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On April 30 2011 04:21 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2011 02:27 Jackal58 wrote:On April 30 2011 00:53 Impervious wrote:
Ok, for those of you who are skeptical of bum, what do you think about lynching him to prove it, to satisfy your curiosity?
If he really is the DT, his list and reasoning seems pretty solid, and I haven't seen any better ideas..... I am not in favor of lynching our DT. No matter how obsolete he just managed to make himself. why do you believe he's a DT so easily? There is no way you can 100% believe him so fast.
I'm not 100% anything. I just can't see him pulling a Pandain and then claiming I checked "insufficient information"
If that is the case then he's running some sort of gambit that makes no sense to anybody but himself.
On April 30 2011 04:33 bumatlarge wrote:
Because I'm hypothetically 100% correct! (and jackal is CL)
Though I am confused about tnkted, what the balls dude? Even if we both heavily suspect Ace, jackal or myself needs to be lynched so we can sort this out ASAP. I really don't see how you can make Ace out to be scum but thinking jackal is town at the same time.
You're hypothetically delusional. He can think that way because I am town.
Hell Ace was sure I was scum yesterday and now he's defending me. WTF!!!
You guys are all going batshit insane.
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On April 30 2011 04:35 Ace wrote:
bum the part of your post with bread crumbing is wrong though. You didn't know CL can communicate with Agents privately?
I'm reading that they get 1 message per day and 1 message per night, to any single sleeper agent. I am assuming there are no more then 5 agents, 4 alive. With one message to an individual when kenpachi was lynched and another when GM was shot, jackal would could have informed 2 other agents who exactly was on their entire team with the 20 character choice. The word car (i dont think you would want to use the 5 word limit) would inform them all that jackal is an agent at least. He could put CL afterwards to inform them of the role. The next 15 characters would be used to give the other 2 agents. I was saying that it would be funny if jackal wanted to use the 'happy birthday' if wiggles or Ace was scum. I wasn't going to go into more detail because it could easily be a misinterpretation, it was just a thought. It does not matter to agents, they just need one breadcrumb, and a ctrl+F. I believe that was Ace's point with the list, but it didn't include things outside the list where I would put crumbs as CL.
What othe thing did you think I thought the breadcrumbs were for Ace? I read the OP very clearly and I still believe I am on the right track.
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Alright bum, please stop with your statistical bullshit. The statistics are wrong, and RNG's are random.
I really can't understand why you would claim dt because you got an inconclusive result. Now, we can't even verify your claim by lynching you or Jackal, because no matter what either of you flip, we can't confirm anybody.
About the crumbs: It's stupid. As somebody said in the thread, it could be said that You're cell leader and I'm a sleeper cell agent because you said Batman in your opening post and I addressed you as batman in a later post.
You're not going to live past night two, unless the scum are really stupid. You are aware that we already lost one intelligence agent, right?
I'm really not sure about who to vote for at this point. Nobody seems good at the moment. I don't buy the connection between ace and Jackal, because from what I can tell the only evidence is the fact that they both wished Mr. Wiggles a happy birthday.
Lynching bum is stupid, he's a dead man walking anyways.
I'll have to look through the thread again. I'll post soon with a decision.
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Well right now jackal is in the lead with 3 votes.
I don't think bum is a dead man walking because if he's a Scum lying about being DT we are back to the same scenario tomorrow. His reasoning just doesn't add up period.
What othe thing did you think I thought the breadcrumbs were for Ace? I read the OP very clearly and I still believe I am on the right track.
Just what I said. I have no idea how your entire link between Me and Jackal = we both said happy birthday to Mr. Wiggles. Thats just ridiculous. We can all pick out arbitrary posts and say HEY LOOK A BREADCRUMB!
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On April 29 2011 17:24 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Wow, bum. Nowhere did I call you scum yet, I'm just trying to wrap my head around your claim that in my eyes, is bad play. nowhere did I "explode", either. I just don't like that you're trying to insinuate that I'm scum based on the silly notion people saying happy birthday is scum communicating. When I was talking about breadcrumbs, I was talking about ways that scum would direct scum, or let them know their identity. Just looking at the car ride, and saying, "He talked about a car ride! Message was car ride!", isn't very strong in my opinion. It looks like you're looking too far into it to me. What next, the person who also said they have exams is my scum-buddy because they also said they have exams? I'm also not attacking your analysis, because there isn't an analysis there to begin with, I'm arguing against your logic.
You're getting angry and throwing around accusations instead of answering any of my questions or addressing my points.
Who said I was angry? I mentioned the happy birthday as an item of interest which jackal happened to be involved in, and your initial response to my claim seemed like you took personal offense from my suggestion. Your calling it bad play as you are wrapping your head around it, so I'm not sure if you're thinking aloud in the thread or you have a preconceived notion of you are supposed to think of my claim.
If you got a message that said "carXXXXXXXXXX" would you dismiss jackal being scum? Of course not, you would assume that that is what he meant. That's all they should need. I didn't see anything else in this thread when I read it over that went as off-topic as jackal mentioning his carride. All you've done with my analysis is call it bad because I generalize jackal's behavior very quickly. There is no more need for it if I have seen jackal reference CL and breadcrumbs in every single post he has made in the first day. Only a CL would be that concerned about it.
And I do not care if it is obvious. A crumb just needs to slip by. If you go "well jackal's car ride was to obvious, it's not a real crumb" then congrats to jackal he did a good job!
EVERYONE talked about Cell leader and breadcrumbs on day 1, the only thing I find suspicious is Jackal pushing for whoever to explain his method of crumbing, so what else sets him apart?
And you drill me for picking one up? He's thoroughly panic-stricken over it.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 23:14 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 22:58 sandroba wrote:On April 25 2011 22:54 Ace wrote:On April 25 2011 22:46 sandroba wrote:
Ace, I trust your analysis and think you are a smart player, but I don't like the idea of feeding ideas to the cell leader. I don't see how this can be helpful for town as I can think of other methods of comunicating with the sleeper agents that do not involve using the posts in this thread. Well you can keep those methods to yourself since you don't seem intent on sharing. What I'm doing here is something else. Guess you'll just have to read into it a bit more. I'm going to post my three people without the msg then. Ace, GM, Mr. Wiggles. I would inform them of all other mafia players so they can operate normally without the fear of mislynching one of the other agents. Well thanks for that. And how would you transmit this information? You said you can do so without posting anything in the thread. I'm curious how that mechanic would work. You can't send names. You can only contact 1 at a time. You have 5 words or 20 characters/msg. Please don't answer that. God forbid the cell leader gets his hands on super secret stealth communications abilities. Please stop posting pointless "I would do something but I'm not telling you what it is" posts. This thread is for discussion. If you don't feel you can discuss something don't mention it. You're beginning to look a lot like somebody that wants to post a lot of useless stuff just to appear to be contributing.
That seems like borderline paranoia from sandroba not telling him how to inform all scum of who is who.
WHY would you claim, it doesn't help town, and it doesn't help you, so why? This pisses me off more than anything, because we lose a blue role for sure now if you're telling the truth.
And then tnkted doesn't die, who is the more important blue 
HOW CAN YOU BE SURE, that driving is a breadcrumb? At that point, you can go back in the thread and just construe talking about anything non-game related to be a scum tell, so what makes it particularly telling? just that he mentioned it three times?.
That there is nor reason to mention it. It doesn't have any effect on the thread what so ever. Thats what I think an obvious and good breadcrumb is.
I can't even understand half of what you say when you reply to me, but all I want is just to get to the bottom of things and address questions instead of sheeping and following blue claims without a thought. Your replies don't help put me at ease though, because you just go off on tangents and repeat yourself instead of discuss.
Ok then, what is the bottom of things? I am IA, so based purely on that jackal is 75% CL and 25% not. I have a very good eye for this day 1 shit. I wouldn't bring this up if I didn't think jackal was certain cell leader.
Right now, there's a about 8 people lurking, and the scum among them are just LOVING this, because it gives them cover to not do anything. Day ends in less than 24 hours, and the only people talking are me, you, ace, and san. Jackal made some posts, and why pushed for a lynch at the beginning of the day and then disappeared. Everyone else is invisible.
Well that is a real shame, because they need to provide input.Don't blame my claim for people's lurking. Blame their lurking for their lurking! I think 7 of those 8 are town so, I hope they can act in town's best interest.
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On April 30 2011 05:53 Ace wrote:Well right now jackal is in the lead with 3 votes. I don't think bum is a dead man walking because if he's a Scum lying about being DT we are back to the same scenario tomorrow. His reasoning just doesn't add up period. Show nested quote +
What othe thing did you think I thought the breadcrumbs were for Ace? I read the OP very clearly and I still believe I am on the right track.
Just what I said. I have no idea how your entire link between Me and Jackal = we both said happy birthday to Mr. Wiggles. Thats just ridiculous. We can all pick out arbitrary posts and say HEY LOOK A BREADCRUMB!
The happy birthday thing was a JOKE READ. AHHAHA WOULDNT THAT BE FUNNY?
On April 29 2011 10:54 bumatlarge wrote:That's about what I got. Also, here is some funny stuff. Just sayin if this is right, then I called it first. Show nested quote +On April 26 2011 08:06 Ace wrote:
Happy Birthday Wiggles.
Impervious can you list your 3 players? And Ace posts right after. Ace defintely knows Jackal is CL lololololol, and I think ace was trying to identify if jackal was pointing wiggles out as another agent. That would be hilarious. (Tackster said happy birthday too! But he doesn't count lololol) Show nested quote +On April 29 2011 09:04 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On April 29 2011 09:01 Jackal58 wrote:On April 29 2011 08:49 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
So... did the thread die? I want to type more on my new keyboard :p Breadcrumb? No, it was my birthday a couple days ago, and I got a mech keyboard, and blue switches are really fun to type on. Oh happy birthday wiggles! Im sure jackal wished you happy birthday in that message he sent you as well. So like, does mafia want to concede now, or do they want to make this enjoyable for me?
If you thought that was meant to be a big part the analysis then I need to shoot myself.
There were many other things in the analysis that were not doing you favors in cutting the connections with jackal. I got the feeling that you figured in some way, whether jackal msg'd you or not, that he was CL.
That you immediately assumed I was lying was what made me really think you were scum, instead of looking at both sides in the thread, like every other townie did, like varp, GGQ and impervious. Now you went back on that, so yeah I think you slipped there. But you shouldn't be lynched until after jackal.
And I'm not going to squirm no matter what happens in the lynch. I will make a check I deem most profitable for town, and if I survive I will give the results whether I get lynched after or not. Jackal as a mislynch would be an OUTSTANDING amount of bad luck for both of us. I still think he's 99% CL, but it would give town something to work with.
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On April 30 2011 05:47 VarpuliS wrote:
Alright bum, please stop with your statistical bullshit. The statistics are wrong, and RNG's are random.
I really can't understand why you would claim dt because you got an inconclusive result. Now, we can't even verify your claim by lynching you or Jackal, because no matter what either of you flip, we can't confirm anybody.
About the crumbs: It's stupid. As somebody said in the thread, it could be said that You're cell leader and I'm a sleeper cell agent because you said Batman in your opening post and I addressed you as batman in a later post.
You're not going to live past night two, unless the scum are really stupid. You are aware that we already lost one intelligence agent, right?
I'm really not sure about who to vote for at this point. Nobody seems good at the moment. I don't buy the connection between ace and Jackal, because from what I can tell the only evidence is the fact that they both wished Mr. Wiggles a happy birthday.
Lynching bum is stupid, he's a dead man walking anyways.
I'll have to look through the thread again. I'll post soon with a decision.
I'm an analyst, not an agent. Agent = Vig and analyst = cop.
I think there is another blue role, whether its one of these or one of the "not mentioned" roles.
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I'm glad your so positive Bum. I really am. The only satisfaction I'm going to get out of this is knowing that your grandiose plan of "Disrupting Scums Communications" isn't going to disrupt jack shit. And I'll even feel a little twinge of satisfaction when you get shot tonight or lynched tomorrow. Cause I honestly don't know wtf you are. I can't even claim some sooper secret double ought spy role cause I'm just vanilla. Well I could but it would be bullshit.
So to sum it all up:
1. You didn't disrupt anything.
2. If you're a DT you fucked town.
3 I'm annoyed that I'm going to get lynched on a bullshit plan that ain't going to do dick.
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On April 30 2011 06:11 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2011 17:24 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Wow, bum. Nowhere did I call you scum yet, I'm just trying to wrap my head around your claim that in my eyes, is bad play. nowhere did I "explode", either. I just don't like that you're trying to insinuate that I'm scum based on the silly notion people saying happy birthday is scum communicating. When I was talking about breadcrumbs, I was talking about ways that scum would direct scum, or let them know their identity. Just looking at the car ride, and saying, "He talked about a car ride! Message was car ride!", isn't very strong in my opinion. It looks like you're looking too far into it to me. What next, the person who also said they have exams is my scum-buddy because they also said they have exams? I'm also not attacking your analysis, because there isn't an analysis there to begin with, I'm arguing against your logic.
You're getting angry and throwing around accusations instead of answering any of my questions or addressing my points. Who said I was angry? I mentioned the happy birthday as an item of interest which jackal happened to be involved in, and your initial response to my claim seemed like you took personal offense from my suggestion. Your calling it bad play as you are wrapping your head around it, so I'm not sure if you're thinking aloud in the thread or you have a preconceived notion of you are supposed to think of my claim. If you got a message that said "carXXXXXXXXXX" would you dismiss jackal being scum? Of course not, you would assume that that is what he meant. That's all they should need. I didn't see anything else in this thread when I read it over that went as off-topic as jackal mentioning his carride. All you've done with my analysis is call it bad because I generalize jackal's behavior very quickly. There is no more need for it if I have seen jackal reference CL and breadcrumbs in every single post he has made in the first day. Only a CL would be that concerned about it.And I do not care if it is obvious. A crumb just needs to slip by. If you go "well jackal's car ride was to obvious, it's not a real crumb" then congrats to jackal he did a good job! Show nested quote +EVERYONE talked about Cell leader and breadcrumbs on day 1, the only thing I find suspicious is Jackal pushing for whoever to explain his method of crumbing, so what else sets him apart? And you drill me for picking one up? He's thoroughly panic-stricken over it. + Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 23:14 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 22:58 sandroba wrote:On April 25 2011 22:54 Ace wrote:On April 25 2011 22:46 sandroba wrote:
Ace, I trust your analysis and think you are a smart player, but I don't like the idea of feeding ideas to the cell leader. I don't see how this can be helpful for town as I can think of other methods of comunicating with the sleeper agents that do not involve using the posts in this thread. Well you can keep those methods to yourself since you don't seem intent on sharing. What I'm doing here is something else. Guess you'll just have to read into it a bit more. I'm going to post my three people without the msg then. Ace, GM, Mr. Wiggles. I would inform them of all other mafia players so they can operate normally without the fear of mislynching one of the other agents. Well thanks for that. And how would you transmit this information? You said you can do so without posting anything in the thread. I'm curious how that mechanic would work. You can't send names. You can only contact 1 at a time. You have 5 words or 20 characters/msg. Please don't answer that. God forbid the cell leader gets his hands on super secret stealth communications abilities. Please stop posting pointless "I would do something but I'm not telling you what it is" posts. This thread is for discussion. If you don't feel you can discuss something don't mention it. You're beginning to look a lot like somebody that wants to post a lot of useless stuff just to appear to be contributing. That seems like borderline paranoia from sandroba not telling him how to inform all scum of who is who. Show nested quote +WHY would you claim, it doesn't help town, and it doesn't help you, so why? This pisses me off more than anything, because we lose a blue role for sure now if you're telling the truth. And then tnkted doesn't die, who is the more important blue Show nested quote +HOW CAN YOU BE SURE, that driving is a breadcrumb? At that point, you can go back in the thread and just construe talking about anything non-game related to be a scum tell, so what makes it particularly telling? just that he mentioned it three times?. That there is nor reason to mention it. It doesn't have any effect on the thread what so ever. Thats what I think an obvious and good breadcrumb is. Show nested quote +I can't even understand half of what you say when you reply to me, but all I want is just to get to the bottom of things and address questions instead of sheeping and following blue claims without a thought. Your replies don't help put me at ease though, because you just go off on tangents and repeat yourself instead of discuss. Ok then, what is the bottom of things? I am IA, so based purely on that jackal is 75% CL and 25% not. I have a very good eye for this day 1 shit. I wouldn't bring this up if I didn't think jackal was certain cell leader. Show nested quote +Right now, there's a about 8 people lurking, and the scum among them are just LOVING this, because it gives them cover to not do anything. Day ends in less than 24 hours, and the only people talking are me, you, ace, and san. Jackal made some posts, and why pushed for a lynch at the beginning of the day and then disappeared. Everyone else is invisible. Well that is a real shame, because they need to provide input.Don't blame my claim for people's lurking. Blame their lurking for their lurking! I think 7 of those 8 are town so, I hope they can act in town's best interest.
This, I think, is the strongest part of bum's analysis on jackal, because I've seen the principle in action before and it's an easy way to accidentally slip your role. When you have a role and you are thinking about how to play it, that can subconsciously slip into your posts. jackal's focus on the CL and what the CL might be doing or thinking is very suspicious to me.
So far, his responses seem like a legitimately pissed off townie, though.
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##Vote: Darmousseh
Hardcore lurker here. Has contributed practically nothing. His posts: On April 25 2011 15:02 darmousseh wrote:
Hi guys, last three games i either died or got lynched day 1, please don't, i'm town and I want to help town out.
Also FOS on anyone suggesting that we use vigilante right away as we have zero information right now.
That is all for now.
He's town and he wants to help town... by not contributing anything. Very helpful /sarcasm
On April 25 2011 15:04 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 11:41 Vain wrote:On April 25 2011 11:38 Jackal58 wrote:
Well Gman. Since it appears that only you and I are playing and I know what I am huge fos on you.
In other words I'm going to bed. Hey, i'm still here too. Am going to bed now BECAUSE ITS 5 AM HERE  btw, maby dt's should double check if they get that not info sufficient thingy if they have enough time and the player looks trusted. oh well, we'll see how it plays out. Goodnight! Vain, I hope you aren't a dt because that is the most obvious blue tell ever in my opinion.
How is this a blue tell? It's on day 1, and he's making a suggestion to the dt's. I'm not sure how that makes him blue. Not super helpful.On April 25 2011 16:10 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 15:33 sandroba wrote:
EBWOP: I also agree that pointing out vigilantes is not a blue tell, but neither is the post he quoted, which is basically the same thing. If he thinks that what vain did is a blue tell he wouldn't do it if he was blue. He would only do it if he wants to appear to be blue. I did it because it's the biggest blue tell in the world. "Hey guys, let's dt check someone, don't mind me". It's just bad play, that's it. I have no FoS on him, i'm just saying that if he is dt, then we are screwed because mafia would probably pick that up faster than I did. For this very reason, I recommend a dt checks vein because if he isn't the dt, then he's probably scum with the whole "don't mind me" phrase.
Please note that the post of vain's that he quoted above was the only post vain had made. There's not evidence here that I'm ignoring. Still not sure how vain slipped that he was dt. This is a small contribution, there are flaws in the reasoning, and he never follows up on it.On April 26 2011 01:33 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2011 01:16 Rean wrote:On April 26 2011 00:43 Ace wrote:
Good job Rean, contribute more please. You're path to the lynch wagon won't take long with shit posts like that.
Post your lists or at least give some damn good reasons why this is useless. How about you give us a reason as to why this is NOT a waste of time? How is knowing what everyone would pick in the hypothetical situation they're GF getting us anywhere close to catching scum? I'm in agreement with rean, this doesn't seem like it will help at all. It's better to just try to analyze behavior and get information. It is different than normal mafia, but tells shouldn't be any different than a normal game. The biggest difference is that the mafia can't bus anyone and they are likely to be as sheepy as the rest of town and so it will be difficult to determine scum behavior off of voting patterns only.
Ace has already explained their purpose, so I won't again, but part of the idea was to get people talking. Darmousseh never posted a list.On April 27 2011 00:58 darmousseh wrote:
I like Gmarshal's post about wiggles, but I would take it farther since his posts seem suspect. Obviously I won't believe his list for sleeper agents, but I can take a guess that mr wiggles is probably scum.
##Vote: Mr. Wiggles
I can't seem to find the post that he's referring to. This is sheeping though, and not a good contribution. I'm assuming that GMarshal was just pressuring Wiggles for inactivity, because he removed the vote promptly. Nobody ever argued that wiggles was scum (up until that point in the game at least)On April 27 2011 02:20 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2011 02:13 Zorkmid wrote:
EBWOP:
Another thought Maybe Tkdted is seeking the protection of a possible medic role? It's pretty obvious what he is, but apparently calling out people when they make themselves too obvious to the mafia is frowned upon. People need to stop making so many tells, seriously.
What is he? I didn't catch that. He just said "my role is weird" I'm not sure about the tells thing. Darm seems to see them everywhere.
That's all! No contribution, no analysis, just filler posts agreeing with other people or being paranoid about blues. Step it up.
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bum what many other things? You have nothing. I know you're lying because your claim just. doesn't. make. sense. There is no "townie reaction here". The only reaction is that you said and I'll say this again:
1.) you investigated Jackal
2.) got an inconclusive result
In no way can you say Jackal is Scum for sure now. You got an IC result, figured Jackal must be the CL then went from there. That isn't actual Scum hunting is it? You're trying to fit Jackal into what you think happens to be Scummy instead of finding Jackal to be scum. Big difference here.
GGQ that part you bolded actually isn't a strong part of his analysis at all. Other players have talked about the CL, tnkted pulled some move earlier that was a "bread crumb", even GM made a list of DT checks and talked about the Intelligence Agent taking a shot Night 1:
So in what way does bum decide that jackal stands out more than any of them? You and everyone else need to change your votes. Especially with this little gem right here:
That you immediately assumed I was lying was what made me really think you were scum, instead of looking at both sides in the thread, like every other townie did, like varp, GGQ and impervious. Now you went back on that, so yeah I think you slipped there. But you shouldn't be lynched until after jackal.
It's Day 2. How do you know they are all town? Only way you would know that if is you know who is all Scum.
Hello Mr. Cell Leader.
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@VarpuliS: I understand darmousseh is lurking but we've got a bigger issue here. Can you change your vote to bum? We'll deal with the lurkers later assuming they don't get modkilled.
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@Ace: In the interest of ensuring that Jackal lives, fine. I don't think that Jackal is scum, and bum has been really stupid. If Darm avoids the modkill I'll press the issue again later.
##Unvote: Darmousseh
##Vote: bumatlarge
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On April 30 2011 07:08 Zorkmid wrote:
Delete this and get the fuck out of here
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On April 30 2011 07:08 Zorkmid wrote:
Please don't fuck with the game. This is as bad as still posting in the thread after you die.
I agree with Jackal. delete it and GTFO.
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United States22154 Posts
I just PMed him requesting he remove his post.
EDIT: That constitutes an attempt to affect the game postmortem, and I will support a ban for it, its not cool, not funny and basically a dick move
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I sent it to Chaoser and iGrok requesting they get the asshole banned.
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I can't stand people talking about the numbers anymore so here they are:
+ Show Spoiler +Time to Bayes it up! I is 'An inconclusive result is returned' C is 'The player investigated is the cell leader' There were 13 players when bum chose who to investigate. ALRIGHT LET'S DO THIS ![[image loading]](http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?\mathbb{P}\left%28C\right%29%20=%20\frac{1}{13},\mathbb{P}\left%28\bar{C}\right%29%20=%20\frac{12}{13}) The probability that a randomly selected player is the cell leader is 1/13, so the probability that a randomly selected player is NOT the cell leader is 12/13. ![[image loading]](http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?\mathbb{P}\left%28I|\bar{C}\right%29%20=%20\frac{1}{4}) Given that the player investigated is not the cell leader, there's a one in four (25%) chance that the investigation returns inconclusive. ![[image loading]](http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?\mathbb{P}\left%28I|C\right%29=1) But given that the player investigated is the cell leader, an investigation will always give an inconclusive result. That's all we need. Plug it into Bayes' Theorem: ![[image loading]](http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?\mathbb{P}\left%28C|I\right%29=\frac{\mathbb{P}\left%28I|C\right%29\mathbb{P}\left%28C\right%29}{\mathbb{P}\left%28I|C\right%29\mathbb{P}\left%28C\right%29+\mathbb{P}\left%28I|\bar{C}\right%29\mathbb{P}\left%28\bar{C}\right%29}) (That's the probability of 'A randomly selected player is the cell leader given the investigation on them returned inconclusive' on the left there) ![[image loading]](http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?\mathbb{P}\left%28C|I\right%29=\frac{\frac{1}{1}\frac{1}{13}}{\frac{1}{1}\frac{1}{13}+\frac{1}{4}\frac{12}{13}}) ![[image loading]](http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?\mathbb{P}\left%28C|I\right%29=\frac{1}{4}) Done.
...that said, I don't think the analysis is very strong. I'm at a loss as to what to do today. Our best bet is to vote for the scummiest player, and the player who has claimed DT in a noncheckable way at a time that didn't make any sense for town and completely dominated the day's discussion, and focused town's attention on him/his target is more suspicious to me at the moment than the guy who had a few posts that could be breadcrumbs.
##vote bum
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I'm going to say, we should lynch bum. I've already stated the reasons why I disagree with him.
If he pops DT, we shoot Jackal on the 25% chance that he's the Cell Leader. He's claimed green already, so his death isn't a giant loss if he's not Cell Leader besides just what he brings to the table as a player. We can discuss this more after the lynch though.
If Bum pops scum, then I'm going to heavily suggest a real DT check on Ace, as well as increased scrutiny on GM's vig list, because of this post:
On April 27 2011 23:39 Zorkmid wrote:
Let's wait and see if Ace is still alive tomorrow before we waste a check on him.
It will take us a long time to determine whether we have a medic or not, as no sane person with a sense of self preservation dares claim.
GM, I'm thinking that your Vigi list should be more for DT checks. I'm not sold on first night shootings for vigis, as they can be oh so valuable later on.
##Vote: Bum
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EPT
