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On July 19 2012 06:46 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 06:42 Risen wrote:On July 19 2012 06:40 DropBear wrote:On July 19 2012 06:33 Risen wrote:On July 19 2012 06:29 DropBear wrote:
I think we should lynch Risen.
Ok so two things are important. If Milton is telling the truth about the roleblocking and if they are mafia aligned AND if Risen is telling the truth and is sane.
A - Both are lying and are the remaining scum. Lynching Risen gets scum.
B - Milton tells the truth, Risen lies and is scum. Lynching Risen gets scum.
C - Both are telling the truth. Risen won't get another check at all. Mafia will either shoot or block him for the rest of the game. If Mafia decide just to block him and leave him alive, noone EVER gets confirmed. Then it makes Risen look bad and could lead to a shitstorm of mislynching later down the line. Lynching Risen now confirms strongandbig and solstice, tomorrow we lynch through one of the other remaining players.
D - Milton lies, Risen tells truth. Risen will almost definitely get shot if there is no mafia roleblocker, so we are going to lose him anyway as there are no medics and evidence so far suggests that there is no jailkeeper. He will almost definitely die. Lynching Risen confirms solstice and strongandbig, tomorrow we lynch through one of the other remaining players.
Based on the permutations, I think we should lynch Risen.
If there are holes in my logic please point them out!
##Vote Risen I like how this ignores every other player in the game rofl. Dropbear is Keir's partner? Dude there is no way of confirming either claim beyond a flip. I can see absolutely no reason why you have claimed so early, or for your breadcrumb. You were under suspicion from several people and were unlikely to be shot by mafia. Plus you say you had no scum hits so you had no real important information to give by claiming. I have no idea whether I believe you or not and this is as far as I can tell the only way, given the added complication of Milton's claim. That doesn't explain why you ignore completely all other people in this game. Your play of lynching me then shooting another townie tonight leaves enough confusion that a mislynch on a townie tomorrow is a very real possibility. Thinking about this and Matt/gonzaw are the two lynch candidates tomorrow if you lynch me here and then shoot away from those two. Gonzaw will probably then get lynched and then what?
Then there are 5 people left, with 2 confirmed townies (okay, only 1 if the other mason is either s0l or S&B), and 2 scum.
That sounds like pretty good odds for town to me with a guaranteed townie on the last day.
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solstice or strongandbig if you are a mason get the fuck in here and claim.
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lol way to read the thread bro.
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On July 19 2012 06:50 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 06:46 Risen wrote:On July 19 2012 06:42 Risen wrote:On July 19 2012 06:40 DropBear wrote:On July 19 2012 06:33 Risen wrote:On July 19 2012 06:29 DropBear wrote:
I think we should lynch Risen.
Ok so two things are important. If Milton is telling the truth about the roleblocking and if they are mafia aligned AND if Risen is telling the truth and is sane.
A - Both are lying and are the remaining scum. Lynching Risen gets scum.
B - Milton tells the truth, Risen lies and is scum. Lynching Risen gets scum.
C - Both are telling the truth. Risen won't get another check at all. Mafia will either shoot or block him for the rest of the game. If Mafia decide just to block him and leave him alive, noone EVER gets confirmed. Then it makes Risen look bad and could lead to a shitstorm of mislynching later down the line. Lynching Risen now confirms strongandbig and solstice, tomorrow we lynch through one of the other remaining players.
D - Milton lies, Risen tells truth. Risen will almost definitely get shot if there is no mafia roleblocker, so we are going to lose him anyway as there are no medics and evidence so far suggests that there is no jailkeeper. He will almost definitely die. Lynching Risen confirms solstice and strongandbig, tomorrow we lynch through one of the other remaining players.
Based on the permutations, I think we should lynch Risen.
If there are holes in my logic please point them out!
##Vote Risen I like how this ignores every other player in the game rofl. Dropbear is Keir's partner? Dude there is no way of confirming either claim beyond a flip. I can see absolutely no reason why you have claimed so early, or for your breadcrumb. You were under suspicion from several people and were unlikely to be shot by mafia. Plus you say you had no scum hits so you had no real important information to give by claiming. I have no idea whether I believe you or not and this is as far as I can tell the only way, given the added complication of Milton's claim. That doesn't explain why you ignore completely all other people in this game. Your play of lynching me then shooting another townie tonight leaves enough confusion that a mislynch on a townie tomorrow is a very real possibility. Thinking about this and Matt/gonzaw are the two lynch candidates tomorrow if you lynch me here and then shoot away from those two. Gonzaw will probably then get lynched and then what? Then there are 5 people left, with 2 confirmed townies (okay, only 1 if the other mason is either s0l or S&B), and 2 scum. That sounds like pretty good odds for town to me with a guaranteed townie on the last day.
Err disregard that, I forgot one of the nightkills.
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oops that was to derpberp where he asked if the cop was confirmed sane
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On July 19 2012 06:53 strongandbig wrote:
oops that was to derpberp where he asked if the cop was confirmed sane
Can you please link me? I can't find this point that you speak of.
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Gonzaw you have a seven page filter, mind reposting your accusations against me
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reading the new posts now. I am not the mason.
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On July 17 2012 11:04 Mattchew wrote:I just read Risen's entire filter, and couldn't find any inconsistencies or holes in logic. Even his read on me I can't really argue with. I haven't been as active as I should this game and while I don't think I have tried to fly under the radar, I could see where one may draw that conclusion. His reads are constantly evolving and changing more WAY more than when I played with him as scum, and he basically started and got Vivax lynched. While I didn't agree with the lynch + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2012 03:27 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2012 03:23 marvellosity wrote:
What do you see in Vivax that makes you think he might be town? his effort and his not giving a fuck style he didn't push it in a scummy way. Late voters of Vivax should actually be looked at more strongly. This leads me to my next scum candidate. Gonzaw. I was waiting to push this until Talis flipped because A. I wanted to see if he was scum and B. I wanted to keep the conversation on Talis. I will make my case before deadline tomorrow. I have a lot of it mapped out in my head just not written down yet and I want to keep up with the fast pace of Bureaurcracy Mafia tonight
Is this statement still true Mattchew?
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I really don't understand why the other mason isn't claiming. Is the possiblity of confusing the mafia as to whom to NK better than confusing the town when it gets to LYLO and you claim?
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On July 19 2012 07:04 Keirathi wrote:
I really don't understand why the other mason isn't claiming. Is the possiblity of confusing the mafia as to whom to NK better than confusing the town when it gets to LYLO and you claim?
Or bugs trolled us all and there is no second mason.
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I don't really see much motivation for Austin to lie about that on his way out...
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On July 19 2012 07:05 DropBear wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 07:04 Keirathi wrote:
I really don't understand why the other mason isn't claiming. Is the possiblity of confusing the mafia as to whom to NK better than confusing the town when it gets to LYLO and you claim? Or bugs trolled us all and there is no second mason.
Yea, like s0lstice said, austin said "gl to town + my mason buddy" when he died. He could be trolling too but I doubt it :p
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Dropbear, did you even try to read Risen's filter to see if his claim made sense? I don't think you did, and that's pretty scummy.
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I also really like how Mattchew is concerning himself with answering the accusations of his top scum read, instead of pushing said read right now, as the town is losing focus.
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On July 19 2012 07:04 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 11:04 Mattchew wrote:I just read Risen's entire filter, and couldn't find any inconsistencies or holes in logic. Even his read on me I can't really argue with. I haven't been as active as I should this game and while I don't think I have tried to fly under the radar, I could see where one may draw that conclusion. His reads are constantly evolving and changing more WAY more than when I played with him as scum, and he basically started and got Vivax lynched. While I didn't agree with the lynch + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2012 03:27 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2012 03:23 marvellosity wrote:
What do you see in Vivax that makes you think he might be town? his effort and his not giving a fuck style he didn't push it in a scummy way. Late voters of Vivax should actually be looked at more strongly. This leads me to my next scum candidate. Gonzaw. I was waiting to push this until Talis flipped because A. I wanted to see if he was scum and B. I wanted to keep the conversation on Talis. I will make my case before deadline tomorrow. I have a lot of it mapped out in my head just not written down yet and I want to keep up with the fast pace of Bureaurcracy Mafia tonight Is this statement still true Mattchew?
Not exactly, because of his gonzaw play which I don't fully understand, but I don't think that changes my read on him in anyway
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Ah yep found the relevant post. I assume that snb is the mason then?
It is now past 6am my time and I haven't been to bed yet so I'm out.
Risen or strongandbig could you please link me to where it says the sanity of a cop is confirmed. If it isn't confirmed anywhere my plan should be ignored.
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On July 19 2012 07:16 s0Lstice wrote:
I also really like how Mattchew is concerning himself with answering the accusations of his top scum read, instead of pushing said read right now, as the town is losing focus.
have we lost focus? I think a very high percentage of posts today are about who people think are scum and who to lynch today
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Ok one last post before bed.
On July 19 2012 07:12 s0Lstice wrote:
Dropbear, did you even try to read Risen's filter to see if his claim made sense? I don't think you did, and that's pretty scummy.
I did read his filter.
On July 17 2012 07:00 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 06:59 talismania wrote:
i should get some time to defend fuckimn onehanded and everything Sorry dude. I honestly shouldn't be voting for you since I haven't built a case on you. My town reads are voting you, though. #whatacopout
Breadcrumb is here. BEFORE talismania's flip. At this point Risen has had only ONE check, which came back as townie. At this point any possible mafia role is in play, including framer. For the life of me I can't see any reason why you would be so obvious at this point. This is also before austin's flip confirming the existence of a mason/masons.
Not only this he is under significant suspicion at this point. You yourself were pushing him quite hard. There is no reason why mafia would shoot him before his breadcrumb/claim that I can think of. I don't get the claim at all.
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@mattchew - from your standpoint, yes. risen is all over keir, s&b seems to be suspicious of risen, dropbear wants to kill risen, gonzaw wants to kill you. the only person who is firmly in your camp at this time seems to be sciberbia.
aside from all that, we've been talking about the set-up, NK stuff, the other mason etc....and you don't seem to care that we aren't talking about gonzaw
your push on gonzaw feels very, very different from your push on Talis so far.
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EPT
