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On July 31 2012 00:39 Shady Sands wrote:
Darth, I'm getting really bad vibes about Promethelax's "town circle"/"town leadership" ideas as well. No idea why he would choose to lurk D1 and then immediately start to argue for something like this so quickly.
I don't think he lurked on day one. His schedule and my time-zone actually synch up fairly well. and at that time lots of people are asleep and not much happens in the thread while the US is asleep  . That being said it blows my mind how hard he seems to be trying to establish his Townieness and I don't know what possible advantage it could bring.
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Right it is 2am again. This game makes me sleep alot less lol. I am FAR less busy tomorrow than I was today and I'll use that time to play Mafia <3
Night.
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On July 31 2012 00:36 Shady Sands wrote:Here is the link to the number of possible scum in a C9++ format: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++#Scum_RolesShow nested quote +Scum Roles
TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather It will be a random selection from one of those options, which means either 2 or 3 scum are possible. I'm not sure how Obvious knows there are three scum.
Oh, there isn't a set number in this game? Well, thanks for bringing that to my attention. I've been looking at XXI since it ended last night and I keep thinking this game has 3 as well. So there could be more or less. I'd spend time looking at other C9++ games but that would just be more time spent outside the thread. Glad you corrected me on this, thanks. Honest mistake.
On July 31 2012 00:43 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 18:57 Obvious.660 wrote:
DarthPunk also explained that he would be willing to change his vote from Mordanis to Golbat to avoid a mislynch with his post 40 minutes later. Sounds appropriate given the situation, from a town perspective. But again, we're at the two scenarios as above where we're either seeing avoiding looking bad for the mislynch, or staying around to ensure there is a lynch. OK when I read this I lol'd. This is just wrong and made me question whether he even read my filter. Let me clear things up for you. Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 04:35 DarthPunk wrote:
With that being said at the moment we are headed towards a no lynch which I am certainly not in favour of. I am willing to alter my vote to ensure this does not happen. Hopefully this gets resolved shortly as I would love to get some sleep. So after reading this post. you summarize it as this: Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 18:57 Obvious.660 wrote:
DarthPunk also explained that he would be willing to change his vote from Mordanis to Golbat to avoid a mislynch Where did I say I would vote for Golbat? I voted for my best read. I didn't want a no-lynch and as my biggest scum read was pushing the case and band-waggoning his main rival for the lynch concurrently I didn't really want to vote for either of them. You entirely misrepresented what I said and I fail to see the reason behind it. I need to read your filter very carefully.
You are correct, and that should have read no-lynch, not mislynch. Consider your correction my EBWOP.
Coffee didn't help I guess, errors abound, so off to sleep I go. See you later after RAW ~12 hrs.
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Man Prom. I just don't know what to do about you.
You are acting so close to the way you acted in XIX :o
Changing your posting patterns/habits after day 1 - check
Buddying up with people - check
Repeating town/pro-town/etc a lot - check
Trying to help lead discussion - check
Like I said, if you are town, I really don't want to mislynch you. But I'm certainly not convinced that you are town yet.
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@Zorkmid
On July 31 2012 00:28 Zorkmid wrote:
@alan133
What do you say about Obv's case against you? The post was almost two hours before yours, but you make no mention of it.
Did you just not see it?
I read back and was wondering what Obvious' case, and then I saw this:
+ Show Spoiler +(Direct copy paste of text. Text format will be lost) First I'll take a look at alan133's posts:
Some behavior analysis: consistent in his methods for determining his best scum target. His vote on Shady Sands was not willy-nilly, and he considered the cases against Golbat and Mordanis as well before casting his vote. Solid play on this end, in my opinion, at least throughout D1.
On July 29 2012 03:55 alan133 wrote:
However, loosely quoting someone: "The goal of lynching is to get scum", I am still in favor of Shady lynch instead of Golbat for I believe the former has a much higher chance to flip scum, in other words, I am keeping my vote, unless it is really necessary for me to switch to make a lynch happen, but I will probably be sleeping as the vote is tally. I urge all who has not voted (or already voted but not into the potential lynch target) to reconsider their votes aiming for a lynch.
At this point there were 5 votes for Golbat. Two possibilities for this rather well timed post:
Town alan133 wants to make sure we don't get into a no-lynch scenario, as that gives us little to work with for actual information that can be 100% confirmed (a flip)
or
Scum alan133 is setting himself up to ensure a mislynch won't end up looking bad on him if he has to put his vote in as the one of the last people on the Golbat vote list.
Of these two scenarios, I'm more easily convinced that alan133 is acting in the best interests of the town. I did want to mention this though if any suspicions arise regarding his votes or actions in the future.
I have a question for alan133:
How did you make sense of goodkarma's post regarding Keirathi? I'm not really able to pinpoint exactly where that case even is, so you'll need to point it out for me, please.
I did answer his question, but I mistaken him to be Mordanis. Mordanis was the one who suggested we look at non-Golbat lyncher, so when I saw the big chunk of green and red text I naturally thought this was coming from Mordanis.
EBWOP
On July 30 2012 20:09 alan133 wrote:@ MordanisObvious Show nested quote +I have a question for alan133:
How did you make sense of goodkarma's post regarding Keirathi? I'm not really able to pinpoint exactly where that case even is, so you'll need to point it out for me, please. I somehow mistaken Kei for aRyuujin. At the back of my mind Goodkarma specifically picked Kei out of the 3 lurkers in his day 1 case before switching over to Golbat, which when I looked for it found out it was actually Ryu. I apologize for my mistake and to avoid further confusion: EBWOP: Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 02:29 alan133 wrote:
@Keirathi
After going through Kei's filter, goodkarma's case on Kei made much more sense.]
Kei's first page in his filter since the game started has literally zero scum hunting. He dedicate most of his post passively defending targets of other people's case.
While I apologize for the mistake, I don't think it discredit my points raised against Kei. I would like others to look into my reasoning.
I've mistaken two players twice, and in one of them I am EBWOP-ing for mistaken a player for another. I apologize for playing this poorly, I will be more careful next time.
Now onto the "Alan could be a scum trying to distant himself from a mislynch". This is all based on Mordanis' "I think scum could be trying to distant himself from the mislynch". I did not vote for Golbat because his play was strikingly similar to mine in my last game, which coincidently I am also a VIG. Of course, there is no way to tell, and people who voted for Golbat has decent arguments. However, I voted for Shady because I believe he is much likely to flip scum compared to Golbat. There is no reason to not go with my read, especially when it does not risk a no-lynch.
Also, I agree on Mordanis' logic. Looking back at Golbat's post, his later characteristics such as "unsure who to vote" could be easily interpreted as scummy. One scum could have easily start the bandwagon on him, and the remaining ones could have easily hide. I believe it is highly possible that there is at least one scum hiding among the non-golbat vote crowd.
Following this line of logic I also realized MrMedic failed to vote, so is he in the "not on Golbat's bus" group? While I don't think this automatically qualifies him as scum, I absolutely hate players who missed a vote; there is no commitment made for us to judge such players.
@Keir
Seems like Keir has not replied, I noticed he is sleeping, so while I eagerly wait for his response:
When I read about your night post urging other people to make cases, my impression on you is that you were scummy to try to wait for other players to chip in their cases, which allow you to judge who to go after that could have benefit scum. I went through the day 1 post up to Golbat's lynch focusing on your posts and found you it matches what I thought: your filter reveals while you were posting a lot, you did not make any hard stance against any players. You made one case which leads to your vote on Golbat, and spent most other time deflecting cases against you, and other times defending players, or trying to befriend new players.
I moved over looking at your day 2 posts and found out you actually did some scum hunting on your own, which partially negate my claim that you were "not aligning early towards any scum reads". However, I am not a big fan of your "small talk" with Promethelax about a past game you guys were in. Please focus on this game only, unless you meant to mention how Promethelax plays in the past to build a case. Also, I found this:
+ Show Spoiler +On July 30 2012 16:32 Keirathi wrote:Holy cow. Nice case. This is the the kind of analysis that takes really careful combing through filters and picking up on extremely subtle patterns. I'm eagerly awaiting a response from Ange now.
While some may not find this post scummy at all, it fits into my reads on you, that you "did not make a stance", "Wait for other players to talk", and then "push accordingly". I guess you did indeed imply that you agree with Mordanis' case when you say it is a nice case, but these were not very committing stance that can always be dismissed when needed.
TL:DR I am not a big fan of Kei's "passive" scum hunt play that allows him to sit back and judge the direction townies headed, while possibly moulding his own stance to get the best out of scum. I would like to see Kei's response.
@Shady Sands
While I agree with Mordanis' logic, it feels kind of weird that Shady Sands suddenly switch from "Mordanis is very red" to "we are best friends eva!!!"
+ Show Spoiler +They knew how whichever candidate was up would flip, so they had the ability to determine where in the vote they would go to minimize their chance to get lynched D2.
I think Mordanis hits the nail right on the head here--this is the main lens through which we should be analyzing every single D1 post. Voting order is very important here. Who joined the Golbat train, and when?
Also, we all are familiar with Shady's "If Golbat is town Mordanis is very red" talk. Shady seems to forget that he is one of the main force behind Golbat lynch when he is actively selling that idea. Shady was very firm about his conviction even when other players were trying to point out why it is flawed.
Somehow, all this made sense to him immediately after Mordanis' post. While I am not a big fan of accusing someone when he/she actually "changed" according to what other people have told him/her to, I argue that Mordanis' later posts is very townie and even Shady could not continue to pursuit a Mordanis lynch. This seems like "an easy way out" for Shady.
One other thing I noted is that Shady Sands is not included in the "not on Golbat train" list. This smells to me like he is trying to exclude himself from the "to watch" list to shift the focus away from himself.
Also, remember the "active scum" thing he mentioned? [It is late here (3:00am, started writing on 12:00am) I have to end this post ASAP, but if you need any details or quotes please ask me], it seems like he is selling himself as an plausible "active scum" (he is very active) to avoid a day 1 lynch. Also, compare his post's content of day 1 and day 2, and you see a massive drop in actual content posted.
TL:DR Shady Sands looks very scummy - I believe he will flip red
I am off to bed now, cheers.
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MrMedic, I really would like to hear a little bit more from you.
I don't have any strong scum reads at this point at all, and the whole Golbat thing leaves me gun shy to start pushing up on another active poster. Unless I reach some epiphany soon, or am convinced by someones case, my next vote will likely fall upon a lurker.
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On July 30 2012 18:37 Ange777 wrote:
TLDR:
I don't really understand what exactly it is that is supposed to make me scummy. You might say that I am throwing suspicion at every single player (which is an exaggeration!) but I am only trying to get people to talk by pointing out flaws in their posting. Golbat was not online otherwise I would have pressured him for more information so I looked into other players instead.
Something doesn't sit right with me about this post....
If I were you, and it was my goal to look into other players, I would strongly consider moving my vote onto them. It's very tough to pressure a player so late in a day cycle when other players have multiple votes hanging over them.
A vote on GK would have been much scarier than a FoS, don't you think?
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@alan: my electricity is out, but I'll respond when I can. Posting from my phone is possible, but a giant pain in the ass.
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Ok, power back on. Working on my reply to you now alan
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On July 31 2012 00:49 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2012 00:39 Shady Sands wrote:
Darth, I'm getting really bad vibes about Promethelax's "town circle"/"town leadership" ideas as well. No idea why he would choose to lurk D1 and then immediately start to argue for something like this so quickly. I don't think he lurked on day one. His schedule and my time-zone actually synch up fairly well. and at that time lots of people are asleep and not much happens in the thread while the US is asleep . That being said it blows my mind how hard he seems to be trying to establish his Townieness and I don't know what possible advantage it could bring.
Being a clear town assets helps town hugely, it removes a townie from suspicion. Look at MTG where I played like crap (that is had no idea what the fuck was happening) but Nova_Terra still called me one of the best town players that was because it was clear that I was town even though me reads until right at the end were terrible. In one of the guides (I think it is Qotal's) it says that one of the most important things a townie can do is prove their innocence and I have read a lot of postgames in which hosts say that looking townie is something town needs to work on.
I kinda wish I had played worse as scum so my meta wasn't so similar but ah well, nothing I can do about that now. I actually think my meta is really different and I think it is easy to spot the differences but me pointing them out doesn't help town read me since I am aware of my meta I could have intentionally changed it.
GK: Since you have explained your reasoning ##: Unvote
For those that think I am scummy I would urge you to actually see the things I am putting into the thread. I have provided good cases, I am willing to change my reads as new behaviours are exhibited and new information comes to light. I am acting in a pro-town manner in this game because I am playing with a town win con.
Keir: Honestly I don;t want to lead discussion. I'd love to be able to provide cases and let others lead the talking but since no one has stepped in I am trying to provide some guidance to the other nubs here. My obsessive behaviour has lead to me reading a ton of mafia games, and related qts as well as guides and host notes. The amount of information I have ingested makes me feel pretty good about my general game knowledge and I am trying to help town with that knowledge.
Every single member of town should try to establish their towniness. It is awful play to fail to do that (see our D1 mislynch of a guy who totally failed to establish himself as town and town was punished for it). I am trying to do three things: establish myself as town, create a positive town atmosphere and build good cases on people who appear scummy to me. I would argue that 100% of my behaviour falls into line with those three goals and you would do well to realize that I am working towards a town victory and not a scum one.
My posting style will change again soon since I have work for the next five days, starting tomorrow. I'll try to be more active than I was in the early game but I won't be as crazy active as I have been these past few days.
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On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote:
@Keir
Seems like Keir has not replied, I noticed he is sleeping, so while I eagerly wait for his response:
I'm not exactly sure what you want me to reply to. I assume you are talking about this: + Show Spoiler +On July 30 2012 19:23 alan133 wrote:@Kei + Show Spoiler +On July 30 2012 04:13 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 02:29 alan133 wrote:Keirathi also said this: I'm not going to make bad cases just to put pressure on people. Like I also said, making cases is what keeps the game moving, but when they are just bad cases you give the scum ammunition to push their own agendas. Are you actually discouraging discussions here? For all I know scums can push their own agendas based on these "bad" discussions as well? You are right, scum can push agendas from "bad" discussion. That's exactly what I said. My point was that pointing out every little thing that you find scummy isn't helping the thread find scum, because one or two little scummy blips does not a scum make. THAT'S the reason I put my scum reads all into one big post. Its much harder for scum to refute a lot of points at one time than one or two points on multiple occasions. Also, things like my reply to goodkarma ARE scum hunting in a sense. By saying that I find people townie, I am narrowing down my suspect list. The problem I have against you is that you were not standing out nor wanting to commit to a case. You argued that you don't want to make "bad cases" in case scums make use of it. While I don't totally agree: How are we supposed to scum hunt during the day without putting the pressure on based on any little evidence we found, in the night post you changed your position and suddenly encourages us people, who made cases based on one or two scumslip, to keep up with building more cases. It seems like when you talk about not wanting to build "bad cases", you are putting yourself in a position to sit back, while encourage other players to go at against each other, and then finally build your own case based on how the discussion is going. The "refrain from building bad case" was meant to excuse yourself when people accuse you of lacking scum hunting commitment. I don't buy the "narrowing down" suspects as a form of scum hunting.
Not really much to comment on though. I don't believe that one or two little scummy things necessarily makes someone scum, but PATTERNS of scummy things do. All the cases that I've posted have been based on patterns of doing things that I find scummy. I understand that without a little pressure, people aren't going to voluntarily make those scummy mistakes though. It's just my way of playing, and it might be wrong, or bad, or whatever you want to call it, but it has worked for me in my past games. I got called out in I Can't Believe Its Not Themed game for not making solid day 1 reads and insisting that I preferred making reads based on patterns/connections as well. I just hate being wrong, and its much easier to be right when I have more to go on.
As far as changing my position and suddenly encouraging people to make cases based on one or two scumslips after the night post, can you point out exactly where I did that. I looked back through my filter and I don't see me saying that at all, so I'd specifically like to know what post you misunderstood.
On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote:
When I read about your night post urging other people to make cases, my impression on you is that you were scummy to try to wait for other players to chip in their cases, which allow you to judge who to go after that could have benefit scum. I went through the day 1 post up to Golbat's lynch focusing on your posts and found you it matches what I thought: your filter reveals while you were posting a lot, you did not make any hard stance against any players. You made one case which leads to your vote on Golbat, and spent most other time deflecting cases against you, and other times defending players, or trying to befriend new players.
I made 3 cases, not one. I just felt stronger about Golbat at the time than Mordanis or GK. Again, you'll notice that all 3 cases were about patterns of things I found scummy. Golbat with repeatedly changing his mind, GK for repeatedly interrupting discussion to start talking about lurkers again, and Mordanis for repeatedly trying to assert that I wasn't a blue role.
On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote:
I moved over looking at your day 2 posts and found out you actually did some scum hunting on your own, which partially negate my claim that you were "not aligning early towards any scum reads". However, I am not a big fan of your "small talk" with Promethelax about a past game you guys were in. Please focus on this game only, unless you meant to mention how Promethelax plays in the past to build a case.
I wasn't kidding when I said I wanted everyone to completely read back through day 1 while knowing that Golbat was town. I did it myself, and pushed my new cases. I posted out 3 completely new cases, and new facts for my 2 previous cases.
As far as the small talk with Prom, I agree, it was pointless spam. It DID start out as me using his meta from our previous game to put pressure on him, though.
On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote:Also, I found this: + Show Spoiler +On July 30 2012 16:32 Keirathi wrote:Holy cow. Nice case. This is the the kind of analysis that takes really careful combing through filters and picking up on extremely subtle patterns. I'm eagerly awaiting a response from Ange now. While some may not find this post scummy at all, it fits into my reads on you, that you "did not make a stance", "Wait for other players to talk", and then "push accordingly". I guess you did indeed imply that you agree with Mordanis' case when you say it is a nice case, but these were not very committing stance that can always be dismissed when needed.
Maybe I wasn't clear enough. When I read that case, it was extremely well reasoned and put Ange into a new light that I hadn't noticed, and her (him? i assume her because she didn't correct Mordanis for his constant use of her) response to it was very important to how I would ultimately feel towards her after it. Her response was satisfactory, but not particularly convincing. I haven't had a chance to go back through her filter yet myself and make a final decision, but I'm more wary of her now after Mordanis' case. That's all I meant.
On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote:
TL:DR I am not a big fan of Kei's "passive" scum hunt play that allows him to sit back and judge the direction townies headed, while possibly moulding his own stance to get the best out of scum. I would like to see Kei's response.
I apologize if it feels like I'm being passive. I just don't agree with committing early. All the cases I've pushed have followed my meta of picking up patterns, but that's because I generally believe I'm much better at that than pressuring people for one silly little thing at a time.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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@GK: Can I get a response to this?
Keirathi wrote:
He said he didn't want to post his reads at night, and would wait until today. How could you be so sure you weren't going to die and never get those reads out for people to see? Posting them at the end of the night would have been ideal if you actually are townie.
For reference, heres the post I got that from:
+ Show Spoiler +On July 30 2012 02:18 goodkarma wrote:
Just a small update:
I've finished reading through all the filters again, and have some new thoughts on who is scum. I have decided to follow the advice posted by alan and postpone discussion of those thoughts until day 2 begins in a few hours here. It seems everyone else is doing the same...
I would, however, like to make a few comments on the Golbat debacle. While Golbat certainly is to blame for not sticking up for himself, so is the town for voting him.
Very obvious, but one of the bigger issues I have with some people's current scum-hunting tactics is they think that scum just have to present in one or two very particular ways. And I will confess I have been guilty of this too...
Things like: Scum are sneaky. They hate to make coherant arguements against players. They love to slip up on statistics that don't really have much bearing on their arguements. They can only sit back and lurk (yeah, I was guilty of this one...).
Everyone plays scum a little differently, making finding them not a science but an art form. Looking back at the Golbat lynching, I couldn't help but notice that while he played badly, he did it consistently. There wasn't one "scumslip," or one particular bandwagon he was willing to ride. He was like, "I want to ride every bandwagon that presents any semblance of a case." I mentioned this too in passing, that he was either a bad town (for bandwagoning without thinking) or a bad mafia (for being so out in the open). But he wasn't afraid to change his mind. Repeatedly. And he did stick his neck out in getting behind cases, being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots... Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that. In retrospec, and I know it doesn't mean much, but looking at how he was consistent in his terrible play and was completely unafraid to change his mind I don't see how he could have been anything but really bad town.
I encourage everyone, as they're making their new cases, to not have their "scum check-list." Try to show some empathy and really assess if a town could make the posts your suspect has made.
Anyway, my 2 cents. I'll catch up here in a few hours, once day 2 has begun.
It doesn't make any sense for a townie to claim that he has reads and not share them before the night ends. If you had died, you never would have gotten to post them, and you would have completely wasted your time and hurt the thread overall. Were you completely unafraid of dying?
Also, you said you would post them before the night ended in your previous post + Show Spoiler +On July 29 2012 07:57 goodkarma wrote:
With the day passed, and our first flip, I plan on making a rather lengthy analysis thread on top suspects. I promise to have it before night ends, but don't expect to see it for several hours.
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@Keirathi:
It clearly states in the thread that I was following Alan's advice. I was afraid that by posting something wrong and dieing, I would be leading the town into another mislynch. Alan has since then brought up the point that it wasn't that impressions were posted, but rather that the people in his game who were night-killed had tunnel vision and were only pursuing single suspects.
In other words, yes. Not posting my impressions at night was a mistake, and I realize that now.
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Hey guys, I may have to bail on my promised evening post--just got a phone call from the police station. Apparently my brother got caught on a DUI and needs someone to put up bail (since it's happened to him before). Will try to post when I get back home.
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On July 31 2012 06:48 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2012 00:49 DarthPunk wrote:On July 31 2012 00:39 Shady Sands wrote:
Darth, I'm getting really bad vibes about Promethelax's "town circle"/"town leadership" ideas as well. No idea why he would choose to lurk D1 and then immediately start to argue for something like this so quickly. I don't think he lurked on day one. His schedule and my time-zone actually synch up fairly well. and at that time lots of people are asleep and not much happens in the thread while the US is asleep . That being said it blows my mind how hard he seems to be trying to establish his Townieness and I don't know what possible advantage it could bring. Being a clear town assets helps town hugely, it removes a townie from suspicion. Look at MTG where I played like crap (that is had no idea what the fuck was happening) but Nova_Terra still called me one of the best town players that was because it was clear that I was town even though me reads until right at the end were terrible. In one of the guides (I think it is Qotal's) it says that one of the most important things a townie can do is prove their innocence and I have read a lot of postgames in which hosts say that looking townie is something town needs to work on. I kinda wish I had played worse as scum so my meta wasn't so similar but ah well, nothing I can do about that now. I actually think my meta is really different and I think it is easy to spot the differences but me pointing them out doesn't help town read me since I am aware of my meta I could have intentionally changed it. GK: Since you have explained your reasoning ##: UnvoteFor those that think I am scummy I would urge you to actually see the things I am putting into the thread. I have provided good cases, I am willing to change my reads as new behaviours are exhibited and new information comes to light. I am acting in a pro-town manner in this game because I am playing with a town win con. Keir: Honestly I don;t want to lead discussion. I'd love to be able to provide cases and let others lead the talking but since no one has stepped in I am trying to provide some guidance to the other nubs here. My obsessive behaviour has lead to me reading a ton of mafia games, and related qts as well as guides and host notes. The amount of information I have ingested makes me feel pretty good about my general game knowledge and I am trying to help town with that knowledge. Every single member of town should try to establish their towniness. It is awful play to fail to do that (see our D1 mislynch of a guy who totally failed to establish himself as town and town was punished for it). I am trying to do three things: establish myself as town, create a positive town atmosphere and build good cases on people who appear scummy to me. I would argue that 100% of my behaviour falls into line with those three goals and you would do well to realize that I am working towards a town victory and not a scum one. My posting style will change again soon since I have work for the next five days, starting tomorrow. I'll try to be more active than I was in the early game but I won't be as crazy active as I have been these past few days.
I think you misunderstood what i meant with that post. I understand that a confirmed town is very large asset to have. But someone is not confirmed town in my eyes just because he starts jumping up and down telling anyone who will listen that he is. Quite the opposite infact.
What I don't understand is why on day two you would try so hard to establish your self as confirmed town rather than focus on the cases and let your scum hunting do your talking for you.
The fact of the matter is that as soon as anyone mentioned you as possible scum for not voting Golbat that your behaviour dramtically changed and you began to start pushing yourself as confirmed town really hard and buddied keirathi (who had recently mentioned you in a list with others as possible scum.) really hard.
On July 31 2012 06:48 Promethelax wrote:
I am trying to do three things: establish myself as town, create a positive town atmosphere and build good cases on people who appear scummy to me.
I would argue that 100% of my behaviour falls into linewith those three goals and you would do well to realize that I am working towards a town victory and not a scum one.
Yeha, day two 100% of your behaviour falls into those catagories.(with a disproportionate amount of establishing your self as town) but this is a RADICAL departure from your day one posting which i actually thought was good as you were making solid cases for the most part. However the more you make noise about how you are town and how it would be best for the town if you were confirmed town (implied) the more suspicous you are to me.
I was not particularly suspicous of you before this shift in focus from lynching scum and making cases, to: promethelax is town it would be good for town if i were considered confirmed town. Immediately after being brought, however slightly, into suspicion.
On July 31 2012 06:48 Promethelax wrote:
My posting style will change again soon since I have work for the next five days, starting tomorrow.
I'll try to be more active than I was in the early game but I won't be as crazy active as I have been these past few days.
What is this? This is an excuse and a reason to explain the dramatic shift of focus in your posting between day one and day two. It could also be used as an explanation if your posting changes again in the future. The problem is that having time/not having time does not explain the dramatic shift of focus and style, all it does is potentially explain a drop or increase in activity.
On July 31 2012 06:48 Promethelax wrote:
I am acting in a pro-town manner in this game because I am playing with a town win con.
OK. Great. In what way does this contribute whatsoever. All it contributes is an attempt to manipulate the reads others make on you.
On July 31 2012 06:48 Promethelax wrote:
Being a clear town assets helps town hugely, it removes a townie from suspicion.
Being a clear town assets helps me hugely, it removes me from suspicion.
FoS Promethelax
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As the voting deadline approaches (and no one has voted yet lol), I would like to elaborate further on my aRyuujin case.:
+ Show Spoiler +On July 28 2012 01:48 aRyuujin wrote:aRyuujin/MrMedic
+ Show Spoiler +Suspecting me-Smart I did not yet provide posts Either i'm scum or A really bad Town. Mr Medic comes to mind For these reasons too On July 27 2012 11:53 MrMedic wrote:
Ok, I am sorry about all these little posts I am doing. I am new to the game and am kinda reluctant to do a big first post but I will try now since everyone is telling me to post something worth while (I agree also).
First, I agree with Darthpunk for a variety of reasons. The largest reason in all of this is that he is constantly saying contradictions with him self. Saying that we should lynch Mr K in his third option and he says this would be great but in the other options while saying this he says we might ruin the town more or it will be bad for the town. But the thing that most strikes me is that he says number 2 is the least probable but he says in his third option that we should lynch him now. But he says at the end we shouldn't lynch him right now. What this really shows is that he is trying to force the option one on too our minds and make us think that he just trying to take one for the team. So in conclusion, he is on top of showing what option he wants us to do. Also, he only shows the options of killing him and as a result would not be a big deal or be a good thing and even though he tress to show the negativity of the situation in actuality he steers you away from it and making it seem like a positive outcome no matter what happens. His first content post he looks he's saying stuff showing fallacies He's bandwagoning and his analysis makes little sense if you understand how mordanis was posting those were 3 what-ifs false contribution and his confusing posts lead me to believe that he's either a bad town, or a mafioso backup vote's on him
+ Show Spoiler +You picked mordanis super fast. I don't see why you would keep swapping. On July 27 2012 17:14 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:59 Mordanis wrote:+ Show Spoiler [out of game] +About my attitude of being an arrogant asshole:
I read the remnants of your first blog completely by chance, and didn't see the subsequent posts and such. I judged you prematurely, and for that I am deeply sorry. Really, I am deeply ashamed about that, and I hope you will forgive me. I won't overcompensate, all I can say is that I'll try to be as objective as possible. Again, I offer my sincerest apologies. After that though, I still stand by my opinion that posting town reads is a bad idea. If you are correct, one townie breathes easier, but the mafia see them as a better target (those bastards really hate confirmed town :C). If you put a mafia on your town list though, they know that a bandwagon is that much more difficult, and you've taken the pressure off. + Show Spoiler +I honestly expected more people to have read that stupid blog and judge me for it, and I don't really blame you. I can get really hotheaded and overconfident when I see a solution (or in this case, potential mafia), and begin trying to slam a square peg into the area between the circle hole and the triangle hole. I'm still not sure about your scum status, but at the same time, I want to explore all possibilities, and casting a vote before the halfway mark of the day is foolish anyways. If you're scum, it gives you time to shape up your posting, and if you're not, it gives scum time to run a train on you. Even while I was writing up my reads, I saw other people who could be scum just as easily as you. But now that I've been able to refocus, I really think I should give other people some space to talk, especially because half the town hasn't even really contributed, and that's never a good thing. I do want to state that whatever my read are in my previous post, they should not be taken as me being 100% certain of a person's innocence/guilt. DarthPunk and Shady could easily be scum too, but I think that before we come to conclusions, we have to look at the big picture, and that hasn't really been completely painted yet. Over here, time wastes You continue to take back and go back on mord On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 18:42 alan133 wrote:
I have read and re-read the filters but couldn't find anything other than Mordanis' "meh" case on Kei and subsequent cases against Mordanis for that.
I was kinda thrown off when Golbat decides to unvote Mordanis because he started off having high confidence that he is scum. His "I am a newbie post" also contributes to my suspicions on him. I quickly dismissed them because I still have my FOS on Mordanis and he did a case on Golbat too.
Now that Ange777 has mentioned it, I would like to ask Golbat, what makes you think that Mordanis is not scum anymore? To me, his only "townie points" is that he is the first player who built a case, but that's about it. Is there some "obvious" reason that I missed? Every time I re-read Mordanis's posts I am more convinced that he is scum. The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS MordanisIt's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler +but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours But here, you go back without a new catalyst you appear to help but really, you're not (a super scum thing to do) ##FoS Golbat
I plan to vote you but it could easily change depends on the thread On July 27 2012 21:22 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 20:33 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote:... *Sigh* I'll begin by saying this: If the people jumping on my bandwagon 1/6th of the way through the first day are town, they are really doing a good job of muddling up the conversation. Look through the thread so far, and see that the only discussion before I posted my case was policy, and that very lenient. There was a lot of "Oop, don't want to attract attention, guess I'll say that we shouldn't policy lynch any lurkers". I admit that I rushed my two main posts, and they may have been suboptimal, but compare that to the entire rest of the populace. We've managed 2 cases so far, and I was one of them. The other is a direct response to mine. I really don't understand why the people who are tunnelling me are doing so: attacking the only person who has posted anything of substance (that isn't within the same bandwagon as you) seems anti-discussion. So while I certainly made a mistake in talking too much about Keir and potential blue roles, the biggest reason that I seem to be "in danger" is that I've been willing to say what I believe. Regardless, I see the bandwagon as being very interesting. There are 3 people who have had an overwhelming share in the activity against me. DarthPunk: He seems to have a hard time with my line of thought. I apologize, my last game ended with me and another player (Release <3) in a duel that had a lot secrecy and enigmatic reasoning. I came to this game expecting the same. If you take people at the face value of their words (In which case, I'm town so don't lynch me :D), then you tend to miss a lot of good reads. The way to catch scum is not to find the first invalid argument, but rather to find the players who are playing in an anti-town way. This includes delaying to reduce the amount of analysis, making the atmosphere bad for town, and muddling with plans. By posting my case on the first thing that I saw, I went in the direction of an atmosphere that welcomes content posting, started the scumhunt before it would have started had I not posted, and laid a fairly straightforward path for the town without explicitly discussing policy. We lynch the player with the scummiest play. So while my read may not have been perfect, my post should have helped town. On the other hand, creating a mass bandwagon on the one person who has posted anything of substance (besides the counter substance) seems to accomplish the goals of scum. Still, he seems more to have an issue following my logic than to be following a plan, as well as being the first to place suspicion on me. I give him a solid "mEh" on the scum-scale Shady: The most brazen of my accusers. Doesn't seem to be following the fine points of the game very closely. Still doesn't appear to get that the day cycle is 48 hours and not 12. Has a great time posting out perceived errors in my logic and then votes for me on said perceptions, without seeming to notice that one of his main points + Show Spoiler +if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. makes no sense. Why would scum draw attention to himself on a case this early? Why especially would the scum stick to his guns rather than move on to greener pastures? Seems like really dumb play for scum, although perhaps he thinks I am that dumb. I am pretty sure I'm more intelligent than a garbage can though... Anyways, despite my annoyance with him, his play seems more uniformed than scummy. So to you Shady I say: Read through the OP again, and preferably some of the guides. Your play so far has been far from inspiring. And compared to this group, that's saying something. Golbat: The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote:
Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this.
As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had.
From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt.
Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote:
I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today.
Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic).
is more of the same: he is trying to come off as pro-town without having to commit to anything as of yet. Particularly of importance is the phrase "I already have an idea of who might be scum". Almost brilliant, as it gives him the ability to jump on any bandwagon that forms. He could just say "Yep, just as I thought" and hop right on. Sure, it works better if the bandwagon was me, but if it ended on anyone else no one could say that he had flip-flopped. Finally, he posts this + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote:
I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough.
##Vote Mordanis
If you're red, try to be less obvious next time.
If you're green, try to be less scummy next time.
I certainly hope you're not a blue. Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat+ Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] +I'm really getting bored with the stuff about this. Read my second post about his "claim" + Show Spoiler [spoilered for you convenience] +On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote:Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +The most useless kind of lynch is a last minute switch that is really easy and safe to hop on the bandwagon for. If there's a highly polarized lynch, the dead information + voting lists can provide a lot, even if the people accused are all innocent (then you can see who's manipulating just out of site).
In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +To keep this simple and save time, let's look at some heuristics to find potential targets, then go through their post history to get the best ones. Here are some common heuristics I use of blue indicators:
-Tries to contribute but doesn't stick their neck out
-Shows fear/wants to instinctively hide
-Drastically lower post quantity compared to games when they are green but still tries to contribute.
-Focuses most of their posts on blue roles or ignores them entirely.
-To figure out which role specifically, they will focus unnatural amounts of attention on that role, know the rules for that role thoroughly, or ignore it entirely while mentioning other blue roles. Figuring out the specific is difficult to ascertain and not always applicable, but these heuristics will hold up more often than not. Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler +). That's why I feel Keir isn't blue, because he seems to be trying to seem blue but some of his actions are the opposite. And there was the public question: when I was vigi, I asked several questions about my role, but to try to hide my role I never posted them publically, I PMd them. His play screams to me a somewhat experienced player trying to fake blue. I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. , and find for me one place where I explicitly say that we should lynch Keir. All I said was that he isn't blue. Which leaves the two possibilities of him being scum or VT, which everyone seemed to interpret as pushing for a lynch. I over committed to defending what I still believe to be a good read for being 2 pages in, but I didn't try to start a bandwagon on him. If you really want to make a big deal out of a mistake and end the discussion before the day cycle is 1/4 of the way done, by all means just vote for me and agree that its obvious. If you don't feel that way, do your own analysis and point fingers. Town doesn't win by singing Kum Ba Yah, My Lord. I think this is pretty important to parse through, because it makes me want to refrain from lynching Mordanis until day 2 or 3. I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa. That being said, however, I'm still pretty suspicious of Mordanis' desire to start scumhunting an hour and a half into the game, when only half of the players had even posted. This was exacerbated by the fact that his case against Keir was extremely poor, almost intentionally so--as if Mordanis wanted more heat than light to be shed on the situation. One of the main things I'd like to point out here is that scum do not necessarily have to play quietly. It's easier for the scum to play that way, but playing loudly is also a valid scum tactic for sowing discord and division within the town--which is what I thought Mord's post was trying to do. Now that the Keir case is closed, however, and Mord+Keir have both identified Golbat's behavior as pretty odd in and of itself, then I think it would be worthwhile to take a look at Golbat. (I'm still a suspicious of Mord, but mainly because his behavior has created so much uncertainty as to what he really could be--and Golbat can clear up a lot of that.) Besides being the first one to "formally" vote for Mordanis, Golbat was also the first one to accuse Mord of faulty analysis. Granted, Golbat's claims were valid--but his more recent posts have made me pretty suspicious. First, let's ignore the list for a bit--we'll circle back to it, but one general thing to note about Golbat's posting: he seems to spend more time trying to make himself look like a townie than trying to figure out who is scum. This is the kicker that shifted my focus from Mord to him. Look at this train of posts below: + Show Spoiler [Golbat's posts since the "…] +On July 27 2012 16:21 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:14 Keirathi wrote:On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote:
Keir He hasn't even called out his accuser as being scummy at all.
On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote:
Mord I really like the OMGUS! vote though, <3.
So you call Mord out for OMGUS'ing you, but want me to OMGUS him? That's not what I said. I said that you didn't call him out at all, not that you didn't vote for him. I wouldn't expect you to vote for someone just because they voted for you. But saying "hey bro, cool your jets" at least would have been something. Until page 12 I'm pretty sure you didn't even respond to his accusations, but I might have missed a post. What Mord did was go "Oh so you're gonna vote for me? WELL I'M GONNA VOTE FOR YOU, TAKE THAT! Completely different. And then this post: On July 27 2012 16:49 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:26 Keirathi wrote:
@Goldbat: I responded to both of his posts regarding me with pretty strong dismissals for being a bad case. My apologies. I completely forgot about those two posts. Maybe i'm being too hasty with my accusing Mord of being scum from one bad read early in the game. It just seems really fishy that he stuck with it for so long. For the time being mord, I'm not convinced you're not scum, but i'm being convinced less and less that you are the more I think about it. So for the time being, ##unvoteI just really want to win my first game, and I want to do it while playing well, which is what got me excited to get a slam-dunk mafia kill on day one. I know for a fact that i'm not scum, and that's all I really know at this point. Right now, besides Mord, I think that our best bet is to see who isn't contributing anything to the discusssion and then get rid of them. I admit that all of my reads so far could be wrong 100%. However, i don't think posting my day1 reads about all of the people is the same thing as making a town list, because I didn't even give an opinion on half of the people. I could also do without your "oh look at how good I am, you guys are bad" attitude. This is a newbie game, and calling people bad accomplishes nothing except potentially driving people away. P.S. I know I said "i'm not one to throw votes around yadda yadda yadda, but + Show Spoiler +That was me trying to be all internet tough . I'll try to tone down my accusatory-ness, but that's just me being new to the game. And this: On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 18:42 alan133 wrote:
I have read and re-read the filters but couldn't find anything other than Mordanis' "meh" case on Kei and subsequent cases against Mordanis for that.
I was kinda thrown off when Golbat decides to unvote Mordanis because he started off having high confidence that he is scum. His "I am a newbie post" also contributes to my suspicions on him. I quickly dismissed them because I still have my FOS on Mordanis and he did a case on Golbat too.
Now that Ange777 has mentioned it, I would like to ask Golbat, what makes you think that Mordanis is not scum anymore? To me, his only "townie points" is that he is the first player who built a case, but that's about it. Is there some "obvious" reason that I missed? Every time I re-read Mordanis's posts I am more convinced that he is scum. The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS MordanisIt's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler +but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours And this: On July 27 2012 18:44 Golbat wrote:
I can understand why you would read my actions so far in the game as scum, but they're honestly just the actions of a bad player who thought he had a dead on scum read and was most likely very, very wrong. From now on i'll be more careful with who I vote for, because while I DID indeed redact my vote, I really really dislike when that happens on the whole. I got a little carried away and luckily it happened this early on and not in a situation where I might have cause a loss for town.
Basically, I'm NOT scum, and anything scummy I have said or done so far can be explained by my inexperience.
After reading Prom's post (especially the bit regarding self-imposed posting limits), I feel like it's time for me to take a break, especially after spewing so much bullshit and bad play all over the thread. See you in about 6-12 hours. As soon as people start pressuring him, Golbat says that he's not scum in 4 different ways. He emphasizes his newbieness, he says he's just eager to win, then he self-consciously makes a post to make himself not seem like a flip-flopper. Then, when he finally realizes he's digging himself into a hole, he decides to pull the Ostrich maneuver and stick his head into said hole for 6-12 hours. Undoubtedly, if he is red, he is now sending a clear signal to his buddies to bail him out and hopefully shift the discussion to someone else by the time he is out of said hole. Next post will be about Golbat's "list post". EBWOP: Just realized I forgot to slot in why Mord's post makes me want to hold off to Day2/3--Mord highlights "drawing attention to himself" and a willingness to stand up for his beliefs as keystones of his in-game habits. The thing with this playstyle is that playing as a "noisy scum" is very hard to keep up over 2 or 3 in-game days, because in a game as small as this, the analysis will very quickly start to shift in the right direction and noisy attempts to derail become more and more risky as the posts pile on--inevitably a fairly major scumslip will be made. By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch--especially if Golbat flips blue/green. Shady's last edit summarizes why we dont vote for mordanis If he's mafia he will be a free kill soon if he's not, why vote
Here is aRyuujin's first and only place where he provides some semblance of analysis. I invite you to look at his talk of Golbat and Mordanis. Here, he pretty much just takes the stance of others before him without contributing anything (namely Mordanis's, and later, SS's opinions on golbat and Shady Sand's opinions on Mordanis). His talk of MrMedic is the only place I've found where he's contributed any sort of opinion of his own on lynch suspects. So, I will grant aRyuujin one townie point for that.
He goes on to discuss his arguement against Shady, which is conveniently Mordanis's:
+ Show Spoiler +On July 28 2012 06:44 aRyuujin wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2012 06:36 Mordanis wrote:I'm starting to get a really bad feeling about Shady. Remember his post that said that no game in 20 lynched scum D1? + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 09:02 Shady Sands wrote:
So pretty much, I looked through about 20 mafia games and found not a single night one lynch resulting in a red kill. This suggests one thing:
Day 1 scumhunting actually has a lower success rate than a random day 1 lynch. If the lynches had been truly random, then maybe 20-30% of the games should have had day 1 lynches turn up red, but none of them did. Here are the D1 lynches from several games: NMM XXI: blue NMM XX: red NMM XIX: blue NMM XVIII: green NMM XVII: red NMM XVI: blue (I couldn't find XV or XIV, so I chose to go to the SNMMs) SNMM XI: red SNMM X: green SNMM IX: green So we have 3 blues lynched, 3 VT lynched, and 3 scum lynched. So it would appear that in Newbie mini mafia games, there is about a 1/3 chance of lynching scum D1. With 3/13 chance a random lynch would hit scum (~24%), and historically a 1/3 chance of hitting scum through hunting, the choice is clear. This is for future reference really, as we're already hunting. But this brings up the fact that Shady almost certainly lied. Now there is sometimes a reason for a townie to lie. If it opens up an avenue for them to discover scum, or take one for the team, or accomplishes another goal it can be a boon to lie to the town. On the other hand, by suggesting that scum hunting D1 is useless, Shady is 1) discouraging discussion (why discuss when it only lowers the probability of hitting scum?), 2) stalling the game (mafia wants to stall as long as possible. they use their kp regardless of where our lynch ends up), and 3) trying to influence newbies' thinking (if analysis/scum hunt isn't the main priority, then mafia get off free for mistakes while being able to penalize some other player. This goes with stalling). In short, Shady lied in a pretty baldfaced manner, and the lie only serves the interest of mafia. Also, after reading through Obvious's filter last game, I saw that his behavior was almost identical to Golbat's. Golbat, you need to contribute, because if you don't, you're going to be looking even scummier. But I have seen almost identical play from a townie (Obvious was lynched D1 though), so for now I am going to switch my vote. ##Unvote
##Vote: Shady_Sands No good townie would try for such a bad gambit that early day 1 But it makes me think Why would a mafioso Lie obviously?
But the one thing that also struck me is how indecisive he is. Look at a couple of posts on the subject:
At Golbat:
On July 28 2012 01:48 aRyuujin wrote:
I plan to vote you
but it could easily change
depends on the thread
Depends on the thread? What about on his defense? It seems in your mind you've already condemned him without giving him a chance, but that you want to make it look as if you haven't made up your mind so nothing backfires on you.
Also, you discuss your opinion that voting early is an "unintelligent thing to do," which certainly is true if you don't want to stand out.:
On July 28 2012 14:28 aRyuujin wrote:
I FoS'd him, but I'm not gonna vote that early, no intelligent player would.
And barring another Prox intervention, I will admit this evidence:
On July 29 2012 06:27 aRyuujin wrote:
I'll be here for the next couple of hours.
Wow, that sucked. Really wish he just claimed though, when he realized that he was a lynch possibility.
To be fair, I still think his actions were the most scummy so far, and I definitely would make that vote again.
At the very least, on this day, he has been around but not posting, and has told us so in this thread.
So allow me to summarize my case, as I've brought to your attention a few items here, but there's others scattered in some of my other postings. Admittedly, some of the scummy traits I've posted about aRyuujin are small. But I believe that when you put the pieces together, aRyuujin fits far better as scum than he does as town.:
Indecision: As is demonstrated, by the two quotes above: he is willing to plan on voting for someone but only will if it's okay based on the thread. Further, he would be unwilling to get behind someone he feels is scum with an early vote.
Posting history: There is at least one confirmed case of him deliberately passing up on the opportunity to post and provide analysis of his own position.
Some other small, earlier points:
-He has a few confusing bits of logic he's posted that just aren't true, such as his "if he's mafia," people x and y who defended him are too." I've discussed this in a prior posting and won't elaborate here.
-He chose haiku as a posting style, which made getting a read on him twice difficult, and may have been deliberate. He didn't quit until he was called out for it.
-He spoilered his first analysis, as though he didn't want to take ownership of it, and stopped when he was called out for it.
"Blending in" without contributing: He hasn't contributed anything and has rehashed other people's ideas as his own "opinions," with the possible exception of his MrMedic comment.
I hope to hear from Ayruujin soon on my case against him. I would like him to know I am looking at this case with an open mind. Presently, he looks very scummy to me, and I want to hear from him a little bit about his posting habits and why it is that he has been content to get behind other people without contributing anything of his own.
I plan to look through and consider other people's cases before placing my vote, as I'm still a little behind. I will be sure to provide a little commentary on them and my reasoning for my vote in said upcoming post.
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@Keirathi
+ Show Spoiler +On July 31 2012 10:47 Keirathi wrote:@GK: Can I get a response to this? Show nested quote +Keirathi wrote:
He said he didn't want to post his reads at night, and would wait until today. How could you be so sure you weren't going to die and never get those reads out for people to see? Posting them at the end of the night would have been ideal if you actually are townie.
For reference, heres the post I got that from: + Show Spoiler +On July 30 2012 02:18 goodkarma wrote:
Just a small update:
I've finished reading through all the filters again, and have some new thoughts on who is scum. I have decided to follow the advice posted by alan and postpone discussion of those thoughts until day 2 begins in a few hours here. It seems everyone else is doing the same...
I would, however, like to make a few comments on the Golbat debacle. While Golbat certainly is to blame for not sticking up for himself, so is the town for voting him.
Very obvious, but one of the bigger issues I have with some people's current scum-hunting tactics is they think that scum just have to present in one or two very particular ways. And I will confess I have been guilty of this too...
Things like: Scum are sneaky. They hate to make coherant arguements against players. They love to slip up on statistics that don't really have much bearing on their arguements. They can only sit back and lurk (yeah, I was guilty of this one...).
Everyone plays scum a little differently, making finding them not a science but an art form. Looking back at the Golbat lynching, I couldn't help but notice that while he played badly, he did it consistently. There wasn't one "scumslip," or one particular bandwagon he was willing to ride. He was like, "I want to ride every bandwagon that presents any semblance of a case." I mentioned this too in passing, that he was either a bad town (for bandwagoning without thinking) or a bad mafia (for being so out in the open). But he wasn't afraid to change his mind. Repeatedly. And he did stick his neck out in getting behind cases, being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots... Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that. In retrospec, and I know it doesn't mean much, but looking at how he was consistent in his terrible play and was completely unafraid to change his mind I don't see how he could have been anything but really bad town.
I encourage everyone, as they're making their new cases, to not have their "scum check-list." Try to show some empathy and really assess if a town could make the posts your suspect has made.
Anyway, my 2 cents. I'll catch up here in a few hours, once day 2 has begun. It doesn't make any sense for a townie to claim that he has reads and not share them before the night ends. If you had died, you never would have gotten to post them, and you would have completely wasted your time and hurt the thread overall. Were you completely unafraid of dying? Also, you said you would post them before the night ended in your previous post + Show Spoiler +On July 29 2012 07:57 goodkarma wrote:
With the day passed, and our first flip, I plan on making a rather lengthy analysis thread on top suspects. I promise to have it before night ends, but don't expect to see it for several hours. . I don't particularly like that you promised something and didn't deliver.
Let me answer that for you. In my night post I advise that we should be careful of what we post because scums can kill you off and make use of what you say, and twist your words without you there to clarify it. You can find multiple example in my previous game.
I put my summary of my last game in a spoiler as it relates very little to this game:
+ Show Spoiler +We got 2 scums in first day and night. You got it right. TWO. And we lost. Everyone became so confident they go super batman mode posting wild cases and there is always this one person who post one long case against one person in the middle of the night, and they got killed. There is no way that person can defend himself against someone who is dead, and I am not gonna lie, there is always this guilt of "what if the dead guy is right?", and then you proceed to lynch that person, later, you secretly put the blame on the dead guy who posted the case when their target flip town.
However, I believe by posting factual finds on multiple targets, for example, "player x votes for player y without giving his reasoning, player z jumps votes", you can prevent scums to twist it any further than that, as in, compare to "A does B, I think this is because he is scum and I think this implies C is town".
While I am not saying Goodkarma must be town, I want to clarify because he is getting pressured for following my advise (although misunderstood its intent).
As far as changing my position and suddenly encouraging people to make cases based on one or two scumslips after the night post, can you point out exactly where I did that. I looked back through my filter and I don't see
me saying that at all, so I'd specifically like to know what post you misunderstood.
Reading back I realized it is a bit of speculation, but it is this post:
+ Show Spoiler +MrMedic, Zorkmid: Where are you guys?
We need everyone to be contributing. Can you comment on the current cases please?
Also aRyuujin, alan, Obvious, and Prom: you guys have overall been pretty quiet comparatively as well. At least you guys have posted cases, but you really need to step up your amount of input. EVERYONE needs to be giving reads as much as possible. Being wrong isn't a crime, but sitting back and letting others lead the discussion just means you have less "town power" and people are going to be more hesitant to listen to what you have to say when you do randomly decide to chime in.
First, you separated yourself from the crowd who stood out and post cases. When people points that out, you simply say you don't want to make cases based on one or two silly slips. I assume you are saying those who already made case were acting in this regards. You also said it might potentially lead to a bad case, which scums can make use of, so you're trying to avoid it. I saw this as a criticism against people who already made cases.
When you call for other people to make case, it occurs to me; didn't you disagree with that method of scum hunting that you're avoiding from? Why are you asking for them to post now? It occurs to me that what you said about scum making use of "bad cases" is just an excuse for you to stay passive.
I re-read your filter and realize I might be locked on you around conformation bias. I do notice your cases on a few people when I wrote my case on you, but I read you were merely rehashing what other people has done and you were very non-committal. Upon closer inspection the cases were actually based on cold hard facts instead of WIFOM, and you did indicate if these actions by other players were scummy or not. Your argument about compiling all evidence into one post starts to make sense and I do see townie motivation now.
I would like to drop my case on you for now.
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@Goodkarma
Regardless if they are scum or town MrMedic and Ayruujin to a lesser extent are hurting the game with inactivity.
This is the entire contribution of MrMedic on day 2On July 30 2012 07:16 MrMedic wrote:I was also at that game O_O
0_o
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Where is mordanis? he goes from making huge waves on the first day. Leads the case on Golbat, jumps on Shady Sands lots of posting etc. It is now 9 hours till deadline on day 2. He has made a case on ange777 with his singular post and has since disappeared. This is quite a contrast to his case on golbat in which there is a large loud and consistent follow up on golbat.
What was that said about burnout? That playing loud mafia is hard, and that he will either scumslip or dramatically lower his contribution if he was scum?
Right.
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EPT
