Pick Your Power Insane! - Page 69

On May 21 2011 23:16 kitaman27 wrote:


As for Node's inventor item, do we agree that he should provide GMarshal a protective item? If GMarshal ends up dead, then we know to who to lynch, unless anyone sees a flaw in the plan?

On May 22 2011 01:54 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Radfield I'm glad we're thinking along the same lines. I believe your claim and the reasoning behind it. As for incog here's my thinking. I came into this game without having read the thread so I raced through it as fast as I could. I picked some easy reads (Radfield as town and Chez as scum) but I may have missed more subtle things that would have helped me make concrete calls on the more controversial players (Ace and Incog). As I am supposed to be dreamflower she was allowed to give me her top town and top scum. Her top town was Incog with a huge level of certainty. Her top scum was Ace with an equal level of certainty. Why am I saying this? Because with Incog's last post we started talking about parts of the game I only have a rough understanding of and we started talking about dreamflower. I'm going to have to reread the earlier parts but for now dreamflower's position will be mine. Keep in mind, dreamflower is actually pretty good, in one game she played she got killed night two as a mad hatter with bombs on two mafia, in another game she picked out two mafia and vigi'd one before she got killed. With this record I'm more than willing to support her suspcions.

On May 22 2011 02:04 Kurumi wrote:

You're claiming Mad Hatter?

On May 21 2011 18:44 Incognito wrote:




Ace does not fail to disappoint. This game should be a great example for how to play politics and how to play mafia.

Lets look at Dreamflower's points against Ace. First, she points out that Ace is tunneling off of very little information, and isn't looking at other people's suspicious actions. Only a few posts into the game, Ace suddenly comes to the conclusion that I'm mafia because I'm finger pointing, and pushes that point through the thread. Yes, I was finger pointing. But why does this make me mafia? Ace gives no such reason. Instead, he continues to push this idea until it finally becomes the truth. Between day 1 and now, Ace has successfully turned the small point about finger pointing into a mass lynch Incognito movement. This is exactly what mafia wants to do. They want to push bad lynches while inflating the notion that the target is "scummy". Once the target flips town, the accuser merely points to the evidence that the "target was scummy". And they are likely to get away with it, given the fact that they've gotten half the town to believe that "target was scummy". So what has Ace been doing here? He's been pushing a movement to lynch me off of shoddy evidence while hiding behind his "finger pointers are suspicious" shield.

Let us examine the point about finger pointing. Is finger pointing inherrently suspicious? It is true that mafia want to lynch townies. It is also true that it is generally bad for town when there are multiple candidates out on the field, each with shoddy reasoning. It is also true that bandwagons formed on shoddy reasoning are anti-town. The crux of the matter is that it is anti-town when townies are lynched on shoddy reasoning. Ideally, the mafia want to push innocent lynches without being linked to the lynch. Mafia want to start a bandwagon on townies without being noticed. Why would town want to finger point? Generally, it is a bad idea to vote without explanation. Yet plenty of townies have done it, some to apply pressure (read: Foolishness in XXXVII for Seraph). Inactives also tend to do this. Is this pro-town behavior? Generally not. Is it an indication that said player is scum? No, townies do this all the time. So in general, while finger pointing isn't a very town-friendly action, it isn't a "scumtell". It is a slightly anti-town action that may be good support for other evidence that someone is mafia, but it should certainly not be the basis for any scum accusation.

The second piece of Dreamflower's analysis is critical. She points out that Ace has literally ignored all my real contributions, hasn't criticized any of my actual points, and hasn't said anything definitive about anyone (except me and Radfield, who Dreamflower points out was also accused off of shoddy reasoning - Ace accused him because he started the Barundar lynch, even though we have no evidence of Barundar's town alignment). Note how Ace also doesn’t respond to Dreamflower’s accusation, but simply points out some errors in Dreamflower’s post that aren’t crucial to her argument.

If you go back to look at Ace's posts, Dreamflower’s accusations are accurate. Ace ignores all my early game points about the politician/vote rigger combo, town roles, and thesis about how the game is progressing. Now I would perfectly understand if Ace disagreed with my points (people like Radfield certainly did). Yet he didn't do that, he merely ignored my post and throughout the whole entire game has refused to acknowledge the fact that I made some key contributions to the discussion. In the meanwhile though, he attacks me for asking people to reread the thread without specifying anything special. Its clear Ace is reading my posts. Selectively reading, that is. Ace is glad to point out where I'm scummy, yet fails to acknowledge some pretty important contributions I have made.

Ace agrees that Kavdragon is suspicious earlier in the day ("something piqued my interest), prods him for a few pages in the thread, and even agrees that Kavdragon is timid, but then turns full circle and attacks me for leading the Kavdragon lynch. This is an excellent example of how mafia play. Ace is really the one who starts the Kavdragon lynch. Yet in public opinion, I am responsible for the lynch. Here's what happened. After Caller and Ace get the ball rolling, I fall for the bait and go on a rampant lynch Kavdragon train. My confidence and thread influence work in the mafia's favor this time and is perfect for Ace, as he can now do a 180 and appear to be "saving" Kavdragon while assigning responsibility for the lynch to me. When Kavdragon pops up town, Ace immediately points out the Kavdragon voters as super suspicious while making himself appear like he tried to stop a town lynch. But what did Ace really do? He accuses Kavdragon of BSing when Kavdragon claims he is "trying to gather information", and tells Kavdragon that he won't live til day 2. Later in the day after I have already started on the lynch Kavdragon train, Ace comes out and agrees that Kavdragon is acting timid, thus throwing more fuel onto the fire. Ace never votes Kavdragon, and toward the end of the day, switches his vote back to me (from Radfield) and states that "suspicious are the votes on KavDragon". Complete 180 from his previous (vicious) attacks that Kavdragon wouldn't live to see day 2 and that he was so timid. Once Kavdragon flips green, Ace trumpets the alarm, cries foul, and pretends like he never had a hand in the Kavdragon lynch. This is an example of perfect execution of scum play. Ace shows a textbook example of how to effectively finger point as mafia. Unlike me on day 1, he actively gives reasons for Kavdragon’s scumminess (the reasons are false scumtells, but they seem convincing as reasons nonetheless). This accusation catches fire, which leads others (Caller and myself) to take notice and agree with them. Once we build cases of our own, Ace then backs out right in time to pin the responsibility on me, using it to add fuel to the anti-Incognito case. As evidenced by the fact that he uses the Kavdragon lynch as a reason to paint me red, Ace clearly did not simply change his mind about the Kavdragon lynch. He intentionally started the lynch and blamed it on someone else. Townies have no reason to start a lynch and then turn around and accuse people on the bandwagon. Ace is hiding the fact that he was a major contributor to the Kavdragon lynch.

Continuing on into day 2, Ace pops up and cries foul yet again after checking Radfield. While it is very likely that Ace is a capitalist and truly did check Radfield, his announcement does a brilliant job of adding fuel to the fire and furthering his case against "the unRadfield/Incognito duo", which is a complete fabrication. While it is true that Radfield has defended me, it should be pretty clear that Radfield is actually trying to think things through. In any case, Ace's cries of foul play further cast suspicion on Radfield even though Ace never reveals what Radfield's role is. Ace accuses Radfield for not following his own plan (hardly an indication of mafia), and announces to the world that Radfield "tried to pull some slick stuff", implying that Radfield has shady play without giving details. Ace creates a drama about Radfields role, gives out no details, and uses this to further his anti-Radfield case (at this point Radfield is inexplicably tied to me in his eyes). This effectively furthers mafia goals and places doubt on Radfield without Ace having to lie or show any real analysis. Could this action have been done by a townie? A townie has no reason to make a big fuss about Radfield’s role if it is not an absolute indication of scum. After Radfield says that anyone who knows his role should understand why he did not follow his own plan, Ace accepts this explanation, yet still “wonders” why Radfield didn’t follow his plan. Soon after, Ace drops the issue. From Radfield’s explanation, it seems clear that Ace should’ve already known the answer before asking the question. Which means that the only reason Ace could have asked the question was to cause a commotion and spread doubt about Radfield. Ace makes no conclusions and provides no further insights. His reaction to Radfield’s “its obvious” explanation shows that he wasn’t being inquisitive or trying to figure things out, he is intentionally spreading doubt.

The vote list also furthers his case against me. Note however, that none of this evidence singles me out as mafia. He trumpets the "kill people on the vote list" mantra to make people want to focus on killing me instead of trying to go for some other suspects. He accepts the vote list at face value, and frames any attack on non-vote list suspects as irrational and anti-town. However, as I and others have pointed out, there is no real reason why we should have utter faith in the vote list. Ace himself even admits that he believes that the possibility of having a framer/GF is high, yet continues to pressure people to focus on the vote list. By focusing on the vote list, Ace is attempting to get townies to conclude on their own that I am mafia, once again without providing any analysis. Here's how the psychology works: Ace emphasizes that 2/5 on the list are mafia and that it is irrational not to lynch off the list. This causes people to think to themselves, "2/5 are mafia, so who do I think are the most suspicious?" Given Ace's constant pushing that I am mafia, townies are likely to subconsciously come to the conclusion that I am mafia, especially if they don't have the time or the willpower to go back through the thread and do a careful analysis. In essence, Ace's reinforcement of the vote list guides the players to the conclusion that I am mafia without him having to provide analysis.

Once I nuke Chezinu, Ace again picks at the weaknesses in my posts while ignoring how my actions run counter to what the mafia would want to do. He claims that I agreed that America was an anti-town role (I did not), that I am going against my day 1 plan (I did not have a day 1 plan), that if Chezinu flips mafia then I am bussing him (no reasoning), and that I am anti-town because I did not discuss the nuking. Yet later he declares that "Chezinu is the obvious scum for sure". Is not discussing the nuking anti-town? Well, by itself, not discussing the nuking can by no means be claimed to be a pro-town action, but it isn't necessarily anti-town either. I had many reasons for not discussing the nuke, including not wanting to be bought by a potential mafia politician. Not discussing the nuke doesn't say anything about my alignment one way or the other. Notice how Ace goes about attacking me here. He tries to pin me on ideas I didn't say, paints America as an anti-town role, and questions how not discussing the nuke is pro-town. What he basically does is picks out errors I make and questions how they are pro-town. Logically, yes, not discussing my nuke is not pro-town (although its not anti-town). Ace uses biased questions and frames them in a way that makes me look guilty, when in fact I am not. He emphasizes things that are easy to paint as anti-town actions, while at the same time ignoring contributions I have made that show I'm pro-town. This is exactly what mafia want to do. But mafia is a game where you cannot judge someone as mafia just by how many sketchy actions they make. Proper analysis considers all of a players actions and analyzes them in the context of “what makes this action an action that only can be made by mafia”. Ace has not considered this, and his case against me is flimsy at best. His points consist of minor “scumtells” such as being on the wrong lynch (twice now), finger pointing, picking America, and nuking without discussion.

In conclusion, the evidence shows that Ace is undeniably mafia. His actions perfectly align with a mafia mindset, and he carries out actions that could not be made by a townie. In the Kavdragon lynch, Ace is hiding from the fact that he is a major contributor to the lynch, and with the Radfield day 2 commotion, Ace was intentionally spreading doubt.

Ace has effectively planted the "Incognito is finger pointing and thus mafia" idea into people's heads. Once I flip town, he will get off the hook because everyone will believe the "fact" that Incognito was scummy, when in reality, Ace has merely fabricated this entire idea. This reminds me of the movie Inception, which, ironically, features Leonardo DiCaprio. I must applaud him for this cleverly thought out humor.

On May 21 2011 21:28 Radfield wrote:
Well, this is unfortunate, but I've independently come to the same conclusions about Ace as Incog. Unfortunate because that is not the general consensus right now, and is probably an unpopular opinion. Incog obviously needs to be lynched though, as no case against Ace can progress with all the suspicion hanging on Incogs head. If Incog flips red(as many think will happen) then obviously Ace is prob clean.

To be clear: I will not progress a case against Ace until Incog is dead and his alignment ascertained.

First off, while I'd love to keep this to myself, the mafia should be able to deduce my role by now anyways, if they haven't, they're really bad. It also seems like there's some sort of ball of suspicion gathering towards me, so lets have this out.

Clear your minds for a minute everyone, throw away any impressions of me, and really just look at the facts I'm presenting here. It's easy to skim read, but I really ask you to consider the following:

Consider for a moment, that you are a role cop. Night one, you decide to investigate Radfield. You know he said he was going to take Vote Rigger(in his plan), and you're curious as to if he actually did. Night ends and you get you result back. Radfield did not draft Vote Rigger as he claimed he did, rather he drafted bulletproof. So, knowing this, what is your first thought? Is it: Hmmm, I wonder what possible reason Radfield drafted bulletproof for, he said he was going to draft Vote Rigger, I should post in the thread and put some pressure on him to see if I can discern his true reasons. OR, is your reaction: Oh, of course radfield took bulletproof. Given his history, it makes perfect sense. Obviously I should keep pretty mum about his role, as his role becomes useless if ever outted.

For those who do not know my history, you might be confused as to why it would be obvious why I drafted bulletproof. I feel fairly confident in this claim: No other player on TL has been shot as often and as early as me. I have died Night One or Night Two in every single town-aligned game of mafia I have ever played(except one). At least half of those have been night one deaths. I have even been shot on Night Zero.

Any player who know my history, would not be suspicious in the least when finding out I drafted bulletproof. Regardless of the fact that bulleproof is a poor role for mafia to have chosen, when there are a number of roles which appear town aligned, but also significantly help mafia. If I was mafia, WHY WOULDN"T I HAVE JUST TAKEN VOTE RIGGER?? It's an awesome role for a mafia to have, and would've give tme a huge amount of power down the stretch.


Done with the role. Judge for yourself if Aces response to that information was strange, or if it was my role choice instead which was strange.

Say what you want about my actions this game, but they have been transparent. Wondering why I voted a certain way? There's reasoning there, so go look. Wondering about anything I've said? It's been reasoned out and explained. I was wrong about KillerSOS, and frankly I think I was wrong about Barundar on Day 1(though you'll notice I have 180ed on him).

Fact of the matter is, I was willing to ignore KillerSOS and let him live after his claim. Read the thread, my thought process was there. BUT, he claimed to have tracked Ace(really bad luck). If he had tracked practically anyone else but the one public visit we already knew took place, then he was in the clear. It really seemed like a bs claim at the time.

Blech. Infinitestory, I'd love to hear why you think I'm scummy and I really hope it's not just because Foolishness and Ace have repeated it like 10 times each(effectively casting doubt on the analysis of a player known to have good reads). Is it because I am linked to Incognito in your eyes? Is it because I have been willing to stick my neck out and go to bat for certain players? Is it just a certain feeling you have?

On May 21 2011 22:17 Radfield wrote:
inb4 Ace shows up and tells me either that:

A) I'm a moron for revealing I'm bulletproof

OR

B) I must be mafia because no townie would ever reveal they were bulletproof

As far as B goes, lets have a show of hands of how many people already deduced my role from the conversation that was had. My role was forced when Ace started softballing me, and revealed the moment I responded.

Speaking of Ace softballing me. I just looked through the thread, and EIGHT TIMES he lumps suspicion on me for not taking VR. EIGHT!! Honestly, I really can't imagine any player who knows my history mentioning it even once. I recommend people go back and look at his comments regarding my role, it starts here:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=9333256

Knowing what you know now, do his comments make sense from a pro-town perspective?

On May 22 2011 02:55 Fishball wrote:
The role has also lost a lot of it's usefulness, since he revealed it to the public.
I also don't like the fact that he revealed it this early. We're still in Night phase, and a lot of stuff can develop overnight. By all means, I would have pulled that move during the next Day phase, when there is indeed a bandwagon forming on Radfield for the lynch, assuming that he is Town.

On May 22 2011 02:55 Ace wrote:
Yea Radfield has some imaginary thing going on as to me softballing him. The suspicion was warranted but if I really wanted to screw him over I would have just outted his role.

Either way it doesn't excuse what has happened the last 2 days.

On May 18 2011 08:26 deconduo wrote:


Nope, its a secret formula that I'll tell you after todays lynch.