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TL Mafia XXXVII - Page 46

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LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
February 26 2011 17:29 GMT
#901
I’d like to thank Barundar for bringing himself to my attention. He flew off of my radar for a while, but now I remember why I had a red read on him

Read the following spoiler before you yell OMGUS + Show Spoiler +
So you say, LSB is this just an OMGUS vote?
Not really because I do have analysis. But the thing is, with annul at the helm, he probably knows the importance of taking me out in any way possible, and since I’m doctor protected, he can’t take me out at night so the mafia will try to do it during the day


1. Barundar attempts to redirect the lynch off of annul
This has two parts, a forced analysis of Jackal, and a weak defense of Annul
Barundar’s attack on Jackal
Now, at this point of time, mafia is sweating, they need to finger someone, and fast. There were two lynches that may be indicative of this Icanflylow, which is an inactive lynch, or Jackal58.

Barundar is the person who started the Jackal bandwagon, and lets look at it.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=191888&currentpage=33#647
Barundar describes his analysis best here
On February 24 2011 21:14 Barundar wrote:
It's true that Jackal hasn't posted much, and that his first post is by far the substantive part of my argument. But that is beceause that was where he messed up. Mafia aren't going to be suspecious all the way, mafia can contribute or share when they feel it furthers their cause. But his first post set off all the alarms, it contains multiple apologies for not only time, also for "new players" in the game, and it promises more, that wasn't delivered.

Barundar takes a very small part, one post and runs far with it. This is what I call, “Forcing analysis”. Barundar is trying to look for practically anything to be able to throw mud to he makes a mountain out of a molehill

Barundar’s defense of Annul
On February 25 2011 05:08 Barundar wrote:
But you want "proof". Can you hand me the proof for annul so I can vote him then?

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=191888&currentpage=38#753
His defense of Annul here.

2. Contradictions, lots of them to try to ‘prove his point’
On February 25 2011 09:19 Barundar wrote:
Show nested quote +
Storytime! Why Annul was an easy read in XXXV
1) He mad up stuff and pushed stuff that didn't exist
Check, this game he's pushing GMarshal, saying GMarshal is clear mafia, although there is literally nothing in his accusation
2) Besides responses, he posted nothing else
Look at Annul's posts. How many of his posts deal with things other than Gmarshal or defending himself? I can't find any.

A storytime? Thats your example of proof?

I see a weak case, and absolutely no opposition to lynching annul, despite him being far ahead, and noone really taking responsability for pushing it. Weak case and no opposition=townie from my experience. There is not even a serius alternative at this point.

In this post Barundar says that we shouldn’t look at how Annul played in XXXV, as past analysis isn’t an example of proof.

But guess what? That’s what Barundar based his Jackal case on, past analysis
This post is COMPLETELY out of the ordinary for Jackal.

Jackal’s playstyle as town consist of independent opinions, with a tendency to tunnel. His posting style is stubborn and humorous. He rarely posts long posts, and in general just give short statements, but often posts a lot. When he finds scum, he will make it clear for everyone, state his reasons, and keep up pressure on the person. Being stubborn he is very difficult to convince otherwise, once he has found his target(s).



In addition, as I explained before, his push for Jackal relies on a huge contradiction
On February 25 2011 07:36 LSB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2011 05:08 Barundar wrote:
On February 25 2011 04:32 LSB wrote:
On February 25 2011 03:25 Barundar wrote:
On February 25 2011 03:08 LSB wrote:
On February 24 2011 19:39 Jackal58 wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 24 2011 18:33 Barundar wrote:
Morning all, as promised I’ve read up and here is my contribution. As a fair warning it’s a wall of text, first is my general comments on the thread so far, last is my analysis.

First off, goddammit GMarshal, leaking my top suspect. Can’t you hold it in for 1 night? I wanted to see if he would actually post in the evening as he promised, but the weak FoS gave him a chance to defend himself before I got around to post. Well, at least it proved that Jackal58 has great reaction time, despite not talking much.

My thoughts on the thread so far:
GMarshals plan is a lot like what RoL has recommended for PM’s, pick out some random people from the list and start talking to them. While you can’t trust them, you get more to analyse, and it’s easier to catch a mafia slipping up if you have more opinions from them. Just be careful with experienced players, and treat your partners like they are scum. If I was on a scumteam, I would tell my inexperienced teammates to stay out of PM land.

Gryffindor proposes a really silly (in lack of a better word) plan, there is no way of finding guaranteed innocents with GF and framer around, and even if one such could be found, all mafia has to do is gain his trust and make him spill, =dead blues. The only benefit of mass claim to a confirmed townie is the coordination of medic protection and DT checks. It won’t magicly find mafia amongst the non claimers, or identify fake claims.

What gryffindor does do is post a lot, he promotes activity, and he is actually scumhunting. I don’t give much for his lists, but so far his impact has been positive on the town, as long as people don’t stop thinking for themselves.

Regarding annul, you should keep in mind that he opposed GMarshals plan before he (allegedly) got his role PM. Hence I would be very careful with lynching him just for opposing that alone. Other than that agree with Foolishness’ comment, it would be funny if LSB got revenge on annul.

Why has a decent case on icemac, but not certain if icemac is aggressive townie or mafia.

Analysis of Jackal58
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 00:47 Jackal58 wrote:
Good day fellow scum hunters. Sorry for the late start but I bowl on Tuesday night.
There are quite a few people in this game that I have never seen before so it's going to take me a bit to wrap my head around everything everybody has said so far.

My thoughts on cells:
Thoroughly undecided. If their only reason for being is analysis keep it in the thread.

I'm at work right now so I might not be able to post as much as I'd like, but I'll be in here this evening.

gryffindor why on earth would you claim vet? I did it in XXXVI to avoid being lynched but man that was pointless. You're making the hair on the back of my neck stand up.


This post is COMPLETELY out of the ordinary for Jackal.

Jackal’s playstyle as town consist of independent opinions, with a tendency to tunnel. His posting style is stubborn and humorous. He rarely posts long posts, and in general just give short statements, but often posts a lot. When he finds scum, he will make it clear for everyone, state his reasons, and keep up pressure on the person. Being stubborn he is very difficult to convince otherwise, once he has found his target(s).

In the above post he differs from his usual play as town in a number of ways.
Show nested quote +
Sorry for the late start but I…
Show nested quote +
… so it's going to take me a bit to wrap my head around everything everybody has said so far.
Show nested quote +
…so I might not be able to post as much as I'd like…

First of all he gives multiple excuses as to his posting straight away. This is unlike his other games, even in his first game in mafia xxxv he didn’t feel the need to excuse his inexperience without being called out for it. As I said above, Jackal is an independent player, he doesn’t care much if people accuse him, town yells at him or if the things he sais comes off in the wrong way. Him apologising like this upfront, without anyone even calling him out is unusual.

If you a read Ver’s guide to improving at mafia, it’s not natural for a green mindset to apologise and appear useless, since it will make other players pay less attention to what they have to say. It is however entirely within the mindset of a mafia, who just want to make a post noone cares about, and let the town fight with itself instead.

He apologies for posting less, but in normal games his many first posts are just one liners, this one is a lengthy one for him. By sheer size it should be an improvement for him, but what does it really contain?
Show nested quote +
My thoughts on cells:
Thoroughly undecided. If their only reason for being is analysis keep it in the thread.

His thoughts are thoroughly undecided. Why even comment then? If this is the reason he felt the need to add to the conversation, then I sincerely expected more. Jackal as town has very strong opinions, and this is just neutral mentioning – he doesn’t improve the plan, he just questions it. Posting without contributing.

Show nested quote +
gryffindor why on earth would you claim vet? I did it in XXXVI to avoid being lynched but man that was pointless. You're making the hair on the back of my neck stand up.

A weak FoS with a relevant question. On one hand it is sort of an opinion, on the other hand it has been posted before. In Guts and Glory he simply quoted Amber[light]’s post and commented “this post ems of scummyness”. Weak FoS isn’t typical Jackal, even if I wouldn’t rule it out. It’s not much to warrant a post like that from him though.

Show nested quote +
I'm at work right now so I might not be able to post as much as I'd like, but I'll be in here this evening.

He promises to post more in the evening. I was holding this analysis back to see if he actually would. As I said in the beginning, this got ruined, but he didn’t post until he got mentioned, and it still proved his reaction time was good. Note that Jackal has been posting from work in his other games, and it hasn’t stopped him from being active.

Other suspicious post:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 01:56 Jackal58 wrote:
I have received a PM from GMarshall as well. Whoopee. I will probably even answer him.
But posting quotes and copies of PMs is a very scummy thing to do. You can make them say anything. Please stop.

Sharp reaction to getting PM’ed. Jackal had no problem PM’ing with me in mafia xxxv.

##Vote Jackal58

Actually my style is identical to every other game I've played. Not one of them has me aggressively tunneling anybody in the first day or two. I don't do that until I get a line on somebody.

I'm going to have too agree with Jacakl here, Barundar you are reading too much in one post. Sure, it might be useful in RL mafia trying to pick off tells on how people are phrasing things, but in online mafia, it's a whole different game.
For example, my first post was apologizing that I wouldn't be active, and I'm town. It's not like that apologizing is necessarily a bad thing.

Perhaps I am reading too much into one post. But he isn't doing much to prove me wrong. He puts a nice OMGUS on me, states that I'm part of a scumteam, and then does nothing to scumhunt against me or point out why I would be mafia. He is acting inconsistent with his own scumlist.

Problem isn't that he excused himself. Problem is he held an apologetic tone without contributing much. It makes his post suspecious, and I find it interesting that you don't think it is the least suspecious.

Now he has shown some agression that can be hard to fake, and is quite typical for him. But he is by no means clear of suspecion just beceause he posts an OMGUS list.

I don't find him suspicions because that's how he plays. Jackel58 is known to post an OMGUS list with little/no explanation, but he is scary accurate on the scum. Look at Guts and Glory. Jackel didn't really do much in the game but name 4 people. Of the 4 people, 3 were scum.
If we are going to lynch Jackal, it can't just because of a "maybe" or a "tell". I want proof.

Lol when did Jackal become gods gift to scumhunt? He sheeped after Coag onto GGQ in that game, messing up the Amber lynch. He also had me pegged as mafia in a post. In mini mafia V he tunneled pandain so hard he nearly lost the game for town alone.

I wrote Jackal's playstyle into my post. I don't see you disagreeing with what I wrote there? I also explained why his first post differed from that.

What I am saying is that Jackal wrote two kinds of posts this game. The first is just an apology that he's going to be busy. This is very standard. And the second is his normal fair, not explaining much.

The problem is your argument is this.
1) Jackal isn't posting as usual, so he must be mafia
2) Jackal is posting as usual, so he must be mafia.

You are going to have to pick one of the two. You can't argue both.

As for Jackal58 having good hunches, iirc he wasn't too far off the mark in midgame XXXVI

Show nested quote +
But you want "proof". Can you hand me the proof for annul so I can vote him then?

Look to the post I just did


Contradictions are scummy because they indicate forced analysis. The thing is, when someone plays as mafia, it’s hard to do analysis because you know that the person who you are doing analysis is town, so you have to make up stuff. And contradictions come when mafia isn’t careful with their fiction writing.




And if you want proof I'm green, the fact that foolishness is still alive and wasn't triple stacked last night should be good enough.

+ Show Spoiler +
<3 you foolishness


##Vote Barundar
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
February 26 2011 18:12 GMT
#902
Haha LSB nice of you to show your true colors. I have no problem dieing if it proves to town that you are red. I wonder if you can say the same?

To everyone else, I will post a full case on LSB later. He has several inconsistencies in his posts, showing that he

1) staged the annul lynch
2) tried to take more credit for a lynch than he deserved.

For now I would just like to point out he doesn't actually even defend himself against my accusation.
Bartundar
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
February 26 2011 18:18 GMT
#903
1. Barundar attempts to redirect the lynch off of annul


Wouldn't mafia, if they were trying to redirect off annul, find it easier to pick gryf to stack on? He lied multiple times, changed from no to the PMs to yes to PMs but with his own list. I mean, that's a much easier case to be made than to do it on jackal right? It doesn't make sense to try to push jackal is a viable lynch candidate for mafia when the big juicy target of gryf is there.
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
February 26 2011 18:21 GMT
#904
the contradictions though...i'mma go reread
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
February 26 2011 18:46 GMT
#905
On February 27 2011 03:18 chaoser wrote:
Show nested quote +
1. Barundar attempts to redirect the lynch off of annul


Wouldn't mafia, if they were trying to redirect off annul, find it easier to pick gryf to stack on? He lied multiple times, changed from no to the PMs to yes to PMs but with his own list. I mean, that's a much easier case to be made than to do it on jackal right? It doesn't make sense to try to push jackal is a viable lynch candidate for mafia when the big juicy target of gryf is there.

Imo jackal is an easier lynch candidate because his posts are borderline spam (but correct spam written with a gold pen), and gryf had mods telling people to lay off speculation on who his he.
In addition, Bill Murray town play is exactly like how you described, a simple link to Haunted Mafia would have killed any serious bandwagon.

On February 27 2011 03:12 Barundar wrote:
To everyone else, I will post a full case on LSB later. He has several inconsistencies in his posts, showing that he

1) staged the annul lynch
2) tried to take more credit for a lynch than he deserved.

I'm going to hold you accountable to this

For now I would just like to point out he doesn't actually even defend himself against my accusation.

That was an accusation?
This is what your points were.
1) Tried to find mafia from Annul's pre-written Goodbye post
2) Speculated that Rol must have ensured that foolishness and me are on different teams
3) Assume that Annul would let me bus him
4) Says that my scumdar was too good
5) Claim that not voting for Annul is a town tell.

Do you seriously want me to respond to them?
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
why
Profile Joined May 2009
United States215 Posts
February 26 2011 18:56 GMT
#906
On February 25 2011 05:08 Barundar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2011 04:32 LSB wrote:
On February 25 2011 03:25 Barundar wrote:
On February 25 2011 03:08 LSB wrote:
On February 24 2011 19:39 Jackal58 wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 24 2011 18:33 Barundar wrote:
Morning all, as promised I’ve read up and here is my contribution. As a fair warning it’s a wall of text, first is my general comments on the thread so far, last is my analysis.

First off, goddammit GMarshal, leaking my top suspect. Can’t you hold it in for 1 night? I wanted to see if he would actually post in the evening as he promised, but the weak FoS gave him a chance to defend himself before I got around to post. Well, at least it proved that Jackal58 has great reaction time, despite not talking much.

My thoughts on the thread so far:
GMarshals plan is a lot like what RoL has recommended for PM’s, pick out some random people from the list and start talking to them. While you can’t trust them, you get more to analyse, and it’s easier to catch a mafia slipping up if you have more opinions from them. Just be careful with experienced players, and treat your partners like they are scum. If I was on a scumteam, I would tell my inexperienced teammates to stay out of PM land.

Gryffindor proposes a really silly (in lack of a better word) plan, there is no way of finding guaranteed innocents with GF and framer around, and even if one such could be found, all mafia has to do is gain his trust and make him spill, =dead blues. The only benefit of mass claim to a confirmed townie is the coordination of medic protection and DT checks. It won’t magicly find mafia amongst the non claimers, or identify fake claims.

What gryffindor does do is post a lot, he promotes activity, and he is actually scumhunting. I don’t give much for his lists, but so far his impact has been positive on the town, as long as people don’t stop thinking for themselves.

Regarding annul, you should keep in mind that he opposed GMarshals plan before he (allegedly) got his role PM. Hence I would be very careful with lynching him just for opposing that alone. Other than that agree with Foolishness’ comment, it would be funny if LSB got revenge on annul.

Why has a decent case on icemac, but not certain if icemac is aggressive townie or mafia.

Analysis of Jackal58
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 00:47 Jackal58 wrote:
Good day fellow scum hunters. Sorry for the late start but I bowl on Tuesday night.
There are quite a few people in this game that I have never seen before so it's going to take me a bit to wrap my head around everything everybody has said so far.

My thoughts on cells:
Thoroughly undecided. If their only reason for being is analysis keep it in the thread.

I'm at work right now so I might not be able to post as much as I'd like, but I'll be in here this evening.

gryffindor why on earth would you claim vet? I did it in XXXVI to avoid being lynched but man that was pointless. You're making the hair on the back of my neck stand up.


This post is COMPLETELY out of the ordinary for Jackal.

Jackal’s playstyle as town consist of independent opinions, with a tendency to tunnel. His posting style is stubborn and humorous. He rarely posts long posts, and in general just give short statements, but often posts a lot. When he finds scum, he will make it clear for everyone, state his reasons, and keep up pressure on the person. Being stubborn he is very difficult to convince otherwise, once he has found his target(s).

In the above post he differs from his usual play as town in a number of ways.
Show nested quote +
Sorry for the late start but I…
Show nested quote +
… so it's going to take me a bit to wrap my head around everything everybody has said so far.
Show nested quote +
…so I might not be able to post as much as I'd like…

First of all he gives multiple excuses as to his posting straight away. This is unlike his other games, even in his first game in mafia xxxv he didn’t feel the need to excuse his inexperience without being called out for it. As I said above, Jackal is an independent player, he doesn’t care much if people accuse him, town yells at him or if the things he sais comes off in the wrong way. Him apologising like this upfront, without anyone even calling him out is unusual.

If you a read Ver’s guide to improving at mafia, it’s not natural for a green mindset to apologise and appear useless, since it will make other players pay less attention to what they have to say. It is however entirely within the mindset of a mafia, who just want to make a post noone cares about, and let the town fight with itself instead.

He apologies for posting less, but in normal games his many first posts are just one liners, this one is a lengthy one for him. By sheer size it should be an improvement for him, but what does it really contain?
Show nested quote +
My thoughts on cells:
Thoroughly undecided. If their only reason for being is analysis keep it in the thread.

His thoughts are thoroughly undecided. Why even comment then? If this is the reason he felt the need to add to the conversation, then I sincerely expected more. Jackal as town has very strong opinions, and this is just neutral mentioning – he doesn’t improve the plan, he just questions it. Posting without contributing.

Show nested quote +
gryffindor why on earth would you claim vet? I did it in XXXVI to avoid being lynched but man that was pointless. You're making the hair on the back of my neck stand up.

A weak FoS with a relevant question. On one hand it is sort of an opinion, on the other hand it has been posted before. In Guts and Glory he simply quoted Amber[light]’s post and commented “this post ems of scummyness”. Weak FoS isn’t typical Jackal, even if I wouldn’t rule it out. It’s not much to warrant a post like that from him though.

Show nested quote +
I'm at work right now so I might not be able to post as much as I'd like, but I'll be in here this evening.

He promises to post more in the evening. I was holding this analysis back to see if he actually would. As I said in the beginning, this got ruined, but he didn’t post until he got mentioned, and it still proved his reaction time was good. Note that Jackal has been posting from work in his other games, and it hasn’t stopped him from being active.

Other suspicious post:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 01:56 Jackal58 wrote:
I have received a PM from GMarshall as well. Whoopee. I will probably even answer him.
But posting quotes and copies of PMs is a very scummy thing to do. You can make them say anything. Please stop.

Sharp reaction to getting PM’ed. Jackal had no problem PM’ing with me in mafia xxxv.

##Vote Jackal58

Actually my style is identical to every other game I've played. Not one of them has me aggressively tunneling anybody in the first day or two. I don't do that until I get a line on somebody.

I'm going to have too agree with Jacakl here, Barundar you are reading too much in one post. Sure, it might be useful in RL mafia trying to pick off tells on how people are phrasing things, but in online mafia, it's a whole different game.
For example, my first post was apologizing that I wouldn't be active, and I'm town. It's not like that apologizing is necessarily a bad thing.

Perhaps I am reading too much into one post. But he isn't doing much to prove me wrong. He puts a nice OMGUS on me, states that I'm part of a scumteam, and then does nothing to scumhunt against me or point out why I would be mafia. He is acting inconsistent with his own scumlist.

Problem isn't that he excused himself. Problem is he held an apologetic tone without contributing much. It makes his post suspecious, and I find it interesting that you don't think it is the least suspecious.

Now he has shown some agression that can be hard to fake, and is quite typical for him. But he is by no means clear of suspecion just beceause he posts an OMGUS list.

I don't find him suspicions because that's how he plays. Jackel58 is known to post an OMGUS list with little/no explanation, but he is scary accurate on the scum. Look at Guts and Glory. Jackel didn't really do much in the game but name 4 people. Of the 4 people, 3 were scum.
If we are going to lynch Jackal, it can't just because of a "maybe" or a "tell". I want proof.

Lol when did Jackal become gods gift to scumhunt? He sheeped after Coag onto GGQ in that game, messing up the Amber lynch. He also had me pegged as mafia in a post. In mini mafia V he tunneled pandain so hard he nearly lost the game for town alone.

I wrote Jackal's playstyle into my post. I don't see you disagreeing with what I wrote there? I also explained why his first post differed from that.

But you want "proof". Can you hand me the proof for annul so I can vote him then?


I actually agree with LSB here that Barundar should at least be pressured. The last game I played with Barundar (XXXV) he tended to post with good reasoning and took all sides of an issue into account. In other words, he seems unusually angry and emotional defending annul (and FoSing LSB, come to think of it), which he doesn't exhibit as town in my experience.

##Vote: Barundar

I would also like to draw a bit of attention to beneather. At the moment he has 3 posts in which he actually says something.

On February 25 2011 07:15 Beneather wrote:
I have been inactive I really do not know who to vote for so I guess I am going to bandwagon on Icemac. But if you look at who is voting for icemac it's the new players that are voting for him and that annul is getting voted by the more experienced players in the game.

##Vote: Icemac


At this point in the game the major lynches are icemac and annul. Here beneather posts an excuse, a reason to vote for annul (because all the experienced players are doing it), and then proceeds to randomly bandwagon on icemac (the major competitor for lynch with annul at this point). This feels like an inactive scum random voting for the other wagon.

On February 25 2011 08:33 Beneather wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2011 08:27 kevconsim wrote:
##Unvote

Vote Annul

I feel like either iceman or Annul are good choices and i think that Annul is being to agressive right now and i dont like that.


You don't like aggressive players :O! So like do you want everyone to be all lovey dovey and not attack or try to put a FoS on somebody you want everyone to do NOTHING?! I have not heard anything from you but bandwagoning... No but like you've posted absolutely nothing not even a reason for your vote. Can we atleast get an explanation why you don't like annul's aggressiveness?


Here Beneather praises aggressiveness and is a little bit aggressive towards an inactive. Of course, the problem with this post is that it comes at the height of the annul lynch, with Beneather never really addresses. This would have been a perfect opportunity to give his opinion on annul, but instead he calls out an easy target. Looks like trying to avoid the inactive label while avoiding the spotlight to me.

On February 25 2011 09:05 Beneather wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2011 09:03 kevconsim wrote:
If you have read the thread i have discussed why i think Iceman is a good choice.

Annul's posts a lot and he doesnt say much while trying to defend himself.
I feel he is the best choice.

I think it is funny that you are asking me questions about bandwagoning when you are bandwagoning.

I have been inactive I really do not know who to vote for so I guess I am going to bandwagon on Icemac.


I was just asking why you were voting for him.


And then when kevconsim calls Beneather out for hypocrisy, Beneather immediately backs off and returns to inactivity. Seems like he's nervous about something, doesn't it?

Anyway, it definitely isn't enough to lynch beneather, but I'd suggest that we keep an eye on him.
RLTY
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States965 Posts
February 26 2011 19:08 GMT
#907
On February 27 2011 02:29 LSB wrote:
I’d like to thank Barundar for bringing himself to my attention. He flew off of my radar for a while, but now I remember why I had a red read on him

Read the following spoiler before you yell OMGUS + Show Spoiler +
So you say, LSB is this just an OMGUS vote?
Not really because I do have analysis. But the thing is, with annul at the helm, he probably knows the importance of taking me out in any way possible, and since I’m doctor protected, he can’t take me out at night so the mafia will try to do it during the day


1. Barundar attempts to redirect the lynch off of annul
This has two parts, a forced analysis of Jackal, and a weak defense of Annul
Barundar’s attack on Jackal
Now, at this point of time, mafia is sweating, they need to finger someone, and fast. There were two lynches that may be indicative of this Icanflylow, which is an inactive lynch, or Jackal58.

Barundar is the person who started the Jackal bandwagon, and lets look at it.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=191888&currentpage=33#647
Barundar describes his analysis best here
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 21:14 Barundar wrote:
It's true that Jackal hasn't posted much, and that his first post is by far the substantive part of my argument. But that is beceause that was where he messed up. Mafia aren't going to be suspecious all the way, mafia can contribute or share when they feel it furthers their cause. But his first post set off all the alarms, it contains multiple apologies for not only time, also for "new players" in the game, and it promises more, that wasn't delivered.

Barundar takes a very small part, one post and runs far with it. This is what I call, “Forcing analysis”. Barundar is trying to look for practically anything to be able to throw mud to he makes a mountain out of a molehill

Barundar’s defense of Annul
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2011 05:08 Barundar wrote:
But you want "proof". Can you hand me the proof for annul so I can vote him then?

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=191888&currentpage=38#753
His defense of Annul here.

2. Contradictions, lots of them to try to ‘prove his point’
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2011 09:19 Barundar wrote:
Storytime! Why Annul was an easy read in XXXV
1) He mad up stuff and pushed stuff that didn't exist
Check, this game he's pushing GMarshal, saying GMarshal is clear mafia, although there is literally nothing in his accusation
2) Besides responses, he posted nothing else
Look at Annul's posts. How many of his posts deal with things other than Gmarshal or defending himself? I can't find any.

A storytime? Thats your example of proof?

I see a weak case, and absolutely no opposition to lynching annul, despite him being far ahead, and noone really taking responsability for pushing it. Weak case and no opposition=townie from my experience. There is not even a serius alternative at this point.

In this post Barundar says that we shouldn’t look at how Annul played in XXXV, as past analysis isn’t an example of proof.

But guess what? That’s what Barundar based his Jackal case on, past analysis
Show nested quote +
This post is COMPLETELY out of the ordinary for Jackal.

Jackal’s playstyle as town consist of independent opinions, with a tendency to tunnel. His posting style is stubborn and humorous. He rarely posts long posts, and in general just give short statements, but often posts a lot. When he finds scum, he will make it clear for everyone, state his reasons, and keep up pressure on the person. Being stubborn he is very difficult to convince otherwise, once he has found his target(s).



In addition, as I explained before, his push for Jackal relies on a huge contradiction
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2011 07:36 LSB wrote:
On February 25 2011 05:08 Barundar wrote:
On February 25 2011 04:32 LSB wrote:
On February 25 2011 03:25 Barundar wrote:
On February 25 2011 03:08 LSB wrote:
On February 24 2011 19:39 Jackal58 wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 24 2011 18:33 Barundar wrote:
Morning all, as promised I’ve read up and here is my contribution. As a fair warning it’s a wall of text, first is my general comments on the thread so far, last is my analysis.

First off, goddammit GMarshal, leaking my top suspect. Can’t you hold it in for 1 night? I wanted to see if he would actually post in the evening as he promised, but the weak FoS gave him a chance to defend himself before I got around to post. Well, at least it proved that Jackal58 has great reaction time, despite not talking much.

My thoughts on the thread so far:
GMarshals plan is a lot like what RoL has recommended for PM’s, pick out some random people from the list and start talking to them. While you can’t trust them, you get more to analyse, and it’s easier to catch a mafia slipping up if you have more opinions from them. Just be careful with experienced players, and treat your partners like they are scum. If I was on a scumteam, I would tell my inexperienced teammates to stay out of PM land.

Gryffindor proposes a really silly (in lack of a better word) plan, there is no way of finding guaranteed innocents with GF and framer around, and even if one such could be found, all mafia has to do is gain his trust and make him spill, =dead blues. The only benefit of mass claim to a confirmed townie is the coordination of medic protection and DT checks. It won’t magicly find mafia amongst the non claimers, or identify fake claims.

What gryffindor does do is post a lot, he promotes activity, and he is actually scumhunting. I don’t give much for his lists, but so far his impact has been positive on the town, as long as people don’t stop thinking for themselves.

Regarding annul, you should keep in mind that he opposed GMarshals plan before he (allegedly) got his role PM. Hence I would be very careful with lynching him just for opposing that alone. Other than that agree with Foolishness’ comment, it would be funny if LSB got revenge on annul.

Why has a decent case on icemac, but not certain if icemac is aggressive townie or mafia.

Analysis of Jackal58
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 00:47 Jackal58 wrote:
Good day fellow scum hunters. Sorry for the late start but I bowl on Tuesday night.
There are quite a few people in this game that I have never seen before so it's going to take me a bit to wrap my head around everything everybody has said so far.

My thoughts on cells:
Thoroughly undecided. If their only reason for being is analysis keep it in the thread.

I'm at work right now so I might not be able to post as much as I'd like, but I'll be in here this evening.

gryffindor why on earth would you claim vet? I did it in XXXVI to avoid being lynched but man that was pointless. You're making the hair on the back of my neck stand up.


This post is COMPLETELY out of the ordinary for Jackal.

Jackal’s playstyle as town consist of independent opinions, with a tendency to tunnel. His posting style is stubborn and humorous. He rarely posts long posts, and in general just give short statements, but often posts a lot. When he finds scum, he will make it clear for everyone, state his reasons, and keep up pressure on the person. Being stubborn he is very difficult to convince otherwise, once he has found his target(s).

In the above post he differs from his usual play as town in a number of ways.
Show nested quote +
Sorry for the late start but I…
Show nested quote +
… so it's going to take me a bit to wrap my head around everything everybody has said so far.
Show nested quote +
…so I might not be able to post as much as I'd like…

First of all he gives multiple excuses as to his posting straight away. This is unlike his other games, even in his first game in mafia xxxv he didn’t feel the need to excuse his inexperience without being called out for it. As I said above, Jackal is an independent player, he doesn’t care much if people accuse him, town yells at him or if the things he sais comes off in the wrong way. Him apologising like this upfront, without anyone even calling him out is unusual.

If you a read Ver’s guide to improving at mafia, it’s not natural for a green mindset to apologise and appear useless, since it will make other players pay less attention to what they have to say. It is however entirely within the mindset of a mafia, who just want to make a post noone cares about, and let the town fight with itself instead.

He apologies for posting less, but in normal games his many first posts are just one liners, this one is a lengthy one for him. By sheer size it should be an improvement for him, but what does it really contain?
Show nested quote +
My thoughts on cells:
Thoroughly undecided. If their only reason for being is analysis keep it in the thread.

His thoughts are thoroughly undecided. Why even comment then? If this is the reason he felt the need to add to the conversation, then I sincerely expected more. Jackal as town has very strong opinions, and this is just neutral mentioning – he doesn’t improve the plan, he just questions it. Posting without contributing.

Show nested quote +
gryffindor why on earth would you claim vet? I did it in XXXVI to avoid being lynched but man that was pointless. You're making the hair on the back of my neck stand up.

A weak FoS with a relevant question. On one hand it is sort of an opinion, on the other hand it has been posted before. In Guts and Glory he simply quoted Amber[light]’s post and commented “this post ems of scummyness”. Weak FoS isn’t typical Jackal, even if I wouldn’t rule it out. It’s not much to warrant a post like that from him though.

Show nested quote +
I'm at work right now so I might not be able to post as much as I'd like, but I'll be in here this evening.

He promises to post more in the evening. I was holding this analysis back to see if he actually would. As I said in the beginning, this got ruined, but he didn’t post until he got mentioned, and it still proved his reaction time was good. Note that Jackal has been posting from work in his other games, and it hasn’t stopped him from being active.

Other suspicious post:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 01:56 Jackal58 wrote:
I have received a PM from GMarshall as well. Whoopee. I will probably even answer him.
But posting quotes and copies of PMs is a very scummy thing to do. You can make them say anything. Please stop.

Sharp reaction to getting PM’ed. Jackal had no problem PM’ing with me in mafia xxxv.

##Vote Jackal58

Actually my style is identical to every other game I've played. Not one of them has me aggressively tunneling anybody in the first day or two. I don't do that until I get a line on somebody.

I'm going to have too agree with Jacakl here, Barundar you are reading too much in one post. Sure, it might be useful in RL mafia trying to pick off tells on how people are phrasing things, but in online mafia, it's a whole different game.
For example, my first post was apologizing that I wouldn't be active, and I'm town. It's not like that apologizing is necessarily a bad thing.

Perhaps I am reading too much into one post. But he isn't doing much to prove me wrong. He puts a nice OMGUS on me, states that I'm part of a scumteam, and then does nothing to scumhunt against me or point out why I would be mafia. He is acting inconsistent with his own scumlist.

Problem isn't that he excused himself. Problem is he held an apologetic tone without contributing much. It makes his post suspecious, and I find it interesting that you don't think it is the least suspecious.

Now he has shown some agression that can be hard to fake, and is quite typical for him. But he is by no means clear of suspecion just beceause he posts an OMGUS list.

I don't find him suspicions because that's how he plays. Jackel58 is known to post an OMGUS list with little/no explanation, but he is scary accurate on the scum. Look at Guts and Glory. Jackel didn't really do much in the game but name 4 people. Of the 4 people, 3 were scum.
If we are going to lynch Jackal, it can't just because of a "maybe" or a "tell". I want proof.

Lol when did Jackal become gods gift to scumhunt? He sheeped after Coag onto GGQ in that game, messing up the Amber lynch. He also had me pegged as mafia in a post. In mini mafia V he tunneled pandain so hard he nearly lost the game for town alone.

I wrote Jackal's playstyle into my post. I don't see you disagreeing with what I wrote there? I also explained why his first post differed from that.

What I am saying is that Jackal wrote two kinds of posts this game. The first is just an apology that he's going to be busy. This is very standard. And the second is his normal fair, not explaining much.

The problem is your argument is this.
1) Jackal isn't posting as usual, so he must be mafia
2) Jackal is posting as usual, so he must be mafia.

You are going to have to pick one of the two. You can't argue both.

As for Jackal58 having good hunches, iirc he wasn't too far off the mark in midgame XXXVI

But you want "proof". Can you hand me the proof for annul so I can vote him then?

Look to the post I just did


Contradictions are scummy because they indicate forced analysis. The thing is, when someone plays as mafia, it’s hard to do analysis because you know that the person who you are doing analysis is town, so you have to make up stuff. And contradictions come when mafia isn’t careful with their fiction writing.




And if you want proof I'm green, the fact that foolishness is still alive and wasn't triple stacked last night should be good enough.

+ Show Spoiler +
<3 you foolishness


##Vote Barundar

Fair analysis. I just want to ask about the lynches. Haven't played with TL before
How significant are Darmousseh, Kitaman27, Mr. Wiggles as players? Are the known for being good players, etc. ? Also, is there any of their caliber that "should be dead" but isn't?
I'm okay with
##Vote Barundar
for now.
RLTY
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States965 Posts
February 26 2011 19:12 GMT
#908
On February 27 2011 04:08 icemac wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2011 02:29 LSB wrote:
I’d like to thank Barundar for bringing himself to my attention. He flew off of my radar for a while, but now I remember why I had a red read on him

Read the following spoiler before you yell OMGUS + Show Spoiler +
So you say, LSB is this just an OMGUS vote?
Not really because I do have analysis. But the thing is, with annul at the helm, he probably knows the importance of taking me out in any way possible, and since I’m doctor protected, he can’t take me out at night so the mafia will try to do it during the day


1. Barundar attempts to redirect the lynch off of annul
This has two parts, a forced analysis of Jackal, and a weak defense of Annul
Barundar’s attack on Jackal
Now, at this point of time, mafia is sweating, they need to finger someone, and fast. There were two lynches that may be indicative of this Icanflylow, which is an inactive lynch, or Jackal58.

Barundar is the person who started the Jackal bandwagon, and lets look at it.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=191888&currentpage=33#647
Barundar describes his analysis best here
On February 24 2011 21:14 Barundar wrote:
It's true that Jackal hasn't posted much, and that his first post is by far the substantive part of my argument. But that is beceause that was where he messed up. Mafia aren't going to be suspecious all the way, mafia can contribute or share when they feel it furthers their cause. But his first post set off all the alarms, it contains multiple apologies for not only time, also for "new players" in the game, and it promises more, that wasn't delivered.

Barundar takes a very small part, one post and runs far with it. This is what I call, “Forcing analysis”. Barundar is trying to look for practically anything to be able to throw mud to he makes a mountain out of a molehill

Barundar’s defense of Annul
On February 25 2011 05:08 Barundar wrote:
But you want "proof". Can you hand me the proof for annul so I can vote him then?

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=191888&currentpage=38#753
His defense of Annul here.

2. Contradictions, lots of them to try to ‘prove his point’
On February 25 2011 09:19 Barundar wrote:
Storytime! Why Annul was an easy read in XXXV
1) He mad up stuff and pushed stuff that didn't exist
Check, this game he's pushing GMarshal, saying GMarshal is clear mafia, although there is literally nothing in his accusation
2) Besides responses, he posted nothing else
Look at Annul's posts. How many of his posts deal with things other than Gmarshal or defending himself? I can't find any.

A storytime? Thats your example of proof?

I see a weak case, and absolutely no opposition to lynching annul, despite him being far ahead, and noone really taking responsability for pushing it. Weak case and no opposition=townie from my experience. There is not even a serius alternative at this point.

In this post Barundar says that we shouldn’t look at how Annul played in XXXV, as past analysis isn’t an example of proof.

But guess what? That’s what Barundar based his Jackal case on, past analysis
This post is COMPLETELY out of the ordinary for Jackal.

Jackal’s playstyle as town consist of independent opinions, with a tendency to tunnel. His posting style is stubborn and humorous. He rarely posts long posts, and in general just give short statements, but often posts a lot. When he finds scum, he will make it clear for everyone, state his reasons, and keep up pressure on the person. Being stubborn he is very difficult to convince otherwise, once he has found his target(s).



In addition, as I explained before, his push for Jackal relies on a huge contradiction
On February 25 2011 07:36 LSB wrote:
On February 25 2011 05:08 Barundar wrote:
On February 25 2011 04:32 LSB wrote:
On February 25 2011 03:25 Barundar wrote:
On February 25 2011 03:08 LSB wrote:
On February 24 2011 19:39 Jackal58 wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 24 2011 18:33 Barundar wrote:
Morning all, as promised I’ve read up and here is my contribution. As a fair warning it’s a wall of text, first is my general comments on the thread so far, last is my analysis.

First off, goddammit GMarshal, leaking my top suspect. Can’t you hold it in for 1 night? I wanted to see if he would actually post in the evening as he promised, but the weak FoS gave him a chance to defend himself before I got around to post. Well, at least it proved that Jackal58 has great reaction time, despite not talking much.

My thoughts on the thread so far:
GMarshals plan is a lot like what RoL has recommended for PM’s, pick out some random people from the list and start talking to them. While you can’t trust them, you get more to analyse, and it’s easier to catch a mafia slipping up if you have more opinions from them. Just be careful with experienced players, and treat your partners like they are scum. If I was on a scumteam, I would tell my inexperienced teammates to stay out of PM land.

Gryffindor proposes a really silly (in lack of a better word) plan, there is no way of finding guaranteed innocents with GF and framer around, and even if one such could be found, all mafia has to do is gain his trust and make him spill, =dead blues. The only benefit of mass claim to a confirmed townie is the coordination of medic protection and DT checks. It won’t magicly find mafia amongst the non claimers, or identify fake claims.

What gryffindor does do is post a lot, he promotes activity, and he is actually scumhunting. I don’t give much for his lists, but so far his impact has been positive on the town, as long as people don’t stop thinking for themselves.

Regarding annul, you should keep in mind that he opposed GMarshals plan before he (allegedly) got his role PM. Hence I would be very careful with lynching him just for opposing that alone. Other than that agree with Foolishness’ comment, it would be funny if LSB got revenge on annul.

Why has a decent case on icemac, but not certain if icemac is aggressive townie or mafia.

Analysis of Jackal58
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 00:47 Jackal58 wrote:
Good day fellow scum hunters. Sorry for the late start but I bowl on Tuesday night.
There are quite a few people in this game that I have never seen before so it's going to take me a bit to wrap my head around everything everybody has said so far.

My thoughts on cells:
Thoroughly undecided. If their only reason for being is analysis keep it in the thread.

I'm at work right now so I might not be able to post as much as I'd like, but I'll be in here this evening.

gryffindor why on earth would you claim vet? I did it in XXXVI to avoid being lynched but man that was pointless. You're making the hair on the back of my neck stand up.


This post is COMPLETELY out of the ordinary for Jackal.

Jackal’s playstyle as town consist of independent opinions, with a tendency to tunnel. His posting style is stubborn and humorous. He rarely posts long posts, and in general just give short statements, but often posts a lot. When he finds scum, he will make it clear for everyone, state his reasons, and keep up pressure on the person. Being stubborn he is very difficult to convince otherwise, once he has found his target(s).

In the above post he differs from his usual play as town in a number of ways.
Show nested quote +
Sorry for the late start but I…
Show nested quote +
… so it's going to take me a bit to wrap my head around everything everybody has said so far.
Show nested quote +
…so I might not be able to post as much as I'd like…

First of all he gives multiple excuses as to his posting straight away. This is unlike his other games, even in his first game in mafia xxxv he didn’t feel the need to excuse his inexperience without being called out for it. As I said above, Jackal is an independent player, he doesn’t care much if people accuse him, town yells at him or if the things he sais comes off in the wrong way. Him apologising like this upfront, without anyone even calling him out is unusual.

If you a read Ver’s guide to improving at mafia, it’s not natural for a green mindset to apologise and appear useless, since it will make other players pay less attention to what they have to say. It is however entirely within the mindset of a mafia, who just want to make a post noone cares about, and let the town fight with itself instead.

He apologies for posting less, but in normal games his many first posts are just one liners, this one is a lengthy one for him. By sheer size it should be an improvement for him, but what does it really contain?
Show nested quote +
My thoughts on cells:
Thoroughly undecided. If their only reason for being is analysis keep it in the thread.

His thoughts are thoroughly undecided. Why even comment then? If this is the reason he felt the need to add to the conversation, then I sincerely expected more. Jackal as town has very strong opinions, and this is just neutral mentioning – he doesn’t improve the plan, he just questions it. Posting without contributing.

Show nested quote +
gryffindor why on earth would you claim vet? I did it in XXXVI to avoid being lynched but man that was pointless. You're making the hair on the back of my neck stand up.

A weak FoS with a relevant question. On one hand it is sort of an opinion, on the other hand it has been posted before. In Guts and Glory he simply quoted Amber[light]’s post and commented “this post ems of scummyness”. Weak FoS isn’t typical Jackal, even if I wouldn’t rule it out. It’s not much to warrant a post like that from him though.

Show nested quote +
I'm at work right now so I might not be able to post as much as I'd like, but I'll be in here this evening.

He promises to post more in the evening. I was holding this analysis back to see if he actually would. As I said in the beginning, this got ruined, but he didn’t post until he got mentioned, and it still proved his reaction time was good. Note that Jackal has been posting from work in his other games, and it hasn’t stopped him from being active.

Other suspicious post:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 01:56 Jackal58 wrote:
I have received a PM from GMarshall as well. Whoopee. I will probably even answer him.
But posting quotes and copies of PMs is a very scummy thing to do. You can make them say anything. Please stop.

Sharp reaction to getting PM’ed. Jackal had no problem PM’ing with me in mafia xxxv.

##Vote Jackal58

Actually my style is identical to every other game I've played. Not one of them has me aggressively tunneling anybody in the first day or two. I don't do that until I get a line on somebody.

I'm going to have too agree with Jacakl here, Barundar you are reading too much in one post. Sure, it might be useful in RL mafia trying to pick off tells on how people are phrasing things, but in online mafia, it's a whole different game.
For example, my first post was apologizing that I wouldn't be active, and I'm town. It's not like that apologizing is necessarily a bad thing.

Perhaps I am reading too much into one post. But he isn't doing much to prove me wrong. He puts a nice OMGUS on me, states that I'm part of a scumteam, and then does nothing to scumhunt against me or point out why I would be mafia. He is acting inconsistent with his own scumlist.

Problem isn't that he excused himself. Problem is he held an apologetic tone without contributing much. It makes his post suspecious, and I find it interesting that you don't think it is the least suspecious.

Now he has shown some agression that can be hard to fake, and is quite typical for him. But he is by no means clear of suspecion just beceause he posts an OMGUS list.

I don't find him suspicions because that's how he plays. Jackel58 is known to post an OMGUS list with little/no explanation, but he is scary accurate on the scum. Look at Guts and Glory. Jackel didn't really do much in the game but name 4 people. Of the 4 people, 3 were scum.
If we are going to lynch Jackal, it can't just because of a "maybe" or a "tell". I want proof.

Lol when did Jackal become gods gift to scumhunt? He sheeped after Coag onto GGQ in that game, messing up the Amber lynch. He also had me pegged as mafia in a post. In mini mafia V he tunneled pandain so hard he nearly lost the game for town alone.

I wrote Jackal's playstyle into my post. I don't see you disagreeing with what I wrote there? I also explained why his first post differed from that.

What I am saying is that Jackal wrote two kinds of posts this game. The first is just an apology that he's going to be busy. This is very standard. And the second is his normal fair, not explaining much.

The problem is your argument is this.
1) Jackal isn't posting as usual, so he must be mafia
2) Jackal is posting as usual, so he must be mafia.

You are going to have to pick one of the two. You can't argue both.

As for Jackal58 having good hunches, iirc he wasn't too far off the mark in midgame XXXVI

But you want "proof". Can you hand me the proof for annul so I can vote him then?

Look to the post I just did


Contradictions are scummy because they indicate forced analysis. The thing is, when someone plays as mafia, it’s hard to do analysis because you know that the person who you are doing analysis is town, so you have to make up stuff. And contradictions come when mafia isn’t careful with their fiction writing.




And if you want proof I'm green, the fact that foolishness is still alive and wasn't triple stacked last night should be good enough.

+ Show Spoiler +
<3 you foolishness


##Vote Barundar

Fair analysis. I just want to ask about the lynches. Haven't played with TL before
How significant are Darmousseh, Kitaman27, Mr. Wiggles as players? Are the known for being good players, etc. ? Also, is there any of their caliber that "should be dead" but isn't?
I'm okay with
##Vote Barundar
for now.

lol by lynches i mean hits
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
February 26 2011 19:26 GMT
#909
There are three goals for night kills
1) Take out good players
2) Take out blues
3) Take out active players.

Generally TL mafia shoots down all active players until the town kills itself with inactivity.

Now, we can devide the people into 4 groups

Btw, I define bus as mafia started lynch.

Priority 1: Automatic night 1 snipes if possible
These players are proven scumhunters
LSB
Foolishness

Priority 2: Active vets
These player have quiet a few games under their belt and are pretty active
Barundar
CubEdIn
darmousseh
GMarshal
Beneather
seRapH
kitaman27
Mr. Wiggles
chaoser
LunarDestiny
deconduo
why

Priority 3: Kill if you think they are blue
These players are generally inactive, or easily to bus
Coagulation
Jackal58
Kenpachi
annul
gryffindor
ohN

Uncatagorized: Newish people, sort them into the three groups as they start playing
icemac
OriginalName
JBright
astroorion
Gofarman
MaxwellE
Conversion
kevconsim
ICanFlyLow
Ser Aspi
LastArgument




Please note, this isn't really indicative of skill. Someone like Jackal58 who is good at finding scum is increadibly easy to bus. On the other hand, people like DocH and Pandain (they aren't playing) are active, but aren't really good at finding scum.

And this is all subjective some names I don't recognize, and I made it off of what I remember. Especially Priority 1
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
February 26 2011 19:32 GMT
#910
How to use the list
Firstly, the list should sort of establish a minimum threshold for a lynch. Basically if we are going to lynch a priority 1 person, the analysis must be far better than a priority 3 person, because if we're wrong, that would be far worse for the town.

Secondly, we have to keep a watch of Priority 2 people. These people will start dropping like flies at night. At the same time there probably is 2-3 mafia in the list. This list may prove useful in the latter stages of the game, where there are lots of dead people.
If Beneather and Barundar are the only ones left in Priority 2, and everyone else is a dead townie their, we can be 90% sure they are mafia.

So this will be the Priority 2 watchlist. It won't be useful now, but day 4/5 it will be very useful as a place to start looking for scum

Barundar
CubEdIn
GMarshal
Beneather
seRapH
chaoser
LunarDestiny
deconduo
why


"But LSB", you ask, "does this work?"
Yes!
Look at Pokemafia. Infun is a priority 1 player. It was interesting how he didn't die. Well, that was because he was mafia.

In addition, by publishing this list, mafia will probably be more warey of killing people who are priority two. It also gives an incentive for newer players to post lots, so they will get into priority two.

If people have any suggestions for changes to the list, just post/pm me.
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 26 2011 19:41 GMT
#911
Interesting list, LSB it seems like a solid system, it reminds me a little bit of Ace's Zodiac List. So we should keep our eyes out for players in Lists 1 and 2 lasting till the lategame. I think DT checks should be focused on the undecided/list 3 people as they seem to be more likely to not be framed or covered. Medics need to protect list 1.

I like this list because it thinks longterm, while it won't be terribly useful for scum hunting now, when day 5 rolls around it will be much more useful.

Thinking critically I can't really find anything really at fault on this list other than it seems like List 1 players are being given perhaps a little too much of a protective treatment, which could be a scum move to ensure they get to late game/waste medics, still it seems like a solid thought process

Moderator
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
February 26 2011 19:54 GMT
#912
I don't agree with you LSB, Jackal wasn't an easier choice than Gryf or icemac. I think at that point, no one had voted for Jackal yet, so for mafia to start a completely new bandwagon instead of using one that already had a decent amount of people in it is weird and not what mafia would do.

Priority 1: Automatic night 1 snipes if possible
These players are proven scumhunters
LSB
Foolishness


So basically you claimed town, you didn't even say "good players" you said "proven scumhunters" aka keep us around cause we'll help town win please don't lynch us or town is fucked. Not to mention you scream for medic protection, making it seem like you're town.

Basically if we are going to lynch a priority 1 person, the analysis must be far better than a priority 3 person, because if we're wrong, that would be far worse for the town.


If we're wrong about you being town and you're actually mafia then it's far worse for the town as well.

The whole time you've been building up this image of, don't lynch me town, you're going to get dicked cause you need me via subtle threats to town. BC's guide has stated that we need multiple leaders and not to depend on one guy. By trying to consolidate power in a way that's subtle and a bit underhanded, aren't you just making the town depend on you? That's the worse possible thing for town to do, especially since there's a decent amount of newbies who will sheep. What are you trying to pull? I don't know if you're red but I do know that if barundar flips green, you're the first one on my lynch list.
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
February 26 2011 19:56 GMT
#913
BumAtLarge has just replaced ICanFlyLow
Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
February 26 2011 20:01 GMT
#914
well well well
lookie who we have here
if it isnt bum the scum
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
February 26 2011 20:03 GMT
#915
EBWOP (is that how you abbreviate it? lol):

I don't agree with you LSB, Jackal wasn't an easier choice than Gryf or icemac. I think at that point, no one had voted for Jackal yet, so for mafia to start a completely new bandwagon instead of using one that already had a decent amount of people in it is weird and not what mafia would do.


The only reason mafia would pick jackal over BOTH grfy and icemac is if both of them were mafia and they had to start a new one. So if barundar does flip red, we should pay attention to those two
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
February 26 2011 20:03 GMT
#916
##VOTE BumAtLarge
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
February 26 2011 20:11 GMT
#917
On February 27 2011 04:54 chaoser wrote:
So basically you claimed town, you didn't even say "good players" you said "proven scumhunters" aka keep us around cause we'll help town win please don't lynch us or town is fucked. Not to mention you scream for medic protection, making it seem like you're town.

So what do you think about the actual list?
You haven't commented if its a good idea or not. Ad Hominem arguments don't count.

In addition, how is the list consolidating power? It's not reliant on me at all, in fact, the purpose of the list is so that when I'm dead, people will have an idea of what the mafia is doing and what to pay attention to.
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
February 26 2011 20:24 GMT
#918
On February 27 2011 05:11 LSB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2011 04:54 chaoser wrote:
So basically you claimed town, you didn't even say "good players" you said "proven scumhunters" aka keep us around cause we'll help town win please don't lynch us or town is fucked. Not to mention you scream for medic protection, making it seem like you're town.

So what do you think about the actual list?
You haven't commented if its a good idea or not. Ad Hominem arguments don't count.

In addition, how is the list consolidating power? It's not reliant on me at all, in fact, the purpose of the list is so that when I'm dead, people will have an idea of what the mafia is doing and what to pay attention to.


I love the list. It's awesome, it helps direct those that are newbies and also paints us an easy picture to see what the status of the game is like currently. It makes me think you're either super pro town or you're doing a power play as mafia, which i know you like to do. Basically I'm acknowledging you're a good player. But if you're mafia, then I want to note these little things and point them out to people so that if we need to in the future, we can come back and look at you again.

I'm not saying the list itself is consolidating power, i'm saying that you're dropping little hints everywhere that you should be protected, that if you die then town will be losing a valuable asset and it'll be in a deeper hole than if you were alive. I'm reading it as subtle threats to town.
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
February 26 2011 21:28 GMT
#919
If annul wasn't bussed by deconduo I'll eat my shorts. But I might have to consider you assholes provided such a spammy thread for me to read through. And what's all this list and cell stuff. Am I supposed to be PM'ing people now? LSB sucks. Coagulation is funny.

Give me a second to read through this disease again before I can actually say annul was bussed or not. (for once you might be right coagulation). Annul is not a bad player, I think there was some deliberate scumtells going on here. The chances of getting mafia who do not want to get caught are very slim. Instead of shouting warnings you should be clarifying exactly what is entailed by a certain outcome, which is annul being bussed.

But I need to sleep because relaxing is hard. So give me a good gist on how the lynch went down please? The night seems pretty straightforward, they had 4 members and used the round-up thing to get to 3kp. that means they didn't spend it doing other stuff, which is important for when you get information during a night where the KP doesn't quite add up.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
February 26 2011 21:32 GMT
#920
Fair analysis. I just want to ask about the lynches. Haven't played with TL before
How significant are Darmousseh, Kitaman27, Mr. Wiggles as players? Are the known for being good players, etc. ? Also, is there any of their caliber that "should be dead" but isn't?
I'm okay with
##Vote Barundar
for now.

Mr Wiggles excels at analytical thought. He rapes clues.
Darmousseh is a much better townie than a scum.
I wasn't shocked that either of them were hit.
Kitaman27 took me aback a bit. But I haven't played a lot with him.
I would have expected LSB, Barundar or GMarshall to get hit. All are 3 excellent players on both sides of the game.
It's so cute when scumbuddies stage a fight.

Life can only kill you once.
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