EPTDark Tournament Mini Mafia - Page 135
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
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LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
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Rels
France13467 Posts
will log in and wait for you all | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
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LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
http://www.twitch.tv/stardomtv/v/30176984 | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 16 2015 20:58 Palmar wrote: gg thanks for carry you are welcome.  | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
wifom shots are generally bad btw. It's super tempting to do them all the time, but still. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 17 2015 00:52 Palmar wrote: wifom shots are generally bad btw. It's super tempting to do them all the time, but still. yeah. shooting you n2 was not good. couldnt get myself to shoot the shining later on cause i was super sure at least 1 person would throw his reads at me if i did that. =\ not sure if that would have been better/worse than fealing with him though, because i was pretty much unable to do so... a coach would have been great for those things. but the only thing i can do now is to hope i learn from these mistakes and do better next time. | ||
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
On December 15 2015 08:10 disformation wrote: Still don't think I'm gonna be happy when I see my next scum pm. =/ Just double bus and everything will be ok. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 17 2015 11:47 MoosyDoosy wrote: Just double bus and everything will be ok. Well, if I was good at bussing this game would have gone much smoother.  | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
The rationale is very simple. It's much easier for people to stay on target than it is to step back and reassess. People are generally very biased to their own beliefs. Let's take an example: Disfo is mafia. LS is town Palmartown thinks LS is mafia Damdredtown thinks Disfo is mafia If you make the wifom shot (Palmar) you're hoping the following happens: Damdred steps back, realizes he's been wrong the entire time and Palmar must have gotten shot for being right on LS. Damdred changes his mind and starts thinking LS is mafia If you make the simple shot (Damdred) you're hoping the following happens: Palmar keeps tunneling LS without thinking too much about the NK In general (of course this is very situation specific), you want to bet on people being stubborn and self-righteous. It is extremely difficult to recognize when you've been wrong and reassess, it's one of the hardest things to do in mafia. I don't blame anyone for sticking to their original beliefs when in doubt. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 17 2015 22:55 Palmar wrote: It wasn't all bad, and of course sometimes you need to shoot for wifom, but as a rule of thumb, people tend to do it too often. The rationale is very simple. It's much easier for people to stay on target than it is to step back and reassess. People are generally very biased to their own beliefs. Let's take an example: Disfo is mafia. LS is town Palmartown thinks LS is mafia Damdredtown thinks Disfo is mafia If you make the wifom shot (Palmar) you're hoping the following happens: Damdred steps back, realizes he's been wrong the entire time and Palmar must have gotten shot for being right on LS. Damdred changes his mind and starts thinking LS is mafia If you make the simple shot (Damdred) you're hoping the following happens: Palmar keeps tunneling LS without thinking too much about the NK In general (of course this is very situation specific), you want to bet on people being stubborn and self-righteous. It is extremely difficult to recognize when you've been wrong and reassess, it's one of the hardest things to do in mafia. I don't blame anyone for sticking to their original beliefs when in doubt. hmm... haven't exactly looked at it from this angle. maybe because I am prone to waffle about and am ususally not that stubborn about my reads. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On December 17 2015 22:55 Palmar wrote: It wasn't all bad, and of course sometimes you need to shoot for wifom, but as a rule of thumb, people tend to do it too often. The rationale is very simple. It's much easier for people to stay on target than it is to step back and reassess. People are generally very biased to their own beliefs. Let's take an example: Disfo is mafia. LS is town Palmartown thinks LS is mafia Damdredtown thinks Disfo is mafia If you make the wifom shot (Palmar) you're hoping the following happens: Damdred steps back, realizes he's been wrong the entire time and Palmar must have gotten shot for being right on LS. Damdred changes his mind and starts thinking LS is mafia If you make the simple shot (Damdred) you're hoping the following happens: Palmar keeps tunneling LS without thinking too much about the NK In general (of course this is very situation specific), you want to bet on people being stubborn and self-righteous. It is extremely difficult to recognize when you've been wrong and reassess, it's one of the hardest things to do in mafia. I don't blame anyone for sticking to their original beliefs when in doubt. Yeah this is completely correct. Basically in 99% of the situations where the game is intense and you don't have to worry about medic dodges and role stuff like that you need to shoot: 1) People who are on the right track 2) People who are confirmed town 3) People who are prone to be good analysts When you leave people who are right alive you expose yourself to -- well... getting lynched, because they are right and therefore it's even more likely they are being listened over other cases (that are not right). Also what Palmar says in the last paragraph is extremely true. Sure, sometimes your WIFOM shot pays off but it is true that people tend to believe themselves over other people. You will almost always get more payoff for shooting a guy who is right than shooting someone else and try to wifom the guy who is right into not believing himself. Example from this game (although not only based on NK's -- but still relevant). Why i considered your bus on FF incorrect play was not because of you bussed. It was because of in what situation you bussed. Trfel, the guy who was pushing a lynch on your scummate was the other lynch candidate. When you decided to lynch FF over Trfel the situation becomes this: 1) suddenly Trfel is almost confirmed town 2) you still have to deal with people like Shining -- besides Trfel, who now, instead of being dead, has very much towncredit 3) you lost a teammate -- instead of going into D4 in 5-2 situation, you suddenly are in 6-1, the town gained a mislynch instead of this: 1) people who were suspicious of Trfel look as bad as you do 2) You can deal with Shining (or some other person who is a threat to you) by shooting them in the face instead of ALSO having to deal one more guy who is almost confirmed town Basically, in my opinion the cons heavily outweigh the pros here. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
and thanks for all the post game advise guys. <3 | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
I find guidelines like these to be extremely helpful to my play as both factions. The thought process of: "I feel like I want to do X in this situation, but the convention says I should do Y. I better be damn sure X is the correct play because there must be a reason Y exists". | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
Maybe I should have checked out some guides about playing scum, I feel I am not very aware on what conventions there are for that. xD | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On December 05 2015 22:11 Palmar wrote: I don't know if I'm going to do much more today, it's weekend. Based on reading HtS and NM yesterday, I'm going to leave my vote on her. I think it's the right call. I won't be here at the deadline (or well... I won't be here from many hours before the deadline until tomorrow), so meh. I'll check my phone and such. If anyone wants my attention for something special just shout, I'll hopefully notice. I still think this is a reasonably good lynch. NM seems kinda towny and he's very sure about HtS, and her entire tone is very very bland as I talked about. I am again more suspicious of fidei and trfel than I was previously, with NM moving into the probably town column. I actually read something FF wrote that made me think he's town too, but since I can't even remember what it was, it can't have been super significant. Still for now this is good enough. I have yet to read FF, DYH and I think some other people, but I'll have to do that during the night or tomorrow. Good luck guys. On August 29 2015 19:31 Palmar wrote: Do we do the AFK vote today? it's weekend so don't expect much from me. On May 11 2015 18:56 Palmar wrote: It was weekend and I was hungover. This year is the worst. Everyone is turning 30 so always party and I'm old. On April 11 2015 01:48 Palmar wrote: you know what. It's almost weekend so I'm just gonna fuck off. I'm going to pretend no one is voting me or scumreading me and ignore you all because you've all proven you're bad. So what I'll do instead is at my own leisure, if I feel like it, drop some reads and hard hitting analysis in the thread that will probably go over your tiny heads anyway. No more rage. I'm playing single player mafia now. On January 31 2015 20:35 Palmar wrote: No pls civ and weekend and Super Bowl tomo and various other excuses. On January 31 2015 01:29 Palmar wrote: btw it's weekend (yes I stayed home because of a kid with chickenpox today, so weekend one day early) so don't expect any magic from me today. I still trust _most_ of my reads. On December 01 2014 01:09 Palmar wrote: I don't know. maybe you should wagon me just in case. It's still weekend and I'm not really finding the time to filterdive. I'm always shit on weekends. On August 02 2014 07:15 Palmar wrote: it's weekend btw, so I'm going to be away and stuff. I'm in the middle of nowhere. On July 12 2014 20:59 Palmar wrote: we did it again! started on a weekend! Disclaimer: I'm hungover and will get mad. On September 29 2013 08:04 Palmar wrote: Not now, I seriously thought we were beyond starting games on weekends, it's dumb. But later. On March 23 2014 08:23 Palmar wrote: I don't know if I like it, he was on the correct wagons if I recall correctly, and I vaguely remember him saying something that made me think he's town. I haven't re-checked his filter to confirm that I was basing my townread on him on something good or just a thing. I did point out to him that he was being like far less supertown than in the last game, but I'm not entirely sure that makes him scum because his history suggests that being useful is the anomaly rather than the rule with him. It's weekend, reading filters is hard work. | ||
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