On April 18 2024 16:12 SerpentFlame wrote: The balance whine about PvZ is ridiculous. SK lost two fast games, won two fast games, and the two decider games were > 100 supply games where Snow didn't have to guess about SK at all.
Every whine about gambling only applies to the 4 games where rushes were used, which split 2-2. In the non-gamble games, Soulkey beat Snow 2-0 by a hair. Can't blame PvZ imba for snow not mining the fourth gas in game 3.
Do better. Whether PvZ is imbalanced or not in the early game had absolutely nothing to do with the results of the series. SK won the macro games. (The maps have P > Z anyways).
I don't understand why people can't credit both players for playing well, and SK for playing better. If SK won four rushes in a row, fine. But he didn't. He won on the macro games.
Yes but games aren't played in a vacuum, pro players have several times said how the way they play influences their future play. Gambling strategies or timed all ins influence every single map and choice precisely because they are always possible, even if the game later turns into a long macro game. If Protoss knew there was not going to be any aggression they would never start with a forge to begin with.
It is boring as an spectator to see only one side being able to pick the dice on demand while the other side is always playing guess the build and gets zero advantage even when the guess is right.
Protoss does get an advantage if they guess right. By far the biggest factor in the ZvP imbalance is the first few minutes of the game, where zerg can overwhelm the protoss defense in various different ways, but protoss generally can't do the same to zerg. After those few minutes, protoss maintains an advantage throughout most of the middle game. This proves that if protoss guess right or defend well, they definitely do get rewarded for it. It's just not an instant win button.
P does get an advantage when guessing correctly, though how much, depends on the particular guess.
Something you see a lot from SK gameplay is that once he's behind due to early game BO choices he'll just allin. And the success rate of an allin is not very dependent on the openers, like a few worker advantage is not going to impact it as much as just whether you guessed correctly or not.
On April 18 2024 16:12 SerpentFlame wrote: The balance whine about PvZ is ridiculous. SK lost two fast games, won two fast games, and the two decider games were > 100 supply games where Snow didn't have to guess about SK at all.
Every whine about gambling only applies to the 4 games where rushes were used, which split 2-2. In the non-gamble games, Soulkey beat Snow 2-0 by a hair. Can't blame PvZ imba for snow not mining the fourth gas in game 3.
Do better. Whether PvZ is imbalanced or not in the early game had absolutely nothing to do with the results of the series. SK won the macro games. (The maps have P > Z anyways).
I don't understand why people can't credit both players for playing well, and SK for playing better. If SK won four rushes in a row, fine. But he didn't. He won on the macro games.
Yes but games aren't played in a vacuum, pro players have several times said how the way they play influences their future play. Gambling strategies or timed all ins influence every single map and choice precisely because they are always possible, even if the game later turns into a long macro game. If Protoss knew there was not going to be any aggression they would never start with a forge to begin with.
It is boring as an spectator to see only one side being able to pick the dice on demand while the other side is always playing guess the build and gets zero advantage even when the guess is right.
Protoss does get an advantage if they guess right. By far the biggest factor in the ZvP imbalance is the first few minutes of the game, where zerg can overwhelm the protoss defense in various different ways, but protoss generally can't do the same to zerg. After those few minutes, prot oss maintains an advantage throughout most of the middle game. This proves that if protoss guess right or defend well, they definitely do get rewarded for it. It's just not an instant win button.
Two things:
- If Protoss guesses wrong, it's 100% dead. But if Protoss guesses right, it's not 100% dead for Zerg. How many percent of chance does Zerg have to turn the game? 10, 20, 30%? Depends on what type of aggression and how much damage they deal. But the exact number doesn't matter. It's still more than 0. You can literally see an example of this in game 4 Citadel. After the attempted Hydra bust that if Snow didn't defend well, he would have died, Soulkey backed off for a 4 base macro game while Snow was stuck with 6 redundant Cannons. I'm not even sure we can say Snow was ahead at that point (Simplistik made this point a few pages ago), but for the sake of this argument let's just say Snow is 60/40 to win from there. Zerg would take that odds all day. Any races would take that odd after they attempt to end the other race but can't.
- I'd rather have a game where I don't have to guess to survive, but rather rely on my skill, i.e. if I'm good I hold 99% of the time and if I'm bad I die fair and square. Take no further comparison than TvP. Terran is weak and has limited scouting information in the early game while Protoss can throw a lot of things at them. But the Terran defense doesn't rely as much on guessing what the Protoss does. It's more about attention and execution. Building placement, laying mines, tank positioning, SCV pull,... stuff like that. For example, Snow's Reaver did game ending damage to Speed in Ro24 because he misplaced his Turrets, not because he had to guess if Snow was making Reavers or not. It's the equivalent of Protoss messing up their wall in PvZ really. If in PvZ, Protoss were put into a similar position as Terran in TvP, these talks would never have happened.
On April 18 2024 16:12 SerpentFlame wrote: The balance whine about PvZ is ridiculous. SK lost two fast games, won two fast games, and the two decider games were > 100 supply games where Snow didn't have to guess about SK at all.
Every whine about gambling only applies to the 4 games where rushes were used, which split 2-2. In the non-gamble games, Soulkey beat Snow 2-0 by a hair. Can't blame PvZ imba for snow not mining the fourth gas in game 3.
Do better. Whether PvZ is imbalanced or not in the early game had absolutely nothing to do with the results of the series. SK won the macro games. (The maps have P > Z anyways).
I don't understand why people can't credit both players for playing well, and SK for playing better. If SK won four rushes in a row, fine. But he didn't. He won on the macro games.
Yes but games aren't played in a vacuum, pro players have several times said how the way they play influences their future play. Gambling strategies or timed all ins influence every single map and choice precisely because they are always possible, even if the game later turns into a long macro game. If Protoss knew there was not going to be any aggression they would never start with a forge to begin with.
It is boring as an spectator to see only one side being able to pick the dice on demand while the other side is always playing guess the build and gets zero advantage even when the guess is right.
Protoss does get an advantage if they guess right. By far the biggest factor in the ZvP imbalance is the first few minutes of the game, where zerg can overwhelm the protoss defense in various different ways, but protoss generally can't do the same to zerg. After those few minutes, prot oss maintains an advantage throughout most of the middle game. This proves that if protoss guess right or defend well, they definitely do get rewarded for it. It's just not an instant win button.
Two things:
- If Protoss guesses wrong, it's 100% dead. But if Protoss guesses right, it's not 100% dead for Zerg. How many percent of chance does Zerg have to turn the game? 10, 20, 30%? Depends on what type of aggression and how much damage they deal. But the exact number doesn't matter. It's still more than 0. You can literally see an example of this in game 4 Citadel. After the attempted Hydra bust that if Snow didn't defend well, he would have died, Soulkey backed off for a 4 base macro game while Snow was stuck with 6 redundant Cannons. I'm not even sure we can say Snow was ahead at that point (Simplistik made this point a few pages ago), but for the sake of this argument let's just say Snow is 60/40 to win from there. Zerg would take that odds all day. Any races would take that odd after they attempt to end the other race but can't.
- I'd rather have a game where I don't have to guess to survive, but rather rely on my skill, i.e. if I'm good I hold 99% of the time and if I'm bad I die fair and square. Take no further comparison than TvP. Terran is weak and has limited scouting information in the early game while Protoss can throw a lot of things at them. But the Terran defense doesn't rely as much on guessing what the Protoss does. It's more about attention and execution. Building placement, laying mines, tank positioning, SCV pull,... stuff like that. For example, Snow's Reaver did game ending damage to Speed in Ro24 because he misplaced his Turrets, not because he had to guess if Snow was making Reavers or not. It's the equivalent of Protoss messing up their wall in PvZ really. If in PvZ, Protoss were put into a similar position as Terran in TvP, these talks would never have happened.
On April 18 2024 16:12 SerpentFlame wrote: The balance whine about PvZ is ridiculous. SK lost two fast games, won two fast games, and the two decider games were > 100 supply games where Snow didn't have to guess about SK at all.
Every whine about gambling only applies to the 4 games where rushes were used, which split 2-2. In the non-gamble games, Soulkey beat Snow 2-0 by a hair. Can't blame PvZ imba for snow not mining the fourth gas in game 3.
Do better. Whether PvZ is imbalanced or not in the early game had absolutely nothing to do with the results of the series. SK won the macro games. (The maps have P > Z anyways).
I don't understand why people can't credit both players for playing well, and SK for playing better. If SK won four rushes in a row, fine. But he didn't. He won on the macro games.
Yes but games aren't played in a vacuum, pro players have several times said how the way they play influences their future play. Gambling strategies or timed all ins influence every single map and choice precisely because they are always possible, even if the game later turns into a long macro game. If Protoss knew there was not going to be any aggression they would never start with a forge to begin with.
It is boring as an spectator to see only one side being able to pick the dice on demand while the other side is always playing guess the build and gets zero advantage even when the guess is right.
Protoss does get an advantage if they guess right. By far the biggest factor in the ZvP imbalance is the first few minutes of the game, where zerg can overwhelm the protoss defense in various different ways, but protoss generally can't do the same to zerg. After those few minutes, prot oss maintains an advantage throughout most of the middle game. This proves that if protoss guess right or defend well, they definitely do get rewarded for it. It's just not an instant win button.
Two things:
- If Protoss guesses wrong, it's 100% dead. But if Protoss guesses right, it's not 100% dead for Zerg. How many percent of chance does Zerg have to turn the game? 10, 20, 30%? Depends on what type of aggression and how much damage they deal. But the exact number doesn't matter. It's still more than 0. You can literally see an example of this in game 4 Citadel. After the attempted Hydra bust that if Snow didn't defend well, he would have died, Soulkey backed off for a 4 base macro game while Snow was stuck with 6 redundant Cannons. I'm not even sure we can say Snow was ahead at that point (Simplistik made this point a few pages ago), but for the sake of this argument let's just say Snow is 60/40 to win from there. Zerg would take that odds all day. Any races would take that odd after they attempt to end the other race but can't.
- I'd rather have a game where I don't have to guess to survive, but rather rely on my skill, i.e. if I'm good I hold 99% of the time and if I'm bad I die fair and square. Take no further comparison than TvP. Terran is weak and has limited scouting information in the early game while Protoss can throw a lot of things at them. But the Terran defense doesn't rely as much on guessing what the Protoss does. It's more about attention and execution. Building placement, laying mines, tank positioning, SCV pull,... stuff like that. For example, Snow's Reaver did game ending damage to Speed in Ro24 because he misplaced his Turrets, not because he had to guess if Snow was making Reavers or not. It's the equivalent of Protoss messing up their wall in PvZ really. If in PvZ, Protoss were put into a similar position as Terran in TvP, these talks would never have happened.
You play protoss right?
Nobody here plays BW anymore. We are just watching and moaning.
It's too bad half of the comments are about PvZ balance. I don't see it that way, because I don't feel like Snow played his very best but had no hope due to "imbalance". Snow made enough unforced errors to affect the outcome. Do we even have this discussion if Snow didn't miss his gas in game 3, or if he didn't try some unusual reaver/archon bust w/o storm in game 4 (which surprised both English casting duos) instead of taking a third?
All this whining is really annoying. People talk about imbalance when in fact all match-ups are very close to 50% win rate (in ASL at least) with slight advantages P>T>Z>P.
Soulkey didn't win because of all-ins. As someone else pointed out, he only won 50% of the all-ins. In one of the macro games (#3), Snow forgot to mine the 4th gas for a long time, and in the 4th game, Snow could have played safe and start his cannon just 10 seconds earlier, let alone making one more, when Soulkey slipped in 4 zerglings in his main.
On April 18 2024 16:12 SerpentFlame wrote: The balance whine about PvZ is ridiculous. SK lost two fast games, won two fast games, and the two decider games were > 100 supply games where Snow didn't have to guess about SK at all.
Every whine about gambling only applies to the 4 games where rushes were used, which split 2-2. In the non-gamble games, Soulkey beat Snow 2-0 by a hair. Can't blame PvZ imba for snow not mining the fourth gas in game 3.
Do better. Whether PvZ is imbalanced or not in the early game had absolutely nothing to do with the results of the series. SK won the macro games. (The maps have P > Z anyways).
I don't understand why people can't credit both players for playing well, and SK for playing better. If SK won four rushes in a row, fine. But he didn't. He won on the macro games.
Yes but games aren't played in a vacuum, pro players have several times said how the way they play influences their future play. Gambling strategies or timed all ins influence every single map and choice precisely because they are always possible, even if the game later turns into a long macro game. If Protoss knew there was not going to be any aggression they would never start with a forge to begin with.
It is boring as an spectator to see only one side being able to pick the dice on demand while the other side is always playing guess the build and gets zero advantage even when the guess is right.
Protoss does get an advantage if they guess right. By far the biggest factor in the ZvP imbalance is the first few minutes of the game, where zerg can overwhelm the protoss defense in various different ways, but protoss generally can't do the same to zerg. After those few minutes, prot oss maintains an advantage throughout most of the middle game. This proves that if protoss guess right or defend well, they definitely do get rewarded for it. It's just not an instant win button.
Two things:
- If Protoss guesses wrong, it's 100% dead. But if Protoss guesses right, it's not 100% dead for Zerg. How many percent of chance does Zerg have to turn the game? 10, 20, 30%? Depends on what type of aggression and how much damage they deal. But the exact number doesn't matter. It's still more than 0. You can literally see an example of this in game 4 Citadel. After the attempted Hydra bust that if Snow didn't defend well, he would have died, Soulkey backed off for a 4 base macro game while Snow was stuck with 6 redundant Cannons. I'm not even sure we can say Snow was ahead at that point (Simplistik made this point a few pages ago), but for the sake of this argument let's just say Snow is 60/40 to win from there. Zerg would take that odds all day. Any races would take that odd after they attempt to end the other race but can't.
- I'd rather have a game where I don't have to guess to survive, but rather rely on my skill, i.e. if I'm good I hold 99% of the time and if I'm bad I die fair and square. Take no further comparison than TvP. Terran is weak and has limited scouting information in the early game while Protoss can throw a lot of things at them. But the Terran defense doesn't rely as much on guessing what the Protoss does. It's more about attention and execution. Building placement, laying mines, tank positioning, SCV pull,... stuff like that. For example, Snow's Reaver did game ending damage to Speed in Ro24 because he misplaced his Turrets, not because he had to guess if Snow was making Reavers or not. It's the equivalent of Protoss messing up their wall in PvZ really. If in PvZ, Protoss were put into a similar position as Terran in TvP, these talks would never have happened.
You play protoss right?
I played Terran. I presume that makes my arguments even more valid now.
Finally got around to watching this. Already been said a bunch but what a phenomenal game 3.
At first I didn't get the hype because it just looked like pure unadulterated dominance by Soulkey (which tbf is an impressive enough showcase to be worthy of adulation) but then the bridge siege? Dude...Soulkey's a genius, and Snow is a monster
On April 19 2024 00:18 Gippy wrote: It's too bad half of the comments are about PvZ balance. I don't see it that way, because I don't feel like Snow played his very best but had no hope due to "imbalance". Snow made enough unforced errors to affect the outcome. Do we even have this discussion if Snow didn't miss his gas in game 3, or if he didn't try some unusual reaver/archon bust w/o storm in game 4 (which surprised both English casting duos) instead of taking a third?
Snow literally said in his stream after losing that he felt like he played around 30% of how he could have. Obviously he's a pro, but I don't think he nor his viewers were blaming imbalance much.
Starting at viewer asks him out of 100 what his gameplay score was. He says 30% at 3:58 and then gets 30 balloons (3 dollars) in the next donation at 4:10. Then he goes like "actually i played a 500 out of 100 game"
Everyone claiming balance is the issue seems to be looking for an excuse.
Game 3: Mine gas and he has the army to take that extra base. Recall the island or main to force a reposition or total tech reset. Or just even play standard because at that point you've taken one extra base, and he was close to winning without it.
Game 4: If he pushes bottom right he at the very least eliminates both bases. Maybe gets stuck in a base race but the reavers + cannons might handle it well enough.
Game 5: Knowing rushes are popular on that map, just build the extra cannons. It is a big map, with a much higher lean towards you at least getting an even split of the map.
You can blame balance or scouting or whatever, but all races take risks. A zerg makes sunkens when the terran pushes out, knowing that if they're made the terran can't break them, so they must turn around. Defaulting to adding a cannon or two extra when you lack scouting info is just safe play if you think you're the better player.
On April 18 2024 18:32 TMNT wrote: How coincidental is that, that all the top talents who play Protoss are just not as good as Zerg and Terran?
They are though? The main problem is that there has never been a Protoss player that is exceedingly good at BOTH PvT and PvZ. Bisu had a nearly 65% winrate PvZ during Kespa era, but less than 60% PvT. Whereas Stork had 62% winrate PvT, but only 54% PvZ.
The best players from other races are able to dominate all three matchups, but Protoss has been unable to produce a player that can do the same. So they're more likely to be eliminated from tournaments once they hit the race they're weak against (this is even without considering PvP in the mix).
On April 18 2024 18:32 TMNT wrote: How coincidental is that, that all the top talents who play Protoss are just not as good as Zerg and Terran?
They are though? The main problem is that there has never been a Protoss player that is exceedingly good at BOTH PvT and PvZ. Bisu had a nearly 65% winrate PvZ during Kespa era, but less than 60% PvT. Whereas Stork had 62% winrate PvT, but only 54% PvZ.
The best players from other races are able to dominate all three matchups, but Protoss has been unable to produce a player that can do the same. So they're more likely to be eliminated from tournaments once they hit the race they're weak against (this is even without considering PvP in the mix).
And what would the win rates vs other races be for terran and zerg race best representatives?
On April 19 2024 02:24 M3t4PhYzX wrote: I'm actually really enjoying the discussion. It's quite civil, too. Fun to read.
From my personal point of view - TMNT is mopping the floor (respectfully, ofc) with his opponents so far.
TMNT has been blessed with the powers of opinions based on statistics.
You've got to be kidding me. A guy who is always misinterepreting statistics, or accepting them only when they agree with his a priori conclusions, and rejects them when they don't support his conclusions, a guy who doesn't even know what cherry picking is, and feels insulted because someone points out he he is cherry picking, is suddenly blessed with the powers of statistics???? You must be extremely uneducated to think someone who clearly knows nothing beyond basic high school level statistics is "blessed by the power of opinions based on statistics". This is the peak anti-intellectualism in the post-Trump era.
EPT
