Pick Your Power Insane! - Page 74

On May 19 2011 13:23 Ace wrote:
We've got a problem here.

Radfield according to your breakdown of "strategy" earlier in the game you were supposed to pick up Vote Rigger.

But I checked you out last night and you aren't the Vote Rigger. I won't announce the role you have, but it is concerning you didn't follow your own plan.

Explain.

On May 19 2011 13:30 Ace wrote:
ooooooo my now things are getting interesting!


Incognito is still going to get lynched, but somebody screwed up. Flamewheel isn't the problem here though. Something is off between Radfield and deconduo.

On May 19 2011 13:36 Ace wrote:
*nods in agreement*

I had to put my gun on hold last night because I talked to myself and said "wait, the unRadfield/Incognito duo would try and pull some slick stuff!"

and they did.

RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAADFIELD! WHERE ARE YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?

On May 19 2011 13:37 Ace wrote:


you're 100% correct ^_^

talk about "telegraphing" huh? lol

On May 19 2011 13:43 Ace wrote:

Yea. The way they behaved Day 1 they both played "risky" by their own words because imo they felt invincible. Waiting for Radfield to answer why he didn't pick up Vote Rigger.

On May 20 2011 01:29 Ace wrote:

I know what your role is and thanks for the explanation but I really want to know why you didn't follow your own plan?

Secondly don't tell Wiggles who to vote for.

On May 20 2011 01:48 Ace wrote:



Depends on your definition of anti-town and what the circumstances are. Whether it's anti-town or not isn't the case here and I never commented on anyone's pre-determined "anti-town" lists.

The fact that he is high up in the draft order and made a plan that he didn't follow, combined with his sketchy play Day 1 makes this an issue. His answer to my question was pretty bad and I expected something more.

On May 20 2011 07:00 Ace wrote:
I have my suspicion because of your Day 1 plan. I mean you can't even give me a decent reason for why you didn't follow it? But don't role claim, I could have said what your role is myself. For now we'll drop it.

On May 21 2011 18:44 Incognito wrote:




Ace does not fail to disappoint. This game should be a great example for how to play politics and how to play mafia.

Lets look at Dreamflower's points against Ace. First, she points out that Ace is tunneling off of very little information, and isn't looking at other people's suspicious actions. Only a few posts into the game, Ace suddenly comes to the conclusion that I'm mafia because I'm finger pointing, and pushes that point through the thread. Yes, I was finger pointing. But why does this make me mafia? Ace gives no such reason. Instead, he continues to push this idea until it finally becomes the truth. Between day 1 and now, Ace has successfully turned the small point about finger pointing into a mass lynch Incognito movement. This is exactly what mafia wants to do. They want to push bad lynches while inflating the notion that the target is "scummy". Once the target flips town, the accuser merely points to the evidence that the "target was scummy". And they are likely to get away with it, given the fact that they've gotten half the town to believe that "target was scummy". So what has Ace been doing here? He's been pushing a movement to lynch me off of shoddy evidence while hiding behind his "finger pointers are suspicious" shield.

Let us examine the point about finger pointing. Is finger pointing inherrently suspicious? It is true that mafia want to lynch townies. It is also true that it is generally bad for town when there are multiple candidates out on the field, each with shoddy reasoning. It is also true that bandwagons formed on shoddy reasoning are anti-town. The crux of the matter is that it is anti-town when townies are lynched on shoddy reasoning. Ideally, the mafia want to push innocent lynches without being linked to the lynch. Mafia want to start a bandwagon on townies without being noticed. Why would town want to finger point? Generally, it is a bad idea to vote without explanation. Yet plenty of townies have done it, some to apply pressure (read: Foolishness in XXXVII for Seraph). Inactives also tend to do this. Is this pro-town behavior? Generally not. Is it an indication that said player is scum? No, townies do this all the time. So in general, while finger pointing isn't a very town-friendly action, it isn't a "scumtell". It is a slightly anti-town action that may be good support for other evidence that someone is mafia, but it should certainly not be the basis for any scum accusation.

The second piece of Dreamflower's analysis is critical. She points out that Ace has literally ignored all my real contributions, hasn't criticized any of my actual points, and hasn't said anything definitive about anyone (except me and Radfield, who Dreamflower points out was also accused off of shoddy reasoning - Ace accused him because he started the Barundar lynch, even though we have no evidence of Barundar's town alignment). Note how Ace also doesn’t respond to Dreamflower’s accusation, but simply points out some errors in Dreamflower’s post that aren’t crucial to her argument.

If you go back to look at Ace's posts, Dreamflower’s accusations are accurate. Ace ignores all my early game points about the politician/vote rigger combo, town roles, and thesis about how the game is progressing. Now I would perfectly understand if Ace disagreed with my points (people like Radfield certainly did). Yet he didn't do that, he merely ignored my post and throughout the whole entire game has refused to acknowledge the fact that I made some key contributions to the discussion. In the meanwhile though, he attacks me for asking people to reread the thread without specifying anything special. Its clear Ace is reading my posts. Selectively reading, that is. Ace is glad to point out where I'm scummy, yet fails to acknowledge some pretty important contributions I have made.

Ace agrees that Kavdragon is suspicious earlier in the day ("something piqued my interest), prods him for a few pages in the thread, and even agrees that Kavdragon is timid, but then turns full circle and attacks me for leading the Kavdragon lynch. This is an excellent example of how mafia play. Ace is really the one who starts the Kavdragon lynch. Yet in public opinion, I am responsible for the lynch. Here's what happened. After Caller and Ace get the ball rolling, I fall for the bait and go on a rampant lynch Kavdragon train. My confidence and thread influence work in the mafia's favor this time and is perfect for Ace, as he can now do a 180 and appear to be "saving" Kavdragon while assigning responsibility for the lynch to me. When Kavdragon pops up town, Ace immediately points out the Kavdragon voters as super suspicious while making himself appear like he tried to stop a town lynch. But what did Ace really do? He accuses Kavdragon of BSing when Kavdragon claims he is "trying to gather information", and tells Kavdragon that he won't live til day 2. Later in the day after I have already started on the lynch Kavdragon train, Ace comes out and agrees that Kavdragon is acting timid, thus throwing more fuel onto the fire. Ace never votes Kavdragon, and toward the end of the day, switches his vote back to me (from Radfield) and states that "suspicious are the votes on KavDragon". Complete 180 from his previous (vicious) attacks that Kavdragon wouldn't live to see day 2 and that he was so timid. Once Kavdragon flips green, Ace trumpets the alarm, cries foul, and pretends like he never had a hand in the Kavdragon lynch. This is an example of perfect execution of scum play. Ace shows a textbook example of how to effectively finger point as mafia. Unlike me on day 1, he actively gives reasons for Kavdragon’s scumminess (the reasons are false scumtells, but they seem convincing as reasons nonetheless). This accusation catches fire, which leads others (Caller and myself) to take notice and agree with them. Once we build cases of our own, Ace then backs out right in time to pin the responsibility on me, using it to add fuel to the anti-Incognito case. As evidenced by the fact that he uses the Kavdragon lynch as a reason to paint me red, Ace clearly did not simply change his mind about the Kavdragon lynch. He intentionally started the lynch and blamed it on someone else. Townies have no reason to start a lynch and then turn around and accuse people on the bandwagon. Ace is hiding the fact that he was a major contributor to the Kavdragon lynch.

Continuing on into day 2, Ace pops up and cries foul yet again after checking Radfield. While it is very likely that Ace is a capitalist and truly did check Radfield, his announcement does a brilliant job of adding fuel to the fire and furthering his case against "the unRadfield/Incognito duo", which is a complete fabrication. While it is true that Radfield has defended me, it should be pretty clear that Radfield is actually trying to think things through. In any case, Ace's cries of foul play further cast suspicion on Radfield even though Ace never reveals what Radfield's role is. Ace accuses Radfield for not following his own plan (hardly an indication of mafia), and announces to the world that Radfield "tried to pull some slick stuff", implying that Radfield has shady play without giving details. Ace creates a drama about Radfields role, gives out no details, and uses this to further his anti-Radfield case (at this point Radfield is inexplicably tied to me in his eyes). This effectively furthers mafia goals and places doubt on Radfield without Ace having to lie or show any real analysis. Could this action have been done by a townie? A townie has no reason to make a big fuss about Radfield’s role if it is not an absolute indication of scum. After Radfield says that anyone who knows his role should understand why he did not follow his own plan, Ace accepts this explanation, yet still “wonders” why Radfield didn’t follow his plan. Soon after, Ace drops the issue. From Radfield’s explanation, it seems clear that Ace should’ve already known the answer before asking the question. Which means that the only reason Ace could have asked the question was to cause a commotion and spread doubt about Radfield. Ace makes no conclusions and provides no further insights. His reaction to Radfield’s “its obvious” explanation shows that he wasn’t being inquisitive or trying to figure things out, he is intentionally spreading doubt.

The vote list also furthers his case against me. Note however, that none of this evidence singles me out as mafia. He trumpets the "kill people on the vote list" mantra to make people want to focus on killing me instead of trying to go for some other suspects. He accepts the vote list at face value, and frames any attack on non-vote list suspects as irrational and anti-town. However, as I and others have pointed out, there is no real reason why we should have utter faith in the vote list. Ace himself even admits that he believes that the possibility of having a framer/GF is high, yet continues to pressure people to focus on the vote list. By focusing on the vote list, Ace is attempting to get townies to conclude on their own that I am mafia, once again without providing any analysis. Here's how the psychology works: Ace emphasizes that 2/5 on the list are mafia and that it is irrational not to lynch off the list. This causes people to think to themselves, "2/5 are mafia, so who do I think are the most suspicious?" Given Ace's constant pushing that I am mafia, townies are likely to subconsciously come to the conclusion that I am mafia, especially if they don't have the time or the willpower to go back through the thread and do a careful analysis. In essence, Ace's reinforcement of the vote list guides the players to the conclusion that I am mafia without him having to provide analysis.

Once I nuke Chezinu, Ace again picks at the weaknesses in my posts while ignoring how my actions run counter to what the mafia would want to do. He claims that I agreed that America was an anti-town role (I did not), that I am going against my day 1 plan (I did not have a day 1 plan), that if Chezinu flips mafia then I am bussing him (no reasoning), and that I am anti-town because I did not discuss the nuking. Yet later he declares that "Chezinu is the obvious scum for sure". Is not discussing the nuking anti-town? Well, by itself, not discussing the nuking can by no means be claimed to be a pro-town action, but it isn't necessarily anti-town either. I had many reasons for not discussing the nuke, including not wanting to be bought by a potential mafia politician. Not discussing the nuke doesn't say anything about my alignment one way or the other. Notice how Ace goes about attacking me here. He tries to pin me on ideas I didn't say, paints America as an anti-town role, and questions how not discussing the nuke is pro-town. What he basically does is picks out errors I make and questions how they are pro-town. Logically, yes, not discussing my nuke is not pro-town (although its not anti-town). Ace uses biased questions and frames them in a way that makes me look guilty, when in fact I am not. He emphasizes things that are easy to paint as anti-town actions, while at the same time ignoring contributions I have made that show I'm pro-town. This is exactly what mafia want to do. But mafia is a game where you cannot judge someone as mafia just by how many sketchy actions they make. Proper analysis considers all of a players actions and analyzes them in the context of “what makes this action an action that only can be made by mafia”. Ace has not considered this, and his case against me is flimsy at best. His points consist of minor “scumtells” such as being on the wrong lynch (twice now), finger pointing, picking America, and nuking without discussion.

In conclusion, the evidence shows that Ace is undeniably mafia. His actions perfectly align with a mafia mindset, and he carries out actions that could not be made by a townie. In the Kavdragon lynch, Ace is hiding from the fact that he is a major contributor to the lynch, and with the Radfield day 2 commotion, Ace was intentionally spreading doubt.

Ace has effectively planted the "Incognito is finger pointing and thus mafia" idea into people's heads. Once I flip town, he will get off the hook because everyone will believe the "fact" that Incognito was scummy, when in reality, Ace has merely fabricated this entire idea. This reminds me of the movie Inception, which, ironically, features Leonardo DiCaprio. I must applaud him for this cleverly thought out humor.

On May 22 2011 23:32 bumatlarge wrote:
We can wait for the radio before jumping on to anything for certain. I still doubt that Ace is scum, even with incog popping town. Can we also analyzed exactly what happened yesterday and what mafia KP is at right now? I think we can reasonably assume it is at 1. 2kp were used yesterday to hit FW and scamp. 2kp were used today to hit node and barundar. Chez the scum CPR is dead, so that leaves only 1 kp for mafia to use, if we assume mafia didn't get very unlucky with stacked hits (also assuming ace used his KP on incog).

I think we are in a better spot then people are making us out to be. Lack of politician and CGF, evidence of alternate GF leave 2 open roles. Neither seem to have consistent KP like CPR, so we can probably dote on what they will be.

NRA Member
Hero
Janitor
Vengeful player
Zombie
Framer

These are what I find most likely at this point. NRA, janitor, hero and framer seem obvious, as the other two require getting lynched. They all involve causing confusion for town in order to extend the game and as such put it in their favor. I do not think they have more KP then town at this point, so we might have the upperhand if this is the case.

So I think we should for the moment heed what caller and radfield say, and take more then just DT actions into consideration when deciding lynches. It will benefit us until we see more information that say otherwise. I think the radio will help a good deal with this, as I find it unlikely scum picked dt roles. And also I will have to confess, I am not really the watcher the radio will show that, but I can explain if you want me to. Otherwise, I'd rather keep my real role a secret.