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On July 18 2012 19:15 Risen wrote:
Sigh... I don't think gonzaw is scum and I wanted to live through the night so I was playing stupid but I guess my claim was going to force me to go all in sooner or later. I'm inclined to think you're town, as well. I really think scum team is keir/matt. Wanted to keep my suspicions of him masked until keir flipped.
So what is this awesome scum read you have on me based on purely meta again?
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On July 18 2012 22:17 s0Lstice wrote:
We should also talk about the NK a bit. Austin has been playing pretty good town recently, so I don't think he was a terrible target for anyone as scum. Still though, I am having difficulty believing that scum Gonzaw would not try for either sciberbia or mattchew.
Mattchew especially, since he is a vet and good player overall. I would think the optimal play for scum Gonzaw would be to kill Matt and then WIFOM his way out of the increased guilt.
Anyone else thought about this at all?
I was expecting austin to be the NK if gonzaw is mafia. Gonzaw listed austin and me in his "you are so fucking town it hurts" category. Combined with the fact that I had a townread on austin and nobody else had really accused him recently, gonzaw would have a hard time ever getting austin lynched. Looking back through his filter, gonzaw has recently been grouping austin and me together a lot. Maybe he figured out austin was mason and thought I was the mason partner?
I was half-expecting myself to die, but gonzaw surely expected jailkeeper (if there is one) to be on me rather than austin.
And I wasn't really expecting Mattchew to die, although I can see how he'd be a decent choice. Still, there is a good amount of cumulative suspicion on Mattchew (although I'm not really sure why).
In conclusion, I think the death of austin is evidence against gonzaw if anything.
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nobody claimed RB'ed on N1. if there is a JK, what was he doing?
I hate set-up speculation...but how likely is it that town has a DT, JK, and two masons in a 13 player mini?
I'm kind of thinking there isn't one
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EBWOP: what I'm getting at is that concluding there is no JK would mean that scum wouldn't have to worry about protects, which should change your reasoning a bit no?
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If I were scum, I wouldn't bank on the fact that nobody claimed RB N1 to assume there is no jailkeeper. Maybe somebody didn't check their PM or just didn't want to claim for whatever reason.
Also, scum didn't know until today about the mason pair and DT, so that wouldn't have factored into their NK decision last night.
Finally, I don't think JK + cop + mason pair is imbalanced, but I'm kinda a pro-town kinda guy so >_>
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gonzaw
My suspicions are kinda broken up over two previous posts and this one. To recap, here are reasons why I was suspicious of gonzaw after N1:
-- has not actually contributed all that much to lynching scum
-- I feel like he's been buddying me
-- he contradicted himself on one of keirathi's posts
-- marv died N1
-- he repeatedly said D1 was shitty
-- he tried to get Mattchew lynched off what IMO is just not a scumtell (Mattchew's disappearence)
-- the 'milkton' possible scumslip
-- talis gives some bad reasons for a townread on gonzaw D1
-- talis's reads seem like they were sheeped off gonzaw
Here are further reasons I have to be suspicious of gonzaw for D2 and N2:
I think austin as the NK is minor evidence against gonzaw
I explained this in my last post
gonzaw seemed a bit slow to get on board with the talis lynch
I think Mattchew talked about this in his case during N2.
Gonzaw made a small case against talis during N1. Within the first 12-18 hours of D2, Mattchew and I posted cases against talis, both of us confident that he was scum, and we both voted him.
I think it was pretty clear that talis was the primary candidate for lynch at that point. But gonzaw didn't really address talis for quite a while, even though I explicitly asked him twice.
On July 16 2012 04:58 sciberbia wrote:
Just woke up. I'm a little disappointed that my case for talis hasn't received more support. His defense was reasonable, but I still feel pretty strongly that he is scum.
@gonzaw
What do you think of talis right now? Would you be happy lynching him today?
On July 16 2012 06:28 gonzaw wrote:
Dunno about talis yet, I'm having some difficulty trying to figure out the whole tails/Dropbear/solstice situation; but I'll make sure to read on that.
On July 16 2012 09:02 sciberbia wrote:
@gonzaw
Please post your most current thoughts on talis.
On July 16 2012 09:19 gonzaw wrote:
I found him initially suspicious last night, and so far I didn't see anything that would change my mind from him when I skimmed the thread.
But damn I still haven't finished reading the thread in its whole :/ (still haven't reached most of the cases done this day)
Too little time to do everything.
On July 16 2012 11:45 gonzaw wrote:
For now I wouldn't oppose a talismania lynch at all by what I've skimmed (plus talismania has basically been useless all late-D1, and all D2 as well).
I don't know if maybe I'd support a solstice lynch better, or if I change my mind and find Dropbear more scummy, but we'll see once I read the thread once and for all!
Stay tuned.
On July 16 2012 11:47 gonzaw wrote:
Fuck it I doubt I'll change my mind about talismania.
##Vote: talismania
Just wanted to get the vote out there for a more "official" standing of what I said before.
If gonzaw is town, I'd have expected him to be a lot more enthusiastic about the talis lynch. He posted significant suspicions of talis during N1. Then Mattchew and I post very confident (I think persuasive) cases on talis at the beginning of D2.
Whereas if gonzaw is scum, I can see him being rattled by so much suspicion on his godfather, and by the fact that I called out a possible talis + gonzaw scumteam. Which might explain why he didn't seem quite on point, as Mattchew pointed out.
His D2 play definitely felt different than his D1 play. I guess it's possible he was just disturbed by fatigue and the fact that he seemed to be losing thread control, but his prancing around the talis issue doesn't bode too well for him.
Gonzaw's accusations of talis D2 felt misplaced
Shortly before the deadline, gonzaw made two rather sizeable posts against talis. One with general accusations and then one reassuring people that talis's absence implicates him as scum.
+ Show Spoiler +On July 17 2012 06:05 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 05:04 Keirathi wrote:
Also @sciberbia: why am I not your top candidate anymore? You repeatedly stated at the end of Day1 that I was your biggest scum read, but you were going to consolidate onto Vivax just to avoid the no-lynch, which is fine.
But by this point, I had already done all the "towntelling" things that you give matt poins for pointing out in your Matt defense post.
What happened to change your mind when I really didn't do anything during the night and was out of town for basically the entire day? Can you comment on other issues? What about solstice, S&B, Mattchew, Risen, and all the stuff that was discussed about them? Of course who you want to lynch is a very important one (I'd like sciberbia to answer that though, doesn't hurt anybody)
About talis:Before his "plan", I actually found him kind of town. He posted that graph of posts from all his last 5 games to "check his meta", and well that seems like a lot of effort (don't know if he did it in pre-game though). Plus the tone of some of the things he said and just a little gut feeling of the way he interacted with people made me think he was town at that point (and I get a little townie feels right now, although I don't know if I should take them into account or not). Hmm, the "plan" itself didn't seem scummy in my mind. It did spark some discussion, and to be honest I didn't really see the plan as "the most anti-town thing" in the way that I could see him posting it as town. His "gauging reactions" is null basically. The thing is that from that point onwards his play totally decays. He spends way too much time talking about the validity of his "plan", and spends way too much time just prodding Dropbear with the same stuff (Dropbear insta-voting Vivax). After that he doesn't seem to care in my mind. Responding to unrelated stuff he never follows (like telling marv about his "nice shit" on solstice, telling Risen to post his thoughts about what I said of him), having an "I don't care" attitude (when he posts thoughts about Milton and austin for instance, and the tone of his posts) and even having that attitude with his reads (like the ones in the post where he voted Dropbear) give me that feeling. The thing about his play decaying is that it didn't seem like he'd play like that at all once the game started. Once the game started and he started to have discussions about the setup, and the way he responded to people and stuff I had the feeling he'd keep up with that kind of play the whole game, which is why I didn't find him suspicious. But having his play decay so fast is worrying, since it makes it seem his "townie early D1" feel was just a façade. He seems to not care at all at the time of the lynch and after that (I've already posted about this on N1). He doesn't care about lynching Dropbear it seems, he's just there, asking some questions, blending in, doing shit and posting one-liners. That lack of effort and care about the lynch is damning. I'm trying to think if I'm wrong and he could have done that as town but I don't see many possibilities, specially because of this: Show nested quote +I was at work, working. And refreshing the thread. I agree with you and gonzaw though I should have done more to get dropbear lynched but the way the wagon completely left me and formed up on him threw me and I was doubting myself, especially after last game where I just tunneled HiroPro and more or less cost town the game because of it. That's the excuse he makes for his behaviour last day. That's no excuse to not care about the lynch. If he was actually at work refreshing the thread, it only means he doesn't have time to reread stuff (thread+filters), and think too much about things. That would actually indicate that his play should be more "reactive". As in, if he's constantly refreshing the thread, then his posts should be more of a reaction to what's posted each time he refreshes. As in, if someone votes Vivax or Dropbear he'd try to react to that, specially if the D1 lynch is at stake and he's just playing like I said he'd be playing. Even if he started to doubt Dropbear being scum (which he didn't show at all), at least he would have been more "anxious" and "nervous" considering the lynch wasn't decided until 3 minutes before the deadline. Any townie would be nervous by that point, specially if they were only paying attention to the thread by refreshing it constantly and not reading filters/etc. I can't see him doing that as town. Not only that, but his contributions from D2 are him either: -Just defending himself -Shitting on Mattchew The lack of effort is damning as hell. He doesn't even try. Hell he hasn't even posted at all for 24 hours or so I think. I find it more and more likely that he's scum knowing he was found and just not caring anymore. I get paranoid that he'd even act like this as town though, but hopefully is not the case. tl;dr: Talis is scum unless I'm paranoid about him playing like shit as town.
About solstice I'm not really sure right now since him going against Risen seems legitimate for me, if I have time before leaving I'll reread him. There seems that a lot of people are treading to a modkill and that's not good.
I'm leaving right at the deadline (I have to be in uni 30 minutes later), and I don't know if the flip will be "instantaneous" or not so I may not be around when tails flips, and I don't know when I'll come back (at most 3-4 hours from then, but I don't really know).
+ Show Spoiler +On July 17 2012 06:15 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 06:06 Keirathi wrote:
I feel like disappearing is more of a frustrated townie trait than a frustrated scum one. That's what made me a little bit paranoid, but the thing is that there is almost no indication that he was frustrated. Take for instance a town VE going to be misslynched where he ragequits in frustration (basically every time he's town  ). He always makes an initial effort to change the lynch off him, he always tries to at least reason a little bit with the people accusing him; and if he finds his efforts futile, then he quits in frustration. To quit in frustration it means you actually have to try to be frustrated in the first place, at least by justifying it in-game (if he's frustrated because his cat died and he sees everybody accusing him it would be another thing, but he hasn't said anything about it so I'll disregard it). I can't see someone quitting in frustration if there is no reason to be so frustrated in the first place, and if the first thing you do is quit before even trying to change the tide of the game (i.e not getting lynched, or hoping to catch some scum even if you are) then you are not likely town at all since no townie would do that. Also: Show nested quote +On July 16 2012 05:09 talismania wrote:On July 16 2012 04:58 sciberbia wrote:
Just woke up. I'm a little disappointed that my case for talis hasn't received more support. His defense was reasonable, but I still feel pretty strongly that he is scum.
@gonzaw
What do you think of talis right now? Would you be happy lynching him today?
so... what still makes you think I'm scum? Show nested quote +On July 16 2012 05:29 talismania wrote:
Actually, Dropbear what do you think of me now? These don't look like posts from someone "ragequitting". He's asking people and supposedly expecting their answers, you don't "ragequit" before you even hear them or acknowledge them. I don't see him quitting as "frustrated" at all.....but I'm paranoid that he's busy or some shit and doesn't care or something. Hopefully (like I said) that's not the case, and there are other tiny bits that make me think talis is scum.
These were posted like an hour before the deadline. IMO, it was already abundantly clear that talis was going to be lynched. So these large posts accusing talis feel kinda unnecessary. I could see them from a town gonzaw but they do feel like a bus.
wishy/washiness after D1 (or at least changes his mind a hell of a lot)
Honestly by D3 I'd expect a player like gonzaw to have said "Player X is very likely scum. I demand that we lynch him." But he has seemed uncharacteristically wishy/washy since N1. His filter is quite long, but here are some examples:
wishy/washiness on Mattchew:+ Show Spoiler +On July 14 2012 12:39 gonzaw wrote:
This is just too much. I had him as townie in early game but I can't believe a town Mattchew would do something like this, unless he was somehow hospitalized right after he made that post or something.
Damn, I really thought he was town wtf is going on? :/
On July 15 2012 09:50 gonzaw wrote:
I expect some serious explanation from Mattchew. Like, I thought he was town but what you did made no fucking sense I'm contemplating lynching you just because of it (specially since you went AFK all night just to make a stupid drunk post as well).
On July 16 2012 06:28 gonzaw wrote:
I see Mattchew just came right off the bat with a case and a vote...and I don't know if I like that (I didn't see him explaining wtf he did last day).
On July 16 2012 06:53 gonzaw wrote:
I'm torn because his earlier posts did seem townie, but that behaviour of his strikes some doubt (specially if it wasn't for some outside reason, like getting his internet connection cut or something).
I'll try to drop the subject before reading this thread and his case on talis; but this is basically exclusive since it's about his earlier behaviour.
On July 16 2012 07:04 gonzaw wrote:
I'm talking about the action itself and how it isn't a "town tell" coming from Mattchew.
I said I'm reading the thread later (I'm not actually seriously accusing him right now, at least not before reading his other posts), I just want a (justified) explanation for that previous behaviour of his (you can't tell me it wasn't odd as fuck, everybody noticed it).
I already talked about his posting before his "derp", although I skimmed his posts afterwards (from this D2) and they aren't that "townie" as his first ones. On July 16 2012 11:45 gonzaw wrote:
About Mattchew:
I may agree with his case on talis (need to filter talis first), but after that he doesn't really do a good job of explaining himself (about his behaviour or why he thinks I'm scum).
I don't like how he's casting suspicion on me right now either, yet refuses to say anything about me or why he changed his town read on me.
However, I could see town Mattchew just not caring about his D1 fluke and thinking I'm shitting up the thread about it (thus making him a little bit more suspicious of me), but those reasons above don't make me confident in thinking he's town at all, specially since I know Mattchew is capable of doing that "fluke" as scum just to skate by D1, whether other people find it scummy or not (he wouldn't really care as scum).
This is why I'm torn on him, and why I wanted that explanation from him.
I would also like an explanation on what he thinks of sciberbia ever since early-D1 and why he changed his mind on me (him not responding these strike me as suspicious as well, since again I can easily see scum Mattchew just not caring about it at this point).
He had a good start that made me think he was town but some of his actions and behaviour made me doubt that (since scum Matthew could have just tried to appear pro-town on early-D1 like that)
On July 17 2012 06:55 gonzaw wrote:
Mattchew wtf those posts you make are so scummy at times. You park your vote on talis, go AFK for the rest of the day and now you show up all "confident" and still lacking words about anything else. On July 17 2012 07:01 gonzaw wrote:
Damn I dunno
Ehm...I think the time is over already, but I wouldn't like a NL but rather lynch Mattchew right now. On July 17 2012 07:04 gonzaw wrote:
Mattchew D3 lynch I say (seemed like bus and you are scummy as fuck)
on strongandbig: + Show Spoiler +On July 14 2012 13:32 gonzaw wrote:
About S&B:
I want to lynch this guy tomorrow.
...
Scummy as fuck.
..
Like, he seems too scummy and nothing like his play in MTG (he was more active in discussion there, his posts made more sense, he wasn't this "trollish" and he didn't just post out of nowhere with random stuff?and didn't care about the current discussion, at least not when he was active).
I could see him posting some stuff as town (like asking me about why I'm "not caring" about the setup, flip-flopping on his solstice read in that post seems like he was a townie changing his mind quickly, him backing off keiarth), but his attitude and content convince me otherwise.
On July 15 2012 06:10 gonzaw wrote:
Agh fuck this I can't shake that feeling from the other game and maybe you are genuinely frustrated at me with that vendetta of yours.
If you are town please calm down and put more effort.
On July 16 2012 06:28 gonzaw wrote:
Skimming the thread, I got a weird feeling of solstice going against S&B, but that's maybe because I got a change of mind about S&B and wanted to give him a little break.
on Risen+ Show Spoiler +On July 14 2012 07:13 gonzaw wrote:
Hmm, I'm getting the feeling you are town Risen, you are too invested in the game and really care about the lynch, and you are very active at it and act too "cool" around it.
Don't know what Vivax was saying about you being scum, might need to reread.
On July 14 2012 13:02 gonzaw wrote:
It does seem like you are over-enthusiastic townie instead of scum (because scum rarely do what you did and try to take complete control of D1 and be active as shit), but hey!, after your LIII game I won't take any chances with you, and it's possible you'll do this as scum.
On July 17 2012 07:04 gonzaw wrote:
Mattchew D3 lynch I say (seemed like bus and you are scummy as fuck)
Risen could be, he hasn't done shit.
Maybe not so much on Risen. But it's at least fair to say he hasn't taken a hard stance one way or the other.
He doesn't strongly accuse anyone at all until his "YOU ARE SCUM" post on talis an hour before the deadline. He seems neutralish on keirathi/miltonkram. He leans town on dropbear. He says he thinks s0Lstice is scum, but I don't see a whole lot of reasoning on s0Lstice.
Reaction at beginning of D3
His reaction to the cop claim is kinda fishy. He asks, "Did you check me or not?", which sounds like a mafia talking. He also keeps his options open by disappearing for a little while (or maybe he is just busy).
What makes me hesitate
I looked through his entire mafia history, and I can't find any scum games that look as pro-town as this game. His D1 play still has a distinctly pro-town feel. Several things he has said are either towntells or the product of some devious scum play. His filter this game looks closest to TL Mafia LIII where he was town.
IN CONCLUSION
I think gonzaw is our best lynch today. It's reassuring that Mattchew and strongandbig seem to think so as well. Still, I'm not as sure about him as I was about talismania. I wouldn't be that surprised if he is town. So I'm going to withhold my vote for now. My next strongest scumread after gonzaw would probably be s0Lstice right now (maybe keirathi), but s0Lstice was cleared by Risen so I don't think I'd feel good about lynching him today. I think I'll end up voting gonzaw, but I want to see him make some posts first.
@gonzaw
Please make a case against your top scumread. During D2 you said you thought s0Lstice was scum but I don't see a case against him. Do you still think s0Lstice is scum? What about Mattchew?
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On July 18 2012 19:15 Risen wrote:
Sigh... I don't think gonzaw is scum and I wanted to live through the night so I was playing stupid but I guess my claim was going to force me to go all in sooner or later. I'm inclined to think you're town, as well. I really think scum team is keir/matt. Wanted to keep my suspicions of him masked until keir flipped.
what. this makes no sense to me.
why would you claim your role but then "keep your suspicions veiled"? Why would you let everyone think you thought gonzaw was scum, if you didn't really think he was scum?
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On July 18 2012 19:33 sciberbia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 16:48 Keirathi wrote:On July 18 2012 16:46 Risen wrote:
It's hilarious how scummy keirathi's posting is. (i guess I'm the only one seeing it though since you have to take my being a cop as true to see it that way)
And maybe strongandbig sees it. Then fucking lynch me today so you can get past your tunnel vision that you had with Vivax and maybe make an actual good read. I'm serious, as much as I don't want us to lynch a townie today, I would rather Risen not be biased and tunneling me and not trying to find the real scum. ##Vote: Keirathi @Keirathi What is with this attitude? If you are town, please play to win. You're saying that we should kill you so that we realize you are town and can turn our attention to finding the real scum? Gimme a break. I don't think I have to explain to you why this is anti-town logic. This is making me slightly more suspicious of you. Please play to win.
Also, I am a bit surprised by the overwhelming anti-gonzaw sentiment. Did you guys think Risen had a guilty on gonzaw? As far as I know, only Mattchew and I expressed any serious suspicion of gonzaw prior to the daypost. Despite the rather odd bandwaggon on gonzaw, all signs seem to be pointing towards gonzaw being scum. I still want to reread more of D2, but gonzaw's D2 behavior seems suspicious. I'll make a post about him before I leave for work.
Arguing with him left me exasperated and extremely frustrated.
If he is really cop, which I still have some difficulty believing, then at least if I die today he won't waste his night check on me and might actually find a scum instead of confirming another townie. Or if he gets NK'd then we have 3 confirmed townies in the 5v2 day, which is a 50/50 chance of hitting scum.
My vote was entirely because I thought Risen had a scum check. I dunno if his goal was to mislead, but thats what I took from his post when I first realized he was cop. Then I thought through it more and realized we had only had 2 nights, so him saying gonzaw was "pretty much confirmed scum in my eyes" was just trying to pull the wool over people's eyes.
@s0lstice: yea I had been thinking about the possibility of there being JK+masons+cop. I dunno how likely it is, but I haven't seen a mini with 3 blues yet in the few I've read through.
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EBWOP: also I can poke so many holes into the way Risen has acted, especially today, that I feel like I'm inadvertently going to tunnel him and it will cloud my judgement regarding other cases.
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On July 15 2012 07:58 austinmcc wrote:
Gonzaw, you can't game the setup without knowing exactly how it works.
WoF - No spreadsheet/list easily visible and I'm lazy. I think no sk. Believe he's tweaked system since then.
Emergency - 5 vts, 3 scum, sk, 4 blues
Movie mini - 6 vts, 3 scum, sk, 3 blues
@Keirathi
I'm not sure why, but apparently it's only the newbie mini towns that get screwed over by having no good blues. Mason + DT + JK is not out of the question balance-wise. I still don't see the need for us to go JK-hunting though, so I think we should put the issue to rest for now.
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Well, it kind of makes sense for newbie games. But I was looking outside of newbie games too. In face I remember a quote someone said about GMarshal not hosting any games with more than 2 blues (lately?), but I can't find it now. But you're right, its just speculation with no real benefit, and harmful if we do have a JK and he's forced to claim.
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okay so wait a minute actually
risen when you said + Show Spoiler [this] +On July 18 2012 07:24 Risen wrote:
Town in my eyes
me
strongandbig
s0Lstice
dude whatever it's summer
miltonkram
dropbear
keirathi
sciberbia
mattchew (completely dependent on gonzaw flip or mason claim)
scummy as fuck
gonzaw (I'm going to hold that the misspelling of milton's name was a scumslip, also see other cases posted)
##vote gonzaw
List order is from town in my eyes to scum in my eyes. If gonzaw flips scum Mattchew becomes scummier in my eyes (unless he's the mason partner in which case confirmed town). I don't think milton is scummy b/c why would his teammates misspell his name. Dropbear and tali beign scum would mean double scum up for lynch d1 and I don't see that as likely. Scib and Keir could be swapped, I can't tell whether my dislike of Keir is b/c he doesn't like me or b/c I genuinely find him scummy.
I would really like to claim so if the mason could claim right now I'd be pretty pleased. There's a good chance that with mason claim we might just be winning (regardless of gonzaw alignment)
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On July 18 2012 22:17 s0Lstice wrote:
We should also talk about the NK a bit. Austin has been playing pretty good town recently, so I don't think he was a terrible target for anyone as scum. Still though, I am having difficulty believing that scum Gonzaw would not try for either sciberbia or mattchew.
Mattchew especially, since he is a vet and good player overall. I would think the optimal play for scum Gonzaw would be to kill Matt and then WIFOM his way out of the increased guilt.
Anyone else thought about this at all?
Don't WIFOM about it.
I specifically said austin/sciberbia were basically "confirmed townies" or something last post. If I was scum I'd shoot one of them and try to get a misslynch on Mattchew (as you think he's town).
Now that I think about it, nobody claimed RBed on N1 therefore scum could have known there wasn't a JK at all in this game, so they could kill austin or sciberbia as they pleased (I thought they'd kill sciberbia though...that was an odd choice, unless they banked on him leading the misslynch on me)
Yeah, doesn't work in my favour but at least stop the WIFOM about it
About Risen's claim:
Hmm, the ONLY way I could see scum Risen fake-claiming like that, is if solstice is his scumbuddy.
Risen's claim gave us a lot of info. Specifically, that if either of S&B or solstice are scum, then Risen HAS to be their scumbuddy.
If S&B is scum, Risen HAS to be scum
If solstice is scum, Risen HAS to be scum.
If Risen was scum, I don't think he'd give us this info he gave us, since it takes away lots of doubt.
I'm thinking his claim is legit.
We have 3 lynches to kill scum, meaning there will be 2 night kills in between.
If Risen was scum with S&B/solstice, I don't really see scum not shooting one of them in these next 2 nights at all, and if Risen+solstice or Risen+S&B are the scumteams, it'd put a LOT of pressure on them once that doesn't happen and once they are still alive in LYLO.
Risens' reaction towards lynching me this day, then completely changing his mind and saying it was to see reactions, was weird, and I don't really know what to think of it.
Hmm, it gives me a little bit more town feelings, since if Risen got a wagon on me so easily, I don't see why he'd want to stop it as scum, specially if later he says he actually thinks I'm town or something and opposes my lynch today (or prefers one on Keirathi).
Scum Risen does lots of crazy stuff so I maybe shouldn't consider him "confirmed town" by now >_>
This makes me more sure of S&B being town....but damn I guess solstice is town as well? I find that pill hard to swallow right now, but it's possible.
Hmm, I guess there's no harm in applying Occam's Razor and say all 3 of S&B/solstice/Risen are town without the need to lynch Risen or anything. If anything is wrong at all is that the scum team is Risen+solstice, but I think that's unlikely since Risen basically outed his own scumteam with this play of his (if that was the case).
About Milton's RB claim:
I do find it strange...the thing is that it's possible there is a RBer in this setup.
We obviously don't have a JK, since nobody claimed RBed (therefore nobody claimed "jailed") on N1.
Could have Milton's RB claim come from a town RBer?
If this was the case, then town would have 2 Masons, 1 Cop and 1 RBer. In C9++ and similar setups that's A LOT of blues. If this was the case then scum wouldn't have only 2 Goons remaining (I'll assume there are 2 scum remaining from now on).
If this was the case as well, the Town RBer should have claimed by now to ease any doubts we had and so he could be a "confirmed town" (however because of the above I doubt this scenario is happening).
Therefore if Milton's claim is true, he was RBed by a scum RBer.
...and it's possible. If we take Risen's claim as true, then we have 2 Masons (I'll assume the remaining mason is Dropbear) and 1 Cop.
Just by using the C9++ wiki page (yeah, these setups are different, but it's just as an example), that means we have CCMM, leaving TTT which is just 1 step above from Goon+Roleblocker+Godfather (if wbg changed the setup, he could have included that combination in the TTT one), so it's possible.
It's also possible we have 2 Goons+Godfather though...since it's one step below the TTT's I just mentioned (and again, wbg could have changed the setup to reflect that scenario).
The thing is that scum not RBing someone on N1 could only happen basically if they wanted to hide their RBer. If they wanted to hide their RBer it would make more sense to hide it throughout the whole game.
However if they wanted to incriminate Milton a little bit or something it's possible they could have RBed him (also in case they thought he was actually a blue, and they were desperate to stop any blue actions, but didn't want to blue-snipe since they had to kill other people first (like austin) ).
So that makes it null for me, it's possible he's fake-claiming RBed (for some reason, maybe just to confuse us or something?), but it's also possible a real scum RBer RBed him.
So Risen, if you still think he's scum then I'd advise you to just read his filter and find out instead.
Pre-Edit: Oh wait, sciberbia claimed he might or might not be RBed
Sciberbia, tell us now. If you were RBed, then since there isn't a JK (he didn't jail anyone on N1) that means the scum RBer RBed you last night, meaning MIlton is confirmed scum.
Ehmm, actually...if scum RBed you last night they wouldn't have fake-claimed RBed themselves...so....
...ehm I guess it proves there is a JK after all?
Then maybe something completely weird happened, like the JK forgetting to send an action on N1(like Sentinel did in LIII >_> ).
I don't know if not telling us if you were RBed or not would help scum too much. Scum already know if they have an RBer or not, and if they have they already know if they used him or not. If they used it on you, now they know 100% that there is a JK who jailed Milton (improbable but possible). If they DON'T have a RBer then know you are basically bluffing, since there would be too many blues yet they only have 2 Goons (which in their mind would mean it's very improbable wbg would make town so overpowered but scum so underpowered and unable to counter all those blue roles).
@Dropbear: I'll assume you are austin's mason by this point since you are the only one that hasn't claimed they weren't.
If the real mason hasn't claimed yet in fear of something, know that having a confirmed town by this point has greater benefits than trying to hide a little bit more so scum don't shoot you tonight, specially if you were going to be shot tonight anyways (if the mason is S&B or sciberbia and they didn't want to claim masons).
Well.....that was long, I'll get to make those defenses against sciberbia's and Mattchew's cases, after that I'll reread Keirathi's and Milton's filters, since by the previous assumptions (Risen tells the truth, Dropbear is mason) the remaining scum is in them.
Based on these assumptions Mattchew is almost confirmed scum in my eyes, but hell I think he's scum not even using those assumptions at all.
I'm kind of wary of Risen being scum and pulling a stunt like this though, hell specially if he's scum with Milton for instance (Risen claims Cop, which makes us think "Wait, there are too many blues, shouldn't there be a scum RBer?", but then Milton claims RBed and we all say "Oh right, then there is a scum RBer, everything is fine").
Maybe it's me getting too paranoid though....and that rests on Mattchew being town, which I can't really see at the moment with his play from N1 onwards.
Actually fuck this:
##Vote: Mattchew
I already posted my thoughts on him previously here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147¤tpage=41#818
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147¤tpage=48#958
I think his intentions on FoSing me are malign. Just like in D2 he made a small "case", parked his vote on someone and does nothing else at all throughout the whole day.
It heavily reminds me of his play in MTG mafia, where he just said "kill Fulla" all throughout late-game and did nothing else at all.
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Hey everyone, I have had some personal shit come up, my brother is very sick. Going to be a bit sporadic in my posting the next day or so.
Tali's flip makes a few people look bad, gonzaw, keirathi, milton.
However, things at this point kind of hinge on whether or not Risen is telling the truth, or indeed if he is in fact sane.
Risen are you sure of your sanity?
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On July 19 2012 05:13 DropBear wrote:
Hey everyone, I have had some personal shit come up, my brother is very sick. Going to be a bit sporadic in my posting the next day or so.
Tali's flip makes a few people look bad, gonzaw, keirathi, milton.
However, things at this point kind of hinge on whether or not Risen is telling the truth, or indeed if he is in fact sane.
Risen are you sure of your sanity?
1)Cops are guaranteed to be sane
2)Are you mason?
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On July 19 2012 05:20 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 05:13 DropBear wrote:
Hey everyone, I have had some personal shit come up, my brother is very sick. Going to be a bit sporadic in my posting the next day or so.
Tali's flip makes a few people look bad, gonzaw, keirathi, milton.
However, things at this point kind of hinge on whether or not Risen is telling the truth, or indeed if he is in fact sane.
Risen are you sure of your sanity? 1)Cops are guaranteed to be sane 2)Are you mason?
1) I can't see this in the OP? Where am I supposed to be looking?
2) No.
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gonzaw wrote:
Hmm, the ONLY way I could see scum Risen fake-claiming like that, is if solstice is his scumbuddy.
That's not even the scariest situation in which Risen fake claim makes sense imo.
The scariest situation is more like Risen+Mattchew being scumteam.
Mattchew comes out today make a case against you, and Risen claims cop with some more doubt on you (his "scummy as fuck" comment, even if he later retracted it.
Lets say this is enough to get you killed, and that you are town. Then they kill off either S&B or s0lstice.
Risen then makes a case against me (don't forget, he said "If you're [gonzaw] scum Mattchew is in a rough spot, if you're town scib/Keir are pretty much dead men" earlier) and its enough to get me lynched. I flip town as well, then the other of S&B/s0lstice are NK'd.
Now we're down to 5 people alive, with 2 scum and 1 confirmed townie (the mason who hadn't claimed yet). Mattchew throws Risen under the bus, and gets Risen lynched flipping scum. Kills the mason.
Now we're down to 3 people (Mattchew, and 2 out of Milton/DropBear/sciberbia). I'm not sure Mattchew is likely to be lynched in that situation.
Okay, so that's my worst case "OMG WIFOM" situation. I know it's WIFOM. I'm just saying that it is a possibility, and one that I am scared of.
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Ok, everyone just take a step back and think about this. Keirathi is arguing pretty vehemently with Risen, a player whose cop claim a good portion of the town seems to believe. How exactly is this scummy? If Keirathi is scum he's making a play to trade himself 1-for-1 with Risen. I don't think scum needs to do that at this point, and his "lynching Risen to get confirmed townies" plan makes sense from a town perspective even though I disagree with it. Distrusting a cop claim is not a scum trait. I need to reread his filter, but I'm getting town vibes from him and I don't think I'll support a lynch effort against him.
For now I believe Risen's cop claim. He's either cop or he's been planning a cop fakeclaim for a while now. Claiming cop as scum can be really difficult and it's safer to claim as a less knowledgeable role. He's got the BOTD for now.
I'll be updating my reads on other players shortly.
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On July 18 2012 23:19 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 19:15 Risen wrote:
Sigh... I don't think gonzaw is scum and I wanted to live through the night so I was playing stupid but I guess my claim was going to force me to go all in sooner or later. I'm inclined to think you're town, as well. I really think scum team is keir/matt. Wanted to keep my suspicions of him masked until keir flipped. So what is this awesome scum read you have on me based on purely meta again?
I just think if Keir is scum you're the only logical partner.maybe gonzaw but I like him :/
Keri is trading himself 1 for 1 here btw guys. If you lynch gonzaw tonight we're still ok, but I really think Keri is scummy as hell. Look at him harping on my "misleading" people. How the hell? I never claimed a check on gonzaw, my posting clearly shows my check was on s0L. He's muddying up the waters to try and trade 1 for 1 since that's about as good as it gets for him now.
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Also, mason, if you choose to wait until Lylo to claim I hope you enjoy forcing townies into a 50/50 choice between you and the scum who counterclaims you.
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EPT
