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Newbie Mini Mafia XXIV - Page 21

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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YourHarry
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1152 Posts
August 16 2012 23:10 GMT
#401
My strong town read on Thrawn is confirmed by Archrun's recent post stating that exactly Thrawn or Shady are scum. I don't know how he arrived at this conclusion. While it is unlikely that they are bussing each other as scums, how to exclude the possibility that they are both towns?

I would like recruit people to support a lynch against Archrun. Archrun flipping scum likely means that Thrawn and Shady (Thrawn, especially) are probably town.
Never!
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
August 16 2012 23:12 GMT
#402
On August 17 2012 07:58 DarthPunk wrote:
I am really uncomfortable with how fast a counter wagon on the most active player in the game sprung up. I urge everyone to read MY CASE on thrawn.


My initial FOS on yourharry was bad play. I didn't have sufficient evidence to put a FOS on YH. My suspicion was only based off of how many times yh had flip-flopped so I was wary of him. The FOS was unwarranted. I called FOS without putting enough thought into the decision.

I do think that I gave a good explanation of why I later believed he was town:

On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote:At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum.


I clarified my argument after being pressed about it:

The 2nd paragraph contained the majority of my thought process concerning YH. Some people thought YH was scum because he was posting as if he had additional information, but I saw a different perspective. YH said he acted the way he did because he made a self-admittedly weak read into gk's post. I then said that I was previously nursing a weak read that he and solar were either masons or scum. I had at that point abandoned my weak read, which caused me to be trusting of YH's claim that he also made a weak read about potential mason status of solar. I had made the same mistake as YH claimed to make, which is why I was inclined to believe YH.

However, me making a weak read does not confirm that YH was telling the truth in admitting to making a weak read. I was willing to accept that YH was town, but since mkfuba had recently expression sucpicion of YH I wanted to know if my argument was sufficient to convince mkfuba, and if it wasn't then I would obviously want to know the reason why.
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
YourHarry
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1152 Posts
August 16 2012 23:13 GMT
#403
EDBWOP: "recent post stating that exactly one of Thrawn or Shady are scum..."

Guys this is NOT a majority lynch. Whoever gets the most votes will be lynched.
Never!
Archrun
Profile Joined March 2011
United States20 Posts
August 16 2012 23:14 GMT
#404
Solarsail. You make an excellent point I totally didn't mention that alternative. I guess it stems from me believe that they are both suspicious, but that is correct I should remain myself if one turns green that does not necessary mean the other is red. On that point it doesn't not me the other isn't lowest suspicious, but instead they just become my number one on my scum list.
Solarsail
Profile Joined July 2012
United Kingdom538 Posts
August 16 2012 23:15 GMT
#405
On August 17 2012 08:10 YourHarry wrote:
My strong town read on Thrawn is confirmed by Archrun's recent post stating that exactly Thrawn or Shady are scum. I don't know how he arrived at this conclusion. While it is unlikely that they are bussing each other as scums, how to exclude the possibility that they are both towns?

I would like recruit people to support a lynch against Archrun. Archrun flipping scum likely means that Thrawn and Shady (Thrawn, especially) are probably town.


I would be prepared to swap to Archrun, but I don't want to unvote quite yet in case Thrawn is accidentally lynched, since the Archrun route implies Thrawn is town.
Everyone left over is a member of the OP race and you have to figure out which one of them is the least OP. - CosmicSpiral
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
August 16 2012 23:19 GMT
#406
On August 17 2012 08:10 YourHarry wrote:
My strong town read on Thrawn is confirmed by Archrun's recent post stating that exactly Thrawn or Shady are scum. I don't know how he arrived at this conclusion. While it is unlikely that they are bussing each other as scums, how to exclude the possibility that they are both towns?

I would like recruit people to support a lynch against Archrun. Archrun flipping scum likely means that Thrawn and Shady (Thrawn, especially) are probably town.


You are now Guilty of the exact same thing as Archun except you have worded it without looking blatantly suspicious.
That makes you more suspicious to me than Archun's post did.
I don't see why you have a 'strong town read' on thrawn, I don't think any one in their right mind could have a strong town read on him at this point in time. I could see why you don't think he is the best lynch candidate, but strong town read? give me a break.

In no way at all does Archun's post confirm Thrawn as town. Jesus Christ. First thrawn does it for you and now you are doing it for thrawn.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
August 16 2012 23:20 GMT
#407
On August 17 2012 08:15 Solarsail wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2012 08:10 YourHarry wrote:
My strong town read on Thrawn is confirmed by Archrun's recent post stating that exactly Thrawn or Shady are scum. I don't know how he arrived at this conclusion. While it is unlikely that they are bussing each other as scums, how to exclude the possibility that they are both towns?

I would like recruit people to support a lynch against Archrun. Archrun flipping scum likely means that Thrawn and Shady (Thrawn, especially) are probably town.


I would be prepared to swap to Archrun, but I don't want to unvote quite yet in case Thrawn is accidentally lynched, since the Archrun route implies Thrawn is town.


How does it Imply Thrawn is town?
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
Golbat
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States499 Posts
August 16 2012 23:21 GMT
#408
Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can.

At first, he really plays up how much of a newbie he is, and how he doesn't know anything about playing. He says that he's planning on reading several of the mafia guides in the pregame. But his questions are so simply answered by READING ANY MAFIA GUIDE and or the OP of this thread that it is obvious he did not bother to do any of the reading he claimed. This to me is a clear indicator of someone who wants a simple explanation for their bad play. "Oh sorry i'm just new". I used the new player excuse in XXII and it got me lynched. I'm sure if he had done the reading he would have read "don't just claim newbie lol u will die". That's just one of the things he does that I find to be scummy.

Not to rehash other's discussion on this, but he has been sheeping and avoiding making his own reads the entire game as well. from

On August 15 2012 13:52 thrawn2112 wrote:
YourHarry, who do you find most scummy at this exact point in time?


to

On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:
My two cents on Shady:
My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded.

On Solar:
As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel.

On YH:
So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel.

As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is:

On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason.


On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS Archrun

As per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse.


FOS Archrun

Archrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting.

Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry?


Which is the beginning of a really poor case on Archrun based on that he is lurking and provided the least amount of content. And that's pretty much his case.

He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this.


On August 17 2012 05:34 thrawn2112 wrote:
Can somebody try to convince me why I shouldn't vote for shady and instead vote for a lurker? I am confident in my vote for shady, but there is still the possibility that he is town and that he made a terrible case. I think it is more likely that he is scum, but if someone can convince me that a specific lurker is a way more likely to be scum then I will change my vote. This has nothing to do with my confidence for reading shady as scum.


He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is.
Like why do u use an oven instead of a fire? Coz its fucking better at cooking, that doesnt mean you want the shit to burn.
Solarsail
Profile Joined July 2012
United Kingdom538 Posts
August 16 2012 23:24 GMT
#409
On August 17 2012 08:20 DarthPunk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2012 08:15 Solarsail wrote:
On August 17 2012 08:10 YourHarry wrote:
My strong town read on Thrawn is confirmed by Archrun's recent post stating that exactly Thrawn or Shady are scum. I don't know how he arrived at this conclusion. While it is unlikely that they are bussing each other as scums, how to exclude the possibility that they are both towns?

I would like recruit people to support a lynch against Archrun. Archrun flipping scum likely means that Thrawn and Shady (Thrawn, especially) are probably town.


I would be prepared to swap to Archrun, but I don't want to unvote quite yet in case Thrawn is accidentally lynched, since the Archrun route implies Thrawn is town.


How does it Imply Thrawn is town?


It doesn't. But a vote for Archrun would be accompanied by an assumption Thrawn IS town, or none of Archrun/Thrawn's posts make sense.

Anyway I decided I shouldn't make an impulse switch and we don't have time to argue this out with all participants.
Everyone left over is a member of the OP race and you have to figure out which one of them is the least OP. - CosmicSpiral
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
August 16 2012 23:24 GMT
#410
On August 17 2012 08:12 thrawn2112 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2012 07:58 DarthPunk wrote:
I am really uncomfortable with how fast a counter wagon on the most active player in the game sprung up. I urge everyone to read MY CASE on thrawn.


My initial FOS on yourharry was bad play. I didn't have sufficient evidence to put a FOS on YH. My suspicion was only based off of how many times yh had flip-flopped so I was wary of him. The FOS was unwarranted. I called FOS without putting enough thought into the decision.

I do think that I gave a good explanation of why I later believed he was town:

Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote:At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum.


I clarified my argument after being pressed about it:

Show nested quote +
The 2nd paragraph contained the majority of my thought process concerning YH. Some people thought YH was scum because he was posting as if he had additional information, but I saw a different perspective. YH said he acted the way he did because he made a self-admittedly weak read into gk's post. I then said that I was previously nursing a weak read that he and solar were either masons or scum. I had at that point abandoned my weak read, which caused me to be trusting of YH's claim that he also made a weak read about potential mason status of solar. I had made the same mistake as YH claimed to make, which is why I was inclined to believe YH.

However, me making a weak read does not confirm that YH was telling the truth in admitting to making a weak read. I was willing to accept that YH was town, but since mkfuba had recently expression sucpicion of YH I wanted to know if my argument was sufficient to convince mkfuba, and if it wasn't then I would obviously want to know the reason why.


This is not a good argument. I am inclined to believe Your Harry does not give a town read. at best it is null. and is incredibly weak in the context of you pushing your 'town read' so heavily. There is actually no argument present at all besides some poor justifications for your backflip.

"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
August 16 2012 23:29 GMT
#411
Kier, could I get a vote count now that everyone has cast a vote?
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
August 16 2012 23:40 GMT
#412
Vote count, cowboys:

ShadySands (4): thrawn2112, SolarSail, mkfuba07, Jhuyt
thrawn2112 (4): ShadySands, Archrun, DarthPunk, Golbat
Archrun (3): Stutters695. Ochrow, YourHarry
Jhuyt (2): goodkarma, Z-Boson

Shady Sands currently set to be lynched. 20 minutes until the deadline!
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
August 16 2012 23:42 GMT
#413
On August 17 2012 08:40 marvellosity wrote:
Vote count, cowboys:

ShadySands (4): thrawn2112, SolarSail, mkfuba07, Jhuyt
thrawn2112 (4): ShadySands, Archrun, DarthPunk, Golbat
Archrun (3): Stutters695. Ochrow, YourHarry
Jhuyt (2): goodkarma, Z-Boson

Shady Sands currently set to be lynched. 20 minutes until the deadline!


Er. What? It is a tie. What happens then?
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
Golbat
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States499 Posts
August 16 2012 23:43 GMT
#414
In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first wins (or loses).
Like why do u use an oven instead of a fire? Coz its fucking better at cooking, that doesnt mean you want the shit to burn.
Golbat
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States499 Posts
August 16 2012 23:43 GMT
#415
from the OP
Like why do u use an oven instead of a fire? Coz its fucking better at cooking, that doesnt mean you want the shit to burn.
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
August 16 2012 23:43 GMT
#416
On August 17 2012 08:40 marvellosity wrote:
Shady Sands currently set to be lynched.


More explicitly, first to 4 gets lynched.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
August 16 2012 23:44 GMT
#417
On August 17 2012 08:24 DarthPunk wrote:There is actually no argument present at all besides some poor justifications for your backflip.


You say my justifications were poor, and I say they weren't.....

Harry referred to information that only he claimed to have. Later he took back the claim he made based off that information. He revealed the information to be that he thought that solar and gk were masons because of the wording of gk's post.

This statement.....

On August 15 2012 13:20 YourHarry wrote:
Shady. I guess there is a small chance that I could be wrong. But if I am right, it is not a good idea to reveal this information. Let's move on for now.


......gives credence to his story about him thinking solar and gk are masons.

After this post:

On August 15 2012 14:14 mkfuba07 wrote:
@YourHarry:
When did you check your role PM this time?


I began to think that yourharry and solar were masons. I realized later that I was reading way too much into everything.

My experience of thinking that solar is a mason and realizing that I was making a weak read is what caused me to trust yourharry's claim that he made a weak read on the mason-status of solar.
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
August 16 2012 23:44 GMT
#418
On August 17 2012 08:43 Golbat wrote:
In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first wins (or loses).


OK thanks.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
August 16 2012 23:46 GMT
#419
[QUOTE]On August 17 2012 08:44 thrawn2112 wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 17 2012 08:24 DarthPunk wrote:There is actually no argument present at all besides some poor justifications for your backflip.[/QUOTE]

You say my justifications were poor, and I say they weren't.....

That's fine. But is not a particularly compelling reason to change my mind when they so obviously are poor. Let me be clear.
The justifications you gave would be acceptable to give Your Harry the benefit of the doubt. But to make a town read and then champion that read. Not a chance.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
August 16 2012 23:47 GMT
#420
EBWOP:

On August 17 2012 08:46 DarthPunk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2012 08:44 thrawn2112 wrote:
On August 17 2012 08:24 DarthPunk wrote:There is actually no argument present at all besides some poor justifications for your backflip.


You say my justifications were poor, and I say they weren't.....


That's fine. But is not a particularly compelling reason to change my mind when they so obviously are poor. Let me be clear.
The justifications you gave would be acceptable to give Your Harry the benefit of the doubt. But to make a town read and then champion that read. Not a chance.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
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