|
On August 27 2012 16:36 thrawn2112 wrote:
I didn't know why you guys wouldn't believe my vig claim.... a lot of the case against me was because of how I was pointing at archrun the whole game... yet you thought me being vig and shooting archrun was unreasonable. there was also the possibilty of an sk but that's something you could have figured out by waiting
I made a comment about it during the game but even I wasn't exactly sure why I voted you over YH at that particular point. Darth has brought up here in the post-game that you and Ochrow were linked by speculation and that it was broken based on your flip never occurred to me until now. In retrospect a YH vote from me would have cleared both of us considering it was him pushing the mason case, unless I am mistaken about who brought the link up in-game.
|
On August 27 2012 16:36 thrawn2112 wrote:
I didn't know why you guys wouldn't believe my vig claim.... a lot of the case against me was because of how I was pointing at archrun the whole game... yet you thought me being vig and shooting archrun was unreasonable. there was also the possibilty of an sk but that's something you could have figured out by waiting
You had no breadcrumbs, You seemed scummy as hell, your claim was weak in that it was not clear and the Archun flip made you look really bad. It was of my opinion that your claim was a desperate scum looking to hide after the real vig had shot archun. And you clai was so bad that the real vig did not see the point in counter claiming and was instead being vocal about you being lynched. At the end I was worried that there had been no counterclaim and that you may have been telling the truth and thus I went for YH instead.
|
On August 27 2012 17:31 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2012 16:36 thrawn2112 wrote:
I didn't know why you guys wouldn't believe my vig claim.... a lot of the case against me was because of how I was pointing at archrun the whole game... yet you thought me being vig and shooting archrun was unreasonable. there was also the possibilty of an sk but that's something you could have figured out by waiting You had no breadcrumbs, You seemed scummy as hell, your claim was weak in that it was not clear and the Archun flip made you look really bad. It was of my opinion that your claim was a desperate scum looking to hide after the real vig had shot archun. And you clai was so bad that the real vig did not see the point in counter claiming and was instead being vocal about you being lynched. At the end I was worried that there had been no counterclaim and that you may have been telling the truth and thus I went for YH instead.
i considered breadcrumbing and even pm'd marv asking if it was allowed but for some reason i did not follow through. oh well first game... what ya gonna do
|
On August 27 2012 17:44 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2012 17:31 DarthPunk wrote:On August 27 2012 16:36 thrawn2112 wrote:
I didn't know why you guys wouldn't believe my vig claim.... a lot of the case against me was because of how I was pointing at archrun the whole game... yet you thought me being vig and shooting archrun was unreasonable. there was also the possibilty of an sk but that's something you could have figured out by waiting You had no breadcrumbs, You seemed scummy as hell, your claim was weak in that it was not clear and the Archun flip made you look really bad. It was of my opinion that your claim was a desperate scum looking to hide after the real vig had shot archun. And you clai was so bad that the real vig did not see the point in counter claiming and was instead being vocal about you being lynched. At the end I was worried that there had been no counterclaim and that you may have been telling the truth and thus I went for YH instead. i considered breadcrumbing and even pm'd marv asking if it was allowed but for some reason i did not follow through. oh well first game... what ya gonna do
If you are ever going to claim you should leave some breadcrumbs or at least say that you shot Archun 1 min before the day post.
I didn't leave any breadcrumbs either though. but I was never going to claim cop. This might have been a mistake in hindsight. But even when I was being retarded and wanted a mass claim I was just gonna claim VT.
|
Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On August 27 2012 17:57 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2012 17:44 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 27 2012 17:31 DarthPunk wrote:On August 27 2012 16:36 thrawn2112 wrote:
I didn't know why you guys wouldn't believe my vig claim.... a lot of the case against me was because of how I was pointing at archrun the whole game... yet you thought me being vig and shooting archrun was unreasonable. there was also the possibilty of an sk but that's something you could have figured out by waiting You had no breadcrumbs, You seemed scummy as hell, your claim was weak in that it was not clear and the Archun flip made you look really bad. It was of my opinion that your claim was a desperate scum looking to hide after the real vig had shot archun. And you clai was so bad that the real vig did not see the point in counter claiming and was instead being vocal about you being lynched. At the end I was worried that there had been no counterclaim and that you may have been telling the truth and thus I went for YH instead. i considered breadcrumbing and even pm'd marv asking if it was allowed but for some reason i did not follow through. oh well first game... what ya gonna do If you are ever going to claim you should leave some breadcrumbs or at least say that you shot Archun 1 min before the day post. I didn't leave any breadcrumbs either though. but I was never going to claim cop. This might have been a mistake in hindsight. But even when I was being retarded and wanted a mass claim I was just gonna claim VT.
I honestly would believe a vigi claim that had no breadcrumbs. If there is no counter-claim, there is literally zero reason to disbelieve a vigi claim. In a mini like this vigis are single-shot so once they shoot, they are just VTs. there's no need to not claim.
No matter how bad thrawn looked, the fact of the matter is, in this mini he did spend tons of time attacking archrun, then archrun died, then he claimed vigi and there was no counter claim. I cannot possibly imagine a situation in which he is Mafia and this happens. In fact, the simple fact of an unopposed vigi claim should have completely removed him from the D2 lynch pool.
Once he claimed Vigi there was still some possibility he was incredibly stupid scum, but after several hours once everyone has posted, if there's no counter claim, he is confirmed not-mafia. What happened D2 was the lynch of a confirmed not-mafia. Also IIRC he spent a fair amount of D2 writing cases and hunting scum.
That being said, mislynching once or twice isn't too unusual for town. These things always generate evidence.
PS: in a normal mini if you are ever vigi, and you shoot someone, and someone fakeclaims claiming your hit, counterclaim them. once your bullet is spent you're just a VT, and your life should be a price you gladly pay to take down a scum.
|
Yeah the lack of a counter claim was why I was against a Thrawn lynch on day 2. In fact only two townies voted for Thrawn. Obvious, who replaced in so didn't have time and I assumed jump on the leading wagon and Solar. I think the biggest contribution to his mislynch was the fact that the town vote was split (GK voting for Jhyut over YH) and that both GK and myself did not push our Lynches harder. Particularly myself as I had 3 votes on Harry at that point.
|
I just played anti-town for the first two days and then obviously the remainder of the time. I pretty much deserved to be up for that lynch.
I'll be playing better next game.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
I'm home! Hopefully I'll have some stuff written up later ^_^
|
Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
Welcome back, Marv!
I thought I'd just elaborate a bit more on WIFOM since I see people talking about it a lot in newbie games and it's kind of important you guys understand it. First off, WIFOM is not a binary. I mean, it is in terms of something could be just mod-confirmed, but really we're talking about a broad range of how confirmable a fact is.
At one end, we have moments of pure WIFOM. Some examples:
1) In the last seconds of a day he's gonna get lynched, a scum player shifts his vote from one guy to another. This has no impact, and literally couldn't have any impact, on who was lynched. The dying scum player ostensibly only did this to confuse you. Based on his voteswitch, what can you learn?
2) You are a town roleblocker, and you know who both of the scum are. Before the DT died he told town he had a blue check on you, and your breadcrumbs match the roleblocks that happened previously. You've claimed in-thread, and it's time to claim what your night action is. Do you roleblock the scum you say you're roleblocking, or the other one?
3) Chezinu wrote a sentence and posted it. What does this mean? Can you learn any information from it?
At the other end, we have moments of pure non-WIFOM. Some examples:
1) The mod sends you a PM at the start of your Normal Mini game. The PM states that you are a Veteran. What is your role? What is your motivation?
2) iGrok claimed DT in the thread with some results. The following night, he was shot, and flipped DT. What info does this give you about scum?
3) You ask the mod if it's possible there's an SK in the game. He tells you that there are no third parties. Is there an SK in the game?
Anything LESS sure than examples like this falls on the sliding scale between pure WIFOM and WTHTP (Wine That's Hard To Poison). Even WTHTP is a form of WIFOM, though-- scum could take enormously terrible risks or do really really dumb stuff. Maybe a scum with plenty of town cred could claim DT during D2 with one result, which is a red result on a town player. This would make no sense since once the town player was lynched the scum player would be lynched the next day, but you still can't be 100% sure about the DT claim even so.
All this being said, if you make a case against someone saying "look, you defended all the flipped scum with bad logic and sheeped the other cases" a pretty classic newb defense is "well, I wouldn't have done that if I were scum, it would be too obvious-- so your entire case is WIFOM lolol" ;_; this is not a good use of WIFOM. It is an example of WTHTP. When we consider scum day actions, yes they want to distance from each other, but they typically try not to actually lynch each other. As scum you certainly could spend all your time attacking your buddies, but that is Wine That's Hard to Poison-- at some point, you'll either actually get one of them lynched, or it'll become obvious you're just trying to look like you're attacking them.
You can see how, given my definition, WIFOM as it is used in newbie games is a horrible travesty against the acronym. Any time you're in a game and you want to say "WIFOM" you should seriously consider whether what you're talking about is really WIFOM. To an extent, yes, everything in the game that's not mod-confirmed is somewhat WIFOM-ey-- but don't let that stop you from realizing some goblets are more easily poisoned than others.
EDIT: Not that scum don't distance and bus of course-- but you can still look to see them doing this when you are scumhunting as town, it can look different. I'm just saying that there are things that indicate scumminess, and saying "well I'd never play this scummy if I were scum, so your case is WIFOM" should literally never work as a defense.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
BH, you douche, why you steal one of my subjects? :< 
|
Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
Oh lol sorry. I'll wait for your post-game writeup. FWIW WIFOM is a pretty expansive subject so you should still keep it in even if I dumped a textwall here.
|
3) Chezinu wrote a sentence and posted it. What does this mean? Can you learn any information from it?
qft
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Firstly, I'd like to extend huge thanks to Keirathi and BlazingHand. I really couldn't have hosted this game without all the help Keirathi gave me, and BlazingHand was pure epic as town coach.
Edit: Holy shit, I forgot VisceraEyes who coached scum. My brain was town-focused when I wrote this. Many thanks to VE for coaching my little scumlets :>
I've just been reading through the post-game comments. Really everyone has done pretty well at discussing what went on... all of a sudden I feel a bit redundant T.T Na, really I'm glad people are capable of critically looking at stuff and learning what went on. Stuff I was going to cover like WIFOM has been discussed perfectly already. So anyway...
Voting, Plurality Voting, that kinda shizzle
This one is pretty important. goodkarma reflected both the good and the bad opinions on Plurality Voting. For the first two cycles he took it as meaning "lol can vote whoever i like and someone will still get lynched!" and finally, Day 3, he realised that wasn't the case at all. Under plurality voting, almost as much as majority, town needs to consolidate its voting. Plurality voting is not an excuse just to vote for your best read, and screw what the rest of town are doing. I'd like to show you the final Vote count for day 2:
Final Vote Count:
Thrawn2112 (5): DarthPunk, Golbat, Solarsail, goodkarma, YourHarry, Z-BosoN, Obvious.660, Solarsail, YourHarry
Obvious.660 (1): goodkarma, thrawn2112, Solarsail
YourHarry (3): DarthPunk, Jhuyt, Stutters695
goodkarma (0): Obvious.660
Jhuyt (1): thrawn2112, YourHarry
If you'll recall, at least a couple of people jumped over on to thrawn at the end of the day. The votes are 5,3,1,1. What are these outlying votes on the 1,1? thrawn - the dude getting lynched, and goodkarma, the one who thought thrawn was probably townie. These votes are completely, completely useless. Imagine for a moment if thrawn and goodkarma had consolidated on to YourHarry some time before this. It's pretty likely that actually YourHarry would have been lynched Day 2. Don't ever waste your votes, guys.
My next bit on voting is going to run into my thoughts about thrawn. I'd like to show you the votecount shortly before the end of Day 1:
On August 17 2012 08:40 marvellosity wrote:
Vote count, cowboys:
ShadySands (4): thrawn2112, SolarSail, mkfuba07, Jhuyt
thrawn2112 (4): ShadySands, Archrun, DarthPunk, Golbat
Archrun (3): Stutters695. Ochrow, YourHarry
Jhuyt (2): goodkarma, Z-Boson
Shady Sands currently set to be lynched. 20 minutes until the deadline!
This votecount, when looked at after the lynch, should strongly suggest that thrawn was town. thrawn was the main counterwagon to Shady, but votes were also spread liberally across two other candidates. 4/4/3/2. This suggests a general apathy to exactly which candidate was lynched. Shady flipped town. What if thrawn was scum? It is highly likely that scum would have been trying to polarise the votes, or trying to push alternate candidates.
I've highlighted the scum in the votes above. Look at how little they give a flying fuck about who gets lynched. Golbat had his vote parked on thrawn for most of the day. Z-Boson was merrily sitting on an outside candidate, and YourHarry was sitting on yet another outside candidate (before his late swap). You can see pretty clearly they didn't give a diddly squat WHICH of thrawn and Shady was lynched. When a scummer is up for lynch, especially on day 1 like this, scum have to do something about it (pushing counterwagons being the main thing). Close, spread out voting = likely that it's two townies up for lynch.
thrawn, vigi claim, associative cases
As some of you in the obsQT could probably tell, I loved thrawn this game. Newbie? Sure. But just LOOK at the effort and thought that went into his posts. Shady, and perhaps others too, used his first post talking about the SK against him. Why? Look at how quickly he dropped the issue when people weren't interested. In close conjunction with this, look at the effort and thought he put into the post. Was it wasted? Sure. But there was clearly thought in it. I would invite anyone who found thrawn scummy to go back and read his filter, and just get a sense for the amount of time, effort and thought into his posts (even if he was sometimes wrong). I'm aware of course that I had prior knowledge of alignments, but his play just screamed townie to me. Further, look at his defences to his accusations. They were clear, to the point, not overly emotional (seriously impressive stuff) AND he was doing his own scumhunting. In short, townie defence.
On to the vigi claim. It's been covered already, so I'll be brief. Stuff like there being no counter-claim has already been addressed. And there's Occam's Razor (solution which needs the least assumptions is likely to be true).
town thrawn - a newbie vigi who shoots his main scumread night 1. That's literally all the assumptions you need to make.
scum thrawn - here it gets a little more fun. After the nightkills, scum do not know where the other kill came from. It could be a vigilante, or it could be a serial killer. If it's serial killer, you've given him a free scum target to shoot at the next night or whenever he wants to. If it's vigilante, you are claiming his shot, and you will instantly die to a counterclaim (thrawn was suspicious in the thread, so it wouldn't even be 1 for 1 - just straight death). It would have been literally INSANE for scum to claim a shot when they had no idea where it came from or who committed it.
So, we either have townie thrawn, a newbie vigi shooting his main scumread, or we have scum thrawn, claiming an unknown kill and guaranteeing himself death. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Associative cases - don't bloody do them until someone has flipped. They're bad. Somehow thrawn and YourHarry got tied together during Day 1 and Day 2. And to town's detriment. They were different alignments and yet people were tying them together as the same alignment. Just look at the damage it can cause. It led to the actions of one player being used to indict another player before either have flipped, which is just nonsense. I don't want to say TOO much about it, but remember this?
On August 20 2012 13:25 DarthPunk wrote:
OK we are in a terrible situation. I blame myself for being active and building the majority of the case on Thrawn along with Goodkarma. whilst allowing others to contribute nothing at all. I had a very strong scum read on Your harry. But a lot of it was based on being scum with Thrawn and Obvious.
noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! :O :<
Some player comments:
goodkarma: Of course, town MVP. Day 1 and Day 2 were shaky for you to start off with. My frustration in the hostQT:
marvellosity was signed in when posted
08-19-2012
07:49 PM ET (US)
Day 2: goodkarma thinks YH is scum but for some fucking reason isn't voting for him??
At the start of day 3, he 'got' plurality, and started playing in absolute beast-mode. I have not a lot to say because he simply nailed all the scum. So nice.
DarthPunk: Your play was quite clearly townie, as reflected by the mutual strong townreads you and GK had on each other. However, as indicated by my quote above, your play did cause me quite some frustration
marvellosity was signed in when posted
08-19-2012
06:32 AM ET (US)
2nd part of day 2: DarthPunk making WAY TOO MANY CONNECTIONS between thrawn and YourHarry. good lord.
You kinda managed to nail Z-Boson, but didn't even realise it:
marvellosity was signed in when posted
08-21-2012
01:01 PM ET (US)
Darthpunk: "Z-boson has appeared town like and active but has just sheeped cases and not been proactive in pushing them. Pretty much a neutral read." - definition of a scumbag!
marvellosity was signed in when posted
08-22-2012
07:48 AM ET (US)
day 3: Darthpunk for some reason not reading/responding to his strongest townread's (GK) case on YourHarry? Why?
Honestly, you're pretty decent and I think you know how you can improve.
Obvious: I think you did a not bad job replacing a scummy lurker. Your huge WTF moment was when you said thrawn was almost certainly vigi and later voted for him. My mind was blown. Anyway, I have replaced in for scummy lurkers on at least a couple of occasions. I usually make it pretty clear I can't be held accountable for their actions, and that people should hold you accountable for your own. I don't think you were adamant enough about this.
Stutters: quite well played in parts, you were on to YourHarry early, and made good points on him. Unfortunately, goodkarma is right and on several occasions you promised reads and gave nothing. Don't do that, it's really bad.
SolarSail: you just about managed to bring it back, right at the end, by increasing your activity. For that, I definitely commend you, and it helped town to win. Your play this game was a perfect example of why townies need to NOT lurk and to form their own opinions. Because for much of the game, you were almost indistinguishable from Golbat, except one of you was scum and one of you was town. It's that kinda stuff that loses town games. You seem to know this though 
Z-BosoN: I enjoyed your play this game. You were pretty good ^_^ Obviously the last-minute vote-switch attempt was a total disaster. As scum, it's super important to be able to realise when you need to go into full-bus mode. If you're decisive and fast-acting as scum, it's much harder to pin you down.
thrawn: as previously mentioned, I thought you actually played quite well. You were the first player to realise YourHarry's apathy to the Day 1 lynch. It's a shame you didn't have the courage of your convictions. Speaking of that, other townies could have picked up on YH's play during the Day 1 lynch. Take a look back, guys, and see how little YH gave a shit about who was lynched Day 1.
|
thanks marv... I made this case against yh during d2 and nobody paid any attention to it including myself. when i made that (early in d2) everyone was so sure that I was scum that they just kinda ignored it. And yeah, my vote for jhuyt was a completely wasted vote. He and yh were my top scumreads and I voted for the one that had no chance of being lynched? wtf thrawn
|
Err. Sorry for the bump was doing meta for Mario and got confused. My bad. SORRY.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
