2024 GSL Code S Season 2

RO16 Group D Preview: Solar, DRG, NightMare, and ByuN

Thursday, May 16 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Wax

With Group B having given us a stark reminder of just how unpredictable GSL Code S can be, we move on to Group D (swapping order with Group C in a minor scheduling change) where the four contenders were already projected to be closely matched.



Solar is the ostensible favorite in the group, having recently won the Code S championship in 2023's Season 3. It was a vindicating career moment for a player whose peak ability had rarely been in question—just his capacity for wielding those abilities in the biggest matches. However, so far, winning Code S hasn't turned out to be the transformative moment Solar might have hoped for.

Since winning Code S, Solar has reeled off a string of good-but-not great results, finishing top eight at DH Atlanta, top twelve at IEM Katowice, and even suffering RO16 elimination in the previous season of Code S (considering that Maru, Reynor, and Dark have gone out in the first round over the last three seasons, it's hard to hold this too strongly against him). Still, with 2023 having been a career year where Solar reached the final four of Gamers8 and won Code S, it's too early to say all of those accomplishments were a flash in the pan. There's still plenty of time for Solar to get back on the winning track, with the trio of Code S Season 2, DH Dallas, and the Esports World Cup coming up. If he can take lessons from both his successes and failures, then maybe we will soon see the best version of Solar yet.

Solar selected DongRaeGu as his initial opponent, which seems quite reasonable considering the old school Zerg's recent performances. After an inspired late-career resurgence in 2021-2022 where he became a regular in the Code S playoffs, it seems like DRG is finally starting to feel his age. 2023 saw him barely make an impact in any of the major tournaments, and he looked like a player winding down to his second and final career conclusion.

After seeing soO advance from Group B and watching TY deal Maru a rare late-game TvT loss in Group A, I'm sure some fans are tempted to extend DRG the benefit of the doubt here. The supposedly washed up veterans in Code S have continuously demonstrated that they can never be fully counted out, and DRG himself proved that in 2023's Season 3 by upsetting ByuN to win a surprise RO8 berth. On the other hand, DRG's performance in the last season of Code S (eliminated with losses to SHIN and soO) was truly dismal. One of the strengths DRG used to pride himself on was his ability to stay composed in offline matches, but in that group, he totally fell apart after making some catastrophic early-game ZvZ errors. Maybe DRG will have taken that embarrassing showing to heart and have come back more prepared this time around, but I can't help but worry that he's already mentally checked out.

On the other hand, NightMare's recent performances suggest he's more locked in than ever. The unassuming Protoss had a quiet 2023, finishing RO16 in all three Code S Seasons while failing to make the IEM Katowice cut. However, since the recent balance patch, he's been on heater in online tournaments, quietly climbing the Aligulac.com standings to become the #4 ranked Protoss in the world (MaxPax, herO, and Classic above him, Stats, ShoWTimE, and Creator beneath him).

Even though most of the games played during NightMare's climb were in online cups, I've long believed that online cup play is a strong indicator of future offline success for most players (Rogues need not apply). In fact, NightMare had a pretty respectable showing in the last season of Code S, finishing third place in his RO16 group (win vs Creator, two losses to GuMiho, 3-4 overall map record). While NightMare hasn't been able to run a full online gauntlet and actually win a weekly cup, he's starting to pick up more BO3 wins against some of the stronger cup regulars including Cure, GuMiho, and even Clem. After being eliminated in third place in his last three Code S RO16 groups, this might be the season NightMare finally gets over the hump and reaches the RO8.

ByuN rounds out Group D, entering the tournament with the honor of being the last player picked during the group selections. ByuN's Code S performances have lagged behind his showings in other tournaments since his return from the military (only a single RO4 finish), but going last in the group selections indicates his peers still have a healthy amount of respect for him.

ByuN's run in the previous season was fairly typical of his Code S experiences in his post military career. He dominated his RO16 group, using his superior mechanics and multi-tasking to steamroll GuMiho and Creator in very one-sided matches. However, it was an entirely different story in the RO8, where he met his match in one of the true title contenders in herO, and dropped the ball against a very beatable opponent (at least theoretically) in Classic. On one hand, I want to say RO16-mode ByuN will show up to this group and wipe the floor with everyone else, but on the other hand, the string of RO16 upsets in the last few seasons of Code S makes me wonder…

Predictions

If not for the insanity of Group C, I'd say this group was the most difficult to predict. NightMare has been encroaching on RO8 territory for a while now, and his recent uptick in form might be what finally pushes him over the edge. And, despite all my reservations about DRG after his pitiful showing in the last season of GSL, I have to admit his long-term track record after returning from the military shows he is a player with a very high floor to his play. Considering that Solar and ByuN never reached levels of GSL hyper-dominance akin to Maru, or herO and Dark at their best, they might be slowed or even felled by such thorny opponents..

I think we're due for a bold prediction here (or not so bold, if you're one of those fans who watches all the online cups), and I'll say NightMare capitalizes on ByuN's inconsistency and advances alongside Solar.

Solar 2 - 1 DongRaeGu
ByuN 2 - 0 NightMare
Solar 2 - 1 ByuN
NightMare 2 - 0 DongRaeGu
NightMare 2 - 1 ByuN

Solar and NightMare to advance.