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On November 05 2018 05:16 pmh wrote:
Republicans are going to hold the house,possibly even win big. Calling it now.
Economy is booming,taxes got cut and the population overall likes his immigration policy.
How will republicans lose this,i don't see it there is no way.
I really don't know how you got there from here. Unemployment is low, but wages haven't really gone up any. People who were struggling financially are still struggling financially. The tax cut that was the GOP's sole legislative accomplishment around twenty months of holding the presidency and majorities in both houses of congress is not popular enough for Republican candidates to campaign on. And McConnell talked about cutting earned benefit programs like Social Security after the election.
That's not even getting into all of the culture stuff, or the kids in cages, or Trump buddying up to dictators and autocrats while alienating all of our allies.
The Republican core demographics generally have higher turnout than the national average. Trump won in a low turnout election - lowest since 1996 - and has governed as though the only people who matter are the ones who voted for him, which predictably is driving up turnout among all of the non-Trump-voter demographics. That there is even the possibility of there not being a landslide burying Republicans in the House is a testament to the structural advantages Republicans have and the voter suppression measures they've implemented.
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The idea that either the gop or the dems could outright die is a fundamental misunderstanding of us politics. The two party system dictates that both sides will always live no matter how bad it gets. A party can recover from a historic defeat in a decade like it was nothing.
Its not like how new labor split off of labor allowing Thatcher to send her opposition into the desert or the conservative party being able to make a nice seat for themselves on top of the fence. They're too big and fundamental to the system to fail.
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Wages also haven't gone up under Clinton or Obama. Trump kind of did promise to bring back beautiful coal jobs. But even if Trump didn't have those delusional views, he still wouldn't have been able to get these people new jobs, even if he wanted.
Trump's approval rating is absurdly low considering he has a booming economy and considering he doesn't have a hugely unpopular war going on. If you correct for both of those, his approval rating is terrible. But those people won't go out and vote democrat. Not this week and not in 2020. Why should they?
Tha racists and deplorables out there will go out and proudly vote GOP. Those old rich white people are happy with their tax cuts and don't care about the moral damage and go 'see no evil hear no evil' mode and vote GOP, like they always have. Corporate democrats will go out and vote for dems, just as they voted for Clinton. But basically everyone else will stay home. If Trump is going down, it will be Mueller. But let's not forget that Mueller is a Republican and let's not forget what happened to Nixon. They cannot afford to admit Trump is a Putin agent. If that happens you will turn into a banana republic like Brazil, where the last two presidents are actually in jail. No. Mueller will pin everything on Stone and claim huge victory and the public will never found out what happened with Trump, the Russian channels, let alone the money laundering.
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United States24805 Posts
On November 05 2018 06:19 Panthous wrote:
Trump's approval rating is absurdly low considering he has a booming economy and considering he doesn't have a hugely unpopular war going on. If you correct for both of those, his approval rating is terrible. But those people won't go out and vote democrat. Not this week and not in 2020. Why should they?
I'm not sure about this. Trump could have pretty much just hit the cruise control the day he took office and the economy would have been strong. Not starting a huge unpopular war is not the bar you must rise over in order to do well as president and become popular as a result. You can start zero wars and be undeniably the worst president in a generation. On the other hand, starting a hugely unpopular war can drive you towards being a very unpopular president very quickly. In other words, I think it's a mistake to point to 'not starting a hugely unpopular war' as a reason why the president's approval rating is overly deflated.
I think even if we correct for both of those items despite my misgivings, his approval rating is way too high, but that's my opinion.
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I am not sure you read or understood my comment. All the really low approval ratings were either during economic downturns or during unpopular wars. Trump has no unpopular war and has an economic boom. If you correct for both (which you should as both of these dominate presidential approval ratings but say very little about the job the president is doing) , Trump has a terribly low approval rating (though he has a very high approval rating among his base, his base has just shrunk).
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United States24805 Posts
On November 05 2018 06:49 Panthous wrote:
I am not sure you read or understood my comment. All the really low approval ratings were either during economic downturns or during unpopular wars. Trump has no unpopular war and has an economic boom. If you correct for both (which you should as both of these dominate presidential approval ratings but say very little about the job the president is doing) , Trump has a terribly low approval rating (though he has a very high approval rating among his base, his base has just shrunk).
You are still making assumptions that I don't agree with. Just because some previous low approval ratings were due to unpopular wars or economic downturns, that doesn't necessarily mean that if Trump has no unpopular wars or economic downturns, then his current low approval rating is somehow lower than it should be. If Trump is hated by everyone because he goes around sucking the blood of children, and his approval rating is 5% supported mostly by vampires, then you can't say that Trump's approval rating, when corrected for the good economy and lack of unpopular wars, should actually be quite a few points higher. That's not how it works.
edit: Oh, if you are saying that he's doing even worse than you'd expect given the good economy, then I get you.
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Only way Reps hold the house is if too many people that vote D assume they have it and stay home... just like the presidential election.
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On November 05 2018 07:06 Gahlo wrote:
Only way Reps hold the house is if too many people that vote D assume they have it and stay home... just like the presidential election.
Trump having won will hopefully keep that from happening for at least another couple of years.
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On November 05 2018 06:56 micronesia wrote:
You are still making assumptions that I don't agree with. Just because some previous low approval ratings were due to unpopular wars or economic downturns, that doesn't necessarily mean that if Trump has no unpopular wars or economic downturns, then his current low approval rating is somehow lower than it should be.
Trump doesn't have an unpopular war or an economic downturn. And if he had, his rating would be lower than it is right now, not higher as you seem to be saying (though I doubt that is what you mean to say).
On November 05 2018 07:06 Gahlo wrote:
Only way Reps hold the house is if too many people that vote D assume they have it and stay home... just like the presidential election.
That only happened because all those potential Clinton voters were reculantly voting for Clinton and were actually voting to prevent Trump for winning. When they 'knew' Clinton was going to win anyway, they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Clinton. What has changed?
Yes, Clinton still won the popular vote, but the US system is rigged to keep crazy right wingers in power.
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On November 05 2018 06:56 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2018 06:49 Panthous wrote:
I am not sure you read or understood my comment. All the really low approval ratings were either during economic downturns or during unpopular wars. Trump has no unpopular war and has an economic boom. If you correct for both (which you should as both of these dominate presidential approval ratings but say very little about the job the president is doing) , Trump has a terribly low approval rating (though he has a very high approval rating among his base, his base has just shrunk). You are still making assumptions that I don't agree with. Just because some previous low approval ratings were due to unpopular wars or economic downturns, that doesn't necessarily mean that if Trump has no unpopular wars or economic downturns, then his current low approval rating is somehow lower than it should be. If Trump is hated by everyone because he goes around sucking the blood of children, and his approval rating is 5% supported mostly by vampires, then you can't say that Trump's approval rating, when corrected for the good economy and lack of unpopular wars, should actually be quite a few points higher. That's not how it works. edit: Oh, if you are saying that he's doing even worse than you'd expect given the good economy, then I get you. He means the latter yes, Trumps abysmal approval rating is already inflated by a good economy. Account for that and the 'real' rating is even lower.
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Truman has the second lowest average approval. And that was because of the Korean war. Now of course he was to blame for that, but up until Trump, the only way to get such a low approval was to have such a horrific pointless war going on (and that was such a long time ago, the way polls are done and the way people approach government/poll is going to be way different, so it cannot really be compared anyway).
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Are we now going to adjust aproval ratings for external factors? Claiming it "should" either be lower or higher? that i find a weird way to deal with a statistic like this. External factors are not relevant,when polling. people are not asked about them either "
Judging the effect of external factors seems impossible to me,there are so many general but also personsl factors,any conclusion about it is highly speculative.
Good economy no doubt helps trump,not starting a big war is another. But the later is actually trumps own choice lol,he gets some aproval because he did not start a huge war. Economy is more tricky,fed has more influence on that. Maybe Trump got lucky with a Good economy but how is that relevant for his aproval rating i dont see. His rating is what it is.
Trump calls the ratings fake. They cant be fake,they are what they are but very accurate for the whole population they are not. Only so many people get asked for the poll,there always is some sort of bias and people can say A in a poll while voting B on the ballot
Trumps claim about record support from afro americans seems to be at least somewhat true btw,and is also not completely illogical. it is 1 reason i think republicans will do well. I also think his immigration policys are rather popular with people who are in the bottom 25%. Maybe unrightfully so but that does not matter when counting the votes.
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Early voting is reported up in multiple places so far. According to TIME, at least 28 states so far have seen early voting increases compared to 2014 midterms. In Texas, early voting alone has already surpassed all votes cast in the 2014 midterms. When you take into account that increased turnout tends to favor Democrats, things are looking in their favor. Whether that means they'll retake the House, who knows, but you can count on Democrats regaining at least some ground if projections are correct.
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It is kinda remarkable that obama does a lot of campaigning for the democrats this election. I know this is somewhat common in the usa,to have ex presidents campaign,but it also shows that the democrats still dont have a credible succesor for obama. i think the democrats could make a much stronger case if they would have a clear leader who could be the face of opposition against trump. In politics these days having a clear leader seems to be importent.
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On November 05 2018 08:12 pmh wrote:
It is kinda remarkable that obama does a lot of campaigning for the democrats this election. I know this is somewhat common in the usa,to have ex presidents campaign,but it also shows that the democrats still dont have a credible succesor for obama. i think the democrats could make a much stronger case if they would have a clear leader who could be the face of opposition against trump. In politics these days having a clear leader seems to be importent. I don't see why it's remarkable. It's been under two years since Obama left office because of term limits and the Dems most recent presidential candidate wasn't particularly popular.
On November 05 2018 07:51 pmh wrote:
Are we now going to adjust aproval ratings for external factors? Claiming it "should" either be lower or higher? that i find a weird way to deal with a statistic like this. External factors are not relevant,when polling. people are not asked about them either "
Judging the effect of external factors seems impossible to me,there are so many general but also personsl factors,any conclusion about it is highly speculative.
Good economy no doubt helps trump,not starting a big war is another. But the later is actually trumps own choice lol,he gets some aproval because he did not start a huge war. Economy is more tricky,fed has more influence on that. Maybe Trump got lucky with a Good economy but how is that relevant for his aproval rating i dont see. His rating is what it is.
Trump calls the ratings fake. They cant be fake,they are what they are but very accurate for the whole population they are not. Only so many people get asked for the poll,there always is some sort of bias and people can say A in a poll while voting B on the ballot
Trumps claim about record support from afro americans seems to be at least somewhat true btw,and is also not completely illogical. it is 1 reason i think republicans will do well. I also think his immigration policys are rather popular with people who are in the bottom 25%. Maybe unrightfully so but that does not matter when counting the votes. These claims have about as much credibility to them as Trump's claim that construction has already started on his border wall. A better sentence might be "Trump's immigration policies are rather popular with around 25% of Americans." Trump's immigration policies include stealing kids from their parents and locking them in cages, and that was pretty unpopular.
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There are not that many citizens who are happy with immigration,i wish it was different but it is not. If it was anywhere remotely popular then why does a party not run on letting in more immigrants?
I dont think there has been a party anywhere anytime in the west that has ran on letting in more immigrants. They might have it in their program somewhere,but they will never ever make it a big campaigning isue because it is mot popular.
They dont run on letting in more immigrants because they would lose big running on that and they know it.
People might not like or detest some aspects of trumps immigrstion policy,but overall the majority is not unhappy with the outcome in the end,at least thats what i think. Maybe i am horribly wrong with this,could be.
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You don't need to run on being pro-immigration because that is the default state of the nation.
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United States44379 Posts
On November 05 2018 05:16 pmh wrote:
Republicans are going to hold the house,possibly even win big. Calling it now.
Economy is booming,taxes got cut and the population overall likes his immigration policy.
How will republicans lose this,i don't see it there is no way.
You didn’t notice the SP500 drop 15% in the last two weeks?
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On November 05 2018 09:50 pmh wrote:
There are not that many citizens who are happy with immigration,i wish it was different but it is not. If it was anywhere remotely popular then why does a party not run on letting in more immigrants?
I dont think there has been a party anywhere anytime in the west that has ran on letting in more immigrants. They might have it in their program somewhere,but they will never ever make it a big campaigning isue because it is mot popular.
They dont run on letting in more immigrants because they would lose big running on that and they know it.
People might not like or detest some aspects of trumps immigrstion policy,but overall the majority is not unhappy with the outcome in the end,at least thats what i think. Maybe i am horribly wrong with this,could be.
No one runs on letting in more immigrants, they run on keeping people out. The bog standard “functional immigration system that meets the labor needs of the US” is not at election issue anyone can run on. Running on turning immigration into a “merit” based system(merit being a pretty vague term) is something people can run on. And deporting all the illegal immigrants. And some legal ones too.
And the majority of the country does not give a fuck amount immigration. It ranks low among everyone but Republicans as the reason they vote. That is like 26% of the US. The majority want immigration reform.
On November 05 2018 13:18 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2018 05:16 pmh wrote:
Republicans are going to hold the house,possibly even win big. Calling it now.
Economy is booming,taxes got cut and the population overall likes his immigration policy.
How will republicans lose this,i don't see it there is no way.
You didn’t notice the SP500 drop 15% in the last two weeks?
I feel like there isn’t a firm grasp of the economy and or how Americans view the economy in this thread.
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On the website "breefing.com" (recommended for people who do trading) there was an article about the S&P and the elections. Hypothesis was that the recent sell of was basicly pricing in the democrats winning the house while the republicans hold the senate. Maybe that was indeed partially a reason though there can be many more reasons that did contribute. Markets have been up lots,not only since trump election but also during Obama. It would not be that weird to take a pause now and then. It was also suggested that no matter the outcome,the markets would more or less calm down afterwards because the uncertainty about the outcome would have gone.
Its a great website btw,definitly recommended to take a look.
https://www.briefing.com/investor/our-view/the-big-picture/thoughts-on-the-midterm-election.htm
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