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Pick Your Power Insane! - Page 71

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
May 22 2011 02:36 GMT
#1401
One. Two. Three.
Hey, look at me!
you gotta dance
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
May 22 2011 02:41 GMT
#1402
Ace.

I'll try to just take ll the meaty interesting posts. Ace has a universally cocky meta regardless of his alignment, so you need to dig a little deeper into what he says rather then take it as face value. This first sequence took place fairly early on. I believe this is important because Ace is pretty on par with what comes out of GM's mouth. Notice GM's tone as well, as I don't recall him ever speaking to someone in this way who was on his team. Whether Ace noticed this or not, he associated himself with a simpler player and I think he reaps the benefits from it.

On May 14 2011 12:07 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 14 2011 10:36 GMarshal wrote:
On May 14 2011 10:25 Ace wrote:
On May 14 2011 10:17 GMarshal wrote:
On May 14 2011 10:12 Ace wrote:
On May 14 2011 10:06 GMarshal wrote:
On May 14 2011 10:05 Ace wrote:
here we go again. Assigning roles before people pick. Disaster incoming.


Where exactly does this cause "disaster" to me it looks like it causes accountability for anti-town roles and only for anti-town roles.

Can you explain why its a bad idea? I'd really love to hear your input on this.


accountability? lol did you read the last 3 PYP games?


Yes, yes I did, I fail to see your point, if we know who has the PoD and we go into a double night then we vigi shoot him right off the bat, or lynch him if that isn't an option... Same with the other roles, assuming the plan is actually followed where is the flaw?

And if its not followed what do you propose? Everyone picks whatever they want? I feel like thats going to end with the mafia holding enough powerful roles to roll over us by denying lynches/converting people.


1.) Can't know if your "assigned" roles went to the right person.
2.) Won't know if the role went to town or mafia

For the chance of tying a few people to roles and not alignment you'll be giving Scum information on where the roles went. Lets not forget that unlike any other PYP game the amount of killing roles in this game are pretty high.


1.) *if* we agree to follow the plan then we will, because if they are town they will pick them, in the interest of benefiting the town, and if they are scum they don't want to be caught at a lie. And we'll be able to tell if the power was picked earlier since the person picking it will get vanilla. However I agree that this might be a weakness of the plan, is there any way to remedy it?

2.) It wont matter, if they are town they will never use the role, if they are mafia we will know if it is used, and will be able to kill them for it, thats the reason for assigning the activated anti-town roles to these players, rather than passive anti-town roles, its *really* easy to tell if they've been used.

On these people being killed by the mafia, then those anti-town roles are out of the game, rather than power roles, I dont see the issue with them being focused down.

I can't say I'm comfortable with letting townies pick whatever they want, I feel like thats going to lead to the mafia snagging powerful roles and the town overlapping too much in the role selection.

Still this plan cannot work if the people in those positions don't agree to it, so we should be in agreement before the draft order comes out.


I fell asleep reading this


GM presents a less then ideal plan of action and Ace takes the time out to shoot it down politely. I think Ace's later exchanges with using GM's claim as gospel, which I believe was well-founded.

On May 15 2011 06:34 Ace wrote:
Good idea but trying to figure out what the mafia will pick is pretty much a crapshot at this point. There are just too many roles that are dangerous. Like Radfield iirc said - our best bet is to lynch anyone caught with clearly anti-town roles. This way no one can get away with " I was just picking this to deny Mafia from it" excuses.

Imo the top spots should hog as many as the detective roles as possible, and let the middle pickers take prot roles. Mafia having extra KP isn't that scary if there are many prot + known investigation roles to stop them. In essence everyone could literally role claim and just go down the line forming investigations and without a brutal amount of KP Scum would be powerless to stop it.


This was a response to Kavdragon. I'm not sure how this would playinto Ace's "politics" but he seems to give due respect to both kav and rad, so I really don't think he was plotting anything at this point. Ace seems like an average townie poster to me at this point, giving his thoughts where he feels is appropriate. He has done nothing to warrant a red read IMO.

Let's go to post-rolepicks.

On May 17 2011 05:49 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 17 2011 05:04 Kavdragon wrote:
On May 17 2011 04:48 Foolishness wrote:
No plans for vote rigging or checking. Let's scum hunt.


This.

On May 17 2011 02:54 Ace wrote:
I think right now it's best to just get a few main suspects, and then attempt to split all of our votes between them. Scummiest gets the lynch, vote checking DT gets a few lists.


How is this different than what we would do anyways? Would you mind contributing? You wanted to sleep when the town was making plans, and that bugs me. You are the most skilled player as mafia in this game, and that means that you, better than anyone else can figure out what the mafia is most likely to do. I was really hoping that you would put some of that skill forward and help with plans. At any rate, the day is started and it's time to wake up.


are you going to pay me to do your work for you?

Show nested quote +
On May 17 2011 04:41 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
On May 17 2011 04:36 Foolishness wrote:
Are we really going to try to base a plan around rigging the votes and getting a votecheck? What happened to "let's treat this as a normal game until someone claims"?


I would hope not. I say play this out normally, but pay attention to people who are randomly throwing single votes out and refuse to vote with any group. If that continues past one day, I'd say it's someone trying to avoid vote check.


Actually Scum would want to vote with a group. If they don't they risk the possible chance of a group of confirmed townies by the DT. It's better for them and for the Town that people vote together. People voting alone are probably better off left to be checked by another investigation role.

Show nested quote +
On May 17 2011 05:28 Radfield wrote:
If I was mafia, I would want to collide my numbers with at least one, possibly two other mafia players. First, for whatever reason town players think this is unlikely. Second, there is very little downside for the mafia, they avoid the top of the list(where the most attention is focused) and still get whatever roles they want, as we have a huge no-pick list as town. Any non-super-vet near the bottom of the list will not likely be role-checked, so they safely have a good pro-mafia role, and some cover by clashing with each other.

I'm not saying that the mafia definitely clashed, but simply that there are decent reasons for a couple mafia players to do so. Also the fact that ~5 players picked [4] and ~5 players picked [9] makes it slightly more likely in my mind that mafia clashed with themselves on purpose. blah blah blah wifom blah wifom. Arggg.


Even taking out the Wifom argument: With so many good roles the Mafia probably don't care if they clashed. In the other PYP games with the town focusing on 3 or so "too good to be true roles" (silly I know) number clashing was a decent idea in separating Town from Scum. In this game with so many good roles it probably doesn't matter as much.

Show nested quote +
On May 17 2011 05:32 Kavdragon wrote:
If you're having a hard time coming up with someone that is scummy, try thinking up possible number combinations that the mafia used, and pick someone from that list. For instance, I think that they would play to get a top spot, so I expected them to go for something like 2,3,4,5. So I picked the people who stood out from those who chose those numbers and compiled a little scum team.

Chaoser[2][2]
Flamewheel[3][3]
Wiggles[4][2]
KillerSOS[5][11]

Of those Wiggles seems the scummiest, so I'll look into him first.


The hell is this shit?


Pretty natural responses from Ace, but you can see his suspicion form on kavdragon. Kavdragon gives a scum list purely from numbers, so I believe this build up was warranted froma townie perspective.


On May 17 2011 05:59 Ace wrote:
By the way I unvoted Incognito for now. I saw something else in the last few pages that piqued my interest.


I'm not certain, but posts like this provoke me to go back and re-read things. I'm sure Ace wouldn't have mentioned it if he didn't want other people to read into it as well. I still think I missed exactly what he was referring to though lol...

Anyway I like these kinda posts

On May 17 2011 10:09 Ace wrote:
Find 1 post - make it look like someone is scum.

Look at 5 posts by said person with "they have to be scum goggles" and find things that aren't there.

I'm more inclined to start voting off all the finger pointers. This bullshit "look I've found some posts that makes this person looks scummy because I believe this is the true intent behind them" is sick. It sucked in all the other mafia games you people played in and it's going to suck now.

So I'm going to:

1.) Push for some people to get lynched

2.) Kill one of you myself tonight

Oh wait? What's that?

Your damn right. Ace has a gun.

Balls.


So I think right here you might say this warrants FoS, but again we need to look further. Ace subtle claims, but when he said he had checked rad later, I think everyone figured he was the capitalist, which seems odd considering how far down the list he was, and how good the role is in town hands. Someone could have easily counterclaimed, so its safe to say he got it, and I dont think its a strong mafia role at all. I'd say its only good for cover from BB, and the role checks have potential but Ace is way to open with this to be scum.

He's making himself perfectly traceable for town. I, again, am not reading scum, and I am certainly not noticing the "politics" as of yet.


On May 18 2011 02:13 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 17 2011 19:42 Radfield wrote:
OK, sure Barundar is an excellent lynch target, but I'd much rather lynch further down the list today, and we have plenty of excellent targets lower town. An alignment check on him tonight should do the trick anyways.

Kavdragon is putting in lots of effort, and making mistakes. If anything this looks pro-town, not anti-town.

Incongito is too great a town asset to lynch off his Day 1 behavior, especially since he claims he's been out of town. (By the way, I appreciate that you ignored all my posts and then called me an invisible poster )


On May 17 2011 15:07 Eiii wrote:
On May 17 2011 12:53 infinitestory wrote:
Oh, speaking of which, I'd actually like to apply some pressure myself.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 17 2011 10:31 Eiii wrote:
Oh man, decon just made himself the perfect placeholder vote candidate. Or maybe even a good lynch candidate! :D

You haven't been posting much, and you suddenly appear to simply bandwagon deconduo. Generally, placeholder votes are put on yourself, by the way; right now, it looks like you're just voting without caring who you're voting for.
The lynch is important. It's a reliable way to weed out mafia, given that people vote intelligently. What is your reason for voting deconduo? Do you believe he is mafia? (If not, who are you watching?)

Do I think decon is mafia? Probably not, after pulling a post like that. Do I think that there's a decent chance we're going to lynch mafia today if we ignore decon? Nope. Do I think that lynching someone who's either VI or a townie with apparently no role who's lost interest in the game and probably won't contribute much is better than tunneling in on one or two 'suspicious' posts from an active player or one who looks lurk-y now for whatever reason but could hold a helpful role or perk up and contribute more in the next few days? Definitely.

Look, I don't ever have much confidence in day 1 lynches. Like ace has said, it just seems like sifting through peoples' posts and emphasizing possible reasons that they *could* be scum. I don't see anything that makes me especially confident that we're on the right track today and I'm pretty clueless so far as well. At best decon is VI and we take him out of the game early and avoid lynching someone green tonight. At best-best mafia is retarded, and decon is a red zombie or something. At worst decon is for some crazy reason lying and actually holds the most useful role in the world but decided to tell us to kill him just for fun. Probably decon actually did have a specific set of roles he wanted to play and he wasn't able to pick any up, so he's not that interested in playing the game.

In terms of people I think are scummy, I think caller and chez have been posting pretty dumb things, but that's about all I've got


I think you're wrong here Eiii, lynching easy targets(like non-contributing or inactive players) only helps the mafia by giving them an easy out. We have an absolute ton of info so far, and a decent chance of killing scum today, better in my mind than any other normal game, since we basically have a 96 hour Day 1.

Easy targets who give us nothing at this point: Deconduo, KillerSOS, Fishball(hello? FIshball? Are you there? Are you playing?)

OriginalName: Tentative, Spammy, Jokey, One Liners.... even has a standard medium length contributy post which says almost nothing. Unfortunately he has been called out by several other scummy players, so he could just be an easy target.

Mr Wiggles: Did a small amount of leg-work looking at roles, Medium sized posts with minimal info, recapping, content to continue discussing plans and roles. Best of all, he makes a very long-winded post after getting called out, which is full of various themes. A good target

tknted: So far I'm undecided. Contributed a few ideas, and a bit of his own opinions which is good. Yet to weigh in on the lynch. Please post more.

Node: Decent target. Talks about the mafia over and over, what they would do, why they would do, how they would do. Then proceeds to spam it up, direct suspicion at chezinu(always a safe play). He also semi-defends Kurumi, which is good, since kurumi is an easy target to pick on from the looks of things.

There is also one other player on my list, who I think is the most likely to be scum and our best target. I would rather not pressure him/her right now though, because I want to see what they do on their own.

In the absence of talking about my last target, I think the best lynch for the moment is Mr. Wiggles. Anyone agree or disagree?


I've got problems with all of those bolded claims.

1.) Doesn't matter where we lynch right now. We have no idea about where Mafia got their spots, and if Barundar is indeed the scummiest person then he gets the lynch. No tradeoffs. Thing is he isn't scummy at all. All he did was ask for people to stop throwing out scum accusations every other post - and I agree. It will be too easy to just get a random person lynched with this much division.

2.) Effort does not equal pro-town behavior. If you make mistakes, especially blatant ones like mass accusations or using terrible arguments under the guise of generating discussion then you aren't much different than Scum trying to act like they are getting things done. If he has played in games before then this should be clear by now that doing this is not good for town.

3.) No one is too good to not lynch in this game. More so than Kavdragon, Incognito threw around accusations and even worse reasons. The vote for Killsos (omg kill sauce?!).

@flamewheel: Being silly is no excuse for getting a free pass.

Either way we've got more than enough "contributions" from enough people already. Asking any more people to contribute for now will just serve as clutter because honestly - nothing new is coming from anyone today. It's time we consolidate our votes on a few suspects, get the lynch off, and get the DT to check the list. Yo guys are wasting time with this senseless finger pointing.

Incognito is the scummiest person so far. I like how he even told everyone to "go back and read the thread", while not even pointing out what in the thread is so important it requires a re-read. Pretty much just giving orders and no follow up in an effort to look active.

Kavdragon is scummy too, but since some people like bumatlarge want to play daddy day care guess he can't be lynched yet.

'tis ok, I've got my gun though.


I was suspicious of Ace from this post alone, because he trashed on rad's barundar suspect, which I felt was a decent deduction, he called incog, a person who I felt was town at the time, the scummiest, and he picked kav, someone I really didn't want to get get lynched, as numero 2.

Looking back on it with my given knowledge, everything here is pro-town. Barundar WAS just knocking on people throwing suspicions around, rad incog and unfortunately kav WERE the mischief makers here, and Ace is not weaving any master plan that I can see.

All of Ace's consecutive posts are him arguing these points. He isn't on kavdragon, he just merely brings him up along with incog and radfield about pointless FoS and useless accusations. He focuses on incog instead, which I too at the time had a change of heart about the matter. I was not sold on radfield at all.

Kav's Ace analysis
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 18 2011 14:00 Kavdragon wrote:
Huh. I though that the day ended at [time]2100 PDT[time] That was an hour ago, right? We it looks like people have decided to lynch me so I'll expidite my analysis of Ace.




You know what? Screw this. Vet's are overrated and I'm done giving them any sort of special consideration.

My case for Ace


Ace has done little to help the town, and done lots to hurt it. He's suggested scummy plans, and discouraged good ones. Town agrees that the less Kp is good for the town, Ace picks a KP role .

Ace thinks like mafia better than anyone, so the time that he could be most useful to the town is durring the planning phase. Instead of contributing, he deconstructively bashes Gmarshal for his plan. Gmarshal's plan was PRO TOWN and a GOOD IDEA, but poor in the details. Allowing the mafia to take power roles is, and was a bad idea. Instead of helping him refine the plan, or suggesting something different, he says this:

Show nested quote +
On May 14 2011 10:05 Ace wrote:
here we go again. Assigning roles before people pick. Disaster incoming.


When Gmarshal takes the time to explain his reasoning, he ignores him, replying with

Show nested quote +
On May 14 2011 12:07 Ace wrote:
I fell asleep reading this


This is an absolutely useless post for the town, and discouraging to a player who is posting opinions. Gmarshal clammed up after this, and stopped posting his ideas. What ace did was damaging to the town atmosphere.

Later he posts this:
Show nested quote +
On May 14 2011 12:35 Ace wrote:
*nods in agreement with bum's post*

I'm not doing any work though. I feel like relaxing this game.


I didn't say anything at the time because I figured it was just a vet with an attitude, but since then I've decided that I'm through with letting this sort of thing by.

He finally comes in and agrees with something, but he contributes NOTHING at all to it. Wtf? Then he states that he's feeling lazy, and wants to relax this game? If he didn't want to play he shouldn't have signed up. This sort of attitude is anti-town, and shouldn't be allowed.

After that he attacks the next thing that happens in the town: The fos's that Incog and myself started. Ace waltzes in and dismisses the behavior with one of his "I'm going to sleep" lines, and adds nothing to the discussion. He doesn't care to explain himself. He just pops in, says "lol" then leaves. This continues for some time where he makes no real contribution.

He made this post talking about how I was look at things through "mafia goggles",
Show nested quote +
On May 17 2011 10:09 Ace wrote:
Find 1 post - make it look like someone is scum.

Look at 5 posts by said person with "they have to be scum goggles" and find things that aren't there.


Then he posts things like this, where he does the exact same thing to me:
Show nested quote +
On May 17 2011 13:10 Ace wrote:
All you're doing is throwing more suspicion around on aeveryone within your vicinity and hoping for a lucky hit. Big difference between "generating discussion" and "lets see where this dart lands". You're playing darts, I'm playing Connect Four.



--------------And now I'm going to be lynched, so let me be brief.----------------------------

Ace continues to be furstratingly negative towards most activity, and starts waving a gun around. I feel like Ace is being useless, but at this point I don't think that he's mafia. I think that he just doesn't know how to play a good townie. I don't think that a mafia ace would have argued the way that he did with me, and I think that the whole gun thing was just a bluff (or not, doesn't really matter) that he used to pressure people. Maybe that was his way of getting information, but whatever.

Please look at those people who said that they were uncomfortable lynching me, then voted for me anyways. (Hint: Gmarshal)



I immediately find Kav's error: He doesn't read past Ace's personality. It's something you have to do when you know a player. He sees what he thinks is most important, most notably the condescending one-liners that Ace tends to give. Notice that when referencing the first GM sequence, all he takes from it is the snarky end response from Ace.

You can argue that Ace's hard to read image is difficult, but it's more fun for me! I miss reading hard-to-read people like chez and bill murray, because there is always something. Instead I get people like GM and Dr.H who are about as straightforward as you can get.

LOST TRAIN OF THOUGHT DERAILED CALL 911

On May 18 2011 14:10 Ace wrote:
So you made a "case against Ace" followed with this:

Show nested quote +

I feel like Ace is being useless, but at this point I don't think that he's mafia.


All you did was add an extra post to the game. Oh my bad, and also threw GM under the bus, even though in that same post you called his play pro-town.

Conveniently you ignored the other people that voted for you. Once again, "seeing things that aren't there". You remind me of Leonardo DiCaprio in Shutter Island. In fact - you're no longer Kavdragon. You're Leonardo KavCaprio.

[image loading]

Academy Award for best bull bullshit performance: KavCaprio

Academy Award for best posing job as a Townie while being Scum: Incognito

Academy Award for most awesome player of all time: Ace (unanimous votes)

Academy Award for best portrayal of batman: bumatlarge Chezinu

Academy Award for best ways to shit up a thread and start random wagons: Radfield

Ladies and Gentleman! The Teamliquid Awards winners!


I think that summed it up pretty well, too bad I never saw shutter island. Ace isn't useless, you just have to squeeze his posts like a mango to get all the juicy details.

Next up is from the little lady herself dreamboatflowerpot.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 19 2011 23:21 dreamflower wrote:
As I have been relatively quiet this game, I'm hoping to make up for it now by mustering my courage and actually building a case against someone that I've been suspicious about for much of the game: Ace. This seems especially timely now that people like bumatlarge are starting to believe he is pro-town. Kavdragon has already done a little of this here, though he ruined his own point by vacillating at the end and saying "I don't think he's Mafia." I, on the other hand, think Ace is most likely Mafia, after having reviewed his posts in the game for the tenth or so time. Besides, even if my case doesn't make much of an impact, I hope the simple act of sharing my thoughts about who is Mafia should help town in the long run, if only to give other scum-hunters more help in determining my alignment for themselves.

As much as I can, I'm going to avoid evaluating Incognito's play so far and concentrate on Ace's responses to him, which I have found very telling. He has very loudly and noisily attacked Incognito for being scum and urged everyone to lynch him, but when pressed, his only reasoning was, "Incognito made some weird posts at the beginning of the game. He was the first one to point fingers at someone." This reasoning makes little sense to me, considering that, first of all, everyone in this game has made random posts at some point. Ace's own early-game posts are hardly masterpieces of insight and deep thinking themselves, with witticisms like "TLDR I fell asleep reading this," "I'm going to sleep now," "The shit is this?", and "Hey, look, I have a gun!" (Hehe, I just noticed that Ace also says, "I'm going to relax this game" early on and then later, "I don't know if you're on LSD or what, but not once did I suggest "sitting back and relaxing" this game.") If Ace were really serious about accusing people who have made weird posts this game, why hasn't he said anything about Chezinu? What about KillerSOS, whose contributions have been largely one-liners with little thought or substance that I can find? Or anyone else who has been lurking? While Chezinu does have a reputation for being off-the-wall, this isn't a PM-allowed game where he can justify his public inanity with private ingenuity. At this point, his cryptic posts are just cluttering up the game without contributing anything comprehensible to us readers. Yet, Ace doesn't even mention Chezinu, despite the fact that his confusing posts far outweigh Incognito's. Instead, Ace's insists on going after Incognito despite his own condemnnation of people who make accusations based off 1-5 posts.

Second, while Incognito's posts started out puzzling and dubious, he's since given us a wealth of thoughts, player and role analysis, and ideas. While the merits of his vote-checking plan remain in doubt and his Kavdragon read turned out to be incorrect, Incognito has undeniably been active and thoughtful and has put a lot of effort into analyzing roles and the strategies that lets the town put them to use. However, Ace never actually addresses Incognito's more substantial recent posts or criticizees the points he makes about either vote lists or Kavdragon. He avoids saying anything definitive about anyone, aside from half-heartedly criticizing people voting for Barundar. At one point, he actually agrees with Incognito about Kavdragon being timid, then inexplicably switches his vote to Radfield amid the chaos before the lynch. As far as I could tell, Ace's entire reaction to Incognito's vote-list-arranging plan and accusation against Kavdragon was more of the same that he was already posting before: a big picture of Leonardo DiCaprio, with a cute nickname for Kavdragon and another unbacked claim of Incognito posting as town, without any further reasoning behind it.

Speaking of Radfield, Ace has recently started attacking him without any reasoning either, as far as I can tell. Aside from calling him sketchy once, he hasn't given any reason for now attacking Incognito and Radfield with equally rabid fervor. I admit I think some of Radfield's priorities in his early "Town Pick" and "Town No-Pick" role lists were a bit skewed, but I haven't seen anything else from him that makes me suspicious. He too has put a lot of effort into trying to help guide and lead the town, analyze fellow players, and back up his assertions with good reasons. Yet, Ace is now claiming he is scum as well. Why is Ace picking on the two most active, hardworking, and analytical players in the game, who have both done their best to offer pro-town plans? Why hasn't he offered more than one-line analyses of either of them? For that matter, why has he rarely posted more than one or two lines at a time at all this entire game?

If anyone would like specific examples of Ace's posts to support my points, please let me know and I will go find them and quote them.

I don't like Ace's play at all this game, because he supplies so little reasoning to support his accusations of strong players while totally ignoring non-contributing players like Chezinu or KillerSOS. Either he is just being lazy and skating on his name and reputation, or he is Mafia trying to pick off well-known players. So, today, I will be voting for him to be lynched.


Qatol doesn't know this, but she and I go way back, made a lot of memories. But that's besides the point. DF does it to a much lesser extent, but you can see again the little pit they fall into when analyzing people like Ace.

Ace's own early-game posts are hardly masterpieces of insight and deep thinking themselves, with witticisms like "TLDR I fell asleep reading this," "I'm going to sleep now," "The shit is this?", and "Hey, look, I have a gun!" (Hehe, I just noticed that Ace also says, "I'm going to relax this game" early on and then later, "I don't know if you're on LSD or what, but not once did I suggest "sitting back and relaxing" this game.") If Ace were really serious about accusing people who have made weird posts this game, why hasn't he said anything about Chezinu?


Right there we see it. You can't focus on this stuff. People haven't been analyzing chezinu, they are just taking what they can get from him outside of reading his posts. "Oh chez is getting nuke, oh look hes not nuked" would actually be a pretty reasonable summary of chez's effect on this game. Ironically, being caught as scum against Kav taught me you really can't take everything someone says into consideration. If someone gives a whole epic speech thoroughly detailing what our plan should be and ends it with "Oh and I picked caller GF because I felt like it", you are going to have to ignore the nice speech and just analyze that one part. It's necessary when you want to properly analyze scum, because while they may not flat out slip, they do give hiccups.

Now I would love to go further into Ace's posting later in the game, but I'm pressed for time. Also incog, rather then calling Ace a masterful mafia player and referencing flawed analysis, you should build a proper one on him yourself as a last ditch effort as town. If you are town.

Ace is town
+ Show Spoiler +
Don't lie, you scrolled down to see the verdict without properly reading everything, and now you clicked this spoiler. Shame on you!


Also, I would rolecheck deconduo, votelist check the incog list instead of the killerSOS one, as I think a nice fat "0 mafia" would be more useful to town. Hope this is all clear.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
May 22 2011 03:05 GMT
#1403
Oh and I still think chaoser is scum. Just read through XXXIX, for real chaoser? I expect more from you this game, regardless of how many vets are here.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
infinitestory
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4053 Posts
May 22 2011 03:06 GMT
#1404
But that means the Incog list wouldn't give "0 mafia"
Translator:3
Chezinu
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7447 Posts
May 22 2011 03:20 GMT
#1405
On May 22 2011 11:41 bumatlarge wrote:
People haven't been analyzing chezinu, they are just taking what they can get from him outside of reading his posts.


So true...
lol, clueless in The Prism!
Foolishness *
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3044 Posts
May 22 2011 03:21 GMT
#1406
On May 22 2011 10:51 Chezinu wrote:
The Sanity Speaks Out


      I have an announce I would like to make. I have been pretending to be the traitor the whole game to try and waste the mafia's only attempt at guessing who the traitor is. I started off this game with a lover and I thought to myself, "Why would mafia ever want to be a lover with Chezinu -- that is suicide" So in the beginning, I was thinking maybe my lover is innocent and the mafia were hoping that my lover would accuse me of being mafia. So, I decided to mess with the mafia and with my lover and pretend to be the traitor to see what they would do. . Well, my lover never really accused me in the thread -- maybe they wanted to live themselves. So I went extreme and guess what? Town didn't even accuse me very much nor mafia. So I was thinking maybe they are keeping me around for my destructive behavior. I ended up PMing my lover that I was the traitor before I died by a nuke coming straight after me. AND guess what happened??? I lived!!! So I decided to play along with being a traitor a little longer in hopes that the mafia would waste their guess on me. I think about now they have already used it because my lover has stopped talking to me. Because the mafia will probably protect me again tonight I thought I would reveal my lover in hopes to eliminate both of us. Sadly, I wasn't able to probe out any other mafia members from my lover as I had hoped. Now, as you all been waiting for, my lover is + Show Spoiler +
Foolishness

       I know this is crazy and I don't quite understand the mafia's decision on this either.. but that is how it happened. So hurry up and kill me or foolishness. I might have some explosive secrets to reveal.

I honestly don't think is going to save us from dying.
geript: "Foolishness's cases are persuasive and reasonable but leave you feeling dirty afterwards. Kinda like a whore." ---- Manager of the TL Mafia forum, come play!
Foolishness *
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3044 Posts
May 22 2011 03:21 GMT
#1407
EBWOP: I honestly don't think this is going to save us from dying.
geript: "Foolishness's cases are persuasive and reasonable but leave you feeling dirty afterwards. Kinda like a whore." ---- Manager of the TL Mafia forum, come play!
Foolishness *
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3044 Posts
May 22 2011 03:22 GMT
#1408
Rather, I should say save YOU from dying.
geript: "Foolishness's cases are persuasive and reasonable but leave you feeling dirty afterwards. Kinda like a whore." ---- Manager of the TL Mafia forum, come play!
Chezinu
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7447 Posts
May 22 2011 03:26 GMT
#1409
That is the point. Mafia will probably protect me night, so I thought I would open up the target a bit to increases the chances of us dying

PS: I'm not the traitor
lol, clueless in The Prism!
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
May 22 2011 03:30 GMT
#1410
GMarshal's List


So, I'm pretty much resigned to dying tonight. I'm checking the KillerSOS list ofc, which should clear up things significantly, assuming I live, but the mafia are going to be shooting me tonight.

So, going player by player and posting my opinions/thoughts on them.

1.bumatlarge- A townie fair and square, his posts ooze greeness, not a single one stick out to me as having an anti-town mindset. The only thing is that he pointed out that the traitor role might be fun, suggesting to me that he might have taken it, be wary if he makes it into the late game, but until then he is a town asset.
2.Foolishness- He is giving me flashbacks to PYP1, which is a *bad* thing, he is supposed to be a powerful town asset, but so far he has yet to do anything for the town, other than express frustration at how bad we are. He either needs to step up his posting or someone should shoot him already. Dont let him lurk till day 7 or something retarded like that please.
3.kitaman27- Lurking scum. Someone needs to take a nice noose to his neck, because he is playing his textbook mafia style
4.Chaoser- step up your game man. You are done with interviews and shit, so if you are town you need to start helping us. Now. Otherwise I'd be sure you're scum. I trust bum to keep an eye on you and force you to contribute.
5. Barundar -Another obvious townie, I'm surprised he hasn't had an anurism yet. Keep trying to steer the town down the right road buddy. His attempt at vote consolidation and general frustration at us point him to be a townie.
6.Mr.Wiggles- all of his posts seem to me to be at least trying to help the town, I wish he'd analyze more, but at this stage of the game I think he is pretty green
7.GMarshal -me. Blue. Duh
8.Node- was convinced he was scum, I'm no longer as sure, his inventions will be his downfall if he is scum.
9. Deconduo – I feel like he has been lurking outside of his “lynch me” thingy. Most likely town, but I need to see more from him...
10.Infinitestory- Townish feel, he has a town shape to his posts. He could be mafia, but I doubt it. I'm open to seeing some solid analysis about him though
12. tnkted- unsure, could go either way with him, none of his posts really stick out in my mind, so worth a DT check. If he took the busdriver then lynch him, no further questions asked.
14. Radfield- town, is the general feel I get from his posts. If I live I'm open to rethinking it, but a read through his posts shows a solid attempt to lead the town and hunt scum
15. Kurumi- newbie town, unless he has expert coaching, kind of lurkerish, but almost certainly town.
17. Eiii- gave himself away earlier as I pointed out. He is mafia.
18. Meapak_ziphh- His posts ooze towniness, I tried looking for a scummy one, and couldn't find one.
20. Incognito- insane and disruptive. Absolutely town, scum don't play with such conviction and determination, the kind of fuckups he's led show him to be town. The mafia just isn't that reckless.
21. Chezinu- he is fucking Chezinu. I wish I could get a read on him. Whoever tied him to foolishness has a wicked sense of humor.
23. Ace- he is scum, and whatever he may say, he dosn't have a gun, or he would have used it already. When Incog flips green, someone should shoot him. Twice for good measure.
24. Caller- Town and a more than decent analyst. None of his posts are saliently scummy, and volunteering to die if he is mafia is ballsy as hell.
25. Fishball- goes from useless to more useful, makes me think he is town as this is the trait of a solid late game town player, who avoids the mafia's attention and then comes up with some solid contributions.
Moderator
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
May 22 2011 03:31 GMT
#1411
On May 22 2011 12:06 infinitestory wrote:
But that means the Incog list wouldn't give "0 mafia"


Just saying there are a few people who have random votes that stayed off the votelist, so checking incog's should read 0 mafia if he is scum. Why wouldn't it unless the mafia played extremely risky.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
May 22 2011 03:32 GMT
#1412
On May 22 2011 12:20 Chezinu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 22 2011 11:41 bumatlarge wrote:
People haven't been analyzing chezinu, they are just taking what they can get from him outside of reading his posts.


So true...


Have you played terraria yet chez? Give me your opinions on that.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
Chezinu
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7447 Posts
May 22 2011 03:40 GMT
#1413
On May 22 2011 12:32 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 22 2011 12:20 Chezinu wrote:
On May 22 2011 11:41 bumatlarge wrote:
People haven't been analyzing chezinu, they are just taking what they can get from him outside of reading his posts.


So true...


Have you played terraria yet chez? Give me your opinions on that.


1. No I haven't
2. I just youtubed it and it looks like 2d minecraft but with more fighting action.

The crazy thing is that there was a tree house in this video I watched..+ Show Spoiler +
Interesting..
lol, clueless in The Prism!
infinitestory
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4053 Posts
May 22 2011 03:42 GMT
#1414
On May 22 2011 12:31 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 22 2011 12:06 infinitestory wrote:
But that means the Incog list wouldn't give "0 mafia"


Just saying there are a few people who have random votes that stayed off the votelist, so checking incog's should read 0 mafia if he is scum. Why wouldn't it unless the mafia played extremely risky.

because chaoser voted for incog
Translator:3
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 22 2011 03:50 GMT
#1415
bumatlarge for 10./10 best post of the game.

GM is colorblind.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Fishball
Profile Joined December 2005
Canada4788 Posts
May 22 2011 03:52 GMT
#1416
Alright, let's break down Chezinu's announcement again.

On May 22 2011 10:51 Chezinu wrote:
The Sanity Speaks Out


      I have an announce I would like to make. I have been pretending to be the traitor the whole game to try and waste the mafia's only attempt at guessing who the traitor is. I started off this game with a lover and I thought to myself, "Why would mafia ever want to be a lover with Chezinu -- that is suicide" So in the beginning, I was thinking maybe my lover is innocent and the mafia were hoping that my lover would accuse me of being mafia. So, I decided to mess with the mafia and with my lover and pretend to be the traitor to see what they would do. . Well, my lover never really accused me in the thread -- maybe they wanted to live themselves. So I went extreme and guess what? Town didn't even accuse me very much nor mafia. So I was thinking maybe they are keeping me around for my destructive behavior. I ended up PMing my lover that I was the traitor before I died by a nuke coming straight after me. AND guess what happened??? I lived!!! So I decided to play along with being a traitor a little longer in hopes that the mafia would waste their guess on me. I think about now they have already used it because my lover has stopped talking to me. Because the mafia will probably protect me again tonight I thought I would reveal my lover in hopes to eliminate both of us. Sadly, I wasn't able to probe out any other mafia members from my lover as I had hoped. Now, as you all been waiting for, my lover is + Show Spoiler +
Foolishness

       I know this is crazy and I don't quite understand the mafia's decision on this either.. but that is how it happened. So hurry up and kill me or foolishness. I might have some explosive secrets to reveal.


On May 22 2011 11:16 Chezinu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 22 2011 11:11 Fishball wrote:
On May 22 2011 11:02 Chezinu wrote:
yeah, I tried to get information out of him, but that didn't happen. He was waiting to get me confirmed by Ver. I'm kind of disappointed in myself this game.


Based on what you say, you're not the Cupid.
You say you started off the game with a Lover though? When was that? A little more precise please.

Right after I got my role.


Let's assume what Chezinu says is true here.

Chezinu claims he was paired to Foolishness by the Cupid at the very start of the game when we received our drafted roles. Why would anyone do that? If the Cupid is Mafia, why would he pair Chezinu with one of their own? If the Cupid is Town, this scenario also seems extremely random. It's quite mind boggling.

Chezinu also says that he was able to save himself after messaging Foolishness claiming that he is the Traitor. Now this is either bad logic on his part, or a flat out lie. If Foolishness is Mafia, the Mafia would be inclined to bus the nuke away from Chezinu anyways, since his life is linked with Foolishness. Claiming to be the Traitor doesn't mean much to the Mafia; The Traitor doesn't bring extra KP to the table, and doesn't offer any power from of a role to the Mafia, besides having the ability to communicate with them.



Now this is how I see it.

If Chezinu is Town, and is paired with a Lover; If the Lover is Town, the person would have called out when the nuke was heading for Chezinu, but since this did not happen, the Lover is likely Mafia. It also makes no sense for a Town to make such a claim, unless he is the Traitor.

However, we'll have to assume the worse case scenario when we act, as if Chezinu is lying.

- If Chezinu is Mafia, and is paired with a Townie, both has to die regardless of who we hit.
- If Chezinu is Townie, and is paired with a Mafia, both has to die regardless of who we hit.
- If Chezinu is Mafia, and is not paired with anyone. If we hit him, only he will die. If we choose to hit the Lover he claims to have, his "Lover" dies, but Chezinu will not if he lied about the pairing.
- If Chezinu is Traitor, and is paired with a Townie; If we hit him, only he will die. If we choose to hit the Lover he claims to have, his "Lover" dies, but Chezinu will not if he lied about the pairing.

Which means our best option is to kill Chezinu himself. This eliminates both worst case scenarios.



I noticed Chezinu and Foolishness has posted when I am typing up this post. I'm now more inclined to believe what Chezinu has said, but still, play it solid, play it safe Town.

Like mentioned yesterday with infinitestory, if Chezinu lives through the night, whoever get's the King's lynch should execute Chezinu right away without delays. Don't bother announcing you are the King.
靈魂交響曲
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
May 22 2011 03:53 GMT
#1417
On May 22 2011 12:30 GMarshal wrote:
17. Eiii- gave himself away earlier as I pointed out. He is mafia.


When was this? Apart from scolding me day 1 for joyously voting decon I don't think you've addressed me at all :S
:3
Foolishness *
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3044 Posts
May 22 2011 03:54 GMT
#1418
I don't see how killing Ace can be justified when Incognito is still alive.

We have a list of which 2/5 are mafia. We knew this yesterday and we still haven't done anything about it (a 40% chance is pretty nice). Now our chances are 50% since flamewheel died. Furthermore Incog's role is useless since he will clearly be bussed or bought by the politician. It's reasonable to assume mafia got the politician (and the kingmaker as well, what a deadly combo).

If Ace is mafia, so is infinitestory and Fishball. And that sounds ridiculous compared to the simpler Incog/Chez/Radfield team.
geript: "Foolishness's cases are persuasive and reasonable but leave you feeling dirty afterwards. Kinda like a whore." ---- Manager of the TL Mafia forum, come play!
Node
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States2159 Posts
May 22 2011 03:59 GMT
#1419
In case I die:

I gave my item to bumatlarge. If he doesn't use it today, lynch him.
whole lies with a half smile
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
May 22 2011 04:03 GMT
#1420
Sweet!
Together but separate, like oatmeal
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