attack which was an act of war. Israel can't escalate beyond that, Iran has made itself fair game. Israel is actually holding back and neither Hamas nor Iran have a right to complain. They can ask for forgiveness, but nothing more.
The missile attack was already an escalation from Israel blowing up... I believe it was a consulate? It was a proportional response. The "score" was settled. Now it isn't.
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On August 02 2024 01:26 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2024 21:20 Magic Powers wrote:On August 01 2024 19:46 Gahlo wrote:On August 01 2024 08:10 Magic Powers wrote:
Iran has no grounds to consider this an escalation. They escalated long ago by attacking Israel. Ever since that day, Hamas targets in Iran have been fair game. Do you mean via proxy with Oct 7th or the missile attack a while back that was itself an escalation? Yeah I meant the missile attack which was an act of war. Israel can't escalate beyond that, Iran has made itself fair game. Israel is actually holding back and neither Hamas nor Iran have a right to complain. They can ask for forgiveness, but nothing more. The missile attack was already an escalation from Israel blowing up... I believe it was a consulate? It was a proportional response. The "score" was settled. Now it isn't.
In the tit-for-tat game of intranational conflicts the "score" is one thing and that was settled.
But how they do it is almost more important. Iran moved that goalpost on their own. I think everyone, Israel included, expects them to retaliate in some way for this to "even" the score again.
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On August 02 2024 01:26 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2024 21:20 Magic Powers wrote:On August 01 2024 19:46 Gahlo wrote:On August 01 2024 08:10 Magic Powers wrote:
Iran has no grounds to consider this an escalation. They escalated long ago by attacking Israel. Ever since that day, Hamas targets in Iran have been fair game. Do you mean via proxy with Oct 7th or the missile attack a while back that was itself an escalation? Yeah I meant the missile attack which was an act of war. Israel can't escalate beyond that, Iran has made itself fair game. Israel is actually holding back and neither Hamas nor Iran have a right to complain. They can ask for forgiveness, but nothing more. The missile attack was already an escalation from Israel blowing up... I believe it was a consulate? It was a proportional response. The "score" was settled. Now it isn't.
A proportional response is sending hundreds of missiles? Since when?
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ICC and ICJ pressure has gotten Israel to admit to torture and sexual abuse of Palestinians innocent of any crime, held without trial or conviction.
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On August 02 2024 10:02 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2024 01:26 Gahlo wrote:On August 01 2024 21:20 Magic Powers wrote:On August 01 2024 19:46 Gahlo wrote:On August 01 2024 08:10 Magic Powers wrote:
Iran has no grounds to consider this an escalation. They escalated long ago by attacking Israel. Ever since that day, Hamas targets in Iran have been fair game. Do you mean via proxy with Oct 7th or the missile attack a while back that was itself an escalation? Yeah I meant the missile attack which was an act of war. Israel can't escalate beyond that, Iran has made itself fair game. Israel is actually holding back and neither Hamas nor Iran have a right to complain. They can ask for forgiveness, but nothing more. The missile attack was already an escalation from Israel blowing up... I believe it was a consulate? It was a proportional response. The "score" was settled. Now it isn't. A proportional response is sending hundreds of missiles? Since when?
The attack they told them about days in advance, carried out in a way to provide ample time to notice where the missiles were coming from, aimed entirely at military targets, against the country best equipped to repel an attack of that type and size?
Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's equivalent to, out of the blue, blowing up a consulate in a 3rd party's country. Do you have amnesia? We, collectively, talked about it at the time.
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On August 02 2024 10:12 Cricketer12 wrote:
ICC and ICJ pressure has gotten Israel to admit to torture and sexual abuse of Palestinians innocent of any crime, held without trial or conviction.
Wait where?
Do you have an article for this? While it's clear at this point that it happens, an admission is... quite something.
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On August 02 2024 10:56 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2024 10:02 Magic Powers wrote:On August 02 2024 01:26 Gahlo wrote:On August 01 2024 21:20 Magic Powers wrote:On August 01 2024 19:46 Gahlo wrote:On August 01 2024 08:10 Magic Powers wrote:
Iran has no grounds to consider this an escalation. They escalated long ago by attacking Israel. Ever since that day, Hamas targets in Iran have been fair game. Do you mean via proxy with Oct 7th or the missile attack a while back that was itself an escalation? Yeah I meant the missile attack which was an act of war. Israel can't escalate beyond that, Iran has made itself fair game. Israel is actually holding back and neither Hamas nor Iran have a right to complain. They can ask for forgiveness, but nothing more. The missile attack was already an escalation from Israel blowing up... I believe it was a consulate? It was a proportional response. The "score" was settled. Now it isn't. A proportional response is sending hundreds of missiles? Since when? The attack they told them about days in advance, carried out in a way to provide ample time to notice where the missiles were coming from, aimed entirely at military targets, against the country best equipped to repel an attack of that type and size? Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's equivalent to, out of the blue, blowing up a consulate in a 3rd party's country. Do you have amnesia? We, collectively, talked about it at the time.
I do remember, and I don't remember anyone arguing it was a proportionate response.
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On August 02 2024 10:12 Cricketer12 wrote:
ICC and ICJ pressure has gotten Israel to admit to torture and sexual abuse of Palestinians innocent of any crime, held without trial or conviction.
I mean, israeli people and their supporter don't hide the fact they find appealing the idea of sticking long rods in the rectum of prisoners.
They did it massively during their invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and things have only gotten worse.
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Whoever is responding, the whole "proportionate" thing is not a reasonable consideration. The whole idea is that nations want to do everything they can to discourage future attacks. Disproportionate attacks are how you do that. Its important for your enemy to feel like it is a terrible idea to attack you. That's basically how MAD works for nuclear powers. The ideal scenario is for Iran and Israel to decide their conflict is a net negative. In a perfect world, they would both be terrified of war with each other and seek peace.
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https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-813088
"The Hamas-affiliated Safa News Agency reported that among those killed in the strike was Sheikh Haitham Balidi, a leader of Tulkarm's Izzadin al-Qassam Brigades."
Another one, must be a nervous place for the one filling his shoes, leaders are beeing taken off the board really well
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2yylgze4ro
srael’s leading human rights organisation says conditions inside Israeli prisons holding Palestinian detainees amount to torture.
B’tselem’s report entitled “Welcome to Hell”, external, contains testimony from 55 recently released Palestinian detainees, whose graphic testimony points to a dramatic worsening of conditions inside prisons since the start of the Gaza war 10 months ago.
It's the latest in a series of reports, including one last week by the UN, which contain shocking allegations of abuse directed against Palestinian prisoners.
B’tselem says the testimony their researchers have gathered is remarkably consistent.
“All of them again and again, told us the same thing,” says Yuli Novak, B’tselem’s executive director.
“Ongoing abuse, daily violence, physical violence and mental violence, humiliation, sleep deprivation, people are starved.”
Ms Novak’s conclusion is stark.
“The Israeli prison system as a whole, in regard to Palestinians, turned into a network of torture camps.”
The way Israel has conducted this war from the beginning only had a paper thin membrane of civility among those who choose to manifest it.
It won't last long as more comes out.
"A network of torture camps"
Horrendous.
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Isn't it to be expected though? Torturing prisoners, I mean. I thought it's the default attitude to POW to be tortured to some extent. I don't condone it, by no means, I'm just not astonished that it occurs.
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On August 06 2024 21:31 JoinTheRain wrote:
Isn't it to be expected though? Torturing prisoners, I mean. I thought it's the default attitude to POW to be tortured to some extent. I don't condone it, by no means, I'm just not astonished that it occurs.
The government of Israel will rarely do something unexpected, as a general rule fascists aren't known for their imagination.
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EPT
