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On August 17 2012 09:09 YourHarry wrote:OK. It's OK. This should provide further evidence that Archrun is scum. The history repeats itself, and it almost repeated itself today... if we could have lynched Archrun. This exact same style of posting and motivation happened in my previous game, where the scum was trying to benefit from a mislynch in me. I referenced the filter consisting of this scum player from the earlier game earlier. But here it is again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&user=263567¤tpage=2In that game, we were able to switch our lynch last minute from me to this scum player. In this game we came short, but at least it strengthens my read. And this also means that Thrawn is town. Because Archrun was indeed counting on Thrawn's mislynch AND THEN Shady's mislynch. I believe both of these players to be town.
What the Fuck? This does not confirm Archun as scum. You are doing the exact thing that you Initially found Archun suspicious of.
And it certainly does not confirm Thrawn as town.
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Most unfortunate. I hope you be more careful when you try to assume the leadership.
Your death will not be in vain! I will make sure your death will catch some mudblood scum!
Thank you for your attempt, Shady Sands! May you rest in peace.
I will think hard on the situation, and see what we can learn from his lynch.
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Darth, maybe I didn't explain myself clear enough. This is how I interpret Archrun's motivation. By saying that exactly one of Shady or Thrawn is scum, he is basically proposing to lynch the other one if one flips town. So if Shady flips town, he is asking us to lynch Thrawn and vice versa.
This way, no matter who we lynch first, he wants to lynch two townies in Shady and Thrawn (no I am not making a scum slip based on my knowledge that both Shady and Thrawn are town). It is true, I may have misinterpreted GK's post (I still not sure, but let's suppose that I did). The difference is that the Archrun's proposal is clearly scum motivated.
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Why has no one posted? We need to be active. In this game, night talk is allowed. I only skimmed what happened in the last few pages, so I will re-read. In the mean time, let's talk about what inferences we can make from Shady mislynch.
Also, I would appreciate any comment on what you think about my interpretation of Archrun's post, that he was trying to benefit from the mislynch.
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On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this. Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 05:34 thrawn2112 wrote:
Can somebody try to convince me why I shouldn't vote for shady and instead vote for a lurker? I am confident in my vote for shady, but there is still the possibility that he is town and that he made a terrible case. I think it is more likely that he is scum, but if someone can convince me that a specific lurker is a way more likely to be scum then I will change my vote. This has nothing to do with my confidence for reading shady as scum. He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is.
You do realize that Thrawn was not sheeping on Shady lynch. He was one of the people who was vocal about his suspicion of Shady. He also outlined a case against Arch. Have you read these posts? If so, I don't know how you claim that Thrawn is attempting to sheep. If anything, his asking why we should go after a lurker, instead of someone he has scummy evidence for, means that he is not trying to base his vote on lurking alone.
On August 17 2012 08:09 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 07:26 Archrun wrote:
Currently, I feel that if Shady is lynched and is town then we should lynch Thrawn, Likewise, if Thrawn is lynch then we should lynch Shady. If one of them is scum then the other is town. I doubt any busing is occurring because if they were on a team they could of just focus me rather than fight among each other. With that I am going to keep my vote but if Thrawn flips townie Shady is becomes my number one suspect. If one player comes up town, that never makes another player scum 100%. Unless you have some inside info, you just pulled this thought out of your ass. Either way, Archrun is on my radar now because townies should never be thinking like that. My vote stands on thrawn, but Archrun is gonna have some 'splaining to do.
I agree with you here, thus explaining my scum reads on Archrun. Not to repeat myself so many times, but for emphasis: it is apparent that Archrun is trying to benefit from mislynching two bad players. The only drawback of this Archrun's strategy is that he may look bad after both Thrawn and Shady flip town.
In either case, do you agree that if Archrun flips scum, Thrawn is almost confirmed town?
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I have additional evidence why I think Thrawn is town, which confirm my scum read on Archrun. Minutes before the deadline the vote count was tied between Shady and Thrawn, with four votes each.
On August 17 2012 08:40 marvellosity wrote:
Vote count, cowboys:
ShadySands (4): thrawn2112, SolarSail, mkfuba07, Jhuyt
thrawn2112 (4): ShadySands, Archrun, DarthPunk, Golbat
Archrun (3): Stutters695. Ochrow, YourHarry
Jhuyt (2): goodkarma, Z-Boson
Shady Sands currently set to be lynched. 20 minutes until the deadline!
Unless three scums were all already voting for ShadySands, if Thrawn is indeed scum, one of his scum partners would have tried to move his vote to ShadySands. While Shady was set to be lynched because he was the first player to receive 4 votes, it would have been still dangerous from scum's perspective because all it takes is one townie to switch his vote to Thrawn and the scum would be lynched. But this did not happen, which is consistent with Thrawn being town.
Two possible scenarios that counter this argument are that:
1) Scums were simply not around to make last minute changes in this vote. This seems possible because it was pretty close to the deadline when I changed my vote from Shady to Archrun and Golbat placed his vote on Thrawn. This is not completely out of the question, but A) considering that scums still had one hour window to make the move and B) that scum Thrawn means that his scum partners would have been very well aware that Thrawn was a strong lynch candidate (based on discussion that happened hours prior to the deadline), I suspect that Tharwn's scum teammates would have been watching things closely.
2) Thrawn's scum partners were too hesitant to switch their votes, in fear that it would make them suspicious. This is possible, but maybe it would not have been too difficult to fabricate some wishy-washy with reasons for change in opinion.
And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Archrun lynch over Thrawn lynch happens.
But in summary, until I changed my vote from Archrun to Shady, which happened like 2 minutes before the deadline, the scums had some window of opportunity to switch their votes to Shady (unless all three were already voting for Shady) in order to provide a some protection against last minutes switch of votes to their scum partner Thrawn. This is not a fool-proof evidence, as there are possible exceptions listed above 1) and 2) but I think this should render additional evidence that Thrawn is town (and thus both Thrawn and Shady are town) which would confirm my suspicion that Archrun is attempting to benefit from mislynching two townies.
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EDBWOP: And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Shady lynch over Thrawn lynch happens.
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On August 17 2012 08:19 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 08:10 YourHarry wrote:
My strong town read on Thrawn is confirmed by Archrun's recent post stating that exactly Thrawn or Shady are scum. I don't know how he arrived at this conclusion. While it is unlikely that they are bussing each other as scums, how to exclude the possibility that they are both towns?
I would like recruit people to support a lynch against Archrun. Archrun flipping scum likely means that Thrawn and Shady (Thrawn, especially) are probably town. You are now Guilty of the exact same thing as Archun except you have worded it without looking blatantly suspicious. That makes you more suspicious to me than Archun's post did. I don't see why you have a 'strong town read' on thrawn, I don't think any one in their right mind could have a strong town read on him at this point in time. I could see why you don't think he is the best lynch candidate, but strong town read? give me a break. In no way at all does Archun's post confirm Thrawn as town. Jesus Christ. First thrawn does it for you and now you are doing it for thrawn.
I do not venture to say Thrawn is confirmed town. I am pretty sure he is town, and maybe we disagree. But if Arch flips scum, would you agree that Thrawn is almost confirmed town?
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I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up.
I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated.
Expect my next post to contain my read on Archrun, and possibly reads on some other players who were outspoken in the shady/thrawn debate.
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Hey been at uni, Just got home. But I am about to go out for drinks (Friday night!) when I get back I'll add something to Your Harry's monologue.
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I've started going through Archrun's filter and I have some questions for him.
On August 15 2012 10:20 Archrun wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 10:11 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 15 2012 09:59 Shady Sands wrote:On August 15 2012 09:55 thrawn2112 wrote:
Does anyone have experience playing in a game where a serial killer was a possible role? If there did end up being a serial killer, how big a role did they play and how high would you rate the importance and achieveability of sniffing them out early? In other words, would it be a worthwhile use of the town's time and investigation to try to figure out who, if anyone, is the serial killer? I can see how it would be very important to find out who is SK early on, but I also can see how it might be way more difficult than figuring out who is mafia, and thus not a good use of time. One distinction between the serial killer and the mafia is that the mafia are in communication and will be working together while the serial killer is separated from both town and mafia. Any player who is suspected to be not of town affiliation could either be mafia or SK, so while in either case they are a good target for lynching, having knowledge of their actual role would be way more valuable than just an uninformed hit on a supposed non-town player.
If there isn't an SK, then this line of discussion is a complete waste of time and we would be doing the mafia's job for them, which is why I asked if anyone has experience in games with an SK so that we all can get a better idea of what the risk/reward anaylsis should be on determining whether or not and when to focus on a potential SK.
Concerning shady sand's post, this is my first game so I have no previous history to reference. Why are you so worried about the SK? SK is a bigger threat to scum than to town. I am not really worried, but am trying to learn from other people's experiences if there is any reason to worry. I thought I was pretty clear that I was undecided on the importance of SK, and that if SK is unimportant in D1 it's a complete waste of time to worry about it. My current opinion is that it is something to worry about, but not on D1. Therefore I'm not going to continue posting about it until something happens along the lines of way too many unexplained town deaths. To follow that point up, I feel like the scum threat is a lot stronger than SK because they are organized and know who to attack. A SK in my eyes is like a scum with only one person in it that can attack other scums independently. So if any exist in this game they shouldn't become an issue until later in the game.
I don't accept that as an accurate description of an SK. You say not to worry about looking for an sk until later in the game, because an sk is "like a scum with only one person in it that can attack other scums independently." An SK isn't limited to killing scum, in fact they would probably have to kill more town players than scum players. The fact that you didn't point out hwo an SK would also kill town players leads me to think that you either didn't realize it, or that you are planting a false description of an SK because YOU are SK. What do you have to say about your original description of an SK and what do you think about my description?
In this post:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 16 2012 13:58 Archrun wrote:Sorry for being lurky, not intend just became last minute busy. As far as reads go I am going through the thread at will give my thoughts on the case against YH, thrawn, and GK as soon as I can, but right now I want to make a ##FoS: Jhuyt and SolarCase: Jhuyt puts: Show nested quote +On Solar: This is just how he is in general from what I've seen on TL, so I don't have anything there. then Solar puts: Show nested quote +Secondly, the continued defence of me by Thrawn has no basis. I was clearly being anti-town. Some evidence:
"I am still of the opinion that solar's posts are somewhat likely to be emotional overreactions rather than scummy."
"Shady, can you explain your reasoning for initially jumping all over solar?"
"Most of the discussion right now is about solarsail. I don't think there's anything wrong with this because so far his posts haven't seemed very useful but we have still yet to hear from several players. He could easily be town and just reacting to everyone immediately jumping on his case as soon as the game starts."
"Suspicion of a soft accusation is hardly good evidence that he should be lynched especially when there has been so little discussion so far so I am not sold on your case against him."
There is little reason to defend me so much unless your motivation is to defend someone he knows to be town player for deflection reasons.
May main concern is two-fold: 1) Jhuyt claims Solar is just an emotional by his previous TL post history, which later Solar claims to be a deliberate act. Futhermore, skimming through Solar TL post history it doesn't seem that emotionally based. In fact, it is closer to his current professionalism. I believe Jhuyt defense of him is a blatant lie. 2) Solar questions why Thrawn is defending him, but not Jhuyt. Other people defend Solar has a bad townies, and to shape up his posting, while Jhuyt explained Solar behavior (falsely) as that is the type of person solar is. This leads me wonder why would Solar question Thrawn's motives and not Jhuyt? This plays out four ways: If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is townie then Solar should of suspected his motives like he did with thrawn or both of them are mason and there is no need to question each others motives. I believe them being Masons is possible. If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is scum then why would jhuyt lie about Solar's posting? Futhermore, why wouldn't Solar call Jhuyt out like he did with Thrawn? The only why I can see is to put focus on one person. This seems dishonest. nor does it allievate Jhuyt roll. under those ground I reject this possibility. If Jhuyt is scum and Solar is scum then either a bus play could happen(which didn't) or they could protect each other. They could directly protect each other by offering counter arguments against both of them, (which only Jhuyt did in that one line lie) or indirectly by not bringing attention to each other(which would be a play that Solar made. I believe them both being scum is possible. Finally, if Jhuyt is scum and Solar is townie then by lying Jhuyt post (which occured before Solar) puts focus on Shady and potentially has some a townie on his side. Solar likewise either became a townie by his side(doubtful, because he didn't defend him against Shady's accusation) or Solar would of question his motive like he did with thrawn. I reject this possibility as stated above. This leads me to believe Jhuyt and Solar are Scum or Masons. Thoughts? Concerns? Did I miss something? I don't think Solar missed Jhuyt post because he was corresponding with Shady the entire page and part way through there correspondences Shady replied to Jhuyt. I want to emphasis I haven't look at the evidence agaisnt Thrawn thoroughly so I have no argument on him as scum or town at the moment.
You gave a very long winded and convoluted argument where your conclusion was that solar and jhuyt are possibly, depending on several variable factors, either both scum or masons. It looks like you were trying way too hard to appear like you were contributing. This doesn't mean that you are confirmed scum, because if you are town then I understand your motivation for making that post. You could have felt like you were under too much pressure and decided to post a long argument to convince people that you are town, but I think your argument felt forced. In your next post you take back your claim because jhyut's statement about solar's posting history proved to be true, which gives me a town read on that post. You show that you are trying to adjust your arguments based on new information presented by others which I think is pro-town behavior. No matter what your alliance is, your mason/scum claim on solar and jhyut looked like an attempt to show that you are contributing. I'm going to stick with town read on that one but there were things that happened later on in D1 that caused me to get a scum read on you. I haven't gone through your posts after the one's I referenced so I still need to form an opinion on your role in the lynch vote.
For now I'd like to hear what you have to say about my post.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
On August 17 2012 09:12 mkfuba07 wrote:
Could we see a final tally of votes?
Final Vote count is in the night post
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So it turns out I stayed out til 2am lol. I will try and post something just before the day post.
Night guys.
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At the moment I'm going to stick with my earlier suspicions and say that unless something very suspicious happens we should vote Archrun. But at the same time Thrawn's sheeping makes me suspicious of him, though I still have more of a townie read on him. So I think right now we are going to have to focus a lot on who the kills are tonight.
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@Ochrow:
You've been fairly quiet. Could you discuss your read on Thrawn in a little more detail? This is the first time you've discussed him sheeping, and I'd be interested to know where you've seen him do this. I wouldn't call everything he's said original, but from what I've seen his vote on Shady was made pretty independently.
And what about him specifically makes you think he's town?
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On August 18 2012 06:13 Ochrow wrote:
At the moment I'm going to stick with my earlier suspicions and say that unless something very suspicious happens we should vote Archrun. But at the same time Thrawn's sheeping makes me suspicious of him, though I still have more of a townie read on him. So I think right now we are going to have to focus a lot on who the kills are tonight.
Why is it suspicious that I am questioning archrun? I clearly expressed my reasons for doing so.
On August 17 2012 14:58 thrawn2112 wrote:
I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up.
I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated.
Expect my next post to contain my read on Archrun, and possibly reads on some other players who were outspoken in the shady/thrawn debate.
Shady was mislynched. This is our first real clue as to the scum team's possible actions. That is the starting point of my current scumhunting effort and Archrun is my first suspect, both because I was already suspicious of him and because he and I seem to be in the spotlight.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
Please remember to get any night actions in to me and Keirathi. With some preference to not right at the last minute ^_^
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In case I die my top scum reads are
Thrawn
Shady was an obvious counter wagon that sprang up very quickly and with the kind of momentum that comes from scum coordinating to push a mislynch on someone.
He was also the top scumread of now townie shady sands and was very active in pushing the shady mislynch.
On August 18 2012 06:58 thrawn2112 wrote:
Shady was mislynched. This is our first real clue as to the scum team's possible actions. That is the starting point of my current scumhunting effort and Archrun is my first suspect, both because I was already suspicious of him and because he and I seem to be in the spotlight.
He is now trying to paint Archrum who didn't vote for the shady mislynch as a more likely suspect than those who were influential in orchestrating the counter wagon on shady. Namely himself and Your Harry.
My second Scum read is Your Harry
The half hearted and altogether too late masquerade to alter his vote to Archun seems like an rather obvious attempt to distance himself from the shady mislynch and to set up a mislynch the following day. He is guilty of the exact thing that he accuses Archun of and yet the way he is going about it is far more suspicious.
He also maintained a vote buffer on shady sands throughout the voting cycle and based it on some interplay with Thrawn. Although he says only one townie had to switch to Thrawn two actually did
The thing that makes me very suspicious of these two is that they are now trying to paint themselves, two of the people who lead the obvious counter wagon on shady as being confirmed town after shady's flip and are now obviously trying to set up another lynch on someone whom suspected thrawn on a questionable interpretation of a single post for a reason that they are both now far more guilty of.
I will post far more detailed discussion on both these players if I live. However If I die. Town, please seriously consider lynching Your Harry and Thrawn ASAP
@Your Harry and Thrawn:
Yes I understand what you are saying about Archun. However I don't buy your case or your interpretation of the post it is based on.
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On August 18 2012 07:43 DarthPunk wrote:In case I die my top scum reads are ThrawnShady was an obvious counter wagon that sprang up very quickly and with the kind of momentum that comes from scum coordinating to push a mislynch on someone. He was also the top scumread of now townie shady sands and was very active in pushing the shady mislynch. Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 06:58 thrawn2112 wrote:
Shady was mislynched. This is our first real clue as to the scum team's possible actions. That is the starting point of my current scumhunting effort and Archrun is my first suspect, both because I was already suspicious of him and because he and I seem to be in the spotlight. He is now trying to paint Archrum who didn't vote for the shady mislynch as a more likely suspect than those who were influential in orchestrating the counter wagon on shady. Namely himself and Your Harry. My second Scum read is Your Harry The half hearted and altogether too late masquerade to alter his vote to Archun seems like an rather obvious attempt to distance himself from the shady mislynch and to set up a mislynch the following day. He is guilty of the exact thing that he accuses Archun of and yet the way he is going about it is far more suspicious. He also maintained a vote buffer on shady sands throughout the voting cycle and based it on some interplay with Thrawn. Although he says only one townie had to switch to Thrawn two actually did The thing that makes me very suspicious of these two is that they are now trying to paint themselves, two of the people who lead the obvious counter wagon on shady as being confirmed town after shady's flip and are now obviously trying to set up another lynch on someone whom suspected thrawn on a questionable interpretation of a single post for a reason that they are both now far more guilty of. I will post far more detailed discussion on both these players if I live. However If I die. Town, please seriously consider lynching Your Harry and Thrawn ASAP @Your Harry and Thrawn: Yes I understand what you are saying about Archun. However I don't buy your case or your interpretation of the post it is based on.
So you're saying I should be investigating myself and yourharry instead of archrun?
I'm not sure what to make of yourharry. He has flip flopped more than anyone else throughout the entire D1, and I think he is reading too much into archun's post where archrun said "either shady or thrawn is scum." It is a strange thing to say, especially without including the option that both shady and I could be town, but for yourharry to call it "clearly scum motivated" is a little unjustified. My (very weak) read on him is that he is town, but it is a weak read because of how often he flip-flopped on his reads and votes during D1.
Just to clarify to darthpunk: My suspicion of Archrun is not based on his 'lynch thrawn if shady is town' post. Yes it's a weird post, but it isn't one of my main reasons for going through his filter and I never said it was.
The town has not been active at all since shady's lynch. All you others need to say something because you're making this more difficult than it should be.
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On August 18 2012 08:17 thrawn2112 wrote:
So you're saying I should be investigating myself and yourharry instead of archrun?
No. I am not saying you should investigate yourself. Is that what you genuinely got out of my post?
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EPT
