Sleeper Cell Mafia - Page 23

On April 29 2011 11:13 Ace wrote:
bum that is some of the dumbest logic I've ever seen. You are REALLY trying to warp the fabric of reality there. Either way I'm calling bs on your claim:

When the day started and why claimed I was scum you sided with him and voted for me as a lynch candidate. Not once did you mention anything about Jackal.

When I refuted his post against me all of a sudden you come out with a claim that Jackal is scum - even though your investigation turns up insufficient. Like I said before this would be well and good because you have to take a chance but the fact that you voted for me when the day started kind of kills this proof.

If you knew Jackal was scum why would you vote for me?

On April 29 2011 11:31 Impervious wrote:
Statistically, it's a far better choice to lynch anyone who got "insufficient analysis" than to try to check them again.

I say we go for it. Right now. Maybe get Ace tomorrow?

Although, bum, I don't like how you're already revealing yourself..... I don't think you were in any danger yet, so it seems unnecessary at this point.

On April 29 2011 11:31 Impervious wrote:
Statistically, it's a far better choice to lynch anyone who got "insufficient analysis" than to try to check them again.

I say we go for it. Right now. Maybe get Ace tomorrow?

Although, bum, I don't like how you're already revealing yourself..... I don't think you were in any danger yet, so it seems unnecessary at this point.

On April 29 2011 12:33 GGQ wrote:
Bum's claim feels off to me, partly because i was already suspecting Zorkmid and voted for him yesterday. But looking at it logically, I don't see bum as scum claiming to trade himself one for one with a townie here, especially in this game where he can't even be sure jackal is town unless bum is the CL. Most likely the claim is true, but it still feels really risky to me to claim dt with no protects and not even a confirmed check. I'm working under the assumption that the claim is true.

The analysis on jackal seems solid enough, and jackal hasn't been playing like his usual town style. It could be his attempt to form a more rational and less tunneling style as he claims, or he could be mafia. He keeps mentioning that mafia are likely to the ones with few posts, while he keeps posting without saying much of relevance. His one analysis of a player is full of self-doubt and not followed strongly at all, which isn't like jackal.

On April 29 2011 11:35 bumatlarge wrote:
Oh wait hahaha, Ace I already caught you man.

Ace sees bum claim blue, already suspicious of both bum and jackal, he makes the logical assumption that it would be best to lynch jackal first, since lylo is not here, nor will it be until a day after both jackal and bum are dead. If jackal is CL, yay go town. If bum is lying, lynch him the day after.

Ace sees bum claim blue, knows jackal is CL, oh fuck bum needs to die before jackal so we can leave town while buying mafia a free hit from lynching bum and giving our CL another day.

Now it would be one thing if you considered both options as green, and leaned towards lynching me, as jackal as CL would give you a bad image, but it would be a decent trade.




You instantly -let me repeat that- INSTANTLY assume I am lying. There is no consideration there. I know you as town would entertain the notion that I am blue for a bit, even if you made sure that your opinion of me lying was made known in your first post. But you know jackal is CL, so that is not your thought process. Have some other scum post now, I'm on a roll.

On April 29 2011 01:53 bumatlarge wrote:
Why is right here. I still have no idea the usefulness to town with the lists. Though, when do messages get sent? Rean was modkilled at the first lynch, which I thought hapens before any messages. Either Ace or Jackal is standing out for me, hopefully I can churn out something nasty on them.

On April 29 2011 03:07 bumatlarge wrote:
Please quote an explanation of the list thing because my read-through provided me with nothing. With a valid reason to it, I have no reason to vote you.

Alright initially I was just going to give an analysis and link reasons as to why Jackal was Cell Leader, but the evidence is so damning, that I figured it would be pointless to hide my identity as I become an obvious target once Jackal pops. I am an INTELLIGENCE ANALYST.

I don't really feel I need to make a huge in-depth analysis on his behavior, since it will not be strongest point, even if I was 10x the analyzer. To summarize what I make of jackal's posts, I will only to briefly skim them, even if he has a lot.

On April 29 2011 13:35 GGQ wrote:
Also, something I forgot to mention before. You seem to think that lynching the cell leader will remove the scum's ability to communicate, but scum gets a new cell leader chosen, so... yeah.

On April 29 2011 13:08 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Bum, your logic is bad.

Firstly, you call Jackal the Cell Leader without even considering the possibility that there's a 25% chance that he would show up as "Insufficient" if he were anything else.

Right away you assume that he is the Cell Leader, and decide to make a bad claim rather than just push an analysis.

Let me explain why I think it's a bad claim and that you might be lying.

Let's imagine you are a DT, and you checked Jackal, and got an "insufficient for analysis".

You would then decide to build a case against him so that you can try to get him lynched.

If you don't claim:

-You make a case, if it's strong, you get him lynched.
-If he flips red, you might survive the night if scum hit someone else instead cause they just think you're a green who analyzed
-If he flips town, you were wrong and it was RNG. People will be suspicious of you, but you'll most likely survive the night

If you claim:

-You make a case with a claim, Jackal gets lynched
-If he flips red, you die, scum know who you are
-If he flips town, you die, scum know who you are

It does not make sense to claim here. By claiming, you assure scum will hit you 100% rather than having any chance to live by not claiming. You also received an insufficient for analysis, not a Red return, so that even makes a claim weaker, because there's a chance you got the return on a town anyways, it's not a sure thing.

So, I think you're claim can be fake for two reasons.

1. You don't mention the probability of it being wrong, so that makes me think that you just forgot about it. A real DT would keep in mind that there's RNG for everyone, and that doesn't just happen for the GF. By forgetting to even mention that until later when someone else brings it up, it makes me believe that you forgot about it in the first place, i.e. you might not be a DT.

2. The claim makes no sense. You say you claimed because you would have died anyways. That only makes sense again, if you think that the ONLY person who brings back "insufficient" is GF and not anyone else. If you were DT, and Jackal flips green, scum wouldn't hit you. If he flipped red, then you're not as likely to live, but they might let you if they're trying to snipe blues or something. Claiming makes it a 100% chance that you would die.

Now, all your "breadcrumb" things are terrible and a null-tell.

It makes no sense for scum to try to breadcrumb into the thread unless it's to direct other scum and communicate plans. Crumbing in the thread to identify yourself in PM is just stupid. So you're saying that Jackal bread crumbed about driving, and my birthday, instead of just saying, "I'm OPEC, clues and puzzles", "Steelers, profile", "Ilich Ramírez Sánchez, wiki", which would be easily recognizable as being him? Then the thing about my birthday isn't a tell either. It's normal when it's someone's birthday, to say, "Happy Birthday". As well, you missed Vain wishing me one later, so was that him just picking up on the crumb later? You're looking too far into that, unless you think Vain, Ace, and Jackal are all scum breadcrumbing, and tack was just an innocent bystander.

You also say that you don't want to analyze Jackal, because:



Right here, you say, "Jackal doesn't look like scum from his posting". You're relying on your supposed "DT information", to be the decider for his lynch. However, if you were a DT, you would look at your result and then go over his posts. If he didn't look scummy to you, you would decide that it was RNG. Just claiming, without strong analysis, with the chance that he's town, is just bad play.

I think you're smarter than that and would think things through if you were a DT. So, I think you're lying.

On April 29 2011 13:41 Ace wrote:
If he's lying about being a DT the real DT might claim or outright oppose him. Once he's lynched his team would know who's the actual DT via posts in the thread and shoot him. With the "Vigi" dead and the "DT" dead the 2 listed Town power roles would be dead and we'd virtually be plain vanilla townies vs Scum with no other leads.

Realize he's not trading himself. Remember his analysis wasn't that Jackal is scum - it's that he got no information from the check. This way if Jackal flips town he can always say well it was a mistake.

bum isn't trading himself 1 for 1 here - he's setting up a position that has an out in case Jackal flips town or he gets lynched. He's made up a bunch of hypothetical links here. If he didn't start the day off attacking me I'd believe him.

If you believe his claim is legit then answer this for me: Why would he accuse me, then Jackal? If he is really the detective wouldn't he just out Jackal instead of waiting half the day to start?

On April 29 2011 14:09 bumatlarge wrote:
I thought I could get away with not claiming today. I had reason to believe through my gut that you are an agent with jackal as cell leader. Why had the same feeling as well. Having you get lynched means I didn't have to waste a check, means jackal would either be certain CL or less likely CL and means I had another check on other people I could have done analysis on. I was hoping why would build a good case on you, take the hit as green, hopefully, and I could get in another check. I was planning on claiming if the lynch wasn't going on jackal or ace. It wasn't til after my analysis/claim that I saw you were shifting it on to me.



Fuck.

Still, lynching me doesn't matter. That's an alternative. Ace is just making either another one of his failed assessments, just like pyr in penalty, or he's scum trying to make this seem like one of his failed assessments. Jackal popping now or tomorrow would let me know which. If I don't get lynched today I can get another check off if scum doesn't kill me, which I don't see why they wouldn't.

It's up to the rest of the town, I've done my bit. I'll respond to wiggles in a moment.

On April 16 2011 19:31 sandroba wrote:
Well, I particularly think zorkmid is town because of the following:
Zorkmid analised me while I was posting analisys of scholeosis so if both zorkmid and scholeosis were mafia scholeosis wouldn't try to make him a supect. It only makes sense to me if zorkmid and scholeosis are both town or scholeosis is mafia and zorkmid is town. I'm going to follow my gut instinc that they are both town for now.If zorkmid is mafia and scholeosis is town zorkmid would know that and wouldn't mind lynching him so there was no need to pressure me.
There is no way they are both mafia as they wouldn't try to buss each other so early in the game. So I'm leaning towards zorkmid being town and I don't know for sure about scholeosis.
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