Pick Your Power Insane! - Page 73

On May 22 2011 14:21 kitaman27 wrote:
2/6 are scum

Caller, Incognito, Chezinu, GMarshal, Node, flamewheel

Guess where that leaves us.

On May 22 2011 15:12 GMarshal wrote:
Sorry for the late post guys, I checked the Incognito list.

1 of Ace, infinitestory, Foolishness, Chaoser, Barundar is scum. The rest are townies, or cleverly disguised mafia.

My bet is chaoser

Take this as a "fuck you" mafia for not killing me. Now I have to substantiate all that stuff I said in what was supposed to be my last post.

Oh and ##Vote: Caller

The list has spoken.

On May 22 2011 15:15 infinitestory wrote:

uhh, do you mean
Ace, infinitestory, Foolishness, Chaoser, bumatlarge, Caller, Chezinu, KillerSOS

or perhaps

Ace, infinitestory, Foolishness, Chaoser, bumatlarge, Caller

or was the list heavily tinkered with?

On May 22 2011 16:51 bumatlarge wrote:
It's posts all the results of investigative actions last night and the way it was worded means we know exactly who is the target without saying who the DT is.

So we get GM's list regardless If he really is that DT. Pretty crazy.

On May 22 2011 17:59 Eiii wrote:
...why did foolishness not deny that he was chenzu's lover? :s

On May 22 2011 10:51 Chezinu wrote:


      I have an announce I would like to make. I have been pretending to be the traitor the whole game to try and waste the mafia's only attempt at guessing who the traitor is. I started off this game with a lover and I thought to myself, "Why would mafia ever want to be a lover with Chezinu -- that is suicide" So in the beginning, I was thinking maybe my lover is innocent and the mafia were hoping that my lover would accuse me of being mafia. So, I decided to mess with the mafia and with my lover and pretend to be the traitor to see what they would do. . Well, my lover never really accused me in the thread -- maybe they wanted to live themselves. So I went extreme and guess what? Town didn't even accuse me very much nor mafia. So I was thinking maybe they are keeping me around for my destructive behavior. I ended up PMing my lover that I was the traitor before I died by a nuke coming straight after me. AND guess what happened??? I lived!!! So I decided to play along with being a traitor a little longer in hopes that the mafia would waste their guess on me. I think about now they have already used it because my lover has stopped talking to me. Because the mafia will probably protect me again tonight I thought I would reveal my lover in hopes to eliminate both of us. Sadly, I wasn't able to probe out any other mafia members from my lover as I had hoped. Now, as you all been waiting for, my lover is + Show Spoiler +
       I know this is crazy and I don't quite understand the mafia's decision on this either.. but that is how it happened. So hurry up and kill me or foolishness. I might have some explosive secrets to reveal.

On May 22 2011 12:21 Foolishness wrote:

I honestly don't think is going to save us from dying.

On May 22 2011 12:22 Foolishness wrote:
Rather, I should say save YOU from dying.

On May 22 2011 12:26 Chezinu wrote:
That is the point. Mafia will probably protect me night, so I thought I would open up the target a bit to increases the chances of us dying

PS: I'm not the traitor

On May 20 2011 18:03 Incognito wrote:

Instead of discussing "if I flip red" or "if I flip green", can you at least TRY to analyze what I am? I mean, its not that difficult.

If Chezinu is town he should claim his numbers and role.

I propose the following. Mr. Wiggles dayvigs me. When I flip town, you lynch Ace. I messed up my day 1 strategy, and it has blown up into this big mess. And while I think Ace is town, he is totally off the right track. While I understand how you think my crazy actions and reckless day 1 play is anti-town, Ace's play is equally as bad. And his ego and thread influence are big enough to drive this town into the ground even if he isn't mafia. Its obvious Ace isn't playing in the best interests of town and is instead blowing up the thread to feed his ego and perpetuate his godlike identity. Hopefully once we're both dead and the dust clears, the atmosphere can be calm enough again that some others such as Foolishness/Flamewheel/Radfield can step it up and actually lead us somewhere.

I will be mostly gone tomorrow for a recording session so aside from perhaps a small comment here or there, I won't be saying much from here on out.

Final thoughts:

---

Based on yesterday's lynch, it seems really strange that the mafia would stack 2 on Kavdragon, especially since they knew he would flip green, and that it would be the most likely list to be vote checked, given that town now knows that Kavdragon is innocent, and that I am heavily suspected and am also on that list. Upon further reflection, I feel like the vote list has been tampered with (likely), or that GMarshal fabricated it to lead us on a witch hunt (unlikely). Regardless, it shouldn't be accepted as the word of god.

Out of the people on the list, the only person I really had suspicions about was Chezinu.

Node seems plenty town to me, because his early contributions in the role picking phase were more than just "I don't like GMarshal's plan". While he hasn't been particularly insightful, Node doesn't seem like he's planning his actions. He seems to be reacting to information naturally and spontaneously as it is uncovered, and he seems to at least be thinking about the game dynamics. This generally isn't a mafia trait. Mafia tend to want to act only when they have a plan an they know how their action will affect the course of the game. When there are a lot of unknown variables around, mafia is reluctant to take a position. As Caller said, mafia operate best in an environment where they are acting from a position of certainty while the town is acting from a position of doubt. Node seems to be genuinely wanting to contribute, even when there is almost perfect chaos in the thread, an environment where mafia really doesn't need to do anything.

Caller day 1 looks plenty townie. He isn't afraid to make accusations, and generally seems unafraid. It would be nice to see some more conviction from Caller, but for now there doesn't seem to be any pressing reason to suspect him.

GMarshal day 1 acts consistently with his XXXVII appearance as town. Immediately gets started on a plan and is intent on contributing. His accusations of KillerSOS and Dreamflower are weak, but don't say much otherwise. His reaction in the voting is more consistent with his town play where the only thing he is really guilty of is that he is easily swayed. But GMarshal does that as town too. Of course, there are many reasons why a mafia GMarshal would want to post a 2/6 vote check list, but I don't see it as a likely outcome. GMarshal really isn't a dominant player in the grand political scheme of things, so volunteering this kind of information seems like little gain, especially if you know that its very likely that Incognito will be lynched.

Flamewheel has been taking a nonchalant attitude this game. Seems to have been a good choice. Either way, he thinks logically and doesn’t seem to be afraid of anything. No eye popping content coming from him, but nothing suspicious either, as he provides logical and reasonable data.

Overall, the fact that 2/6 mafia showed up on my list is surprising to me. Im going to expect that I was framed or something, but don’t let that stop you from just vigging me today.

---

Barundar pops up to semi-defend Kavdragon (when he FOSes Caller for adding another suspect). A wreckless and unnecessary move given by the fact that Kavdragon was indeed town. Looking over at Radfield’s Barundar analysis again, I have to disagree. Barundar’s post does give an inconclusive opinion of me, but his points about me are legitimate and he does credit me for contributing key ideas. The kicker though, is the last sentence in that post, which is a question. Barundar asks “I guess my question to Foolishness and Ace is, how do you explain his contributions with regards to roles if he is mafia?” This indicates that Barundar isn’t trying to “subtly push the Incog lynch without being responsible for it”, as Radfield claims. Barundar doesn’t post as if he is trying to sway public opinion. The open endedness of his question suggests that rather than attempting to spread doubt, he is legitimately confused and wants to find an explanation to explain the incongruence between my wacky accusations and my other pro-town ideas. Post day 1, Barundar keeps up with showing town-aligned actions. Posts a list of suspects (after the vote, so as not to split the vote further), and posts a reasonable blues list along with opinions and an insight into how the lynch unfolded. Barundar is pretty town here.

Radfield has the most elaborate pre-day 1 plan. Although I disagree with a lot of it (including a long list of roles that are unreasonably and irrationally labeled as “anti-town”), this is legitimate contribution. Radfield isn’t afraid of throwing out ideas and tweaking/improving his plan in response to criticism. Radfield not taking the role he assigned himself is not suspicious at all. He even said himself that the top 6 players should outwardly “agree” to follow the plan even if they aren’t. Given that Ace hasn’t come out yelling and screaming that Radfield picked an obviously anti-town role, it’s pretty much a no-brainer that Radfield’s pick makes sense somehow. Ace says that Radfield’s accusation of Barundar makes him suspicious. Even assuming that Barundar is town, this accusation makes no sense. Townies are wrong all the time. The important thing to analyze is not the fact that Radfield accuses a townie, but how he does it. In this case, Radfield’s accusation is coupled with reasonable sounding analysis, and Radfield continues to defend his case after the initial accusation. If Radfield as mafia doesn’t make sense since he could’ve jumped on the Kavdragon train and pinned all the responsibility on me. Radfield’s attack on Barundar doesn’t look like a scum post trying to hide the fact that Radfield is mafia. It just seems like a misguided analysis. Radfield is transparent about his thought process, and consistently shows that he is thinking reasonably and isn’t sticking to hard and fast policies.

Infinitestory immediately jumps into the discussion on roles. His reactions to my unexplained voting are excellent. In response to my request that Flamewheel nuke GMarshal and my vote for Kurumi, infinitestory not only questions me, but lists 3 points of why my accusation was ludicrous and shows that he went through GMarshal and Kurumi’s posts and found nothing noteworthily suspicious. Not really something mafia would be naturally inclined to do. On night 1, his official accusation post of me is long. Didn’t read it, but its reasonable. Infinitestory had over 2 days to hop on my bandwagon, but it seems like he was legitimately confused and waiting for an explanation before coming to conclusions. It doesn’t seem like infinitestory is trying to hide anything here.

Tnkted has a few reasonable posts in the early game, suggesting that the top 5 spots be protected (not really that original, but ok), as well as a suggestion for inventions. His later post summing up his thoughts about me/Radfield/Ace and his suspects seems reasonable. He’s spontaneous and inquisitive. Nothing suspicious here.

Bumatlarge contributes early. A bit late out the gate and copies some stuff from Radfield though. After this, he posts a lurker list and votes one of them, which doesn’t say much, but isn’t a contribution. After this though, he still seems inquisitive and seems to be giving a genuine attempt to figure things out. More contribution from bum would be nice, but at this point no reason to suspect him.

Its getting late now and I don’t feel like doing writeups on everyone.

Townies
Mr. Wiggles
Kurumi
Kitaman27 – leaning townie
Dreamflower – leaning townie, but not too confident
Eiii – leaning townie
Fishball – leaning townie

Mafia
OriginalName
KillerSOS
Chaoser
Foolishness

In Limbo
Deconduo

Hmm I only came up with 4 mafia candidates. Well if one of Chezinu/Deconduo make it in then its 5. I’m going to guess there’s 1 mole.

Anyway, good luck.