EPTThings Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine - Page 338
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Elroi
Sweden5606 Posts
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Billyboy
2008 Posts
On October 02 2024 06:15 Elroi wrote: The Swedish newspapers I'm reading are saying that Netanyahu has promised to retaliate. Here is the quote I'm reading. “Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it. The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies,” he said. “We will stand by the rule we established: whoever attacks us — we will attack him,” he continued. I'd say the bold part is the part that (hopefully) everyone participating agrees with. The next part is where the divergence happens. Some think no retaliation what so ever is appropriate, some think it is but only if no civilians can be harmed (or maybe few but that is nebulous so I'm leaving it out for ease), and some think as long as it is a military target than some civilians are a price they are willing to pay as it is the aggressors fault for putting the military targets under or near them. I'm also sure there are some people who have the same (though flipped) opinion of Iran, that the others are just all enemies and need to be exterminated. Gladly I don't believe any of those people from either side are here. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12477 Posts
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Gahlo
United States35173 Posts
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Elroi
Sweden5606 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On October 02 2024 07:12 Elroi wrote: Same result though? We know many missiles succeeded in landing around the israeli airbase with their F35 fleet. We know their refueling crafts managed to fly away before missiles struck, but we don’t know what was damaged at the airbase. If the refueling fleet got away, probably same with F35s. But Israel probably won’t provide a full list of the damage done to their airbase. I don’t know if we would hear about an F35 being hit. But I think it’s very unlikely any aircraft were hit. Regardless, this attack showed Iran could have totally blasted Israel’s major government buildings and whatnot. So while this was not an attack to kick off a full ass war, it was proof that Iran can likely success in overwhelming Israel’s defenses. That being said, there’s so much 4d chess to consider it’s hard to say. In theory Israel strictly benefits from allowing as many missiles to hit as possible so long as the targets aren’t critical. I think many people agree Israel likely had a few aces up their sleeve they are saving for an attack intended to wipe out Israel. Similar to how we haven’t seen any cutting edge tech out of the US for decades because it is best saved as a surprise. For all we know, Israel effectively had a 100% success rate and everything that got through was calculated. | ||
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Excludos
Norway8270 Posts
I honestly thought we were going to see casualties in the hundreds. Iran should be thankful for the incompetence (or perhaps competance, if this was the goal all along), as the Israel response is likely going to be a lot more muted than first expected | ||
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Excludos
Norway8270 Posts
On October 02 2024 03:30 Billyboy wrote: Isn't this kind of negative posturing though? Since it shows how hollow their rhetoric is? To me these kind of attacks would embolden the Israeli's and depress the proxy armies. Or do maybe the fighters not know the results and just see the missiles streaking? Well, people are apparantly celebrating in the streets. So I'm going to proclaim the posturing was a huge success: https://www.timesofisrael.com/celebrations-erupt-on-the-streets-of-iran-as-irgc-hails-missile-attack-against-israel/ These are not intelligent people. So hollow rhetoric works just fine here | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12477 Posts
On October 02 2024 14:35 Excludos wrote: Well, people are apparantly celebrating in the streets. So I'm going to proclaim the posturing was a huge success: https://www.timesofisrael.com/celebrations-erupt-on-the-streets-of-iran-as-irgc-hails-missile-attack-against-israel/ These are not intelligent people. So hollow rhetoric works just fine here Personally wouldn't question other people's intelligence within 24 hours of having said "Israel is now compelled to carpet bomb Iran" but that's just me. Iranian people are not immune to propaganda and you aren't either. | ||
Falling
Canada11583 Posts
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Excludos
Norway8270 Posts
On October 02 2024 14:59 Nebuchad wrote: Personally wouldn't question other people's intelligence within 24 hours of having said "Israel is now compelled to carpet bomb Iran" but that's just me. Iranian people are not immune to propaganda and you aren't either. Not sure what your point is. Me reading into what Israels likely response (based on the limited information we had at the time which I already explained looked a lot worse than the end result) isn't "effect of propaganda". That wasn't me sitting there with glee on my face. It was based off of Israels official mandate. They are still going to strike back, 100%, just likely a lot less muted than first anticipated. That's not propaganda Edit: rereading it, I misunderstood the argument. Whilst I can agree on my own questionable intelligence, repeating a state's official standpoint, even with hyperbole, would not be the reason why | ||
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Elroi
Sweden5606 Posts
A quick strike to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities would also be nice… | ||
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pmp10
3398 Posts
The problem with that approach is Iran might go 'use it or lose it' in response and rush development of something bomb-like. EDIT: And Biden's stance on hitting nuclear sites is predictable 'no' in public. For once Bibi might listen. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
On October 02 2024 06:42 Nebuchad wrote: To other people who recognize themselves in this argument, what is a number of civilians that would be a price above what you are willing to pay? What are you asking here? A whole number of civilian deaths someone would be okay with in Israel's retaliatory attack on Iran? What's your answer? | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12477 Posts
On October 03 2024 05:05 BlackJack wrote: What are you asking here? A whole number of civilian deaths someone would be okay with in Israel's retaliatory attack on Iran? What's your answer? Mine would be zero, I decided that Israel was wrong based on my perception of what they're trying to do, not based on the method they're using to do it. That is perhaps a bit non responsive because there is no way for Israel to achieve the land grab of West Bank and Gaza with zero civilian casualties, so maybe this becomes a little bit circular. But in my opinion most people function like this, similarly I didn't need to check on how Russia was treating ukrainian civilians before I decided to oppose the invasion of Ukraine. Now I'm being faced with the argument that the people I'm against are just okay with some civilian deaths in pursuit of a goal, and I suspect that's not really what's happening. I think they don't care about those civilians at all, and there is no number of them that Israel could kill where they would change their stance. But the civilians on their side, those civilians they care very deeply about, and the death of any number of them immediately justifies any consequence to the enemy population. Another way to say the same thing is that some of those civilians are humans, and the others aren't. | ||
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Billyboy
2008 Posts
On October 03 2024 05:22 Nebuchad wrote: Mine would be zero, I decided that Israel was wrong based on my perception of what they're trying to do, not based on the method they're using to do it. That is perhaps a bit non responsive because there is no way for Israel to achieve the land grab of West Bank and Gaza with zero civilian casualties, so maybe this becomes a little bit circular. But in my opinion most people function like this, similarly I didn't need to check on how Russia was treating ukrainian civilians before I decided to oppose the invasion of Ukraine. Now I'm being faced with the argument that the people I'm against are just okay with some civilian deaths in pursuit of a goal, and I suspect that's not really what's happening. I think they don't care about those civilians at all, and there is no number of them that Israel could kill where they would change their stance. But the civilians on their side, those civilians they care very deeply about, and the death of any number of them immediately justifies any consequence to the enemy population. Another way to say the same thing is that some of those civilians are humans, and the others aren't. Am I misreading you or do you think this war between Israel and Iran is about the land in Gaza and the Westbank? Is it your belief that Iran would stop attacking Israel if the two state solution happened? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18370 Posts
On October 03 2024 06:47 Billyboy wrote: Am I misreading you or do you think this war between Israel and Iran is about the land in Gaza and the Westbank? Is it your belief that Iran would stop attacking Israel if the two state solution happened? If a comprehensive peace deal were reached between Israel and Palestine that established a real two-state solution, then Iran would lose 2 very valuable proxy forces, and a lot of geopolitical clout in the area. So obviously Iran will oppose any moves toward lasting peace. That said, it isn't very clear to me Iran would be willing or even able to disrupt the situation if *magically* a two-state solution was agreed upon. The reason I emphasized that it would need to appear magically is because we are a very very long way away from Israel and Palestine agreeing that the sky is blue, let alone a way to live together. And even if they start talking, there is going to be plenty of opportunities to disrupt peace negotiations. There will be plenty of radical Palestinians who hate the very idea of peaceful coexistence, and Iran will no doubt keep using them to ensure that never happens. The same way there are plenty of Israelis who hate the idea and will go to extremes to ensure that never happens. Iran is a disruptive force here, but it's not as if Iran is the one forcing Hamas and Hezbollah to fight: all Iran is doing is ensuring there is a good supply of weapons for the Palestinians to keep fighting with. The US is doing a similar thing for the other side... | ||
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Cricketer12
United States14000 Posts
On October 03 2024 06:47 Billyboy wrote: Am I misreading you or do you think this war between Israel and Iran is about the land in Gaza and the Westbank? Is it your belief that Iran would stop attacking Israel if the two state solution happened? Fwiw the Jordanian PM did state this the other night. | ||
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Billyboy
2008 Posts
On October 03 2024 07:22 Acrofales wrote: If a comprehensive peace deal were reached between Israel and Palestine that established a real two-state solution, then Iran would lose 2 very valuable proxy forces, and a lot of geopolitical clout in the area. So obviously Iran will oppose any moves toward lasting peace. That said, it isn't very clear to me Iran would be willing or even able to disrupt the situation if *magically* a two-state solution was agreed upon. The reason I emphasized that it would need to appear magically is because we are a very very long way away from Israel and Palestine agreeing that the sky is blue, let alone a way to live together. And even if they start talking, there is going to be plenty of opportunities to disrupt peace negotiations. There will be plenty of radical Palestinians who hate the very idea of peaceful coexistence, and Iran will no doubt keep using them to ensure that never happens. The same way there are plenty of Israelis who hate the idea and will go to extremes to ensure that never happens. Iran is a disruptive force here, but it's not as if Iran is the one forcing Hamas and Hezbollah to fight: all Iran is doing is ensuring there is a good supply of weapons for the Palestinians to keep fighting with. The US is doing a similar thing for the other side... I don't disagree with much of what you say other than the bolded part. Iran is much more than just the arms supplier, there is a reason high ups in Iran's military keep dying when top level people in Hezbollah and Hamas die. There is also their actions that match Iran's interests more than their own. A clear example of this is when Hezbollah went to Syria to fight with Assad. At the end of the day that is not known so we just both make presumptions, but even under your presumption of them as having the same relationship that Israel has with the US. The talk here is that the US is the only thing keeping Israel from killing everyone in Gaza, whereas it is Iran's open policy to kill everyone in Israel. This is a pretty major difference. On October 03 2024 07:43 Cricketer12 wrote: Fwiw the Jordanian PM did state this the other night. Likely worth when Blinken said the ceasefire is eminent or when Lukashenko says that Russia are actually liberating Donbas. | ||
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Husyelt
United States838 Posts
“The Gaza Health Ministry has put the death at around 42,000. But the medical professionals in the letter estimate the real number is closer to 119,000, or 5.4% of the population. They cite a slew of evidence in this appendix to back up the estimate.” Just making up numbers eh? Or should we trust the times of Israel and the IDF still? "The health care workers, some of whom signed a letter in July that had similar demands, called on the Biden administration to change its current Middle East policy and hold Israel accountable before both U.S. and international law". | ||
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