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On April 29 2011 14:52 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2011 13:08 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Bum, your logic is bad.
Firstly, you call Jackal the Cell Leader without even considering the possibility that there's a 25% chance that he would show up as "Insufficient" if he were anything else. I didn't take it into consideration, because I believe I found his breadcrumbs, and a decent composition of jackal's general behavior.
Again, he doesn't need to lay public breadcrumbs.
Show nested quote +Alright initially I was just going to give an analysis and link reasons as to why Jackal was Cell Leader, but the evidence is so damning, that I figured it would be pointless to hide my identity as I become an obvious target once Jackal pops. I am an INTELLIGENCE ANALYST. Right away you assume that he is the Cell Leader, and decide to make a bad claim rather than just push an analysis. Because I've based it on the insufficient and the breadcrumbs. He isn't anything else. He's CL.
I still think the "breadcrumbs" are worthless.
Show nested quote +Let me explain why I think it's a bad claim and that you might be lying.
Let's imagine you are a DT, and you checked Jackal, and got an "insufficient for analysis".
You would then decide to build a case against him so that you can try to get him lynched.
If you don't claim:
-You make a case, if it's strong, you get him lynched.
-If he flips red, you might survive the night if scum hit someone else instead cause they just think you're a green who analyzed
-If he flips town, you were wrong and it was RNG. People will be suspicious of you, but you'll most likely survive the night
If you claim:
-You make a case with a claim, Jackal gets lynched
-If he flips red, you die, scum know who you are
-If he flips town, you die, scum know who you are
It does not make sense to claim here. By claiming, you assure scum will hit you 100% rather than having any chance to live by not claiming. You also received an insufficient for analysis, not a Red return, so that even makes a claim weaker, because there's a chance you got the return on a town anyways, it's not a sure thing. I'm sold on Jackal being the CL. I don't really have a doubt in my mind that he couldn't be. I've found everything I was looking for with his posts, a scum who knows who the other scum are, and is trying to clue them in. I claimed because it's easier then pushing town onto your analysis. I know its sounds lazy, but I got a blue role, and im not gonna take the 1% chance scum doesnt hit me and get another check. This way I skimp on really pointing out exactly how scummy jackal is, when I can just add in "Oh aside from the analysis I did, there is a 75% chance he's CL and 25% he aint, not taking analysis into account." Sorry, I'm busy, gonna take the easy road 
There isn't a 75% chance he's CL, it's about 1/5 strictly based on probability. Also, where is he "trying to clue people in"?
Show nested quote +So, I think you're claim can be fake for two reasons.
1. You don't mention the probability of it being wrong, so that makes me think that you just forgot about it. A real DT would keep in mind that there's RNG for everyone, and that doesn't just happen for the GF. By forgetting to even mention that until later when someone else brings it up, it makes me believe that you forgot about it in the first place, i.e. you might not be a DT. If I'm wrong, which I really feel I am not, Scum will not hit me, I will give you a confirmed town or confirmed scum if you lynch me. 7% of that happening? Well that is higher then how I feel on jackal so according to you it will happen. So I'm not taking it into account. I've added too many factors that conclude it is right, and I have a back-up on the less then 1% I am wrong. That's how I feel, so yes I guess I would forget about that.
What are you talking about, scum won't hit you? You just claimed that you're a DT, so now you're saying that if Jackal is green cause of RNG scum will just give you another free check? Also, what are all these percentages?
Show nested quote +2. The claim makes no sense. You say you claimed because you would have died anyways. That only makes sense again, if you think that the ONLY person who brings back "insufficient" is GF and not anyone else. If you were DT, and Jackal flips green, scum wouldn't hit you. If he flipped red, then you're not as likely to live, but they might let you if they're trying to snipe blues or something. Claiming makes it a 100% chance that you would die. Less then 1%. Thats how I feel. Doesn't matter what other people think, it was my assessment to make, and my claim to make. He is not a sleeper agent. He is Cell Leader. If he is sleeper agent, I would suggest town treat it no different then as if he popped town.
This has nothing to do with what other people think, and I don't get why you're bringing it up. It has to do that you have a whole lot of a better chance to live until the next day by not claiming. By claiming, you're signing your own death certificate in a game with no medics and where scum are going to go for obvious targets.
Show nested quote +Now, all your "breadcrumb" things are terrible and a null-tell.
It makes no sense for scum to try to breadcrumb into the thread unless it's to direct other scum and communicate plans. Crumbing in the thread to identify yourself in PM is just stupid. So you're saying that Jackal bread crumbed about driving, and my birthday, instead of just saying, "I'm OPEC, clues and puzzles", "Steelers, profile", "Ilich Ramírez Sánchez, wiki", which would be easily recognizable as being him? Then the thing about my birthday isn't a tell either. It's normal when it's someone's birthday, to say, "Happy Birthday". As well, you missed Vain wishing me one later, so was that him just picking up on the crumb later? You're looking too far into that, unless you think Vain, Ace, and Jackal are all scum breadcrumbing, and tack was just an innocent bystander. CarTrip, is much shorter, where he could add in "hpyBday" Then it allows for more letters, and I think he's successfully shed some light for scum. I'm treating the happy birthday thing as a funny little sidenote. I thought you would just shrug it off, but I'll take note of your concern I connected ace and jackal from other things.
Why does length matter? OPEC is shorter than any of those for example, arguing about that is pointless. What I'm trying to say, is do you think that the Cell Leader would try to put public breadcrumbs in his posts instead of just referring to something in his profile or signature? What's the advantage? If that's what your analysis is based on, then maybe you're the Cell Leader because you wrote "batman" in your hello post and varp called you batman later. See how your examples of breadcrumbs can just be cherry-picked?
Show nested quote +You also say that you don't want to analyze Jackal, because: I don't really feel I need to make a huge in-depth analysis on his behavior, since it will not be strongest point, even if I was 10x the analyzer. To summarize what I make of jackal's posts, I will only to briefly skim them, even if he has a lot. Right here, you say, "Jackal doesn't look like scum from his posting". You're relying on your supposed "DT information", to be the decider for his lynch. However, if you were a DT, you would look at your result and then go over his posts. If he didn't look scummy to you, you would decide that it was RNG. Just claiming, without strong analysis, with the chance that he's town, is just bad play. And where the fuck do I say he isn't scummy? I say the breadcrumbs+the insufficient are plenty to convince me. I don't really need to his behavior to convict him, but it worked out that way in the end once you read his posts. DID YOU READ THE ANALYSIS, I WENT OVER HIS POSTS. I skimmed then and said I got the gist of his Cell Leader posts, because if I read everything he posted on that and made a comment on each I would still be writing the analysis. NOT ME SORRY LOL. And its my supposed DT info and the crumbs! Without the crumbs then you're right its just a 75% guess and a happy birthday. (which it isnt READ IT AGAIN FFFF) Disregarding my analysis because I say my information (and crumbs) are stronger is obnoxiously scummy of you wiggles.
You say your analysis is weak, and use that as an excuse for not pushing any analysis. Your "analysis", as it stands, is "Jackal talks a lot about the cell leader and breadcrumbs". The rest is the "relationships" he has with others IF he were the Cell Leader, and the "breadcrumbs". You're begging the question, you have to show through your analysis why he can be the cell leader, not say he's the cell leader and go from there. To me, the crumbs mean nothing, and I need more convincing than "he talks about cell leader" and a 22% chance if you're telling the truth. That's why I'd like to see analysis, not a claim that doesn't make any sense.
Show nested quote +I think you're smarter than that and would think things through if you were a DT. So, I think you're lying.
You thought wrong sir. Thanks for making me take actual note of you. Would you have still responded the same way if I didn't include you?
Yes I would, because whether you include me or not, your claim makes no sense, and lynching someone off of "breadcrumbs" that just seem to be cherry picked isn't good enough for me.
Someone aside from the magnificent three care to call me a blatant liar?
Also, a tiny little smidge of a note, it's definitely not the end of the world for scum if they get the wrong assumption from a message. Hypothetically, if the HpyBDay was a crumb, and tackster was alive and wiggles/ace thought he was scum for some reason, that most likely will not effect the scheme of things. There are only a handful of situations involving tackser claiming or jackal contradicting himself. Both of which would be hilarious.
If you think I'm scum now, I'd like it if you came out and said it, not talked around me. You still haven't given me ONE good reason why any cell leader would try to write things into his posts so that he could get caught for it rather than just refer to something in his profile. Also, I'm not even sure who you're asking us to lynch?
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I can't fathom the idea of you playing this bad if you are indeed the DT.
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thanks wiggles really putting yourself out there to shove some words out of my mouth.
Jackal
Ace
Wiggles
That's what Im feelin'
Wiggles, he blatantly commentated twice on how he spends time in his card rides thinking about mafia. He came back insufficient. HE SPENT THE WHOLE GAME OBSESSED WITH CL. That is not mere coincidence. He is the cell leader.
Saying Car instead of "steelers profile" leaves enough space for jackal to add 17 other characters in. If jackal only revealed that he was scum, he would then HAVE to publicly coordinate the rest of the scum with happy birthdays until his next message. Clue them all in (I would have done it I think) and then it doesn't matter if you live or die, once scum know who each other are, cell leaders only have to send messages hinting at targets and such.
The entire first day I read 20 pages of posts talking about how to catch breadcrumbs, and now mine are useless, when they are completely feasible.
Then my behavior analysis, which any nin-kum-poop can see jackal's behavior, is pretty much undeniable that jackal talk non-stop about breadcrumbs and cell leaders. Just flat out say that what jackal did does not make him Cell leader so town can mark that down on you.
And yeah, I think he was attempting to communicate with Ace somehow, or Ace was trying to communicate with him.
And i meant "if scum doesnt hit me" blahblahblah free confirmed something. And isn't 25% x 25% around 7%? I may be talking out of my ass with that.
And I become an obvious target. I want jackal lynched now so scum don't get a breather knowing the current CL (yes i made that up now when ggq pointed out it goes to another sleeper) and I kinda want to die. Sorry if that screws over your behavior analysis on me, but I have a busy internet-less weekend. I had ways of remaining active if I had a different role, but I got IA so this makes sense to me. Have no idea why you're making a huge deal over me claiming, unless your scum then your just grasping. That makes a lot more sense.
And please connect me to batman. That makes this beautiful. Because if I get lynched and pop blue, varp is a nice solid lead to townie town.
AND CHERRY PICKING BREADCRUMBS?! LOL WHAT AM I SUPPOSED TO DO? OH ILL SKIP THAT OBVIOUS CRANNY DONT WANT TO CHERRY PICK.
No where do I say my analysis is weak. Blatant word twisting. I said my information+crumbs are stronger and I'll say it again. My analysis is obvious. I'm sorry if it's obvious but jackal made it that way. I can rip to shreds all of his posts relating to his role, but I really dont have time, and Im spending too much time churning out responses to scum.
cherrypicked breadcrumbs food oh its all making sense now!
I didnt think you were scum when i analyzed jackal. I entertained the humorous notion about the birthday. You exploding all over it, and gunning against this analysis that has nothing to do with you like it's your last defense DEFINITELY make you scum in my eyes. I don't think I remember you ever attacking something like this. I like it wiggles, but next time do it as town to throw us for a little loop.
Jackal sent a "car message" wiggles and ace know it, so they know jackal is CL and they need to attack me because they think they can drag town into lylo. If anyone else has questions, I'll try to answer tomorrow.
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Wow, bum. Nowhere did I call you scum yet, I'm just trying to wrap my head around your claim that in my eyes, is bad play. nowhere did I "explode", either. I just don't like that you're trying to insinuate that I'm scum based on the silly notion people saying happy birthday is scum communicating. When I was talking about breadcrumbs, I was talking about ways that scum would direct scum, or let them know their identity. Just looking at the car ride, and saying, "He talked about a car ride! Message was car ride!", isn't very strong in my opinion. It looks like you're looking too far into it to me. What next, the person who also said they have exams is my scum-buddy because they also said they have exams? I'm also not attacking your analysis, because there isn't an analysis there to begin with, I'm arguing against your logic.
You're getting angry and throwing around accusations instead of answering any of my questions or addressing my points.
EVERYONE talked about Cell leader and breadcrumbs on day 1, the only thing I find suspicious is Jackal pushing for whoever to explain his method of crumbing, so what else sets him apart?
WHY would you claim, it doesn't help town, and it doesn't help you, so why? This pisses me off more than anything, because we lose a blue role for sure now if you're telling the truth.
HOW CAN YOU BE SURE, that driving is a breadcrumb? At that point, you can go back in the thread and just construe talking about anything non-game related to be a scum tell, so what makes it particularly telling? just that he mentioned it three times?.
I can't even understand half of what you say when you reply to me, but all I want is just to get to the bottom of things and address questions instead of sheeping and following blue claims without a thought. Your replies don't help put me at ease though, because you just go off on tangents and repeat yourself instead of discuss.
Right now, there's a about 8 people lurking, and the scum among them are just LOVING this, because it gives them cover to not do anything. Day ends in less than 24 hours, and the only people talking are me, you, ace, and san. Jackal made some posts, and why pushed for a lynch at the beginning of the day and then disappeared. Everyone else is invisible.
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Alright, busy day but I'm back. And there's been a lot to come back to!
okay so this is the third time I've tried to type this up, because each time I get halfway through I realize something and restart. HERE WE GO, LAST TRY
Bum's dt claim doesn't really make sense if he's town. Why do it now, especially with such a questionable result as 'no information'? Since he's so sure of who jackal's scumbuddies are, why not wait one more night and confirm that? There isn't even a chance that he could get killed and have all this be for nothing if he's smart enough to type up his case against jackal, post it a few minutes before night ends, and if he survives by the time the day post is up (and his results have gotten back) he could potentially finger the CL AND a red along with it. That seems like ideal play to me.
...so what does claiming this early get him, as blue or red? It's a huge distraction, but reds can't afford to trade one of their own just to keep town distracted for a day. The thing is, bum's DT result didn't actually show that jackal was scum, so if jackal flips green he can easily claim he just tunneled jackal... and it wouldn't even be one for one, because the next day he could say 'look to prove it I found a red last night' and just name someone kind of lurk-y who he doesn't have much of a red read on. Best case it's a green/blue and the trade becomes two for one, with town having wasted two lynches and worst case it's another red and bum gets 'confirmed'.
...anyway, that's how I see the thought processes for this claim. Neither really makes a ton of sense to me, because both are so risky. I'm holding off on voting for now, but this suspicion around bum by no means clears jackal and ace. We need to keep an eye on them, ace and bum especially.
Also tnk, weren't you supposed to claim your super weird role come daytime?
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I realized what happened. As usual bum's reading ability needs to be questioned here. Read the OP bum since you assume Scum are forced to communicate in thread.
On April 29 2011 16:38 bumatlarge wrote:
thanks wiggles really putting yourself out there to shove some words out of my mouth.
Jackal
Ace
Wiggles
That's what Im feelin'
Wiggles, he blatantly commentated twice on how he spends time in his card rides thinking about mafia. He came back insufficient. HE SPENT THE WHOLE GAME OBSESSED WITH CL. That is not mere coincidence. He is the cell leader.
Saying Car instead of "steelers profile" leaves enough space for jackal to add 17 other characters in. If jackal only revealed that he was scum, he would then HAVE to publicly coordinate the rest of the scum with happy birthdays until his next message. Clue them all in (I would have done it I think) and then it doesn't matter if you live or die, once scum know who each other are, cell leaders only have to send messages hinting at targets and such.
The entire first day I read 20 pages of posts talking about how to catch breadcrumbs, and now mine are useless, when they are completely feasible.
Then my behavior analysis, which any nin-kum-poop can see jackal's behavior, is pretty much undeniable that jackal talk non-stop about breadcrumbs and cell leaders. Just flat out say that what jackal did does not make him Cell leader so town can mark that down on you.
And yeah, I think he was attempting to communicate with Ace somehow, or Ace was trying to communicate with him.
And i meant "if scum doesnt hit me" blahblahblah free confirmed something. And isn't 25% x 25% around 7%? I may be talking out of my ass with that.
And I become an obvious target. I want jackal lynched now so scum don't get a breather knowing the current CL (yes i made that up now when ggq pointed out it goes to another sleeper) and I kinda want to die. Sorry if that screws over your behavior analysis on me, but I have a busy internet-less weekend. I had ways of remaining active if I had a different role, but I got IA so this makes sense to me. Have no idea why you're making a huge deal over me claiming, unless your scum then your just grasping. That makes a lot more sense.
And please connect me to batman. That makes this beautiful. Because if I get lynched and pop blue, varp is a nice solid lead to townie town.
AND CHERRY PICKING BREADCRUMBS?! LOL WHAT AM I SUPPOSED TO DO? OH ILL SKIP THAT OBVIOUS CRANNY DONT WANT TO CHERRY PICK.
No where do I say my analysis is weak. Blatant word twisting. I said my information+crumbs are stronger and I'll say it again. My analysis is obvious. I'm sorry if it's obvious but jackal made it that way. I can rip to shreds all of his posts relating to his role, but I really dont have time, and Im spending too much time churning out responses to scum.
cherrypicked breadcrumbs food oh its all making sense now!
I didnt think you were scum when i analyzed jackal. I entertained the humorous notion about the birthday. You exploding all over it, and gunning against this analysis that has nothing to do with you like it's your last defense DEFINITELY make you scum in my eyes. I don't think I remember you ever attacking something like this. I like it wiggles, but next time do it as town to throw us for a little loop.
Jackal sent a "car message" wiggles and ace know it, so they know jackal is CL and they need to attack me because they think they can drag town into lylo. If anyone else has questions, I'll try to answer tomorrow.
Cell Leader
You may send a message consisting of 5 words or 20 characters to any agent at dawn and dusk of each day. Submit it like a normal action. The message can't contain the name of any player. The message is PM'd to both myself and chaoser. We will send it to the player you specify.
So your bread crumbing argument is off. This is why we keep saying you're making no sense. You didn't even read the OP. Ah well, at least we know you're regular Scum and not the Cell Leader.
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Ahhhh shit. Wtf Bum? The sad part of all this is I do believe your DT claim.
If you were pulling some sort of scum shit you would have just claimed I was scum not the insufficient evidence bs. What I don't understand is why you felt like you had to reveal your role with an "insufficient evidence" return and a shit load of smoke and mirrors analysis.
You pretty much guarantee we're both dead. Once again you get zero return on your RPGs. Go Bum.
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On April 29 2011 17:26 Eiii wrote:
Alright, busy day but I'm back. And there's been a lot to come back to!
okay so this is the third time I've tried to type this up, because each time I get halfway through I realize something and restart. HERE WE GO, LAST TRY
Bum's dt claim doesn't really make sense if he's town. Why do it now, especially with such a questionable result as 'no information'? Since he's so sure of who jackal's scumbuddies are, why not wait one more night and confirm that? There isn't even a chance that he could get killed and have all this be for nothing if he's smart enough to type up his case against jackal, post it a few minutes before night ends, and if he survives by the time the day post is up (and his results have gotten back) he could potentially finger the CL AND a red along with it. That seems like ideal play to me.
...so what does claiming this early get him, as blue or red? It's a huge distraction, but reds can't afford to trade one of their own just to keep town distracted for a day. The thing is, bum's DT result didn't actually show that jackal was scum, so if jackal flips green he can easily claim he just tunneled jackal... and it wouldn't even be one for one, because the next day he could say 'look to prove it I found a red last night' and just name someone kind of lurk-y who he doesn't have much of a red read on. Best case it's a green/blue and the trade becomes two for one, with town having wasted two lynches and worst case it's another red and bum gets 'confirmed'.
...anyway, that's how I see the thought processes for this claim. Neither really makes a ton of sense to me, because both are so risky. I'm holding off on voting for now, but this suspicion around bum by no means clears jackal and ace. We need to keep an eye on them, ace and bum especially.
Also tnk, weren't you supposed to claim your super weird role come daytime?
Yeah, I was. I'm going to hold off until this bum/ace situation is solved. You'll see why.
I've been busy with schoolwork lately, sorry yall. I've already pulled out of a couple other games, hopefully I'll have time to keep playing this one!
My thoughts: As far as I can read my gut is actually telling me to trust bum, which is a suprise because I usually make it a point to distrust bum as long as possible because I find his style of writing so persuasive. In this case, however, I think that he's wrong about jackal, but right about Ace. Jackal, while his style of play this game is totally different from his previous games (its an improvement Jackal! you're getting targeted partly because your meta is off!) probably isn't stupid enough to post traffic breadcrumbs in the middle of the thread. That's wifom of course, but I feel good about it. I've gotten a feeling of earnest effort from him all game that I'm willing to indulge in.
Regarding Ace: Ace has absolutely refused to hop on a few things that other people have found scummy. There was my belated roleclaim, the fact that I blatantly told mafia to kill ace (which was an honest mistake, I had no intention of doing that.) Whats interesting is that he didn't die. GM died instead. I'm going to speculate for a minute on how this could have gone down:
Lets say we have 5 mafia and one CL, roughly 1/3 of the total players. 1 scum is dead, which makes it 5 scum overall, 4 of them agents. What way would they vote? Since they can't communicate in the thread, and only one of them knows who the CL is (assuming that one person is told every day/flip), if we assume that that player wasn't Rean (for the sake of arguement, I still think it was), wouldn't they have a somewhat even split around who to kill?
Perhaps the split went like this:
2 - GM
2 - Ace
Since its a tie, the CL gets to choose. Both were extremely high profile targets. Why wouldn't Ace get killed? Theres the possibility that whoever CL is could read GM well, which is a possibility. I think that Ace cast the final vote that killed GM.
This isn't conclusive, of course, its all speculation, but I think it makes sense, and since I don't want to vote for bum at this point, I'm voting Ace.
#vote ace
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Ok, for those of you who are skeptical of bum, what do you think about lynching him to prove it, to satisfy your curiosity?
If he really is the DT, his list and reasoning seems pretty solid, and I haven't seen any better ideas.....
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On April 30 2011 00:53 Impervious wrote:
Ok, for those of you who are skeptical of bum, what do you think about lynching him to prove it, to satisfy your curiosity?
If he really is the DT, his list and reasoning seems pretty solid, and I haven't seen any better ideas.....
I am not in favor of lynching our DT. No matter how obsolete he just managed to make himself.
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On April 29 2011 23:37 tnkted wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2011 17:26 Eiii wrote:
Alright, busy day but I'm back. And there's been a lot to come back to!
okay so this is the third time I've tried to type this up, because each time I get halfway through I realize something and restart. HERE WE GO, LAST TRY
Bum's dt claim doesn't really make sense if he's town. Why do it now, especially with such a questionable result as 'no information'? Since he's so sure of who jackal's scumbuddies are, why not wait one more night and confirm that? There isn't even a chance that he could get killed and have all this be for nothing if he's smart enough to type up his case against jackal, post it a few minutes before night ends, and if he survives by the time the day post is up (and his results have gotten back) he could potentially finger the CL AND a red along with it. That seems like ideal play to me.
...so what does claiming this early get him, as blue or red? It's a huge distraction, but reds can't afford to trade one of their own just to keep town distracted for a day. The thing is, bum's DT result didn't actually show that jackal was scum, so if jackal flips green he can easily claim he just tunneled jackal... and it wouldn't even be one for one, because the next day he could say 'look to prove it I found a red last night' and just name someone kind of lurk-y who he doesn't have much of a red read on. Best case it's a green/blue and the trade becomes two for one, with town having wasted two lynches and worst case it's another red and bum gets 'confirmed'.
...anyway, that's how I see the thought processes for this claim. Neither really makes a ton of sense to me, because both are so risky. I'm holding off on voting for now, but this suspicion around bum by no means clears jackal and ace. We need to keep an eye on them, ace and bum especially.
Also tnk, weren't you supposed to claim your super weird role come daytime? Yeah, I was. I'm going to hold off until this bum/ace situation is solved. You'll see why. I've been busy with schoolwork lately, sorry yall. I've already pulled out of a couple other games, hopefully I'll have time to keep playing this one! My thoughts: As far as I can read my gut is actually telling me to trust bum, which is a suprise because I usually make it a point to distrust bum as long as possible because I find his style of writing so persuasive. In this case, however, I think that he's wrong about jackal, but right about Ace. Jackal, while his style of play this game is totally different from his previous games (its an improvement Jackal! you're getting targeted partly because your meta is off!) probably isn't stupid enough to post traffic breadcrumbs in the middle of the thread. That's wifom of course, but I feel good about it. I've gotten a feeling of earnest effort from him all game that I'm willing to indulge in. Regarding Ace: Ace has absolutely refused to hop on a few things that other people have found scummy. There was my belated roleclaim, the fact that I blatantly told mafia to kill ace (which was an honest mistake, I had no intention of doing that.) Whats interesting is that he didn't die. GM died instead. I'm going to speculate for a minute on how this could have gone down: Lets say we have 5 mafia and one CL, roughly 1/3 of the total players. 1 scum is dead, which makes it 5 scum overall, 4 of them agents. What way would they vote? Since they can't communicate in the thread, and only one of them knows who the CL is (assuming that one person is told every day/flip), if we assume that that player wasn't Rean (for the sake of arguement, I still think it was), wouldn't they have a somewhat even split around who to kill? Perhaps the split went like this: 2 - GM 2 - Ace Since its a tie, the CL gets to choose. Both were extremely high profile targets. Why wouldn't Ace get killed? Theres the possibility that whoever CL is could read GM well, which is a possibility. I think that Ace cast the final vote that killed GM. This isn't conclusive, of course, its all speculation, but I think it makes sense, and since I don't want to vote for bum at this point, I'm voting Ace. #vote ace
what the hell is this? What role claim? Where?
Also where do you guys go off with all these hypothetical situations and made up scenarios to try and paint people scum.
So bum claims DT, says Jackal is Scum with insufficient evidence and you're voting for ME?
that doesn't even make sense. You're trying to off me with no evidence here.
Town look very carefully at the voting thread and read this post. Out of no where tnkted pops up and votes for me with terrible reasoning and completely ignores the bum/jackal situation.
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On April 30 2011 02:27 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2011 00:53 Impervious wrote:
Ok, for those of you who are skeptical of bum, what do you think about lynching him to prove it, to satisfy your curiosity?
If he really is the DT, his list and reasoning seems pretty solid, and I haven't seen any better ideas..... I am not in favor of lynching our DT. No matter how obsolete he just managed to make himself.
why do you believe he's a DT so easily? There is no way you can 100% believe him so fast.
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Because I'm hypothetically 100% correct! (and jackal is CL)
Though I am confused about tnkted, what the balls dude? Even if we both heavily suspect Ace, jackal or myself needs to be lynched so we can sort this out ASAP. I really don't see how you can make Ace out to be scum but thinking jackal is town at the same time.
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bum the part of your post with bread crumbing is wrong though. You didn't know CL can communicate with Agents privately?
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On April 30 2011 00:53 Impervious wrote:
Ok, for those of you who are skeptical of bum, what do you think about lynching him to prove it, to satisfy your curiosity?
If he really is the DT, his list and reasoning seems pretty solid, and I haven't seen any better ideas.....
I was thinking about if we should lynch either Jackal or Bum, but realized, that whichever we choose, we get NO information about the other's alignment that we don't have already. This is why, I find his claim so blatantly bad, coming from only one result, and from an "insufficient".
-If Jackal flips green, then Bum could or could not be the detective still.
-If Jackal flips red, then Bum could be or not be the detective still
-If Jackal flips Cell Leader, this makes Bum look more town, but still doesn't say whether he's a DT or not, because this result isn't based off a check, it's based off suspicion.
-Bum flips Blue, then Jackal still could be or not be town, because the check was inconclusive
-Bum flips red, Jackal looks more town, still WIFOM for it being a bus
The only situation that lets us know the alignment of the surviving player better is IF Jackal flips cell leader, because then we only need to figure out the probability of it being a bus.
So, we can't lynch for information. We have to lynch who we think is scummiest, because the flip won't tell us much about the alignment of the other one.
What this is like, is if it were a normal game and 4 greens remained with one GF who shows up green to checks. So you check a player and he shows up green, and then you claim DT and say that the green check means that he's GF and you build an analysis from the starting point that he's GF. It just isn't convincing, and doesn't make sense.
In this game, at least on a red return, we could check if he's lying or not, because there's no framer that we know about. On multiple returns, say if he claimed day 3, we would be able to cross-check the players. All he'd have to do, is 1 minute before the day post, say I'm DT, I checked these people, and give the alignment of the one you know, in case one or both of them was killed by scum that night. After two checks, he should at least have one full return, most likely.
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On April 30 2011 04:33 bumatlarge wrote:
Because I'm hypothetically 100% correct! (and jackal is CL)
Though I am confused about tnkted, what the balls dude? Even if we both heavily suspect Ace, jackal or myself needs to be lynched so we can sort this out ASAP. I really don't see how you can make Ace out to be scum but thinking jackal is town at the same time.
Lynching you or Jackal sorts out nothing, really. Also, can you answer my questions?
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yoyoyo day ends in 8 and a half hours, get your votes in
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@Wiggles: Yea that is another problem with his claim as mentioned before - this isn't a Scum check it's a null check. Nothing to go off of here.
I still think he misread the OP if he's really a Detective. The bread crumb stuff just makes no sense.
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On April 30 2011 04:39 chaoser wrote:
yoyoyo day ends in 8 and a half hours, get your votes in
can you update the thread so we see the count before the lynch?
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EPT
