EPTTL Mafia XXXVII - Page 47
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
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Beneather
Canada451 Posts
On February 27 2011 04:32 LSB wrote: How to use the list Firstly, the list should sort of establish a minimum threshold for a lynch. Basically if we are going to lynch a priority 1 person, the analysis must be far better than a priority 3 person, because if we're wrong, that would be far worse for the town. Secondly, we have to keep a watch of Priority 2 people. These people will start dropping like flies at night. At the same time there probably is 2-3 mafia in the list. This list may prove useful in the latter stages of the game, where there are lots of dead people. If Beneather and Barundar are the only ones left in Priority 2, and everyone else is a dead townie their, we can be 90% sure they are mafia. So this will be the Priority 2 watchlist. It won't be useful now, but day 4/5 it will be very useful as a place to start looking for scum Barundar CubEdIn GMarshal Beneather seRapH chaoser LunarDestiny deconduo why "But LSB", you ask, "does this work?" Yes! Look at Pokemafia. Infun is a priority 1 player. It was interesting how he didn't die. Well, that was because he was mafia. In addition, by publishing this list, mafia will probably be more warey of killing people who are priority two. It also gives an incentive for newer players to post lots, so they will get into priority two. If people have any suggestions for changes to the list, just post/pm me. I like the list it's a great idea it'd be much easier to keep people checked upon and who we should lynch so we don't have to start with nothing we have a general idea. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
Anyway, I think annul is probably the better catches for town to get early. I think town would be better served in pressuring the more reserved since that roster seems fairly slim in this game. I like icemac as a lynch target, and others like him that don't quite cut the bill. They are much easier to tell apart then good townie players that keep their mouths in check but speak when it is right, such as ohn. LSB is silly. | ||
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RLTY
United States965 Posts
On February 27 2011 10:29 bumatlarge wrote: Well I read into the whole annul thing, and it doesn't seem to be an organized bus. Especially with that little squirming performance, but then dropping it quickly in a manner I'd expect from him as scum. I didn't find much to point out on who was leading the accusations, but it does give me a nice ladelful of confidence for the town. Deconduo is not scum I feel, and mostly everyone behind it is likely not. GMarshal is a bit tricky because he seems a little too apologetic, but I've only played with him as town, and he would tend to get apologetic when he isn't inquisitive. Maybe he's just more confident? Anyway, I think annul is probably the better catches for town to get early. I think town would be better served in pressuring the more reserved since that roster seems fairly slim in this game. I like icemac as a lynch target, and others like him that don't quite cut the bill. They are much easier to tell apart then good townie players that keep their mouths in check but speak when it is right, such as ohn. LSB is silly. Oh boy, if ohn is mafia and i'm town, i'm going to quote the hell out of this afterwards. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On February 27 2011 10:57 icemac wrote: Oh boy, if ohn is mafia and i'm town, i'm going to quote the hell out of this afterwards. For us to know if you're town, don't you have to be dead? how you going to quote it if you dead? | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
##Vote: MaxwellE He has yet to post anything at all, I think I made my dislike of inactivity abundantly clear earlier, so here have a vote, now post something of value! | ||
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OriginalName
Canada1140 Posts
We need to start really scrutinizing things or we get nothing done todaaaaay. Would be a shame to not follow up on day 1 well. | ||
JBright
Vancouver14381 Posts
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
##vote: Astroorion do something yo. | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
So the first real development is Coag posting a vote against cube, which is an ok move as we need to pressure the more inactive players, jackal does the same a little bit later, because it bears repeating here is Jackal's handy list of players with few posts + Show Spoiler + he following need to step up their game: Gofarman - 8 posts astroorion - 3 posts JBright - 4 posts ICanFlyLow - 2 posts ohN - 3 posts why - 6 posts CubEdIn - 6 posts LastArgument - 7 posts Fewer that 10 posts this far in is inexcusable. note that IcanFlyLow was replaced then I post with a little bit of thought as to what the kills mean for us, and repeate my NO CLAIM message, which chaoser and LSB repeat in the following posts, still at this point nothing exciting has happened and then we get the first real interesting post Jackal after saying not to claim goes ahead and points a FoS at gryffindor, he dosen't provide any backing for me to comment on, so I hope he takes the time to make a post with some actual analysis other than "he claimed vet" which is actually a scummy move, but not enough on its own to make a judgment one way or the other. Grryfindor then does an OMGUS vote against jackal using as his defense "I voted for annul" which is at best a flimsy defense, but then again the attack was flimsy too. My only concern is that gryffindor dosn't point this out an demand an explanation (the rational choice to defend himself) but rather resorts to an OMGUS, which is a poor defense most times. Coag then points out that gryffindor is emphasizing the fact that he voted for scum way too much and that that may be a scum tell, I am inclined to agree with coagulation on that one, in fact I would really like it if jackal fleshed out his attack against gryffindor to see what kind of defense gryffindor might try to put up. Gryffindor then goes ahead and defends himself, since I want to really analyze his defense I'm going to quote his post and go point by point + Show Spoiler + I'm going to have to start linking my games here as meta... I haven't ever bussed someone on teamliquid; it isn't how mafia is played here. If you expect people to be bussing, you are playing very poorly as town. WI'm going to have to start linking my games here as meta... I haven't ever bussed someone on teamliquid; it isn't how mafia is played here. If you expect people to be bussing, you are playing very poorly as town. Would I really go out of my way to push the lynch of my mafia buddy? Would said mafia buddy THEN counterpush me? Who have I had interactions with that would look like my scumbuddies? ok so here you say bussing is not how mafia is played here, which is blatantly wrong, in minimafia V, node jackal and I were on the same scum team and we bussed jackal day 1, with Node leading the analysis against him. There are other examples like the game (I don't rember the #) where LSB ran for mayor with a scummy plan and Dr.H decided to bus him, LSB survived that day by persuading RoL that he was town in PM's, but still bussing is a technique that is used on TL so that use of meta is downright wrong. Also everything besides that last question is WIFOM , as if you thought it was likely annul was going to be lynched with LSB pushing him it would be a great idea for you to get on the wagon early. As to who would you have had interactions with? annul actualy seemed to agree with most of what you said, and from a town perspective our argument about the plan may have been a good way to confirm us as town if we are both mafia. Icemac also seemed to be on your side aggressively pushing against my plan without any sold reason IF I am lynched, this is a very laughable town oh ok, you clearly prove your townness with that Annul had associative tells with both GMarshal and Icemac, both of whom we should pursue lynches on, but you all are so hurt that someone is a better player than you, you can't get over the fact that OMGUS/bussing is just senselessly being thrown at me when both aren't relevant to this particular scenario. The OMGUS relatedness isn't relevant because some OMGUS is very-town, especially when the goal of it is to point out that I'm part of the reason why Annul got lynched. ok, if you were really town your OMGUS would have looked something like "wtf voting against me with no reason jackal?" also what associative tells did i have with annul? that he pushed to lynch chaoser after FoSing me? and what I have no idea what associative tell you want to use to associate Icemac and me, still I appreciate the effort to at least do some scumhunting. and how are the terms OMGUS and bussing not relevant, they clearly are. Apart from GMarshal or IceMac, Seraph would also be a good lynch from my perspective, due to the recent post he made sounding like goading/fake-sincerity regarding the medic/cop snipe, and considering his excuse for lurking in the same post... well, it just reads forced and overly defensive. ok, I like that you are at least thinking, Seraph however I have a town read on, due to the fact that he has been at least moderately active in PM land, still I wouldn't mind getting more from him GMarshal looks like Annul's buddy to me, because Annul gave him a casual FoS in a post that he failed to try make look real, followed by voting someone else. It was way past where the RVS should end, and it was a lackluster post saying "Well, i'd lynch gmarshal or ___". He listed GMarshal first, talked about him like he was suspicious, then failed to vote him, voting someone else. ok, a decent point, wrong unfortunately, but a decent point, this at least seems like active scumhunting so kudos for that, but I think you are reading far too much into annul's aggressiveness, as IIRC he later voted for me (I dont really remember though) Now, I see I have a few votes on me now, so unvote I'm not convinced, you uncomfortable in the heat gryffindor? If you're unfamiliar with me, go read Orgah mafia. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=186653 I am a Serial Killer in this game, and obviously scum. I say obviously, because my play there as scum is contrasted with how I am playing in this game. In that game, I was generally unhelpful, lurking, and inactive. This game, I am very active, and dedicated to the town teching up alow me to point out that changing your style is not that hard, compare my current active planning to my rather more crappy posting style in XXXVI. usually quoting other games and saying "see im nothing like this" is a scum tell, as changing ones style is not that great of a challenge thanks guys, love you all next decon posts he calls out gryffindor on a couple of the things I mentioned + on lying, which is a good call also in reply to "GMarshal, I feel you gotta step up. It looks like you tried to save annul near the end." I have no real defense, I did try to save annul as I thought he was town and it was LSB going for a grudge lynch, but let me say that being wrong about someone does not make me scum. chaoser then says he likes ohN's posts although there are only 3, which is dissapointing, still a contribution by chaoser, not much to say on it barundar then casts a FoS on LSB, I think LSB is playing pro-town and knowing LSB if he is scum he will continue to be active and slip up eventually, so I wouldn't wast a vote on him yet, although keep your eyes on him and watch out for scummy plans. LSB then does a pretty in depth analysis of barundar, however I think LSB is wrong, although he says its not OMGUS, I get the feeling that it really is, barundar defending annul does not make him scum, and bar was convinced jackal was scum before the wagon started (we discussed it in PM) he just did not want to leave an analysis early to be buried in the discussion between Gryffindor and I, while he was away. So I think LSB's point 1 is just outright wrong. Point 2 is interesting but I would not read too much into contradictions although I feel they aren't as contradictory as LSB thinks they are. Barundar promises a case against LSB, which I am anxious to see and analyze. More back and forth between LSB ensues, I'm going to wait on Barundar's analysis of LSB before really discussing it why then agrees with LSB to pressure Barundar which is ok, and then does something really good, he calls an inactive out, specifically he pegs Beneather, gj why although I still want to see you post more as you still feel lurkerish to me LSB then makes his list post, which I fully endorse, its a great idea and I give LSB +1 karma point for it, makes him seem like town in my eyes, some debate back and forth about it but we all agree it seems like a good idea, chaoser points out possible scummyness with LSB taking a leadership position, and questioning leaders is important for outing scum so chaoser seems more townie in my eyes for it just my general responses to things, feel free to question me/debate anything I say in here, as the point of this is to get some discussion going | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
##unvote ##vote Astroorion (Also I didn't realize I wrote that much for my post...) | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On February 27 2011 12:17 GMarshal wrote: Also while I'm bored (read, should be doing work) I'm going to go ahead and post my thoughts on all the accusations and FoS that have been thrown around since the day began almost 24 hours ago. So the first real development is Coag posting a vote against cube, which is an ok move as we need to pressure the more inactive players, jackal does the same a little bit later, because it bears repeating here is Jackal's handy list of players with few posts + Show Spoiler + he following need to step up their game: Gofarman - 8 posts astroorion - 3 posts JBright - 4 posts ICanFlyLow - 2 posts ohN - 3 posts why - 6 posts CubEdIn - 6 posts LastArgument - 7 posts Fewer that 10 posts this far in is inexcusable. note that IcanFlyLow was replaced then I post with a little bit of thought as to what the kills mean for us, and repeate my NO CLAIM message, which chaoser and LSB repeat in the following posts, still at this point nothing exciting has happened and then we get the first real interesting post Jackal after saying not to claim goes ahead and points a FoS at gryffindor, he dosen't provide any backing for me to comment on, so I hope he takes the time to make a post with some actual analysis other than "he claimed vet" which is actually a scummy move, but not enough on its own to make a judgment one way or the other. Grryfindor then does an OMGUS vote against jackal using as his defense "I voted for annul" which is at best a flimsy defense, but then again the attack was flimsy too. My only concern is that gryffindor dosn't point this out an demand an explanation (the rational choice to defend himself) but rather resorts to an OMGUS, which is a poor defense most times. Coag then points out that gryffindor is emphasizing the fact that he voted for scum way too much and that that may be a scum tell, I am inclined to agree with coagulation on that one, in fact I would really like it if jackal fleshed out his attack against gryffindor to see what kind of defense gryffindor might try to put up. Gryffindor then goes ahead and defends himself, since I want to really analyze his defense I'm going to quote his post and go point by point + Show Spoiler + I'm going to have to start linking my games here as meta... I haven't ever bussed someone on teamliquid; it isn't how mafia is played here. If you expect people to be bussing, you are playing very poorly as town. WI'm going to have to start linking my games here as meta... I haven't ever bussed someone on teamliquid; it isn't how mafia is played here. If you expect people to be bussing, you are playing very poorly as town. Would I really go out of my way to push the lynch of my mafia buddy? Would said mafia buddy THEN counterpush me? Who have I had interactions with that would look like my scumbuddies? ok so here you say bussing is not how mafia is played here, which is blatantly wrong, in minimafia V, node jackal and I were on the same scum team and we bussed jackal day 1, with Node leading the analysis against him. There are other examples like the game (I don't rember the #) where LSB ran for mayor with a scummy plan and Dr.H decided to bus him, LSB survived that day by persuading RoL that he was town in PM's, but still bussing is a technique that is used on TL so that use of meta is downright wrong. Also everything besides that last question is WIFOM , as if you thought it was likely annul was going to be lynched with LSB pushing him it would be a great idea for you to get on the wagon early. As to who would you have had interactions with? annul actualy seemed to agree with most of what you said, and from a town perspective our argument about the plan may have been a good way to confirm us as town if we are both mafia. Icemac also seemed to be on your side aggressively pushing against my plan without any sold reason IF I am lynched, this is a very laughable town oh ok, you clearly prove your townness with that Annul had associative tells with both GMarshal and Icemac, both of whom we should pursue lynches on, but you all are so hurt that someone is a better player than you, you can't get over the fact that OMGUS/bussing is just senselessly being thrown at me when both aren't relevant to this particular scenario. The OMGUS relatedness isn't relevant because some OMGUS is very-town, especially when the goal of it is to point out that I'm part of the reason why Annul got lynched. ok, if you were really town your OMGUS would have looked something like "wtf voting against me with no reason jackal?" also what associative tells did i have with annul? that he pushed to lynch chaoser after FoSing me? and what I have no idea what associative tell you want to use to associate Icemac and me, still I appreciate the effort to at least do some scumhunting. and how are the terms OMGUS and bussing not relevant, they clearly are. Apart from GMarshal or IceMac, Seraph would also be a good lynch from my perspective, due to the recent post he made sounding like goading/fake-sincerity regarding the medic/cop snipe, and considering his excuse for lurking in the same post... well, it just reads forced and overly defensive. ok, I like that you are at least thinking, Seraph however I have a town read on, due to the fact that he has been at least moderately active in PM land, still I wouldn't mind getting more from him GMarshal looks like Annul's buddy to me, because Annul gave him a casual FoS in a post that he failed to try make look real, followed by voting someone else. It was way past where the RVS should end, and it was a lackluster post saying "Well, i'd lynch gmarshal or ___". He listed GMarshal first, talked about him like he was suspicious, then failed to vote him, voting someone else. ok, a decent point, wrong unfortunately, but a decent point, this at least seems like active scumhunting so kudos for that, but I think you are reading far too much into annul's aggressiveness, as IIRC he later voted for me (I dont really remember though) Now, I see I have a few votes on me now, so unvote I'm not convinced, you uncomfortable in the heat gryffindor? If you're unfamiliar with me, go read Orgah mafia. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=186653 I am a Serial Killer in this game, and obviously scum. I say obviously, because my play there as scum is contrasted with how I am playing in this game. In that game, I was generally unhelpful, lurking, and inactive. This game, I am very active, and dedicated to the town teching up alow me to point out that changing your style is not that hard, compare my current active planning to my rather more crappy posting style in XXXVI. usually quoting other games and saying "see im nothing like this" is a scum tell, as changing ones style is not that great of a challenge thanks guys, love you all next decon posts he calls out gryffindor on a couple of the things I mentioned + on lying, which is a good call also in reply to "GMarshal, I feel you gotta step up. It looks like you tried to save annul near the end." I have no real defense, I did try to save annul as I thought he was town and it was LSB going for a grudge lynch, but let me say that being wrong about someone does not make me scum. chaoser then says he likes ohN's posts although there are only 3, which is dissapointing, still a contribution by chaoser, not much to say on it barundar then casts a FoS on LSB, I think LSB is playing pro-town and knowing LSB if he is scum he will continue to be active and slip up eventually, so I wouldn't wast a vote on him yet, although keep your eyes on him and watch out for scummy plans. LSB then does a pretty in depth analysis of barundar, however I think LSB is wrong, although he says its not OMGUS, I get the feeling that it really is, barundar defending annul does not make him scum, and bar was convinced jackal was scum before the wagon started (we discussed it in PM) he just did not want to leave an analysis early to be buried in the discussion between Gryffindor and I, while he was away. So I think LSB's point 1 is just outright wrong. Point 2 is interesting but I would not read too much into contradictions although I feel they aren't as contradictory as LSB thinks they are. Barundar promises a case against LSB, which I am anxious to see and analyze. More back and forth between LSB ensues, I'm going to wait on Barundar's analysis of LSB before really discussing it why then agrees with LSB to pressure Barundar which is ok, and then does something really good, he calls an inactive out, specifically he pegs Beneather, gj why although I still want to see you post more as you still feel lurkerish to me LSB then makes his list post, which I fully endorse, its a great idea and I give LSB +1 karma point for it, makes him seem like town in my eyes, some debate back and forth about it but we all agree it seems like a good idea, chaoser points out possible scummyness with LSB taking a leadership position, and questioning leaders is important for outing scum so chaoser seems more townie in my eyes for it just my general responses to things, feel free to question me/debate anything I say in here, as the point of this is to get some discussion going C'mon man. You've been reading every page of this game. What more do you want me to say about Gryf? He's nuts. | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
e.g. 1.) proposed and pushed a terrible plan 2.) argued against a good plan 3.) lied 4.) set my house on fire even if we all know what they are it gives him room to respond and makes your case look better | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
On February 27 2011 10:57 icemac wrote: Oh boy, if ohn is mafia and i'm town, i'm going to quote the hell out of this afterwards. Anybody see the scum slip? "if im town" .. | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
So mafia are targeting experienced players like they always do. People are talking about annul's lynch and there is a bus on annul. First of all, I don't think mafia would sacrifice one of their member to make others more safe. So those who voted annul early or greatly accused him aren't likely to be mafia. Those who jump onto the bandwagon or voted late without giving good reasons should be looked at. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Part 1: Was annul a bus? From http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Bus bus on mafiascum: How to Spot it Suspicion commonly arises when someone is suddenly lynched for what seem like minor or spurious reasons, and yet flips scum, because it may be indicative that one of the major proponents of their lynch is actually one of their scum partners. The indicators in my words: 1) The bussee is already under town suspecion 2) The lynch faces little resistance 3) The busser uses the lynch for town credit My arguments as to why annul was a bus: 1) First of all annul was already under what I believe to be town suspicion before LSB entered the scene. Deconduo had cast his vote on annul at least to pressure him, OriginalName had asked if we should start voting him, GMarshal had been analysing his post and found no contribution, Mr.Wiggles found his playstyle in mafia xxxvi to be indicative of a better player, that wasn’t showing in this game, and why argued that LSB was suspicious. All of these people argued for annul being suspicious, but they weren’t sure. A number of them tried to scumhunt annul, asking him to explain why he was acting up, trying to gather more evidence. That’s standard pro town play. LSB wasn't as concerned with if annul was actually just a stupid townie, but more with getting him lynched. He didn't need convincing. I'll go more into detail with that in part 2. 2) A large amount of the votes on annul was for other reasons than him being red: On February 25 2011 05:54 kitaman27 wrote: Currently the votes on annul include GMarshal, who thinks he is town, Gofarman, who classified annul as an inactive, astroorion who is a complete lurker, and LSB who has had problems with annul is past games. Looking solid. Annul might have acted suspicious, but he was by no means guaranteed to get lynched that day. All he had to do to avoid getting lynched was to start giving better reasoning, and take an interest in the other lynch targets. Yet he chooses not to: On February 25 2011 10:04 annul wrote: i'm here, F5ing occasionally, playing L4D2. i can't really say anything since it will just be 'OMFG ANNUL IS SO AGGRESSIVE' if i do anything more, so i'll just stay AFK until we see the final vote. It got to the point where he had to get asked to at least try in the thread: On February 25 2011 10:25 LunarDestiny wrote: Annul, if you don't do anything people will not switch vote. This play style of yours is getting you lynched. While I still believe your aggressiveness is lower compared to other games, what makes you an easy lynch is that you don't reply with logical responses. I hope that is not what mafia is going for. Also, town players roleclaim regardless when they are getting lynched. That "you'll know soon after" is not general town play. Can you at least tell us what you observed? After this post annul does a few longer posts. Let me repeat this: He gets asked in the thread to at least try. It’s not his team mates being annoyed with him on irc, forcing him to stop screwing around, it’s in the goddamn thread. Despite relatively weak reasoning for voting annul, there was a lack of counter-bandwagons. Annul himself votes for gryffindor, so you would assume that if mafia had tried to save him, a bunch of votes would jump on Gryffindor. But this doesn’t happen, and annul didn’t try and bring a convincing case against Gryffindor himself. His reason was more just a justification of the vote, than an atttempt to convince others. Again, when asked in the thread: On February 25 2011 10:55 kitaman27 wrote: I would like to see your analysis of gryffindor if you are truly "making your move" On February 25 2011 10:58 annul wrote: i cant exactly give you my reason due to an edict imposed onto me by ROL (i offer myself to lightning if i am lying about this). but part of it is "between wiggles and gryffindor, i like gryffindor more." i haven't done any deep analysis on either of them really, i am only voting to save my ass. but others seem to have done so, so perhaps go with them? He still refuses to fight for himself. We know from mafia xxxv where he got LSB lynched, that annul can be convincing and lead a lynch. In this game he doesn’t even try, despite having access to a team of scumbuddies who can help his arguments or give his bandwagon weight. Here he doesn’t even try until asked to in the thread. He doesn’t role claim despite being asked to. He really only puts up a vote on a possible counter-bandwagon an hour before lynch time, and he doesn’t try to push the case. Yet he flips mafia. Mafia day 1 lynches are extremely rare, and games are balanced around town missing day 1 lynch. I haven’t seen it in any of my other games on TL. Yet we got one, where a majority of the votes was hardly because they thought he was red. The push for him was weak, and could have been easily diverted to a player like Gryffindor or icemac. If those 2 aren’t red, then annul was a bus. 3) As pointed out under 1), there was already a lot of suspicion against annul by the time LSB entered the scene. Yet LSB takes the full credit for the lynch: On February 25 2011 11:58 LSB wrote: I AM POWN On February 25 2011 12:04 LSB wrote: MEDIC PLEASE PROTECT ME. And Foolishness too. On February 25 2011 12:08 LSB wrote: W/e PROTECT ME MEDICS Please!!!! … No credit to the players I mentioned under 1). Deconduo was the first to cast his vote, yet he doesn’t try to use it to prove his alignment to town. LSB on the other hand has no issue with drawing medic protection to himself alone. He initially offers it to Foolishness, who didn’t even have a vote on annul by the time he died, but quickly changes his mind. All LSB cares about is himself. This is pure anti town behavior. Medic protection is just as much the threat of a player being protected, as it is the actual protection. Beceause medics actually rarely saves a hit, it's the mentioning of the possibility that is the real strength, it makes scum target others. The day 1 pattern fits exactly step 1, 2 and 3 above. There is suspicion against a mafia player A when mafia player B enters the scene. Mafia player B pushes the lynch, and when mafia player A flips, player B tries to take full credit for the kill, not recognising other players initiated the lynch and uses the town cred to his advantage. Question is, is this too obvious? Would LSB really follow the most obvious signs of a bussing mafia player? First of all you have to remember LSB and annul have a history. When LSB enters the scene, annul has already gotten suspicion on him. It would be suspicious by itself, if LSB didn’t try to push annul. So say LSB and annul are on a team together, what do they do? They know they can’t suddenly appear to be friends. Since annul is already suspicious, why not make the best of it? Secondly LSB does not shy away from playing obvious when anti town: HPmafia: LSB runs for mayor day 1, despite being asked by his team not to. As a result, Dr.H calls for a mafia bus on him (LSB was snape in this game, so we suspected he might betray us). Day 1 proceeds to have the whole scumteam accuse LSB, yet he manages to get RoL to trust him, and gets the lynch diverted. He also fishes out RoL’s veteran role, so on night 1 mafia stack hits on RoL to take him out. By day 2 it was blatantly obvious that LSB wasn't town alligned. Diplomacy MiniMafia: In Qatol’s words: LSB was one of the most blatant scum we've had in a long time. Ace roleclaims vigi, which is just about the most easily confirmed role ever, without being under serious pressure, and what does LSB do in response? Take Spain. Then he tries to lead a bandwagon to lynch Ace. When that fails, he makes a fleet so he can take out Portugal before the first time Ace can use his vigi hit. I couldn't understand how anybody could think a townie would do that. PYP3 (LSB was SK): LSB pushes a plan that is centered around confirming blue roles, giving SK all the information he could wish for to blue snipe. Busing his team mate to grant himself a town leader position, and direct medic protection on to himself only, is entirely the kind of power play LSB is known for. Part 2 and 3 coming up. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
First of all, it’s difficult to pinpoint that exact moment in time, or post by annul, that convinces LSB that annul is mafia. In his first post: Annul's attacking people way to early again... interesting... not the first time he did this. Last time he did this he was mafia. I'm keeping this in mind. He is keeping annul’s play style in mind, so he is suspicious of him. Now, should we waste a lynch on an inactive? How about instead we push town inactives to modkill themselves? What do you guys think about that? We get to use our lynch on annul, and the inactives still disappear! In the next post LSB sound like he has already sorted annul as a lynch! Nothing happened between this post and the previous that should have raised his suspicion. But now it sounds like the lynch is already planned. Again, this is the fault of annul, he just asserts that he is right with no real reasoning. This is bad for the town for two reasons. 1) It makes him an easy bus by the mafia, ie merc mafia. 2) It makes it easy for him to hide when he actually is mafia. While discussing with annul this post comes up. He is bad for town, but not necessarily mafia. On February 24 2011 12:49 LSB wrote: ##Vote Annul I don't want to take him to lylo, and I don't think that he can be persuaded to modkilled himself His reason for voting. Doesn’t say annul is mafia. Note what a shit reason is, when was the last time you heard of someone who got persuaded to be modkilled? When LunarDestiny offered to get modkilled in mafia xxxvi, several mafia veterans felt the need to shout foul play in thread. Exactly, I've already explained why Annul is a horrible choice as we go to lylo. In addition, Annul is playing pretty scummy you can read my responses to his posts. Its a two for one deal. Still isn’t mafia. On February 24 2011 15:31 LSB wrote: PMs are great for purposes other than trying to make some kind of ill fated town circle which is going to fail and loose the town the game. For example, in PM gryffindor just defended Iceman/annul. When annul flips red this will prove very useful information. Woops! Now not only is annul now mafia, he is also flipping red. Between the last posts annul hasn’t posted, there has been no new evidence. There is no smoking gun. Yet now annul is suddenly red. What’s even more interesting is this isn’t even brought up while talking about annul, it slips out when he is trying to connect others to annul. Now most people who has played mafia a few times will agree that there is no such thing as a proof of alignment, without either mod interference (like bumatlarge in mafia xxxvi) or stuff like DT checks after Godfather is dead. Even then a miller can mislead. In the end, the only sure thing is just a convincing analysis. For town there is always the possibility of being wrong. This result in a sliding indicator of suspicion against a player, that can get stronger or weaker depending on actions and arguments. Thus a vote for a townie is more a case of suspicion vs suspicion, where the guy with the highest amount of suspicion from the majority of the player gets voted off. LSB doesn’t go through a process of higher or lower suspicion. There is an obvious inconsistency between lynching annul for being obstructive to the town, to suddenly know he is red. This is not the only time LSB foregoes the suspicion state. For a lynch on Jackal, LSB demands “proof”: If we are going to lynch Jackal, it can't just because of a "maybe" or a "tell". I want proof. LSB is experienced enough to know there is no such thing as certainty, especially not on day 1. He dismisses the arguments I brought forward regarding Jackal, and while my arguments might be wrong, they should still raise suspicion. You can argue against the argument’s and disagree with the conclusions, but you can never get proof, since only mafia knows who’s red and who’s town. LSB doesn’t need convincing of Foolishness either: Everyone trusts certain people. For example, I'm trusting Foolishness because I don't believe that RoL would make him mafia given the state of TL town. This argument has no behaviour support at this point in the game. It’s an arbitrary reason for placing trust in someone, and it lacks that distrust of others that is indicative of town behaviour. In part 1 I mentioned that a bunch of townies was already suspicious of annul before LSB enters the scene. They tried to reason with annul, and they asked him to explain his actions, also known as scumhunting. LSB is not actually concerned with scumhunting. He instead tries to find connections to other players: When I read through those posts, I see Icemanic supporting Annul's thoughts against the plan. In addition "day 1 analysis doesn't matter" is something I always watch out for as scum defence of scumbudie. To me, if Annul is mafia, icemanic isn't looking so hot. On February 24 2011 15:31 LSB wrote: PMs are great for purposes other than trying to make some kind of ill fated town circle which is going to fail and loose the town the game. For example, in PM gryffindor just defended Iceman/annul. When annul flips red this will prove very useful information. On February 25 2011 07:25 LSB wrote: ~snip~ Gryfs Pms Why would a townie be so concerned with connections to others before we even know if we have 1 scum? This early in the game it’s very unusual for mafia to directly defend each others. But a mafia whos bussing his team mate needs someone to connect to afterwards, to make the lynch worthwhile. LSB doesn’t actually start scumhunting and asking questions before close to the deadline. In between his suspicious way of reaching the conclusion that annul was scum, he has a fight with annul, but not even here does he asks for explanations, or for better reasons. For him, it’s more important to find others to go after once annul flips red, than to actually get convinced of annul's allignment. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Now, at this point of time, mafia is sweating, they need to finger someone, and fast. There were two lynches that may be indicative of this Icanflylow, which is an inactive lynch, or Jackal58. I posted my analysis before you entered the picture, and before annul came back to spew nonsense. I doubt mafia was pressured at that point. They would be now though! How silly of them to initiate a fight with the guy who made sure he got the most town cred from yesterdays lynch. Barundar takes a very small part, one post and runs far with it. This is what I call, “Forcing analysis”. Barundar is trying to look for practically anything to be able to throw mud to he makes a mountain out of a molehill It’s day 1, there is limited information to pick from. Didn’t stop you from providing “proof” of annul of course. What’s interesting is you didn’t find Jackal’s post scummy at all. Other people did, and Darmousseh found it reasoned enough to vote for it. I still don’t know if Jackal is town or not, but you seem to do. Only mafia know’s whos innocent and whos guilty. The rest of us only have our arguments and assumptions. In this post Barundar says that we shouldn’t look at how Annul played in XXXV, as past analysis isn’t an example of proof. Nope, it’s an argument. I invoked past analysis on Jackal’s behaviour in my case against him. I might have be wrong, or I might have been right. Point is even the best analysis and most obvious reasons can be wrong. Your denial of this fact as a mafia vet is laughable. But guess what? That’s what Barundar based his Jackal case on, past analysis Lol yeah of course I used analysis in my analysis of Jackal. Now you are really trying hard. What I am saying is that Jackal wrote two kinds of posts this game. The first is just an apology that he's going to be busy. This is very standard. And the second is his normal fair, not explaining much. The problem is your argument is this. 1) Jackal isn't posting as usual, so he must be mafia 2) Jackal is posting as usual, so he must be mafia. You are going to have to pick one of the two. You can't argue both. As for Jackal58 having good hunches, iirc he wasn't too far off the mark in midgame XXXVI There is no contradiction. My argument was 1) of the 2 above, Jackal was posting unlike his past games. When he started posting more like he normally did my suspicion dropped a bit. Sadly that’s how suspicion works for us townies. Now let me show you a contradiction: if Jackal is such an awesome scumhunter, why don’t you place him as such on your list? You place him as an easy bus, yet I can’t recall jackal actually being lynched except as mafia. On the one hand you argue Jackal is a great scumhunter, on the other you argue he is an easy bus. So which one is it? Contradictions are scummy because they indicate forced analysis. The thing is, when someone plays as mafia, it’s hard to do analysis because you know that the person who you are doing analysis is town, so you have to make up stuff. And contradictions come when mafia isn’t careful with their fiction writing. I completely agree. See this post. And if you want proof I'm green, the fact that foolishness is still alive and wasn't triple stacked last night should be good enough. + Show Spoiler + <3 you foolishness You feel the need to green claim? Second time you claim townie. And wtf is up with you constantly sucking up to Foolishness, you scared of him? | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
##Vote: LSB | ||
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