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On May 15 2021 17:57 Silvanel wrote:
In Poland so far the only governemnt mandated advantage of being vaccinated is that You do not count towards event limits. So for example if it says that You can have a maximum of 50 people at wedding what it realy means 50 unvaccinated people + any number of vaccinated.
Second day after receiving vaccine - the only sideeffect is minor pain in my arm. I am avoding exhausting activities and trying to not stress my body.
I feel there is a huge problem in reducing restrictions on vaccinated people while simultaneously restricting vaccinations to specific age groups or professions.
You can do one or the other, but if you do both, you risk mass disobedience by people who would want to be vaccinated but can't be, and are now being restricted from reaping the "rewards" from being vaccinated.
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On May 15 2021 19:04 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2021 17:57 Silvanel wrote:
In Poland so far the only governemnt mandated advantage of being vaccinated is that You do not count towards event limits. So for example if it says that You can have a maximum of 50 people at wedding what it realy means 50 unvaccinated people + any number of vaccinated.
Second day after receiving vaccine - the only sideeffect is minor pain in my arm. I am avoding exhausting activities and trying to not stress my body. I feel there is a huge problem in reducing restrictions on vaccinated people while simultaneously restricting vaccinations to specific age groups or professions.
There are currently no restrictions in Poland regarding vaccination, anyone can get vaccinated (bar the medical reasons). Wait time is around 1-2 weeks for Pfizer/Moderna and 1-2 days for AZ. A little bit longer if You dont have ability to travel.
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Thanks! 200 daily cases with a population of 24 million is still really nothing, but they are lagging behind in vaccines and have no immunity from previous waves. I will follow their numbers as part of my routine.
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On May 17 2021 02:33 Slydie wrote:Thanks! 200 daily cases with a population of 24 million is still really nothing, but they are lagging behind in vaccines and have no immunity from previous waves. I will follow their numbers as part of my routine.
I've been following that region's news because I have family/friends in the area. The biggest issue is they've done so well with soft lockdowns/masking/social distancing that they have been in no rush to vaccinate. They have the AZ vaccine but most people are holding out for the better Pfizer/Moderna/future ones. Poorer Southeast Asian countries have much higher vaccination rates than Taiwan. South Korea and Japan are kinda in the same boat with low vaccination rates as well but neither country is as bad as Taiwan.
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2 months later and Texas had its first day with 0 COVID deaths since the pandemic began. I guess the health experts were once again wrong about my implausible theory.
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On May 18 2021 06:37 JimmiC wrote:
When did Texas have 0 deaths? I read they reported 3 on Sunday, which is pretty amazing, but I have not seen 0. They also have already reported 20 today? They have been steadily decreasing in deaths and are only averaging 40 per day. Mind you that is how Canada is currently preforming and we don't feel real good about it, and have 8 million more people. You seem to have a much stronger stomach for preventable deaths then us.
I wonder if the major Texas cities are going to remove their mask mandates or not? I've been laughing at all the facebook people putting all their masks don't work look at Texas meme's without realizing that the most populous areas of kept them on. With the new CDC ruling and the vaccinations rising though that should also change soon.
40 deaths per day in a state of 29 million people is probably about what'd you see in an average influenza season. Show me some posts you've made on the internet where you care about those preventable deaths from any of the past 10 flu seasons. The fact that you only now care about 40 preventable deaths a day even though it happens every single year says nothing about your "stomach" and everything about how you can be manipulated.
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On May 18 2021 08:37 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2021 08:09 BlackJack wrote:On May 18 2021 06:37 JimmiC wrote:
When did Texas have 0 deaths? I read they reported 3 on Sunday, which is pretty amazing, but I have not seen 0. They also have already reported 20 today? They have been steadily decreasing in deaths and are only averaging 40 per day. Mind you that is how Canada is currently preforming and we don't feel real good about it, and have 8 million more people. You seem to have a much stronger stomach for preventable deaths then us.
I wonder if the major Texas cities are going to remove their mask mandates or not? I've been laughing at all the facebook people putting all their masks don't work look at Texas meme's without realizing that the most populous areas of kept them on. With the new CDC ruling and the vaccinations rising though that should also change soon. 40 deaths per day in a state of 29 million people is probably about what'd you see in an average influenza season. Show me some posts you've made on the internet where you care about those preventable deaths from any of the past 10 flu seasons. The fact that you only now care about 40 preventable deaths a day even though it happens every single year says nothing about your "stomach" and everything about how you can be manipulated. I'm not sure how that is related to anything I said, but you can actually look that up. Texas has around 3k per year (2016 2860, 2017 2954, 2018 3516, 2019 3158 which is around 8 per day so now is about 5x higher. If you would prefer to take the highest one its 9 and half deaths per day. Are we going back to Covid is just like the flu while we have what is going on in India? I'm really not sure what your point is.
I have news for you - the flu season isn't year round. I said 40 deaths per day is what you would see IN an average flu season. In January/February you can easily see 40 deaths/day in a state the size of Texas. Now show me any time when you gave two shits about mitigating flu deaths during January/February. Or was your stomach for preventable deaths stronger during every single flu season?
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The fact that you only now care about 40 preventable deaths a day even though it happens every single year says nothing about your "stomach" and everything about how you can be manipulated.
I can't make my point any clearer than that, but it's really a minor detail. My main point was to come back to gloat about how my "theory" was right and the health experts were wrong to "sound warnings" for Texas's reopening
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Even though I don't like to admit this, I don't think we're already at the point that Texas can be used as an example of a success story.
For comparison, India had begun reopening in stages since Mid April 2020 - with the tightest restrictions no longer being enforced nationwide, but only in "red zones". That's the reason why their numbers kept declining for a long time despite many parts of the countries being less restricted. They've continuously reopened and eventually allowed for free travel, despite not having defeated the virus in their red zones. That backfired very hard and soon they experienced their worst outbreak to date.
Austria reopened a few months ago and almost immediately cases started to surge again, forcing us right back into another strict lockdown that's supposed to end tomorrow. This lockdown had huge success.
The story in Texas is not over yet. Their situation has been different, but we're also seeing numbers not decline anywhere near as fast as they do in countries like the UK who's lockdown has been going on for about 20 weeks if I'm not mistaken.
What's most interesting to me are the past two weeks, with numbers in Texas dropping quite rapidly. That to me came unexpectedly, because it looked to me like the decline had fizzled out and I was afraid of another wave. The opposite happened though, which is of course cause for celebration. But it's also very confusing, because it doesn't seem to follow the known trends. That gives me cause for concern, because not understanding why Texas is currently having success is a problem of its own. It might be due to a combination of factors that are currently unknown to me. Knowing those factors could help us in the fight against the virus.
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I don't see it as a mystery for why Texas is doing well. They have far more natural immunity and vaccine immunity than India or Austria. For reference this was my so-called theory from a couple months ago that was implausible per the health experts according to JimmiC.
On March 03 2021 08:41 BlackJack wrote:
The more important question isn't whether we will have herd immunity, it's whether the hospitals will get overrun. 10-20% vaccinated could make all the difference in the world if it's mostly the 65+ year olds that get the sickest from COVID-19. We're vaccinating well over 1MM people a day now and I think that's expected to get even higher. It's also worth mentioning that flu season is basically over now. When you add up all the mitigating factors against COVID-19, i.e. millions vaccinated + millions already infected + social distancing - no flu this year, it's plausible that the impact of COVID-19 going forward could just be as bad as a bad flu season.
I bolded that last part to show that I didn't say COVID deaths would be 0, but that they would be similar to a bad flu season which is just about spot on.
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On May 18 2021 12:25 BlackJack wrote:
I don't see it as a mystery for why Texas is doing well. They have far more natural immunity and vaccine immunity than [...] Austria.
I'd like to see a citation for that, because this contradicts my knowledge. Compared to India, yes. Compared to Austria, not that I'm aware. Texas sat at roughly 30% vaccinated the last time I checked, Austria is currently at 33%. That Texans have more natural immunity also isn't something that I've heard from anywhere.
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On May 18 2021 12:53 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2021 12:25 BlackJack wrote:
I don't see it as a mystery for why Texas is doing well. They have far more natural immunity and vaccine immunity than [...] Austria. I'd like to see a citation for that, because this contradicts my knowledge. Compared to India, yes. Compared to Austria, not that I'm aware. Texas sat at roughly 30% vaccinated the last time I checked, Austria is currently at 33%. That Texans have more natural immunity also isn't something that I've heard from anywhere.
Yes but you are referencing a surge Austria supposedly had 3 months ago when they reopened. What was the vaccination rate in Austria then?
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On May 18 2021 16:16 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2021 12:53 Magic Powers wrote:On May 18 2021 12:25 BlackJack wrote:
I don't see it as a mystery for why Texas is doing well. They have far more natural immunity and vaccine immunity than [...] Austria. I'd like to see a citation for that, because this contradicts my knowledge. Compared to India, yes. Compared to Austria, not that I'm aware. Texas sat at roughly 30% vaccinated the last time I checked, Austria is currently at 33%. That Texans have more natural immunity also isn't something that I've heard from anywhere. Yes but you are referencing a surge Austria supposedly had 3 months ago when they reopened. What was the vaccination rate in Austria then?
"Supposedly"? It was definitively soon after we reopened, a very clear correlation.
We had administered vaccines mainly to the high risk groups during that time, it was the early stage of mass vaccination.
I'm hoping for evidence that shows Austrians having been significantly more vulnerable to the virus than Texans, because I really don't see it. The exact same goes for Switzerland by the way. And Germany I guess, too.
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There could be very different strains and mutations in both locations. Also differences in climate/ temperature and people per m². Or a combination of all
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On May 18 2021 16:59 Harris1st wrote:
There could be very different strains and mutations in both locations. Also differences in climate/ temperature and people per m². Or a combination of all
We saw last year that temperature does play a big role. Not as much as it does for flu, but definitely significant. Austria and Switzerland are moderately cold, landlocked countries as well as quite high average altitude. Texas is vast and more difficult to classify, but is part desert, part Caribbean coast and part plains at a far lower latitude than Austria (about 15 degrees closer to the equator). Climate could definitely be a major factor in differences. Also, I think Austria got a bad case of the UK variant. I am not sure whether Texas had to deal with any of the new strains.
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EPT
