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...Seriously, I feel like you are burying us with your posts Gummy. That huge poll...what? Distractions and spam = scummy, not helpful.
(dahdum is correct, and Gummy and paschl are wrong.) In this game, LAL is best. It is wrong to suggest that Town all have an incentive to lie. An honest Townie can be quite powerful. Once a Town player has lied, even with good intentions, the rest of us can no longer trust him for the remainder of the game. Hence, there is no justifiable reason for us to lie. And since we need at least one plan to stick with, we should lynch all proven liars.
Claw, I think you are overthinking things. The Mafia will not avoid hitting you because they think you are lying: they are just as likely to hit a townie by randomly hitting someone else, so their best bet is to hit you with the chance of you having been honest (since liars get lynched). A revealed DT and medic are not going to be left living after 2 nights.
The Mafia cannot and will not risk letting Tofu live any longer than that because with only 2 members they can't afford the chance he is DT and manages to finger one of them.
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Either don't lie... or don't get caught lying.
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There's virtually always a reason to lie. Some lies like "I'm Mafia, bro" never make sense. Others, like role claiming townie, or a vanilla townie claiming a special role have obvious incentive to lie. My vanilla townie claim, for example, baited Clawtrocity's claim, which more or less proves him to be mafia from my perspective. All that remains is for me to convince you guys that
1.) There are not 2 medics
2.) I am the medic and he is not the medic.
Clawtrocity has already become ambiguous with his language meaning he is backing off from his role claim, without any kind of real justification for why he faked his role claimed in the first case.
Tofu, as DeMorcef implied, put himself straight in the Mafia's cross hairs. He won't be alive more than 2 nights. So either he's bad, he's a martyr, or he's scum. As a martyr, he could be buying the real detective at least 2 nights of unchecked reveals. Legitimate reason to lie, especially since clawtrocity's role claim and subsequent waffling takes precedence in day play. More likely, however, Claw and Tofu got together and hatched a poorly thought out plan to make subsequent role claims. Scum is scum is scum.
Seeing as I've already counter-claimed medic, there is no plausible reason to kill me first day, since I'll be targeted first night anyway. I might not be targeted first night so as to cast aspersion on my credibility, but this is highly unlikely since a dead medic is strictly better than a weakly credible medic from the scum's point of view.
Since I am 99% sure that clawtrocity is scum, leaving 6 v 1 with at least one townie special role remaining are fantastic odds. This narrative should be corroborated by the results of the first cycle.
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I wish I were better at grammaring without grammar check or edit button. 
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I don't see the benefit in lynching Claw.
a) If he's medic, we've screwed ourselves.
b) If he's VT, we should have let scum waste a night on him.
c) If he's scum, his doctor claim will get him lynched later (when a doctor dies or is confirmed).
In any case, lynching him now doesn't provide us with information on anyone else.
I have a similar point of view on FirmTofu, his claim seems very difficult to fake.
Gummy, you're getting hard to follow for me. These two statements in particular, 3 minutes apart:
Claw is obviously scum. When I get killed tonight you know the other mafia is Paschl.
If we are successful in lynching Claw and we discover he was scum, the other mafia must be tofu.
If you get lynched or die, it will be difficult for us to analyze your reveal and play correctly.
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Claw is not medic. Highly doubt Tofu is detective.
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You didn't bait me into anything and implying that you did makes you seem extremely crazy. You've claimed about 6 people to be mafia so far which is more than half the game.
You end up counter claiming me acting like you planned it all along when you clearly didn't because you would have posted it after I made my post. You posted plenty of times in between my post and this counter claim post. Not to mention your post discredits me by trying to say I'm backing away from my role claim when I'm not. I'm the medic.
Whether you're the medic or not is up for discussion, but right now you're causing chaos and accusing anyone that talks. I'd also like to know in what world you counter claim someone where the list of actual roles isn't shown. This isn't a "There's only one Medic" game so you may have revealed yourself for no reason.
Like I said before, I'm almost positive you aren't mafia, but your pointing the town in the wrong direction.
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On May 02 2012 02:48 Gummy wrote:
Here is my logic:
Claw is not medic, but is banking on there being "another" medic who will waste his save on him since he has now "revealed" himself as the medic.
Tofu revealed detective contingent on Claw's being medic to save him. But this reasoning is inherently flawed since he is in the best case dead second night. Both revealed means night 1.) mafia kill medic -> 2.) mafia kill detective. This strategy is so obvious that these night kills won't even reveal any information as to the identity of the scum. Thus, we can infer that there was collusion between Claw and Tofu's role claims. Therefore, if one is scum, so is the other.
Say what?
You're passing this off as...logic? First of all, mafia won't attack Claw unless they wish to take a HUGE risk. They'd essentially be betting that there isn't a second medic out there, just to kill a claimed medic. It's a bad idea, no matter how you look at it. They'll need all the kills they can get from night to night and risking a non-kill on someone who might get healed is a bad idea.
Your conclusion of my death by night two does not follow from your premises. Therefore, your argument is logically flawed. Yes, it is a possibility I may die on night 2, but there was a possibility of me dying on night 2 even if I didn't claim detective. I think my roleclaim is forcing the mafia's hand as we speak.
Let's assume mafia takes the enormous risk. EVEN IF Clawtrocity dies night 1, a jailkeeper is always out there to protect me.
Furthermore, the fact that you want to kill me after I claim detective is extremely scummy. Do you really think Claw and I somehow planned all this out, the roleclaim and everything, as a mafia team? It would be a very foolish long-term strategy for mafia, because if either one died for ANY reason, the other would be incriminated immediately. I am not so short-sighted.
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There is less than a 50% probability conditioned on the history of past games of there being EITHER a jailkeeper another medic or both. Therefore this isn't a risk at all for the mafia.
Secondly, you're basically using a "It would be too obvious if I were Mafia, therefore I'm not Mafia" argument which isn't going to fly. The wine is in front of you, not in front of me, scum.
I have to study for finals now, so I'll see you guys next cycle. That said my vote is in and I've cast my save via PM already in case I don't get lynched this day cycle.
Recommend voting clawtrocity and tofu immediately.
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On May 02 2012 13:29 Gummy wrote:
There is less than a 50% probability conditioned on the history of past games of there being EITHER a jailkeeper another medic or both. Therefore this isn't a risk at all for the mafia.
Secondly, you're basically using a "It would be too obvious if I were Mafia, therefore I'm not Mafia" argument which isn't going to fly. The wine is in front of you, not in front of me, scum.
I have to study for finals now, so I'll see you guys next cycle. That said my vote is in and I've cast my save via PM already in case I don't get lynched this day cycle.
Recommend voting clawtrocity and tofu immediately.
I'm sorry I haven't played many games on this site, so I don't have preconceived notions as to how games are balanced. While you may very well be right about there either being a jailkeeper OR a medic, you aren't exactly explaining your position very well.
I claimed detective because I see it as the best way for me to stay alive. I explained why in my second post. If you see any problems with that logic, feel free to poke holes in it and I'll be glad to answer. These ad hominem arguments aren't getting us anywhere other than, "You're scum because it's scummy to claim on day 1!" Please provide some reasoning to back up your accusations.
To be clear, I do believe you are town. I just would like you to see where I'm coming from.
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I just found something rather interesting I would like to share with you all.
Posted right after my role claim:
On May 01 2012 20:16 Gummy wrote:
We still haven't heard anything from AcesRequiem.
Just fyi, in case you vote me off, I currently suspect Clawtrocity and Paschl.
I am almost certain that
ange777
demorcef
dahdum
firmtofu
are good guys.
I believe Matriarch and AcesRequiem, so far, to be entirely useless.
>Claims he is almost certain I am a good guy.
On May 02 2012 02:42 Gummy wrote:
Claw is obviously scum. When I get killed tonight you know the other mafia is Paschl.
>Claims Claw is scum to a very high degree of certainty. Absolutely no reasoning to back up his accusations.
>Poses the conditional that if he dies, Claw and Paschl are mafia. No explanation given.
On May 02 2012 02:45 Gummy wrote:
If we are successful in lynching Claw and we discover he was scum, the other mafia must be tofu.
IMMEDIATELY AFTER:
>Poses a contradictory statement to the one he JUST posted that implies that in the event Claw flips mafia, I am mafia. Again, no explanation.
On May 02 2012 02:48 Gummy wrote:
Here is my logic:
Claw is not medic, but is banking on there being "another" medic who will waste his save on him since he has now "revealed" himself as the medic.
Tofu revealed detective contingent on Claw's being medic to save him. But this reasoning is inherently flawed since he is in the best case dead second night. Both revealed means night 1.) mafia kill medic -> 2.) mafia kill detective. This strategy is so obvious that these night kills won't even reveal any information as to the identity of the scum. Thus, we can infer that there was collusion between Claw and Tofu's role claims. Therefore, if one is scum, so is the other.
>Finally attempts to explain his cryptic accusations. Is now dead-set on me and Claw being mafia. Note that this is a complete reversal from his previous conclusion that Claw and Paschl are mafia. Flip-flopper? I'd say so.
I did not post a single time between these posts made by Gummy. However, Gummy completely changed his stance on his views on me from 100% confirmed town to 100% confirmed mafia. He makes no real case for why he did this other than posing hypothetical scenarios and saying they will occur with a 100% degree of certainty.
Conclusion: Gummy should not be taken seriously. He knows absolutely nothing of value and is contributing nothing to our discussion. I am completely dumbfounded by his train of thought because it doesn't make sense for ANY alignment to act the way he is right now. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and conclude he is merely inexperienced before I jump to any conclusions about his role. I'll look into it more later.
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That's about the best I'll get out of Gummy then. I was merely telling him he wasn't mafia to trick him into getting defensive. In a nutshell if I called him out as being mafia he'd say I was stupid and move on, but because I told him that he wasn't mafia he inadvertently got defensive and used a defensive mechanic called projection.
If you notice in his post he claims this:
Clawtrocity has already become ambiguous with his language meaning he is backing off from his role claim, without any kind of real justification for why he faked his role claimed in the first case.
As a martyr, he could be buying the real detective at least 2 nights of unchecked reveals. Legitimate reason to lie,
How is it ok for Tofu to do it, but not okay for me to lie about my role?
I believe he's projecting himself onto me which is why he claimed Medic. He's trying to say that I'm the one that's sneaky and lying, even though he did the exact same thing. If you look hard enough you'll see projections with everything he says.
He admits that lying is ok, but condemns me for lying even though he lied as well.
So if we take into account his love to project himself onto everyone else then we can also take into account the fact that he is accusing everyone of being scum. That in combination with his slightly defensive attitude and role claim after I said he wasn't scum makes me think he's scum.
At worst he's a citizen who's skill has gone way to much to his head
At best he's a scum who'll lie and bullshit his way around until eventually getting lynched while his teammate sits in the back and does almost nothing.
##Vote Gummy
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If there can't be 2 medics, at least one of you is lying.
I am somehow torn between Claw and Gummy.
Claw
I actually agree with DeMorcerfs LAL, so what struck me was this:
On May 02 2012 15:02 Clawtrocity wrote:
How is it ok for Tofu to do it, but not okay for me to lie about my role?
Why are you already implying that (both of) you are lying? As of now, no one can prove the claims. Although you stated you don't like this specific tactic of early roleclaiming, why wouldn't you insist on being the medic and defend your role against other accusations? Is it because you know you are lying and the medic has to be someone else? You might confuse mafia with this move but you could be mafia youself confusing all of us townies.
Gummy
I don't like your aggressive way of playing, doubting every player based on very little and somehow changing your mind every minute. But your timing to claim medic and to suspect Claw got me thinking. Gummy immediately called Claw scum when Claw roleclaimed. There may not have been any good arguments why Claw should be scum at that time but if Gummy was sure about Claw lying that would be more than enough to doubt him.
On May 01 2012 20:04 Gummy wrote:
The way I see it, clawtrocity is:
1.) Useless
2.) A townie who is trying to take the bullet for the real medic. I have no reason to believe there would be two medics.
3.) Scum who is trying to cast away suspicion from himself.
Only after rereading the filter I saw that Gummy already sliped a medic claim. Either it was a simple mistake him being the medic or a really well did move being scum to cast suspicion on Claw.
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I woke up early on final exam day so I guess I have a few minutes to post.
1.) Why am I so aggressive to the point of nonsensicality?
I want to place pressure on players. Inexperience implies high vulnerability to pressure. Since I know I'm not scum I have nothing to hide by running around randomly placing pressure on every player who gives me reason to doubt their cool headedness. Contradictory roleclaim by clawtrocity and subsequent suicidal roleclaim by tofu were typical actions I was hoping to see from such pressure.
2.) Why did I not reveal my medic role immediately after Claw's reveal?
I did if you were watching carefully. I wanted to do it in a measured fashion until I saw Claw's reaction immediately after my casting a vote for him. Once I was reasonably confident I made a very obvious counter claim.
3.) Why am I suddenly more interested in Tofu than in Paschl?
A bit of a.) delayed reasoning based on my focus on Claw's text that didn't make it obvious to me until about the time I placed my vote for Claw that Tofu's role claim was either conditioned entirely on the probability of their being more than one protective townie role or his being suicidal/scum. b.) his subsequent "defense" when I began to pressure him became exquisitely suspicious. In particular, his rebuttal of my accusation:
On May 02 2012 13:14 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 02 2012 02:48 Gummy wrote:
Here is my logic:
Claw is not medic, but is banking on there being "another" medic who will waste his save on him since he has now "revealed" himself as the medic.
Tofu revealed detective contingent on Claw's being medic to save him. But this reasoning is inherently flawed since he is in the best case dead second night. Both revealed means night 1.) mafia kill medic -> 2.) mafia kill detective. This strategy is so obvious that these night kills won't even reveal any information as to the identity of the scum. Thus, we can infer that there was collusion between Claw and Tofu's role claims. Therefore, if one is scum, so is the other. Say what? You're passing this off as...logic? First of all, mafia won't attack Claw unless they wish to take a HUGE risk. They'd essentially be betting that there isn't a second medic out there, just to kill a claimed medic. It's a bad idea, no matter how you look at it. They'll need all the kills they can get from night to night and risking a non-kill on someone who might get healed is a bad idea. Your conclusion of my death by night two does not follow from your premises. Therefore, your argument is logically flawed. Yes, it is a possibility I may die on night 2, but there was a possibility of me dying on night 2 even if I didn't claim detective. I think my roleclaim is forcing the mafia's hand as we speak. Let's assume mafia takes the enormous risk. EVEN IF Clawtrocity dies night 1, a jailkeeper is always out there to protect me. Furthermore, the fact that you want to kill me after I claim detective is extremely scummy. Do you really think Claw and I somehow planned all this out, the roleclaim and everything, as a mafia team? It would be a very foolish long-term strategy for mafia, because if either one died for ANY reason, the other would be incriminated immediately. I am not so short-sighted.
The bolded section, from the Mafia's perspective is not even a risk worth considering. His entire rebuttal rests, then, on an assumption by the Mafia that there is a >50% chance of there being another protective role in the town and that protective role is somehow willing to waste a vote protecting two suicidal roleclaims instead of a very likely useful and cool-headed townie like Demorcef.
The question in the thread
On May 01 2012 10:38 FirmTofu wrote:
Hi! I'm very excited to start playing this game. The last TL Mafia game I played, I got lynched pretty early because day ended earlier than I expected and I hadn't said much, but this time I can assure you that I will be a lot more active.
So far, I feel like I can trust Clawtrocity and Gummy. Paschl seems a bit...meh, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Matriarch could be anything, it's hard to say. Ange777 is either scum or is very inexperienced. I've got my eye on her in particular.
I want to attempt to do something, but first I need a question answered.
Are doctors notified int he event that their heal ends up healing their target?
Is the healed person notified that they they have been attacked and healed?
Was already explicitly answered in the pre-game chatter. I found his re-asking that same question particularly suspicious and the answer he received to that question entirely inconsistent with his legitimately being a detective. While no mention is made of the actual result of the medic's action, for example, that somebody's being alive and nobody else being dead means either
1.) My save was effective
2.) Townies have more than one protective role.
3.) Mafia be trollin'.
So then, after going through a few practice exams, I came back and thought about why that question would need to be answered, and most obvious reason I could see for it was to open up a medic roleclaim by somebody with whom he had previously been in communication. Since only mafia are allowed to privately communicate and since I was, by this time, convinced by Claw's scumminess, my attention turned entirely to Claw.
This following exerpt:
I claimed detective because I see it as the best way for me to stay alive. I explained why in my second post. If you see any problems with that logic, feel free to poke holes in it and I'll be glad to answer. These ad hominem arguments aren't getting us anywhere other than, "You're scum because it's scummy to claim on day 1!" Please provide some reasoning to back up your accusations.
in particular became damning in my eyes. "I claimed detective because I see it as the best way for me to stay alive." It's not that I don't buy that logic, but rather I don't buy that anybody would be legitimately foolish enough to believe that logic. Turning to his second post, reproduced here:
On May 01 2012 18:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Clawtrocity, I am going to assume your Medic claim is true and ask you to heal me.
This is a win-win situation for us and I'll tell you why.
1) If Clawtrocity is mafia, he will not want me dead because my death would imply he is not the medic. He is half of his team. My life for his is a great trade for town.
2) If Clawtrocity is medic, he will heal me and I am completely safe from death. Mafia will be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw is telling the truth.
3) If Clawtrocity is vanilla townie, mafia will still be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw to be the medic.
HOWEVER, there is one potential hole in my plan. Claw could be vanilla townie, and I may die tonight. If this occurs we will be in a very bad position going forward. I am confident that mafia will not make such a bold move because the chances of success are minimal.
Let's look at this reasoning based on maximizing expectation of surviving. Presume, for the sake of argument, that he is the detective, he believes Claw's claim, and he is genuinely trying to stay alive. What is his probability of being targeted after Claw's reveal on the first night? The obvious answer is that it's the same probability he enjoyed of being lynched had he not revealed Detective himself. He, in no way, increases the probability of survival of himself or the medic on the first night since the medic cannot heal himself. What about night 2?
Presuming 2 lynches and 1 mafia kill (on the presumedly legitimate medic), there are 6 townies left in the second night. He is sure to die.
What if he had not revealed himself? Then his probability of surviving to make a second ID is at least 5/6. Giving him a 5/6 probability on day 3 of having 2 reveals ready to go on the remaining 5 players. If the town believes him, the town wins, since the majority of the town has been identified.
Now there is nothing complex or subtle about this line of reasoning and I am not convinced that Tofu would have been oblivious to this prior to his claim of such a vulnerable and valuable role...
Until we take the counterfactual where he is not detective and knows that he will not be targeted either of these two nights. Well then, his hope would be that he could bullshit his way through day play. Then be in the same situation on day 3 with 2 bullshit reveals. Now, his only task remains to stay consistent with his flawed logic. If the town believes him, Mafia immediately win.
Now I reiterate... there is no WIFOM going on in this reasoning here and no circularity is implied. I am merely laying out optimal strategies for Tofu given two possible states of the world. In one state of the world (where he is actually detective), his strategy is suicidal. In another state of the world (where is not detective), his strategy makes only makes sense insofar as his opponents are not clever enough to pick out the aforementioned sub-optimality.
And as far as text-based Mafia goes without knowing people's prior personalities and/or tells, suboptimality of strategy is all you can really use to incriminate somebody.
The next question is "Gummy, why are you so noble as to place yourself in the crosshairs?"
Well this is easy to understand based on the prior train of reasoning. I am sufficiently confident in Claw being scum, that my being killed off tonight will leave the town in a 6 v. 1 situation. Simplification in such games always works in the majority's favor.
Also, I'm just a really good guy. <- not actual reasoning
So TL;DR: Claw is definitely scum. When I'm dead after the first night, presume Tofu as the subsequent prime suspect.
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On May 02 2012 15:02 Clawtrocity wrote:That's about the best I'll get out of Gummy then. I was merely telling him he wasn't mafia to trick him into getting defensive. In a nutshell if I called him out as being mafia he'd say I was stupid and move on, but because I told him that he wasn't mafia he inadvertently got defensive and used a defensive mechanic called projection. If you notice in his post he claims this: Show nested quote +Clawtrocity has already become ambiguous with his language meaning he is backing off from his role claim, without any kind of real justification for why he faked his role claimed in the first case. Show nested quote +As a martyr, he could be buying the real detective at least 2 nights of unchecked reveals. Legitimate reason to lie, How is it ok for Tofu to do it, but not okay for me to lie about my role? I believe he's projecting himself onto me which is why he claimed Medic. He's trying to say that I'm the one that's sneaky and lying, even though he did the exact same thing. If you look hard enough you'll see projections with everything he says. He admits that lying is ok, but condemns me for lying even though he lied as well. So if we take into account his love to project himself onto everyone else then we can also take into account the fact that he is accusing everyone of being scum. That in combination with his slightly defensive attitude and role claim after I said he wasn't scum makes me think he's scum. At worst he's a citizen who's skill has gone way to much to his head At best he's a scum who'll lie and bullshit his way around until eventually getting lynched while his teammate sits in the back and does almost nothing. ##Vote Gummy
There is nothing categorically wrong in this game with lying.
What matters instead, is whether or not you can deduce lying as an optimal strategy given a set of beliefs or objectives. Claiming to be a medic when you're not a medic is only optimal insofar as to be a martyr. However this is only conditional on a belief that there is a high probability in there being a real medic, which using the history Ange777 posted as a Bayesian prior, is only 50%. So we are expected to believe that Claw would be willing to suicide himself with 100% probability on night 1 for the sake of protecting a role that has only a 50% chance of existing, and would only have a 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 (depending on how day play goes) of being targeted anyway.
That is not consistent with the victory conditions of the townspeople. There should really be no doubt in anybody's mind that Claw is scum...
On the other hand, claiming to be a vanilla in case of an actual role, as I did, is consistent with my aforementioned strategy of placing pressure on people to role claim. Cool headed, townie-faction should optimally claim either Vanilla Townie or just flatly refuse to role claim as a number of players correctly did. So conditioned on the fact that I needed to make the "ROLE CLAIM NAO!" act convincing and I needed to make a role claim of some sort, I was much safer claiming Vanilla than an actual role, since it is a dominant strategy in expectations, conditional on role claiming and the given roles where you can't save yourself (especially with a potential roleblocker), to claim vanilla. I've already worked through the cases as to why this is so for the roles of detective and medic (see this post for medic and previous post for detective). The logic for jailkeeper and vigilante are basically the same.
Thus my lie is consistent with my being in the townie faction. Claw's lie was not.
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Also. Paschl is legit. I never had a real reason doubt him and I was just placing generic pressure on him after he seemed a little too eager to make friendlyz in his first few posts.
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@Observers: How am I doing? :D
Poll: How Pro is Gummy?Crazy pretentious douchebag. (10) 56% Obvious scum is obvious. (4) 22% Greatest natural to ever play TLM. (3) 17% Kinda schizo. (1) 6% 18 total votes Your vote: How Pro is Gummy? (Vote): Obvious scum is obvious.
(Vote): Crazy pretentious douchebag.
(Vote): Kinda schizo.
(Vote): Greatest natural to ever play TLM.
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Dang, I wonder who voted for (Obvious scum is obvious.)
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Wait.... what if my initial banter with Paschl was planned out so we didn't appear to be a pair of mafioso, and then Claw and Tofu just happened to make poorly thought-out plays and Paschl and I are just secretly laughing between ourselves on a secret IRC channel somewhere, secretly?
Since this is a newbie game, it's kind of hard to tell between innocuous shitty play, as from myself, and genuinely scummy play, as from Claw. Maybe it's like Garena HoN where
♬ Anything is possible! ♬
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EPT
