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On April 19 2024 06:43 cheesehuehue wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2024 04:45 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On April 19 2024 02:24 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
I'm actually really enjoying the discussion. It's quite civil, too. Fun to read.
From my personal point of view - TMNT is mopping the floor (respectfully, ofc) with his opponents so far. TMNT has been blessed with the powers of opinions based on statistics. You've got to be kidding me. A guy who is always misinterepreting statistics, or accepting them only when they agree with his a priori conclusions, and rejects them when they don't support his conclusions, a guy who doesn't even know what cherry picking is, and feels insulted because someone points out he he is cherry picking, is suddenly blessed with the powers of statistics???? You must be extremely uneducated to think someone who clearly knows nothing beyond basic high school level statistics is "blessed by the power of opinions based on statistics". This is the peak anti-intellectualism in the post-Trump era.
This reads like the Rick and Morty copypasta
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On April 19 2024 06:35 Bonyth wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2024 05:36 Sigrun wrote:On April 18 2024 18:32 TMNT wrote:
How coincidental is that, that all the top talents who play Protoss are just not as good as Zerg and Terran?
They are though? The main problem is that there has never been a Protoss player that is exceedingly good at BOTH PvT and PvZ. Bisu had a nearly 65% winrate PvZ during Kespa era, but less than 60% PvT. Whereas Stork had 62% winrate PvT, but only 54% PvZ. The best players from other races are able to dominate all three matchups, but Protoss has been unable to produce a player that can do the same. So they're more likely to be eliminated from tournaments once they hit the race they're weak against (this is even without considering PvP in the mix). And what would the win rates vs other races be for terran and zerg race best representatives?
Offline or Online?
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For anyone wondering, this is the post that led to cheesehuehue's accusation of me "misinterpreting stats and cherry picking" :
On April 02 2024 04:25 TMNT wrote:They are sponsored games from China. Best and Light also did 18 games recently. They probably got a hefty sum from the sponsor so no reasons not to do it lol. It's not like they didn't play each other plenty of times before in Proleague or can't study each other's VODs. Btw + Show Spoiler +Snow won 5-4 yesterday but lost 3-6 today, but both days he went 2-4 down in the first place. That should tell you how the series would end if they play each other in the semi.
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On April 19 2024 07:56 TMNT wrote:For anyone wondering, this is the post that led to cheesehuehue's accusation of me "misinterpreting stats and cherry picking" : Show nested quote +On April 02 2024 04:25 TMNT wrote:They are sponsored games from China. Best and Light also did 18 games recently. They probably got a hefty sum from the sponsor so no reasons not to do it lol. It's not like they didn't play each other plenty of times before in Proleague or can't study each other's VODs. Btw + Show Spoiler +Snow won 5-4 yesterday but lost 3-6 today, but both days he went 2-4 down in the first place. That should tell you how the series would end if they play each other in the semi.
Not sure how this could be interpreted as cherry picking... is cheesehuehue alright?
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United States1654 Posts
On April 19 2024 06:35 Bonyth wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2024 05:36 Sigrun wrote:On April 18 2024 18:32 TMNT wrote:
How coincidental is that, that all the top talents who play Protoss are just not as good as Zerg and Terran?
They are though? The main problem is that there has never been a Protoss player that is exceedingly good at BOTH PvT and PvZ. Bisu had a nearly 65% winrate PvZ during Kespa era, but less than 60% PvT. Whereas Stork had 62% winrate PvT, but only 54% PvZ. The best players from other races are able to dominate all three matchups, but Protoss has been unable to produce a player that can do the same. So they're more likely to be eliminated from tournaments once they hit the race they're weak against (this is even without considering PvP in the mix). And what would the win rates vs other races be for terran and zerg race best representatives?
Going purely off Kespa era stats from Liquipedia, Jaedong was ZvT 56.7% ZvP 62.6%, which is pretty much the same as Bisu's stats, yet Jaedong has many more achievements despite this fact. So if it's not the matchups themselves, it might come down to something like Protoss being more vulnerable to mind games or cheeses in a bo format, or perhaps the maps have been unfavorable, which would be an interesting topic to research.
I also looked up best Terran stats but Flash is an anomaly with 70% winrates in all matchups and the previous Terran bonjwa Nada was TvZ 69.7% TvP 63.7% which really just tells me that Terran being OP is the one thing both Zerg and Protoss can agree on 
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On April 19 2024 08:44 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2024 07:56 TMNT wrote:For anyone wondering, this is the post that led to cheesehuehue's accusation of me "misinterpreting stats and cherry picking" : On April 02 2024 04:25 TMNT wrote:They are sponsored games from China. Best and Light also did 18 games recently. They probably got a hefty sum from the sponsor so no reasons not to do it lol. It's not like they didn't play each other plenty of times before in Proleague or can't study each other's VODs. Btw + Show Spoiler +Snow won 5-4 yesterday but lost 3-6 today, but both days he went 2-4 down in the first place. That should tell you how the series would end if they play each other in the semi. Not sure how this could be interpreted as cherry picking... is cheesehuehue alright?
Mathematically cherry picking refers to selecting specific data points that support a particular conclusion while ignoring others that would contradict it.
He was referring to the use of both Bo9's coincidentally getting to a score of 2-4 in the initial 6 games as statistical evidence for the outcome of the semis, which is a statistical fallacy and... factually cherry picking.
Funny enough, the score did end up being 2-4
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On April 19 2024 00:18 Gippy wrote:
It's too bad half of the comments are about PvZ balance. I don't see it that way, because I don't feel like Snow played his very best but had no hope due to "imbalance". Snow made enough unforced errors to affect the outcome. Do we even have this discussion if Snow didn't miss his gas in game 3, or if he didn't try some unusual reaver/archon bust w/o storm in game 4 (which surprised both English casting duos) instead of taking a third?
snow played exceptionally well...
he lost the series, but that was expected cause z>p
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On April 19 2024 05:36 Sigrun wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2024 18:32 TMNT wrote:
How coincidental is that, that all the top talents who play Protoss are just not as good as Zerg and Terran?
They are though? The main problem is that there has never been a Protoss player that is exceedingly good at BOTH PvT and PvZ. Bisu had a nearly 65% winrate PvZ during Kespa era, but less than 60% PvT. Whereas Stork had 62% winrate PvT, but only 54% PvZ. The best players from other races are able to dominate all three matchups, but Protoss has been unable to produce a player that can do the same. So they're more likely to be eliminated from tournaments once they hit the race they're weak against (this is even without considering PvP in the mix).
Almost all players, regardless of race, have one strong matchup and one weaker matchup. Normally the strong matchups are TvZ for Terran, ZvP for Zerg, PvT for Protoss.
The only player who dominates in all 3 matchups is Flash. Aside from him, Terran doesn't have a player who dominates both TvP and TvZ. And Zerg doesn't have a player who dominates both ZvP and ZvT.
The reason that Protoss is often thought to be the only race who suffers from this "phenomenon" is Bisu. He's the most famous one but also the outlier, as he goes against the rule for Protoss. His PvZ is way better than his PvT, so people tend to fall into this trap: oh Bisu is good at PvZ and bad at PvT, but Stork is good at PvT and bad at PvZ, so Protoss doesn't have a player who is good at both matchups.
The funny thing is that Bisu's Kespa win rate in PvT was actually as good as Jaedong's ZvT (both 63% according to TLPD), while his PvZ is stronger than Jaedong's ZvP (71.5 to 67.4%). So Bisu's reputation of sucking at PvT seems more like a case of victim of his own success (in PvZ). Finally, maybe the reason that Jaedong had more success is down to their mirrors, as Jaedong's ZvZ was at 73% while Bisu's PvP was only 64%.
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On April 17 2024 19:58 Magic Powers wrote:
The fact that Snow was eliminated by SK isn't surprising. SK is a beast of a player with an incredible mindset, and yesterday he made the comeback of his career. After game two his theoretical odds were somewhere in the 20% region, yet he didn't collapse under the pressure. That's the most noteworthy thing about the match. Not PvZ imbalances, not Snow's failure to advance. SK should be the talk of the day.
Naw, the comeback of his career is still the 0-3 into 4-3 vs Innovation in that WCS or GSL finals on SC2. Soulkey does this pretty often, by the way (losing the first 2-3 games and then sweeping the rest).
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On April 19 2024 09:31 TMNT wrote:
The funny thing is that Bisu's Kespa win rate in PvT was actually as good as Jaedong's ZvT (both 63% according to TLPD), while his PvZ is stronger than Jaedong's ZvP (71.5 to 67.4%). So Bisu's reputation of sucking at PvT seems more like a case of victim of his own success (in PvZ). Finally, maybe the reason that Jaedong had more success is down to their mirrors, as Jaedong's ZvZ was at 73% while Bisu's PvP was only 64%.
People say Bisu is weak in PvT because they saw him too many times engage mid-late game in extremely clumsy fashion, stasising the front tanks and losing his whole army in the same situation where Stork would absolutely crush the T.
I wasn't expecting his PvT stats to be that good, but he was certainly a strong player. I think there were quite fundamental holes in his PvT play though, at least back in the day. If his stats are that good, that just shows how strong other aspects of his game were.
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Okay. Any mods around here noticing that Smorrie and cheesehuehue tend to pop up in a thread to go off topic just to personally attack me?
Like, instead of engaging in the current discussion, be it heated or not, but it's still about Starcraft, they just make a lengthy post to have a go at another poster.
Mind that the latter, cheesehuehue, is a new user, who literally made his ID based on the words used by Smorrie in a post arguing with me. Since then he has made 11 posts, of which 6 were solely used to attack me. They both like Zerg, seem to pop up in the forum at the same time, in the same thread, and back up each other. They write similarly, and even repeatedly use the same terms to attack me. They both acted hostile towards me first, then played victim later.
This seems suspicious as fuck.
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On April 19 2024 08:44 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2024 07:56 TMNT wrote:For anyone wondering, this is the post that led to cheesehuehue's accusation of me "misinterpreting stats and cherry picking" : On April 02 2024 04:25 TMNT wrote:They are sponsored games from China. Best and Light also did 18 games recently. They probably got a hefty sum from the sponsor so no reasons not to do it lol. It's not like they didn't play each other plenty of times before in Proleague or can't study each other's VODs. Btw + Show Spoiler +Snow won 5-4 yesterday but lost 3-6 today, but both days he went 2-4 down in the first place. That should tell you how the series would end if they play each other in the semi. Not sure how this could be interpreted as cherry picking... is cheesehuehue alright?
Yeah but I think the bigger problem is, based on that guys post, BisuDagger probably has to go anti intellectualism supreme court for his crime in making conclusions predictions in his ASL previews.
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On April 19 2024 09:54 TMNT wrote:
Okay. Any mods around here noticing that Smorrie and cheesehuehue tend to pop up in a thread to go off topic just to personally attack me?
Like, instead of engaging in the current discussion, be it heated or not, but it's still about Starcraft, they just make a lengthy post to have a go at another poster.
Mind that the latter, cheesehuehue, is a new user, who literally made his ID based on the words used by Smorrie in a post arguing with me. Since then he has made 11 posts, of which 6 were solely used to attack me. They both like Zerg, seem to pop up in the forum at the same time, in the same thread, and back up each other. They write similarly, and even repeatedly use the same terms to attack me. They both acted hostile towards me first, then played victim later.
This seems suspicious as fuck.
.
What's the heck? Can you just get off my nuts. Since your deranged crusade I stopped from responding to any of your toxic posts. I'm surprised you didn't slip in another insults in this one. You were patronizing me from the very first time you responded to a post of mine. What is your problem.
I did not respond to you and didn't address you. Stay in your lane and stop spreading your conspiracy ideas involving me. All this shit only lives in your own head.
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thedeadhaji
39489 Posts
On April 19 2024 09:00 Sigrun wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2024 06:35 Bonyth wrote:On April 19 2024 05:36 Sigrun wrote:On April 18 2024 18:32 TMNT wrote:
How coincidental is that, that all the top talents who play Protoss are just not as good as Zerg and Terran?
They are though? The main problem is that there has never been a Protoss player that is exceedingly good at BOTH PvT and PvZ. Bisu had a nearly 65% winrate PvZ during Kespa era, but less than 60% PvT. Whereas Stork had 62% winrate PvT, but only 54% PvZ. The best players from other races are able to dominate all three matchups, but Protoss has been unable to produce a player that can do the same. So they're more likely to be eliminated from tournaments once they hit the race they're weak against (this is even without considering PvP in the mix). And what would the win rates vs other races be for terran and zerg race best representatives? Going purely off Kespa era stats from Liquipedia, Jaedong was ZvT 56.7% ZvP 62.6%, which is pretty much the same as Bisu's stats, yet Jaedong has many more achievements despite this fact. So if it's not the matchups themselves, it might come down to something like Protoss being more vulnerable to mind games or cheeses in a bo format, or perhaps the maps have been unfavorable, which would be an interesting topic to research. I also looked up best Terran stats but Flash is an anomaly with 70% winrates in all matchups and the previous Terran bonjwa Nada was TvZ 69.7% TvP 63.7% which really just tells me that Terran being OP is the one thing both Zerg and Protoss can agree on
Like you said, JD was a workhorse for Oz in prologue so that's likely a factor.
also
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/br6FvB6.jpeg)
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On April 19 2024 10:27 Smorrie wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2024 09:54 TMNT wrote:
Okay. Any mods around here noticing that Smorrie and cheesehuehue tend to pop up in a thread to go off topic just to personally attack me?
Like, instead of engaging in the current discussion, be it heated or not, but it's still about Starcraft, they just make a lengthy post to have a go at another poster.
Mind that the latter, cheesehuehue, is a new user, who literally made his ID based on the words used by Smorrie in a post arguing with me. Since then he has made 11 posts, of which 6 were solely used to attack me. They both like Zerg, seem to pop up in the forum at the same time, in the same thread, and back up each other. They write similarly, and even repeatedly use the same terms to attack me. They both acted hostile towards me first, then played victim later.
This seems suspicious as fuck.
.
What's the heck? Can you just get off my nuts. Since your deranged crusade I stopped from responding to any of your toxic posts. I'm surprised you didn't slip in another insults in this one. You were patronizing me from the very first time you responded to a post of mine. What is your problem. I did not respond to you and didn't address you. Stay in your lane and stop spreading your conspiracy ideas involving me. All this shit only lives in your own head.
Lol anyone with a functional brain here can see what you did there. You're siding with essentially a troll account who repeatedly attacked me, and now you have the audacity to ask me to stay in my lane?
Then who did you address by using "he" in your previous post?
As for patronising, you clearly started it first in this post and even acted mildly provocative before that. That's the "very first time" you mentioned. Maybe you had a concussion somewhere since.
And talk about getting off your nuts, you got on my nuts first in the JD's reaction thread and you did it again here. Both times your posts have nothing to do with the active discussion in the threads, but everything to do with me.
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zvp is probably imbalanced at the early stages of the game due to the information denial zerg can have on protoss.
the potency of the all ins zergs can field before corsair is able to scout in time for a response is strong + protoss has to rely on photon cannons to defend the all ins which zergs regularly abuse by not committing and continuing information denial.
this is at the highest of high levels where zergs are just that good at executing the all ins and also being able to abuse the fog of war.
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On April 19 2024 13:04 CHEONSOYUN wrote:
zvp is probably imbalanced at the early stages of the game due to the information denial zerg can have on protoss.
the potency of the all ins zergs can field before corsair is able to scout in time for a response is strong + protoss has to rely on photon cannons to defend the all ins which zergs regularly abuse by not committing and continuing information denial.
this is at the highest of high levels where zergs are just that good at executing the all ins and also being able to abuse the fog of war.
Yeah I think this is basically it, although once Protoss moved on to also including gateway-first openers and playing more actively, the effects of this imbalance were cut down some.
I think it felt even more like this in the past and that things have certainly improved at least somewhat.
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On April 19 2024 09:31 TMNT wrote:
The only player who dominates in all 3 matchups is Flash. Aside from him, Terran doesn't have a player who dominates both TvP and TvZ. And Zerg doesn't have a player who dominates both ZvP and ZvT.
Soulkey? I can hardly find anyone else who has better ZvP or ZvT win rates in bo games.
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On April 19 2024 14:38 bochs wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2024 09:31 TMNT wrote:
The only player who dominates in all 3 matchups is Flash. Aside from him, Terran doesn't have a player who dominates both TvP and TvZ. And Zerg doesn't have a player who dominates both ZvP and ZvT.
Soulkey? I can hardly find anyone else who has better ZvP or ZvT win rates in bo games.
You mean 2 matchups? Since Soulkey is famous for being weak in ZvZ but I think recently it has changed. Weird that his ZvZ during Kespa was 60% while now it's 49%.
Not sure where we can find win rates for BO alone. But Kespa Soulkey reads 65% vP and 54% vT. Meanwhile modern Soulkey since 2021 is at 61% vP and 57% vT. So more or less stays true to the norms of Zerg: strong in ZvP and weaker in ZvT.
Edit: if you take only offline tournaments (ASL + KSL) it's closer at 62.5% vP and 59.5% vT although the data was cut off after ASL16. After this season his ZvP win rate has increased a little bit.
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EPT
