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Ok, here is my big analysis of GhandiEagle.
So his first posts were mostly talking about nothing, this one is where really starts talking about the game:
On July 12 2015 04:46 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
Right now its basically impossible to read into anything effectively, so Day 1 we might as well just flush out all of the lurkers, which I may work on when I get off work in a couple hours.
It is very much possible to get reads effectively day 1, that's how we got our first mafia. Everyone knows this. It is harder, true, but you can get decent reads. If you are scum however, people getting reads is the last thing you want. You would rather just have them kill some lurking townie than risk having them read people and figure out who is mafia.
He also says we should "flush out" all the lurkers, which he posts about again here:
On July 12 2015 12:06 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
I'm strictly against considering policy lynches this early in the day. I'm saying we should get everyone to start talking because lurkers quickly become scapegoats, especially in newbie games where lurkers are often people who are just unsure of what to say.
He says that he wants to get everyone to talk, but no one to make reads. This supports my theory that he wants to avoid having people try to find mafia and make reads and instead just lynch someone with no one looking around
He is then afk until just 2 hours after lynch, and fails to make a vote. It might me IRL stuff, but it is kind of convenient to pop up so soon after the lycnh.
He then says this after night is over:
On July 14 2015 07:54 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
Surprised they actually went after Kelsier. At least it confirms my worry that he jumped on Sulfurus as scum to try and assure his own safety; I was just about to post about that, especially since I had a totally unjustifiable scum meta read on him.
By the way, TJH isn't scum to me. He was an early bird on the Sulfurus scum train. That won't be enough to make me think he's town, but it is enough to give me pause before lynching him Day 2. Not ready to jump on that train.
This has been discuessed before, but just to rehash: TJH only said he thought sulfurus was scum after he was tagged. He also posted him as his second scum list, which seems to be a way for mafia to get creds in case their scum buddies flip. Now, ghandi might have just interepreted TJH wrong, at this point this is not that incriminating. We'll get back to it.
So after that he post his case on MoosyDoosy:
On July 14 2015 08:09 GhandiEAGLE wrote:I think Moosy is either playing a really abysmal town, or is scum. I'm still not sold enough to vote (I realize I say that a lot), but honestly constantly deflecting suspicion with sarcasm. Despite that sarcasm, he doesn't do shit for the town. Show nested quote +On July 12 2015 02:27 MoosyDoosy wrote:On July 12 2015 01:49 TJHuggins wrote:My initial reads so far is that i am town leaning on Fidei. I like the things he said in relation to spamming, and I think that him relating the perspective to a previous game where he was town feels like he's looking at the game from the perspective of a town. When he responded to HTS regarding talking about anti-spam being easy, he seems genuine. Or maybe it's just because I like his writing. No clue. My initial scum read is Grokken. It's nothing all that strong but I'm getting a wierd feeling about the things he's posted. To me it feels like he is trying to find ways to participate and seem town by chiming in now and again but really has no clue what to write about. On July 11 2015 09:36 Grokken wrote:On July 11 2015 09:32 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
My blood sense is telling me to lynch everyone who knows what theyre doing We should listen to this guy, he seems to know what he is doing. On July 11 2015 13:27 Grokken wrote:On July 11 2015 10:44 NydusHerMain wrote:
Hi, back home. You guys are fucking boring me.
##Vote: Fidei
I don't like the way this guy posts early Can you elaborate on this? What in particular is it that you don't like? I think that one sentence posts that appear to contribute to the game and don't really offer anything just kind of irk me the wrong way. I guess it's worth noting he did write that thing about Dota as well which was also one sentence but that's neither here nor there when it comes to the game I think. When I went back and read the post about him showing off his dota stats that actually reads to me a bit more towny now that I think about it, so not really sure. just an initial read. I don't agree with this but let's see what Ghandi says. Why did this happen? It made little sense to ask me, other than I was one of the few early proactive people on the thread and it would make sense to get me on his side. He had no real reason to ask me specifically here, and no real reason to believe that my opinions would hold much weight. Show nested quote +On July 12 2015 02:53 MoosyDoosy wrote:On July 12 2015 02:32 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
Grokken's first post seems pretty innocuous to me, and even if there was something sinister behind it, reading someone at all in the first few posts creates poor conclusions, imo.
Second post there is sketchier to me, in that it seems serious in its attempts to prod the town, despite not actually bringing up any discussion that will lead to a conclusion. That's a little smelly to me. That said, it's tiny enough that it could fly either way.
Day 1 reads are all luck anyways :| Exactly what I was thinking. His first post seems to be more of a first page banter post. The second one is asking for clarification although as you say, it leads nowhere. But then again, newer players have a tendency to ask for clarification without having a drive behind it. Any thoughts on the suspicion of you Ghandi? :3 There it is again. No reason to be prodding me except that he might suspect that I'm scum (unlikely at that point in the thread), or he's trying to deflect conversations, looking like he moves conversation forward, without actually doing so. Then he didn't vote, which I didn't either because I forgot about the separate voting thread. So this is excusable because I suck :/ Also, he constantly uses emoticons, which I distrust by nature and generally indicate self-consciousness (I'm not kidding it often points to mafia). Never trust an emoticon. The rest of his filter is absolute trash, by the way. Nothing helpful at all; all of his posts constantly criticize other people for suspecting him, while offering literally zero content to push the town forward. If he isn't scum, I'd still policy lynch him Day 3 since based_HTS gave us plenty of time. I need meaningful contribution from Moosey or I'm not likely moving off of my vote without heavy evidence on someone else. ##Vote: MoosyDoosy
Now, this post is kind of weak. His biggest arguments is that MD keeps mentioning him (which isn't indictive of anything really), the fact that MD didn't vote (which he didn't either), and the fact that he uses emoticons (what???). And he seems to completely ignore the vote, which is a pretty big townlean for MD. He also votes for this, but states that he dosen't think he is mafia. Why would you want someone that is not mafia dead?
Later he posts his big list:
On July 14 2015 08:45 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
1) Fidei.
Town read; pushing me for my admittedly shitty posting when there was no real consideration of it earlier is pretty darn town.
2) WonnaPlay
Lurk City, hard to know if spooked or noob, but sketchy either way. Because its a noob game all lurkers basically stay in neutral range, instead of my usual neutral-lurker range.
3) N00bking.
Neutral; dont like his filter but he voted for sulfurus, so the two cancel each other out.
4) Silentwarrior.
Shit-tier read list, bandwagonning, lurking. Didn't vote Moosy N1, so neutral or bad scum imo.
5) NHM/Tictoc
Awful posting but apparently had an excuse so mleh. Tictoc says he's followed the game, and showed that he was present in the thread, but has yet to give anything meaningful to the game, so he's on my naughty list until something comes up. Most lurkers commit, but he's already poked his head recently.
6) Moosy
Shit town, prodding him to post better hopefully he actually does, otherwise lynch for derailing conversation. No more discussion on him because its also just derailing now. C'mon man shape up.
7) TJ Huggins
Bandwagonned on Moosy, pointed a lot of fingers, but generally been pretty baseless. This isn't quite a 180 of what I said earlier, because I said in my post that he wasn't scum to me. That hasn't changed; I should have clarified that I didn't think he was that innocent either, he's high up on my neutral list. Just not enough yet to vote on him.
8) Grokken.
Seems pretty sketchy to me. Need to chug through filter again, but voting on me even before Fidei did just feels like someone trying to stand out and be opportunistic. He didn't start the attack, so he doesn't assume culpability if I get lynched and I'm town. He also can't hold onto an accusation.
That said, he didn't fight Sulfurus being lynched; he voted Moosy but didn't protest Sulfurus' death. That doesn't mean, however, that he's not my scum read. Because he is.
9) HtS
Untouchable right now. No fun there :<
10) scottblahblahnumbers
The WORST kind of lurker, if he was maf, I'd be willing to bet he'd be more active, especially since he's not on the noob list; who plays mafia multiple times without wanting to actually participate? For that reasoning he's really town to me, but damn I hate how he's basically not in the game. It's frustrating.
Now his tone about TJH is less townlean. This was after everyone pointed about the suspicoins of TJH. So, even if TJH and Ghandi isn't scumteam, he would want to appease to town and follow its general ideas and thoughts. So when he says something and town says another, he would naturally want to change what he says to fit what towns says as mafia. He tries to downplay this change by stating it himself, and saying it's not that big of a change of heart. But really, everyone can see his reversal of opinion.
Something also interesting is that he says scott is town, despite saying he is a lurker. Somehow, being an experienced player makes it ok for being a lurker. This reasoning is just strange, and gets stranger with his next post:
On July 14 2015 08:46 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
To sum up
Scummer read is hardest on Grokken,
Town for me definitively is HtS, Scott, and Fidei.
Too many people posting too little (me included, before ~20 minutes ago). Need more activity please.
Now he says that scott is in his top 3 town reads. This is when scott had like 3 posts in game, none of which had any content at all in them. So why have someone like that as top 3 town? This leads me to believe that maybe the scumteam is Scott-Ghandi. TJH-Ghandi is also very likely, but he seems to be unusually positive about scott for the amount he has written.
In conclusion, Ghandis posts leads me to believe that he is mafia. I urge the rest of you to also examine him and make your own conclusion.
Vote: GhandiEAGLE
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I think the lynch today should be either of TJH or Ghandi. Percentage play it might be safer to lynch Ghandi based on his tentative read on TJH and then if the flip holds true then go after TJH unless there is stronger evidence for another player based on the flip - I know Grokken is saying Scott is liable and I'll comment on that shortly but you have to also connect Scott's filter to Ghandi's to also make that association. (This does not make Grokken mafia btw)
But unless there is an overriding reason you always side with percentage play analysis and Sulfurus didn't leave too much behind post-lynch. Whether you believe Scott or TJH is the final mafia you have to go with percentage play.
##unvote
##vote GhandiEAGLE
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On July 14 2015 10:42 scott31337 wrote:
I'm off in left field in this game but I think we almost have it solved - Sorry I'm not contributing much. HtS town love gives me a stiffy and normally she's not solid - <3
If you have reason to suspect me, you have a lot of things to prove.
1 I hard bussed Sulfurus from the off. If I were scum, tell me how many cycles it would be before I run into the "why is she alive" theory.
2 I was roleblocked. You'd have to either believe a) scum held their roleblock or b) there is reason to see a veteran in the game as they double stacked actions on KSC or c) I am the roleblocker. In the case of b) you'd still have to explain why KSC got NKed over n00b and Fidei.
3 In line with 1, assuming MD is town you'd have to believe as scum I saved a town that could have very easily been mislynched. I could have just done nothing.
4 You'd have to believe that I had TMI on Sulfurus based on the method that I used to tag him and/or to put it in simpler terms, you believe no townie can look at Sulfurus' post and question why Sulfurus thought it was a waste of time to discuss the leading wagon with 1h45m until EoD with FOUR NO-VOTES.
5 You'd have to believe that MoosyDoosy (who admitted he was springing a trap) and I were both scummates setting our own teammate up to be lynched, a teammate who was much less likely to be lynched than Moosy with at least 6 votes.
Ockham's razor is usually the way to go unless you have reason (above) to think otherwise. If you can reasonably discuss at least 2-3 of the 5 points I raised above, then you might actually have a case.
TLDR - Based on you being on a scumteam with me, you are not unreasonable to fear read me. That post does not make you scum. But fear reading alone isn't going to get you anywhere, and I learnt that one the hard way with Kitaman in Aperture 4.
If you cannot discuss the above, then try again.
On July 14 2015 19:11 Fidei86 wrote:
Frankfurt airport is awesome - look for the recline chairs with the charging points if you're in terminal 2. Very comfortable.
I can sheep this 
On July 14 2015 19:39 Tictock wrote:
HtS can attest that my setup/role speculation has been very poor in the past as well, lol.
This I can also sheep, in addition to your setup speculation. Vigilantes usually shoot N1 and there were several reasons to, even ignoring lurkers. (And it should have been clear from me telling a vig to shoot Sulfurus at EoD that I'm not a vig.)
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Here are my views on everyone:
Most likely town:
n00bKing
Half the Sky
Fidei86
Town lean:
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EBWOP (accidently hit post)
Here are my views on everyone:
Most likely town:
n00bKing
Half the Sky
Fidei86
MoosyDoosy
Town lean:
Grokken
Neutral:
NydusHerMain/TICKTOCK
WonnaPlay
Scumlean:
scott31337
TJHuggins
Probably scum:
GhandiEAGLE
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Right now, I'm still thinking Grokken is the scummiest. Main reason is right here
On July 14 2015 08:33 Grokken wrote:
I think Fidei might be on to something, Ghandis post about MD is just rehashed arguments, he doesn't bring anything new to the table. He is also acting very defensively in the last few posts. He also said he didn't actually think MD is mafia, but still wants to policy-lynch him? I think we should try to lynch the mafia instead.
##vote GhandiEAGLE
Acting defensively is something a lot of people would do when suddenly accused of being mafia; to me it's not really good proof unless the person is doing it an extreme amount, which I wasn't. Bringing something new to the table isn't something you did either in this post, so unless you're calling yourself scum, rehashing what other people have said isn't really a good reason to suspect (necessarily). Thirdly, I said that I didn't want to lynch Moosy until Day 3. The reason I voted for him was to get him talking more and getting him into the game.
But disagreeing with your points isn't what's scummy to me. What's scummy is that you jumped on the first bandwagon that had nothing to do with supposedly likely scum, TJ. You issued a short, uninformative paragraph, and then immediately voted for me before even the original accuser, Fidei, did. To me this just seems like opportunistic play that would side yourself with a clear town, give you little to no culpability when I turn up town after a lynch, and still allow you to have a time in your filter where you seemed proactive in a town role, so as to be another defense later. That seems scummy to me.
Additionally, you held a vote on Moosy. You said it was because you weren't present at the final vote, but I have no reason to believe this. A lot of other people can be held to this too, so you're not alone here; however, it doesn't help you. I'm more or less in the dark about who the scummers are, but as far as my reads go you're the scummiest.
Also it's pretty safe to say attempting to get Moosy to participate didn't work out at all. Meh.
##Vote: Grokken
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Day 2 Vote Count
GhandiEAGLE(3): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky
TJHuggins(1): Ticktock
Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE
Not Voting(6): Noobking, WonnaPlay, scott31337, MoosyDoosy, TJHuggins, silentwarrior
Reminder Voting is done here.
It is mandatory to vote. Not doing so will result in a warning a second non vote will result in a modkill and action taken against you in the Mafia ban thread.
Currently GhandiEAGLE is set to be lynched with 4 votes.
Day 1 ends in
PLEASE REMEMBER THAT IT IS MANDATORY TO VOTE.
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Yayy I'm dead in the other game so I can concentrate on this one now - I'll do some buttkicking tonight after house cleaning.
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On July 14 2015 05:00 Tictock wrote:
I'm torn about TJ's EoD reaction. On the one hand I dont think scum would post like that In game over in their QT, but on the other hand I don't see town getting so worked up over that host mistake when it meant we lynched scum. The mistake had been discussed a fair bit as well (that MD cannot vote for himself) so it should not have been a suprise, yet he seemed genuinely upset that MD's vote on himself was not counted.
I experienced this same thought process after the lynch. I definitely thought that a mafia player would be more likely to complain in the scum thread, instead of in the main thread. But I had a hard time getting past the notion that a town player would not be likely to complain AT ALL.
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Read through Tictock's filter. I'm thinking town lean for now. I'm not seeing any red flags yet, granted there is (understandably at this point) a lot of parroting in the town circle but I'm starting to see some original thought in most of the people I am townreading. I'm not smelling an agenda, and most of what Tictock is saying seems believable from a town standpoint.
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On July 14 2015 20:36 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2015 05:37 n00bKing wrote:On July 11 2015 21:15 Half the Sky wrote:
noob why the vote on NHM? Can't tell whether your vote is a joke vote or not, the others I can. If the vote were a joke, I'm not sure what about it is supposed to be funny. Like...what's the joke? And my joke votes wouldn't go in the voting thread, and that one is in the voting thread. If you want to see a fake vote, you can look at the one on me from Sulfurus. He wastes space with a fakecheck and a fakevote, and then wastes more space by backreferencing them. That's all you get, from his first two posts. His third (and thus far, final) post is him essentially telling Moosy to "do stuff" without actually doing stuff himself. We get roughly the same amount of value from Kelsier's posts, in which he tells people to "start the game" without actually doing anything that would get the game going. If either of Kelsier/Sulfurus are town, they've already got a headstart on being useless town. Okay, so why the vote on NHM? Two reasons. 1) At the time that NHM votes, there is only ONE player who has really expressed any interest in progressing the game. Fidei86. He was the only one (to that point) who had made a legitimate, "let's start thinking about the actual game itself" type of post. And that is who NHM chooses to vote against: the one player who showed an indication that they might be taking the game seriously. 2) The other reason should not be revealed yet. @n00bking Did you ever post your response to your point at paragraph 2? If you did, could you link/reference me? If you didn't, can you say now?
I did, and it was this:
"What I didn't like about TJ was that he made absolutely no effort whatsoever to read (or even interact with) the only person in the game that he knew before the game started. If I were Town, and was in a game with a bunch of strangers + ONE person I knew quite well, then without a doubt my early focus would be on interacting with that person, to try and get a read on them, because I know things about their personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else on my team. TJ doesn't do this at all.
Conversely, if I were scum in that situation, I might make a point of avoiding that person, because they know things about MY personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else in the Town. And I might steer clear of them (possibly without even realizing I'm doing it) to keep them from getting a read on me.
From reading his filter, it's obvious which route TJ went on this issue. So if I'm killed tonight, I think you guys should make a point of questioning TJ on this. And if he has what seems to be a perfectly reasonable explanation for that behavior, then great! However, if all he can give you is some line about 'I knew NHM was afk for real-life reasons, so I didn't bother to try and talk to him, because I knew it would be pointless' then...NOT IMPRESSED."
That was bothering me throughout the entirety of Day 1. But I didn't want to bring it up, so I could watch and see if things changed, without TJ knowing what I was watching for. Things never changed, and once NHM replaced out, I didn't think there was any reason to keep it under wraps anymore.
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Silentwarrior....I know he's putting in the effort and people can't be in thread perpetually. But in the event that Gandhi winds up being a mislynch he might come under some suspicion. I can't put my finger on articulating it well at the moment (aside from the parroting, even the point by Scott was previously mentioned by WP, but a lot of people are understandably guilty of that) but the first two quotes of his long post at the top of page 25 are slightly biased in that they don't account for how a town Gandhi would act. Nowhere did he say "no one to make reads" but on Gandhi's end you do have a lack of followup. It could be suboptimal town or scum play. GE is in his second game ever on TL so believeable expectations aren't too high if a town Gandhi wants to prioritise lurkers.
Also 2 hours post-lynch depending on timezone is not considered too soon. Stateside, the EoDs (I'm assuming you are EU btw) are during evening rush hour, so who knows. I know you're new so I'm considering this part NAI for now. But popping up so soon after the lynch, 2 hours is not considered very soon. 2 minutes, yes you have a case.
Again I am a bit ahead and it is an associative read at this point in time (meaning can't know until a Gandhi flip) but I'm still null on SW at the moment. I think based on effort most newbie scum wouldn't give much effort. At the same time scum are concerned with "looking town" so I do remain cautious on SW.
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[B]
SW I have one reservation on him. There might be some distancing going on. I checked his filter again. There wasn't a weigh in on MD although the only thing SW said d1 was that he'd rather NHM over MD get lynched. However, look at his filter - first 5 posts on first page of his filter were before the lynch. His two posts on voting NHM were after my Sulfurus tag, and he makes zero mention one way or other on Sulfurus. Furthermore looking at votes, scum do and can hide on as solo votes, and a bit more apparent in newbie games (veterans are a bit more careful) so seeing SW solo voting nhm might be something to think about.
If he posted his vote/observation on NHM before my tag or if he'd taken any stance on Sulfurus I'd have less reason to suspect him, but him not appearing to take a stance at all on Sulfurus is a red flag. (His last post prior to EoD was 56m prior to lynch, and returned 1h after lynch, first stance on Sulfur was 1h25m after lynch.)
I don't think it's that big of a red flag. Sulfurus offered very little to take a stance on. I could see a new player looking at Sulfurus' filter and thinking "there is nothing here to work with."
Even so, I will still scumlean SilentWarrior a little bit. When there are 2 scum left to find, I don't want to have a suspect list that is only two players. So I'll make some room for SilentWarrior.
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On July 15 2015 05:24 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
But disagreeing with your points isn't what's scummy to me. What's scummy is that you jumped on the first bandwagon that had nothing to do with supposedly likely scum, TJ. You issued a short, uninformative paragraph, and then immediately voted for me before even the original accuser, Fidei, did. To me this just seems like opportunistic play that would side yourself with a clear town, give you little to no culpability when I turn up town after a lynch, and still allow you to have a time in your filter where you seemed proactive in a town role, so as to be another defense later. That seems scummy to me.
##Vote: Grokken
That's the second time I've seen you misuse the word bandwagon this game.
Now how does the first bolded sentence exclusively make Grokken mafia?
I don't like the second bolded sentence since you are putting words in his mouth but I think there is a reason Grokken didn't vote TJ.
But let's see if anyone else sorts that out.
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On July 15 2015 08:37 n00bKing wrote:
I don't think it's that big of a red flag. Sulfurus offered very little to take a stance on. I could see a new player looking at Sulfurus' filter and thinking "there is nothing here to work with."
This is a decent point. He was a solo voter and having done too many VCAs to count I might be a little biased since he solo voted, but newbies probably don't have the concept of town consolidation down either, at least not yet.
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Oh yeh, btw, newbies, VCA = vote count analysis, where you analyse wagons post-lynch and figure out alignments based on timing of votes and backup. Scott did a basic one already.
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On July 14 2015 07:11 Half the Sky wrote:
Also I have been roleblocked. I just received note of this.
Well...then if the scum team knows there is a Vigilante in the setup, you can probably expect to be roleblocked again on Night 2 as well. Because they will be worried that you are yourself the Vigilante. In reality, the Vigilante may just have not fired yet, but they probably won't take the chance, and would roleblock you again. If anyone besides you gets RB'd on Night 2, then it's probably a Cop setup instead.
On July 14 2015 07:11 Half the Sky wrote: This means a medic dodge is possible and the prot role is a medic. In randomised open setups, if there is roleblockable veteran in the setup, usually the RB and NK actions are stacked on the target to avoid chancing hitting the veteran. The fact that the nightactions were on separate targets, indicates that the prot role is likely to be a medic.
Yeah, I strongly agree with this. I think there is a Doctor in the setup, and that Kelsier was killed because the scum team was worried that you or I would be healed. I think this theory is much better than ones where the scum team suspected Kelsier of being a blue role, or were just generally afraid of him.
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I am off to bed. It's almost 1am. Good night townies <3
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On July 15 2015 08:44 n00bKing wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2015 07:11 Half the Sky wrote:
Also I have been roleblocked. I just received note of this. Well...then if the scum team knows there is a Vigilante in the setup, you can probably expect to be roleblocked again on Night 2 as well. Because they will be worried that you are yourself the Vigilante. In reality, the Vigilante may just have not fired yet, but they probably won't take the chance, and would roleblock you again. If anyone besides you gets RB'd on Night 2, then it's probably a Cop setup instead.
Come to think of it, I have been in a newbie game where a newbie vigilante did not fire his shot. I guess it is possible. But it really doesn't happen often. We'll see.
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EBWOP - did not fire his shot N1 (without being RBed)
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EPT
