EPTI feel like I'm doing a huge omgus but I also feel like I have no other choice.
Bum is not my first choice for my vote. But I really need to know what he is.
##VOTE: Bumatlarge
Sleeper Cell Mafia - Page 26
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
I feel like I'm doing a huge omgus but I also feel like I have no other choice. Bum is not my first choice for my vote. But I really need to know what he is. ##VOTE: Bumatlarge | ||
|
Impervious
Canada4207 Posts
While it is stupid (imo) that bum claimed already, if he is the DT, he'll be a high priority target for the mafia, so they'll take him out at night. I don't see the reasoning for a red claiming as DT. It seems like such a dumb move. It instantly paints a giant target on them when he's still alive the next day. And if the mafia don't eliminate him tonight, then they risk him actually finding a mafia (assuming that Jackal is green). And, of course, if he's green, it could be an interesting play, if you really had a strong read on someone. I don't think it's a good idea to lynch him. Voting for someone other than Jackal, based on some kind of analysis, would be fine if you don't believe bum, but lynching him is really fucking dumb right now. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
| ||
|
Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 30 2011 09:42 Ace wrote: How did you come to the conclusion there is a 50% chance of getting red? Somebody posted that statistic a while ago. People need to stop using statistics is evidence. They can only get us so far. Analytical reasoning > statistical reasoning in a game of mafia, imo. | ||
|
Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
I'd be ok with lynching why/darm right now, if we want to keep bum alive in case he's telling the truth. The only problem, is if he lives tomorrow, we're in the same spot we are today regarding the lynch. The difference would be he'd have another "result", which may or may not be to our benefit, depending on his alignment. At that point, he could be bussing someone, or he could be telling the truth, or he could just say "insufficient" again. It's really easy to fake, and it's hard to figure out if it's true or not. | ||
|
Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
 I'm in full support of lynching Darm, but bum makes things so volatile that lynching him simplifies the situation very nicely. That's the logic behind the lynch, anyways. (I think) If I can get enough people behind it, I'd much rather lynch Darm, but I'm not going to waste my vote if it's a lost cause. | ||
|
Impervious
Canada4207 Posts
On April 30 2011 09:50 VarpuliS wrote: Somebody posted that statistic a while ago. People need to stop using statistics is evidence. They can only get us so far. Analytical reasoning > statistical reasoning in a game of mafia, imo. Agreed, but it shouldn't be discounted so easily either. As for how that is roughly 50%: There are currently 13 players left. Assumption is that there are 3 mafia and 1 GF left. Chance of mafia coming up with "Insufficient Analysis" 3 (number of normal mafia) * 0.25 (chance of then having the result of Insufficient Analysis) * 1/12 (chance of the DT checking any individual) + 1 (GF) * 1.00 (chance of having the result of Insufficient Analysis) * 1/12 = 14.6% (through absolutely random checking). Chances of a townie coming up with "Insufficient Analysis" 8 (number of non-DT townies left) * 0.25 (chance of having the result of Insufficient Analysis) * 1/12 (chance of the DT checking any individual) = 16.7% (also through absolutely random checking). Therefore there is a ~47% chance of Jackal being red, assuming bum is really the DT. So, the real question is whether you believe bum or not. Given the situation, a ~50% chance is pretty damn good. | ||
|
Impervious
Canada4207 Posts
| ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
| ||
|
GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
On April 30 2011 07:07 Ace wrote: bum what many other things? You have nothing. I know you're lying because your claim just. doesn't. make. sense. There is no "townie reaction here". The only reaction is that you said and I'll say this again: 1.) you investigated Jackal 2.) got an inconclusive result In no way can you say Jackal is Scum for sure now. You got an IC result, figured Jackal must be the CL then went from there. That isn't actual Scum hunting is it? You're trying to fit Jackal into what you think happens to be Scummy instead of finding Jackal to be scum. Big difference here. GGQ that part you bolded actually isn't a strong part of his analysis at all. Other players have talked about the CL, tnkted pulled some move earlier that was a "bread crumb", even GM made a list of DT checks and talked about the Intelligence Agent taking a shot Night 1: So in what way does bum decide that jackal stands out more than any of them? You and everyone else need to change your votes. Especially with this little gem right here: It's Day 2. How do you know they are all town? Only way you would know that if is you know who is all Scum. Hello Mr. Cell Leader. Yeah, tnkted has been playing weirdly, but that's not the issue right now. Jackal has been focused on the CL to a strange degree, he's not playing like he usually does, his one attack in this game has been weak and self-undermining. I don't trust him. He's also overreacting to getting voted when I don't think he was ever leading the lynch. | ||
|
GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
On April 30 2011 08:48 Jackal58 wrote: Mafia isn't supposed to be a morality play. So why do I feel scummy voting for Bum? I feel like I'm doing a huge omgus but I also feel like I have no other choice. Bum is not my first choice for my vote. But I really need to know what he is. ##VOTE: Bumatlarge This is such a bad bad vote. Just because you are pointing out that your move is scummy doesn't stop it from being scummy. | ||
|
Impervious
Canada4207 Posts
| ||
|
Impervious
Canada4207 Posts
| ||
|
chaoser
United States5541 Posts
tnkted bumatlarge (6) ace sandroba Varpulis Eiii Mr. Wiggles Jackal58 jackal (3) bum GGQ Impervious Bum currently leads. Darm and Vain need to vote. Day ends in 2 and a half hours. | ||
|
Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Also, he's liable to get modkilled anyways, and if he does, and we lynch bum, and mafia gets another town kill tonight... we're at lylo, if I'm not mistaken. I feel like lynching darm is simply safer. after all, its a 45% chance that he's scum  | ||
|
Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
| ||
|
Impervious
Canada4207 Posts
| ||
|
Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Any takers? | ||
|
darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
| ||
|
Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
| ||
| ||
