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On April 30 2022 05:22 Doc.Rivers wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2022 04:41 NewSunshine wrote: I mean, in general, I appreciate wanting to err on the side of caution when moderating a conversation. On the other hand, repeatedly bringing up Hunter Biden, despite all the claims being made about it, has nothing to do with politics. Is he a shitty dude? It's looking like it. Is it related to anything political? Doubt it. Combining that with thread policies about argument in absentia, and subjective moderation as a response to past users who would frequently engage in bad faith on incendiary topics, and I think a warning is appropriate here.
A warning technically gets logged on your site record, sure, but that's it. It doesn't matter. You dust yourself off, hopefully take a step back and think about what happened, and everyone moves on. I don't think anything was out of line about it. You and many others really, really don't want Joe & Hunter's interlinked finances to be talked about. As more and more documents come out (as is happening on an almost daily basis, and as was shown by the more recent hunter biden discussion in the thread), it will become very clear why dems didn't want the issue to be talked about. The evidence of public corruption is already sitting right out in the open. And if so, we've already had 4 years of nobody giving a shit about it. Why start now?
I'm really not hashing this out with you again. It's still a stupid topic until something real comes out, and I'm tired of you posting that something's seriously gonna happen, real soon, seriously. If it happens and it's bad, it doesn't need you hyping it up. Until then, I'm going to continue not giving a shit. Now go away.
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On April 30 2022 07:25 NewSunshine wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2022 05:22 Doc.Rivers wrote:On April 30 2022 04:41 NewSunshine wrote: I mean, in general, I appreciate wanting to err on the side of caution when moderating a conversation. On the other hand, repeatedly bringing up Hunter Biden, despite all the claims being made about it, has nothing to do with politics. Is he a shitty dude? It's looking like it. Is it related to anything political? Doubt it. Combining that with thread policies about argument in absentia, and subjective moderation as a response to past users who would frequently engage in bad faith on incendiary topics, and I think a warning is appropriate here.
A warning technically gets logged on your site record, sure, but that's it. It doesn't matter. You dust yourself off, hopefully take a step back and think about what happened, and everyone moves on. I don't think anything was out of line about it. You and many others really, really don't want Joe & Hunter's interlinked finances to be talked about. As more and more documents come out (as is happening on an almost daily basis, and as was shown by the more recent hunter biden discussion in the thread), it will become very clear why dems didn't want the issue to be talked about. The evidence of public corruption is already sitting right out in the open. And if so, we've already had 4 years of nobody giving a shit about it. Why start now? I'm really not hashing this out with you again. It's still a stupid topic until something real comes out, and I'm tired of you posting that something's seriously gonna happen, real soon, seriously. If it happens and it's bad, it doesn't need you hyping it up. Until then, I'm going to continue not giving a shit. Now go away.
The reality is that real evidence is already out and you are willfully ignoring it because of your party allegiance.
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Hyrule18980 Posts
This is not a thread for you to argue with each other, this is a thread to provide feedback to staff.
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On that note, I ask again is TL.net now deciding to regulating truth, and logic in arguments?
And what do you think about my suggestion about warnings for posting videos and descriptions? No fan of Doc.Rivers but a public warning seems overly harsh for soemthign that is only a problem if repeatedly done.
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I am not sure how to address this properly, but i think the Russo-Ukrainian War Thread needs a bit more modding. We already had russians, russian soldiers and russian supporters dehumanized. We then saw russian TL contributors, not caring about the obvious trolls, be bullied as proxies for Russia and having to explain everything they say. It's telling, that the most civil person in the thread towards the russian poster is the guy that had to flee from Kharkiv. There seems to be alot of hate in that thread right now and it will find individual targets if it is not reigned in.
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Ok, this is gettign really tiresome and fustrating. For lack of a better place, this is about the Ukraine thread. If only it had continued to be discussed separated in the US Pol and Europe pol thread. It's been years since I've posted in the US pol thread, yet I still cannot get away from Kwark's and neb's hectoring at my posts.
I get responses and posts like this from Kwark in the Ukraine thread. As well as previously, when Kwark is being a real dick just typing "go read my post again" over and over when he cannot counter a well written argument and then neb comes along bbeing a dick as well. Such a person would had been reported and banned repeatedly, but because he is a mod, he will never be repimanded. it's not the first time. I am able to disagree recently with Magic Powers for instance and others in the Ukraine thread, and able to argue amicably, yet Kwark will always seek to satsify himself.
On July 09 2022 10:32 KwarK wrote: Your new argument is also wrong.
On July 07 2022 06:20 KwarK wrote: You can be pretty sure if you like but you’d be wrong.
Yet Kwark is able to personally take offence at a meek "Brandon" comment at legallord and tempban him for a week. How exactly is this fair? Is TL.net supposed to be a place for Kwark to continue to be a dick to people? Should I not also argue the excuse that Kwark triggers me and should also be banned a week any different? How exacttly is it right for a mod to behave in such a manner?
And I write this know that Kwark will reply being a dick, or I'll be asked to ignore Kwark, whilst he is completely free to continue being a dick to anything I write. You as mods might think that when you post, your mod status does not matter but it most certainly does and others will moderate their own responses to match.
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United States41996 Posts
I still don’t know why you feel qualified to assert that direct rule imperialism is profitable for the state finances of the imperialist nation. I provided as much effort into the negated of your assertion as you did making the claim.
Maybe don’t assert shit you don’t know if you don’t like it being casually negated.
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On July 12 2022 04:46 Dangermousecatdog wrote: neb's hectoring at my posts.
In the real world I've been ignoring you for, I want to say a year but at least many months. Our last five to ten interactions are me posting something not directed at you, you answering with something abrasive, and me not interacting.
I also don't post in the Ukraine thread, like, ever? Don't know how to check but I'm not even sure I've posted once in that thread.
It's important that others realize that it's very unlikely that you don't know that. You're just a bad faith actor.
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Norway28560 Posts
Prior to this very post, you had not responded to DMCD since October 2020. You did however write one post in the Ukraine thread back in March.
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On July 12 2022 05:13 KwarK wrote: I still don’t know why you feel qualified to assert that direct rule imperialism is profitable for the state finances of the imperialist nation. I provided as much effort into the negated of your assertion as you did making the claim.
Maybe don’t assert shit you don’t know if you don’t like it being casually negated. You are wrong. I wrote paragraphs, with many examples, any of which you could had picked and replied back to. You are not any more qualified, in fact less by your inability to even take apart one example, automatically reverting to one liner derogatory dismissals. You cannot answer back in a logical fashion, so you simply answer "you are wrong" and "read my post" over and over because you are a mod and you can get away with it. That's not casual negation, that's just being an arse. Which because you are a mod, you think you are being clever, instead of being supported by sycophants. remove your modship and you will find out that things will be different.
But that is just beside the point. Kwark is abusing his position as mod to satisfy his own ego. He is rude, and are able to do so safely. He should not be a mod and if he wasn't a mod he would had been actioned long ago. If not for that power discrepancy, you would not have been act this way. But Kwark is a mod and so he does so. But I have long resigned myself to that the mods and admins don't care and are happy to allow this for some reason.
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On July 13 2022 01:56 Nebuchad wrote:In the real world I've been ignoring you for, I want to say a year but at least many months. Our last five to ten interactions are me posting something not directed at you, you answering with something abrasive, and me not interacting. I also don't post in the Ukraine thread, like, ever? Don't know how to check but I'm not even sure I've posted once in that thread. It's important that others realize that it's very unlikely that you don't know that. You're just a bad faith actor. You seem to ignore me whenever you have a massive logical gap or simply want to not explain yourself whenever you write something wrong. It was only because the European pol thread about Ukraine was merged with the US Pol thread that you decided to heckle me saying somethign US Pol thread related. Because apparently you just can't let go of year old greviances against me in an unrelated thread. What exactly is so abrasive? If I am bad faith what is this:
On March 18 2022 23:45 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2022 23:43 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On March 18 2022 23:27 KwarK wrote:On March 18 2022 22:33 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 18 2022 20:06 GreenHorizons wrote: I definitely consider the US also a "bad guy" in this conflict. Lockheed and Raytheon aren't giving the weapons away and the US military-industrial complex isn't some fantasy.
I don't think it's possible to divine out percentages of motivation for US involvement. That's going at least back to US interference in the sketchy election of Yeltsin who hand picked Putin as his successor, through US support of the overthrow of the Ukrainian government ~2014, to today.
What we do know is that Democracy isn't paramount as we see with arming Saudi Arabia despite their atrocities in Yemen. We also know the US is willing to support violent illegal occupations in Palestine and arm the occupation. So I for one don't buy into the whole Team America Benevolent World Police narrative. Then again is there any time in your book where the US is not the bad guy. He’s looking at the US outside of the lens of greater evil analysis and pointing out that the US brings an awful lot of evil into the world. Both domestically with its oligarchic capitalist exploitation of the people and resources of the United States and with the enforcement of a global world order designed to import resources and extract misery. God probably wouldn’t judge the US very favourably. But sometimes the stars align and the US fucks over someone who actually deserves it. In those instances the US looks like a good guy, provided you ignore literally everything else it also does. When GH says the US is a bad guy he doesn’t mean the US is always the worst guy in any given room, he means that you can’t ignore the bigger picture. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to conclude that when the US supports the little guy in this conflict and the big autocratic guy bombing villages in Yemen it’s probably not because the US hates dictatorships, loves human rights, and supports the plucky underdog. The concerns are geopolitical, not moral, and it just happens that geopolitical concerns and moral concerns have aligned this time. But doing the right thing for the wrong reasons is still doing the right thing, I’ll take it. Greenhorizon can debate by himself with his own arguments. He doesn't need you to come up with your own projections. If you want to make an argument, you don't need to hide behind another's name and use their name to make your own argument. And USA is very much not the "bad guy" during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. USA warned Ukraine and the rest of the world for 3 months that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine. Many European countries are also sending arms and aid to Ukraine, just like USA is doing. This is the Ukraine thread, not USA thread. Go whataboutism in the dedicated USA thread instead. Besides this talk of "bad guys" is so naive it's beyond immature. Read my post again. You clearly didn’t succeed the first time.
On March 18 2022 23:51 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2022 23:46 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On March 18 2022 23:45 KwarK wrote:On March 18 2022 23:43 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On March 18 2022 23:27 KwarK wrote:On March 18 2022 22:33 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 18 2022 20:06 GreenHorizons wrote: I definitely consider the US also a "bad guy" in this conflict. Lockheed and Raytheon aren't giving the weapons away and the US military-industrial complex isn't some fantasy.
I don't think it's possible to divine out percentages of motivation for US involvement. That's going at least back to US interference in the sketchy election of Yeltsin who hand picked Putin as his successor, through US support of the overthrow of the Ukrainian government ~2014, to today.
What we do know is that Democracy isn't paramount as we see with arming Saudi Arabia despite their atrocities in Yemen. We also know the US is willing to support violent illegal occupations in Palestine and arm the occupation. So I for one don't buy into the whole Team America Benevolent World Police narrative. Then again is there any time in your book where the US is not the bad guy. He’s looking at the US outside of the lens of greater evil analysis and pointing out that the US brings an awful lot of evil into the world. Both domestically with its oligarchic capitalist exploitation of the people and resources of the United States and with the enforcement of a global world order designed to import resources and extract misery. God probably wouldn’t judge the US very favourably. But sometimes the stars align and the US fucks over someone who actually deserves it. In those instances the US looks like a good guy, provided you ignore literally everything else it also does. When GH says the US is a bad guy he doesn’t mean the US is always the worst guy in any given room, he means that you can’t ignore the bigger picture. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to conclude that when the US supports the little guy in this conflict and the big autocratic guy bombing villages in Yemen it’s probably not because the US hates dictatorships, loves human rights, and supports the plucky underdog. The concerns are geopolitical, not moral, and it just happens that geopolitical concerns and moral concerns have aligned this time. But doing the right thing for the wrong reasons is still doing the right thing, I’ll take it. Greenhorizon can debate by himself with his own arguments. He doesn't need you to come up with your own projections. If you want to make an argument, you don't need to hide behind another's name and use their name to make your own argument. And USA is very much not the "bad guy" during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. USA warned Ukraine and the rest of the world for 3 months that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine. Many European countries are also sending arms and aid to Ukraine, just like USA is doing. This is the Ukraine thread, not USA thread. Go whataboutism in the dedicated USA thread instead. Besides this talk of "bad guys" is so naive it's beyond immature. Read my post again. You clearly didn’t succeed the first time. Read my post again. You clearly didn’t succeed the first time. I'll say it again, since you failed to succeed the first time, this is the Ukraine thread not USA whataboutism thread. You got the USA thread as the whataboutism USA thread. You want to go say USA brings great evil in the world. Do it in the USA thread. You want to argue that USA is the "bad guy" in Ukraine. You can do it here. But that's not what you are doing. Try a third time.
On March 19 2022 12:01 Nebuchad wrote:With everything that has changed in the world it's good to see that US pol thread interactions have not 
Or
On July 07 2022 06:20 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2022 06:13 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Pretty sure the Spanish, Portugese, Dutch and British Empire pretty much paid for themselves, in that all of those respective empires at their height could afford more military to defend their homeland and influence their local area that is Europe which is the point of "wealth" from the standpoint of a country. ______________ On July 06 2022 15:32 Magic Powers wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 06 2022 05:22 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2022 08:45 Magic Powers wrote:On July 05 2022 06:49 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Don't know why you are all acting so suprised that Russia is capable of taking a city that has been slowly encircled for weeks, when I did say they are learning lessons and their army is coordinating over a month ago. Can't remember where I got this from, but it was reported that Russia is throwing about 50 thousand artillery shells a day. This sounds like a lot, and it is if if you are in the target area, but for point of comparison WW1 could see a million shells on certain days. There is no chance Russia will run into supply issues as long as Ukraine cannot strike deep into Russian supply points and Russia keeps its slow rate of advance. Russia hasn't learned much of a lesson then, as they've only claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, and in the process they've depleted a lot of their arsenal. Russia is already facing supply issues, and has been for weeks at least. For us to misunderstand the situation would mean that Russia has been significantly holding back so far, which is certainly not the case, with the exception of the nuclear option. They're factually incapable of meaningfully striking deeper into Ukraine. They've directed their fire onto certain regions more than others, resulting in a success like encircling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and that whole region, while at the same time relinguishing control over numerous other regions that nobody has spoken about in recent weeks, but it's been happening continuously. My assumption would be that Russia, in order to have that one success, ordered a reduction of manpower in those other regions. So as has been said a few times, claiming territory is one thing, but holding it is another, and I guess that's especially true during an offensive war. Hence why I'd consider this phase the special stalling operations. I don't see how you can say Russia has claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, when Russia occupies whole areas of Ukraine whereas, Ukraine controls none of Russia's territory. Or perhaps you meant from some indeterminate point of time, in which case you'll have to provide a date, preferably but not neccessarily from within a month ago, so it makes some sort of sense. Then we can compare. Some areas nearby Kharkiv has been regained, but the importance of such pales in comparison to the territory Russia now occupies. The difference in the area, and of the importance of the two cities is a far bigger gain than a few towns and villages, both in the area, and of former population sense and in strategical and logistical sense, as cities are always on major roads and crossroads, far more defensible than villages and farmland, and make for good places to store supplies. As to the rest, it is as you admit, a bunch of assumptions. Hopeful assumptions which I share the intention of, but thoughts and prayers will not help Ukraine. A few weeks ago I posted a comparison of the battle lines. The starting point was after Russia had withdrawn from the North, because I wanted to show how much progress Russia was able to make in the weeks/months since. There was no overall progress, the lines had shifted in both directions about equally. Recently I've made another comparison, but this time I didn't post it because it was the same conclusion of no overall progress. I can post it though so you can compare them. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/1tmGVGn0/Stand-4-April-2022.png) ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/QCVc0jqH/Stand-05-Juli-2022.png) As you can see, in the Severodonetsk region Russia has made significant progress. But if you compare the entire front, Ukraine has pushed back in many other regions. In total it's roughly equal on both sides. This is how I drew my conclusion of Ukraine successfully stalling, and it's why I'm optimistic about Ukraine eventually being able to push Russia back to the borders, unless of course Putin escalates and goes nuclear. Unfortunately I think it's quite likely that it'll take years because Ukrainians are mostly fighting alone. But who knows what'll happen, it's too early to call a definitive outcome. I opened up the two pictures in new tabs, copied them into another image program for direct comparison and it looks like Russia has gained more area overall. Even if we were to accept your premise that the area of occupied territory between those two points in time are the same, the area Russia has gained is incomparable in logistical and strategic worth for reasons I had previously outlined. You can be pretty sure if you like but you’d be wrong. The British empire was a net drain on the public purse. Spanish was weird because they just looted silver from people without bothering to actually govern but as a rule empire has never been profitable. The looting part is fun but then the occupying bit is shit. The best way to do it is privatize the looting but nationalize the governing which is basically the pineapple example mentioned. Make bank from the resources and demand a bailout when the locals try to nationalize your shit.
On July 09 2022 10:32 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2022 04:29 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On July 08 2022 05:25 KwarK wrote:On July 08 2022 04:35 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On July 07 2022 06:20 KwarK wrote:On July 07 2022 06:13 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Pretty sure the Spanish, Portugese, Dutch and British Empire pretty much paid for themselves, in that all of those respective empires at their height could afford more military to defend their homeland and influence their local area that is Europe which is the point of "wealth" from the standpoint of a country. ______________ On July 06 2022 15:32 Magic Powers wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 06 2022 05:22 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2022 08:45 Magic Powers wrote:On July 05 2022 06:49 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Don't know why you are all acting so suprised that Russia is capable of taking a city that has been slowly encircled for weeks, when I did say they are learning lessons and their army is coordinating over a month ago. Can't remember where I got this from, but it was reported that Russia is throwing about 50 thousand artillery shells a day. This sounds like a lot, and it is if if you are in the target area, but for point of comparison WW1 could see a million shells on certain days. There is no chance Russia will run into supply issues as long as Ukraine cannot strike deep into Russian supply points and Russia keeps its slow rate of advance. Russia hasn't learned much of a lesson then, as they've only claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, and in the process they've depleted a lot of their arsenal. Russia is already facing supply issues, and has been for weeks at least. For us to misunderstand the situation would mean that Russia has been significantly holding back so far, which is certainly not the case, with the exception of the nuclear option. They're factually incapable of meaningfully striking deeper into Ukraine. They've directed their fire onto certain regions more than others, resulting in a success like encircling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and that whole region, while at the same time relinguishing control over numerous other regions that nobody has spoken about in recent weeks, but it's been happening continuously. My assumption would be that Russia, in order to have that one success, ordered a reduction of manpower in those other regions. So as has been said a few times, claiming territory is one thing, but holding it is another, and I guess that's especially true during an offensive war. Hence why I'd consider this phase the special stalling operations. I don't see how you can say Russia has claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, when Russia occupies whole areas of Ukraine whereas, Ukraine controls none of Russia's territory. Or perhaps you meant from some indeterminate point of time, in which case you'll have to provide a date, preferably but not neccessarily from within a month ago, so it makes some sort of sense. Then we can compare. Some areas nearby Kharkiv has been regained, but the importance of such pales in comparison to the territory Russia now occupies. The difference in the area, and of the importance of the two cities is a far bigger gain than a few towns and villages, both in the area, and of former population sense and in strategical and logistical sense, as cities are always on major roads and crossroads, far more defensible than villages and farmland, and make for good places to store supplies. As to the rest, it is as you admit, a bunch of assumptions. Hopeful assumptions which I share the intention of, but thoughts and prayers will not help Ukraine. A few weeks ago I posted a comparison of the battle lines. The starting point was after Russia had withdrawn from the North, because I wanted to show how much progress Russia was able to make in the weeks/months since. There was no overall progress, the lines had shifted in both directions about equally. Recently I've made another comparison, but this time I didn't post it because it was the same conclusion of no overall progress. I can post it though so you can compare them. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/1tmGVGn0/Stand-4-April-2022.png) ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/QCVc0jqH/Stand-05-Juli-2022.png) As you can see, in the Severodonetsk region Russia has made significant progress. But if you compare the entire front, Ukraine has pushed back in many other regions. In total it's roughly equal on both sides. This is how I drew my conclusion of Ukraine successfully stalling, and it's why I'm optimistic about Ukraine eventually being able to push Russia back to the borders, unless of course Putin escalates and goes nuclear. Unfortunately I think it's quite likely that it'll take years because Ukrainians are mostly fighting alone. But who knows what'll happen, it's too early to call a definitive outcome. I opened up the two pictures in new tabs, copied them into another image program for direct comparison and it looks like Russia has gained more area overall. Even if we were to accept your premise that the area of occupied territory between those two points in time are the same, the area Russia has gained is incomparable in logistical and strategic worth for reasons I had previously outlined. You can be pretty sure if you like but you’d be wrong. The British empire was a net drain on the public purse. Spanish was weird because they just looted silver from people without bothering to actually govern but as a rule empire has never been profitable. The looting part is fun but then the occupying bit is shit. The best way to do it is privatize the looting but nationalize the governing which is basically the pineapple example mentioned. Make bank from the resources and demand a bailout when the locals try to nationalize your shit. Lets go through the listed empires one by one. Portugal, small, one sole land neighbout greatly more populous than it is, first European maritime empire, powerful enough not be utterly dominated by the then Castille, though diplomatic marriage played a part. Spain which you wierdly acknowledge greatly prospered with it's empire then dismisses this, an empire allowed it to press European claims it otherwise could not had with the great wealth allowing Spain to hold massive and sophisticated armies of the time, as well as a large navy, influencing European politics greatly, though most notably affecting by fighting the rest of Europe at the same time. Twice. They lost though. Netherlands, the birth of Netherlands against the then immense armies and navy of the Spanish army is also the birth of the Dutch Empire, which allowed the nation to accrue enough wealth over the course of about 80 years to not only survive but prosper against the behemoth of the Spanish Empire at the time, with mercenaries and forts brought by control of trade by the Dutch through their empire. The lowland rebellion that would become Netherlands if not for the wealth of the Dutch Empire; they are one and the same intrinsically linked at the time, navy and army funded by the Ducth Empire. Britain, a long history but mostly speaking the wealth of Empire allowed a navy and a trained professional army as opposed to conscript army which was able to greatly interfere on the continent almost at will. Most obvious would be both world wars, being able to afford a navy that would not had existed without funds from empire, which essentially blockaded or otherwise exert sea control over almost the entirety of the Atlantic, North and Mediterrean sea and bringing hundreds of thousands of overseas troops, which otherwise would not have existed if not for empire. Lets not forget the more recent examples of that period of the land empires of the Russian Empire and Chinese Empire, which through lands conquered greatly increased the wealth and power of their nation. Throughout the dawn of history, land was power and conquering land and being an empire was immensely profitable for the nation. It's not really debateable, as it is empire which always prospered and those that could not be locally powerful became vassals or were conquered in turn. Some places were a drain on a martime Empire, mostly inland Africa which was for the most part only conquered during the relatively late Scramble for Africa period (often suprisingly cheap in terms of manpower), but in terms of monetary power and in military power, the true and most important expression of wealth from the viewpoint of nation, conquering land very much paid for themselves. Of course all this is all totally irrelevant in the modern world, where wealth is no longer so much a matter of agriculture and natural resources and unlikely to be worthwhile, at least without essentially genociding the local population. Russia isn't seeking to occupy Ukraine for a notion of wealth, but for political and idealogical grounds. ____________________ On July 07 2022 15:41 Magic Powers wrote:On July 07 2022 06:13 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Pretty sure the Spanish, Portugese, Dutch and British Empire pretty much paid for themselves, in that all of those respective empires at their height could afford more military to defend their homeland and influence their local area that is Europe which is the point of "wealth" from the standpoint of a country. ______________ On July 06 2022 15:32 Magic Powers wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 06 2022 05:22 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2022 08:45 Magic Powers wrote:On July 05 2022 06:49 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Don't know why you are all acting so suprised that Russia is capable of taking a city that has been slowly encircled for weeks, when I did say they are learning lessons and their army is coordinating over a month ago. Can't remember where I got this from, but it was reported that Russia is throwing about 50 thousand artillery shells a day. This sounds like a lot, and it is if if you are in the target area, but for point of comparison WW1 could see a million shells on certain days. There is no chance Russia will run into supply issues as long as Ukraine cannot strike deep into Russian supply points and Russia keeps its slow rate of advance. Russia hasn't learned much of a lesson then, as they've only claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, and in the process they've depleted a lot of their arsenal. Russia is already facing supply issues, and has been for weeks at least. For us to misunderstand the situation would mean that Russia has been significantly holding back so far, which is certainly not the case, with the exception of the nuclear option. They're factually incapable of meaningfully striking deeper into Ukraine. They've directed their fire onto certain regions more than others, resulting in a success like encircling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and that whole region, while at the same time relinguishing control over numerous other regions that nobody has spoken about in recent weeks, but it's been happening continuously. My assumption would be that Russia, in order to have that one success, ordered a reduction of manpower in those other regions. So as has been said a few times, claiming territory is one thing, but holding it is another, and I guess that's especially true during an offensive war. Hence why I'd consider this phase the special stalling operations. I don't see how you can say Russia has claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, when Russia occupies whole areas of Ukraine whereas, Ukraine controls none of Russia's territory. Or perhaps you meant from some indeterminate point of time, in which case you'll have to provide a date, preferably but not neccessarily from within a month ago, so it makes some sort of sense. Then we can compare. Some areas nearby Kharkiv has been regained, but the importance of such pales in comparison to the territory Russia now occupies. The difference in the area, and of the importance of the two cities is a far bigger gain than a few towns and villages, both in the area, and of former population sense and in strategical and logistical sense, as cities are always on major roads and crossroads, far more defensible than villages and farmland, and make for good places to store supplies. As to the rest, it is as you admit, a bunch of assumptions. Hopeful assumptions which I share the intention of, but thoughts and prayers will not help Ukraine. A few weeks ago I posted a comparison of the battle lines. The starting point was after Russia had withdrawn from the North, because I wanted to show how much progress Russia was able to make in the weeks/months since. There was no overall progress, the lines had shifted in both directions about equally. Recently I've made another comparison, but this time I didn't post it because it was the same conclusion of no overall progress. I can post it though so you can compare them. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/1tmGVGn0/Stand-4-April-2022.png) ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/QCVc0jqH/Stand-05-Juli-2022.png) As you can see, in the Severodonetsk region Russia has made significant progress. But if you compare the entire front, Ukraine has pushed back in many other regions. In total it's roughly equal on both sides. This is how I drew my conclusion of Ukraine successfully stalling, and it's why I'm optimistic about Ukraine eventually being able to push Russia back to the borders, unless of course Putin escalates and goes nuclear. Unfortunately I think it's quite likely that it'll take years because Ukrainians are mostly fighting alone. But who knows what'll happen, it's too early to call a definitive outcome. I opened up the two pictures in new tabs, copied them into another image program for direct comparison and it looks like Russia has gained more area overall. Even if we were to accept your premise that the area of occupied territory between those two points in time are the same, the area Russia has gained is incomparable in logistical and strategic worth for reasons I had previously outlined. These are the areas gained by each side since April 4th. Dark green is for Ukraine, dark red is for Russia. To me it's clear that Russia has gained a lot more ground in mostly one region, while Ukraine has gained a lot more ground in many regions. Overall it's even. But I'll let other people be the judge. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/2yKc7bw1/Stand-4-April-2022-Green-Line-overlay.png) Still looks very much Russia has gained to me and very much so that Russia has gained far more important territory. Supposing that the area has remained the same ignores the importance of the occupied area, but makes for a nice story I guess. Great for morale boost, not useful for understand what has or is currently occuring. I'll note that the green areas are somewhat dubious as it seems especially for the region past Kherson to simply include any area that Russians have penetrated to, even if they never truly had control of the area, but I suppose such is the fog of war. If as you say, Russian occupied areas gained is from withdrawing soldiers from other areas, that is an indication of Russia coordinating better rather than the early stages of the war. There's really isn't anything to gain by thinking Russians cannot learn. Afterall, Colonels ultimately do not want to die, and no commander, no matter how callous Russians seem, wants the men under their command to die and will be willing to adapt to acheive their objectives. Think I, like you, will leave those words and this topic at that. ___________ On July 07 2022 17:18 r00ty wrote: Just two thoughts: I don't think there is enough pressure on other oil producing countries to increase/maximize production. There should be more oversight and transparency for the companies, it seems like a giant cash grab atm. Oil/gas going down is what hurts the Putin regime the most.
Also, as one poster poited out a couple of weeks ago my country, its politicians and people are highly unrealistic about its production and consumption of energy. If we want all electric cars, Germany would have to at least triple its electric energy production. And on top the grid is not made for that, think people coming home from work to quick charge their electric cars at basically the same time. That peak would require an amount of battery capacity or an amount of regulators (power plants) that's not cost effective or even realistic considering we don't have that much space. It is possible with batteries and energy management systems in nearly every household but that will cost a bit.
I think that my government is still gambling on the Russian gas to be back soon and activating the 2 new Nordstream pipelines and the connected infrastructure as soon as possible. There is no real plan B. Unfortunately we're undermining
that by throwing money at Putin. Saudi Arabia seem to be refusing to pump more oil, which is a remarkable contrast to the time when Iran was sanctioned, when Saudi Arabia opened their taps and almost bankrupted Russia and Venezuela as a side effect. Turns out Saudi Arabia does prefers to do as is beneficial to them, and in this case Saudi Arabia is enjoying the benefits of higher oil prices. No. Your argument essentially runs “Britain had an empire and also Britain could afford an empire therefore the empire paid for itself”. It just doesn’t follow. It never paid for itself. No, I pretty much explicitly wrote Britain could afford a navy and army that could influence continental Europe that it wouldn't had been able to if not for empire. But hey create a strawman to burn down of your own accord. On July 08 2022 10:49 r00ty wrote:On July 08 2022 04:35 Dangermousecatdog wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 07 2022 06:20 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2022 06:13 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Pretty sure the Spanish, Portugese, Dutch and British Empire pretty much paid for themselves, in that all of those respective empires at their height could afford more military to defend their homeland and influence their local area that is Europe which is the point of "wealth" from the standpoint of a country. ______________ On July 06 2022 15:32 Magic Powers wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 06 2022 05:22 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2022 08:45 Magic Powers wrote:On July 05 2022 06:49 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Don't know why you are all acting so suprised that Russia is capable of taking a city that has been slowly encircled for weeks, when I did say they are learning lessons and their army is coordinating over a month ago. Can't remember where I got this from, but it was reported that Russia is throwing about 50 thousand artillery shells a day. This sounds like a lot, and it is if if you are in the target area, but for point of comparison WW1 could see a million shells on certain days. There is no chance Russia will run into supply issues as long as Ukraine cannot strike deep into Russian supply points and Russia keeps its slow rate of advance. Russia hasn't learned much of a lesson then, as they've only claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, and in the process they've depleted a lot of their arsenal. Russia is already facing supply issues, and has been for weeks at least. For us to misunderstand the situation would mean that Russia has been significantly holding back so far, which is certainly not the case, with the exception of the nuclear option. They're factually incapable of meaningfully striking deeper into Ukraine. They've directed their fire onto certain regions more than others, resulting in a success like encircling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and that whole region, while at the same time relinguishing control over numerous other regions that nobody has spoken about in recent weeks, but it's been happening continuously. My assumption would be that Russia, in order to have that one success, ordered a reduction of manpower in those other regions. So as has been said a few times, claiming territory is one thing, but holding it is another, and I guess that's especially true during an offensive war. Hence why I'd consider this phase the special stalling operations. I don't see how you can say Russia has claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, when Russia occupies whole areas of Ukraine whereas, Ukraine controls none of Russia's territory. Or perhaps you meant from some indeterminate point of time, in which case you'll have to provide a date, preferably but not neccessarily from within a month ago, so it makes some sort of sense. Then we can compare. Some areas nearby Kharkiv has been regained, but the importance of such pales in comparison to the territory Russia now occupies. The difference in the area, and of the importance of the two cities is a far bigger gain than a few towns and villages, both in the area, and of former population sense and in strategical and logistical sense, as cities are always on major roads and crossroads, far more defensible than villages and farmland, and make for good places to store supplies. As to the rest, it is as you admit, a bunch of assumptions. Hopeful assumptions which I share the intention of, but thoughts and prayers will not help Ukraine. A few weeks ago I posted a comparison of the battle lines. The starting point was after Russia had withdrawn from the North, because I wanted to show how much progress Russia was able to make in the weeks/months since. There was no overall progress, the lines had shifted in both directions about equally. Recently I've made another comparison, but this time I didn't post it because it was the same conclusion of no overall progress. I can post it though so you can compare them. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/1tmGVGn0/Stand-4-April-2022.png) ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/QCVc0jqH/Stand-05-Juli-2022.png) As you can see, in the Severodonetsk region Russia has made significant progress. But if you compare the entire front, Ukraine has pushed back in many other regions. In total it's roughly equal on both sides. This is how I drew my conclusion of Ukraine successfully stalling, and it's why I'm optimistic about Ukraine eventually being able to push Russia back to the borders, unless of course Putin escalates and goes nuclear. Unfortunately I think it's quite likely that it'll take years because Ukrainians are mostly fighting alone. But who knows what'll happen, it's too early to call a definitive outcome. I opened up the two pictures in new tabs, copied them into another image program for direct comparison and it looks like Russia has gained more area overall. Even if we were to accept your premise that the area of occupied territory between those two points in time are the same, the area Russia has gained is incomparable in logistical and strategic worth for reasons I had previously outlined. You can be pretty sure if you like but you’d be wrong. The British empire was a net drain on the public purse. Spanish was weird because they just looted silver from people without bothering to actually govern but as a rule empire has never been profitable. The looting part is fun but then the occupying bit is shit. The best way to do it is privatize the looting but nationalize the governing which is basically the pineapple example mentioned. Make bank from the resources and demand a bailout when the locals try to nationalize your shit. Lets go through the listed empires one by one. Portugal, small, one sole land neighbout greatly more populous than it is, first European maritime empire, powerful enough not be utterly dominated by the then Castille, though diplomatic marriage played a part. Spain which you wierdly acknowledge greatly prospered with it's empire then dismisses this, an empire allowed it to press European claims it otherwise could not had with the great wealth allowing Spain to hold massive and sophisticated armies of the time, as well as a large navy, influencing European politics greatly, though most notably affecting by fighting the rest of Europe at the same time. Twice. They lost though. Netherlands, the birth of Netherlands against the then immense armies and navy of the Spanish army is also the birth of the Dutch Empire, which allowed the nation to accrue enough wealth over the course of about 80 years to not only survive but prosper against the behemoth of the Spanish Empire at the time, with mercenaries and forts brought by control of trade by the Dutch through their empire. The lowland rebellion that would become Netherlands if not for the wealth of the Dutch Empire; they are one and the same intrinsically linked at the time, navy and army funded by the Ducth Empire. Britain, a long history but mostly speaking the wealth of Empire allowed a navy and a trained professional army as opposed to conscript army which was able to greatly interfere on the continent almost at will. Most obvious would be both world wars, being able to afford a navy that would not had existed without funds from empire, which essentially blockaded or otherwise exert sea control over almost the entirety of the Atlantic, North and Mediterrean sea and bringing hundreds of thousands of overseas troops, which otherwise would not have existed if not for empire. Lets not forget the more recent examples of that period of the land empires of the Russian Empire and Chinese Empire, which through lands conquered greatly increased the wealth and power of their nation. Throughout the dawn of history, land was power and conquering land and being an empire was immensely profitable for the nation. It's not really debateable, as it is empire which always prospered and those that could not be locally powerful became vassals or were conquered in turn. Some places were a drain on a martime Empire, mostly inland Africa which was for the most part only conquered during the relatively late Scramble for Africa period (often suprisingly cheap in terms of manpower), but in terms of monetary power and in military power, the true and most important expression of wealth from the viewpoint of nation, conquering land very much paid for themselves. Of course all this is all totally irrelevant in the modern world, where wealth is no longer so much a matter of agriculture and natural resources and unlikely to be worthwhile, at least without essentially genociding the local population. Russia isn't seeking to occupy Ukraine for a notion of wealth, but for political and idealogical grounds. ____________________ On July 07 2022 15:41 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2022 06:13 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Pretty sure the Spanish, Portugese, Dutch and British Empire pretty much paid for themselves, in that all of those respective empires at their height could afford more military to defend their homeland and influence their local area that is Europe which is the point of "wealth" from the standpoint of a country. ______________ On July 06 2022 15:32 Magic Powers wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 06 2022 05:22 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2022 08:45 Magic Powers wrote:On July 05 2022 06:49 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Don't know why you are all acting so suprised that Russia is capable of taking a city that has been slowly encircled for weeks, when I did say they are learning lessons and their army is coordinating over a month ago. Can't remember where I got this from, but it was reported that Russia is throwing about 50 thousand artillery shells a day. This sounds like a lot, and it is if if you are in the target area, but for point of comparison WW1 could see a million shells on certain days. There is no chance Russia will run into supply issues as long as Ukraine cannot strike deep into Russian supply points and Russia keeps its slow rate of advance. Russia hasn't learned much of a lesson then, as they've only claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, and in the process they've depleted a lot of their arsenal. Russia is already facing supply issues, and has been for weeks at least. For us to misunderstand the situation would mean that Russia has been significantly holding back so far, which is certainly not the case, with the exception of the nuclear option. They're factually incapable of meaningfully striking deeper into Ukraine. They've directed their fire onto certain regions more than others, resulting in a success like encircling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and that whole region, while at the same time relinguishing control over numerous other regions that nobody has spoken about in recent weeks, but it's been happening continuously. My assumption would be that Russia, in order to have that one success, ordered a reduction of manpower in those other regions. So as has been said a few times, claiming territory is one thing, but holding it is another, and I guess that's especially true during an offensive war. Hence why I'd consider this phase the special stalling operations. I don't see how you can say Russia has claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, when Russia occupies whole areas of Ukraine whereas, Ukraine controls none of Russia's territory. Or perhaps you meant from some indeterminate point of time, in which case you'll have to provide a date, preferably but not neccessarily from within a month ago, so it makes some sort of sense. Then we can compare. Some areas nearby Kharkiv has been regained, but the importance of such pales in comparison to the territory Russia now occupies. The difference in the area, and of the importance of the two cities is a far bigger gain than a few towns and villages, both in the area, and of former population sense and in strategical and logistical sense, as cities are always on major roads and crossroads, far more defensible than villages and farmland, and make for good places to store supplies. As to the rest, it is as you admit, a bunch of assumptions. Hopeful assumptions which I share the intention of, but thoughts and prayers will not help Ukraine. A few weeks ago I posted a comparison of the battle lines. The starting point was after Russia had withdrawn from the North, because I wanted to show how much progress Russia was able to make in the weeks/months since. There was no overall progress, the lines had shifted in both directions about equally. Recently I've made another comparison, but this time I didn't post it because it was the same conclusion of no overall progress. I can post it though so you can compare them. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/1tmGVGn0/Stand-4-April-2022.png) ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/QCVc0jqH/Stand-05-Juli-2022.png) As you can see, in the Severodonetsk region Russia has made significant progress. But if you compare the entire front, Ukraine has pushed back in many other regions. In total it's roughly equal on both sides. This is how I drew my conclusion of Ukraine successfully stalling, and it's why I'm optimistic about Ukraine eventually being able to push Russia back to the borders, unless of course Putin escalates and goes nuclear. Unfortunately I think it's quite likely that it'll take years because Ukrainians are mostly fighting alone. But who knows what'll happen, it's too early to call a definitive outcome. I opened up the two pictures in new tabs, copied them into another image program for direct comparison and it looks like Russia has gained more area overall. Even if we were to accept your premise that the area of occupied territory between those two points in time are the same, the area Russia has gained is incomparable in logistical and strategic worth for reasons I had previously outlined. These are the areas gained by each side since April 4th. Dark green is for Ukraine, dark red is for Russia. To me it's clear that Russia has gained a lot more ground in mostly one region, while Ukraine has gained a lot more ground in many regions. Overall it's even. But I'll let other people be the judge. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/2yKc7bw1/Stand-4-April-2022-Green-Line-overlay.png) Still looks very much Russia has gained to me and very much so that Russia has gained far more important territory. Supposing that the area has remained the same ignores the importance of the occupied area, but makes for a nice story I guess. Great for morale boost, not useful for understand what has or is currently occuring. I'll note that the green areas are somewhat dubious as it seems especially for the region past Kherson to simply include any area that Russians have penetrated to, even if they never truly had control of the area, but I suppose such is the fog of war. If as you say, Russian occupied areas gained is from withdrawing soldiers from other areas, that is an indication of Russia coordinating better rather than the early stages of the war. There's really isn't anything to gain by thinking Russians cannot learn. Afterall, Colonels ultimately do not want to die, and no commander, no matter how callous Russians seem, wants the men under their command to die and will be willing to adapt to acheive their objectives. Think I, like you, will leave those words and this topic at that. ___________ On July 07 2022 17:18 r00ty wrote: Just two thoughts: I don't think there is enough pressure on other oil producing countries to increase/maximize production. There should be more oversight and transparency for the companies, it seems like a giant cash grab atm. Oil/gas going down is what hurts the Putin regime the most.
Also, as one poster poited out a couple of weeks ago my country, its politicians and people are highly unrealistic about its production and consumption of energy. If we want all electric cars, Germany would have to at least triple its electric energy production. And on top the grid is not made for that, think people coming home from work to quick charge their electric cars at basically the same time. That peak would require an amount of battery capacity or an amount of regulators (power plants) that's not cost effective or even realistic considering we don't have that much space. It is possible with batteries and energy management systems in nearly every household but that will cost a bit.
I think that my government is still gambling on the Russian gas to be back soon and activating the 2 new Nordstream pipelines and the connected infrastructure as soon as possible. There is no real plan B. Unfortunately we're undermining
that by throwing money at Putin. Saudi Arabia seem to be refusing to pump more oil, which is a remarkable contrast to the time when Iran was sanctioned, when Saudi Arabia opened their taps and almost bankrupted Russia and Venezuela as a side effect. Turns out Saudi Arabia does prefers to do as is beneficial to them, and in this case Saudi Arabia is enjoying the benefits of higher oil prices. Exactly. And as if they don't have enough already. Billions upon billions of dollars are made on the backs of the Ukrainian people and by putting us all on the road to global recession. This could be ended without firing a bullet, but "the west" is too reliant on and toothless toward the autocrats in this world sitting on the oil and gas. Belarus lol. If they send troops who is gonna control the people at home? I wouldn't go so far as to say end the war without firing a bullet, but certainly if the other non-Russian OPEC members would pump more, it would be rather beneficial to Europe. Don't worry too much at throwing money at Putin though, when winter comes and Putin turns off the gas completely, there will be no money for putin either. Your new argument is also wrong.
Are those not abrasive? Are you not heckling, knowing that you have Kwark a mod safe at your back whilst I am facing dismissive response from a mod? _____________
I could respond like Kwark. I could respond by telling Kwark he didn't read my post every time. Or he is wrong every time. And he responds continuously as he does by chanting the nonsense over and over. I can do the same too ad infinitum, but if I were to undertake that experiment I would find myself quickly warned and banned and Kwark would escape scot free simply because he is a mod.
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Norway28560 Posts
Your example of neb's hectoring of your posts, that which you cannot get away from, is a single one liner he made in March where he doesn't even mention you and ends his post with a smiley? Kwark can fight his own battle but I have a hard time understanding why you yourself mentioned neb in all of this. The two aren't even particularly aligned in general.
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United States41996 Posts
On July 15 2022 04:45 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2022 05:13 KwarK wrote: I still don’t know why you feel qualified to assert that direct rule imperialism is profitable for the state finances of the imperialist nation. I provided as much effort into the negated of your assertion as you did making the claim.
Maybe don’t assert shit you don’t know if you don’t like it being casually negated. You are wrong. I wrote paragraphs, with many examples, any of which you could had picked and replied back to. You are not any more qualified, in fact less by your inability to even take apart one example, automatically reverting to one liner derogatory dismissals. You cannot answer back in a logical fashion, so you simply answer "you are wrong" and "read my post" over and over because you are a mod and you can get away with it. That's not casual negation, that's just being an arse. Which because you are a mod, you think you are being clever, instead of being supported by sycophants. remove your modship and you will find out that things will be different. But that is just beside the point. Kwark is abusing his position as mod to satisfy his own ego. He is rude, and are able to do so safely. He should not be a mod and if he wasn't a mod he would had been actioned long ago. If not for that power discrepancy, you would not have been act this way. But Kwark is a mod and so he does so. But I have long resigned myself to that the mods and admins don't care and are happy to allow this for some reason. _____________________________________ Show nested quote +On July 13 2022 01:56 Nebuchad wrote:On July 12 2022 04:46 Dangermousecatdog wrote: neb's hectoring at my posts.
In the real world I've been ignoring you for, I want to say a year but at least many months. Our last five to ten interactions are me posting something not directed at you, you answering with something abrasive, and me not interacting. I also don't post in the Ukraine thread, like, ever? Don't know how to check but I'm not even sure I've posted once in that thread. It's important that others realize that it's very unlikely that you don't know that. You're just a bad faith actor. You seem to ignore me whenever you have a massive logical gap or simply want to not explain yourself whenever you write something wrong. It was only because the European pol thread about Ukraine was merged with the US Pol thread that you decided to heckle me saying somethign US Pol thread related. Because apparently you just can't let go of year old greviances against me in an unrelated thread. What exactly is so abrasive? If I am bad faith what is this: Show nested quote +On March 18 2022 23:45 KwarK wrote:On March 18 2022 23:43 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On March 18 2022 23:27 KwarK wrote:On March 18 2022 22:33 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 18 2022 20:06 GreenHorizons wrote: I definitely consider the US also a "bad guy" in this conflict. Lockheed and Raytheon aren't giving the weapons away and the US military-industrial complex isn't some fantasy.
I don't think it's possible to divine out percentages of motivation for US involvement. That's going at least back to US interference in the sketchy election of Yeltsin who hand picked Putin as his successor, through US support of the overthrow of the Ukrainian government ~2014, to today.
What we do know is that Democracy isn't paramount as we see with arming Saudi Arabia despite their atrocities in Yemen. We also know the US is willing to support violent illegal occupations in Palestine and arm the occupation. So I for one don't buy into the whole Team America Benevolent World Police narrative. Then again is there any time in your book where the US is not the bad guy. He’s looking at the US outside of the lens of greater evil analysis and pointing out that the US brings an awful lot of evil into the world. Both domestically with its oligarchic capitalist exploitation of the people and resources of the United States and with the enforcement of a global world order designed to import resources and extract misery. God probably wouldn’t judge the US very favourably. But sometimes the stars align and the US fucks over someone who actually deserves it. In those instances the US looks like a good guy, provided you ignore literally everything else it also does. When GH says the US is a bad guy he doesn’t mean the US is always the worst guy in any given room, he means that you can’t ignore the bigger picture. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to conclude that when the US supports the little guy in this conflict and the big autocratic guy bombing villages in Yemen it’s probably not because the US hates dictatorships, loves human rights, and supports the plucky underdog. The concerns are geopolitical, not moral, and it just happens that geopolitical concerns and moral concerns have aligned this time. But doing the right thing for the wrong reasons is still doing the right thing, I’ll take it. Greenhorizon can debate by himself with his own arguments. He doesn't need you to come up with your own projections. If you want to make an argument, you don't need to hide behind another's name and use their name to make your own argument. And USA is very much not the "bad guy" during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. USA warned Ukraine and the rest of the world for 3 months that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine. Many European countries are also sending arms and aid to Ukraine, just like USA is doing. This is the Ukraine thread, not USA thread. Go whataboutism in the dedicated USA thread instead. Besides this talk of "bad guys" is so naive it's beyond immature. Read my post again. You clearly didn’t succeed the first time. Show nested quote +On March 18 2022 23:51 KwarK wrote:On March 18 2022 23:46 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On March 18 2022 23:45 KwarK wrote:On March 18 2022 23:43 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On March 18 2022 23:27 KwarK wrote:On March 18 2022 22:33 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 18 2022 20:06 GreenHorizons wrote: I definitely consider the US also a "bad guy" in this conflict. Lockheed and Raytheon aren't giving the weapons away and the US military-industrial complex isn't some fantasy.
I don't think it's possible to divine out percentages of motivation for US involvement. That's going at least back to US interference in the sketchy election of Yeltsin who hand picked Putin as his successor, through US support of the overthrow of the Ukrainian government ~2014, to today.
What we do know is that Democracy isn't paramount as we see with arming Saudi Arabia despite their atrocities in Yemen. We also know the US is willing to support violent illegal occupations in Palestine and arm the occupation. So I for one don't buy into the whole Team America Benevolent World Police narrative. Then again is there any time in your book where the US is not the bad guy. He’s looking at the US outside of the lens of greater evil analysis and pointing out that the US brings an awful lot of evil into the world. Both domestically with its oligarchic capitalist exploitation of the people and resources of the United States and with the enforcement of a global world order designed to import resources and extract misery. God probably wouldn’t judge the US very favourably. But sometimes the stars align and the US fucks over someone who actually deserves it. In those instances the US looks like a good guy, provided you ignore literally everything else it also does. When GH says the US is a bad guy he doesn’t mean the US is always the worst guy in any given room, he means that you can’t ignore the bigger picture. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to conclude that when the US supports the little guy in this conflict and the big autocratic guy bombing villages in Yemen it’s probably not because the US hates dictatorships, loves human rights, and supports the plucky underdog. The concerns are geopolitical, not moral, and it just happens that geopolitical concerns and moral concerns have aligned this time. But doing the right thing for the wrong reasons is still doing the right thing, I’ll take it. Greenhorizon can debate by himself with his own arguments. He doesn't need you to come up with your own projections. If you want to make an argument, you don't need to hide behind another's name and use their name to make your own argument. And USA is very much not the "bad guy" during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. USA warned Ukraine and the rest of the world for 3 months that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine. Many European countries are also sending arms and aid to Ukraine, just like USA is doing. This is the Ukraine thread, not USA thread. Go whataboutism in the dedicated USA thread instead. Besides this talk of "bad guys" is so naive it's beyond immature. Read my post again. You clearly didn’t succeed the first time. Read my post again. You clearly didn’t succeed the first time. I'll say it again, since you failed to succeed the first time, this is the Ukraine thread not USA whataboutism thread. You got the USA thread as the whataboutism USA thread. You want to go say USA brings great evil in the world. Do it in the USA thread. You want to argue that USA is the "bad guy" in Ukraine. You can do it here. But that's not what you are doing. Try a third time. Show nested quote +On March 19 2022 12:01 Nebuchad wrote:With everything that has changed in the world it's good to see that US pol thread interactions have not  Or Show nested quote +On July 07 2022 06:20 KwarK wrote:On July 07 2022 06:13 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Pretty sure the Spanish, Portugese, Dutch and British Empire pretty much paid for themselves, in that all of those respective empires at their height could afford more military to defend their homeland and influence their local area that is Europe which is the point of "wealth" from the standpoint of a country. ______________ On July 06 2022 15:32 Magic Powers wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 06 2022 05:22 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2022 08:45 Magic Powers wrote:On July 05 2022 06:49 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Don't know why you are all acting so suprised that Russia is capable of taking a city that has been slowly encircled for weeks, when I did say they are learning lessons and their army is coordinating over a month ago. Can't remember where I got this from, but it was reported that Russia is throwing about 50 thousand artillery shells a day. This sounds like a lot, and it is if if you are in the target area, but for point of comparison WW1 could see a million shells on certain days. There is no chance Russia will run into supply issues as long as Ukraine cannot strike deep into Russian supply points and Russia keeps its slow rate of advance. Russia hasn't learned much of a lesson then, as they've only claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, and in the process they've depleted a lot of their arsenal. Russia is already facing supply issues, and has been for weeks at least. For us to misunderstand the situation would mean that Russia has been significantly holding back so far, which is certainly not the case, with the exception of the nuclear option. They're factually incapable of meaningfully striking deeper into Ukraine. They've directed their fire onto certain regions more than others, resulting in a success like encircling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and that whole region, while at the same time relinguishing control over numerous other regions that nobody has spoken about in recent weeks, but it's been happening continuously. My assumption would be that Russia, in order to have that one success, ordered a reduction of manpower in those other regions. So as has been said a few times, claiming territory is one thing, but holding it is another, and I guess that's especially true during an offensive war. Hence why I'd consider this phase the special stalling operations. I don't see how you can say Russia has claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, when Russia occupies whole areas of Ukraine whereas, Ukraine controls none of Russia's territory. Or perhaps you meant from some indeterminate point of time, in which case you'll have to provide a date, preferably but not neccessarily from within a month ago, so it makes some sort of sense. Then we can compare. Some areas nearby Kharkiv has been regained, but the importance of such pales in comparison to the territory Russia now occupies. The difference in the area, and of the importance of the two cities is a far bigger gain than a few towns and villages, both in the area, and of former population sense and in strategical and logistical sense, as cities are always on major roads and crossroads, far more defensible than villages and farmland, and make for good places to store supplies. As to the rest, it is as you admit, a bunch of assumptions. Hopeful assumptions which I share the intention of, but thoughts and prayers will not help Ukraine. A few weeks ago I posted a comparison of the battle lines. The starting point was after Russia had withdrawn from the North, because I wanted to show how much progress Russia was able to make in the weeks/months since. There was no overall progress, the lines had shifted in both directions about equally. Recently I've made another comparison, but this time I didn't post it because it was the same conclusion of no overall progress. I can post it though so you can compare them. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/1tmGVGn0/Stand-4-April-2022.png) ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/QCVc0jqH/Stand-05-Juli-2022.png) As you can see, in the Severodonetsk region Russia has made significant progress. But if you compare the entire front, Ukraine has pushed back in many other regions. In total it's roughly equal on both sides. This is how I drew my conclusion of Ukraine successfully stalling, and it's why I'm optimistic about Ukraine eventually being able to push Russia back to the borders, unless of course Putin escalates and goes nuclear. Unfortunately I think it's quite likely that it'll take years because Ukrainians are mostly fighting alone. But who knows what'll happen, it's too early to call a definitive outcome. I opened up the two pictures in new tabs, copied them into another image program for direct comparison and it looks like Russia has gained more area overall. Even if we were to accept your premise that the area of occupied territory between those two points in time are the same, the area Russia has gained is incomparable in logistical and strategic worth for reasons I had previously outlined. You can be pretty sure if you like but you’d be wrong. The British empire was a net drain on the public purse. Spanish was weird because they just looted silver from people without bothering to actually govern but as a rule empire has never been profitable. The looting part is fun but then the occupying bit is shit. The best way to do it is privatize the looting but nationalize the governing which is basically the pineapple example mentioned. Make bank from the resources and demand a bailout when the locals try to nationalize your shit. Show nested quote +On July 09 2022 10:32 KwarK wrote:On July 09 2022 04:29 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On July 08 2022 05:25 KwarK wrote:On July 08 2022 04:35 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On July 07 2022 06:20 KwarK wrote:On July 07 2022 06:13 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Pretty sure the Spanish, Portugese, Dutch and British Empire pretty much paid for themselves, in that all of those respective empires at their height could afford more military to defend their homeland and influence their local area that is Europe which is the point of "wealth" from the standpoint of a country. ______________ On July 06 2022 15:32 Magic Powers wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 06 2022 05:22 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2022 08:45 Magic Powers wrote:On July 05 2022 06:49 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Don't know why you are all acting so suprised that Russia is capable of taking a city that has been slowly encircled for weeks, when I did say they are learning lessons and their army is coordinating over a month ago. Can't remember where I got this from, but it was reported that Russia is throwing about 50 thousand artillery shells a day. This sounds like a lot, and it is if if you are in the target area, but for point of comparison WW1 could see a million shells on certain days. There is no chance Russia will run into supply issues as long as Ukraine cannot strike deep into Russian supply points and Russia keeps its slow rate of advance. Russia hasn't learned much of a lesson then, as they've only claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, and in the process they've depleted a lot of their arsenal. Russia is already facing supply issues, and has been for weeks at least. For us to misunderstand the situation would mean that Russia has been significantly holding back so far, which is certainly not the case, with the exception of the nuclear option. They're factually incapable of meaningfully striking deeper into Ukraine. They've directed their fire onto certain regions more than others, resulting in a success like encircling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and that whole region, while at the same time relinguishing control over numerous other regions that nobody has spoken about in recent weeks, but it's been happening continuously. My assumption would be that Russia, in order to have that one success, ordered a reduction of manpower in those other regions. So as has been said a few times, claiming territory is one thing, but holding it is another, and I guess that's especially true during an offensive war. Hence why I'd consider this phase the special stalling operations. I don't see how you can say Russia has claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, when Russia occupies whole areas of Ukraine whereas, Ukraine controls none of Russia's territory. Or perhaps you meant from some indeterminate point of time, in which case you'll have to provide a date, preferably but not neccessarily from within a month ago, so it makes some sort of sense. Then we can compare. Some areas nearby Kharkiv has been regained, but the importance of such pales in comparison to the territory Russia now occupies. The difference in the area, and of the importance of the two cities is a far bigger gain than a few towns and villages, both in the area, and of former population sense and in strategical and logistical sense, as cities are always on major roads and crossroads, far more defensible than villages and farmland, and make for good places to store supplies. As to the rest, it is as you admit, a bunch of assumptions. Hopeful assumptions which I share the intention of, but thoughts and prayers will not help Ukraine. A few weeks ago I posted a comparison of the battle lines. The starting point was after Russia had withdrawn from the North, because I wanted to show how much progress Russia was able to make in the weeks/months since. There was no overall progress, the lines had shifted in both directions about equally. Recently I've made another comparison, but this time I didn't post it because it was the same conclusion of no overall progress. I can post it though so you can compare them. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/1tmGVGn0/Stand-4-April-2022.png) ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/QCVc0jqH/Stand-05-Juli-2022.png) As you can see, in the Severodonetsk region Russia has made significant progress. But if you compare the entire front, Ukraine has pushed back in many other regions. In total it's roughly equal on both sides. This is how I drew my conclusion of Ukraine successfully stalling, and it's why I'm optimistic about Ukraine eventually being able to push Russia back to the borders, unless of course Putin escalates and goes nuclear. Unfortunately I think it's quite likely that it'll take years because Ukrainians are mostly fighting alone. But who knows what'll happen, it's too early to call a definitive outcome. I opened up the two pictures in new tabs, copied them into another image program for direct comparison and it looks like Russia has gained more area overall. Even if we were to accept your premise that the area of occupied territory between those two points in time are the same, the area Russia has gained is incomparable in logistical and strategic worth for reasons I had previously outlined. You can be pretty sure if you like but you’d be wrong. The British empire was a net drain on the public purse. Spanish was weird because they just looted silver from people without bothering to actually govern but as a rule empire has never been profitable. The looting part is fun but then the occupying bit is shit. The best way to do it is privatize the looting but nationalize the governing which is basically the pineapple example mentioned. Make bank from the resources and demand a bailout when the locals try to nationalize your shit. Lets go through the listed empires one by one. Portugal, small, one sole land neighbout greatly more populous than it is, first European maritime empire, powerful enough not be utterly dominated by the then Castille, though diplomatic marriage played a part. Spain which you wierdly acknowledge greatly prospered with it's empire then dismisses this, an empire allowed it to press European claims it otherwise could not had with the great wealth allowing Spain to hold massive and sophisticated armies of the time, as well as a large navy, influencing European politics greatly, though most notably affecting by fighting the rest of Europe at the same time. Twice. They lost though. Netherlands, the birth of Netherlands against the then immense armies and navy of the Spanish army is also the birth of the Dutch Empire, which allowed the nation to accrue enough wealth over the course of about 80 years to not only survive but prosper against the behemoth of the Spanish Empire at the time, with mercenaries and forts brought by control of trade by the Dutch through their empire. The lowland rebellion that would become Netherlands if not for the wealth of the Dutch Empire; they are one and the same intrinsically linked at the time, navy and army funded by the Ducth Empire. Britain, a long history but mostly speaking the wealth of Empire allowed a navy and a trained professional army as opposed to conscript army which was able to greatly interfere on the continent almost at will. Most obvious would be both world wars, being able to afford a navy that would not had existed without funds from empire, which essentially blockaded or otherwise exert sea control over almost the entirety of the Atlantic, North and Mediterrean sea and bringing hundreds of thousands of overseas troops, which otherwise would not have existed if not for empire. Lets not forget the more recent examples of that period of the land empires of the Russian Empire and Chinese Empire, which through lands conquered greatly increased the wealth and power of their nation. Throughout the dawn of history, land was power and conquering land and being an empire was immensely profitable for the nation. It's not really debateable, as it is empire which always prospered and those that could not be locally powerful became vassals or were conquered in turn. Some places were a drain on a martime Empire, mostly inland Africa which was for the most part only conquered during the relatively late Scramble for Africa period (often suprisingly cheap in terms of manpower), but in terms of monetary power and in military power, the true and most important expression of wealth from the viewpoint of nation, conquering land very much paid for themselves. Of course all this is all totally irrelevant in the modern world, where wealth is no longer so much a matter of agriculture and natural resources and unlikely to be worthwhile, at least without essentially genociding the local population. Russia isn't seeking to occupy Ukraine for a notion of wealth, but for political and idealogical grounds. ____________________ On July 07 2022 15:41 Magic Powers wrote:On July 07 2022 06:13 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Pretty sure the Spanish, Portugese, Dutch and British Empire pretty much paid for themselves, in that all of those respective empires at their height could afford more military to defend their homeland and influence their local area that is Europe which is the point of "wealth" from the standpoint of a country. ______________ On July 06 2022 15:32 Magic Powers wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 06 2022 05:22 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2022 08:45 Magic Powers wrote:On July 05 2022 06:49 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Don't know why you are all acting so suprised that Russia is capable of taking a city that has been slowly encircled for weeks, when I did say they are learning lessons and their army is coordinating over a month ago. Can't remember where I got this from, but it was reported that Russia is throwing about 50 thousand artillery shells a day. This sounds like a lot, and it is if if you are in the target area, but for point of comparison WW1 could see a million shells on certain days. There is no chance Russia will run into supply issues as long as Ukraine cannot strike deep into Russian supply points and Russia keeps its slow rate of advance. Russia hasn't learned much of a lesson then, as they've only claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, and in the process they've depleted a lot of their arsenal. Russia is already facing supply issues, and has been for weeks at least. For us to misunderstand the situation would mean that Russia has been significantly holding back so far, which is certainly not the case, with the exception of the nuclear option. They're factually incapable of meaningfully striking deeper into Ukraine. They've directed their fire onto certain regions more than others, resulting in a success like encircling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and that whole region, while at the same time relinguishing control over numerous other regions that nobody has spoken about in recent weeks, but it's been happening continuously. My assumption would be that Russia, in order to have that one success, ordered a reduction of manpower in those other regions. So as has been said a few times, claiming territory is one thing, but holding it is another, and I guess that's especially true during an offensive war. Hence why I'd consider this phase the special stalling operations. I don't see how you can say Russia has claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, when Russia occupies whole areas of Ukraine whereas, Ukraine controls none of Russia's territory. Or perhaps you meant from some indeterminate point of time, in which case you'll have to provide a date, preferably but not neccessarily from within a month ago, so it makes some sort of sense. Then we can compare. Some areas nearby Kharkiv has been regained, but the importance of such pales in comparison to the territory Russia now occupies. The difference in the area, and of the importance of the two cities is a far bigger gain than a few towns and villages, both in the area, and of former population sense and in strategical and logistical sense, as cities are always on major roads and crossroads, far more defensible than villages and farmland, and make for good places to store supplies. As to the rest, it is as you admit, a bunch of assumptions. Hopeful assumptions which I share the intention of, but thoughts and prayers will not help Ukraine. A few weeks ago I posted a comparison of the battle lines. The starting point was after Russia had withdrawn from the North, because I wanted to show how much progress Russia was able to make in the weeks/months since. There was no overall progress, the lines had shifted in both directions about equally. Recently I've made another comparison, but this time I didn't post it because it was the same conclusion of no overall progress. I can post it though so you can compare them. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/1tmGVGn0/Stand-4-April-2022.png) ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/QCVc0jqH/Stand-05-Juli-2022.png) As you can see, in the Severodonetsk region Russia has made significant progress. But if you compare the entire front, Ukraine has pushed back in many other regions. In total it's roughly equal on both sides. This is how I drew my conclusion of Ukraine successfully stalling, and it's why I'm optimistic about Ukraine eventually being able to push Russia back to the borders, unless of course Putin escalates and goes nuclear. Unfortunately I think it's quite likely that it'll take years because Ukrainians are mostly fighting alone. But who knows what'll happen, it's too early to call a definitive outcome. I opened up the two pictures in new tabs, copied them into another image program for direct comparison and it looks like Russia has gained more area overall. Even if we were to accept your premise that the area of occupied territory between those two points in time are the same, the area Russia has gained is incomparable in logistical and strategic worth for reasons I had previously outlined. These are the areas gained by each side since April 4th. Dark green is for Ukraine, dark red is for Russia. To me it's clear that Russia has gained a lot more ground in mostly one region, while Ukraine has gained a lot more ground in many regions. Overall it's even. But I'll let other people be the judge. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/2yKc7bw1/Stand-4-April-2022-Green-Line-overlay.png) Still looks very much Russia has gained to me and very much so that Russia has gained far more important territory. Supposing that the area has remained the same ignores the importance of the occupied area, but makes for a nice story I guess. Great for morale boost, not useful for understand what has or is currently occuring. I'll note that the green areas are somewhat dubious as it seems especially for the region past Kherson to simply include any area that Russians have penetrated to, even if they never truly had control of the area, but I suppose such is the fog of war. If as you say, Russian occupied areas gained is from withdrawing soldiers from other areas, that is an indication of Russia coordinating better rather than the early stages of the war. There's really isn't anything to gain by thinking Russians cannot learn. Afterall, Colonels ultimately do not want to die, and no commander, no matter how callous Russians seem, wants the men under their command to die and will be willing to adapt to acheive their objectives. Think I, like you, will leave those words and this topic at that. ___________ On July 07 2022 17:18 r00ty wrote: Just two thoughts: I don't think there is enough pressure on other oil producing countries to increase/maximize production. There should be more oversight and transparency for the companies, it seems like a giant cash grab atm. Oil/gas going down is what hurts the Putin regime the most.
Also, as one poster poited out a couple of weeks ago my country, its politicians and people are highly unrealistic about its production and consumption of energy. If we want all electric cars, Germany would have to at least triple its electric energy production. And on top the grid is not made for that, think people coming home from work to quick charge their electric cars at basically the same time. That peak would require an amount of battery capacity or an amount of regulators (power plants) that's not cost effective or even realistic considering we don't have that much space. It is possible with batteries and energy management systems in nearly every household but that will cost a bit.
I think that my government is still gambling on the Russian gas to be back soon and activating the 2 new Nordstream pipelines and the connected infrastructure as soon as possible. There is no real plan B. Unfortunately we're undermining
that by throwing money at Putin. Saudi Arabia seem to be refusing to pump more oil, which is a remarkable contrast to the time when Iran was sanctioned, when Saudi Arabia opened their taps and almost bankrupted Russia and Venezuela as a side effect. Turns out Saudi Arabia does prefers to do as is beneficial to them, and in this case Saudi Arabia is enjoying the benefits of higher oil prices. No. Your argument essentially runs “Britain had an empire and also Britain could afford an empire therefore the empire paid for itself”. It just doesn’t follow. It never paid for itself. No, I pretty much explicitly wrote Britain could afford a navy and army that could influence continental Europe that it wouldn't had been able to if not for empire. But hey create a strawman to burn down of your own accord. On July 08 2022 10:49 r00ty wrote:On July 08 2022 04:35 Dangermousecatdog wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 07 2022 06:20 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2022 06:13 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Pretty sure the Spanish, Portugese, Dutch and British Empire pretty much paid for themselves, in that all of those respective empires at their height could afford more military to defend their homeland and influence their local area that is Europe which is the point of "wealth" from the standpoint of a country. ______________ On July 06 2022 15:32 Magic Powers wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 06 2022 05:22 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2022 08:45 Magic Powers wrote:On July 05 2022 06:49 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Don't know why you are all acting so suprised that Russia is capable of taking a city that has been slowly encircled for weeks, when I did say they are learning lessons and their army is coordinating over a month ago. Can't remember where I got this from, but it was reported that Russia is throwing about 50 thousand artillery shells a day. This sounds like a lot, and it is if if you are in the target area, but for point of comparison WW1 could see a million shells on certain days. There is no chance Russia will run into supply issues as long as Ukraine cannot strike deep into Russian supply points and Russia keeps its slow rate of advance. Russia hasn't learned much of a lesson then, as they've only claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, and in the process they've depleted a lot of their arsenal. Russia is already facing supply issues, and has been for weeks at least. For us to misunderstand the situation would mean that Russia has been significantly holding back so far, which is certainly not the case, with the exception of the nuclear option. They're factually incapable of meaningfully striking deeper into Ukraine. They've directed their fire onto certain regions more than others, resulting in a success like encircling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and that whole region, while at the same time relinguishing control over numerous other regions that nobody has spoken about in recent weeks, but it's been happening continuously. My assumption would be that Russia, in order to have that one success, ordered a reduction of manpower in those other regions. So as has been said a few times, claiming territory is one thing, but holding it is another, and I guess that's especially true during an offensive war. Hence why I'd consider this phase the special stalling operations. I don't see how you can say Russia has claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, when Russia occupies whole areas of Ukraine whereas, Ukraine controls none of Russia's territory. Or perhaps you meant from some indeterminate point of time, in which case you'll have to provide a date, preferably but not neccessarily from within a month ago, so it makes some sort of sense. Then we can compare. Some areas nearby Kharkiv has been regained, but the importance of such pales in comparison to the territory Russia now occupies. The difference in the area, and of the importance of the two cities is a far bigger gain than a few towns and villages, both in the area, and of former population sense and in strategical and logistical sense, as cities are always on major roads and crossroads, far more defensible than villages and farmland, and make for good places to store supplies. As to the rest, it is as you admit, a bunch of assumptions. Hopeful assumptions which I share the intention of, but thoughts and prayers will not help Ukraine. A few weeks ago I posted a comparison of the battle lines. The starting point was after Russia had withdrawn from the North, because I wanted to show how much progress Russia was able to make in the weeks/months since. There was no overall progress, the lines had shifted in both directions about equally. Recently I've made another comparison, but this time I didn't post it because it was the same conclusion of no overall progress. I can post it though so you can compare them. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/1tmGVGn0/Stand-4-April-2022.png) ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/QCVc0jqH/Stand-05-Juli-2022.png) As you can see, in the Severodonetsk region Russia has made significant progress. But if you compare the entire front, Ukraine has pushed back in many other regions. In total it's roughly equal on both sides. This is how I drew my conclusion of Ukraine successfully stalling, and it's why I'm optimistic about Ukraine eventually being able to push Russia back to the borders, unless of course Putin escalates and goes nuclear. Unfortunately I think it's quite likely that it'll take years because Ukrainians are mostly fighting alone. But who knows what'll happen, it's too early to call a definitive outcome. I opened up the two pictures in new tabs, copied them into another image program for direct comparison and it looks like Russia has gained more area overall. Even if we were to accept your premise that the area of occupied territory between those two points in time are the same, the area Russia has gained is incomparable in logistical and strategic worth for reasons I had previously outlined. You can be pretty sure if you like but you’d be wrong. The British empire was a net drain on the public purse. Spanish was weird because they just looted silver from people without bothering to actually govern but as a rule empire has never been profitable. The looting part is fun but then the occupying bit is shit. The best way to do it is privatize the looting but nationalize the governing which is basically the pineapple example mentioned. Make bank from the resources and demand a bailout when the locals try to nationalize your shit. Lets go through the listed empires one by one. Portugal, small, one sole land neighbout greatly more populous than it is, first European maritime empire, powerful enough not be utterly dominated by the then Castille, though diplomatic marriage played a part. Spain which you wierdly acknowledge greatly prospered with it's empire then dismisses this, an empire allowed it to press European claims it otherwise could not had with the great wealth allowing Spain to hold massive and sophisticated armies of the time, as well as a large navy, influencing European politics greatly, though most notably affecting by fighting the rest of Europe at the same time. Twice. They lost though. Netherlands, the birth of Netherlands against the then immense armies and navy of the Spanish army is also the birth of the Dutch Empire, which allowed the nation to accrue enough wealth over the course of about 80 years to not only survive but prosper against the behemoth of the Spanish Empire at the time, with mercenaries and forts brought by control of trade by the Dutch through their empire. The lowland rebellion that would become Netherlands if not for the wealth of the Dutch Empire; they are one and the same intrinsically linked at the time, navy and army funded by the Ducth Empire. Britain, a long history but mostly speaking the wealth of Empire allowed a navy and a trained professional army as opposed to conscript army which was able to greatly interfere on the continent almost at will. Most obvious would be both world wars, being able to afford a navy that would not had existed without funds from empire, which essentially blockaded or otherwise exert sea control over almost the entirety of the Atlantic, North and Mediterrean sea and bringing hundreds of thousands of overseas troops, which otherwise would not have existed if not for empire. Lets not forget the more recent examples of that period of the land empires of the Russian Empire and Chinese Empire, which through lands conquered greatly increased the wealth and power of their nation. Throughout the dawn of history, land was power and conquering land and being an empire was immensely profitable for the nation. It's not really debateable, as it is empire which always prospered and those that could not be locally powerful became vassals or were conquered in turn. Some places were a drain on a martime Empire, mostly inland Africa which was for the most part only conquered during the relatively late Scramble for Africa period (often suprisingly cheap in terms of manpower), but in terms of monetary power and in military power, the true and most important expression of wealth from the viewpoint of nation, conquering land very much paid for themselves. Of course all this is all totally irrelevant in the modern world, where wealth is no longer so much a matter of agriculture and natural resources and unlikely to be worthwhile, at least without essentially genociding the local population. Russia isn't seeking to occupy Ukraine for a notion of wealth, but for political and idealogical grounds. ____________________ On July 07 2022 15:41 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2022 06:13 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Pretty sure the Spanish, Portugese, Dutch and British Empire pretty much paid for themselves, in that all of those respective empires at their height could afford more military to defend their homeland and influence their local area that is Europe which is the point of "wealth" from the standpoint of a country. ______________ On July 06 2022 15:32 Magic Powers wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 06 2022 05:22 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2022 08:45 Magic Powers wrote:On July 05 2022 06:49 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Don't know why you are all acting so suprised that Russia is capable of taking a city that has been slowly encircled for weeks, when I did say they are learning lessons and their army is coordinating over a month ago. Can't remember where I got this from, but it was reported that Russia is throwing about 50 thousand artillery shells a day. This sounds like a lot, and it is if if you are in the target area, but for point of comparison WW1 could see a million shells on certain days. There is no chance Russia will run into supply issues as long as Ukraine cannot strike deep into Russian supply points and Russia keeps its slow rate of advance. Russia hasn't learned much of a lesson then, as they've only claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, and in the process they've depleted a lot of their arsenal. Russia is already facing supply issues, and has been for weeks at least. For us to misunderstand the situation would mean that Russia has been significantly holding back so far, which is certainly not the case, with the exception of the nuclear option. They're factually incapable of meaningfully striking deeper into Ukraine. They've directed their fire onto certain regions more than others, resulting in a success like encircling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and that whole region, while at the same time relinguishing control over numerous other regions that nobody has spoken about in recent weeks, but it's been happening continuously. My assumption would be that Russia, in order to have that one success, ordered a reduction of manpower in those other regions. So as has been said a few times, claiming territory is one thing, but holding it is another, and I guess that's especially true during an offensive war. Hence why I'd consider this phase the special stalling operations. I don't see how you can say Russia has claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, when Russia occupies whole areas of Ukraine whereas, Ukraine controls none of Russia's territory. Or perhaps you meant from some indeterminate point of time, in which case you'll have to provide a date, preferably but not neccessarily from within a month ago, so it makes some sort of sense. Then we can compare. Some areas nearby Kharkiv has been regained, but the importance of such pales in comparison to the territory Russia now occupies. The difference in the area, and of the importance of the two cities is a far bigger gain than a few towns and villages, both in the area, and of former population sense and in strategical and logistical sense, as cities are always on major roads and crossroads, far more defensible than villages and farmland, and make for good places to store supplies. As to the rest, it is as you admit, a bunch of assumptions. Hopeful assumptions which I share the intention of, but thoughts and prayers will not help Ukraine. A few weeks ago I posted a comparison of the battle lines. The starting point was after Russia had withdrawn from the North, because I wanted to show how much progress Russia was able to make in the weeks/months since. There was no overall progress, the lines had shifted in both directions about equally. Recently I've made another comparison, but this time I didn't post it because it was the same conclusion of no overall progress. I can post it though so you can compare them. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/1tmGVGn0/Stand-4-April-2022.png) ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/QCVc0jqH/Stand-05-Juli-2022.png) As you can see, in the Severodonetsk region Russia has made significant progress. But if you compare the entire front, Ukraine has pushed back in many other regions. In total it's roughly equal on both sides. This is how I drew my conclusion of Ukraine successfully stalling, and it's why I'm optimistic about Ukraine eventually being able to push Russia back to the borders, unless of course Putin escalates and goes nuclear. Unfortunately I think it's quite likely that it'll take years because Ukrainians are mostly fighting alone. But who knows what'll happen, it's too early to call a definitive outcome. I opened up the two pictures in new tabs, copied them into another image program for direct comparison and it looks like Russia has gained more area overall. Even if we were to accept your premise that the area of occupied territory between those two points in time are the same, the area Russia has gained is incomparable in logistical and strategic worth for reasons I had previously outlined. These are the areas gained by each side since April 4th. Dark green is for Ukraine, dark red is for Russia. To me it's clear that Russia has gained a lot more ground in mostly one region, while Ukraine has gained a lot more ground in many regions. Overall it's even. But I'll let other people be the judge. ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/2yKc7bw1/Stand-4-April-2022-Green-Line-overlay.png) Still looks very much Russia has gained to me and very much so that Russia has gained far more important territory. Supposing that the area has remained the same ignores the importance of the occupied area, but makes for a nice story I guess. Great for morale boost, not useful for understand what has or is currently occuring. I'll note that the green areas are somewhat dubious as it seems especially for the region past Kherson to simply include any area that Russians have penetrated to, even if they never truly had control of the area, but I suppose such is the fog of war. If as you say, Russian occupied areas gained is from withdrawing soldiers from other areas, that is an indication of Russia coordinating better rather than the early stages of the war. There's really isn't anything to gain by thinking Russians cannot learn. Afterall, Colonels ultimately do not want to die, and no commander, no matter how callous Russians seem, wants the men under their command to die and will be willing to adapt to acheive their objectives. Think I, like you, will leave those words and this topic at that. ___________ On July 07 2022 17:18 r00ty wrote: Just two thoughts: I don't think there is enough pressure on other oil producing countries to increase/maximize production. There should be more oversight and transparency for the companies, it seems like a giant cash grab atm. Oil/gas going down is what hurts the Putin regime the most.
Also, as one poster poited out a couple of weeks ago my country, its politicians and people are highly unrealistic about its production and consumption of energy. If we want all electric cars, Germany would have to at least triple its electric energy production. And on top the grid is not made for that, think people coming home from work to quick charge their electric cars at basically the same time. That peak would require an amount of battery capacity or an amount of regulators (power plants) that's not cost effective or even realistic considering we don't have that much space. It is possible with batteries and energy management systems in nearly every household but that will cost a bit.
I think that my government is still gambling on the Russian gas to be back soon and activating the 2 new Nordstream pipelines and the connected infrastructure as soon as possible. There is no real plan B. Unfortunately we're undermining
that by throwing money at Putin. Saudi Arabia seem to be refusing to pump more oil, which is a remarkable contrast to the time when Iran was sanctioned, when Saudi Arabia opened their taps and almost bankrupted Russia and Venezuela as a side effect. Turns out Saudi Arabia does prefers to do as is beneficial to them, and in this case Saudi Arabia is enjoying the benefits of higher oil prices. Exactly. And as if they don't have enough already. Billions upon billions of dollars are made on the backs of the Ukrainian people and by putting us all on the road to global recession. This could be ended without firing a bullet, but "the west" is too reliant on and toothless toward the autocrats in this world sitting on the oil and gas. Belarus lol. If they send troops who is gonna control the people at home? I wouldn't go so far as to say end the war without firing a bullet, but certainly if the other non-Russian OPEC members would pump more, it would be rather beneficial to Europe. Don't worry too much at throwing money at Putin though, when winter comes and Putin turns off the gas completely, there will be no money for putin either. Your new argument is also wrong. Are those not abrasive? Are you not heckling, knowing that you have Kwark a mod safe at your back whilst I am facing dismissive response from a mod? _____________ I could respond like Kwark. I could respond by telling Kwark he didn't read my post every time. Or he is wrong every time. And he responds continuously as he does by chanting the nonsense over and over. I can do the same too ad infinitum, but if I were to undertake that experiment I would find myself quickly warned and banned and Kwark would escape scot free simply because he is a mod. I don’t know why you felt the need to attempt to correct me in the first place when you clearly don’t know anything about the subject.
It’s weird. You started an argument then came here to complain when I refused to dignify your ignorance. Are you not embarrassed to be the way you are? I would be if I were you.
Every time you attempt to argue with me about stuff you know nothing about you only get naked contempt for your efforts. You should really stop trying to get responses from me because I have nothing else to offer you. The contempt isn’t going to somehow disappear because you’re now whining about it.
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Of course I would recieve naked contempt from you, as you seem to find satisfaction in saying and doing so, as you are able to do so as a mod. We could had a reasoned argument, but you immediately, as usual, leapt to being a prick, as can be seen here when you say "you refused to dignify your ignorance", when really you really written in response was "you are wrong over and over." If you was not a mod, you would had been warned and banned for such behaviour a long time ago.
If I responded in kind and acted like you, to always say "read my post" again and "you are wrong" over and over as an argument, I would find myself quickly banned, whilst you are free to do so.
Kwark regards himself in acting in naked contempt for me, can be seen to insult me, but where are the mods agreeing this behaviour should be prevented by warns and bans as others are? This is inconsistant and an example of favouritism.
TL.net should not be a place where Kwark gets to satsify his ego, where he can freely call others ignorant when it is he himself who is ignorant.
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Lets actually go through post by post shall we? https://tl.net/forum/general/471672-european-politico-economics-qa-mega-thread?page=1361#27220
On April 12 2022 03:48 Dangermousecatdog wrote: So again I will ask, can you vote in the French election Nebuchad? Are you, or are you not, voting for Le Pen? If not, who and why?
Also...imagine describing France as a neoliberal system. At that point the word has no meaning, much like how some people throw "you all on the left" around. It's no longer a descriptor of a set of policies, but a tribal rallying call and identity against an "other". How would you define neoliberalism? Why can't you answer a yes or no question? Is it because you don't want to reveal yourself as a liar? Why do you insist on calling France as a neoliberal system, a ridiculous assertion, and refuse to define neoliberalism. There is no reason to not do so in a discussion.
https://tl.net/forum/general/471672-european-politico-economics-qa-mega-thread?page=1362#27224
On April 13 2022 04:13 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2022 10:38 Nebuchad wrote:On April 12 2022 09:42 Biff The Understudy wrote:On April 12 2022 03:48 Dangermousecatdog wrote: So again I will ask, can you vote in the French election Nebuchad? Are you, or are you not, voting for Le Pen? If not, who and why?
Also...imagine describing France as a neoliberal system. At that point the word has no meaning, much like how some people throw "you all on the left" around. It's no longer a descriptor of a set of policies, but a tribal rallying call and identity against an "other". How would you define neoliberalism? Talking of Macron or France as neoliberal is about as good of a use of the concept as when the tea party called Obama a communist. Neoliberal has a meaning, historical and ideological and none of it has anything to do with basically anything nor anyone in France. Almost everytime it’s used these days it’s a red flag that the conversation is going to go nowhere. The similarity comes in the political mechanism. Macron aims to represent the left choice, and someone at the far right will represent the right choice. The "leftist" liberal choice in that system will be to the left of standard neoliberalism, and the rightwing choice will be to the right of standard neoliberalism. As such, sometimes the "left" will win, sometimes the "right" will win, and as long as the right doesn't go full fascist neoliberalism is satisfied with whoever wins. Similarly in the US Biden is to the left of the standard neoliberal position on some topics, and that doesn't make the US suddenly a social democracy. What is most likely to happen in the next five years is Macron will continue to prop up far right nonsense so that the political conversation of France revolves around the far right and it remains the enemy to fight against. That being said, the system is fragile: Mélenchon is doing way better than expected. So it's not set in stone that Macron will succeed in implementing the system he wants. Is it really that hard to answer a yes or no question on whether you can vote in the French election. If I missed it, I apologise and you'll just have to repeat it. You still havent defined neoliberalism, except to comment somehow that you beleive in France neoliberalism always wins in the French election, which is as far as reality can possibly be. This seems reasonable to me. What is the problem here?
https://tl.net/forum/general/471672-european-politico-economics-qa-mega-thread?page=1365#27288
On April 21 2022 04:29 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2022 03:25 Nebuchad wrote: I'm of the opinion that dehumanizing people is in most cases a worse indication of character than burning cars is. That's a somewhat random one shot sentence. What "people" is behing dehumanized here? A book is not a person. A religion is not people. No one here has implied or argued that some people are not humans. Seems reasonable to me. It has to be asked again, what "people" is being dehumanized here? A book continues to not be a person, just as a religion continues to not be a person. Your refusal to answer reflects poorly on you, not me.
https://tl.net/forum/general/471672-european-politico-economics-qa-mega-thread?page=1368#27357
On April 26 2022 06:01 Dangermousecatdog wrote: That's some alt reality there in a world where right after Trump, there was Biden. And after that, is up to the crystal ball. Enough of your messianic preachings already. USA is not the world and you still don't seem to know what neoliberal means, which will probably make the rest of this fall on deaf ears. Though I can agree that Macron is nominally Neoliberal and Le Pen is far right, you are going to have to show examples from every other country and their democratic systems that this is the case. Most notably this is not the case in UK. or anywhere else in Europe and even then who can say what the next few years the electoral landscape can bring?
But we can look across the world and see that in every non-democratic country, far right policies has essentially and innately taken root as a matter of national policy, with the best example currently being Russia, an authoritarian model that has remade itself into a model of fascism to the extent that it is now currently in it's second month of the invasion of Ukraine. Shift to the far right indeed.
India too has been shifting to far right extremism against Muslims, and have been doing so without a neoliberal option, or indeed any notion of neoliberalism at all. There really isn't many places in the world where minorities are tolerated in any greate numbers, and most of these are in the Western world. With the exception of perhaps Japan who has both managed to be shifting towards neoliberal policies and being far right at the same time. And so your world looks very small indeed. Do you really have a problem with this post? Only the third sentence could be said to not be polite, but it is very soft indeed, especially considering what you've been writing recently in the thread. The rest are examples, combined with arguements that refutes your arguement. Your refusal to discuss in kind, reflects poorly on you, not me.
https://tl.net/forum/general/471672-european-politico-economics-qa-mega-thread?page=1369#27371
On April 27 2022 04:17 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2022 06:38 Nebuchad wrote:On April 26 2022 06:24 JimmiC wrote:On April 26 2022 05:41 Nebuchad wrote:On April 26 2022 05:24 JimmiC wrote:On April 26 2022 04:34 Nebuchad wrote:On April 25 2022 19:35 Biff The Understudy wrote:On April 25 2022 10:33 Nebuchad wrote:On April 25 2022 09:47 Mohdoo wrote: Now that Macron blew up Le Pen yet again, can we just skip the hype next time? It seems the only way Macron loses is if he is eliminated early. How long could Macron keep getting re-elected? Would his party keep dominance even after him? Based on how neoliberal elections work it's likely that Marion Maréchal wins next time around. But the left is still stronger than I expected so it's possible that things pan out differently. One possible outcome is left vs far right in the first round, far right wins second round and this is used to pressure normies into not voting left. Lol néoliberal elections. How much more can you keep abusing and emptying of all content and intelligence that poor word? The far right doesn’t win because a majority of voters absolutely despise them and their uber racist rethoric, and that a surprising number of french are not on board with the “anti system” extremist rethoric. The fact that populists are spred equally between the far left and far right also gives moderates a much bigger margin. Please remember this if the system doesn't change and the far right ultimately wins, like it has in every similar system across the world. People will tell you that something else is to blame, probably the left specifically, and you'll be tempted to believe them because you love simple answers and you're projecting that onto populists. We won't be to blame, the system will. Can you source or give some examples of your bold claim? And what system or systems you are referring too? Systems with a neoliberal electoral choice, where one of the main choices is a liberal and the other main choice is far right. We can observe that in politics the power tends to shift from one of the main sides to the other, as the person in power disappoints some people and they are drawn to the most normalized opposition. It is very rare that this balance doesn't occur. You can see it happening in the US right now, as most people agree that whichever ghoul is produced by the republican party will be a huge favourite next election. US is a different animal with a 2 party FTP system and so far even there the far right has not won, though it does appear to be winning. Can you also let me know what countries have neoliberal electoral choice? I'm guessing France does based on the topic being discussed. Does Canada? Australia? New Zealand? Norway? What is the defining characteristic or characteristics? Is it when the second option is far right? If the Far left had beaten out Le Pen for the second spot would France still be neoliberal electoral choice? The far right has won in the US, multiple times. Not sure what you're talking about. Do you dispute that Trump is far right? The main examples are the US and UK, as they both underwent that change much earlier than other places. I don't know about every country's politics (and don't see much relevance to that) but from what I know Canada has a similar system, New Zealand and Norway don't. France wasn't a neoliberal system until Macron, as is obvious and I already explained during the last sealioning session. Macron's main contribution to the non-international politics of France has been to try and shift to a neoliberal system. If Mélenchon had been to the second round, that attempt would have failed, and we'd be in the good future. But it didn't, and the most likely outcome is that it won't happen next time either. Macron holding neoliberal ideas does not make France a neoliberal system. A country is not their democraticly elected president. UK again, does not have this notion of neoliberal against the far right, more of a case that neoliberalism has joined hands with the far right, whilst at the same time trying to allude to both and deny both in a certain party is the current dynamic. Don't know why you keep repeating that UK is neoliberal vs far right, which suggest you know nothing about UK. Who in their right mind would call Boris Johnson as either neoliberal or far right and the Labour party as neoliberal or far right? A unique French happenstance does not make a broader "inherent system" you think is occuring. Show nested quote +On April 26 2022 08:18 Nebuchad wrote:On April 26 2022 07:49 JimmiC wrote:On April 26 2022 07:08 Nebuchad wrote:On April 26 2022 06:56 JimmiC wrote:On April 26 2022 06:38 Nebuchad wrote:On April 26 2022 06:24 JimmiC wrote:On April 26 2022 05:41 Nebuchad wrote:On April 26 2022 05:24 JimmiC wrote:On April 26 2022 04:34 Nebuchad wrote: [quote]
Please remember this if the system doesn't change and the far right ultimately wins, like it has in every similar system across the world. People will tell you that something else is to blame, probably the left specifically, and you'll be tempted to believe them because you love simple answers and you're projecting that onto populists. We won't be to blame, the system will. Can you source or give some examples of your bold claim? And what system or systems you are referring too? Systems with a neoliberal electoral choice, where one of the main choices is a liberal and the other main choice is far right. We can observe that in politics the power tends to shift from one of the main sides to the other, as the person in power disappoints some people and they are drawn to the most normalized opposition. It is very rare that this balance doesn't occur. You can see it happening in the US right now, as most people agree that whichever ghoul is produced by the republican party will be a huge favourite next election. US is a different animal with a 2 party FTP system and so far even there the far right has not won, though it does appear to be winning. Can you also let me know what countries have neoliberal electoral choice? I'm guessing France does based on the topic being discussed. Does Canada? Australia? New Zealand? Norway? What is the defining characteristic or characteristics? Is it when the second option is far right? If the Far left had beaten out Le Pen for the second spot would France still be neoliberal electoral choice? The far right has won in the US, multiple times. Not sure what you're talking about. Do you dispute that Trump is far right? The main examples are the US and UK, as they both underwent that change much earlier than other places. I don't know about every country's politics (and don't see much relevance to that) but from what I know Canada has a similar system, New Zealand and Norway don't. France wasn't a neoliberal system until Macron, as is obvious and I already explained during the last sealioning session. Macron's main contribution to the non-international politics of France has been to try and shift to a neoliberal system. If Mélenchon had been to the second round, that attempt would have failed, and we'd be in the good future. But it didn't, and the most likely outcome is that it won't happen next time either. The Far right has not ultimately won in the US. How could have they done that multiple times? That makes no sense. How did he change the system? I'm very confused on how whos in second place determines the political system. And how you have determined that Macron somehow changed it and wants Le Pen in second? Well they voted for some far right dude and that dude got elected. In electoral politics this is usually referred to as winning, I don't know what you want from me. He changed the system in that usually France had a leftist dude and a liberal dude squaring off in the playoffs. When Macron came in, people were dissatisfied with the previous left leader, Hollande, and as such it was time for the rightwing to have the presidency. But they picked Fillon as a candidate and Fillon fucked up by having his corruption exposed, which allowed for a center vs far right election instead of a left vs right election. As a leader, Macron used a lot of the comm power available to him to legitimize the themes and ideas of the far right and delegitimize the left, which made it more likely that this election would have a second round of him vs the far right. It is most likely that he'll pursue that strategy again in the next five years, and due to the standard balance of disappointed voters that makes the far right a favourite to win, if not next time, at least eventually (but like I said, most likely next time in my opinion) Most people use ultimate winner as the winner at the end, interesting to know you do not, I apologize, I guess many groups are ultimately winning all the time. Cc cc It sounds like the right fucked up and that created your version of neo liberalism. Can you give me some examples of him using the comm power to legitimize the themes and ideas of the far right? From what I have seen he been trying to fed off both sides and be a "moderate"has to appeal to as many in the middle as possible. A lot of the prevalent french political discourse in the last few years originated in the far right, and prominent members of Macron's government relayed it as true with no pushback. Islamoleftism, the idea that the left and academia are allied with islamists to overthrow France, was quoted positively by several ministers including the minister of Education. The idea is that the left is no longer "republican" and should be discarded, dangers of wokism were a common topic, as was insecurity. Islamophobia is normalized, with several non far right voices saying that the term should be abandoned but I guess a lot of people on this forum find that good so whatever. Edit: forgot about a personal favourite, that one time Darmanin (interior minister I believe) debated Marine Le Pen and told her she was too weak on immigration and she should take some vitamins. How exactly can it be Macron's fault that whilst at the same time being a neliberal pushing neoliberal policies that at the same time make France a neoliberal country, it is also Macron's fault that a completely different ideology that "A lot of the prevalent french political discourse in the last few years originated in the far right" is also being pushed. This is like holding two opposite thoughts in one's head. Show nested quote +On April 26 2022 11:41 Nebuchad wrote:On April 26 2022 10:19 JimmiC wrote:On April 26 2022 08:18 Nebuchad wrote:On April 26 2022 07:49 JimmiC wrote:On April 26 2022 07:08 Nebuchad wrote:On April 26 2022 06:56 JimmiC wrote:On April 26 2022 06:38 Nebuchad wrote:On April 26 2022 06:24 JimmiC wrote:On April 26 2022 05:41 Nebuchad wrote: [quote]
Systems with a neoliberal electoral choice, where one of the main choices is a liberal and the other main choice is far right. We can observe that in politics the power tends to shift from one of the main sides to the other, as the person in power disappoints some people and they are drawn to the most normalized opposition. It is very rare that this balance doesn't occur. You can see it happening in the US right now, as most people agree that whichever ghoul is produced by the republican party will be a huge favourite next election. US is a different animal with a 2 party FTP system and so far even there the far right has not won, though it does appear to be winning. Can you also let me know what countries have neoliberal electoral choice? I'm guessing France does based on the topic being discussed. Does Canada? Australia? New Zealand? Norway? What is the defining characteristic or characteristics? Is it when the second option is far right? If the Far left had beaten out Le Pen for the second spot would France still be neoliberal electoral choice? The far right has won in the US, multiple times. Not sure what you're talking about. Do you dispute that Trump is far right? The main examples are the US and UK, as they both underwent that change much earlier than other places. I don't know about every country's politics (and don't see much relevance to that) but from what I know Canada has a similar system, New Zealand and Norway don't. France wasn't a neoliberal system until Macron, as is obvious and I already explained during the last sealioning session. Macron's main contribution to the non-international politics of France has been to try and shift to a neoliberal system. If Mélenchon had been to the second round, that attempt would have failed, and we'd be in the good future. But it didn't, and the most likely outcome is that it won't happen next time either. The Far right has not ultimately won in the US. How could have they done that multiple times? That makes no sense. How did he change the system? I'm very confused on how whos in second place determines the political system. And how you have determined that Macron somehow changed it and wants Le Pen in second? Well they voted for some far right dude and that dude got elected. In electoral politics this is usually referred to as winning, I don't know what you want from me. He changed the system in that usually France had a leftist dude and a liberal dude squaring off in the playoffs. When Macron came in, people were dissatisfied with the previous left leader, Hollande, and as such it was time for the rightwing to have the presidency. But they picked Fillon as a candidate and Fillon fucked up by having his corruption exposed, which allowed for a center vs far right election instead of a left vs right election. As a leader, Macron used a lot of the comm power available to him to legitimize the themes and ideas of the far right and delegitimize the left, which made it more likely that this election would have a second round of him vs the far right. It is most likely that he'll pursue that strategy again in the next five years, and due to the standard balance of disappointed voters that makes the far right a favourite to win, if not next time, at least eventually (but like I said, most likely next time in my opinion) Most people use ultimate winner as the winner at the end, interesting to know you do not, I apologize, I guess many groups are ultimately winning all the time. Cc cc It sounds like the right fucked up and that created your version of neo liberalism. Can you give me some examples of him using the comm power to legitimize the themes and ideas of the far right? From what I have seen he been trying to fed off both sides and be a "moderate"has to appeal to as many in the middle as possible. A lot of the prevalent french political discourse in the last few years originated in the far right, and prominent members of Macron's government relayed it as true with no pushback. Islamoleftism, the idea that the left and academia are allied with islamists to overthrow France, was quoted positively by several ministers including the minister of Education. The idea is that the left is no longer "republican" and should be discarded, dangers of wokism were a common topic, as was insecurity. Islamophobia is normalized, with several non far right voices saying that the term should be abandoned but I guess a lot of people on this forum find that good so whatever. Edit: forgot about a personal favourite, that one time Darmanin (interior minister I believe) debated Marine Le Pen and told her she was too weak on immigration and she should take some vitamins. So if Marachel beats Le Pen does Macron become a neo conservative with the far left destined to ultimately win? No because that doesn't make any sense Jimmic. Self oblivious irony when the same logic is employed is at hand here. Couldn't make it up. Show nested quote +On April 26 2022 00:34 WombaT wrote: TIL LL yearns for the destruction of the EU. Genuinely curious why, and not in a loaded question sense Willful ignorance or simply not paid attention to the Kremlin shill who amongst many things was still saying Russia didn't invade Ukraine days after Putin told the Duma he ordered the invasion of Ukraine? With that you can guess why he wishes the destruction of a cooperative polity in Europe. What exactly is your problem here? I was polite, quoted you correctly, put forth reasoned and thoughtful arguments to refute what you had written. Except for the 4th qoute, where I guess you just didn't like having you writing "no that doesn't make any sense" being reflected back to you.
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On July 15 2022 05:56 Liquid`Drone wrote: Your example of neb's hectoring of your posts, that which you cannot get away from, is a single one liner he made in March where he doesn't even mention you and ends his post with a smiley? Kwark can fight his own battle but I have a hard time understanding why you yourself mentioned neb in all of this. The two aren't even particularly aligned in general. A smiley is not friendly at the end of a post, it is the opposite, you should know that. It's annoying. I talk to GH, then Kwark comes in then Neb comes in with that comment. Who wants to constantly have to discuss with people acting in such a manner towards me? Does this need happen everytime?
I am talking here becuase I wish this would not happen again in the future. Why should I must always face such repeated rudeness specifically from Kwark? It creates a culture where others also see it acceptable to be rude towards me as well.You can see that Kwark justifies his own rudeness towards under a grossly mistaken feeling of superiority towards me and has no qualms about do so again in the future.
I could self judicate myself to simply never to respond to Kwark, but that would mean in essence he would continue to act in such a manner whilst I would lose my voice in the forum regarding any matter I may be interested, that happens to have kwark participating.
Put yourself in my shoes, how would you feel if you wasn't a mod and this happened to you? Do you truly think Kwarks responses was appropriate? Is this really how you want TL moderation to go? For one mod to constantly and freely be a prick to another poster because he is a mod and the in group favouritism and power that comes with it?
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Edit; reply to three people at same time is annoying and prone to formatting mistakes like making an accidental extra post like this one. Be thankful, that you aren't in a position where you always have to reply to multiple posters like I have to.
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United States41996 Posts
On July 22 2022 05:57 Dangermousecatdog wrote: We could had a reasoned argument Based on previous interactions with you I have no interest in making an attempt to have one. I don’t think it would be a profitable use of my time and so, like several other posters, I don’t engage with you.
What is weird is that you can’t seem to accept this rejection. I don’t want to argue with you and I’m allowed not to. You try to pick fights or misrepresent my words and then get so upset when I refuse to engage. There’s an implicit entitlement to your demands for my attention that is really quite unpleasant.
Based on what I’ve seen of you I can’t imagine that you’re a stranger to rejection. Are you always this way?
On July 22 2022 06:18 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Be thankful, that you aren't in a position where you always have to reply You don’t have to. No one is asking you to. That’s why this dynamic is so weird. Why are you forcing this?
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