EPTI felt I was approaching asshole territory so I stepped away.
Going to try and finish reading the thread when I get home.
Dark Tournament Mini Mafia - Page 65
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
I felt I was approaching asshole territory so I stepped away. Going to try and finish reading the thread when I get home. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On December 05 2015 01:19 disformation wrote: I think HtS is null at best. Since NM is starting to gain a bunch of townie brownies and I believe that his read on HtS is godtier, HtS has a pretty high chance of flipping scum. ???????????????????????? This seems contradictory? | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On December 05 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote: And you Rels also agree with me that Trfel is (likely) mafia as well, is there a case on him, and if so, what page? EBWOP - Rels, why is Palmar town? | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Did anyone here play with Alex in his last Newbie game? | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
On December 05 2015 00:34 Rels wrote: How the fuck did you get these links in 2 minutes. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 21:29 Palmar wrote: I wouldn't mind this post except he's apologizing. I wouldn't expect town!Palmar to apologize. I should check some meta on this.Sort of happy I decided to ignore tinfoil damdred is mafia and just roll with him as town. I'm not really putting in the effort I should this game, so sorry about that. I'll make a decision on who I want to lynch tonight or tomorrow. On December 04 2015 22:17 Fidei86 wrote: Okay, so why does this make him mafia? Why couldn't he do this as town?In terms of solving the game I think we need to focus on Alex/NM, Dani/HTS, LS and Trfel. I am convinced one or both of Alex/Dani is Mafia. I do not think LS is in any way cleared by EOD stuff (there was a big switch going on and he was actually already saved when he posted GG). I love LS, but I think even he would have to admit his play so far has been garbage. Trfel is all over the place, and several people have given reasons why he could be scum. His play style is v v different to anything I've come across before. On December 04 2015 22:38 Palmar wrote: It's interesting that Palmar said this, but that he had no read on Fidei86.well if alex is nocturn, and you genuinely believe that, then we should absolutely lynch her, becuase I vastly prefer his filter over hers. On December 04 2015 23:05 Rels wrote: Why would I ever kill Damdred? When I've finally gotten you (presumably town) to be suspicious of Damdred as well, and when Damdred isn't suspicious of me?NK analysis is WIFOM. But Damdred's kill points at Trfel being scum. Any scum team without Trfel would let Trfel pushes at Damdred. Now I'm catching up the 10 pages I didn't read. Also, I'm very confident that LightningStrike is town now. Since the start of Night 1, he's given some very important town tells, which I don't remember him doing as mafia. This means that if he is mafia, someone who knows him well is likely also mafia. On December 04 2015 23:35 Rels wrote: This is simply wrong. Damdred said that he wasn't townreading NocturneMage, but he was clearly resistant to the lynch (as he showed on Day 1). And again, scum doesn't care to keep someone who is townreading them alive if that mafia is going to live for a few days.Yes! Yes yes yes. This is contradictory. Furthermore, this is false: Damdred said: So on the contrary, scum!NM has no reason to no shoot Damdred. He has no reason to particulary shoot him too; but "f NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here." is false. Like, if The Shining is mafia, he knew that he probably wasn't going to die for a day or two, and that's a lot that could potentially change Damdred's read. Damdred's townread doesn't really mean much and it's okay to kill Damdred, and there's fear that Damdred could figure it out. But NocturneMage was at a high chance of getting lynched the very next day, in which case Damdred's read on him at that very moment (null being better than everyone else's read, and Damdred had a lot of influence, and wouldn't lynch a null read) would be really valuable. Basically, NocturneMage would just have to stay null or look a little better and Damdred would likely try to stop the lynch. I already said that this has too many variables and I'm unable to accurately draw a conclusion from the night kill. I believe the reasons by my earlier analysis but I no longer trust the conclusion. If you think I'm scum for being wrong, you should read any one of my town games, because I'm wrong a whole darn lot. On December 04 2015 23:47 Rels wrote: Why do you say this?fidei is super likely town. NM I have a super hard time seeing him attacking HTS heads on if he's not town. But his tone is super not analytical, which is super suspicious to me. I think it's really strange that DoYouHas made a big point of looking at kushm4sta's reads after the lynch, but didn't look D Damdred's reads after the night kill. If anything, I'd expect the opposite. On December 05 2015 00:46 NocturneMage wrote: On the surface, this makes sense.This does not answer my fundamental concern. HTS is a fucking fantastic motivator of coachees as either alignment and when she is mafia it is FUCKING PROVEN SHE MOTIVATES TEAMMATES TO VICTORY REGARDLESS OF TRACK RECORD AS MAFIA. She uses whiskey, she has leadership to pull her teammates together. In her first scum game her roleblocker almost crashed out. She spent fucking 2 hours in QT keeping him in the game and carried her team. In her most previous game as Mafia, she replaces in and immediately comes with a plan for her remaining scummate (they lost a scummer day one) who from my understanding reading that game and respective scum qt (when I was Mafia in newbie 13) is generally a poor scum player. You and her from what I can tell generally have a very good relationship with each other. Therefore my argument of her being able to motivate ANYONE is valid. Even so there is a shittonne of evidence outside her meta that indicates you are mafia. However, Half the Sky has been unable to post for quite some time now (~36 hours, I believe?). So NocturneMage is arguing that Half the Sky is coaching and motivating LightningStrike but doesn't have the energy to actually play the game herself. Unless NocturneMage is arguing that the coaching stopped at the end of Day 1 (which is still really strange, given how much LightningStrike's play changed after the lynch), I'm having trouble seeing how he can honestly think this. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
##vote Half the Sky | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 05 2015 02:40 NocturneMage wrote: ???????????????????????? This seems contradictory? That was a recap of my last stance on HtS, you know, from the quote you have conveniently removed from my post. :p So to try to clarify that post: My last thought on HtS was the first bold part, shown in my quote. But now I am starting to believe NM, which leaves me to believe the second bold part. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 05 2015 02:50 Fidei86 wrote: Did anyone here play with Alex in his last Newbie game? Yes. I also played with him in NSM13, where he was scum. So if you have a question, please feel free to ask.  Also: super lol @ Palmar =D | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On December 05 2015 03:15 disformation wrote: Yes. I also played with him in NSM13, where he was scum. So if you have a question, please feel free to ask. Also: super lol @ Palmar =D In the last game I played with him he was like a mild-mannered small town lawyer (he was cop). This game he comes out like a Jack Russell on meth. It's just so different. But he did say after our game he wanted to work on getting his reads listened to. Was wondering how it compares to the last game. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 05 2015 03:14 Fidei86 wrote: My first post responded to comments in the thread since I went to sleep. Half the Sky didn't post.@Trfel you made a big long post (for reasons?) that barely mentions HTS except to say you don't think she was coaching LS after she AFK'd, then eight minutes later you've had time to read and consider her whole filter and decided she's Mafia? Huh? I already looked through Half the Sky's filter, I made a really convenient read progression analysis that stated how her reads changed, why they changed, and had links so I could check posts for more info if necessary. I had already looked through this and found the things I thought made her likely mafia, I just wanted to confirm them when I was rested and had more time. I did so. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 05 2015 03:18 Fidei86 wrote: In the last game I played with him he was like a mild-mannered small town lawyer (he was cop). This game he comes out like a Jack Russell on meth. It's just so different. But he did say after our game he wanted to work on getting his reads listened to. Was wondering how it compares to the last game. In NSM17 he was also pretty mild-mannered, logical, methodical and put a lot of work into the game. I think he had one of the longest filters overall. So yeah, he is more aggressive this game. In NSM13 where he was the godfather his filter was 3 pages long. We lynched him day 3. He was barely posting and interacting with ppl at all. Link to his filter from that game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/490503-newbie-student-mafia-xiii?user=NocturneMage So despite replacing into this N1 and claiming not to have much time to play the first two days, his filter is already nearly double the amount of his whole mafia game. So... he either is a lot more aggressive this game, because he is really 100% on HtS and wants to lynch her, or I dunno, he decided to go balls to the walls as mafia this time. I think the first one is more likely. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 05 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote: And you Rels also agree with me that Trfel is (likely) mafia as well, is there a case on him, and if so, what page? No case. Look for some posts I made this afternoon | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
I don't think he's likely town. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 05 2015 03:27 disformation wrote: In NSM17 he was also pretty mild-mannered, logical, methodical and put a lot of work into the game. I think he had one of the longest filters overall. So yeah, he is more aggressive this game. In NSM13 where he was the godfather his filter was 3 pages long. We lynched him day 3. He was barely posting and interacting with ppl at all. Link to his filter from that game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/490503-newbie-student-mafia-xiii?user=NocturneMage So despite replacing into this N1 and claiming not to have much time to play the first two days, his filter is already nearly double the amount of his whole mafia game. So... he either is a lot more aggressive this game, because he is really 100% on HtS and wants to lynch her, or I dunno, he decided to go balls to the walls as mafia this time. I think the first one is more likely. Also look at how much his first posts in his mafia game are super awkward and "no clue what to actually say here". I think he enjoys playing town far more than scum. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
LOOOOL IM DYING | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
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Rels
France13467 Posts
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