EPTAnd maybe strongandbig sees it.
I Can't Believe it's not Themed MiniMafia - Page 55
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Risen
United States7927 Posts
And maybe strongandbig sees it. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 18 2012 16:46 Risen wrote: It's hilarious how scummy keirathi's posting is. (i guess I'm the only one seeing it though since you have to take my being a cop as true to see it that way) And maybe strongandbig sees it. Then fucking lynch me today so you can get past your tunnel vision that you had with Vivax and maybe make an actual good read. I'm serious, as much as I don't want us to lynch a townie today, I would rather Risen not be biased and tunneling me and not trying to find the real scum. ##Vote: Keirathi | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
@Milton there's another option - we have a town aligned JK or RB who roleblocked scum N1, and scum didn't claim it then. | ||
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Risen
United States7927 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
I also think Sciberbia is town. His case on Talismania really convinced me to lynch him. Yes it could have been a bus, but it would have been a real hardcore old-school bus, where he actually helped lead the lynch rather than just voicing suspicion or sheeping votes, and I find it unlikely that a relatively new player busses his godfather in that way. I have to reread his filter, but I still mostly think Mattchew is town; even in very active scum games from him he isn't actually helpful, he just pretends to be. That means that I think the two scum are in the list: miltonkram dropbear keirathi gonzaw These make pretty good odds. Out of these, Milton has been giving me the least amount of scum vibes; I've made cases on Dropbear and Keirathi in the past and would be fine lynching them, and I need to think about Gonzaw but I might be able to get behind a lynch on him today as well. One thing to consider though - I don't really like how Risen let people think he had a red check on Gonzaw, and then claimed just two green checks. That's the only thing currently making me hesitate, but I still feel pretty strongly that we shouldn't lynch Risen today. | ||
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Risen
United States7927 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I have a lot of different stuff to talk about. Shit this game is getting complicated. Wish we still had marv here :/ This post is about everything unrelated to scumhunting, and just my thoughts on the state of the game ---- I think it is pretty safe to assume there is no SK ---- I don't see any reason why SK would choose not to kill. So, it's pretty hard to explain why there was only 1 death both nights if there is a SK out there. Maybe if there was some jailkeeper stuff going on N1 and then both mafia and serial killer targetted austin N2. But it just seems unlikely. I'm just going to assume there is no SK until I see strong evidence to the contrary (2 dead bodies and no vig claim) ---- I may or may not have been roleblocked last night---- I was thinking about this all day yesterday. I don't want to tell you guys whether or not I was roleblocked. I think it just gives the scum information as to whether or not there is a jailkeeper. I'd rather keep them guessing with their NK's. Sorry to leave you townies in the dark like this, but for now I think this information is more helpful to scum then town. I'll maybe let you guys know at some point. ---- I think this setup has 3 total scum ---- First of all, NSH said that there would be more likely 3 scum. Secondly, we now have an outed cop claim (which I'm inclined to believe) in addition to the confirmed existance of a mason pair. On top of this, miltonkram has claimed a roleblock and I have claimed a maybe-roleblocked. I think that with all this blue stuff going on, we probably have 3 total scum to maintain game balance. 1 down - 2 to go. ---- My thoughts on Milton's claim ---- I could see many possibilities that explain Milton's claim. I don't think we will be able to deduce exactly what is going on. Perhaps things will become more clear after he next round of flips. I strongly believe that we should not lynch Milton solely because of this claim. And I don't want everybody to be forced to say something like "I did not roleblock miltonkram last night". I think we should just let him be for now. ---- Night action resolution period ---- I just want to make sure that everyone knows how this works. Between 5PM and 6PM EDT during nightphases, all actions are locked in. So, if you don't want scum to have some information to make their kill with, but you are afraid you are going to die and don't want to take your secret to the grave, you can claim it in the hour before the deadline during night phases. PM a host if you don't understand this. ---- I don't think we should lynch Risen (for now) ---- If we mislynch on townies for the next two days and Risen claims RB'd after the next two nights, I'll reconsider. To people that know Risen well, can you see this being a fakeclaim? I'm inclined to believe him, but I'm wary. ---- Thoughts on the reliability of cop checks ---- Like I said earlier, I'd be a bit surprised if there is a framer IN ADDITION to a godfather AND the possibility of millers in the setup. I also think it is rather unlikely that we have 2 godfathers. Therefore, if Risen is truly cop, I think that strongandbig and s0Lstice can be safely assumed as town (unless we see a framer flip). As soon as we lynch the next mafia, we get complete information on the cop checks. If we lynch mafia and he flips framer, we know that all "inno" checks are worthless, since the framer would most likely be framing his mafia buddy every night. If we lynch a mafia and he flips anything besides framer, we know that all cop's "inno" checks are accurate (unless there are two godfathers...) because framers cannot self-target Just to be sure, mafia framers cannot use their night ability on themselves, correct? ---- Thoughts on the mason buddy ---- Despite Keirathi's thorough research and the fact that my townread on austin was correct, I am not ausin's mason buddy. The mason buddy has not yet claimed, so either it is dropbear (who hasn't been in the thread yet) or whoever it is has chosen not to claim. I really don't see why we need them to claim unless they are about to be lynched or something, anyways. So I'm just putting this from my mind for now. If anyone is in the thread atm, I wouldn't mind some discussion on all these thoughts. I think setup-talk is helpful right now. I'll be posting more over the next few hours. | ||
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Risen
United States7927 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
As I see it, from your point of view there are two likely scenarios a) we have a jailkeeper and he protected me last night b) we don't have a jailkeeper I think that only scum really needs to know if we have a jailkeeper or not, so I don't see why I should say. If you gave me a good reason why town needs to know whether I was roleblocked or not, I'll consider telling you. But I really don't know how that information affects who we should lynch today or what your check should be tonight. | ||
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Risen
United States7927 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I really don't see what is so scummy about milton's claim. It is true that we don't know exactly how he may have gotten roleblocked, but there are certainly several possibilities that come to mind. I don't see what scum agenda his claim is pushing. Trying to flush out a jailkeeper? How would his claiming roleblocked flush out a jailkeeper? Nobody is going to claim jailkeeper just to say that they didn't protect milton. The only scum agenda I can conceivably see him pushing is if milton and risen are scum, and milton is trying to make us think that there is a mafia roleblocker so that Risen can safely claim RB'd for the next two nights. But this seems kinda unlikely. | ||
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Risen
United States7927 Posts
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Risen
United States7927 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
In response to your latest post, sorry if you already knew everything, but I'm not so sure it was clear to everyone, and I'd rather overkill it than have everyone be confused and yelling at each other. Anyway, I really wish I knew you better because I just don't know what to make of some of the things you have said recently. Hopefully you can explain. First of all, why did you make a breadcrumb "#whatacopout" that you were so unhappy with that you felt obliged to claim today? Next, why did you claim today? You could have easily pushed a lynch on gonzaw without claiming cop. I don't see why you didn't wait until at least just before the deadline tomorrow. We would get the same information, and you wouldn't be so likely to die or get roleblocked. On July 18 2012 07:07 Risen wrote: Good question........ Damn gonzaw is pretty much confirmed scum in my eyes now that he didn't die last night. Why on earth would town gonzaw have been shot last night? Based on the suspicions of myself and Mattchew, gonzaw surely seemed the most likely lynch target for today. If he is town, mafia surely would leave him alive, no? On July 17 2012 18:39 Risen wrote: Lol, I remember specifically editing the spelling to be correct when I almost posted about milton bc I saw someone call him milkton and had to make sure I was spelling right. An interesting connection. Just got home btw On July 18 2012 07:24 Risen wrote: scummy as fuck gonzaw (I'm going to hold that the misspelling of milton's name was a scumslip, also see other cases posted) ##vote gonzaw On July 18 2012 13:27 Risen wrote: Conclusion: I think remaining scum team is Keirathi/Milton or Gonzaw. I think Gonzaw's scumslip was just him seeing it spelled like that previously and then doing the same thing. I almost did it (actually I thought I had spelled his name milkton somewhere, but maybe I corrected it before posting) myself, so I don't actually think that's a scumslip, just a screwup. I don't get it: was gonzaw's 'milkton' a scumslip or not? And by the way, gonzaw was the first one to ever spell it as 'milkton'. Talis may have gotten it from gonzaw. On July 18 2012 07:24 Risen wrote: Town in my eyes me strongandbig s0Lstice dude whatever it's summer miltonkram dropbear keirathi sciberbia mattchew (completely dependent on gonzaw flip or mason claim) scummy as fuck gonzaw (I'm going to hold that the misspelling of milton's name was a scumslip, also see other cases posted) ##vote gonzaw List order is from town in my eyes to scum in my eyes. If gonzaw flips scum Mattchew becomes scummier in my eyes (unless he's the mason partner in which case confirmed town). I don't think milton is scummy b/c why would his teammates misspell his name. Dropbear and tali beign scum would mean double scum up for lynch d1 and I don't see that as likely. Scib and Keir could be swapped, I can't tell whether my dislike of Keir is b/c he doesn't like me or b/c I genuinely find him scummy. I'm a bit confused. Milton is town because talis misspelled his name, but Mattchew and I lead a lynch on the godfather and we are 2nd and 3rd most scummy? o_O Speaking of Mattchew, why would gonzaw flipping scum make Mattchew seem scummier. You think that scum Mattchew would bus the shit out of the godfather and then the next night bus the shit out of his scumbuddy gonzaw? If gonzaw flips scum, Mattchew becomes nearly-confirmed town IMO. On July 18 2012 07:24 Risen wrote: I would really like to claim so if the mason could claim right now I'd be pretty pleased. There's a good chance that with mason claim we might just be winning (regardless of gonzaw alignment) If we lynch gonzaw and he flips town, not only are we not winning, but we may be in serious trouble. For the record, I'm still inclined to believe your cop claim. I'd just like you to explain some of these posts because they are confusing me greatly. | ||
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Risen
United States7927 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 18 2012 16:48 Keirathi wrote: Then fucking lynch me today so you can get past your tunnel vision that you had with Vivax and maybe make an actual good read. I'm serious, as much as I don't want us to lynch a townie today, I would rather Risen not be biased and tunneling me and not trying to find the real scum. ##Vote: Keirathi @Keirathi What is with this attitude? If you are town, please play to win. You're saying that we should kill you so that we realize you are town and can turn our attention to finding the real scum? Gimme a break. I don't think I have to explain to you why this is anti-town logic. This is making me slightly more suspicious of you. Please play to win. Also, I am a bit surprised by the overwhelming anti-gonzaw sentiment. Did you guys think Risen had a guilty on gonzaw? As far as I know, only Mattchew and I expressed any serious suspicion of gonzaw prior to the daypost. Despite the rather odd bandwaggon on gonzaw, all signs seem to be pointing towards gonzaw being scum. I still want to reread more of D2, but gonzaw's D2 behavior seems suspicious. I'll make a post about him before I leave for work. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
His filter looks a lot like what I'd expect a blue Risen's filter to look like. He has a hard time escaping his typical town play where he accuses just about everyone, but was cautious enough to not really antagonize s&b. His guilt, in the form of all the sorrys and post-lynch Vivax obsession, makes a lot more sense now. He contributed a lot in getting a townie lynched, and was feeling guilty because he didn't want to let down the rest of town by drawing a vig shot N1 while playing a power role. I will be revisiting this later, but I agree with Mattchew that we really should be focusing on Gonzaw. I was a little hasty with my vote I feel like. I still want to hear his defense. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Mattchew especially, since he is a vet and good player overall. I would think the optimal play for scum Gonzaw would be to kill Matt and then WIFOM his way out of the increased guilt. Anyone else thought about this at all? | ||
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