EPTSlam please read Oats's filter and give your read on him. Other good filters to get to would be TK, sn0_man, and yamato
Desert Mini Mafia - Page 73
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Slam please read Oats's filter and give your read on him. Other good filters to get to would be TK, sn0_man, and yamato | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17322 Posts
I have something to figure out. Either Raynepelikoneet or Oatsmaster is scum. It is 1:30 I must sleep. But I will say why and then go I am cannon fodder vt. Oats votes me Raynepelikoneet knows I'm town. Which is town more likely to do given the ambiguous target on my back? Paint me town or lead a mislynch on me? Or towncred vs mislynch what is more valuable to scum. See y'all tomorrow. | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17322 Posts
On September 01 2013 17:26 sciberbia wrote: ##Vote Oats Slam please read Oats's filter and give your read on him. Other good filters to get to would be TK, sn0_man, and yamato K horrible timing sadly but good to see. Now it's quoted in my filter before tomorrow comes and I lose it- so maybe perfect timing. However ya see it. | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
Vote Count Onegu (1) Tutankoopa marvellosity (0) debears (1) raynpelikoneet raynpelikoneet (1) debears alakaslam (1) Oatsmaster Oatsmaster (1) sciberbia not voting (7) Sylencia Onegu yamato77 alakaslam sn0_Man Hapahauli marvellosity Onegu is currently set to be lynched. Deadline is in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00) Voting is mandatory, please let me know if I missed anyone | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
It's not just that he's in the thread less than normal -- it's that even when he's in the thread I just see absolutely no spark of townie insight or original analysis from him. There just isn't anything in his filter that looks like it would take him more than 10 seconds of brainstorming to come up with as scum:
Just seems like a super lazy scum game to me. I'll be very interested to hear feedback from you all because I don't see any reason not to lynch Oats today. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
Ok let me make up a reason for TK to be town that is insightful. Uhhh. TK is town because he has been giving good insight to the thread (QUOTED POST HERE) Yeah he is pushing dudes based on original thinking and like being useful and Caring about who dies. You know, caring about who dies is actually a very good towntell because scum only care that a town gets lynched. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
I mean, none of my reasoning is bad. Its just that apparently you dont like how Im playing this game. Not that im pushing a scum agenda. Too bad Scib. Deal With It. Thats kinda why I think you are scum. Town Scib doesnt push bad cases. And so far, its a bad case Scib. Man even is his latest post. Alak is using a reason to narrow the thread down to 2 people that he has to look at and he doesnt take into the fact that both me and Rayn cant be town together. He has to think of a reason to push us and our reads seems to be a good start for him. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
On August 31 2013 13:14 Alakaslam wrote: BUT I'm vt. So if you don't want me to spam I can slow it down. Asking for reads though? Better be satisfied with "oats is town, Raynepelikoneet is town, ONEGU is town, I am town, and marv is null." Will have to do. I am too nervous to lead a mislynch, and I can't reason why anything is scummy. My WIFOM scale is as broad as the pacific, everything is WIFOM to me. Excuse to not provide anything? On September 01 2013 07:58 Hapahauli wrote: Anyway we have about 15 minutes to the deadline (as I'm typing this), so I'll get some thoughts out of the way in-case I get shot. I'm pretty convinced that Marv, Sciberbia, and Rayn are town. The people out of that group right now is where I'm having difficulty. I have a lot of slight town-reads and not many scum-reads. As for tomorrow, I think the best course of action is to look at the vote count and try to see who was really trying to consolidate and help town (wiht the last minute vote) and who was not. I'd expect 1-2 scum to be off of the FT wagon. Sylencia is definetely a candidate to be scrutinized tomorrow, since he basically dropped a vote on Onegu with him having virtually no chance of getting lynched. Sylencia's play has been really strange this game. He's posting more, but is not nearly as productive as I've seen him in past games, and also has this really... "sad" air about him. Lots of frowny faces in his filter for some odd reason. He's someone I'm leaning scum on right now. I mentioned Yamato77 already. He's useful as town, and hasn't been at all useful this game. Unless he shapes up in a big way tomorrow, I wouldn't hate to dispatch of him. Alakaslam is someone who had his vote in the wrong place, but there are just these comments/lines in his filter towards the end of the day that sound remarkably genuine. Having coached several newbie games with him, I don't think he's difficult to read, and has a hard time staying genuine when he's scum. My gut-feel for this guy is town, but he definetely should be pressured to contribute. TK definetely deserves another look. He really wasn't moving his vote around much today, and I think we've given him far too much town-credit for his quick change-of-mind on Rayn early on Day 1. Circumstances, Hapa. I posted more which is different to normal because I was trying to make a bigger impact than normal since I'm always scrutinized for being a lurker. However, still struggling to work out how to deal with Day 1s, since the information is never as clear as when you probably remember me being more useful in later days. Assuming I make it to a later day, hopefully it'll show more. Day 2 Lynch - Wasn't unexpected - debears was the one who made the most convincing arguments and cases. Whether or not they were correct, scum probably feel pressured by this as a small slip would probably be picked up be him. Rayn seems to be confident knowing everything about the scum setup, and also (fake?)claimed multiple roles around debears revealing his breadcrumb. Follows up by saying debears is scum? Lol. 1 for 1 trade on debears life after a failed lynch is possible, timing is probably right for it too to start a fakeclaim war. On September 01 2013 18:04 sciberbia wrote: In case it's not obvious to the thread, I'm voting Oats because it looks like he CANNOT justify his 180 reversal on the TK read and he's taking the easy way out by voting Slam for lurking too much or whatever instead of writing any actual analysis on anyone. It's not just that he's in the thread less than normal -- it's that even when he's in the thread I just see absolutely no spark of townie insight or original analysis from him. There just isn't anything in his filter that looks like it would take him more than 10 seconds of brainstorming to come up with as scum:
Just seems like a super lazy scum game to me. I'll be very interested to hear feedback from you all because I don't see any reason not to lynch Oats today. I see Oats as more lazy/sheep at the moment. I don't really understand the jump from scum Tutan to town Tutan that much, but if he is scum there's going to be a lot more holes we uncover in the future, since that's pretty sloppy scum play if it is. That's why I'm not really satisfied with him being the primary target of the lynch when we have Alakaslam and the rayn v debears unresolved situation. Rayn will come back tomorrow saying "Sorry I was drunk last night, ignore everything I said", which honestly doesn't help us with his read on him, and Alakaslam: 3 - 4 hours later + the first quote I've put up there = stalling to do absolutely nothing. It doesn't look like he plans on being an asset to town whatsoever, and hopes to cruise along. ##Vote Alakaslam (need to see what happens with rayn before considering him more seriously) | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
Oats: Would you believe rayn to be a vet if he doesn't take it back? Cause it doesn't add up how debears and rayn both claim the same thing, with no town Vig claim (SK is the only real answer to this but everyone has already covered how having 2 vets seems unlikely) | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On September 01 2013 06:53 marvellosity wrote: Yeah, his filter there is 24 pages, and since they changed the filter shit I don't know how to display all pages at once. This is the comment I made in geript/mine QT though marvellosity was signed in when posted 04-25-2013 12:12 PM ET (US) "Clarity is always inactive, and him being fixated on Sharrant is not alignment indicative. His case is objectively something that scum like to do, but in the context of the game, I can see a town Clarity who had a late start feeling the need to get his thoughts about the game on the table, even if they weren't about the main lynch candidates. The fact that he basically has no other reads in the game is a point in his favor, but just like VE, we can afford to play a waiting game with him, seeing as we have unlimited time." had a quick browse. found this funny. 1) clarity is usually active 2) him being fixated on sharrant is alignment indicative 3) the context of the game makes the case scummier, not less 4) having no proper reads is not a point in his favour so much fail in one paragraph The main reason it reminded me specifically of the you/me post is that what i quoted there was part of a larger post with all kinds of fail which yamato somehow comes up with a couple of times per game as town, whereas he doesn't as mafia. Anyways, i can't really disagree about how useful he's been, but do you really think he'd have gone balls out at BOTH of us like that? 1) Clarity had not been very active in any game I had played with him before LXI, such as Parallel where he replaced out. I had the impression that he was an inactive sort of player, for whatever reason. 2) They were both scum, and I later nailed the both of them. This was a post where I intentionally doubted all my own reads because I was being bad. This is also probably the second worst game I've ever played in. 3) You knew they were both mafia. You cannot objectively make these kinds of judgements. 4) It is a point in his favor for being mafia. I worded it poorly but you took this out of context. I made this post talking about who I wanted to lynch or something like that. so stfu, I may make dumb posts occasionally but this was not one of them. On September 01 2013 06:55 Hapahauli wrote: Maybe? I mean Yamato is fully capable of being useful as town, and if he's not next cycle, he should probably die. It disturbs me that you're considering the idea that I'm worth lynching over some of the highly suspect players in this game. It also disturbs me that you didn't get shot at, apparently. I'm watching you, Hapa. Just because you tried to help me de-tunnel Marv doesn't mean I ignore your posts the rest of the game. On September 01 2013 08:00 Hapahauli wrote: Welll... sweet. Also weird, IMO. Seems hesitant/unnatural. FOS Hapa On September 01 2013 08:18 raynpelikoneet wrote: That's not a vaild thought process, who would you shoot? He would have shot me, Hapa, or debears if he were scum and we were all town. Probably not me, unless he's paranoid that I'm able to catch him (he wouldn't be). Anyway, it DEFINITELY wouldn't be you. On September 01 2013 08:26 Hapahauli wrote: I'm not following the logic here. Debears claimed roleblock and you claim veteran. OK. So... 1) You've claimed mason and vigi already. How can I trust your claim? 2) What does yoru claim have anything to do with debears being roleblocked? The problem with Rayn here is that I think he'd do this as town, to be honest. He loves fakeclaiming as a powerplay to get what he wants. You are also correct in one of your posts where you say that it would be a stretch for scum Rayn to be this spastic. That said, I also believe debears. Not worth lynching into these claims TBH. On September 01 2013 08:32 debears wrote: mafia have fixed 1 kp. I was shot. You claim to be shot. Would have to be a vig (or sk) And two veterans. Unlikely imo This is also true. It's not entirely out of the question that there is a 3P with KP in this game, or perhaps a mafia vig. If you were town vig and shot one of Rayn or debears (lol, who am I kidding, you shot Rayn), you should claim. On September 01 2013 09:03 Hapahauli wrote: For as tough of a time I'm giving Ryan about the claim, it's probably legit (if Rayn is town). He hasn't been suspicious of debears at all this game, and all his other claims were levied around trying to manipulate the game around his individual reads. I do need to entertain the possibility of scum-Rayn tonight. And even though scum-Rayn can be somewhat spazztic, I don't know if he could fake these levels. Also, any town-vigi should claim. If not, we either have a mafia vigi or an SK on our hands. And if there's an SK, we can confirm it tomorrow night (if two people die) and thereby corroborate both of these claims. SK could have the power to withhold his shot/it might overlap with scum. There's no 100% possibility to RULE OUT an SK, so we should always be weary. That said, it's also possible mafia have a 2-shot vig or something, so it's difficult to confirm one as well. Flips on anti-town parties are the only way to confirm their existence and the validity of the claims. But for now, it's not worth thinking about them anymore. We should continue on as if both are true. As for the shots, it's obvious that debears was shot + roleblocked by scum. This is a common mafia tactic when bluesniping. But if someone picked up on his crumb, why would they shoot into a veteran, and if they did, why wouldn't they double-stack him and kill him off if they did have multiple KP? It is likely, then, that debears was shot under the normal decision making process of NK choices. This begs the question, why were the 2 higher-priority NK targets (Marv/Hapa) shot at? Mafia might have had a blue read on Debears somehow, but missed the crumb. It is also possible that Hapa is mafia and intentionally chose not to shoot Marv because of Marv's emotionally tilted play this game, and as to not lead to too many questions of why he is alive and Marv dead later on. Rayn seems unlikely to have been shot at by mafia. Rayn as town is a top-tier thread destroyer. He is also a liability to town with his propensity to make powerplays and generally ignore the advice of more objective players. If he is telling the truth and was shot, to me it implies a third party player who found him a threat to their survival. This heavily implicates TK, in my opinion, as no one else received even a fraction of Rayn's attention as he did. As for my reads in this game: Town: Marv, Rayn, Debears Leaning town: Sylencia, sciberbia Null: Onegu, Sn0, Slam Probable anti-town: Oats, TK I'll substantiate my reads on the null/anti-town players in short order. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
Also one thing that especially bothers me is why would debears be shot over Hapa/marv in case even one of them is town? Him being shot AND roleblocked by mafia makes sense how? Who would doc debears over marv/Hapa on N1? ##Unvote: Like, i think there is a possibility of 2 vets in the game. But what does this mean? | ||
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Onegu
United States9695 Posts
On August 30 2013 23:38 Sn0_Man wrote: TBH I'm not sure who is a better vote than Alakaslam right now anyway. I'm willing to lynch oats but I feel like that its more intelligent to leave him around a bit longer, get more info out of him. Sylencia is another option, although apart from his very early stuff that has been done to bits I don't see what else would incriminate him. I'm not sure who else is a real candidate. Onegu is playing as I expect him to, which might be unfortunate but really doesn't make me want to lynch him. None of Marv/Hapa/Yam are remotely lynchable at this point. Sciberbia picked it up a ton. Actually reading Tofu makes me plenty happy to lynch him, although at the same time I really question a scummer posting that lol. I don't think koopa is a real lynch. If nothing else he's been reasonable to rayn, quite above and beyond the call. Which leaves bears but I once again feel that he deserves at least another day. TL;DR: I still wanna lynch Alakaslam. PS: maybe it wasn't clear, but I read most of yesterday and essentially never bothered posting once hapa got going because he was saying pretty much everything I thought about the thread. Only substantially more eloquently. Sn0 you go from this to. On August 30 2013 23:54 Sn0_Man wrote: I'm actually getting more interested in taking this approach, mostly to be fair to alakaslam since replacing in as the prime lynch candidate with 8 hours to lynch is horrendously unfair. This and then back to On August 31 2013 05:21 Sn0_Man wrote: Well as far as I'm concerned all of a sudden we have too many reasonable lynches lol (aka our votes are spread already :/). Syl/FT/Alakaslam are all people I'd lynch plus we have a fair portion tunnelled on koopa. Since not having my vote on anybody makes it a bit harder for consolidation, I'm going to ##Vote: Alakaslam however I'm currently quite willing to be convinced on any of those 3. Why did you have the middle post? | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On September 01 2013 22:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why is there no Hapa in your reads yamato? Also one thing that especially bothers me is why would debears be shot over Hapa/marv in case even one of them is town? Him being shot AND roleblocked by mafia makes sense how? Who would doc debears over marv/Hapa on N1? ##Unvote: Like, i think there is a possibility of 2 vets in the game. But what does this mean? I'm not going to talk about Hapa until I know his alignment. I talked about why debears would be shot over hapa/marv, I also talked about why he was shot + roleblocked. Please read my entire post. It's also possible that mafia thought Hapa/marv were too dangerous to shoot into (as in they are likely to be protected), but that doesn't really explain the roleblock unless they had no idea how else to use it. 2 vets probably means quite a bit of anti-town KP. Obviously. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
1) Do not shoot into marv - Hapa because they are likely protected 2) debears is blue, let's shoot him 3) but hey, let's also roleblock him in case he survives (which makes no sense because of 1 - as vet cannot be rb'd, and would mafia seriously assume 2 medics?) It just makes no sense to me. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On September 01 2013 23:07 raynpelikoneet wrote: I understand the roleblock, i understand the shot. I don't understand them together, because mafia would need to think: 1) Do not shoot into marv - Hapa because they are likely protected 2) debears is blue, let's shoot him 3) but hey, let's also roleblock him in case he survives (which makes no sense because of 1 - as vet cannot be rb'd, and would mafia seriously assume 2 medics?) It just makes no sense to me. Like I said, mafia commonly do this when bluesniping (or even shooting at all, really). He could be vig or whatever, it's better to be safe than sorry when dealing with roles. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
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Onegu
United States9695 Posts
On August 31 2013 11:25 Sylencia wrote: Hey guys, wtf happened in the last 18 pages... There were literally 3 or 4 different wagons going on and they were flipping every hour? @Tutan, I was saying that before... Anyways, everyone was complaining that I didn't comment on Hopeless. At the time I was going to read his filter again, he got replaced. I don't even know what to say in that kind of situation. Are we supposed to wait for Slam to comment on the happenings of town? Was I supposed to put down a vote on Alakaslam in the 1 hour the was in the game before I slept because he was being useless and Hopeless wasn't exactly the most townie character in the game? I probably should've actually said that I wasn't going to vote for Slam to see what he said, but I didn't even wake up in time for the deadline T_T. Not really again you never really pointed anything specific out you just voted me and left. And I dont understand the sentiment that someone being lynched that wagon should just stop because they were replaced. On August 31 2013 00:39 Sylencia wrote: Note: I did originally say that FT was decent choice, but Oats is right: I don't really remember a time in any of my games when full lurker ends up being scum. This is a 180 off the guy who flipped town, and it happened recently in NWM when DI flipped scum, so saying a full on lurker doesnt work, well sometimes it does. | ||
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