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Well, I guess that shows what happens when Iran doesn't announce its attack week in advance and there are no US, Brits, French, Kurds, Jordanians and Iraquis intercepting drones and missiles for Isreal.
I have seen claims that Nevatim air base (where Israeli F-35 are stationed) was one of the targets. I do hope the strikes were limited to military targets.
Edit: Also claims that Israeli oil rig was one of the targets. Also the number 200 circlets in Internet about how many missiles were fired.
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On October 02 2024 02:54 maybenexttime wrote: It really depends on what was hit. The Iron Dome is designed to ignore missiles which are unlikely to to hit any military/civilian targets.
I doubt it really matters much, zero casualties would still yield the same result because this time it was actual humans that were attacked so you need a strong response.
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I don't understand the military strategy of this. You do basically no damage and the say that your response has "been duly carried out". But it gives Israel carte blanche on how they want to respond the missile barrage. With the additional confidence that yet another barrage was successfully defended. It is like some strange virtue signaling.
The response will be interesting, if it will be just Israel, same sort of thing as last time or much more? Then will other western nations join in? What will happen in Yemen and Syria?
I do not really know what to discuss with so many unanswered questions.
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On October 02 2024 03:12 Billyboy wrote:I don't understand the military strategy of this. You do basically no damage and the say that your response has "been duly carried out". But it gives Israel carte blanche on how they want to respond the missile barrage. With the additional confidence that yet another barrage was successfully defended. It is like some strange virtue signaling. The response will be interesting, if it will be just Israel, same sort of thing as last time or much more? Then will other western nations join in? What will happen in Yemen and Syria? I do not really know what to discuss with so many unanswered questions.
It's posturing. Iran has been made to look like complete fools in the last few months. The terrorist organizations that is Hamas and Hezbollah is sponsored by Iran, but Iran hasn't been able to do anything about their continuous dismantlement since Oct 7. Now, as Israel started crossing the borders into Lebanon, Iran felt forced to posture some more to show "we are really doing something you guys!"
But yes, every time they do, Israel responds 10-fold, as is their official stance
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So Iranians are willing to fight a doomed war. The ball is in US court now, the scale of Israeli retaliation will determine the escalation level. One thing is for certain, there will be no '"diplomatic solution" to Gaza for years. (if ever)
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On October 02 2024 03:26 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2024 03:12 Billyboy wrote:I don't understand the military strategy of this. You do basically no damage and the say that your response has "been duly carried out". But it gives Israel carte blanche on how they want to respond the missile barrage. With the additional confidence that yet another barrage was successfully defended. It is like some strange virtue signaling. The response will be interesting, if it will be just Israel, same sort of thing as last time or much more? Then will other western nations join in? What will happen in Yemen and Syria? I do not really know what to discuss with so many unanswered questions. It's posturing. Iran has been made to look like complete fools in the last few months. The terrorist organizations that is Hamas and Hezbollah is sponsored by Iran, but Iran hasn't been able to do anything about their continuous dismantlement since Oct 7. Now, as Israel started crossing the borders into Lebanon, Iran felt forced to posture some more to show "we are really doing something you guys!" But yes, every time they do, Israel responds 10-fold, as is their official stance Isn't this kind of negative posturing though? Since it shows how hollow their rhetoric is?
To me these kind of attacks would embolden the Israeli's and depress the proxy armies. Or do maybe the fighters not know the results and just see the missiles streaking?
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I think it's very very difficult for Iran to calibrate their response. They have to do something now that Israel is so handily dismantling hizbollah. I bet they wanted something to hit, to strike some fear in the Israelis while not compelling them to respond. I hope Israel strikes Iran's nuclear facilities now.
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On October 02 2024 03:28 pmp10 wrote: So Iranians are willing to fight a doomed war. The ball is in US court now, the scale of Israeli retaliation will determine the escalation level. One thing is for certain, there will be no '"diplomatic solution" to Gaza for years. (if ever) Well considering Biden "believes in (having) a ceasefire with immediate effect" whilst doing nearly nothing to reign in Israel, peace seems far off...you would think if nothing else he'd be incentivized to create some stability for the sake of Kamala's campaign if nothing else. Problematically for Biden though is it doesn't take a genius to recognize that while the Dems hav been great, Bibi would prefer Trump in office come January.
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De-escalation through escalation is working very nicely. They all get the war they so desperately wanted.
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On October 02 2024 03:43 Cricketer12 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2024 03:28 pmp10 wrote: So Iranians are willing to fight a doomed war. The ball is in US court now, the scale of Israeli retaliation will determine the escalation level. One thing is for certain, there will be no '"diplomatic solution" to Gaza for years. (if ever) Well considering Biden "believes in (having) a ceasefire with immediate effect" whilst doing nearly nothing to reign in Israel, peace seems far off...you would think if nothing else he'd be incentivized to create some stability for the sake of Kamala's campaign if nothing else. Problematically for Biden though is it doesn't take a genius to recognize that while the Dems hav been great, Bibi would prefer Trump in office come January. I don't think the democratic electorate has been concerned so far. The subject of Gaza slowly disappeared from the campaign and no one will pity Iran or Hezbollah. The results of a bombing war won't be felt in US anytime soon either.
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On October 02 2024 04:01 pmp10 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2024 03:43 Cricketer12 wrote:On October 02 2024 03:28 pmp10 wrote: So Iranians are willing to fight a doomed war. The ball is in US court now, the scale of Israeli retaliation will determine the escalation level. One thing is for certain, there will be no '"diplomatic solution" to Gaza for years. (if ever) Well considering Biden "believes in (having) a ceasefire with immediate effect" whilst doing nearly nothing to reign in Israel, peace seems far off...you would think if nothing else he'd be incentivized to create some stability for the sake of Kamala's campaign if nothing else. Problematically for Biden though is it doesn't take a genius to recognize that while the Dems hav been great, Bibi would prefer Trump in office come January. I don't think the democratic electorate has been concerned so far. The subject of Gaza slowly disappeared from the campaign and no one will pity Iran or Hezbollah. The results of a bombing war won't be felt in US anytime soon either.
It's going to matter in Michigan most likely.
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Is it actually failing or were these rockets falling somewhere with no military/civilians nearby so they were ignored? I remember hearing a couples of time that Iron Dome doesn't intercept rockets that won't hit anything important - which is very often the case with Hamas "home-made" rockets.
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People are saying some of the missiles were being ignored deliberately, presumably because they were pointed at empty areas. So far I haven't seen any reports of casualties.
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Anyone remember how long after Iran's last barrage it was until Israel's response?
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April 13 to April 19 so almost a week. It likely took a lot of US lobbying to delay and limit that response back then.
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Apparently the Iron Dome calculates the trajectory and ignores everything that otherwise would land "nowhere". That said, we've seen rockets pass through and hit Tel Aviv (or right outside, bit difficult to tell from the videos). So it definitely has its limitations
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On October 02 2024 04:34 pmp10 wrote: April 13 to April 19 so almost a week. It likely took a lot of US lobbying to delay and limit that response back then. Thank you. We have quite a long wait then to know if this is it or continued escalation.
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On October 02 2024 04:57 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2024 04:34 pmp10 wrote: April 13 to April 19 so almost a week. It likely took a lot of US lobbying to delay and limit that response back then. Thank you. We have quite a long wait then to know if this is it or continued escalation.
They already said, they intend to respond tonight: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg4qx62kkxxt (post on 20:33 British time).
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On October 02 2024 05:04 Silvanel wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2024 04:57 Billyboy wrote:On October 02 2024 04:34 pmp10 wrote: April 13 to April 19 so almost a week. It likely took a lot of US lobbying to delay and limit that response back then. Thank you. We have quite a long wait then to know if this is it or continued escalation. They already said, they intend to respond tonight: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg4qx62kkxxt (post on 20:33 British time). It's a misquote, Hagari said the Israeli Air Force "continues to operate at full capacity, and tonight will also continue to strike powerfully in the Middle East, as has been the case for the past year." It wasn't about the response to this, it was about whether air force operations are impacted by the missile strikes (presumably at air bases).
They can't just shoot willy nilly into Iran in a matter of hours, there's lots to deliberate internally about the response and after that they'll have to run it by the US as well.
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