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On December 05 2015 03:37 Rels wrote:
Trfel: because if he's scum pushing town he will be killed as soon as Hts flips town. So why isn't he scum pushing scum?
Except for the activity, NocturneMage's filter seems really bad.
I'm not sure how to reconcile the two. I'm sure that if you make that many posts in that short of a time, town would make some errors. But he seems to forget who he's scumreading, and is just throwing reasons to scumread everyone. The way he's so focused on randomly (imo nonsensically) pushing four people (with read progressions that don't make sense) and completely ignores everyone else without discussing them at all doesn't feel towny at all.
But that's not really mafia motivation, and is probably unreliable. But so is activity.
I think that townreading NocturneMage for activity alone is really bad here. He played one scumgame and hated it, and now he's in this game and is pushing things really aggressively and posting a ton. How could he be scum here?
Hm... I absolutely hated my first scum game and barely played at all. In my second scum game, I destroyed town and was a top townread for basically everyone most of the game. There are other factors too, like he finally gets to play with Half the Sky, he's clearly excited to play mafia again (the game, not alignment), that could potentially cause the higher activity as mafia.
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NocturneMage read progression
+ Show Spoiler +[ignoring the first series of posts] Trfel's case on NocturneMage is terrible (no conclusion, tone seems to suggest Trfel is town, but town does that to their scumreads sometimes) Confident in two of the mafiaHalf the Sky and Fidei86 are mafia (Half the Sky for meta, voting analysis, mafia motive / Fidei86 for being different from his previous games) Sort of suspicious of Palmar (can't follow him) Suspicious of Fidei86 for soft-pushing Half the SkySuspicious of Trfel for reversing NocturneMage readExplanation of the mafia motivation for Half the Sky lynching kushm4sta instead of LightningStrikeAssociation between Fidei86 and Half the SkyFrustrated about being scumread (when he's under no threat of lynch?), no more scumread on Fidei86 (why???)Trfel is insane or mafiaLightningStrike has a bad filter and his End of Day could easily come from scum(unrelated note, NocturneMage is using a ton of meta, often incorrectly applied, and then yelling at people for using meta... will check NocturneMage's meta use from previous town games, if it's not high, then meta suggests he is mafia  ) LightningStrike made a dumb postFrustrated with LightningStrike's lack of scumreadsThinks that Fidei86 may not be mafia because he posted about associations between Half the Sky and LightningStrikeNonsensical post about LightningStrike (draws conclusions from nowhere, interprets things that he thinks LightningStrike is saying with no reason to do so) Doesn't understand a LightningStrike postCurrently has Trfel and Fidei86 as scumreads (other than Half the Sky and LightningStrike) (Fidei86 for association and overall gameplay, Trfel for constant usage of terrible points to case people) Gets mad at LightningStrike for not understanding/accepting his argument about why Half the Sky is mafia (huh???? He's scumreading LightningStrike) More convinced that LightningStrike is mafiaTop scum reads Half the Sky, Fidei86, LightningStrike, Trfel, needs to re-examine DoYouHas and PalmarLeaning mafia on Trfel, says that LightningStrike is mafia because of bad filter and associations with Half the SkyStrongly thinks LightningStrike is mafia (says he will lynch LightningStrike after Half the Sky) Scumreads LightningStrike because Half the Sky could motivate him to play, but tons of non-associative reasons tooSays LightningStrike's post is bad, says that he wants someone to kill himself (?? LightningStrike is mafia, though??), asks a question to LightningStrike (but LightningStrike is mafia??)
On the surface, this seems really bad. But that's "objectively bad", not mafia bad. Lunch, then a look for mafia motivation, and a look at meta.
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Then Hts is scum regardless of nm s alignment right ?
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On December 05 2015 03:51 Rels wrote:
Then Hts is scum regardless of nm s alignment right ? Yes, I think so.
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On December 05 2015 03:44 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 03:37 Rels wrote:
Trfel: because if he's scum pushing town he will be killed as soon as Hts flips town. So why isn't he scum pushing scum? Except for the activity, NocturneMage's filter seems really bad. I'm not sure how to reconcile the two. I'm sure that if you make that many posts in that short of a time, town would make some errors. But he seems to forget who he's scumreading, and is just throwing reasons to scumread everyone. The way he's so focused on randomly (imo nonsensically) pushing four people (with read progressions that don't make sense) and completely ignores everyone else without discussing them at all doesn't feel towny at all. But that's not really mafia motivation, and is probably unreliable. But so is activity. I think that townreading NocturneMage for activity alone is really bad here. He played one scumgame and hated it, and now he's in this game and is pushing things really aggressively and posting a ton. How could he be scum here? Hm... I absolutely hated my first scum game and barely played at all. In my second scum game, I destroyed town and was a top townread for basically everyone most of the game. There are other factors too, like he finally gets to play with Half the Sky, he's clearly excited to play mafia again (the game, not alignment), that could potentially cause the higher activity as mafia.
Hmmm... not that you aren't right here, but I can't see scum!NM posting something like this:
On December 05 2015 00:25 NocturneMage wrote:
I also heavily believe LS is Mafia. He's going out after Dani.
If Dani flips town, I am giving her my next two weeks' salary and I'll take a mislynch because I am that fucking bad at understanding someone I know extremely well in real life.
There is zero fucking chance she is town. Zero.
Rels, I can understand you being hesitant because I'm not being "analytical" but this is HTS we are talking about here. She is a weasel when she is Mafia.
Don't think scum!NM would just go for the yolo misslynch on town!HtS, for the fun, and then just get lynched in return...
unless both are scum. That way he would get tons of town cred if we lynch her today and she flips red.
*scratches head*
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I think that NocturneMage is mafia.
He hasn't been really posting for that long, which makes it hard to pin him on long-term mafia motivations. But short-term, it looks like he's playing a momentum style of mafia.
If you don't know what that is, it's how I like play as mafia, because it's the most fun (the term is my own in origin, though others may use it before to mean the same thing, or possibly something else, idk ). Basically the point is to be pushing people so much (either in force or in number of pushes or both) that everyone's so busy with that that they don't stop to realize that you're mafia. The characteristics of this are clearly shown in NocturneMage's play.
- Very confident reads/play
- Lots of posts pushing people
- Few/no townreads, little/no interaction with townreads (the second point doesn't need to be true but often happens)
- (possibly) excessive emotions (especially anger)
- Logical gaps in reads, ignores ways that scumreads could be town
- Portrays themself as a "holy crusade to lynch mafia"
Based on this, the logical/emotional inconsistencies in NocturneMage's play, and the "four people are scum, everyone else doesn't exist" read progression, I think that NocturneMage is mafia.
Thoughts?
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On December 05 2015 04:39 Trfel wrote:I think that NocturneMage is mafia. He hasn't been really posting for that long, which makes it hard to pin him on long-term mafia motivations. But short-term, it looks like he's playing a momentum style of mafia. If you don't know what that is, it's how I like play as mafia, because it's the most fun (the term is my own in origin, though others may use it before to mean the same thing, or possibly something else, idk ). Basically the point is to be pushing people so much (either in force or in number of pushes or both) that everyone's so busy with that that they don't stop to realize that you're mafia. The characteristics of this are clearly shown in NocturneMage's play. - Very confident reads/play
- Lots of posts pushing people
- Few/no townreads, little/no interaction with townreads (the second point doesn't need to be true but often happens)
- (possibly) excessive emotions (especially anger)
- Logical gaps in reads, ignores ways that scumreads could be town
- Portrays themself as a "holy crusade to lynch mafia"
Based on this, the logical/emotional inconsistencies in NocturneMage's play, and the "four people are scum, everyone else doesn't exist" read progression, I think that NocturneMage is mafia. Thoughts? Sorry for the double post, but I should explain this better.
First, the "momentum mafia" part of this post is the least important part. It's also very subjective, and I don't care to debate it. I'm not saying that these characteristics always come from mafia. However, I think that it is mafia indicative for NocturneMage because they're all so different from his town play.
The other points were described by the read progression I posted earlier. You should be able to see them yourself in that. The Fidei86 read progression is really strange as far as a logical read goes, and the LightningStrike posts show emotional responses that don't make sense from town. I only commented on a few things, there are many more things than I mentioned.
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On December 05 2015 00:30 LightningStrike wrote:NM read my past games please? It will make you understand me as a player better O_o I had linked you some of my past games(including all my scum games):
Scrolled through these while eatings.
Observations:
You don't like being scum.
Your filter is really short when scum.
Your latest scum game (the first one on top) was kinda depressing. =p
Tone wise I'd rather put you on the town side of things.
But I don't feel like I really want to look into these games too hard, when we also have a game going on. 
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Canada11355 Posts
deadline isn't today right?
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Canada11355 Posts
nope tomorrow ok I'll read slowly. I have like 150 posts to catch up on
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FF are you here? Been playing some LoL games honestly and won 2 games out of 2 so I happy on that.
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Canada11355 Posts
Lol i will be at work soon I'm kidding myself if i think I'm gonna do stuff when fallout is staring at me in the face
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deadline is tomorrow at 23 GMT.
back to catching up. also love how scum Trfel is taking my argument out of context in post 1287, the coaching very likely would have existed through the end of cycle day 1, HTS is capable of giving advice beyond her participation (as in general coaching and/or motivation a good example is the whole whisky bullshit, it's just automatic after the first mislynch) and with the exception of LS's list post, his gameplay has still been mafia motivated, not giving reads, not really pushing anyone (except scumming Trfel and then dropping it) and then when I try to discuss HTS, he's like saying the exact same reason I'm voting her and then having her as null, it's basically saying he's not committing to something and I know last he was townreading me, don't recall him saying "NM is town but wrong on HTS" or taking stances that some of us can easily flesh out, aside from that list post.
also saying my mafia play is like his in post 1301/1308 is just bad. town should be confident in their reads if they want to push lynches, I mean look at rayn (my exp from newbie 14), he just sauntered about, cursing about probably worse than I have as he tried to push his lynches, you have Shining this game whose tone comes off the same way - not quite as emotional or off-putting, but pretty straightforward, the holy crusade largely comes from me vs Dani, that is more personal than anything and at worst should not be alignment indicative, if you meant my intro I already explained that to Rels and it's somewhere in my filter.
tldr - comparing me to you in post 1301 is just a poor argument and you're finding bad excuses for scumreads just like you did with my predecessor.
resuming from page 25.
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ebwop - ls not taking many stances is mafia motivated because when he flips we can't sort out his teammates (or assuming an LS/HTS/+1 team) the final teammate.
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Shining is almost certainly town (just skimmed his filter), about as straightforward as it gets. The questions to LS/Trfel are spot on as it comes and the reasoning flows. Definite strong town read for me.
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On December 05 2015 07:09 Fecalfeast wrote:
Lol i will be at work soon I'm kidding myself if i think I'm gonna do stuff when fallout is staring at me in the face
Damn 
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Okay. Heads up:
As per my pre game excuse I won't have time to play tomorrow. I am at my parents' in the afternoon and go to a friends' straight from there. Will miss the deadline by an hour or something.
I might get a few phone posts in here and there, but don't count on it.
Will be here for another like 4 hours, so if you have questions: shoot now before you regret it.
So I am currently at:
town
Palmar
Rels
The Shining
town leans
NoctuneMage
FF
LightningStrike
scum
Half the Sky
DoYouHas
wtf bananaboat
Trfel
Super sleeping on and need to read the filter
Fidei86
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disformation is also probably town, gameplay is similar to the last, read development is mostly there at least on his key reads. Not seeing anything off voting-wise.
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EPT
