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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
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On May 18 2021 16:30 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2021 16:16 BlackJack wrote:On May 18 2021 12:53 Magic Powers wrote:On May 18 2021 12:25 BlackJack wrote:
I don't see it as a mystery for why Texas is doing well. They have far more natural immunity and vaccine immunity than [...] Austria. I'd like to see a citation for that, because this contradicts my knowledge. Compared to India, yes. Compared to Austria, not that I'm aware. Texas sat at roughly 30% vaccinated the last time I checked, Austria is currently at 33%. That Texans have more natural immunity also isn't something that I've heard from anywhere. Yes but you are referencing a surge Austria supposedly had 3 months ago when they reopened. What was the vaccination rate in Austria then? "Supposedly"? It was definitively soon after we reopened, a very clear correlation. We had administered vaccines mainly to the high risk groups during that time, it was the early stage of mass vaccination. I'm hoping for evidence that shows Austrians having been significantly more vulnerable to the virus than Texans, because I really don't see it. The exact same goes for Switzerland by the way. And Germany I guess, too.
So what is the mystery then? If it was 3 months ago Austria had 2-3% vaccinated and the vaccination was in the early stages. When Texas "fully" reopened they were at 15-20% vaccinated with vaccination sites running at full-scale. per Worldometers Total cases for Texas is 100k per million and total cases for Austria is 70k per million. So more natural immunity and more vaccine immunity. Not to mention the myriad of other variables people have put forth.
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On May 18 2021 18:57 BlackJack wrote:
So what is the mystery then? If it was 3 months ago Austria had 2-3% vaccinated and the vaccination was in the early stages. When Texas "fully" reopened they were at 15-20% vaccinated with vaccination sites running at full-scale. per Worldometers Total cases for Texas is 100k per million and total cases for Austria is 70k per million. So more natural immunity and more vaccine immunity. Not to mention the myriad of other variables people have put forth.
Vaccines are not a wonder drug that guarantees the preventation of an outbreak all by itself. A very large percentage of the population must receive a dose, and that's also not a guarantee.
Every single one of the countries that have successfully combatted the pandemic have enacted strict lockdowns, including the ones with a large and fast distribution of vaccines. The correlation between lockdowns (i.e. social distancing) and reduced infection rates far surpasses the correlation of vaccines.
There are many examples supporting that observation. Chile was one of the first countries to vaccinate a large percentage of its population, but unexpectedly infections kept rising in spite of that. Only in combination with a lockdown were they able to reverse the trend and bring down infections. The UK and Israel also didn't bring down infections by use of vaccines alone, they both imposed strict lockdowns.
Texas is an outlier between all known examples and it's important to keep this in mind and not get careless. We can't use an outlier and claim it can be used as the rule, unless we know that the trend will continue and we also have a solid explanation for our observation.
Edit: I also just found this tracker for the vaccination progress in Texas. It shows that in Februrary the portion of vaccinated people went from ~7% to ~13%. This is a far cry from the 15-20% that you posted, and although it's still a significant portion of people, it would hardly be expected to have such a herd immunity effect that would explain the observed infection rates.
https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/texas/48/
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On May 18 2021 19:17 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2021 18:57 BlackJack wrote:
So what is the mystery then? If it was 3 months ago Austria had 2-3% vaccinated and the vaccination was in the early stages. When Texas "fully" reopened they were at 15-20% vaccinated with vaccination sites running at full-scale. per Worldometers Total cases for Texas is 100k per million and total cases for Austria is 70k per million. So more natural immunity and more vaccine immunity. Not to mention the myriad of other variables people have put forth. Vaccines are not a wonder drug that guarantees the preventation of an outbreak all by itself. A very large percentage of the population must receive a dose, and that's also not a guarantee. Every single one of the countries that have successfully combatted the pandemic have enacted strict lockdowns, including the ones with a large and fast distribution of vaccines. The correlation between lockdowns (i.e. social distancing) and reduced infection rates far surpasses the correlation of vaccines. There are many examples supporting that observation. Chile was one of the first countries to vaccinate a large percentage of its population, but unexpectedly infections kept rising in spite of that. Only in combination with a lockdown were they able to reverse the trend and bring down infections. The UK and Israel also didn't bring down infections by use of vaccines alone, they both imposed strict lockdowns. Texas is an outlier between all known examples and it's important to keep this in mind and not get careless. We can't use an outlier and claim it can be used as the rule, unless we know that the trend will continue and we also have a solid explanation for our observation. Edit: I also just found this tracker for the vaccination progress in Texas. It shows that in Februrary the portion of vaccinated people went from ~7% to ~13%. This is a far cry from the 15-20% that you posted, and although it's still a significant portion of people, it would hardly be expected to have such a herd immunity effect that would explain the observed infection rates. https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/texas/48/
Texas Governor Abbott's order to reopen Texas was in early March. 14% of the state had received at least 1 shot and it would be 25% before the end of the month. Not a "far cry" from the 15-20% I posted.
Texas is not an outlier. Look at Florida, they quit on COVID as well. They held the superbowl there. Last month they had a UFC event with 15,000+ people packed into an arena at 100% capacity. Same story here in California as we have continued to reopen (slowly). Our 7 day average deaths stands at 0.1 per 100k right now. So I really have no idea what you're talking about with Texas being an outlier.
Also I don't know why I have to write this but Chile relied heavily on the Chinese Sinovac vaccine which has been demonstrably less effective than Pfizer/Moderna. It's not another mystery why they fared worse than Texas. I'd bet you already knew this when you were formulating that argument though...
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On May 18 2021 19:58 BlackJack wrote:Texas Governor Abbott's order to reopen Texas was in early March. 14% of the state had received at least 1 shot and it would be 25% before the end of the month. Not a "far cry" from the 15-20% I posted. Texas is not an outlier. Look at Florida, they quit on COVID as well. They held the superbowl there. Last month they had a UFC event with 15,000+ people packed into an arena at 100% capacity. Same story here in California as we have continued to reopen (slowly). Our 7 day average deaths stands at 0.1 per 100k right now. So I really have no idea what you're talking about with Texas being an outlier. Also I don't know why I have to write this but Chile relied heavily on the Chinese Sinovac vaccine which has been demonstrably less effective than Pfizer/Moderna. It's not another mystery why they fared worse than Texas. I'd bet you already knew this when you were formulating that argument though...
Florida had a stay-at-home order until April 30th and partial restrictions on restaurants. We can't say that they were following Texas' example.
https://eu.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/
California hasn't opened up since March 19th. You can find a recent map here (only yellow regions can mostly reopen):
https://abc7news.com/california-stay-at-home-regions-covid-icu-capacity-shelter-in-place-bay-area-lockdown/6393906/
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Texas has had significantly higher infection and death rate than Austria. Could well play a role in this equation, too.
Anyway, I'm just happy that things in most parts of the world are looking better and better.
I'm getting my shot tomorrow as well. Wish me luck 
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On May 18 2021 20:22 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2021 19:58 BlackJack wrote:Texas Governor Abbott's order to reopen Texas was in early March. 14% of the state had received at least 1 shot and it would be 25% before the end of the month. Not a "far cry" from the 15-20% I posted. Texas is not an outlier. Look at Florida, they quit on COVID as well. They held the superbowl there. Last month they had a UFC event with 15,000+ people packed into an arena at 100% capacity. Same story here in California as we have continued to reopen (slowly). Our 7 day average deaths stands at 0.1 per 100k right now. So I really have no idea what you're talking about with Texas being an outlier. Also I don't know why I have to write this but Chile relied heavily on the Chinese Sinovac vaccine which has been demonstrably less effective than Pfizer/Moderna. It's not another mystery why they fared worse than Texas. I'd bet you already knew this when you were formulating that argument though... Florida had a stay-at-home order until April 30th and partial restrictions on restaurants. We can't say that they were following Texas' example. https://eu.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/California hasn't opened up since March 19th. You can find a recent map here (only yellow regions can mostly reopen): https://abc7news.com/california-stay-at-home-regions-covid-icu-capacity-shelter-in-place-bay-area-lockdown/6393906/
Looking at that map is misleading. Los Angeles county is yellow and that is a huge chunk of the population. Even the oranges aren't that restrictive anymore since they allow indoor dining at 50% capacity.
We've had indoor restaurant dining open here where I am in California since mid-March but at reduced capacity. Two months later, some of the restaurants I visit aren't open to indoor dining yet and some have only recently reopened. It's like the mask mandates. Western countries aren't ruled by the CCP. Not everybody complies with mask mandates. Conversely, the people wearing them don't suddenly stop just because the mandates have been lifted.
I looked at Texas' vaccination rates. https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVID-19VaccineinTexasDashboard/Summary?:origin=card_share_link&:embed=y&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y It's actually not that bad. 78% of people 65+ have one dose and 67% are fully vaccinated. So old people are on the herd immunity threshold already. 49% of people 12+ have one dose and 39% are fully vaccinated. The numbers are a little lower since 12-17 year olds are included in the count now and they've only been approved recently.
Another thing to keep in mind is that almost all the US vaccinations have been done with either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, which are the most effective we have.
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On May 18 2021 05:21 andrewlt wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2021 02:33 Slydie wrote:Thanks! 200 daily cases with a population of 24 million is still really nothing, but they are lagging behind in vaccines and have no immunity from previous waves. I will follow their numbers as part of my routine. I've been following that region's news because I have family/friends in the area. The biggest issue is they've done so well with soft lockdowns/masking/social distancing that they have been in no rush to vaccinate. They have the AZ vaccine but most people are holding out for the better Pfizer/Moderna/future ones. Poorer Southeast Asian countries have much higher vaccination rates than Taiwan. South Korea and Japan are kinda in the same boat with low vaccination rates as well but neither country is as bad as Taiwan.
"Soft lockdowns/masking/social distancing" you say? Why do you always skip the obviously most important part of preventing outbreaks?
For Taiwan, it was
1: Being an island, and most other islands did very well, including Spanish ones.
2: An extremely strict regimen for entering the country.
3: Massive testing and tracking.
Sure, they wore masks and all that, but how many cases did it really prevent?
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I'm now first dosed with Pfizer.
From the information we've got in BC, protection begins around day 10, and rapidly increases up to day 21 or so, and there's incremental improvements from there.
I'm largely home free in June now it seems, so I'd good for summer
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/is7FFfc.png)
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On May 19 2021 03:24 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2021 05:21 andrewlt wrote:On May 17 2021 02:33 Slydie wrote:Thanks! 200 daily cases with a population of 24 million is still really nothing, but they are lagging behind in vaccines and have no immunity from previous waves. I will follow their numbers as part of my routine. I've been following that region's news because I have family/friends in the area. The biggest issue is they've done so well with soft lockdowns/masking/social distancing that they have been in no rush to vaccinate. They have the AZ vaccine but most people are holding out for the better Pfizer/Moderna/future ones. Poorer Southeast Asian countries have much higher vaccination rates than Taiwan. South Korea and Japan are kinda in the same boat with low vaccination rates as well but neither country is as bad as Taiwan. "Soft lockdowns/masking/social distancing" you say? Why do you always skip the obviously most important part of preventing outbreaks? For Taiwan, it was 1: Being an island, and most other islands did very well, including Spanish ones. 2: An extremely strict regimen for entering the country. 3: Massive testing and tracking. Sure, they wore masks and all that, but how many cases did it really prevent?
Who knows? It's impossible to tell which measure prevented cases vis a vis other measures with any degree of certainty. Besides, just about everything in that region south and east of China is an island. Can't really compare islands like Taiwan with small islands that are tourist destinations. Taiwan's population is bigger than many European countries.
The virus had already started spreading in other countries before China locked down Wuhan. Banning inbound flights doesn't prevent an outbreak that is already there. Other countries have been unable to get the virus in check before mass vaccination programs. Taiwan didn't have the luxury of being a far away island considering how close they are to Wuhan.
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I’m curious what people’s stance here are on continuing to wear masks (out of the daily norm) after being fully vaccinated?
I’m someone who doesn’t care either way. I’ll remain compliant as long as our local government or businesses still requires us to do so.
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For the foreseeable future, I will wear a mask whenever I am in indoors, public situations.
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I'll wear a mask only when I'm required to - an increasingly sparse portion of the time as mask mandates loosen.
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I'll continue to wear a mask at any indoor public space unless the business makes it clear that masks are optional. Wearing a mask is no big deal to me and employees of businesses put up with enough shit without having to enforce mask policies on top of it. I'm going to vegas in July and the casinos have made mask wearing optional for vaccinated folks so I probably won't wear one there.
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On May 18 2021 20:22 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2021 19:58 BlackJack wrote:Texas Governor Abbott's order to reopen Texas was in early March. 14% of the state had received at least 1 shot and it would be 25% before the end of the month. Not a "far cry" from the 15-20% I posted. Texas is not an outlier. Look at Florida, they quit on COVID as well. They held the superbowl there. Last month they had a UFC event with 15,000+ people packed into an arena at 100% capacity. Same story here in California as we have continued to reopen (slowly). Our 7 day average deaths stands at 0.1 per 100k right now. So I really have no idea what you're talking about with Texas being an outlier. Also I don't know why I have to write this but Chile relied heavily on the Chinese Sinovac vaccine which has been demonstrably less effective than Pfizer/Moderna. It's not another mystery why they fared worse than Texas. I'd bet you already knew this when you were formulating that argument though... Florida had a stay-at-home order until April 30th and partial restrictions on restaurants. We can't say that they were following Texas' example. https://eu.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/California hasn't opened up since March 19th. You can find a recent map here (only yellow regions can mostly reopen): https://abc7news.com/california-stay-at-home-regions-covid-icu-capacity-shelter-in-place-bay-area-lockdown/6393906/
You are misreading your source.
Stay-at-home order: Started March 20, 2020; ended on April 30, 2020
That stay-at-home order is from last year. If it was this year then they would be really bad at following it since they packed a 15,000 capacity arena to the brim in April.
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On May 19 2021 05:12 andrewlt wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2021 03:24 Slydie wrote:On May 18 2021 05:21 andrewlt wrote:On May 17 2021 02:33 Slydie wrote:Thanks! 200 daily cases with a population of 24 million is still really nothing, but they are lagging behind in vaccines and have no immunity from previous waves. I will follow their numbers as part of my routine. I've been following that region's news because I have family/friends in the area. The biggest issue is they've done so well with soft lockdowns/masking/social distancing that they have been in no rush to vaccinate. They have the AZ vaccine but most people are holding out for the better Pfizer/Moderna/future ones. Poorer Southeast Asian countries have much higher vaccination rates than Taiwan. South Korea and Japan are kinda in the same boat with low vaccination rates as well but neither country is as bad as Taiwan. "Soft lockdowns/masking/social distancing" you say? Why do you always skip the obviously most important part of preventing outbreaks? For Taiwan, it was 1: Being an island, and most other islands did very well, including Spanish ones. 2: An extremely strict regimen for entering the country. 3: Massive testing and tracking. Sure, they wore masks and all that, but how many cases did it really prevent? Who knows? It's impossible to tell which measure prevented cases vis a vis other measures with any degree of certainty. Besides, just about everything in that region south and east of China is an island. Can't really compare islands like Taiwan with small islands that are tourist destinations. Taiwan's population is bigger than many European countries. The virus had already started spreading in other countries before China locked down Wuhan. Banning inbound flights doesn't prevent an outbreak that is already there. Other countries have been unable to get the virus in check before mass vaccination programs. Taiwan didn't have the luxury of being a far away island considering how close they are to Wuhan.
I actually followed a video blog of a colleague entering Taiwan to work, and the precautions taken were absolutely insane! Some details:
-He had to spend 14 days locked into his hotel room, not seeing anyone.
-He was given a phone to report about his health.
-The one time that phone went out of battery, the police called to check on him.
Also, they had a positivity rate of less than 2% in the early stages, tracking down absolutely everything.
But sure, it was the face masks which made the difference, just as they did for the 2nd and 3rd waves in Spain (uh...)
I find it very curious how Norwegian media treat them, the "bad guys" don't believe in them, but they also don't really use masks themselves. Masks never became a political and moral symbol there, and the government stuck to the facts instead of getting carried away by appearing responsable. They waited a long time to recommend them at all, and when they finally did, only certain areas and in situations when "a distance of 1 meter is impossible."
You do not need to cover your face to keep covid-19 under control, other things matter WAAAY more.
I can't wait to see people's face again, those things are absolute cancer for social life.
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For me I'll wear it in public spaces where it's reasonably foreseeable that I will be in a crowded indoor environment with a lot of people, or where a lot of people transit through such as public transit. I'm thinking in places like supermarkets where there are frequently a lot of people who cannot yet be vaccinated such as younger children, masking up is still beneficial if nothing else, to minimize whatever the unvaccinated transmit between each other by forcing everyone to mask up.
If we can achieve a population level vaccination of 80%+, I think not requiring masks is reasonable. This can be achieved with the current age 12+ guidance, so it's crucial to vaccinate everyone eligible. Any clusters of covid will quickly die out, and the low numbers of unvaccinated mean that there's a much lower chance of a superspreader. A 50 person gathering would have 10 new infections at most, down from the 49 we'd see now.
edit: On a side note, everyone I interact with most closely is vaccinated, or will soon be vaccinated. Everyone in my family, closest friends circle, and their families have all been vaccinated, or have appointments to do so. We will hopefully start returning to normal social gatherings this summer.
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EPT
