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On July 27 2012 10:35 goodkarma wrote:Hi all  This is my first game so be nice to me lol. I'm sorry I wasn't on earlier I had no idea this had actually started. I agree that lurking is bad, and to that end if there's a no-poster by the deadline that's where my first vote goes. I think it's been mentioned here before, but I would like to reaffirm the idea that no-lynch day one is not the best policy. Imho, doing such will just put us in a day one situation come day two. We really need to pressure those who aren't participating to post their thoughts, or face the consequences. I plan to follow up this post with my thoughts on who feels scummy, just as Shady Sands is, once the last "lurker" that wasn't me on this list posts, Ange777. One thing that I would like to mention tho is that while inactivity can't be tolerated having a high post count shouldn't necessarily be encouraged. It's the quality of the posts that matters, and that fresh content is brought to the table. +1 posts are absolutely useless and do the town no good, so please don't post them (MrMedic.... cough cough).
Hi Goodkarma! <3<3<3
I think it's been mentioned here before, but I would like to reaffirm the idea that no-lynch day one is not the best policy.
Totally agree. If we no lynch we gain very little information and are in almost the same boat the next day minus 1 town.
I agree that lurking is bad, and to that end if there's a no-poster by the deadline that's where my first vote goes.
Yes lurking hurts town. That being said I will not get behind a vote on a lurker just because. Always lynch scum.
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I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today.
Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic).
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On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote:
I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today.
Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic).
EBWOP:
Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't posting enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic).
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@Goldbat:
At the same time, you can't just give people a free ride for lurking. Like Mordanis pointed out + Show Spoiler +Mordanis wrote:
Easiest way for scum to win is to have town all say "Yeah, Lurkers are a bad target, we'll always lynch our best read". Its a pretty common scum strategy to lurk while the active townies FOS all over each other, and eventually kill themselves.
It's a balancing act of deciding if people are "lurking with intent" or just townies not posting much.
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Ok, I am sorry about all these little posts I am doing. I am new to the game and am kinda reluctant to do a big first post but I will try now since everyone is telling me to post something worth while (I agree also).
First, I agree with Darthpunk for a variety of reasons. The largest reason in all of this is that he is constantly saying contradictions with him self. Saying that we should lynch Mr K in his third option and he says this would be great but in the other options while saying this he says we might ruin the town more or it will be bad for the town. But the thing that most strikes me is that he says number 2 is the least probable but he says in his third option that we should lynch him now. But he says at the end we shouldn't lynch him right now. What this really shows is that he is trying to force the option one on too our minds and make us think that he just trying to take one for the team. So in conclusion, he is on top of showing what option he wants us to do. Also, he only shows the options of killing him and as a result would not be a big deal or be a good thing and even though he tress to show the negativity of the situation in actuality he steers you away from it and making it seem like a positive outcome no matter what happens.
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On July 27 2012 10:17 DarthPunk wrote:So I just read through the thread and the first post that really sprang out at me was this. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote:Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game: Mordanis's's case on KeirathiK (for some reason your name is really hard for me to type) began this game by virtually claiming Town RB. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 05:41 Keirathi wrote:
First things first:
If we have a town roleblocker, I think its best not to use your role early. You generally have as much chance of hurting a teamate as you do a scum. I'm not saying to NEVER use it, but think carefully and only use it if you are reasonably sure that you are blocking a scum.
Some policy discussion:
Lynch All Liars - I'm of the opinion that there are very, very few cases where lying as a townie is beneficial to town. With that said, there ARE cases where it is a realistic option, so I think blanket policy lynching is a fairly bad thing. Case-by-case basis.
Lynch All Lurkers - As much as lurking hurts town, I feel like at least in newbie games, lurking is almost guaranteed. I encourage everyone to try as hard as they can to avoid lurking sot hat we won't have to discuss this later. Lurking as a townie hurts town. Please don't do it. Again, case-by-case basis.
Are all roleblocks notified, or only people with power roles?
I've seen games where it works both ways, so best to clarify early.
. Now this may have been a case of extreme newbiness, which would be understandable, but Mr. K has played in at least 2 other games, so I believe he knew how this post would be interpreted. This brings up 3 possibilities: 1: Mr. K is VT, and he is trying to "take one for the team". He knows that the scum will see this post and read him blue, and he'll die tonight instead of a real blue. If this were to happen, he'd have helped town. If he gets lynched today, it'll be bad for town, but it will be deal-with-able. 2: Mr. K is actually townie RB. Perhaps he is trying to make his "claim" so obvious the scum will think option 1 is happening. Trying to hide out in the open. If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. That said, he implied that he wouldn't want to use it N1 anyway, so the options are virtually the same. 3: Mr. K is scum, and is trying to use this as means to get himself out of trouble. If he ever gets some heat brought to him, he just says "Dude, I basically claimed town RB, I don't think its a good idea to lynch me" The claim also puts pressure on any real blues to claim, and when everyone claims, a claim isn't worth anything. Basically, this post seems mildly non-protown, and it gives him a way to defend himself. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And if this option is the case, scum aren't killing him tonight. Of these three, option 2 seems by far the least probable. So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Still, its pretty early so I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now. Last thing: I have to go to work now, and I'll be back in probably 5 hours (rakin in the cash makin pizza), just FYI. So after some policy discussion Mordanis makes his case against Keirathi. After some WIFOM we get to this - Show nested quote +If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. So Keirathi is blue and we are in bad shape if he is NK/Lynched. but then we get to this: And this: Show nested quote +So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Twice stating that Keirath is is our best lynch at the moment which is a direct contradiction to his other premise. he ends with this: So after backflipping from his first premise (that it would be terribad for Keirathi to be NK and an even worse for us to mislynch him), and TWICE stating that Keirathi is our best Lynch. Mordanis decides that it isn't wise to commit right now after all. This post was WIFOM, contradiction and confusion. At best it is saying something while saying nothing. At worst it is a deliberate attempt of scum to mislynch their blue read day 1. Show nested quote +Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. Yeah it does doesn't it. FoS Mordanis
I'm not sure we can use internal contradictions between Mordanis' three different points as evidence, given that they are illustrating three different "what-ifs". That being said, though, his logic as to why point #2 is the least likely and point #3 is the most likely doesn't hold water (or rather, doesn't exist), and each of his points are pretty farfetched.
I'd say he's our best option for a day 1 lynch at this point, but to be extra sure, we should wait until Ange777 has had a chance to post as well, and Mordanis gets back from making pizzas and has had a chance to defend himself.
Even if he flips green (which is likely, let's not get our hopes up here), his lynch will tell us a lot about who we should go after next, since people seem to have had strong reactions to both his proposal to go after Keir, his own lynching, and his arguments against policy lynching.
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Keir:
I'm not sure if you understood my post, but I probably wasn't all that clear. What I meant was, if we have no solid reads on who might be scum, then we can lynch a lurker. But, if we do have a good idea of who might be scum, we have to prioritize investigating/lynching them over taking the easy lynch of a lurker.
Basically I think that policy lynching lurkers before considering people who are even the least bit scummy is a bad play. On the flip side, policy lynching liars is not a bad play, because the only reason to lie is because you're scum (apart from potentially claiming VT when actually a blue role, I think).
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On July 27 2012 11:53 MrMedic wrote:
Ok, I am sorry about all these little posts I am doing. I am new to the game and am kinda reluctant to do a big first post but I will try now since everyone is telling me to post something worth while (I agree also).
First, I agree with Darthpunk for a variety of reasons. The largest reason in all of this is that he is constantly saying contradictions with him self. Saying that we should lynch Mr K in his third option and he says this would be great but in the other options while saying this he says we might ruin the town more or it will be bad for the town. But the thing that most strikes me is that he says number 2 is the least probable but he says in his third option that we should lynch him now. But he says at the end we shouldn't lynch him right now. What this really shows is that he is trying to force the option one on too our minds and make us think that he just trying to take one for the team. So in conclusion, he is on top of showing what option he wants us to do. Also, he only shows the options of killing him and as a result would not be a big deal or be a good thing and even though he tress to show the negativity of the situation in actuality he steers you away from it and making it seem like a positive outcome no matter what happens.
You're on the right track MrMedic but tbh this isn't much better... Rehashing what's already been said isn't really helping the town. There is analysis buried in there but it's not easy to get to. Maybe it's just me, but I find it very hard to follow what you're saying with your writing style.
If it were me, I would quote what I'm critiquing, maybe in spoilers if it's super-long, and then say where I agree and disagree in bulletpoints for readability. But only if I have something new to add. Don't be like darn I really need to post something good for this game today or I'm modkilled. This town doesn't need the same information regurgitated for several pages.
I understand this is your first game. It's mine too. But you really need to ask yourself before posting "how is what I'm saying helping the town." Maybe there's something you feel is profound that's in there that I've missed, but clarity is absolutely necessary if you're going to be a good town. People can read Mr K's post. They don't need posts summarizing what he said.
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On July 27 2012 11:54 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 10:17 DarthPunk wrote:So I just read through the thread and the first post that really sprang out at me was this. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote:Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game: Mordanis's's case on KeirathiK (for some reason your name is really hard for me to type) began this game by virtually claiming Town RB. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 05:41 Keirathi wrote:
First things first:
If we have a town roleblocker, I think its best not to use your role early. You generally have as much chance of hurting a teamate as you do a scum. I'm not saying to NEVER use it, but think carefully and only use it if you are reasonably sure that you are blocking a scum.
Some policy discussion:
Lynch All Liars - I'm of the opinion that there are very, very few cases where lying as a townie is beneficial to town. With that said, there ARE cases where it is a realistic option, so I think blanket policy lynching is a fairly bad thing. Case-by-case basis.
Lynch All Lurkers - As much as lurking hurts town, I feel like at least in newbie games, lurking is almost guaranteed. I encourage everyone to try as hard as they can to avoid lurking sot hat we won't have to discuss this later. Lurking as a townie hurts town. Please don't do it. Again, case-by-case basis.
Are all roleblocks notified, or only people with power roles?
I've seen games where it works both ways, so best to clarify early.
. Now this may have been a case of extreme newbiness, which would be understandable, but Mr. K has played in at least 2 other games, so I believe he knew how this post would be interpreted. This brings up 3 possibilities: 1: Mr. K is VT, and he is trying to "take one for the team". He knows that the scum will see this post and read him blue, and he'll die tonight instead of a real blue. If this were to happen, he'd have helped town. If he gets lynched today, it'll be bad for town, but it will be deal-with-able. 2: Mr. K is actually townie RB. Perhaps he is trying to make his "claim" so obvious the scum will think option 1 is happening. Trying to hide out in the open. If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. That said, he implied that he wouldn't want to use it N1 anyway, so the options are virtually the same. 3: Mr. K is scum, and is trying to use this as means to get himself out of trouble. If he ever gets some heat brought to him, he just says "Dude, I basically claimed town RB, I don't think its a good idea to lynch me" The claim also puts pressure on any real blues to claim, and when everyone claims, a claim isn't worth anything. Basically, this post seems mildly non-protown, and it gives him a way to defend himself. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And if this option is the case, scum aren't killing him tonight. Of these three, option 2 seems by far the least probable. So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Still, its pretty early so I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now. Last thing: I have to go to work now, and I'll be back in probably 5 hours (rakin in the cash makin pizza), just FYI. So after some policy discussion Mordanis makes his case against Keirathi. After some WIFOM we get to this - If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. So Keirathi is blue and we are in bad shape if he is NK/Lynched. but then we get to this: If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And this: So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Twice stating that Keirath is is our best lynch at the moment which is a direct contradiction to his other premise. he ends with this: I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now So after backflipping from his first premise (that it would be terribad for Keirathi to be NK and an even worse for us to mislynch him), and TWICE stating that Keirathi is our best Lynch. Mordanis decides that it isn't wise to commit right now after all. This post was WIFOM, contradiction and confusion. At best it is saying something while saying nothing. At worst it is a deliberate attempt of scum to mislynch their blue read day 1. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. Yeah it does doesn't it. FoS Mordanis I'm not sure we can use internal contradictions between Mordanis' three different points as evidence, given that they are illustrating three different "what-ifs". That being said, though, his logic as to why point #2 is the least likely and point #3 is the most likely doesn't hold water (or rather, doesn't exist), and each of his points are pretty farfetched. I'd say he's our best option for a day 1 lynch at this point, but to be extra sure, we should wait until Ange777 has had a chance to post as well, and Mordanis gets back from making pizzas and has had a chance to defend himself. Even if he flips green (which is likely, let's not get our hopes up here), his lynch will tell us a lot about who we should go after next, since people seem to have had strong reactions to both his proposal to go after Keir, his own lynching, and his arguments against policy lynching.
-He posts 3 different scenario's on Keir which contradicted one another (he states these as a 'case', whatever). 2 of the 3 have Keir as a blue and the third as scum. Yet he still sees Keir as the best lynch. The case is completely confused and without a logical narrative, based on a 'virtual claim' by Keirathi that I honestly don't think is there. There is no reason whatsoever that I can think of to make a case with internal contradictions. Am I missing something here?
-It is statistically likely that he will flip green. but you can say that about anyone. If you think he is town or not suspicious don't vote for him. Read filters, make a case etc.
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On July 27 2012 12:18 Golbat wrote:
Keir:
I'm not sure if you understood my post, but I probably wasn't all that clear. What I meant was, if we have no solid reads on who might be scum, then we can lynch a lurker. But, if we do have a good idea of who might be scum, we have to prioritize investigating/lynching them over taking the easy lynch of a lurker.
Basically I think that policy lynching lurkers before considering people who are even the least bit scummy is a bad play. On the flip side, policy lynching liars is not a bad play, because the only reason to lie is because you're scum (apart from potentially claiming VT when actually a blue role, I think).
Not really misunderstood, we're just communicating the same things in different ways. I wasn't disagreeing with you, I was agreeing but with the stipulation that at some point we have to pressure the lurkers or we give scum a "get out of jail free" card.
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Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide:The most useless kind of lynch is a last minute switch that is really easy and safe to hop on the bandwagon for. If there's a highly polarized lynch, the dead information + voting lists can provide a lot, even if the people accused are all innocent (then you can see who's manipulating just out of site).
In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum.
Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide:To keep this simple and save time, let's look at some heuristics to find potential targets, then go through their post history to get the best ones. Here are some common heuristics I use of blue indicators:
-Tries to contribute but doesn't stick their neck out
-Shows fear/wants to instinctively hide
-Drastically lower post quantity compared to games when they are green but still tries to contribute.
-Focuses most of their posts on blue roles or ignores them entirely.
-To figure out which role specifically, they will focus unnatural amounts of attention on that role, know the rules for that role thoroughly, or ignore it entirely while mentioning other blue roles. Figuring out the specific is difficult to ascertain and not always applicable, but these heuristics will hold up more often than not. Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler +). That's why I feel Keir isn't blue, because he seems to be trying to seem blue but some of his actions are the opposite. And there was the public question: when I was vigi, I asked several questions about my role, but to try to hide my role I never posted them publically, I PMd them. His play screams to me a somewhat experienced player trying to fake blue.
I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss.
TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red.
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Good morning. It is currently 9:35 a.m for me over here and seems like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia. This is my second game, so I hope the experience I gain from my first game can at lead town to victory. Here are some tips and thoughts:
@My stance on Day 1 Lynch
I am strongly against day 1 no lynch. Scums starts with an information advantage while townies starts without a clue. I believe by pushing a lynch can lead to more clues (e.g. vote pattern like Shady mentioned). The best outcome, of course, is to get a scum kill, but as long as we don't mislynch a blue, it would still fairly benefit town overall.
@Blue role discussion
There is no reason to talk about blue actions at this point of time. I suggest we drop it and focus on scum hunting instead.
@Lurkers
Lurkers are bad anti-town play. Also, based on circumstances, lynching a scummy lurker is the best outcome. Look at my previous game for correctly lynching a scum lurker in day 1.
I partially blame town lurkers for causing town to lose in my previous game, especially when we got 2 mafias in the beginning of day 2. (Correct d1 lynch + correct n1 vigil kill).
@My policy
I think we should be careful not to base our cases on speculations and far fetched logic. I will look for both townie and scum motives that fits in a person's action and weight accordingly. Also, that also means unless I am certain of your alignment, I am going to doubt every single word you say.
@Mordanis's case on Keirathi
I think Mordanis reads too much into Keirathi's first post. From what I have read, he is merely suggesting roleblocker not to use its power just because they can, its like telling vigilante not to shoot night 1 without a good reason: there is nothing wrong with it, at least not in the light Mordanis put him in. Mordanis also put words into Keirathi's mouth, say he "soft claimed" roleblocker when I don't read it as such no matter what. While this is scummy, I could also interpret this as an over-sensitive town play, and both are as likely.
Ninja'd
I started writing this post at 9:30 a.m. and is currently it is 11:30 a.m. due to work, and it takes a long time for me to type things out. I refreshed to forum I see Mordanis is currently under fire for his post. After reading Darth's case I don't think he is a good day 1 lynch for the following reason.
- The only fault I see in his post is that Mordanis put words into Keirathi's mouth, with his sketchy logic based on his assumption that Kei role claimed.
- Those "contradictory" scenarios are not contradictory because it is not related to each other.
- Mordanis is the first person to bring out a case. Ignoring WIFOM, this is a town favored trait.
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EBWOP:
After reading Darth's case I don't think he mordanis is a good day 1 lynch for the following reason
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On July 27 2012 12:23 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 11:54 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 10:17 DarthPunk wrote:So I just read through the thread and the first post that really sprang out at me was this. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote:Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game: Mordanis's's case on KeirathiK (for some reason your name is really hard for me to type) began this game by virtually claiming Town RB. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 05:41 Keirathi wrote:
First things first:
If we have a town roleblocker, I think its best not to use your role early. You generally have as much chance of hurting a teamate as you do a scum. I'm not saying to NEVER use it, but think carefully and only use it if you are reasonably sure that you are blocking a scum.
Some policy discussion:
Lynch All Liars - I'm of the opinion that there are very, very few cases where lying as a townie is beneficial to town. With that said, there ARE cases where it is a realistic option, so I think blanket policy lynching is a fairly bad thing. Case-by-case basis.
Lynch All Lurkers - As much as lurking hurts town, I feel like at least in newbie games, lurking is almost guaranteed. I encourage everyone to try as hard as they can to avoid lurking sot hat we won't have to discuss this later. Lurking as a townie hurts town. Please don't do it. Again, case-by-case basis.
Are all roleblocks notified, or only people with power roles?
I've seen games where it works both ways, so best to clarify early.
. Now this may have been a case of extreme newbiness, which would be understandable, but Mr. K has played in at least 2 other games, so I believe he knew how this post would be interpreted. This brings up 3 possibilities: 1: Mr. K is VT, and he is trying to "take one for the team". He knows that the scum will see this post and read him blue, and he'll die tonight instead of a real blue. If this were to happen, he'd have helped town. If he gets lynched today, it'll be bad for town, but it will be deal-with-able. 2: Mr. K is actually townie RB. Perhaps he is trying to make his "claim" so obvious the scum will think option 1 is happening. Trying to hide out in the open. If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. That said, he implied that he wouldn't want to use it N1 anyway, so the options are virtually the same. 3: Mr. K is scum, and is trying to use this as means to get himself out of trouble. If he ever gets some heat brought to him, he just says "Dude, I basically claimed town RB, I don't think its a good idea to lynch me" The claim also puts pressure on any real blues to claim, and when everyone claims, a claim isn't worth anything. Basically, this post seems mildly non-protown, and it gives him a way to defend himself. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And if this option is the case, scum aren't killing him tonight. Of these three, option 2 seems by far the least probable. So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Still, its pretty early so I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now. Last thing: I have to go to work now, and I'll be back in probably 5 hours (rakin in the cash makin pizza), just FYI. So after some policy discussion Mordanis makes his case against Keirathi. After some WIFOM we get to this - If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. So Keirathi is blue and we are in bad shape if he is NK/Lynched. but then we get to this: If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And this: So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Twice stating that Keirath is is our best lynch at the moment which is a direct contradiction to his other premise. he ends with this: I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now So after backflipping from his first premise (that it would be terribad for Keirathi to be NK and an even worse for us to mislynch him), and TWICE stating that Keirathi is our best Lynch. Mordanis decides that it isn't wise to commit right now after all. This post was WIFOM, contradiction and confusion. At best it is saying something while saying nothing. At worst it is a deliberate attempt of scum to mislynch their blue read day 1. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. Yeah it does doesn't it. FoS Mordanis I'm not sure we can use internal contradictions between Mordanis' three different points as evidence, given that they are illustrating three different "what-ifs". That being said, though, his logic as to why point #2 is the least likely and point #3 is the most likely doesn't hold water (or rather, doesn't exist), and each of his points are pretty farfetched. I'd say he's our best option for a day 1 lynch at this point, but to be extra sure, we should wait until Ange777 has had a chance to post as well, and Mordanis gets back from making pizzas and has had a chance to defend himself. Even if he flips green (which is likely, let's not get our hopes up here), his lynch will tell us a lot about who we should go after next, since people seem to have had strong reactions to both his proposal to go after Keir, his own lynching, and his arguments against policy lynching. -He posts 3 different scenario's on Keir which contradicted one another (he states these as a 'case', whatever). 2 of the 3 have Keir as a blue and the third as scum. Yet he still sees Keir as the best lynch. The case is completely confused and without a logical narrative, based on a 'virtual claim' by Keirathi that I honestly don't think is there. There is no reason whatsoever that I can think of to make a case with internal contradictions. Am I missing something here? -It is statistically likely that he will flip green. but you can say that about anyone. If you think he is town or not suspicious don't vote for him. Read filters, make a case etc.
Nope, you're not missing anything. However, I was saying that it's fine to post scenarios which are mutually contradictory. That in and of itself should not be grounds to dismiss someone's arguments. I agree though that Mordanis' case itself doesn't make much sense.
The reason I think it's likely he'll flip green right now is because we haven't been able to see his response to these accusations. If he responds in the way in which I think he will (or chooses not to respond at all) then I think he's a clear red.
The other reason I think it's likely he'll flip green is because in the other games I looked through, it was very hard for the town to actually make a successful day 1 lynch. That doesn't mean we shouldn't try, though. Generally a Day 1 lynch is critical for filtering out who is actually a contributing member of the town versus who is simply generating more heat than light.
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On July 27 2012 12:51 Shady Sands wrote:
The other reason I think it's likely he'll flip green is because in the other games I looked through, it was very hard for the town to actually make a successful day 1 lynch. That doesn't mean we shouldn't try, though. Generally a Day 1 lynch is critical for filtering out who is actually a contributing member of the town versus who is simply generating more heat than light.
EBWOP: That point was in response to those who were arguing for a no-lynch, not in response to your arguments.
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The reason I am talking about blues is because Keir seems to be trying to make people who are looking for blues beeline to him, but his play doesn't resonate with that of a true blue. If he's green, then he's trying to secretly manipulate the scum (trying to secretly "dig a yard under to make your enemy hoist to his own petard" is very dangerous), potentially harming town as a whole. The alternative is that he's red and trying to force the real blues to claim, and possibly being able to get out of a lynch by claiming Town RB. I have no idea which is more likely, but I think he is more likely scum than anyone else at this moment. That said, I need to eat and then read through more carefully before I can go any further.
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@Mordanis. Thanks for your rebuttal I will try and read through it carefully. One thing though.
On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote:
Keir is almost certainly green or red.
Seriously?
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On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote:Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +The most useless kind of lynch is a last minute switch that is really easy and safe to hop on the bandwagon for. If there's a highly polarized lynch, the dead information + voting lists can provide a lot, even if the people accused are all innocent (then you can see who's manipulating just out of site).
In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +To keep this simple and save time, let's look at some heuristics to find potential targets, then go through their post history to get the best ones. Here are some common heuristics I use of blue indicators:
-Tries to contribute but doesn't stick their neck out
-Shows fear/wants to instinctively hide
-Drastically lower post quantity compared to games when they are green but still tries to contribute.
-Focuses most of their posts on blue roles or ignores them entirely.
-To figure out which role specifically, they will focus unnatural amounts of attention on that role, know the rules for that role thoroughly, or ignore it entirely while mentioning other blue roles. Figuring out the specific is difficult to ascertain and not always applicable, but these heuristics will hold up more often than not. Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler +). That's why I feel Keir isn't blue, because he seems to be trying to seem blue but some of his actions are the opposite. And there was the public question: when I was vigi, I asked several questions about my role, but to try to hide my role I never posted them publically, I PMd them. His play screams to me a somewhat experienced player trying to fake blue. I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red.
Your whole case was based on a false premise: that I was pseudo-claiming RB. Like I said immediately after you posted, that is not the case at all. I am not roleblocker. Just making sure everyone knows.
As far as Ver's quote: I made one post discussing one blue role out of the 4 (5 if you count Mason as a blue role) possible town power roles.
Again, I was mentioning it because it was brought up in a previous game, so might as well head off the discussion early and make my stance known (just for reference, my stance is that if we have a town RBer, he should *NOT* day 1 claim, and he should be very careful with his powers, erring to the side of not using it unless hes 90% sure he's blocking a scum).
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On July 27 2012 12:53 Mordanis wrote:
The reason I am talking about blues is because Keir seems to be trying to make people who are looking for blues beeline to him, but his play doesn't resonate with that of a true blue. If he's green, then he's trying to secretly manipulate the scum (trying to secretly "dig a yard under to make your enemy hoist to his own petard" is very dangerous), potentially harming town as a whole. The alternative is that he's red and trying to force the real blues to claim, and possibly being able to get out of a lynch by claiming Town RB. I have no idea which is more likely, but I think he is more likely scum than anyone else at this moment. That said, I need to eat and then read through more carefully before I can go any further.
You are REALLY fixated on asserting that Keir is trying to make others think he is. It seems to be that a lot of us disagree with you. For the life of me I can't understand why you're trying to get him lynched for attempting to teach whoever the Town RB is (if there even is one) how to play the role. It's an important thing to know, and might have prevented the Town RB from accidentally blocking the cop from using his power on one of the most important night phases of the game.
This IS a newbie mafia after all, would you be doing the same thing if he told the vigilante not to shoot someone on night one?
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Mordanis' response pretty much sealed the deal for me. I think it is clear that Mordanis is a red. Let's parse through his response.
On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote:
Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going.
I'm completely unsure of what point Mordanis is trying to make here. So people who post are innocent, and people who don't post are also innocent? The town isn't talking about lynching people for heading to work--it's talking about lynching people who have never made a single post since the game began.
I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +The most useless kind of lynch is a last minute switch that is really easy and safe to hop on the bandwagon for. If there's a highly polarized lynch, the dead information + voting lists can provide a lot, even if the people accused are all innocent (then you can see who's manipulating just out of site).
In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum.
Nothing to argue against here, but when combined with the next part of Mordanis' post, it gets troubling:
Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +To keep this simple and save time, let's look at some heuristics to find potential targets, then go through their post history to get the best ones. Here are some common heuristics I use of blue indicators:
-Tries to contribute but doesn't stick their neck out
-Shows fear/wants to instinctively hide
-Drastically lower post quantity compared to games when they are green but still tries to contribute.
-Focuses most of their posts on blue roles or ignores them entirely.
-To figure out which role specifically, they will focus unnatural amounts of attention on that role, know the rules for that role thoroughly, or ignore it entirely while mentioning other blue roles. Figuring out the specific is difficult to ascertain and not always applicable, but these heuristics will hold up more often than not. Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler +). That's why I feel Keir isn't blue, because he seems to be trying to seem blue but some of his actions are the opposite. And there was the public question: when I was vigi, I asked several questions about my role, but to try to hide my role I never posted them publically, I PMd them. His play screams to me a somewhat experienced player trying to fake blue.
So... wait a second. Mordanis thinks that because Keir posted a policy question, then fits two out of the five other indicators for being blue, he's trying to fake blue? Then Mordanis cites his own actions playing as a blue in a prior game to contrast with Keir's supposed blue fakery. This is weak logic at best, but when combined with his last post, really makes things an open and shut case:
I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss.
TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red.
On July 27 2012 12:53 Mordanis wrote:
The reason I am talking about blues is because Keir seems to be trying to make people who are looking for blues beeline to him, but his play doesn't resonate with that of a true blue. If he's green, then he's trying to secretly manipulate the scum (trying to secretly "dig a yard under to make your enemy hoist to his own petard" is very dangerous), potentially harming town as a whole. The alternative is that he's red and trying to force the real blues to claim, and possibly being able to get out of a lynch by claiming Town RB. I have no idea which is more likely, but I think he is more likely scum than anyone else at this moment. That said, I need to eat and then read through more carefully before I can go any further.
Mordanis claims Keir is trying to make people who are looking for blues beeline to him. This is a claim that Mordanis has not backed up with logic. All Keir said was for RBs not to RB on day 1. That's not trying to make blues beeline to him, it's sound advice--just like telling vigis not to waste their hits on night 1.
Second, how does Keir's behavior not resonate with that of a "true blue?" Throughout both his posts, Mordanis has claimed to be able to tell who a "true blue" is, but he hasn't really shared what the criteria are other than saying "be lurky but still contribute", which is so vague as to be meaningless.
Third, where has Keir claimed town RB? Where has he encouraged blues to roleclaim? Indeed, these two sentences serve only one purpose: showing that somehow, Mordanis is scared of blues roleclaiming to Keir because of some unstated belief that Keir is red.
When you look at all that, and the weak logic against Keir, then what you see is the following pattern:
Mordanis first claims that Keir is the likeliest candidate for lynching because he a likely candidate to be red. Then he backs off and claims that Keir could go red or green. Then he argues that we should lynch controversial candidates first. The point is, lynching controversial candidates would be fine, if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. This totally smacks of a Red finding out his original tactic for generating a bandwagon has failed, acknowledging that he is the only one arguing for a lynch, and then stating that because he is the only one arguing for a lynch, the person is "controversial" and should be lynched.
What?
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EPT
