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United States5684 Posts
Mementoss is helping me co-host this game. Any questions can be directed towards him/her or myself.
The coaches for this game are: Jitsu, Meapak_Ziphh and DoYouHas . Please consult them if you want advice on playing the game.
If you wish to coach for this game, please send me a PM and/or leave a message in this thread.
Game name + Show Spoiler [Important Posts] +
Introduction: Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions. The objective of the game is to lynch or kill all mafia members before they outnumber the rest of the town. It's much like a game of poker because mafia members are also part of the town during the day and may manipulate the vote to their liking. If the mafia at any time outnumber or equal the townspeople, they win. The town's goal is to lynch all the members of the mafia.
The game is typically very active, so the thread will get big quickly. However, it is essential to read the thread to play the game. If you do not have the time or patience to read the whole thread, do not play. I will not compensate for ignorance.
Rules: Cheating: Cheating includes (but is not limited to): 1. Posting after death. You may have one polite goodbye post, but it may not contain any potentially game-changing information. 2. Ruining the game by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town. 3. Logging on to someone else's account to get their role or looking over someone's shoulder to get their role. 4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles. 5. Posting screenshots of your inbox. 6. Posting or sharing any PM you receive from a host. 7. Getting yourself modkilled to help your team. Your non-majority-decided death may not be used as a bargaining chip. 8. Signing up more than once using smurf accounts. 9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits. 10. Sharing accounts with other players unless cleared by the host in advance. Otherwise, only you may post on your account. 11. Breadcrumbing the specific phrasing of your role PM. Do not compare the phrasing in your role PM to prove your alignment. You can claim the abilities you have, but you can't use the specific phrasing of your role PM. 12. Posting a false role PM phrased as if you received it from the host. You can still fake roleclaim, but you cannot make it look like you are posting a PM you received from the host. Cheating is not tolerated here. The punishment will be severe.
Posting: Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Activity: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Smurfs: Smurfs are not allowed in this game. This is a newbie game.
Spam: Spam is not tolerated, nor is any off-topic material. Do not discuss Proleague here. Do not talk about Starcraft II here. Play Mafia here.
Editing: Editing is not allowed for any reason. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be modkilled. This is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything.
Inappropriate posts: If you want to post something insulting or inappropriate and know the TL mods would have a problem with it elsewhere, don't post it here. If you do, a host will warn you or modkill you and request that you be banned from future games. The hosts have the final say on what is inappropriate. If you do not like how someone is talking to you, please PM a host, Flamewheel, or Mig before involving the TL staff. If you are unsatisfied with how the situation is resolved, then you can appeal to the TL staff normally.
Reporting posts: The report button is a nice feature for regular TL, but not for this forum. We prefer to deal with things in house if possible to avoid confusion among the TL staff. If you have a problem with how someone is posting, talk to the host, co-host, Flamewheel, or Mig before using your report button. Please do not use your report button for anything other than inappropriate posts which you feel are not being dealt with adequately.
Ban discussions: Please wait until this game is over to talk about modkills and bans resulting from this game.
Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. However, this does not mean that you should try to win by being a jerk to the other players so they all want to quit playing.
This also means that you cannot leave the game without a good reason without a ban. These situations will be dealt with on a case by case basis. PM your host if you need to leave the game.
You have been warned.
Out of thread communication: It is common for mafia (and town circles if PMs are allowed) to use a medium outside of TL such as QuickTopics or IRC to communicate during the game. Please be mindful that other players may be more tech savvy than you and they may attempt impersonate members of your team or attempt to infiltrate your chat. You use these media at your own risk.
Voting rules: 1. Voting is done in this thread. Please keep votes here, and only vote here. Do not PM me your vote. 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote: Artanis[Xp]. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I will update vote counts whenever I get the chance. 3. No conditional voting. 4. You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. 5. This game uses Extended Majority Lynch. That is, at the deadline the player with a majority of votes is lynched (majority = 1/2 the remaining players, rounded down + 1), if no one has a majority then no lynch will take place. 6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain. You MAY vote for a no lynch by posting ##Vote: No Lynch
Signups: This game is open newbies only, that is, you must have played three or fewer game on TL.
Replacements This game uses (does not use) replacements. Replacements will be made in the game until time in the game. If a player is modkilled during the designated time, then they will be replaced by a player on the replacement list.
Clues: There are no clues.
PMs PMs are not allowed in this game.
Time Cycle: This game will follow a (24 hour night/48 hour) day cycle. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. The deadline time is 00:00 GMT (+00:00), Actions/votes will be accepted up to and including the posted time, but not after.
Credits: Thanks to anyone who has ever hosted a game. This list grows ever longer. Thanks to everyone who helped balance this game.
If you have not read all the rules, go back and do so. I will not compensate for ignorance!
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United States5684 Posts
Roles and Setup information
This is a semi-open setup, that is, exact role counts will not be known, but the possible roles will be known. All roles presented here are not necessarily in the game, but no roles not included here are present.
Town Roles Town Wincondition- The town wins when there are no mafia left in the game
Vanilla Townie - You are just an ordinary citizen of the town of Liquidia, you are terrified of the mafia, and must strive to weed them out before the exterminate you and your fellow citizens. Every day you may vote for who you want to see lynched. Your wits and your votes will carry the town to glorious victory or shameful defeat.
Detective - You are a incredible sleuth, using your keen powers of deduction and the awesome astral charts from the seer's academy, you have the ability to inspect a player every night. You will find out if they are Town or Mafia. You are guaranteed to be sane, but beware of millers, framers and the godfather.
Medic - You are a recent medical school graduate, still struggling to pay the bills. Fortunately you have found employment here in Liquidia. Every night, you may choose to visit a player for a check up, if they would be hit that night, you manage to save them from the first kill aimed at them. Neither you nor your target will be notified of a successful protection.
Jailkeeper - Equipped with chloroform and rope, you steal into the night to kidnap a random person and lock them in your basement “for safety”. Once per night, you may target a player to protect from 1kp and roleblock. You win with the town.
Vigilante - You are an armed and dangerous fellow! You have secured a gun and are going to use it to take justice into your own hands. During any night of the game you may choose to fire at a player, this works exactly like a mafia hit. If your shot stacks with a mafia kill or another vigilante, it will not be refunded, if you are roleblocked, you will not lose your shot, even if you intended to fire that night.
Mafia Roles Mafia Win condition- The mafia wins when they equal or outnumber the remaining townies or nothing can keep that from happening.
Mafia Powers - (all mafia have these, unless specifically stated otherwise) All mafia may vote, as ordinary citizens of liquidia. All mafia may communicate with each other outside the thread, by any means they wish, and know who the other mafia are. As a group, the mafia team have kp equal one, each night, which they may use however they want.
Mafia Goon- One of the newest recruits to the mafia, you are here to visit vengeance on the town. You have no special powers outside the regular mafia powers. Now destroy these fledgling fools, make them see the power of the mafia!
Mafia Roleblocker - An expert in the use of the terrible drug Nocando, in addition to the usual mafia powers, you can choose to visit a player each night and drug them, keeping them from performing any night actions. Regardless of their role, they will be notified that they were knocked out in the morning.
Mafia Framer - An ex-detective, you know exactly what those schmucks look for when investigating people. In addition to the normal mafia powers, you may choose to frame a player each night, making them return the opposite of what they should to detectives, that is a framed mafia goon returns Town and a framed Vanilla Townie returns Mafia
Mafia Godfather - The regional leader of the mafia, you know exactly what it takes to look innocent. In addition to the normal mafia powers, you return Town to any detective that investigates you.
Mafia Rolecop - An astrologist and soothslayer turned to crime, in addition to the usual mafia powers, you may investigate a player each night and find out their role.
Additionally, the mafia will receive copies of the Vanilla Townie PM and of each blue role, in order to prevent things like PM based closed ciphers.
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United States5684 Posts
Remember, three or fewer games played to sign up!
Player List
1.) dahdum 2.) Gummy 3.) AcesRequiem 4.) Matriarch 5.) DeMorcerf 6.) FirmTofu 7.) Clawtrocity 8.) paschl 9.) Ange777
Filter
1.) 2.) 3.) 4.) 5.) 6.) 7.) 8.) 9.)
Replacements
2/2 Mafia Remaining ?/? Goon(s) ?/? Roleblocker(s) ?/? Framer(s) ?/? Godfather(s) ?/? Role cop(s) Mafia KP currently equals 1
7/7 Town ??/?? Vanilla Townie(s) ??/?? Detective(s) ??/?? Medic(s) ??/?? Jailkeeper(s) ??/?? Vigilante(s)
As usual, PM me for the observer QT, or if you wish to be listed as an official coach
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United States5684 Posts
Newbie specific stuff
1.) Its already in the rules, but remember, no editing. I'd rather not modkill for this 2.) Behave as gentlemen (or ladies), things get heated here, but personal attacks are unacceptable, I *will* hold you to the same standards I would anywhere else on teamliquid. 3.) If there is an issue, or you don't understand something, or you think your brilliant plan may be against the spirit of the rules, PM me or MidnightGladius. There is no shame in asking. 4.) Don't talk about the game outside the game. Sometimes it can be tempting to discuss it in IRC with a friend, or someone who isn't playing, unless its a private conversation with someone you KNOW isn't in the game, its not a good idea. Getting advice from more experienced players is fine though, just let me know who you are going to for coaching. 5.) Make sure to have read the rules, ignorance is no excuse. 6.) This is a game, have fun, and don't carry grudges. 7.) Have fun, seriously.
Useful Guides
Coaches
Jitsu, Meapak_Ziphh and DoYouHas have agreed to coach this game, bug them with any questions about how to play that you may have. Remember that coaches will not play *for* you, but they are useful to talk to.
They are a great resource, so make sure you ask them any questions you may have, however stupid it seems at the time.
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good luck with the hosting mattchew ^^
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United States5684 Posts
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I will be willing to act as a town coach. I'll try and keep up with the thread so my input will have relevance.
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/in
Played a few live but never online.
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Holy crap, have there been 11 newbie games by now!!?
Seems like yesterday when there were only 2...
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Oh crap no editing, I have never successfully played before. I am extremely bad and it may take a while for me to figure out what's going on. I'm pretty good at in-person mafia, but the whole online post-based format is confusing.
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Sorry for the double post.
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Shit quadruple post including the last one and this one.
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You can edit posts before the game starts :-P
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Gummy is already fitting in nicely
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/in First game
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/in First game of mafia online. Played some werewolf games IRL, and I liked them quite a bit ^^
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Will our roles be assigned via rng or will they be assigned at the discretion of the host? Does preface chatter have any bearing on the game?
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On April 28 2012 20:01 Gummy wrote: Will our roles br assigned via rng or will they br assigned at the discretion of the host? Does preface chatter have any bearing on the game?
Roles are RNG.
Preface chatter is only fun
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I should have a fair bit of free time during this game so feel free to pm for coaching. Coaching is good even if you don't have many questions about the game. Most of the value of being coached comes from having someone in your corner who wants you to succeed that you can bounce ideas and posts off of. It definitely made my first game more enjoyable. My experience is mainly from the town side of things, but I am up for coaching whatever role.
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I would also be glad to help out a new player, preferably scum, if they wanted it
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On April 29 2012 07:45 Matriarch wrote: /in *cheer*
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i think its cool that people make accounts to play this game
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how many players do you usually get for these? if its small-ish im in. i have played mafia on a different forum before.
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When do you guys plan on starting, because I will be offline for the rest of the day and night ~20hrs. After that I will try to be as active as possible
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
THis is a 9-player setup, and the game will begin once there are enough players signed up(still 2 or 3 more needed). Likely in the next 2 or 3 days.
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alright /in
im used to shorter days but im looking forward to see how this works out.
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I have a nagging suspicion that all these <5 post dudes are smurfs. In lieu of an ip check, could we make a minimum post count 50 or 1 week membership? Basically enough posts so that people won't be willing to spam just for a noob stomp, but low enough that legitimately new players can get there in a few days.
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Honestly, I don't think they would be smurfs. More likely they are people who have lurked the forums and decided to make an account to join our community. I don't think we've had a smurf in a Newbie game since Palmar in Student Mafia, and that was intentional on the hosts part.
I cant speak for everyone here, but I think most of our established players are more interested in getting each other killed, rather than shitting up a new player game.
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Actually, FourFace smurfed in my last newbie game xD but it was still technically a newbie game as he hadnt played 4 yet Also, i dont like that idea, as people like me (who made an acct to play this) would have to spam other sections of TL
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Yeah, I was aware of what FourFace did, but he still qualified as a newbie, so the integrity of the game wasn't lost.
Mattchew is pretty sharp. If he gets a hint of someone smurfing without authorization, he'll take care of it.
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Im no smurf
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United States5684 Posts
Game is full and will be starting tomorrow night, a little over 31 hours from now
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Matriarch is my wife people, but don't go easy on her.
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United States5684 Posts
On April 30 2012 00:51 VisceraEyes wrote: Matriarch is my wife people, but don't go easy on her. this seems like a trap
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On April 30 2012 00:51 VisceraEyes wrote: Matriarch is my wife people, but don't go easy on her.
Hopefully she doesn't get a blue role she will auto claim day 1 if anyone votes her
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Thanks for letting me join I am definitely excited! And yes, this account is brandnew. Being a long time reader I didn't see the need to get an account until now.
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I can assure you that I'm not a smurf. I've played FM before plenty, but from reading some of the previous games I realized that I should join a noobie game or two to get the hang of the specfic rules for this forum and to get use to the new player base.
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can i ask questions about setup in here? or should we stop talking until the game starts?
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Great, game on! I'm not a smurf, had my account since 2010 but only lurked.
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It is actually better to ask setup questions before the game starts. Otherwise people will sometimes think you have ulterior motives for asking.
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Ok, than I have some questions as well. What exactly would be the miller? Just a townie without any extra abilites?
The rules state that we may not PM. So I can't discuss with other players via PM but must use this thread? Even if I am Mafia, I may not talk to the other Mafias exept for in this thread?
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Miller does not know they are the miller. They believe they are just a regular vanilla townie. The only difference is they return mafia if a detective checks them.
Any town role must only discuss the game in the thread. Mafia usually use a secret quicktopic thread and PMs to talk to each other, which they are allowed to do. The obvious exceptions are PMing hosts or a coach (shameless plug).
Forgive me if I'm stepping on your toes Matt/Memen, I was just bored and between episodes of Awake.
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(^I will miss Awake when it goes off-air.) Sorry to do this, but: Millers - they are listed on the "remaining list" but not on the "Roles and Setup Info"; so are there potentially millers in this game? Vigilante has only 1 bullet? Hypothetically, if the Framer frames the Godfather, does he return 'Mafia'? When a mafia dies, will we be told specifically if they were goon, framer, rolecop, etc? Jailer protects from "1kp and roleblock" : so if the jailed player is targeted by multiple kps they would die? If they are "protected from roleblock" does that imply that their action still occurs, or is being jailed the same as being roleblocked? Does jailing also prevent investigation by detective or rolecop; does it also prevent being framed? What happens if Jailkeeper and Mafia Drug-Roleblocker act on each other? Drugged players are informed; are jailed players informed?
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May I please be on the replacement list for this game? I have never played before and am interested in the learning the game.
-GambitX32
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On April 30 2012 12:44 DeMorcerf wrote: (^I will miss Awake when it goes off-air.) Sorry to do this, but: Millers - they are listed on the "remaining list" but not on the "Roles and Setup Info"; so are there potentially millers in this game? Vigilante has only 1 bullet? Hypothetically, if the Framer frames the Godfather, does he return 'Mafia'? When a mafia dies, will we be told specifically if they were goon, framer, rolecop, etc? Jailer protects from "1kp and roleblock" : so if the jailed player is targeted by multiple kps they would die? If they are "protected from roleblock" does that imply that their action still occurs, or is being jailed the same as being roleblocked? Does jailing also prevent investigation by detective or rolecop; does it also prevent being framed? What happens if Jailkeeper and Mafia Drug-Roleblocker act on each other? Drugged players are informed; are jailed players informed? Why would the framere frame the Godfather?
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United States5684 Posts
@DeMorcerf Millers are not in this game. Vig(s) have 1 bullet Framer framing a GF would return him as mafia Roles and Alignment will be revealed upon death 2kp kill a jailkept person Jailing someone makes roleblocks that person, double role-blocking still roleblocks them Jailing does not prevent investigation or framing Jailing and Roleblocking will take place in the order they are sent in Jailed players are not informed they are jailed, while mafia roleblocked, will.
@GambitX32 you will go on the replacement list when I get around to updating the OP with one tomorrow
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@Mattchew Thank you, sir. I find it amusing to imagine someone being chloroformed and tied up and have no idea it happened when they wake.
@Gummy Because he can, the framer is a crazy person, and it defies natural logic which television tells us is the best way to confuse and defeat a superior logical opponent.
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United States5684 Posts
role PM's will go out around 23:00 GMT (+00:00) and the game will begin at 00:00 GMT (+00:00)
Day 1 will be 48 hours after this. Deadlines will be at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Any vote or action sent in after 23:59 GMT (+00:00) will not be counted.
Please read the rules, setup and all 4 of the OP's over again as closely as DeMorcerf
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Sorry guys, but I have one more question
If I get a special role like Jailkeeper or Roleblocker, I just PM the host before every night? And may I change the target afterwards as well?
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United States5684 Posts
Ask away Ange777 these are all good questions!
If you get assigned a role or to the scum team, you PM me your "action" during the 24 hour night phase. You may change your action as many times as you want during that phase (but please try not to too many times lol :p)
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Are the special roles really used in small games? Where i come from 9ers are just 7/2 vanillas. And what is kp?
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United States5684 Posts
On April 30 2012 19:35 paschl wrote: Are the special roles really used in small games? Where i come from 9ers are just 7/2 vanillas. And what is kp? KP is always 1, and there may or may not be roles
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Ah, its probably killing power right?
I guess im gonna get used to the slightly different terminologoy as the game stars. Im used to hunt werewolves
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killing point or killing power yea something like that
So sorry for giving you a hard time, mods, but I have seen some abriviations used in other games such as WIFOM and AF
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United States5684 Posts
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Alright thanks. I have only read the general guid yet, trying to find time to read all the other ones.
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Play nice newbies, I understand the game can get emotional try to stay away from personal insults.
On a side note, I will be keeping notes, and writing an end game analysis for this game from a players perspective. (Aka I don't know anybodies roles) Hopefully for those who plan to keep playing after this game, it will help you learn a thing or two.
PS - Be active, glhf
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Sounds awesome Mementoss
The game starts in ~8 hours right? (02:00cet?) And i understand it correct that the lynch system is majority based? i.e. if the votecount is 3-3-2-1 on day1 there would be no lynch?
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On April 30 2012 21:10 Mattchew wrote:WIFOM = Wine in front of me. Best described here http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM
AF i have no idea what that means
If you read all the links in the 4th OP post
This will help you greatly with abbreviations and game play
I've found that day play has very little WIFOM. Typically there is an optimal way for townspeople to play and since there is no reason for a townsperson to make himself look like a Mafia, there is no circular reasoning. The mafia will try their best to look like townspeople. The townspeople will try their best to look like townspeople. In my experience WIFOM only applies in hit or miss situations where, say, the detective has revealed himself/herself to combat a lategame roleclaim by scum when a doctor/protector has already revealed himself. At this point the doctor must think through the reasoning of whether he should protect himself or the detective.
In newbie games (in person), if I happen to get the protector role, in the absence of roleblockers, I always reveal myself immediately and instruct the detective not to do the same. This turns the game into one where knowing friends' IRL personalities and tells will win the game (which tends to favor me since I like to stare at the hot chicks I play with), rather than ridiculous WIFOM mixed strategy nonsense.
Since it is not particularly easy to detect "tells" in online text-based play (especially in newbie games where nobody knows one another), I'm not sure how such a game plays out as anything more than the result of luck and random whimsy. In the absence of tells, it seems to me like the dominant strategy in day play is to vote off whoever is most useless. Following this train of logic, the surviving players will be those that are least experienced so the identity of the winning team will be determined solely by the distribution induced by the initial RNG. Even if, on the other hand, the fact that this is a newbie game might result in a number of players genuinely having no idea about the basics of game theory, backward induction, or the mechanics of the game of mafia, scum pretending to be a such a noob unfamiliar with game mechanics is the surest way to get lynched.
The interesting part of this comes into play if the number of mafia KP + roleblocks outnumbers the town roles/roleblocks. Then mafia will have a winning chance of making headway by removing the most useful players. Then, there's some interesting play where being useless during the day protects you from being targeted at night, but might get you lynched.
All this analysis seems to yield the existence of at least one fun Nash Equilibrium: 1.) In the absence of role blocks or any roleclaims, the protector should always be as useful as he or she can be during the day. 2.) Mafia should try their best to be useful since they cannot be targeted at night. These two strategies are roughly dominant since the lack of information about the number of initial roles cannot inform a nontrivial bayesian prior, and thus no real information is revealed by being "useful."
3.) Townspeople should play a mixed strategy since there is a tradeoff between being targeted during the day or being targeted during the night. Depending on townspeoples' beliefs as to the number of mafia remaining in the game, the distribution of usefulness to uselessness should be modified accordingly.
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Oh, it never occured to me until Gummy's post: As the doctor I can protect myself too?
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Will we be told ahead of time which faction has the advantage based on a random uniform distribution of votes and or role targeting?
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United States5684 Posts
On May 01 2012 05:16 Ange777 wrote: Oh, it never occured to me until Gummy's post: As the doctor I can protect myself too? no
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United States5684 Posts
On May 01 2012 06:57 Gummy wrote: Will we be told ahead of time which faction has the advantage based on a random uniform distribution of votes and or role targeting? wut?
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On May 01 2012 07:04 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2012 06:57 Gummy wrote: Will we be told ahead of time which faction has the advantage based on a random uniform distribution of votes and or role targeting? wut? In a very rough approximation if a certain faction has the advantage, it behooves them to play randomly, since there is no advantage the other team can gain against such random play. This is only rough, however, since certain roles give critical information whose value is hard to quantify.
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United States5684 Posts
I have no idea what you are saying, i will answer like this,
The game is balanced and both factions have what I consider an equal chance to win from the start
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United States5684 Posts
Day 1
A cool breeze blew through the old town. Mayor Mattchew and his trusty side kick Mementoss sat at the local tavern enjoying another day of peace and quiet in Liquidia.
All of a sudden a blast came from outside the tavern followed by the shriek of a loud women. QuicklyMattchew and Mementoss sprang out of their seats and ran out into the street only to find a member of the town face down in a puddle of blood.
The sheriff rolled the body over and a gasp was heard throughout the crowd. It was Qatol the oldest townie left in Liquidia!
"Who would do such a thing to such a poor, defenseless, helpless, weak, and senile old man?" was shouted from the crowd of Towns people now huddled around the murder site.
"It seems we have an uprising of scum among us," said Sheriff Mattchew to the town, "I will leave you all to figure them out. These killers are among you, bring them to me and I will ensure they will receive swift justice!"
Qatol the poor, defenseless, helpless, weak, and senile old townie has been killed!
Day 1 has begun! You have 49 Hours to vote, with 9 left it takes 5 to lynch!
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United Kingdom10823 Posts
Guys, this would be where you start to talk :3
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God my fingers were tingling. Im a townie <3
Since nothing has been posted yet a few words about me. Ive played a few games on a different forum, the rules are a bit different there but the game should stay the same. Im not a total scrub anymore, i think most of the time i know what im doing.
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Just for reference the playerlist:
1.) dahdum 2.) Gummy 3.) AcesRequiem 4.) Matriarch 5.) DeMorcerf 6.) FirmTofu 7.) Clawtrocity 8.) paschl 9.) Ange777
And if anyone gets here and knows something about the forum: a) can i change the timezone? Having korean time makes no sense to me and is mindbogglingly annoying. b) is there a way to search a single thread? c) can you change the number of posts per page? Ive tried to find answers in the edit profile page but couldnt really get any help.
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Seeing as I'm not scum (roleclaim vanilla townie!), I'll try my best to be of use and keep myself in this game for a good while. I'll be keeping an updated list of the players including my notes on each. I'll try to post this list once per page, so it'll be easier to reference with the ongoing discussion without having to keep a separate window open for the OP. I'll be spoilering this list, of course, since I'm badass. Also, if you are a protector/doctor, please try keeping me around for a few nights.
Seeing as I have no data so far, my notes are currently based only on the chosen usernames.
+ Show Spoiler + 1.) dahdum -> This guy has a silly name. 2.) Gummy -> This is me. I am a vanilla townie. 3.) AcesRequiem -> What a tryhard name. Expect serious things from this pro. 4.) Matriarch -> this person is probably not female. Maybe MtF transgender. Or maybe just a feminist who believes in a merits of a matrilineal society 5.) DeMorcerf -> Don't understand this name. Maybe he is esoteric. 6.) FirmTofu -> Somebody with this amazing a name cannot be scum. I hope I'm not proven wrong. 7.) Clawtrocity -> Sense some violent undercurrents in this one. Very anakin-esque. 8.) paschl -> Good clean fun name. Hard to see such a wonderful name as scum. 9.) Ange777 -> Numbers in the name. Sounds like a smurf. Be weary of this one. Troll sense activated.
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Im gonna give Gummy some townie points for the opening. Sounds honest/happy to play and he makes a promise to keep giving notes. Once per page even. Since i think its hard to keep this up (to be clear, i dont think its possible to get the list in once per page) i think a scum would be unlikely to make the promise in the first time.
So love is all around.
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Why don't we start discussing suspected roles. Given that Mattchew believes the setup is fair and balanced, I think that it is fairly unlikely that we will see such exotic combinations of strange roles. In particular, Framer and Godfather don't do anything unless we have a detective on our side.
I suspect we will have the standard detective and medic(just looked it up and it's apparently called a medic in this game. Very bw-esque) on the townie side.
I also suspect the size of the Mafia faction is 2. Any more and the most likely outcome leaves the mafia winning by day 3. Any fewer, and they don't stand a chance.
Based on this hypothesis, the composition of the scum faction is up in the air. It might be that both members of the mafia are special roles. Since this is a newbie game and Mattchew presumably wants to make this as fun for as many of us as possible, I am going with this gut feeling. I suspect one scum is a rolecop. The other scum is a goon/blocker/framer. I don't think it would make sense for there to be two from the set of goon/blocker/framer since they more or less are out to do the same thing.... sabotage the detective.
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On May 01 2012 08:35 paschl wrote: Im gonna give Gummy some townie points for the opening. Sounds honest/happy to play and he makes a promise to keep giving notes. Once per page even. Since i think its hard to keep this up (to be clear, i dont think its possible to get the list in once per page) i think a scum would be unlikely to make the promise in the first time.
So love is all around. I'm going to give paschl some scum points since, as I mentioned in the preface chatter, that basically everybody should play the strategy of being useful with nonzero probability. However, to presume that I am a Vanilla Townie is the least probable given a set of Bayesian priors, since townies have an optimal mixed strategy between being helpful and laying low. At worst you are scum trying to direct my attention away from you. At best, you have poorly laid out your train of deduction and given the few number of players we have and the utter lack of information regarding the number and composition of roles, such naivete is ample reason for me to cast my vote for you. Alas, nobody else has opened their mouths yet.
Just to be clear, I am gambling on their not being a role blocker and there being a medic. I hope that by laying out notes I will be a sufficiently attractive target for the medic to save for the first 2 nights or so.
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Edit grammar nazi: I meant there not their in "their not being a role blocker."
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I know that a 7/2 vanilla (1 detective) is fairly balanced, its the small game im used to and i might be biased in this direction.
Youre right, i doubt there is gonna ba a framer/godfather. Both could very easily swing the small game and should create huge imbalances. A rolecop would be too strong. It gives the scum 2 chances per night to find the detective. Id suspect if there is a medic there should be a blocker. But i wouldnt be surprised at all if this is a standard 7 townie/2 scum setup with one detective.
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On May 01 2012 08:44 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2012 08:35 paschl wrote: Im gonna give Gummy some townie points for the opening. Sounds honest/happy to play and he makes a promise to keep giving notes. Once per page even. Since i think its hard to keep this up (to be clear, i dont think its possible to get the list in once per page) i think a scum would be unlikely to make the promise in the first time.
So love is all around. I'm going to give paschl some scum points since, as I mentioned in the preface chatter, that basically everybody should play the strategy of being useful with nonzero probability. However, to presume that I am a Vanilla Townie is the least probable given a set of Bayesian priors, since townies have an optimal mixed strategy between being helpful and laying low. At worst you are scum trying to direct my attention away from you. At best, you have poorly laid out your train of deduction and given the few number of players we have and the utter lack of information regarding the number and composition of roles, such naivete is ample reason for me to cast my vote for you. Alas, nobody else has opened their mouths yet. Just to be clear, I am gambling on their not being a role blocker and there being a medic. I hope that by laying out notes I will be a sufficiently attractive target for the medic to save for the first 2 nights or so.
I read your pregame posts, i just disagree. Being useful isnt something that can be defined for a mafia game. And telling townies to lay low creates an opportunity for the scum to lay low too. Laying low, i.e. making less posts is the easiest way to hide, especially for new scum.
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Also some things I've realized: Since we don't know whether there exists either, notice that the framer is strictly stronger than the godfather, since a framer who points at himself every night is just a godfather. Since there would be no point in having both a godfather and a framer given the randomness of detective selections, we can safely presume that there is no godfather. (for if there is, he would just be a very predictable framer).
List of hypothesized roles and corresponding claims: Townies: 1 Detective 1 Medic 2 Vanilla Townie - Gummy, Paschl
Scum 1 Framer 1 Rolecop
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Oh, the game started, I am really excited
Seems like I should have chosen a better name? ^^ Anyway, I am no smurf just a long time reader creating the account to try TL Mafia. I only played a similar game IRL once so I really wanted to try this.
Isn't it a bit harsh to judge the players by their names? Maybe we should talk about the name Gummy. Perhaps someone who loves gummy bears and apparentely tofu. Weird sense of taste
@Paschl: I think you can change your timezone in your profile by picking the right country.
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I have no idea what the remaining two townie roles might be. We'll know after the next night though based on the number of people dead.
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On May 01 2012 08:54 Ange777 wrote:Oh, the game started, I am really excited Seems like I should have chosen a better name? ^^ Anyway, I am no smurf just a long time reader creating the account to try TL Mafia. I only played a similar game IRL once so I really wanted to try this. Isn't it a bit harsh to judge the players by their names? Maybe we should talk about the name Gummy. Perhaps someone who loves gummy bears and apparentely tofu. Weird sense of taste @Paschl: I think you can change your timezone in your profile by picking the right country. Hey scum. You gonna claim a role?
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Gummy you shouldnt do this. Nowhere did i claim vanilla townie. I might be the detective. Youre making the job easy for the scum. And you included the scum roles for "corresponding claims"? I hope someone signs up lol.
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List of hypothesized roles and corresponding claims: Townies: 1 Detective 1 Medic 2 Vanilla Townie - Gummy, Paschl 2 Other roles?
Scum 1 Framer - Ange777 1 Rolecop
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On May 01 2012 08:59 paschl wrote: Gummy you shouldnt do this. Nowhere did i claim vanilla townie. I might be the detective. Youre making the job easy for the scum. And you included the scum roles for "corresponding claims"? I hope someone signs up lol.
On May 01 2012 08:59 Gummy wrote: List of hypothesized roles and corresponding claims: Townies: 1 Detective 1 Medic 2 Vanilla Townie - Gummy 2 Other roles?
Scum 1 Framer - Ange777 1 Rolecop - Paschl
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I've identified both scum. Do I win?
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Ok, I am a townie. But:
Isn't it better to abstain from any roleclaiming? Otherwise isn't it easier to identify the special roles?
Furthermore scum could just claim to be regular townies and right now we have no way to prove anything.
I would have thought claiming to be a townie is just as suspicious as saying nothing about it but hey, I don't have any experience in this game
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Fwiw, i read through the forum a little and there were previous 9er newbie games. In the setup thread it lists the following possible lineups: " 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Doctor. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Jailkeeper. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 5 Vanilla Townies, Doctor, Jailkeeper. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 6 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 6 Vanilla Townies, Jailkeeper. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 6 Vanilla Townies, Doctor."
So i highly suspect this game uses one of the same systems.
And no Gummy, you usually dont win if youre wrong.
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Doesn't matter if it doesn't prove anything. Your hesitation to even claim townie makes me suspect you. The fact that you admit to having no experience in this game makes me believe you are a safe vote. Fortunately, we are allowed to vote no lynch, so I am inclined to let my suspicion remain just that. Tread carefully Ange777...
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On May 01 2012 09:06 paschl wrote: Fwiw, i read through the forum a little and there were previous 9er newbie games. In the setup thread it lists the following possible lineups: " 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Doctor. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Jailkeeper. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 5 Vanilla Townies, Doctor, Jailkeeper. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 6 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 6 Vanilla Townies, Jailkeeper. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 6 Vanilla Townies, Doctor."
So i highly suspect this game uses one of the same systems.
And no Gummy, you usually dont win if youre wrong. Half those games had no detective/cop. What is this?!?!?! lol
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Id guess sane cop=detective. Although i agree that its weird to see setups without detective.
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Yay the game started! I'm vanilla townie and am very excited to be in my first real game. I really hope we get some more active posters soon as so we can get rolling on this scum hunt!
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But then we will just have 9 people claiming to be townie. I don't understand what kind of information you will get from that.
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I don't really understand the point behind forcing a role claim. Everyone will claim vanilla townie because that's the most common role and it's completely unprovable. It doesn't hide any roles because if everyone claims vanilla townie then everyone is up for attack.
I'll go ahead and say that I don't like that strategy, but regardless I'll give actions a real role to claim. With the possibility of a jailkeeper or another Medic I'm fine in saying that I'm one of the medics.
The best part is the Mafia won't attack me because they'll think I'm a vanilla townie trying to bite the bullet for the town. If the detective wants to claim I'll be here to heal him. We really just need to keep the detective alive for as long as possible because with so many non-power roles we'll be powerless eventually.
I'd be wary of Gummy for being so aggressive so early on. He's most likely trying to accuse other people so if anyone tries to point fingers at him he can claim that they're protecting the person he's pressuring. That's a pretty shady tatic and with his confindence in himself going to his head he might be trouble.
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On May 01 2012 09:10 Matriarch wrote: Yay the game started! I'm vanilla townie and am very excited to be in my first real game. I really hope we get some more active posters soon as so we can get rolling on this scum hunt! Don't worry. I already figured out who the scum are. It's paschl and ange. Thank me later.
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On May 01 2012 09:35 Gummy wrote: Don't worry. I already figured out who the scum are. It's paschl and ange. Thank me later.
I really don't know how to argue with you when you are only basing your accusation on me taking to a little longer to roleclaim. I mentioned my doubts about the usefulness of roleclaiming at the beginning. I'll just go to bed now and hope that this won't provoke any suspicion from your side :D
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Hi! I'm very excited to start playing this game. The last TL Mafia game I played, I got lynched pretty early because day ended earlier than I expected and I hadn't said much, but this time I can assure you that I will be a lot more active.
So far, I feel like I can trust Clawtrocity and Gummy. Paschl seems a bit...meh, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Matriarch could be anything, it's hard to say. Ange777 is either scum or is very inexperienced. I've got my eye on her in particular.
I want to attempt to do something, but first I need a question answered.
Are doctors notified int he event that their heal ends up healing their target? Is the healed person notified that they they have been attacked and healed?
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United States5684 Posts
EDIT: From OP
Neither you nor your target will be notified of a successful protection.
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Hey all, great to get started. Here are my thoughts so far.
Gummy - Seems like he knows a lot of strategy, so I’d like to hear why he’s claiming vanilla town on the first day. From what I’ve read that’s strange. If scum believes him, he increases chances of a power role dying. If he claims anything later on, he’s a liar and liars get lynched. He also requests a medic the first night (a waste on VT no?).
Paschl - Gives townie points quickly to Gummy and spreads the love around. Maybe just a nice guy, but seems too eager.
Agne777 - Apologizes for being bad, seems like a beginner and too defensive.
Matriarch - Claims VT and wishes for active posters (but isn’t one of them). Would like to hear her full thoughts on things.
Clawtrocity - Claiming medic right out of the gate doesn’t sound like mafia to me.
FirmTofu - The question he asks sounds like a terrible scum trying to imply medic, so I’m not sure what to think (he can't be that bad). Need more posts.
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+ Show Spoiler +Hello, gl hf. @Gummy, yes, but not intentionally esoteric; in the digital, internet age nothing stays that way. As this is "newbie" and Day 1, I would just ask that we be clear, concise, and focused. We should not be posting impulsively or without a purpose. Don't spam our own good points away. That is to say, Gummy and paschl, I assume you are excited and want to do the most to be helpful; however, your initial back-and-forth seemed to me as distracting, reflexive, and spammy, which hardly helps us focus to start the game off.
My knee-jerk reaction to seeing your discussion felt like you two got online together with the intention of distracting us with your page long short post conversation where you immediately compliment one another and suggest the other is surely clean, fun, and innocent. Posting random lists of people is actually suspicious as it creates a false illusion of being helpful while contributing nothing; especially in a short 9 player game. Gummy's first posts include 'suspecting the size of the Mafia faction to be 2' to be helpful, when it is clear in the rules that there are indeed 2 Mafia and 7 Town. I don't mean to be rude, I just want to make sure for the sake of our survival that we all read the setup and rules thoroughly to avoid having to discuss things that are indeed facts not speculation. i.e. FirmTofu asking something clearly stated in the setup rules.
@Gummy: I don't believe the framer can frame himself, just as the medic cannot heal himself, or the jailer jail himself, etc. I would not jump to any conclusions about Ange because the first post lacked a sentence that explicitly role-claimed. We should read posts to analyze players' motives and let that inform us of their roles. Without a specific plan to use a claim to some end, claiming immediately serves no purpose. Everyone is going to claim Town without a specific flavor until it helps them somehow.
I suggest that if Claw stands by his medic claim, he keep the mafia uncertain of what he will do. Given Claw can't heal himself, it was bold to come forward, but the mafia cannot know if there is a jailer or another medic to protect Claw. To be honest though, I don't see the benefit he is seeking with the claim. It is very dangerous to suggest detectives role claim immediately for you to heal, but maybe I'm misreading you. Medics, protect whoever in the town is making the most sense.
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Alright. I'm sorry, I didn't catch that part of the OP.
I'm going to attempt to put ourselves in a good position going forward by claiming Town Detective.
Clawtrocity, I am going to assume your Medic claim is true and ask you to heal me.
This is a win-win situation for us and I'll tell you why.
1) If Clawtrocity is mafia, he will not want me dead because my death would imply he is not the medic. He is half of his team. My life for his is a great trade for town. 2) If Clawtrocity is medic, he will heal me and I am completely safe from death. Mafia will be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw is telling the truth. 3) If Clawtrocity is vanilla townie, mafia will still be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw to be the medic.
HOWEVER, there is one potential hole in my plan. Claw could be vanilla townie, and I may die tonight. If this occurs we will be in a very bad position going forward. I am confident that mafia will not make such a bold move because the chances of success are minimal.
Clawtrocity, I hope you're telling the truth.
I am not afraid of dying tonight. In order to round out this temporary alliance, I would ask that any other medics out there, please heal Clawtrocity. We should be safe for the time being.
I think this is a better way to protect our key roles than the 1/7 random chance of mafia choosing to kill me.
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I would like to reiterate that this will only be a 'temporary alliance' and we should treat it as such. Clawtrocity is by no means confirmed town and we shouldn't let that happen until we have sufficient evidence to believe it. If anyone sees any other holes in the plan that I have not encountered, please let me know ASAP.
Your move, mafia.
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DeMorcerf, where in the rules does it say its a 7/2 setup?
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And wow, i come from a totally different school of this game. Where i come from this claiming on day1 would be considered atrocious.
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On April 28 2012 04:20 Mattchew wrote:Remember, three or fewer games played to sign up!Player List1.) dahdum 2.) Gummy 3.) AcesRequiem 4.) Matriarch 5.) DeMorcerf 6.) FirmTofu 7.) Clawtrocity 8.) paschl 9.) Ange777
Filter1.) 2.) 3.) 4.) 5.) 6.) 7.) 8.) 9.)
Replacements 2/2 Mafia Remaining ?/? Goon(s)?/? Roleblocker(s)?/? Framer(s)?/? Godfather(s)?/? Role cop(s)Mafia KP currently equals 17/7 Town??/?? Vanilla Townie(s)??/?? Detective(s)??/?? Medic(s)??/?? Jailkeeper(s)??/?? Vigilante(s)As usual, PM me for the observer QT, or if you wish to be listed as an official coach
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On May 01 2012 19:55 Gummy wrote: ##Vote Clawtrocity There is no strategic reason to claim medic first turn. That is suicide if you cannot save yourself. The way I see it, clawtrocity is: 1.) Useless 2.) A townie who is trying to take the bullet for the real medic. I have no reason to believe there would be two medics. 3.) Scum who is trying to cast away suspicion from himself.
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Yes. My questioning of Ange for her hesitation to roleclaim was disingenuous.
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We still haven't heard anything from AcesRequiem.
Just fyi, in case you vote me off, I currently suspect Clawtrocity and Paschl.
I am almost certain that
ange777 demorcef dahdum firmtofu
are good guys.
I believe Matriarch and AcesRequiem, so far, to be entirely useless.
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On May 01 2012 20:06 Gummy wrote: Yes. My questioning of Ange for her hesitation to roleclaim was disingenuous.
So what were your intentions?
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Hello everyone. Sorry that I am posting so late in the game.
Having read through the entire thread here is my analyses. First off about the role claiming of both the blue roles: When we bring up the list paschl made for us, we can see that Town only once had the advantage of having both a detective and medic in their ranks. It seems very unlikely that this is the case in this game, but it's still a possiblity. Now for the two of you role claiming the blue roles, there are some possible scenario's: 1) You are both scum. This seems very unlikely and it's a rare playstyle for scum to handle, but it's still possible. 2) One or both of you is/are lying. I have strong reasons to believe so. I think there's only one of you lying and that liar is possibly trying to take a bullet for the real blue roles to come into play. It's a good strategy but it has some disadvantages. First off, when you aren't who you claim to be and you do get killed/lynched, there will be a lot of confusion in the Town, which only benefits the mafia. Secondly, the real blue role is probably thinking the liar is speaking the truth and is making his moves based upon this. This would probably mean the blue role will protect the liar, thus not helping the town in any way with his abilities. 3) You are both speaking the truth. This would be a dream scenario for the Town, especially with the plan FirmTofu has come up with. This means the game will be over pretty quickly unless the mafia completely plays you and the Town.
I know I have been pretty inactive so far, I know this makes me pretty scummy, but please do believe me when I tell you I have a role of Vanilla Townie. As for all the other posts.
Gummy - you seem like a pretty active and agressive Townie to me who doesn't hesitate to put all the players (thus the mafia) under pressure. You look legit. paschl - you look like a friendly guy who wants to be nice to everyone, you haven't really attacked/been in a argument with anyone so far. Ange777 - same as paschl, became defensive when Gummy made a comment about him. Matriarch - no posts to speak of as of yet, please stop lurking and start posting! dahdum - did the same as I did, share thoughts on people, except I attacked the two role claimers. You became inactive ever since. Please get the discussion started. Demorcef - you look pretty Townie, not afraid to discuss with people.
And that's about it! Please feel free to discuss/argue with me and previous points made.
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Oh yea forgot to add, FirmTofu and Clawtrocity please try to convince me you have blue roles, otherwise you will receive my vote
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Alright i read over the few posts again. Please let me know when im being unclear, the games here seem to have a different atmosphere to what im used to.
First off let me discuss the claiming going on. I know this is a newbie game and people want to play as fancy as possible. But keep in mind this is a team game, think your actions through. Everything has consequences. Im not gonna talk about it in detail though since where i come from its a big no-no. We shouldnt do the scums work unless its really important.
As of right now my list looks like this:
townies Gummy - aggro early but aorn i think his intentions are good. AcesRequiem - his posts about the claim seemed very townish for me. DeMorcerf - especially the last paragraph in his post shows a towny line of thinking
neutral Clawtrocity - aorn both Claw/FirmTofu are neutral to me. FirmTofu Ange777 - neutral, maybe slightly leaning scum but its just early tone. Matriarch - basically nothing to go on but a slightly scumy opening
scumy Dahdum - his first post is super vague, ill get into this next
On May 01 2012 14:04 dahdum wrote: Hey all, great to get started. Here are my thoughts so far.
Gummy - Seems like he knows a lot of strategy, so I’d like to hear why he’s claiming vanilla town on the first day. From what I’ve read that’s strange. If scum believes him, he increases chances of a power role dying. If he claims anything later on, he’s a liar and liars get lynched. He also requests a medic the first night (a waste on VT no?).
Paschl - Gives townie points quickly to Gummy and spreads the love around. Maybe just a nice guy, but seems too eager.
Agne777 - Apologizes for being bad, seems like a beginner and too defensive.
Matriarch - Claims VT and wishes for active posters (but isn’t one of them). Would like to hear her full thoughts on things.
Clawtrocity - Claiming medic right out of the gate doesn’t sound like mafia to me.
FirmTofu - The question he asks sounds like a terrible scum trying to imply medic, so I’m not sure what to think (he can't be that bad). Need more posts.
There is some sort of weirdness all over this post, i underlined some parts that sound particularly off. He is making a lot of backhanded general sounding reads and gets out of thread right afterwards. I smell mafioso meat!
Im used to having a slightly "fluffy" atmosphere early in games. There is not much to talk about and even the weirdest conversations can be useful somewhere down the line.
The more scums post the more chances they have to slip up.
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@FirmTofu: if you die on night 1 then the town gets zero information from the DT. If the Mafia has roleblocker, then they will block Claw and kill you. DT claiming on Day 1... so either you are a DT and the mafia does everything they can to kill you asap, or you are a liar and we lynch you in the first couple days. Either way, this claim seems very suicidal. What kind of information do we get from it? If you are just a townie and you die soon, I fail to see how we get any info. If you are a DT, maybe you live one night and give us one report, which will likely be a confirmation of someone as Town. (The DT does not see roles, only alignment.) If you are mafia, then you bank on there not being another DT to start a lynch on you Day 2; you draw a lot of attention to yourself with the belief that you are safe because no Vig will target you and no town would lynch you before catching the lie; as a mafia you could simply pass us Town reports on people and be remis about not finding Mafia; all the while you kill us off one by one.
@Gummy: You have already labeled 3 players as useless. It's still somewhat early, so I don't think that judgement can be made and only helps if your goal is to prompt them to talk more.
@Aces, they cannot prove their roles on Day 1. The mere fact that they were foolish and bold enough to claim, however, suggests that they are not likely Mafia and we are safer waiting til Day 2 to even consider lynching one of them. We should only lynch if it gives us information and lynching either of them Day 1 would give us far less info than letting them make it to the night.
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I'm on PDT (-7) time, so it's morning at work for me, hence recent inactivity. LAL (Lynch All Liars) is in the best interest of town since scum want people confused and questioning, as well as the ability to lie themselves.
I can post more at lunch/evening.
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Claw is obviously scum. When I get killed tonight you know the other mafia is Paschl.
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If we are successful in lynching Claw and we discover he was scum, the other mafia must be tofu.
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I have no idea what youre even talking about Gummy.
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Here is my logic:
Claw is not medic, but is banking on there being "another" medic who will waste his save on him since he has now "revealed" himself as the medic.
Tofu revealed detective contingent on Claw's being medic to save him. But this reasoning is inherently flawed since he is in the best case dead second night. Both revealed means night 1.) mafia kill medic -> 2.) mafia kill detective. This strategy is so obvious that these night kills won't even reveal any information as to the identity of the scum. Thus, we can infer that there was collusion between Claw and Tofu's role claims. Therefore, if one is scum, so is the other.
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Is it normal that people give day1 claims so much credit here? Maybe my skin is just a little rougher.
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Since my train of logic is fairly revelatory of my prior dishonesty, here's a poll.
Poll: Who should I save?DeMorcef (5) 22% paschl (5) 22% Ange777 (3) 13% dahdum (2) 9% AcesRequiem (2) 9% Matriarch (2) 9% FirmTofu (2) 9% Clawtrocity (2) 9% 23 total votes Your vote: Who should I save? (Vote): dahdum (Vote): AcesRequiem (Vote): Matriarch (Vote): DeMorcef (Vote): FirmTofu (Vote): Clawtrocity (Vote): paschl (Vote): Ange777
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Lynch all liars is retarded. It is the correct strategy for townie special roles to lie, especially since medics cannot protect themselves. If a medic could protect himself, he would only then have no incentive to lie.
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Actually even then, it would be risky since there might be a mafia roleblocker. Lying is just part of this game.
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On May 02 2012 02:41 dahdum wrote: I'm on PDT (-7) time, so it's morning at work for me, hence recent inactivity. LAL (Lynch All Liars) is in the best interest of town since scum want people confused and questioning, as well as the ability to lie themselves.
I can post more at lunch/evening. If claw and tofu are gone and we still haven't won, you will be the next person on my list.
Scum suspicion level:
1 ) Clawtrocity 2.) FirmTofu 3.) dahdum 4.) paschl 5.) AcesRequiem 6.) Matriarch 7.) Ange777 8.) DeMorcerf
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Not all lies are bad. It should be called selectively lynch a lot of liars.
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On May 02 2012 03:04 paschl wrote: Not all lies are bad. It should be called selectively lynch a lot of liars. So we have a lot of liars now? Sounds pretty scummy to me.
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On May 02 2012 03:08 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 02 2012 03:04 paschl wrote: Not all lies are bad. It should be called selectively lynch a lot of liars. So we have a lot of liars now? Sounds pretty scummy to me.
Turning my words around against me isnt particularly towny. I was obviously making a general statement.
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United States5684 Posts
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United Kingdom10823 Posts
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+ Show Spoiler [A BETTER POLL] +Poll: Choose the option that best describes you.:3 (10) 43% I am a non-play in this game and I voted in the above poll (6) 26% Quatole is a cool person (4) 17% I am a player in this game and voted in the above poll (3) 13% 23 total votes Your vote: Choose the option that best describes you. (Vote): I am a player in this game and voted in the above poll (Vote): I am a non-play in this game and I voted in the above poll (Vote): Quatole is a cool person (Vote): :3
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Gummy, you forgot youself in that vote.
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Gummy's being extremely aggressive even before he switched his vote on me. His extreme confidence is causing more confusion than the two role claims because he's pushing people around. However, I don't believe he's mafia and I don't plan on voting him.
I don't particularly put a lot of emphasis into day one role claims or role claims in general, but I figure confusing the mafia is the best way to keep people alive the longest. No mafia in their right mind would ever attack someone who claims medic day one because they're most likely just a townie. That means that when I claim medic they ignore me and I'm free to go about healing people. I don't even have to heal tofu because I've already said I would. That makes him a bad target to hit just because I've already said that the Mafia will avoid him. Next thing you know our detective and medic are not dying and the only people the mafia are targeting are townies.
There's obviously the chance that the mafia bite and go for us, but I don't see that happening.
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On May 02 2012 04:08 Clawtrocity wrote: Gummy's being extremely aggressive even before he switched his vote on me. His extreme confidence is causing more confusion than the two role claims because he's pushing people around. However, I don't believe he's mafia and I don't plan on voting him.
I don't particularly put a lot of emphasis into day one role claims or role claims in general, but I figure confusing the mafia is the best way to keep people alive the longest. No mafia in their right mind would ever attack someone who claims medic day one because they're most likely just a townie. That means that when I claim medic they ignore me and I'm free to go about healing people. I don't even have to heal tofu because I've already said I would. That makes him a bad target to hit just because I've already said that the Mafia will avoid him. Next thing you know our detective and medic are not dying and the only people the mafia are targeting are townies.
There's obviously the chance that the mafia bite and go for us, but I don't see that happening.
But that is taking for granted that everyone, scum included, is just going to ignore day one claims. To me that is taking too big of a risk. Why bring attention to who is the medic and who is the detective so early in the game? This may be me bring such a raw newbie but I just don't see the point.
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...Seriously, I feel like you are burying us with your posts Gummy. That huge poll...what? Distractions and spam = scummy, not helpful.
(dahdum is correct, and Gummy and paschl are wrong.) In this game, LAL is best. It is wrong to suggest that Town all have an incentive to lie. An honest Townie can be quite powerful. Once a Town player has lied, even with good intentions, the rest of us can no longer trust him for the remainder of the game. Hence, there is no justifiable reason for us to lie. And since we need at least one plan to stick with, we should lynch all proven liars.
Claw, I think you are overthinking things. The Mafia will not avoid hitting you because they think you are lying: they are just as likely to hit a townie by randomly hitting someone else, so their best bet is to hit you with the chance of you having been honest (since liars get lynched). A revealed DT and medic are not going to be left living after 2 nights. The Mafia cannot and will not risk letting Tofu live any longer than that because with only 2 members they can't afford the chance he is DT and manages to finger one of them.
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Either don't lie... or don't get caught lying.
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There's virtually always a reason to lie. Some lies like "I'm Mafia, bro" never make sense. Others, like role claiming townie, or a vanilla townie claiming a special role have obvious incentive to lie. My vanilla townie claim, for example, baited Clawtrocity's claim, which more or less proves him to be mafia from my perspective. All that remains is for me to convince you guys that 1.) There are not 2 medics 2.) I am the medic and he is not the medic.
Clawtrocity has already become ambiguous with his language meaning he is backing off from his role claim, without any kind of real justification for why he faked his role claimed in the first case.
Tofu, as DeMorcef implied, put himself straight in the Mafia's cross hairs. He won't be alive more than 2 nights. So either he's bad, he's a martyr, or he's scum. As a martyr, he could be buying the real detective at least 2 nights of unchecked reveals. Legitimate reason to lie, especially since clawtrocity's role claim and subsequent waffling takes precedence in day play. More likely, however, Claw and Tofu got together and hatched a poorly thought out plan to make subsequent role claims. Scum is scum is scum.
Seeing as I've already counter-claimed medic, there is no plausible reason to kill me first day, since I'll be targeted first night anyway. I might not be targeted first night so as to cast aspersion on my credibility, but this is highly unlikely since a dead medic is strictly better than a weakly credible medic from the scum's point of view.
Since I am 99% sure that clawtrocity is scum, leaving 6 v 1 with at least one townie special role remaining are fantastic odds. This narrative should be corroborated by the results of the first cycle.
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I wish I were better at grammaring without grammar check or edit button.
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I don't see the benefit in lynching Claw. a) If he's medic, we've screwed ourselves. b) If he's VT, we should have let scum waste a night on him. c) If he's scum, his doctor claim will get him lynched later (when a doctor dies or is confirmed).
In any case, lynching him now doesn't provide us with information on anyone else.
I have a similar point of view on FirmTofu, his claim seems very difficult to fake.
Gummy, you're getting hard to follow for me. These two statements in particular, 3 minutes apart: Claw is obviously scum. When I get killed tonight you know the other mafia is Paschl. If we are successful in lynching Claw and we discover he was scum, the other mafia must be tofu.
If you get lynched or die, it will be difficult for us to analyze your reveal and play correctly.
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Claw is not medic. Highly doubt Tofu is detective.
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You didn't bait me into anything and implying that you did makes you seem extremely crazy. You've claimed about 6 people to be mafia so far which is more than half the game.
You end up counter claiming me acting like you planned it all along when you clearly didn't because you would have posted it after I made my post. You posted plenty of times in between my post and this counter claim post. Not to mention your post discredits me by trying to say I'm backing away from my role claim when I'm not. I'm the medic.
Whether you're the medic or not is up for discussion, but right now you're causing chaos and accusing anyone that talks. I'd also like to know in what world you counter claim someone where the list of actual roles isn't shown. This isn't a "There's only one Medic" game so you may have revealed yourself for no reason.
Like I said before, I'm almost positive you aren't mafia, but your pointing the town in the wrong direction.
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On May 02 2012 02:48 Gummy wrote: Here is my logic:
Claw is not medic, but is banking on there being "another" medic who will waste his save on him since he has now "revealed" himself as the medic.
Tofu revealed detective contingent on Claw's being medic to save him. But this reasoning is inherently flawed since he is in the best case dead second night. Both revealed means night 1.) mafia kill medic -> 2.) mafia kill detective. This strategy is so obvious that these night kills won't even reveal any information as to the identity of the scum. Thus, we can infer that there was collusion between Claw and Tofu's role claims. Therefore, if one is scum, so is the other. Say what?
You're passing this off as...logic? First of all, mafia won't attack Claw unless they wish to take a HUGE risk. They'd essentially be betting that there isn't a second medic out there, just to kill a claimed medic. It's a bad idea, no matter how you look at it. They'll need all the kills they can get from night to night and risking a non-kill on someone who might get healed is a bad idea.
Your conclusion of my death by night two does not follow from your premises. Therefore, your argument is logically flawed. Yes, it is a possibility I may die on night 2, but there was a possibility of me dying on night 2 even if I didn't claim detective. I think my roleclaim is forcing the mafia's hand as we speak.
Let's assume mafia takes the enormous risk. EVEN IF Clawtrocity dies night 1, a jailkeeper is always out there to protect me.
Furthermore, the fact that you want to kill me after I claim detective is extremely scummy. Do you really think Claw and I somehow planned all this out, the roleclaim and everything, as a mafia team? It would be a very foolish long-term strategy for mafia, because if either one died for ANY reason, the other would be incriminated immediately. I am not so short-sighted.
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There is less than a 50% probability conditioned on the history of past games of there being EITHER a jailkeeper another medic or both. Therefore this isn't a risk at all for the mafia.
Secondly, you're basically using a "It would be too obvious if I were Mafia, therefore I'm not Mafia" argument which isn't going to fly. The wine is in front of you, not in front of me, scum.
I have to study for finals now, so I'll see you guys next cycle. That said my vote is in and I've cast my save via PM already in case I don't get lynched this day cycle.
Recommend voting clawtrocity and tofu immediately.
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On May 02 2012 13:29 Gummy wrote: There is less than a 50% probability conditioned on the history of past games of there being EITHER a jailkeeper another medic or both. Therefore this isn't a risk at all for the mafia.
Secondly, you're basically using a "It would be too obvious if I were Mafia, therefore I'm not Mafia" argument which isn't going to fly. The wine is in front of you, not in front of me, scum.
I have to study for finals now, so I'll see you guys next cycle. That said my vote is in and I've cast my save via PM already in case I don't get lynched this day cycle.
Recommend voting clawtrocity and tofu immediately. I'm sorry I haven't played many games on this site, so I don't have preconceived notions as to how games are balanced. While you may very well be right about there either being a jailkeeper OR a medic, you aren't exactly explaining your position very well.
I claimed detective because I see it as the best way for me to stay alive. I explained why in my second post. If you see any problems with that logic, feel free to poke holes in it and I'll be glad to answer. These ad hominem arguments aren't getting us anywhere other than, "You're scum because it's scummy to claim on day 1!" Please provide some reasoning to back up your accusations.
To be clear, I do believe you are town. I just would like you to see where I'm coming from.
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I just found something rather interesting I would like to share with you all. Posted right after my role claim:
On May 01 2012 20:16 Gummy wrote: We still haven't heard anything from AcesRequiem.
Just fyi, in case you vote me off, I currently suspect Clawtrocity and Paschl.
I am almost certain that
ange777 demorcef dahdum firmtofu
are good guys.
I believe Matriarch and AcesRequiem, so far, to be entirely useless. >Claims he is almost certain I am a good guy.
On May 02 2012 02:42 Gummy wrote: Claw is obviously scum. When I get killed tonight you know the other mafia is Paschl. >Claims Claw is scum to a very high degree of certainty. Absolutely no reasoning to back up his accusations. >Poses the conditional that if he dies, Claw and Paschl are mafia. No explanation given.
On May 02 2012 02:45 Gummy wrote: If we are successful in lynching Claw and we discover he was scum, the other mafia must be tofu. IMMEDIATELY AFTER: >Poses a contradictory statement to the one he JUST posted that implies that in the event Claw flips mafia, I am mafia. Again, no explanation.
On May 02 2012 02:48 Gummy wrote: Here is my logic:
Claw is not medic, but is banking on there being "another" medic who will waste his save on him since he has now "revealed" himself as the medic.
Tofu revealed detective contingent on Claw's being medic to save him. But this reasoning is inherently flawed since he is in the best case dead second night. Both revealed means night 1.) mafia kill medic -> 2.) mafia kill detective. This strategy is so obvious that these night kills won't even reveal any information as to the identity of the scum. Thus, we can infer that there was collusion between Claw and Tofu's role claims. Therefore, if one is scum, so is the other. >Finally attempts to explain his cryptic accusations. Is now dead-set on me and Claw being mafia. Note that this is a complete reversal from his previous conclusion that Claw and Paschl are mafia. Flip-flopper? I'd say so.
I did not post a single time between these posts made by Gummy. However, Gummy completely changed his stance on his views on me from 100% confirmed town to 100% confirmed mafia. He makes no real case for why he did this other than posing hypothetical scenarios and saying they will occur with a 100% degree of certainty.
Conclusion: Gummy should not be taken seriously. He knows absolutely nothing of value and is contributing nothing to our discussion. I am completely dumbfounded by his train of thought because it doesn't make sense for ANY alignment to act the way he is right now. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and conclude he is merely inexperienced before I jump to any conclusions about his role. I'll look into it more later.
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That's about the best I'll get out of Gummy then. I was merely telling him he wasn't mafia to trick him into getting defensive. In a nutshell if I called him out as being mafia he'd say I was stupid and move on, but because I told him that he wasn't mafia he inadvertently got defensive and used a defensive mechanic called projection.
If you notice in his post he claims this:
Clawtrocity has already become ambiguous with his language meaning he is backing off from his role claim, without any kind of real justification for why he faked his role claimed in the first case.
As a martyr, he could be buying the real detective at least 2 nights of unchecked reveals. Legitimate reason to lie,
How is it ok for Tofu to do it, but not okay for me to lie about my role?
I believe he's projecting himself onto me which is why he claimed Medic. He's trying to say that I'm the one that's sneaky and lying, even though he did the exact same thing. If you look hard enough you'll see projections with everything he says.
He admits that lying is ok, but condemns me for lying even though he lied as well.
So if we take into account his love to project himself onto everyone else then we can also take into account the fact that he is accusing everyone of being scum. That in combination with his slightly defensive attitude and role claim after I said he wasn't scum makes me think he's scum.
At worst he's a citizen who's skill has gone way to much to his head
At best he's a scum who'll lie and bullshit his way around until eventually getting lynched while his teammate sits in the back and does almost nothing.
##Vote Gummy
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If there can't be 2 medics, at least one of you is lying.
I am somehow torn between Claw and Gummy.
Claw
I actually agree with DeMorcerfs LAL, so what struck me was this:
On May 02 2012 15:02 Clawtrocity wrote: How is it ok for Tofu to do it, but not okay for me to lie about my role?
Why are you already implying that (both of) you are lying? As of now, no one can prove the claims. Although you stated you don't like this specific tactic of early roleclaiming, why wouldn't you insist on being the medic and defend your role against other accusations? Is it because you know you are lying and the medic has to be someone else? You might confuse mafia with this move but you could be mafia youself confusing all of us townies.
Gummy
I don't like your aggressive way of playing, doubting every player based on very little and somehow changing your mind every minute. But your timing to claim medic and to suspect Claw got me thinking. Gummy immediately called Claw scum when Claw roleclaimed. There may not have been any good arguments why Claw should be scum at that time but if Gummy was sure about Claw lying that would be more than enough to doubt him.
On May 01 2012 20:04 Gummy wrote: The way I see it, clawtrocity is: 1.) Useless 2.) A townie who is trying to take the bullet for the real medic. I have no reason to believe there would be two medics. 3.) Scum who is trying to cast away suspicion from himself.
Only after rereading the filter I saw that Gummy already sliped a medic claim. Either it was a simple mistake him being the medic or a really well did move being scum to cast suspicion on Claw.
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I woke up early on final exam day so I guess I have a few minutes to post.
1.) Why am I so aggressive to the point of nonsensicality?
I want to place pressure on players. Inexperience implies high vulnerability to pressure. Since I know I'm not scum I have nothing to hide by running around randomly placing pressure on every player who gives me reason to doubt their cool headedness. Contradictory roleclaim by clawtrocity and subsequent suicidal roleclaim by tofu were typical actions I was hoping to see from such pressure.
2.) Why did I not reveal my medic role immediately after Claw's reveal?
I did if you were watching carefully. I wanted to do it in a measured fashion until I saw Claw's reaction immediately after my casting a vote for him. Once I was reasonably confident I made a very obvious counter claim.
3.) Why am I suddenly more interested in Tofu than in Paschl?
A bit of a.) delayed reasoning based on my focus on Claw's text that didn't make it obvious to me until about the time I placed my vote for Claw that Tofu's role claim was either conditioned entirely on the probability of their being more than one protective townie role or his being suicidal/scum. b.) his subsequent "defense" when I began to pressure him became exquisitely suspicious. In particular, his rebuttal of my accusation:
On May 02 2012 13:14 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 02 2012 02:48 Gummy wrote: Here is my logic:
Claw is not medic, but is banking on there being "another" medic who will waste his save on him since he has now "revealed" himself as the medic.
Tofu revealed detective contingent on Claw's being medic to save him. But this reasoning is inherently flawed since he is in the best case dead second night. Both revealed means night 1.) mafia kill medic -> 2.) mafia kill detective. This strategy is so obvious that these night kills won't even reveal any information as to the identity of the scum. Thus, we can infer that there was collusion between Claw and Tofu's role claims. Therefore, if one is scum, so is the other. Say what? You're passing this off as...logic? First of all, mafia won't attack Claw unless they wish to take a HUGE risk. They'd essentially be betting that there isn't a second medic out there, just to kill a claimed medic. It's a bad idea, no matter how you look at it. They'll need all the kills they can get from night to night and risking a non-kill on someone who might get healed is a bad idea. Your conclusion of my death by night two does not follow from your premises. Therefore, your argument is logically flawed. Yes, it is a possibility I may die on night 2, but there was a possibility of me dying on night 2 even if I didn't claim detective. I think my roleclaim is forcing the mafia's hand as we speak. Let's assume mafia takes the enormous risk. EVEN IF Clawtrocity dies night 1, a jailkeeper is always out there to protect me. Furthermore, the fact that you want to kill me after I claim detective is extremely scummy. Do you really think Claw and I somehow planned all this out, the roleclaim and everything, as a mafia team? It would be a very foolish long-term strategy for mafia, because if either one died for ANY reason, the other would be incriminated immediately. I am not so short-sighted.
The bolded section, from the Mafia's perspective is not even a risk worth considering. His entire rebuttal rests, then, on an assumption by the Mafia that there is a >50% chance of there being another protective role in the town and that protective role is somehow willing to waste a vote protecting two suicidal roleclaims instead of a very likely useful and cool-headed townie like Demorcef.
The question in the thread
On May 01 2012 10:38 FirmTofu wrote: Hi! I'm very excited to start playing this game. The last TL Mafia game I played, I got lynched pretty early because day ended earlier than I expected and I hadn't said much, but this time I can assure you that I will be a lot more active.
So far, I feel like I can trust Clawtrocity and Gummy. Paschl seems a bit...meh, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Matriarch could be anything, it's hard to say. Ange777 is either scum or is very inexperienced. I've got my eye on her in particular.
I want to attempt to do something, but first I need a question answered.
Are doctors notified int he event that their heal ends up healing their target? Is the healed person notified that they they have been attacked and healed?
Was already explicitly answered in the pre-game chatter. I found his re-asking that same question particularly suspicious and the answer he received to that question entirely inconsistent with his legitimately being a detective. While no mention is made of the actual result of the medic's action, for example, that somebody's being alive and nobody else being dead means either 1.) My save was effective 2.) Townies have more than one protective role. 3.) Mafia be trollin'.
So then, after going through a few practice exams, I came back and thought about why that question would need to be answered, and most obvious reason I could see for it was to open up a medic roleclaim by somebody with whom he had previously been in communication. Since only mafia are allowed to privately communicate and since I was, by this time, convinced by Claw's scumminess, my attention turned entirely to Claw.
This following exerpt:
I claimed detective because I see it as the best way for me to stay alive. I explained why in my second post. If you see any problems with that logic, feel free to poke holes in it and I'll be glad to answer. These ad hominem arguments aren't getting us anywhere other than, "You're scum because it's scummy to claim on day 1!" Please provide some reasoning to back up your accusations.
in particular became damning in my eyes. "I claimed detective because I see it as the best way for me to stay alive." It's not that I don't buy that logic, but rather I don't buy that anybody would be legitimately foolish enough to believe that logic. Turning to his second post, reproduced here:
On May 01 2012 18:01 FirmTofu wrote: Clawtrocity, I am going to assume your Medic claim is true and ask you to heal me.
This is a win-win situation for us and I'll tell you why.
1) If Clawtrocity is mafia, he will not want me dead because my death would imply he is not the medic. He is half of his team. My life for his is a great trade for town. 2) If Clawtrocity is medic, he will heal me and I am completely safe from death. Mafia will be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw is telling the truth. 3) If Clawtrocity is vanilla townie, mafia will still be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw to be the medic.
HOWEVER, there is one potential hole in my plan. Claw could be vanilla townie, and I may die tonight. If this occurs we will be in a very bad position going forward. I am confident that mafia will not make such a bold move because the chances of success are minimal.
Let's look at this reasoning based on maximizing expectation of surviving. Presume, for the sake of argument, that he is the detective, he believes Claw's claim, and he is genuinely trying to stay alive. What is his probability of being targeted after Claw's reveal on the first night? The obvious answer is that it's the same probability he enjoyed of being lynched had he not revealed Detective himself. He, in no way, increases the probability of survival of himself or the medic on the first night since the medic cannot heal himself. What about night 2?
Presuming 2 lynches and 1 mafia kill (on the presumedly legitimate medic), there are 6 townies left in the second night. He is sure to die.
What if he had not revealed himself? Then his probability of surviving to make a second ID is at least 5/6. Giving him a 5/6 probability on day 3 of having 2 reveals ready to go on the remaining 5 players. If the town believes him, the town wins, since the majority of the town has been identified.
Now there is nothing complex or subtle about this line of reasoning and I am not convinced that Tofu would have been oblivious to this prior to his claim of such a vulnerable and valuable role...
Until we take the counterfactual where he is not detective and knows that he will not be targeted either of these two nights. Well then, his hope would be that he could bullshit his way through day play. Then be in the same situation on day 3 with 2 bullshit reveals. Now, his only task remains to stay consistent with his flawed logic. If the town believes him, Mafia immediately win.
Now I reiterate... there is no WIFOM going on in this reasoning here and no circularity is implied. I am merely laying out optimal strategies for Tofu given two possible states of the world. In one state of the world (where he is actually detective), his strategy is suicidal. In another state of the world (where is not detective), his strategy makes only makes sense insofar as his opponents are not clever enough to pick out the aforementioned sub-optimality.
And as far as text-based Mafia goes without knowing people's prior personalities and/or tells, suboptimality of strategy is all you can really use to incriminate somebody.
The next question is "Gummy, why are you so noble as to place yourself in the crosshairs?"
Well this is easy to understand based on the prior train of reasoning. I am sufficiently confident in Claw being scum, that my being killed off tonight will leave the town in a 6 v. 1 situation. Simplification in such games always works in the majority's favor.
Also, I'm just a really good guy. <- not actual reasoning
So TL;DR: Claw is definitely scum. When I'm dead after the first night, presume Tofu as the subsequent prime suspect.
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On May 02 2012 15:02 Clawtrocity wrote:That's about the best I'll get out of Gummy then. I was merely telling him he wasn't mafia to trick him into getting defensive. In a nutshell if I called him out as being mafia he'd say I was stupid and move on, but because I told him that he wasn't mafia he inadvertently got defensive and used a defensive mechanic called projection. If you notice in his post he claims this: Show nested quote +Clawtrocity has already become ambiguous with his language meaning he is backing off from his role claim, without any kind of real justification for why he faked his role claimed in the first case. Show nested quote +As a martyr, he could be buying the real detective at least 2 nights of unchecked reveals. Legitimate reason to lie, How is it ok for Tofu to do it, but not okay for me to lie about my role? I believe he's projecting himself onto me which is why he claimed Medic. He's trying to say that I'm the one that's sneaky and lying, even though he did the exact same thing. If you look hard enough you'll see projections with everything he says. He admits that lying is ok, but condemns me for lying even though he lied as well. So if we take into account his love to project himself onto everyone else then we can also take into account the fact that he is accusing everyone of being scum. That in combination with his slightly defensive attitude and role claim after I said he wasn't scum makes me think he's scum. At worst he's a citizen who's skill has gone way to much to his head At best he's a scum who'll lie and bullshit his way around until eventually getting lynched while his teammate sits in the back and does almost nothing. ##Vote Gummy
There is nothing categorically wrong in this game with lying.
What matters instead, is whether or not you can deduce lying as an optimal strategy given a set of beliefs or objectives. Claiming to be a medic when you're not a medic is only optimal insofar as to be a martyr. However this is only conditional on a belief that there is a high probability in there being a real medic, which using the history Ange777 posted as a Bayesian prior, is only 50%. So we are expected to believe that Claw would be willing to suicide himself with 100% probability on night 1 for the sake of protecting a role that has only a 50% chance of existing, and would only have a 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 (depending on how day play goes) of being targeted anyway.
That is not consistent with the victory conditions of the townspeople. There should really be no doubt in anybody's mind that Claw is scum...
On the other hand, claiming to be a vanilla in case of an actual role, as I did, is consistent with my aforementioned strategy of placing pressure on people to role claim. Cool headed, townie-faction should optimally claim either Vanilla Townie or just flatly refuse to role claim as a number of players correctly did. So conditioned on the fact that I needed to make the "ROLE CLAIM NAO!" act convincing and I needed to make a role claim of some sort, I was much safer claiming Vanilla than an actual role, since it is a dominant strategy in expectations, conditional on role claiming and the given roles where you can't save yourself (especially with a potential roleblocker), to claim vanilla. I've already worked through the cases as to why this is so for the roles of detective and medic (see this post for medic and previous post for detective). The logic for jailkeeper and vigilante are basically the same.
Thus my lie is consistent with my being in the townie faction. Claw's lie was not.
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Also. Paschl is legit. I never had a real reason doubt him and I was just placing generic pressure on him after he seemed a little too eager to make friendlyz in his first few posts.
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@Observers: How am I doing? :D
Poll: How Pro is Gummy?Crazy pretentious douchebag. (10) 56% Obvious scum is obvious. (4) 22% Greatest natural to ever play TLM. (3) 17% Kinda schizo. (1) 6% 18 total votes Your vote: How Pro is Gummy? (Vote): Obvious scum is obvious. (Vote): Crazy pretentious douchebag. (Vote): Kinda schizo. (Vote): Greatest natural to ever play TLM.
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Dang, I wonder who voted for (Obvious scum is obvious.)
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Wait.... what if my initial banter with Paschl was planned out so we didn't appear to be a pair of mafioso, and then Claw and Tofu just happened to make poorly thought-out plays and Paschl and I are just secretly laughing between ourselves on a secret IRC channel somewhere, secretly?
Since this is a newbie game, it's kind of hard to tell between innocuous shitty play, as from myself, and genuinely scummy play, as from Claw. Maybe it's like Garena HoN where
♬ Anything is possible! ♬
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Ok. Mental masturbation is just too fun. Back to studying for my game theory final. xD
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On May 02 2012 05:00 DeMorcerf wrote: ...Seriously, I feel like you are burying us with your posts Gummy. That huge poll...what? Distractions and spam = scummy, not helpful.
(dahdum is correct, and Gummy and paschl are wrong.) In this game, LAL is best. It is wrong to suggest that Town all have an incentive to lie. An honest Townie can be quite powerful. Once a Town player has lied, even with good intentions, the rest of us can no longer trust him for the remainder of the game. Hence, there is no justifiable reason for us to lie. And since we need at least one plan to stick with, we should lynch all proven liars.
Claw, I think you are overthinking things. The Mafia will not avoid hitting you because they think you are lying: they are just as likely to hit a townie by randomly hitting someone else, so their best bet is to hit you with the chance of you having been honest (since liars get lynched). A revealed DT and medic are not going to be left living after 2 nights. The Mafia cannot and will not risk letting Tofu live any longer than that because with only 2 members they can't afford the chance he is DT and manages to finger one of them.
Took a shower and I feel awake! Yay Caffeine!
A stronger strategy than LAL, especially in newbie games, is LSP or Lynch Suboptimal Play. If people play strategies that are not rationalizable given their claimed set of beliefs, either they don't know what they are doing or they are lying about their beliefs.
LAL is too restrictive a solution concept and when brought to a logical conclusion, everybody posts "I am a vanilla townie. I don't know anything" as often as possible and no information is brought out.
Bullying people into making hasty plays is a much stronger strategy, imo. Even if that bullying requires some lying on my part. As far as I'm concerned I'm a dead man walking anyway, so I might as well get as much information out as possible for you guys before I get shot in my sleep tonight.
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A stronger strategy than LAL, especially in newbie games, is LSP or Lynch Suboptimal Play. If people play strategies that are not rationalizable given their claimed set of beliefs, either they don't know what they are doing or they are lying about their beliefs.
Glossary
Information set: A set of states of the world between which a given player cannot distinguish.
Information partition: A set of nonintersecting information sets. Each player's information partition may differ from every other person's. I don't actually use this term, but it serves to place the previous term in context. A person can be said to be "omniscient" if all his or her information sets within his/her information partition is of size 1. A player is said to have "imperfect information" otherwise.
Strategy: A mapping from an information set to an action. An example would be "If I am here, I will play this action with some probability." In Rock paper scissors, since you don't know what your opponent is playing, your strategy can only be a probability distribution on R, P, or S. You can't say "If my opponent plays rock, I'll play paper" since what your opponent will play (Rock, paper or scissors) are all in the same information set. In chess, however, you can say "If my opponent plays E4 for his first move, I'll play E5 for my first move."
Belief: In a game of imperfect information, this is a probability distribution conditioned on you being in a given information set over the possible states of the world in that information set. For example you can say in Rock Paper Scissors, I believe that my opponent will play Rock. Thus, your belief places a probability of 1 on rock and probability of 0 on the other two actions playable by your opponent. You can say that a strategy is optimal with respect to a player's beliefs if he plays "Scissors" in response to a claimed belief of Paper.
Correct or Reasonable Beliefs: There are some beliefs that are obviously incorrect. Computation of correctness of a belief is rather pedantic and involves taking limits. As far as is necessary to understand, when I use the term "reasonable beliefs" or "set of beliefs" I am referring to the "Support" of reasonable beliefs, or that is the states of the world one can reasonably believe himself to be in with nonzero probability. States of the world are just different possible scenarios you could be in within a given information set. (Again with RPS, the opponent having made up his mind to play scissors is one state of the world. Paper would be another, etc...)
To expand on this for people unfamiliar with game theory.... We are all playing a game of imperfect information. We can assume that people play rationalizable strategies given their claimed set of beliefs. Rationalizable means best response. In rock paper scissors, this means that I play rock if I think you will play scissors, etc... If, however, it turns out that somebody claims they were expecting scissors, but then play paper, we know they were lying.
But lying isn't important. What is important is that we can deduce from a given set of play, a set of beliefs (see glossary) for which that play is optimal or near-optimal. In the instance where somebody says "I'm expecting paper" yet invariably plays rock, for example, we can deduce that he ACTUALLY was expecting scissors or is just bad.
So while LAL is a good starting point for casting suspicion, we need to see the set of beliefs for which the discovered lie is optimal. If the set of beliefs for which the discovered lie is optimal does not intersect with correct beliefs to be held by townspeople, only then do we lynch them. To illustrate this point with another example... presume that revealing yourself as a role increases your believed likelihood of getting targeted at night if you're a townie, but does not increase your believed likelihood of getting targeted at night if your'e a mafia. Thus, suicidal role revelation is not an action consistent with any beliefs that might be reasonably held by a townsperson. It is, however, almost consistent with some beliefs that could be reasonably held by a Mafia, depending on how we model players' conditioning of beliefs based on information sets.
I've used "imperfect information" "beliefs" and "states of the world." These are all different ways for saying more or less the same thing in somewhat different frameworks. You can simulate "states of the world" in a game of imperfect information by adding an impartial player at the beginning, named "Nature" if you will, who plays a strategy unobservable by some subset of the players. Then we can model beliefs based on what each player believes about which unobservable strategies were played.
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If this is all boring or irrelevant to you, just see this as me trying to study for my exam in a way that doesn't want me to blow my brains out. :D
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doesn't make me want to* I am so bad at English.
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Oh one other important point I didn't mention is payoffs. Whether certain beliefs make sense for a player depends on payoffs of all players. We don't know the payoff of a given player, say Gummy, but if we hypothesize the setup of the game, we can ascertain payoffs for certain roles. Mafia, for example, have positive payoff when a nonmafia is lynched during day play. Townspeople, on the other hand have a positive payoff wherever Mafia have a negative payoff. From payoffs, we can derive beliefs, so in that sense the pedantic computation of limits I dismissed a few posts up is significant. In most cases, however, such computations are simply consistent with common sense.
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Gummy, its a newbie game. A lof of people are gonna make mistakes because theyre new to the game. Lynching suboptimal play in a newbie game makes 0 sense. I feel like my head just exploded.
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United States5684 Posts
2 things
No more polls. (They are stupid)
Do not edit your posts. Claw has been warned. The only change in his post is the bold'ing of his vote. This is Mod-Confirmed.
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For what its worth i think Gummy spewed himself towny. If he puts this much effort into the game and puts himself out there like this as a mafia, respect.
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On May 02 2012 22:06 Mattchew wrote: 2 things
No more polls. (They are stupid)
Do not edit your posts. Claw has been warned. The only change in his post is the bold'ing of his vote. This is Mod-Confirmed.
Lots of stupid things are fun though. Some people even find things fun precisely because those things are stupid. More to the point, I feel that polls are a way of anonymously involving the input of nonplayer TL members and gives the game an illusion of interactivity that will draw more observers and garner more interest in future TLM games!
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On May 02 2012 21:30 paschl wrote: Gummy, its a newbie game. A lof of people are gonna make mistakes because theyre new to the game. Lynching suboptimal play in a newbie game makes 0 sense. I feel like my head just exploded. So what's the alternative? Voting people off via an arbitrary and provably exploitable strategy (LAL)?
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On May 02 2012 22:54 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 02 2012 22:06 Mattchew wrote: 2 things
No more polls. (They are stupid)
Do not edit your posts. Claw has been warned. The only change in his post is the bold'ing of his vote. This is Mod-Confirmed.
Lots of stupid things are fun though. Some people even find things fun precisely because those things are stupid. More to the point, I feel that polls are a way of anonymously involving the input of nonplayer TL members and gives the game an illusion of interactivity that will draw more observers and garner more interest in future TLM games!
It also kinda messes with the metagame since any interaction can have consequences ingame. I was actually surprised to see people not in the game posting itt.
On May 02 2012 22:58 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 02 2012 21:30 paschl wrote: Gummy, its a newbie game. A lof of people are gonna make mistakes because theyre new to the game. Lynching suboptimal play in a newbie game makes 0 sense. I feel like my head just exploded. So what's the alternative? Voting people off via an arbitrary and provably exploitable strategy (LAL)?
Its exploitable under optimal circumstances. This is a newbie game. Mafia is gonna be afraid to post, have a harder time reaching their goals since they have to lie every step of the way. They have to make up cases and most likely defend them. They have to think ahead on how their posting today influences them tomorrow. This isnt an easy job. And were here to shoot them if they screw up. I mean id like to give you a course on scumhunting but i dont think im experience enough to do it.
Votecount AcesRequiem Ange777 Clawtrocity votes Gummy Dahdum DeMorcerf FirmTofu Gummy votes Clawtrocity Matriarch Paschl
So its Gummy 1 Claw 1. Just wanted to put this out there since it gets real today (or tomorrow). Ill be back with a bigger post soon.
Can the medic heal the same target twice in a row?.
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Aorn i see it like this:
towny DeMorcerf - towny. Gummy - i made this point in my last post but if he puts himself out there like this as a mafioso he deserves the spot on my list. Ange777 - latest post was extremely villagery. Both the line of thinking and him telling Gummy not to go after everyone for very little. (+ Show Spoiler +On May 02 2012 17:50 Ange777 wrote:If there can't be 2 medics, at least one of you is lying. I am somehow torn between Claw and Gummy. Claw I actually agree with DeMorcerfs LAL, so what struck me was this: Show nested quote +On May 02 2012 15:02 Clawtrocity wrote: How is it ok for Tofu to do it, but not okay for me to lie about my role?
Why are you already implying that (both of) you are lying? As of now, no one can prove the claims. Although you stated you don't like this specific tactic of early roleclaiming, why wouldn't you insist on being the medic and defend your role against other accusations? Is it because you know you are lying and the medic has to be someone else? You might confuse mafia with this move but you could be mafia youself confusing all of us townies. Gummy I don't like your aggressive way of playing, doubting every player based on very little and somehow changing your mind every minute. But your timing to claim medic and to suspect Claw got me thinking. Gummy immediately called Claw scum when Claw roleclaimed. There may not have been any good arguments why Claw should be scum at that time but if Gummy was sure about Claw lying that would be more than enough to doubt him. Show nested quote +On May 01 2012 20:04 Gummy wrote: The way I see it, clawtrocity is: 1.) Useless 2.) A townie who is trying to take the bullet for the real medic. I have no reason to believe there would be two medics. 3.) Scum who is trying to cast away suspicion from himself. Only after rereading the filter I saw that Gummy already sliped a medic claim. Either it was a simple mistake him being the medic or a really well did move being scum to cast suspicion on Claw. ) A mafia has basically no incentive to do it. FirmTofu - claimed detective on day1, think this trough. Does a scum claim detective on day1? It would surely come back to haunt him later. Id even argue about the usefulness of this when youre a vanilla. This combined with his posts having a sort of tonwish conspiricy feel to them he goes on my town list.
neutral AcesRequiem - liked his first post, fell off after and hasnt been back yet. Clawtrocity - Im torn on claw. Some of his posts are weird. F.e. "If the detective wants to claim I'll be here to heal him." (+ Show Spoiler +On May 01 2012 09:24 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't really understand the point behind forcing a role claim. Everyone will claim vanilla townie because that's the most common role and it's completely unprovable. It doesn't hide any roles because if everyone claims vanilla townie then everyone is up for attack.
I'll go ahead and say that I don't like that strategy, but regardless I'll give actions a real role to claim. With the possibility of a jailkeeper or another Medic I'm fine in saying that I'm one of the medics.
The best part is the Mafia won't attack me because they'll think I'm a vanilla townie trying to bite the bullet for the town. If the detective wants to claim I'll be here to heal him. We really just need to keep the detective alive for as long as possible because with so many non-power roles we'll be powerless eventually.
I'd be wary of Gummy for being so aggressive so early on. He's most likely trying to accuse other people so if anyone tries to point fingers at him he can claim that they're protecting the person he's pressuring. That's a pretty shady tatic and with his confindence in himself going to his head he might be trouble. ) This sounds like a mafioso trying to lure out the detective. But again, its a newbie game. It could just be a mistake. Either way i will keep my eye on him but he shouldnt be lynched today.
scumy Matriarch - has barely posted. Only him making sense in his last post makes ne not want to lynch him today. Still want to see more. Dahdum - should be lynched. He still barely posted. Ive made my post about him earlier, and since then he added one post defending claw. I understand his reasoning but the whole post is evasive. Like he wants to distance himself from a claw lynch (+ Show Spoiler +On May 02 2012 12:06 dahdum wrote:I don't see the benefit in lynching Claw. a) If he's medic, we've screwed ourselves. b) If he's VT, we should have let scum waste a night on him. c) If he's scum, his doctor claim will get him lynched later (when a doctor dies or is confirmed). In any case, lynching him now doesn't provide us with information on anyone else. I have a similar point of view on FirmTofu, his claim seems very difficult to fake. Gummy, you're getting hard to follow for me. These two statements in particular, 3 minutes apart: Show nested quote +Claw is obviously scum. When I get killed tonight you know the other mafia is Paschl. If we are successful in lynching Claw and we discover he was scum, the other mafia must be tofu. If you get lynched or die, it will be difficult for us to analyze your reveal and play correctly. ). If Dahdum flips mafia it would give claw a lot of town points.
So, how do i do this? ##Vote: Dahdum
The talk about blue roles should probably stop for today. Im not saying you shouldnt make cases based on those posts but the discussion of who might be what role shouldnt take up most of our time on day1. We will get a lot of additional informations on day2. For now lets focus on hunting scum. I know its day1 and hard to find scum based on the low postcount but all we can do is use what we have.
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Day 2 will, in all likelihood have 2 fewer people. Now is as good a time as ever to make as much of the information we have as possible. If we vote a townie off today and mafia land their hit (most likely on me since I've made quite the passionate case for being the medic) , we will be in a situation of 5 townies vs. 2 Mafia, with at least 1 power role for the town gone. That's a terrible situation to be in.
Your reasoning for voting Dahdum is that he's useless. If that's his worst offense, then I recommend you vote for nolynch. Clawtrocity, imo, has not only shown himself to be a liar, but has shown himself to be a liar with motives that could only be scummy. It's not that he's useless, it's that he's actively hurting the townie's position with his play (luring out a detective). Whether or not he is scum, he needs to go.
Despite what Claw warned you of, I am confident enough in my case and the reasoning I have laid out to say that anybody defending Claw or even deflecting attention away from Claw is suspect. There is literally no evidence in this format that could be more incriminating than what has already been presented. So incriminating is the evidence against him that even as his partner in scum, you should be voting for him at this point.
A lot of the faulty logic I've seen so far is "let it play out. We'll have more information later."
You don't get free information in this game. If you don't land a lynch on a Mafia you are in exactly the same information state in the next day, only you're in a worse position than the day before. Anybody can claim to be detective and make something up. That's not information. The only information in this game you can trust is stuff revealed directly from Mattchew and your own deductions based on those revelations.
So when somebody says "He's made himself suspicious enough for us to vote him off later." That is a huge logical fallacy. If he's made himself suspicious enough NOW, then you must vote him off NOW.
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To make my case a little bit stronger.... I WILL be killed tonight. I have made my power role clear and Mafia will be INSANE not to kill me given that I cannot save myself and nobody has roleclaimed a jailkeeper.
You MUST vote clawtrocity or we will be in EXACTLY the same place as we are right now, only down one and 6/7ths of a townie only up (2/8=)1/4th of a mafia in expectation, since a vote for anybody else is essentially a shot in the dark at this point. Any vote not directed toward clawtrocity is a vote against the town.
Seeing as I'm dead anyway, it would be fair to say that you are either with me or against me. Make my sacrifice worth it
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No, youre not in a totally different position if you lynch a towny on day1. You will still have peoples posts, the way they voted their conversations with eachother. Most importantly you know that the guy that got lynched was a towny and you can reevaluate.
There is also going to be a mafia kill and we get to analyse it.
And my reason isnt that he is useless, my reason is the way he wrote his posts. Im not the best tone reader out there but there is something off about him. Mafia is so much more than confirmed facts.
Youre saying Clwa lied, well you lied too. You claimed vanilla towny early itt. And you even defended your lie itt. Him pointing this out is more than reasonable.
On May 03 2012 00:11 Gummy wrote: To make my case a little bit stronger.... I WILL be killed tonight. I have made my power role clear and Mafia will be INSANE not to kill me given that I cannot save myself and nobody has roleclaimed a jailkeeper.
You MUST vote clawtrocity or we will be in EXACTLY the same place as we are right now, only down one and 6/7ths of a townie only up (2/8=)1/4th of a mafia in expectation, since a vote for anybody else is essentially a shot in the dark at this point. Any vote not directed toward clawtrocity is a vote against the town.
Seeing as I'm dead anyway, it would be fair to say that you are either with me or against me. Make my sacrifice worth it
How many games have you played? For what its worth, in most of my games there were little to no claims on day1, and most claims that got made on day1 were made up and werent killed. A blue player will be intuitively scared to come out with his role like this. He feels like its his duty to his team to do as much as possible. So i hope you understand that discussing the lynch with the implicating that youre the sure nightkill is not an option.
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United States5684 Posts
The only person a medic cannot heal is themselves. They may heal anybody else on any night no restrictions
On May 02 2012 23:48 paschl wrote:
So, how do i do this? ##Vote: Dahdum yes this is how you vote.
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You clearly didn't read or didn't understand any of my game theoretic arguments defending my lie and explaining why Claw's lie was not comparable.
There is nothing categorically wrong with the lie. It's what that lie reveals about the underlying beliefs.
Reading tone in your second language on an internet forum is not a valid source of information in a newbie game.
Your statistic on blue roles not getting killed on day one is ridiculous. It's not conditioned on day 1 contestation of role claims. Given that a blue player (myself) came out with a role on day one means that I have sufficient confidence in my accusation to risk myself for the greater good of the team.
To be honest your reasoning of "I will divine the mafia by analyzing tone" will hold us back far more than it will help us going forward.
Vote the obvious scum. Claw IS scum.
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Is there any way of making an ultimatum in this game? Since I'm not allowed to use a modkill as a bargaining chip, can I say "I will shut up for the rest of the game and post only enough not to get modkilled and vote #nolynch" every day thereafter unless you vote for XXXXX. If so....
I am making an ultimatum here. If Claw is not voted off today, then I will shut up for the rest of the game, only posting enough not to get modkilled. I will vote nolynch every day after this one if Claw is not voted off today. So make your choice between him or me. GL HF folks.
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If that's not allowed, then I retract the content of my previous post. The retraction of my words, however, does not imply a retraction of my intentions.
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As a second condition to my ultimatum, any individual vote not directed at Claw prior to his receiving a majority will be sure not to get a save from me for however few nights that I am alive.
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Wow, is there a way to ignore someone? Just think this trough Gummy, how pro town is what youre doing right now?
And in your posts you say that you hinted at being the medic before Claw claimed, could you point me to the post? And again, how many forum mafia games have you played before? I just want to know how experienced you are.
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If anybody does not understand why I am being so aggressive, please see this link.
Furthermore, the ultimatum serves as a computation simplifier for those players unwilling or unable to run through the logic I have presented. I have reduced the question of "how does Gummy's lie differ from Claw's lie and what can we infer about their intentions based upon those differences" to "Who would we rather have on our team going forward?"
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Gummy please check the rules, in reference to this statement + Show Spoiler +On May 03 2012 00:35 Gummy wrote: Is there any way of making an ultimatum in this game? Since I'm not allowed to use a modkill as a bargaining chip, can I say "I will shut up for the rest of the game and post only enough not to get modkilled and vote #nolynch" every day thereafter unless you vote for XXXXX. If so....
I am making an ultimatum here. If Claw is not voted off today, then I will shut up for the rest of the game, only posting enough not to get modkilled. I will vote nolynch every day after this one if Claw is not voted off today. So make your choice between him or me. GL HF folks. You must play to win.
Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. However, this does not mean that you should try to win by being a jerk to the other players so they all want to quit playing.
This also means that you cannot leave the game without a good reason without a ban. These situations will be dealt with on a case by case basis. PM your host if you need to leave the game.
Also, Firmtofu consider this as your first and final warning about editing. Do not edit your posts for any reason.
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Alright took the time to read everything through carefully, here are my thoughts on things.
FirmTofu - You're looking less and less scummy to me. You had a good case going against Gummy, weren't afraid of being agressive, but he was able to give a semi-good reasoning for the actions you critized.
Clawtrocity - I feel like your emotions get the better of yourself and you are slipping quiet badly because Gummy is attacking you like that. Please reconsider your vote, because you don't have a terrible case going atm. I think you yourself realize that scum won't post/spam that actively in a maffia game, because they would be too afraid of posting too much. Let's say he is scum, then this part makes no sense at all:
At best he's a scum who'll lie and bullshit his way around until eventually getting lynched while his teammate sits in the back and does almost nothing.
Did you even think when you posted this? My answer is certainly no. Mafia wants to survive, not bullshit around and hope everyone will take them for an overactive townie. Even if the Town is falling into that trap you think Gummy has set up, still he's being way too much of a benefit to the town for him to be scum in my eyes.
My conclusion on you is that: a) you're either a Townie who wanted to be a martyr for a real blue role player (hence the role claim) and you are now trying to bait the mafia either more on you, which is horribly failing because Gummy is succesfulf in drawing all the attention to himself. This seems very unlikely. b) you are a blue role, who is convinced Gummy is scum but you can't get out of your words that good or make a good case against him. More likely, but I don't think this is the way, because you look like a smart guy to me. c) you're scum. This is the most likely option, because you have been defensive the entire game (only with your last game have you tried to make a case against Gummy and I believe that's out of entire desperation) and finger pointing to what other people do, so you should be able to those things aswell.
Ange777 - You entirely convinced me Gummy isn't scum with your defense for him. Nice analysis.
paschl - I have no clue at all why you are staying out of the "big" discussion and decided to vote on a complete silent player, please explain why you are suddenly distracted by Dahdum.
- Gummy - 100% Townie, please try to keep the thread spam and poll free.
I have seen that people have posted why I was writing this, will catch up to those posts now I can.
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On May 03 2012 00:35 Gummy wrote: I am making an ultimatum here. If Claw is not voted off today, then I will shut up for the rest of the game, only posting enough not to get modkilled. I will vote nolynch every day after this one if Claw is not voted off today. So make your choice between him or me. GL HF folks.
##vote:Gummy
That ultimatum just pushed Gummy from being an aggressive semi-believable town player to an anti-town scum in my eyes. Threatening town that if we don't do what he wants he won't help anymore? What die-hard town player (as he has tried to make himself look) would just check out because he doesn't get his way? None in my opinion. Sounds like scum trying to save himself.
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The why in my previous post should be a while, sorry about that. I'm sure there are plently more mistakes made there by me.
Back to the game at hand. Gummy, please, don't go for an annoying mode like this. You're just frustrated because noone seems to listen to you. And that is probably right since you spammed like 2 pages full and noone has ever responded except for paschl. Please be patient and wait for people to get active, then they will give their thoughts, critize or agree with your arguments and cast a vote themselves. No need to get into childish behaviour, please.
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United States5684 Posts
Please bold votes type "[b] ##vote: Mattchew[/b]"
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Matriarch, what are your thoughts on the game as of right now? Especially outside of Gummy since you already made a post about him.
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Matriarch, why would he be saving himself when noone has attacked hm yet? He's just getting frustrated at the game and the players because noone is listening to his arguments and therefor tries to seek his salvation into childish play which only frustrates us as the Town but also the mods. I agree that this ultimatum-strategy of him is only causing confusion in the Town, but I don't believe he did that with the purpose to harm the Town.
So the real question would be, are you scum who joins Claw's bandwagon or just a fooled Townie? You are going to need a lot more than it takes to have a strong case and good reason to vote on Gummy imo. To me it just looks like you want to get rid of him atm, that's why I strongly recomend you to think again about that vote and give better arguments why would lynch Gummy.
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This is really extreme Gummy. There could only be two possibilities:
1) You really are the medic and absolutely sure about him lying. 2) Claw is the real medic and you are desperate to kill him before someone reveals you as scum. Although this logic is flawed as everbody would blame you if Claw flipped blue. Or you are playing a huge mindgame and already calculated that possibility? God, this is just soo confusing ...
Anyway, bullying us townies is not the smartest move. It just makes your case against Claw more suspicous, as if you can't win our votes through reason and logical thinking.
What I am most interested in right now is Claw's defense. I'd like to hear some more about his reasoning for lying/or defending himself as the real medic before I cast my vote.
@Paschl:
On May 03 2012 00:42 paschl wrote: And in your posts you say that you hinted at being the medic before Claw claimed, could you point me to the post?
After Claw claimed medic, Gummy voted Claw and then immediately posted the following WITHOUT directly claiming to be medic himself.
On May 01 2012 20:04 Gummy wrote: The way I see it, clawtrocity is: 1.) Useless 2.) A townie who is trying to take the bullet for the real medic. I have no reason to believe there would be two medics. 3.) Scum who is trying to cast away suspicion from himself.
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[g]How much time do we have left until voting ends?[/g]
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Too stupid for BBCode sorry ...
How much time do we have left until voting ends?
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As of right now I believe either Gummy or Claw to be scum because of their conflicting claims. The reason I voted for Gummy and not Claw is because of his desperate behavior his last few posts. I understand that it can be seen as him being frustrated that no one is listening to him but to me threatening us is NOT town play. Because it is only Day one and we have been going over and over the same couple points (i.e. role claiming, and game setup) it has been hard to get a solid read on anyone imo. My vote stands for Gummy right now because of his outrageous anti-town threats.
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United States5684 Posts
DEADLINE IS 00:00 GMT (+00:00)
Votes after this time will not count
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This thread has gotten even more confusing overnight, but I'm going with my analysis so far:
Gummy - Townie, I can't seem him being scum but I don't think he's helping much with the back and forth.
Claw - Unsure, but I stand by my comment earlier that we don't gain by lynching him.
Matriarch - Likely scum, very quiet so far and only analysis was her defense of her Gummy vote, in which she claims he's actually scum.
Paschl - Got caught up in flame war, posts a lot of what-if and theory that doesn't help the game I think. Votes to lynch me, not sure what to think.
FirmTofu - Claimed a role hard to fake, so I don't see the point in voting for him.
Town: Ange77,Demorcef,AcesRequiem
Since Matriarch hasn't contributed much analysis and votes to lynch Gummy, I'm going with her. Sounds like scum keeping a low profile, at worst a townie who won't contribute. Demorcef is also a low poster, but is providing sound analysis. ##vote: Matriarch
My scum suspicion goes from: Matriarch -> Claw -> Paschl
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Since Clawtrocity isn't answering on any of the posts anymore and I'm pretty convinced he is scum for reasons stated above.
##Vote: Clawtrocity
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Votecount:
Clawtrocity (2) - AcesRequiem, Gummy gummy (2)- matriach, clawtrosity Matriarch (1)- dahdum dahdum (1)- paschl
With 9 Alive its 5 to lynch, currently no one is set to be lynch. Please PM me or Mattchew if you see any mistakes. A little over 4 hours until the voting deadline
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We aren't supposed to analyze behavior? I thought I did that with my vote for Gummy. Because of his behavior I voted for him. I don't believe I should post just a list of everyone in the game and tell what I think about them when there are only a few very active players. My list would be short and without any real information that hasn't been stated and re-stated by someone else. I will say again that I believe that either Gummy or Claw are scum. I vote Gummy because of his behavior and threats not to help the rest us with the scum hunt just because he isn't getting his way. Does that not seem like an anti-town stand to take?
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It is not. I am making a credible threat so as to incentivize optimal play. As I explained I am merely trying to simplify computation for those unwilling or unable to walk through my admittedly involved line of reasoning.
My ultimatum is entirely consistent with wanting to help the town via the folk theorem. Seeing as I am very confident that claw is scum, what I do from here on out if people do not lynch claw is irrelevant since we cannot win. Since all outcomes in which claw is not lynched end in the town losing, my voting no lynch is just as useful a vote as any other. Further, since I expect to be targeted the first night anyway, since the mafia would be stupid not to, I would very much prefer that Claw be taken down as well.
Not using my save on somebody who refuses to vote for claw is bait for a reason that is obvious if you think through what has been revealed so far. Even if it were not bait, I would rather there be somebody sympathetic to my reasoning in the morning than otherwise. Mafia would prefer the opposite.
Thus, everything I have said so far is consistent with my interests being aligned with the town's. If my rhetoric is offensive or annoying, be assured that it is intentional.
I will complete this post a little later.
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I propose that we let Gummy, Claw, and Tofu live into the first night. We stand to gain more information that way than by any day 1 lynch that is as rash as their role-claims. Why: + Show Spoiler +Just to put it out there: the setup could hypothetically be 2 medics as the towns power roles. In spite of that, we all seem to agree is likely that at least one of the current medic claims is a lie. (Note that both could be lies.) What do we learn by lynching Claw today? If he flips Medic, then in all likelihood we either see Gummy killed tonight or lynched tomorrow. If Gummy then flips Medic, the town is doomed. If Gummy then flips town, we learn nothing and are in a bad position. If Gummy flips Mafia, then we are in a good position. If we lynch Claw today and he flips Townie? Then again, the town and any vigilante will be compelled to kill Gummy. If Claw flips Mafia, then we cheer and Gummy is trusted but also likely is killed by mafia. Lynching Tofu today produces similar scenarios. Lynching Gummy as Matriach suggests? Well, if Gummy flipped Town then we would have to kill Claw. If Gummy flipped Mafia, then we would trust Claw. But note, that if Gummy dies tonight, we still either kill Claw or have him confirmed on Day 2. If Claw dies tonight, then if he is town we turn against Gummy. If Claw dies tonight and flips Mafia, or if Claw doesn't die, then we can lynch him on Day 2. If Tofu dies tonight and flips Town, we lynch Claw. Now if Gummy is town, the Mafia will be more likely to kill him than Claw. So we stand to confirm or condemn one of Gummy, Claw, or Tofu based on whichever one of them dies. How can the Mafia not kill one of them if all 3 have claimed blue roles? If none of the 3 die and a random townie dies? Then all 3 have to prove their claims on Day 2 and if Tofu gives us a report we let him live for another day, while we either lynch who he claims is red or if his report greens someone then we lynch the least trusted Medic-claimee hoping the medic lives and Tofu provides a second report on Day 3. If these outcomes sound flawed, please let me know. Look, Gummy is playing aggressive, loud, and loose. I understand the logic behind his vote on Claw. But I remain unconvinced that we, today, can be 99% certain Claw is Mafia, or that Claw and Tofu are mafia colluding on their claims. Why would, with only 2 players, the mafia claim to be blue. There is no rational scenario in which the town doesn't lynch someone who claims blue and then lives for another 2 nights. The role claims draw far too much attention and responsibility upon them, especially DT, to be a good rational mafia strategy plan. Mafia want to blend in by 'nodding with the town' not being 'nodded at'. If they indeed turn out to be mafia, they have already lost even if we don't lynch one today. If, however, more likely they are Town either being honest or vanilla townie trying to confuse mafia, we only hurt ourselves by mislynching one of them on Day 1.
Gummy, imo, really hurt himself and, if he is town, the town by making that ultimatum threat. It's hard to trust someone willing to quit on us. It's also hard to keep up with someone who posts so much. You could form just as, if not more so, convincing an argument without spamming every thought you have.
Tofu, whether he's a bad DT or a bad mafia, clearly seemed to believe there would be at least 3 blue roles, which is fairly unlikely when thinking about balance. (At the same time, I'd like to point out to anyone studying paschl's list of previous setups, that there is nothing statistically informative about 6 data points.)
dahdum, at the moment, is Town-ish. His posts have echoed some of my own thought processes, so for the time being I'll overlook his low amount of posts.
Matriarch has failed to post enough actual content for me to place any trust in her yet.
Ange seems very inexperienced but at the same time his/her second post bothers me: + Show Spoiler +On May 01 2012 09:04 Ange777 wrote:Ok, I am a townie. But: Isn't it better to abstain from any roleclaiming? Otherwise isn't it easier to identify the special roles? Furthermore scum could just claim to be regular townies and right now we have no way to prove anything. I would have thought claiming to be a townie is just as suspicious as saying nothing about it but hey, I don't have any experience in this game On May 01 2012 09:12 Ange777 wrote: But then we will just have 9 people claiming to be townie. I don't understand what kind of information you will get from that. if you believe it's better not to claim, why go ahead and claim vanilla townie, and then state that such a claim is useless information? Yet, you don't go crazy when Gummy pressures you; and you then put forward Gummy's medic slip and analyze how Claw appears to be a bad liar. But this: + Show Spoiler +On May 03 2012 01:27 Ange777 wrote:
2) Claw is the real medic and you are desperate to kill him before someone reveals you as scum. Although this logic is flawed as everbody would blame you if Claw flipped blue. Or you are playing a huge mindgame and already calculated that possibility? God, this is just soo confusing ...
yes is illogical and should not have been posted. All in all, I don't currently think we have enough to lynch Ange, but if either Gummy or Ange flip mafia, I believe the other is a reasonable follow-up lynch because Ange seems to be agreeing with and answering for Gummy while trying to distance from Gummy at the same time.
Aces thought that if Claw and Tofu were as claimed it would a dream scenario for the town with Tofu's plan, which makes no sense because I still fail to see how any player imagines that somehow they would live forever in that scenario. Why does Aces beg us to "please believe that he is vanilla townie and not scummy"?
paschl spams at the start, claims townie, then claims he never claimed townie or a role. Well into his spam just posts "This is gonna be fun", great more spam. Fails to thoroughly read the rules and setup. Has posted a few unnecessary lists and then voted for dahdum for not posting much in his opinion (in comparison to paschl and Gummy, everyone is a mime).
As I don't feel I can say 99% someone is mafia, I feel no lynch day 1 is better for us than a mislynch. How often have you seen a Day 1 lynch be mafia and not mislynch? Mafia want us to help them by mislynching the first couple days, why would the mafia draw attention to themselves or lie on day 1 and potentially get caught in the noose's spotlight? ##Vote: No Lynch
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I'm back to answer questions. I had to real the novel written by Sir Gummyington before I could post.
Gummy seems to be familar with WIFOM, but none of the rest of you guys are. So you're all telling me that Gummy is definitely town because he talks a lot. That's interesting because if I was mafia, I'd talk my ass off to make you all think that. I've played Forum Mafia plenty of times and I've been mafia more than once. Every time I'm extremely active, helpful for the town and have even pushed lynches on my own teammates to stay alive.
He's playing a game with your heads and he's winning. On top of that he continues to suggest that my "lie" is more scummy than his "lie". Let's assume for a second that I'm Mafia and what people are saying is true. In what world would a person claim Medic and ask for the detective to claim so I could "heal him". If he died without me healing him you would know that I was lying and you'd be able to lynch me. If however I was really the medic and I pretended to look scummy then the mafia would be able to push a lynch on me. That's only one possibility though. The Mafia could also hide in the shadows and since they see that I'm acting scummy and being close to lynch they'd rather the town take care of me so they take care of someone else. There are so many different possibilities that sticking to one specific one is silly of you guys.
It may not seem like it, but Gummy is protecting me. He is throwing accusations and acting like a crazy person just so the mafia think Gummy is the real medic. They'll shoot him tonight and he'll be a vanilla townie and viola that'll be the end of it. So we go back and forth where we're each calling each other Mafia and the mafia have no idea who to hit. They just know to hit one of us which leaves our detective open to do whatever he wants. So yeah, Gummy might be mafia, but honestly he's probably just a vanilla townie and there's nothing wrong with that because he's trying to protect me. It's an interesting tatic because it prevents the mafia from figuring anything out too fast.
The Mafia is strong because it's an informed minority, but when you take out the informed part it's just 2 guys circlejerking playing whack-a-mole.
The vote on Gummy stays.
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Clawtrocity has already become ambiguous with his language meaning he is backing off from his role claim, without any kind of real justification for why he faked his role claimed in the first case.
tu quoque fallacy
Since all outcomes in which claw is not lynched end in the town losing
Slippery slope fallacy
Is there any way of making an ultimatum in this game? Since I'm not allowed to use a modkill as a bargaining chip, can I say "I will shut up for the rest of the game and post only enough not to get modkilled and vote #nolynch" every day thereafter unless you vote for XXXXX. If so....
I am making an ultimatum here. If Claw is not voted off today, then I will shut up for the rest of the game, only posting enough not to get modkilled. I will vote nolynch every day after this one if Claw is not voted off today. So make your choice between him or me. GL HF folks.
Appeal to authority fallacy
If you're trying to protect me you shouldn't use so many fallacies. The Mafia will catch on to the horrible logic and kill me instead Gummy. Keep trying you'll get it eventually.
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Claw, I don't understand how you can keep your vote on Gummy, while simultaneously saying:
It may not seem like it, but Gummy is protecting me. He is throwing accusations and acting like a crazy person just so the mafia think Gummy is the real medic. They'll shoot him tonight and he'll be a vanilla townie and viola that'll be the end of it. So we go back and forth where we're each calling each other Mafia and the mafia have no idea who to hit. They just know to hit one of us which leaves our detective open to do whatever he wants. So yeah, Gummy might be mafia, but honestly he's probably just a vanilla townie and there's nothing wrong with that because he's trying to protect me. It's an interesting tatic because it prevents the mafia from figuring anything out too fast.
If you really believe that, why continue to vote for his lynch?
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I feel like either nobody is reading my posts or im going crazy. And fwiw this isnt posting much. I usually play 7/2 turbos and a day in those seldomly goes below 100 posts. Were here on a 2 day day1 and we made what? 200 posts? Ill get back itt soon, playing dota2 aorn.
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On May 03 2012 05:40 dahdum wrote:Claw, I don't understand how you can keep your vote on Gummy, while simultaneously saying: Show nested quote +It may not seem like it, but Gummy is protecting me. He is throwing accusations and acting like a crazy person just so the mafia think Gummy is the real medic. They'll shoot him tonight and he'll be a vanilla townie and viola that'll be the end of it. So we go back and forth where we're each calling each other Mafia and the mafia have no idea who to hit. They just know to hit one of us which leaves our detective open to do whatever he wants. So yeah, Gummy might be mafia, but honestly he's probably just a vanilla townie and there's nothing wrong with that because he's trying to protect me. It's an interesting tatic because it prevents the mafia from figuring anything out too fast. If you really believe that, why continue to vote for his lynch?
It's mainly to cause more confusion to the Mafia. Do they believe my words or my actions? Which ever one they believe will have a direct influence on who they target tonight. I can't just let them have the answer I have to hope they fail it.
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But in confusing the mafia you are also confusing the rest of us townies as well. Circular logic.
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So you think he's innocent, but you want to lynch him to distract the mafia?
Standard.
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@DeMorcerf:
While I do understand your logic I don't believe No lynch is better than possibly mislynching. By voting for a lynch we will be able to see who voted on whom and why. No lynch just gives scum an excuse not to make a case against someone.
You are correct that by lynching one of the three potential blue roles we might mislynch. But lynching is the only way to get more information about the motives of every votes. If we just wait for night, scum can pick a target and we only get to know what colour they flipped. With this little information it would be really hard to reveal scum on day 2. If I missed some point, please tell me.
Regarding my role claiming: I thought this was normal seeing all the other players roleclaiming. I merely wanted to state that I don't think it will be of much use. I admit being a first time player I am probably easier to influence so next time being pressured to role claim I will think first and then post
Can you please explain why I should not have posted that?
On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote:Yet, you don't go crazy when Gummy pressures you; and you then put forward Gummy's medic slip and analyze how Claw appears to be a bad liar. But this: + Show Spoiler +On May 03 2012 01:27 Ange777 wrote:
2) Claw is the real medic and you are desperate to kill him before someone reveals you as scum. Although this logic is flawed as everbody would blame you if Claw flipped blue. Or you are playing a huge mindgame and already calculated that possibility? God, this is just soo confusing ...
yes is illogical and should not have been posted.
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On May 03 2012 06:19 Matriarch wrote: But in confusing the mafia you are also confusing the rest of us townies as well. Circular logic.
You don't have night actions to kill people.
And I'm not trying to lynch him. A vote on him is nothing like pushing for a lynch.
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On May 03 2012 06:29 Clawtrocity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 06:19 Matriarch wrote: But in confusing the mafia you are also confusing the rest of us townies as well. Circular logic. You don't have night actions to kill people. And I'm not trying to lynch him. A vote on him is nothing like pushing for a lynch.
I.. but... wha..? huh.
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On May 03 2012 05:44 paschl wrote: I feel like either nobody is reading my posts or im going crazy. And fwiw this isnt posting much. I usually play 7/2 turbos and a day in those seldomly goes below 100 posts. Were here on a 2 day day1 and we made what? 200 posts?
Which post are you referring to Paschl?
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On May 03 2012 05:38 Clawtrocity wrote:Show nested quote +Clawtrocity has already become ambiguous with his language meaning he is backing off from his role claim, without any kind of real justification for why he faked his role claimed in the first case. There is nothing fallacious about my claim. You have yet to provide any reasonable justification for why you role claimed medic and encouraged the detective to reveal him/herself. Slippery slope fallacy This is not a slippery slope. It is an explicit win condition of the game. You are scum. All scum must be voted off for the town to win (unless they decide to suicide). You must be voted off or the town cannot win. Show nested quote +Is there any way of making an ultimatum in this game? Since I'm not allowed to use a modkill as a bargaining chip, can I say "I will shut up for the rest of the game and post only enough not to get modkilled and vote #nolynch" every day thereafter unless you vote for XXXXX. If so....
I am making an ultimatum here. If Claw is not voted off today, then I will shut up for the rest of the game, only posting enough not to get modkilled. I will vote nolynch every day after this one if Claw is not voted off today. So make your choice between him or me. GL HF folks. There is no appeal to authority. There is me asking a question and then me making a contingent statement based on a presumed answer to that question.
I am not protecting you. I am trying to get you voted off. You are either scum or you are trolling this game in a manner that is directly hurting our town making you as bad as scum.
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On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote:I propose that we let Gummy, Claw, and Tofu live into the first night. We stand to gain more information that way than by any day 1 lynch that is as rash as their role-claims. Why: + Show Spoiler +Just to put it out there: the setup could hypothetically be 2 medics as the towns power roles. In spite of that, we all seem to agree is likely that at least one of the current medic claims is a lie. (Note that both could be lies.) What do we learn by lynching Claw today? If he flips Medic, then in all likelihood we either see Gummy killed tonight or lynched tomorrow. If Gummy then flips Medic, the town is doomed. If Gummy then flips town, we learn nothing and are in a bad position. If Gummy flips Mafia, then we are in a good position. If we lynch Claw today and he flips Townie? Then again, the town and any vigilante will be compelled to kill Gummy. If Claw flips Mafia, then we cheer and Gummy is trusted but also likely is killed by mafia. Lynching Tofu today produces similar scenarios. Lynching Gummy as Matriach suggests? Well, if Gummy flipped Town then we would have to kill Claw. If Gummy flipped Mafia, then we would trust Claw. But note, that if Gummy dies tonight, we still either kill Claw or have him confirmed on Day 2. If Claw dies tonight, then if he is town we turn against Gummy. If Claw dies tonight and flips Mafia, or if Claw doesn't die, then we can lynch him on Day 2. If Tofu dies tonight and flips Town, we lynch Claw. Now if Gummy is town, the Mafia will be more likely to kill him than Claw. So we stand to confirm or condemn one of Gummy, Claw, or Tofu based on whichever one of them dies. How can the Mafia not kill one of them if all 3 have claimed blue roles? If none of the 3 die and a random townie dies? Then all 3 have to prove their claims on Day 2 and if Tofu gives us a report we let him live for another day, while we either lynch who he claims is red or if his report greens someone then we lynch the least trusted Medic-claimee hoping the medic lives and Tofu provides a second report on Day 3. If these outcomes sound flawed, please let me know. Look, Gummy is playing aggressive, loud, and loose. I understand the logic behind his vote on Claw. But I remain unconvinced that we, today, can be 99% certain Claw is Mafia, or that Claw and Tofu are mafia colluding on their claims. Why would, with only 2 players, the mafia claim to be blue. There is no rational scenario in which the town doesn't lynch someone who claims blue and then lives for another 2 nights. The role claims draw far too much attention and responsibility upon them, especially DT, to be a good rational mafia strategy plan. Mafia want to blend in by 'nodding with the town' not being 'nodded at'. If they indeed turn out to be mafia, they have already lost even if we don't lynch one today. If, however, more likely they are Town either being honest or vanilla townie trying to confuse mafia, we only hurt ourselves by mislynching one of them on Day 1. Gummy, imo, really hurt himself and, if he is town, the town by making that ultimatum threat. It's hard to trust someone willing to quit on us. It's also hard to keep up with someone who posts so much. You could form just as, if not more so, convincing an argument without spamming every thought you have. Tofu, whether he's a bad DT or a bad mafia, clearly seemed to believe there would be at least 3 blue roles, which is fairly unlikely when thinking about balance. (At the same time, I'd like to point out to anyone studying paschl's list of previous setups, that there is nothing statistically informative about 6 data points.) dahdum, at the moment, is Town-ish. His posts have echoed some of my own thought processes, so for the time being I'll overlook his low amount of posts. Matriarch has failed to post enough actual content for me to place any trust in her yet. Ange seems very inexperienced but at the same time his/her second post bothers me: + Show Spoiler +On May 01 2012 09:04 Ange777 wrote:Ok, I am a townie. But: Isn't it better to abstain from any roleclaiming? Otherwise isn't it easier to identify the special roles? Furthermore scum could just claim to be regular townies and right now we have no way to prove anything. I would have thought claiming to be a townie is just as suspicious as saying nothing about it but hey, I don't have any experience in this game On May 01 2012 09:12 Ange777 wrote: But then we will just have 9 people claiming to be townie. I don't understand what kind of information you will get from that. if you believe it's better not to claim, why go ahead and claim vanilla townie, and then state that such a claim is useless information? Yet, you don't go crazy when Gummy pressures you; and you then put forward Gummy's medic slip and analyze how Claw appears to be a bad liar. But this: + Show Spoiler +On May 03 2012 01:27 Ange777 wrote:
2) Claw is the real medic and you are desperate to kill him before someone reveals you as scum. Although this logic is flawed as everbody would blame you if Claw flipped blue. Or you are playing a huge mindgame and already calculated that possibility? God, this is just soo confusing ...
yes is illogical and should not have been posted. All in all, I don't currently think we have enough to lynch Ange, but if either Gummy or Ange flip mafia, I believe the other is a reasonable follow-up lynch because Ange seems to be agreeing with and answering for Gummy while trying to distance from Gummy at the same time. Aces thought that if Claw and Tofu were as claimed it would a dream scenario for the town with Tofu's plan, which makes no sense because I still fail to see how any player imagines that somehow they would live forever in that scenario. Why does Aces beg us to "please believe that he is vanilla townie and not scummy"? paschl spams at the start, claims townie, then claims he never claimed townie or a role. Well into his spam just posts "This is gonna be fun", great more spam. Fails to thoroughly read the rules and setup. Has posted a few unnecessary lists and then voted for dahdum for not posting much in his opinion (in comparison to paschl and Gummy, everyone is a mime). As I don't feel I can say 99% someone is mafia, I feel no lynch day 1 is better for us than a mislynch. How often have you seen a Day 1 lynch be mafia and not mislynch? Mafia want us to help them by mislynching the first couple days, why would the mafia draw attention to themselves or lie on day 1 and potentially get caught in the noose's spotlight?##Vote: No Lynch
So you're saying "Ok, I agree with your logic on Claw but I don't want to vote him off because he's incriminated himself anyway." You end up in the same situation tomorrow as today. Only you're a townie down. As Ange said, when an obvious Mafia is on the table, you lynch him. You do not wait to lynch him especially when the suspicion of him is public.
I don't think anything Claw has said in the last few pages has made anything approaching sense.
Also, I post a lot because I make long posts with a lot of info. Then I realize I can't edit, so I make amendments. This is how no-edit forum mafia works....
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On May 03 2012 06:33 Ange777 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 05:44 paschl wrote: I feel like either nobody is reading my posts or im going crazy. And fwiw this isnt posting much. I usually play 7/2 turbos and a day in those seldomly goes below 100 posts. Were here on a 2 day day1 and we made what? 200 posts? Which post are you referring to Paschl?
All of them basically. I feel like im playing a solid day1 and all my posts get waved off as spam. Instead there is posts like this:
On May 03 2012 06:45 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 05:38 Clawtrocity wrote:Clawtrocity has already become ambiguous with his language meaning he is backing off from his role claim, without any kind of real justification for why he faked his role claimed in the first case. There is nothing fallacious about my claim. You have yet to provide any reasonable justification for why you role claimed medic and encouraged the detective to reveal him/herself. Since all outcomes in which claw is not lynched end in the town losing Slippery slope fallacy This is not a slippery slope. It is an explicit win condition of the game. You are scum. All scum must be voted off for the town to win (unless they decide to suicide). You must be voted off or the town cannot win. Is there any way of making an ultimatum in this game? Since I'm not allowed to use a modkill as a bargaining chip, can I say "I will shut up for the rest of the game and post only enough not to get modkilled and vote #nolynch" every day thereafter unless you vote for XXXXX. If so....
I am making an ultimatum here. If Claw is not voted off today, then I will shut up for the rest of the game, only posting enough not to get modkilled. I will vote nolynch every day after this one if Claw is not voted off today. So make your choice between him or me. GL HF folks. There is no appeal to authority. There is me asking a question and then me making a contingent statement based on a presumed answer to that question. I am not protecting you. I am trying to get you voted off. You are either scum or you are trolling this game in a manner that is directly hurting our town making you as bad as scum.
I mean... yeah.
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Gummy's in the perfect spot right now. He claims medic after me and accuses me of lying. I accuse him of lying and he does the same right back at me.
When he successfully lynches me and I turn out to be the medic, he'll claim that he was right that I was scummy and I was just a bad player so no fault lies on him. He'll also probably say that he isn't even medic and he was just so sure of his "gut feeling" that I was mafia that he claimed to be medic to get me lynched. It's impossible for me to win in that situation because I'm arguging with a narcissist who's so sure of himself that he's hurting the town around him. All the while the real mafia are laughing their asses off while the town try and kill each other.
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United States5684 Posts
Votecount:
Clawtrocity (2) - AcesRequiem, Gummy gummy (2)- matriach, clawtrosity Matriarch (1)- dahdum dahdum (1)- paschl
No-Lynch (1) - DeMorcerf
With 9 Alive its 5 to lynch, currently no one is set to be lynch. Please PM me or Mattchew if you see any mistakes. A little under 2 hours until the voting deadline
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Ok. Since the number of people not understanding how my ultimatum helps the town is greater than the number of possible mafia, I'm going to explicitly explain how each part of this threat works.
1.) I will be targeted tonight by the Mafia unless they are retarded. It is literally a dominant strategy in expectations at this point to target me. So long as the Mafia believe my extremely obvious role claim, there is no mind game to be played here. It's not like I want to die tonight, but any of you can run through the calculations.
2.) Since I am extremely confident in Claw's being scum, and we cannot win unless we vote off all scum, we need to vote off Claw. If we do not vote off Claw, we will be in the same position tomorrow, with one fewer townie with which to vote of Claw. Once you have identified scum and that scum knows he has been identified (look how Claw is melting down) you need to vote him off. It is a dominant strategy. To vote him off now is strictly better than voting him off tomorrow. You will not have my vote tomorrow because I will be dead. You will not gain any information by not voting him off. You will merely be in the same situation tomorrow with one fewer townie and in all likelihood one fewer power role. If by some retarded coincidence I end up alive tomorrow, there will be no reason for me to vote for anybody except Claw. Unless you are willing to vote off Claw, I am just as well off voting no lynch for the duration of the game until claw is voted off or scum win. This is hardly even a threat. Assuming some positive utility (say 1) for lynching a mafia and a negative utility (say -1) for mislynching, voting for Claw is a utility of 1 - epsilon. Voting for anybody else is 1/7(chance of hitting a mafia at random less Claw and myself) - 6/7(chance of hitting a townie at random less claw and myself) = -5/7. Voting for a no lynch is trivially 0. So obviously, I either vote Claw or no lynch.
3.) I will not save you if you are not voting in my favor: a.) Since somebody has to die, I would prefer the person who gets killed during the night to more likely be somebody who is not able or willing to follow my reasoning. Obviously I believe in my own reasoning enough to prefer that someone who shares my reasoning survive to the following day. b.) I am the person who will die tonight so who I cast my vote to save doesn't matter.
So my ultimatum is simply, as I claimed, a computation simplifier. Choose between me and claw. If you think about it, since I'm going to die tonight anyway with a very high probability, you're choosing between getting rid of a very small fraction of me or a very large fraction of claw.
The choice is so obvious I want to scream.
Here's some logic you guys might comprehend.
Get Rid Of Claw.
It spells out GROC. Groc is pronounced like Grok which is German for comprehend. Do you guys comprehend?
Claw: That's a logical fallacy.
My response: No shit, sherlock.
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On May 03 2012 07:06 Mattchew wrote:
Votecount:
Clawtrocity (2) - AcesRequiem, Gummy gummy (2)- matriach, clawtrosity Matriarch (1)- dahdum dahdum (1)- paschl
No-Lynch (1) - DeMorcerf
With 9 Alive its 5 to lynch, currently no one is set to be lynch. Please PM me or Mattchew if you see any mistakes. A little under 2 hours until the voting deadline Unless somebody changes their vote and the two latecomers vote Claw, you guys are a very suicidal town.
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@Demorcef. Your logic behind your No Lynch is flatly wrong. Rethink your logic and vote Clawtrocity please. Matriarch and Dahdum. Change your vote to me or claw now or your votes are equivalent to No Lynch. If you are a townie, and you apparently believe in LAL, just pick somebody. Your votes are complete cop-outs at this point.
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Is this really how this round is going to go? 2 people get 2 votes, with everybody else getting random votes.
DO PEOPLE REALLY NOT UNDERSTAND HOW MAJORITY VOTING GAMES WORK!?!??!?!!? YOU ARE THROWING YOUR VOTE AWAY UNLESS YOUR VOTE IS GOING TOWARD THE MAJORITY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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I do understand your ultimatum, i just dont agree at all. Why would you counterclaim to a random medic claim early on day1? Why would you force other people to claim their role before that if youre the medic?
The only situation where i could understand and agree with your play is if there was a chance you peeked claw mafia. I also understand that a medic claim in a setup where the roles arent know is easy to make as a wolf. BUT it will get him into endless trouble later. A new villager is way more likely to come up with some plan that sounds good in his head and will go for it.
And yes, i know that youre gonna respond to this with something about your theory being optimal and my arguments being based on nothing. But i have played a few games and ive never seen anything like what youre describing happen.
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Why would you counterclaim to a random medic claim early on day1? Because he's obviously scum. Me for scum is a good trade. It goes from 7 v 2 to 6 v 1. Why would you force other people to claim their role before that if youre the medic? Since I have nonpublic information, I can discern information from role claims that others might not. I've already explained the reason behind putting pressure on people. Forcing people to do things they are not comfortable doing is the easiest way to get them to take belief-revealing actions.
How does my play not make sense. Walk through the sequence I took through my shoes, taking one step at a time. Given the information I took in between posts and given the information I had being the medic, I've acted in a consistent manner the whole way through.
In conclusion, my theory is optimal and your arguments are based on nothing.
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So there is no chance claw makes the medic claim as a vanilla towny?
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*sighh* I still think Tofu is scum, but I have nobody better to use my save on at this point. RNG with a randomly selected distribution, here I go.
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On May 03 2012 07:25 paschl wrote: So there is no chance claw makes the medic claim as a vanilla towny? There is no belief for which that play would be optimal except if he was scum. Think it through and this conclusion is obvious.
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If you're still having trouble, read this post again:
On May 01 2012 09:24 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't really understand the point behind forcing a role claim. Everyone will claim vanilla townie because that's the most common role and it's completely unprovable. It doesn't hide any roles because if everyone claims vanilla townie then everyone is up for attack.
I'll go ahead and say that I don't like that strategy, but regardless I'll give actions a real role to claim. With the possibility of a jailkeeper or another Medic I'm fine in saying that I'm one of the medics.
The best part is the Mafia won't attack me because they'll think I'm a vanilla townie trying to bite the bullet for the town. If the detective wants to claim I'll be here to heal him. We really just need to keep the detective alive for as long as possible because with so many non-power roles we'll be powerless eventually.
I'd be wary of Gummy for being so aggressive so early on. He's most likely trying to accuse other people so if anyone tries to point fingers at him he can claim that they're protecting the person he's pressuring. That's a pretty shady tatic and with his confindence in himself going to his head he might be trouble.
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This has already been discussed but I'm bolding the incriminating portions again.
On May 01 2012 09:24 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't really understand the point behind forcing a role claim. Everyone will claim vanilla townie because that's the most common role and it's completely unprovable. It doesn't hide any roles because if everyone claims vanilla townie then everyone is up for attack.
I'll go ahead and say that I don't like that strategy, but regardless I'll give actions a real role to claim. With the possibility of a jailkeeper or another Medic I'm fine in saying that I'm one of the medics.
The best part is the Mafia won't attack me because they'll think I'm a vanilla townie trying to bite the bullet for the town. If the detective wants to claim I'll be here to heal him. We really just need to keep the detective alive for as long as possible because with so many non-power roles we'll be powerless eventually.
I'd be wary of Gummy for being so aggressive so early on. He's most likely trying to accuse other people so if anyone tries to point fingers at him he can claim that they're protecting the person he's pressuring. That's a pretty shady tatic and with his confindence in himself going to his head he might be trouble.
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On May 03 2012 07:27 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 07:25 paschl wrote: So there is no chance claw makes the medic claim as a vanilla towny? There is no belief for which that play would be optimal except if he was scum. Think it through and this conclusion is obvious.
Drawing nightkills is actually a needed skill for a good villager. If the mafia thinks he is the medic and he draws a nightkill it wouldve been an awesome play. I dont think it should be done every day1 of every game but a post like this in a setup like this should be in a townys range.
Even after reading his post again i dont see it any different. Especially the "If the detective wants to claim I'll be here to heal him." is sooooooo too scumy to be scum.
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THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS BEING "too scummy to be scum." APPEARING SCUMMY ONLY GETS YOU TARGETED IN DAY PLAY. YOU GET NO ADVANTAGE FOR APPEARING SCUMMY EVER.
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SCUM KNOW THE IDENTITY OF THEIR COMRADES. YOU ARE NOT TRICKING SCUM BY PRETENDING TO BE SCUM.
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This is the only real argument I've seen in Claw's defense so far and it is RETARDED.
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Yes, there definitively is. Im not saying he cant be a mafia because he wrote it but who do you think is more afraid to cop hunt itt? A mafia actually posting a phrase like that is so mindboggling i cant see it happen except in the rarest of cases.
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The rarest of cases being he either intentionally wrote it to appear too scumy to be scum or him simply making the mistake of posting it and not catching it in a proofread/not proofreading.
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On May 03 2012 07:37 paschl wrote: Yes, there definitively is. Im not saying he cant be a mafia because he wrote it but who do you think is more afraid to cop hunt itt? A mafia actually posting a phrase like that is so mindboggling i cant see it happen except in the rarest of cases. So you're saying that you can trick the detective into wasting a turn on you by pretending to be scum. This helps the town how?
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Gummy, I think I know what you're doing. Let it be known to posterity that I think its a terrible strategy.
We aren't going to have a lynch today. I think both Claw and Gummy are town, and no one else has enough evidence on top of them for me to even consider lynching them.
Get over yourself Gummy. There is no way you can deduce everyone's alignment from a handful of Day 1 posts. Let's wait a day and see if we get some REAL information.
##vote: No Lynch
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It doesn't matter how he made the mistake. All that matters is that there is no belief a townie could reasonably hold for which saying that would be a best response.
I'm not saying it makes a whole lot of sense for scum to act scummy. I'm saying that there is only one conclusion we can draw from his being scummy. That he is scum.
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On May 03 2012 07:39 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 07:37 paschl wrote: Yes, there definitively is. Im not saying he cant be a mafia because he wrote it but who do you think is more afraid to cop hunt itt? A mafia actually posting a phrase like that is so mindboggling i cant see it happen except in the rarest of cases. So you're saying that you can trick the detective into wasting a turn on you by pretending to be scum. This helps the town how?
Youre not getting what i mean by too scumy to be scum. We have this thing on our forum where outed scum post lolcats when theyre getting lynched as to give nothing away. Its a tradition in the forum. Now someone goes ahead and makes his first post of the game a lolcat. What scum would ever do that? So you could assume he is a towny because a towny is more likely to just go ahead and post it. Similarly ive seen scum post screenshots of something with a seemingly random aim window called "scumchat" open.
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On May 03 2012 07:34 Gummy wrote: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS BEING "too scummy to be scum." APPEARING SCUMMY ONLY GETS YOU TARGETED IN DAY PLAY. YOU GET NO ADVANTAGE FOR APPEARING SCUMMY EVER.
By drawing attention in the daychat I'm being pressured into being lynched. That means killing me at night is stupid because I'll be killed during the day time. It's just as simple as not lynching people who act scummy on purpose and you succeed.
No offense to you, but I do hope you're the one that gets shot because you're not the real medic so losing a vanilla townie isn't so bad. I have to heal Tofu just in case they try to pull any fishy things where they think I'm trying to make them target you so I can heal you at night.
You're almost having a panic attack in the middle of the day just because people don't see something the way you see it. Calm down and look at the situation with open eyes.
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On May 03 2012 07:40 FirmTofu wrote: Gummy, I think I know what you're doing. Let it be known to posterity that I think its a terrible strategy.
We aren't going to have a lynch today. I think both Claw and Gummy are town, and no one else has enough evidence on top of them for me to even consider lynching them.
Get over yourself Gummy. There is no way you can deduce everyone's alignment from a handful of Day 1 posts. Let's wait a day and see if we get some REAL information.
##vote: No Lynch YOU WILL BE IN THE SAME SITUATION TOMORROW AS YOU WILL BE IN TODAY WITH ONE FEWER TOWNIE.
What information do you hope to gain? Let's say you're the detective. You live the night anyway and nobody's voting you off today. You get the night to make your detection anyway. From everybody else's perspective 0 information was gained, since nobody can confirm that you're the detective. The Mafia will not reveal anything by killing one of their own.
CLAW HAS ALL BUT SAID "I AM SCUM" AND YOU GUYS REFUSE TO VOTE HIM. WHAT KIND OF "EVIDENCE" ARE YOU GUYS LOOKING FOR?!?!?!
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Just out of curiosity Gummy, have you played SC2 Mafia?
The strategy you're employing works perfectly there. The one where you just spam your opinion until everyone follows your word.
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On May 03 2012 07:43 Clawtrocity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 07:34 Gummy wrote: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS BEING "too scummy to be scum." APPEARING SCUMMY ONLY GETS YOU TARGETED IN DAY PLAY. YOU GET NO ADVANTAGE FOR APPEARING SCUMMY EVER. By drawing attention in the daychat I'm being pressured into being lynched. That means killing me at night is stupid because I'll be killed during the day time. It's just as simple as not lynching people who act scummy on purpose and you succeed. No offense to you, but I do hope you're the one that gets shot because you're not the real medic so losing a vanilla townie isn't so bad. I have to heal Tofu just in case they try to pull any fishy things where they think I'm trying to make them target you so I can heal you at night. You're almost having a panic attack in the middle of the day just because people don't see something the way you see it. Calm down and look at the situation with open eyes.
Look at this guy changing his story again... He keeps further incriminating himself.
AND WHY YOU NO UNDERSTAND MATHS?!?!?!??!!
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On May 03 2012 07:49 Clawtrocity wrote: Just out of curiosity Gummy, have you played SC2 Mafia?
The strategy you're employing works perfectly there. The one where you just spam your opinion until everyone follows your word. You don't address any points. You misapply randomly taken names of logical fallacies you ripped from wikipedia. Then you change your story. Then you say something nonsensical. Then people defend you for being TOO SCUMMY TO BE SCUM. Then you change your story again.
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On May 03 2012 07:43 Clawtrocity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 07:34 Gummy wrote: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS BEING "too scummy to be scum." APPEARING SCUMMY ONLY GETS YOU TARGETED IN DAY PLAY. YOU GET NO ADVANTAGE FOR APPEARING SCUMMY EVER. By drawing attention in the daychat I'm being pressured into being lynched. That means killing me at night is stupid because I'll be killed during the day time. It's just as simple as not lynching people who act scummy on purpose and you succeed. No offense to you, but I do hope you're the one that gets shot because you're not the real medic so losing a vanilla townie isn't so bad. I have to heal Tofu just in case they try to pull any fishy things where they think I'm trying to make them target you so I can heal you at night. You're almost having a panic attack in the middle of the day just because people don't see something the way you see it. Calm down and look at the situation with open eyes.
Pick any proposed equilibrium path of beliefs. Say that the mafia believe that the townspeople believe that you are too scummy to be scum. You will still get targeted at night.
Say that the mafia believe that the townspeople believe that you are not too scummy to be scum. You will still get targeted at night.
No equilibrium path of beliefs leads "too scummy to be scum" to be a valid strategy. I don't know why I even need to explain this.
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I too suspect Claw, but I don't think we gain enough information from a lynch to overcome the chance he's Town. If we gain no matter what he reveals, I can see it being worthwhile.
What do we gain by lynching claw now? a) Claw reveals Medic: We lose a medic. b) Claw reveals Scum: Win. c) Claw reveals VT: Gummy is medic, mafia very likely kills him.
2 of those scenarios are very bad for us, and I don't think we should take the risk.
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On May 03 2012 07:43 paschl wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 07:39 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 07:37 paschl wrote: Yes, there definitively is. Im not saying he cant be a mafia because he wrote it but who do you think is more afraid to cop hunt itt? A mafia actually posting a phrase like that is so mindboggling i cant see it happen except in the rarest of cases. So you're saying that you can trick the detective into wasting a turn on you by pretending to be scum. This helps the town how? Youre not getting what i mean by too scumy to be scum. We have this thing on our forum where outed scum post lolcats when theyre getting lynched as to give nothing away. Its a tradition in the forum. Now someone goes ahead and makes his first post of the game a lolcat. What scum would ever do that? So you could assume he is a towny because a towny is more likely to just go ahead and post it. Similarly ive seen scum post screenshots of something with a seemingly random aim window called "scumchat" open. You are appealing to an arbitrary psychological conjecture based on anecdotal evidence of people uniformly playing suboptimally. What are you trying to argue. That he is not scum, but that he is trolling?
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That's fine, because you go batshit insane, claim townie, claim medic, vote me, deny my defence, deny logic, argue with everyone not voting me, going insane again, having a panic attack, making an ultimatum, getting progressively more angry, and finally end in this "Fine! I quit you're all bad" mentality.
I'm perfectly fine being in my situation right now.
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I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well.
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On May 03 2012 07:54 dahdum wrote: I too suspect Claw, but I don't think we gain enough information from a lynch to overcome the chance he's Town. If we gain no matter what he reveals, I can see it being worthwhile.
What do we gain by lynching claw now? a) Claw reveals Medic: We lose a medic. b) Claw reveals Scum: Win. c) Claw reveals VT: Gummy is medic, mafia very likely kills him.
2 of those scenarios are very bad for us, and I don't think we should take the risk. You are giving each of these scenarios equal weight as though you just appeared in this thread and haven't read anything Claw has posted... or any of my previous 5 posts. b.) is Much more likely than the other two. and a.) is an epsilon probability.
You are also overstating the marginal impact of case c.) . I am dead anyway tonight. The Mafia would be insane not to kill me regardless of Claw's status.
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On May 03 2012 07:57 Ange777 wrote: I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well.
That one color won't be of any use since the Mafia won't kill themselves.
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On May 03 2012 07:55 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 07:43 paschl wrote:On May 03 2012 07:39 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 07:37 paschl wrote: Yes, there definitively is. Im not saying he cant be a mafia because he wrote it but who do you think is more afraid to cop hunt itt? A mafia actually posting a phrase like that is so mindboggling i cant see it happen except in the rarest of cases. So you're saying that you can trick the detective into wasting a turn on you by pretending to be scum. This helps the town how? Youre not getting what i mean by too scumy to be scum. We have this thing on our forum where outed scum post lolcats when theyre getting lynched as to give nothing away. Its a tradition in the forum. Now someone goes ahead and makes his first post of the game a lolcat. What scum would ever do that? So you could assume he is a towny because a towny is more likely to just go ahead and post it. Similarly ive seen scum post screenshots of something with a seemingly random aim window called "scumchat" open. You are appealing to an arbitrary psychological conjecture based on anecdotal evidence of people uniformly playing suboptimally. What are you trying to argue. That he is not scum, but that he is trolling?
You could also call it experience but ok. And i said it before, he could be a towny just trying to take a bullet for a blue role. I said before that its an easy play for scum but the mafia doesnt know the roles either. So its not a bad play for a towny to claim medic on day1 in this setup. Especially since theyre not gonna find the detective on n1 (ok the could randomly hit him). Again, how many actual games of werewolf have you played before?
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On May 03 2012 07:57 Ange777 wrote: I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well.
This.
All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions.
As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check.
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On May 03 2012 08:01 paschl wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 07:55 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 07:43 paschl wrote:On May 03 2012 07:39 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 07:37 paschl wrote: Yes, there definitively is. Im not saying he cant be a mafia because he wrote it but who do you think is more afraid to cop hunt itt? A mafia actually posting a phrase like that is so mindboggling i cant see it happen except in the rarest of cases. So you're saying that you can trick the detective into wasting a turn on you by pretending to be scum. This helps the town how? Youre not getting what i mean by too scumy to be scum. We have this thing on our forum where outed scum post lolcats when theyre getting lynched as to give nothing away. Its a tradition in the forum. Now someone goes ahead and makes his first post of the game a lolcat. What scum would ever do that? So you could assume he is a towny because a towny is more likely to just go ahead and post it. Similarly ive seen scum post screenshots of something with a seemingly random aim window called "scumchat" open. You are appealing to an arbitrary psychological conjecture based on anecdotal evidence of people uniformly playing suboptimally. What are you trying to argue. That he is not scum, but that he is trolling? You could also call it experience but ok. And i said it before, he could be a towny just trying to take a bullet for a blue role. I said before that its an easy play for scum but the mafia doesnt know the roles either. So its not a bad play for a towny to claim medic on day1 in this setup. Especially since theyre not gonna find the detective on n1 (ok the could randomly hit him). Again, how many actual games of werewolf have you played before? So now you don't think he's too scummy to be scum.
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On May 03 2012 08:02 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 08:01 paschl wrote:On May 03 2012 07:55 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 07:43 paschl wrote:On May 03 2012 07:39 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 07:37 paschl wrote: Yes, there definitively is. Im not saying he cant be a mafia because he wrote it but who do you think is more afraid to cop hunt itt? A mafia actually posting a phrase like that is so mindboggling i cant see it happen except in the rarest of cases. So you're saying that you can trick the detective into wasting a turn on you by pretending to be scum. This helps the town how? Youre not getting what i mean by too scumy to be scum. We have this thing on our forum where outed scum post lolcats when theyre getting lynched as to give nothing away. Its a tradition in the forum. Now someone goes ahead and makes his first post of the game a lolcat. What scum would ever do that? So you could assume he is a towny because a towny is more likely to just go ahead and post it. Similarly ive seen scum post screenshots of something with a seemingly random aim window called "scumchat" open. You are appealing to an arbitrary psychological conjecture based on anecdotal evidence of people uniformly playing suboptimally. What are you trying to argue. That he is not scum, but that he is trolling? You could also call it experience but ok. And i said it before, he could be a towny just trying to take a bullet for a blue role. I said before that its an easy play for scum but the mafia doesnt know the roles either. So its not a bad play for a towny to claim medic on day1 in this setup. Especially since theyre not gonna find the detective on n1 (ok the could randomly hit him). Again, how many actual games of werewolf have you played before? So now you don't think he's too scummy to be scum. wat?
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On May 03 2012 08:02 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 07:57 Ange777 wrote: I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well.
This. All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions. As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check. Quote the nonsense please. Just because something is in all caps and bold doesn't make it nonsense. I get the feeling that at least 4 of our players aren't reading. YOU GUYS COME ON BOLDED CAPITALIZED TEXT WITH THE TONE OF ANGER IS EASIER TO PICK OUT of a wall of text.
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On May 03 2012 08:04 paschl wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 08:02 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 08:01 paschl wrote:On May 03 2012 07:55 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 07:43 paschl wrote:On May 03 2012 07:39 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 07:37 paschl wrote: Yes, there definitively is. Im not saying he cant be a mafia because he wrote it but who do you think is more afraid to cop hunt itt? A mafia actually posting a phrase like that is so mindboggling i cant see it happen except in the rarest of cases. So you're saying that you can trick the detective into wasting a turn on you by pretending to be scum. This helps the town how? Youre not getting what i mean by too scumy to be scum. We have this thing on our forum where outed scum post lolcats when theyre getting lynched as to give nothing away. Its a tradition in the forum. Now someone goes ahead and makes his first post of the game a lolcat. What scum would ever do that? So you could assume he is a towny because a towny is more likely to just go ahead and post it. Similarly ive seen scum post screenshots of something with a seemingly random aim window called "scumchat" open. You are appealing to an arbitrary psychological conjecture based on anecdotal evidence of people uniformly playing suboptimally. What are you trying to argue. That he is not scum, but that he is trolling? You could also call it experience but ok. And i said it before, he could be a towny just trying to take a bullet for a blue role. I said before that its an easy play for scum but the mafia doesnt know the roles either. So its not a bad play for a towny to claim medic on day1 in this setup. Especially since theyre not gonna find the detective on n1 (ok the could randomly hit him). Again, how many actual games of werewolf have you played before? So now you don't think he's too scummy to be scum. wat? You're not acknowledging or rebutting my claims. You are making an orthogonal claim that you are experienced and that you have experienced such play. Is it really too hard to say something like "link me to a source" or "I don't follow your logic, could you try to explain in a way that uses less jargon?" I'm a random person on the internet with extensive training in game theory. You don't have to "win" an argument with me.
I am a townie and I want to win. You can "win" your argument with me by changing your vote to Claw.
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I am a townie
Freudian Slip.
I knew you weren't a medic.
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On May 03 2012 08:02 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 07:57 Ange777 wrote: I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well.
This. All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions. As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check. You say "This." yet you seem to entirely disagree with the text you quoted. This makes me doubt your reading comprehension abilities or your allegiance.
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On May 03 2012 08:09 Clawtrocity wrote:Freudian Slip. I knew you weren't a medic. That doesn't even make sense. I've used that phrase multiple times before. I make sure to prefix the word "townie" with the modifier "Vanilla" for disambiguation.
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Just for evidence, here's a link to my word choice.
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On May 03 2012 08:11 Gummy wrote:Just for evidence, here's a link to my word choice. ctrl-f "townie"
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Dude i study computer science, ive posted on english messaged boards for the better part of 13 years. I understand your theory i just dont think its applicable in a game with this much imperfect information.
You just answered my post by turning words i never used around to jump at me.
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On May 03 2012 08:12 paschl wrote: Dude i study computer science, ive posted on english messaged boards for the better part of 13 years. I understand your theory i just dont think its applicable in a game with this much imperfect information.
You just answered my post by turning words i never used around to jump at me. You're still making irrelevant points. I'm glad you've posted on "english messaged boards" for the better part of 13 years. If you understood my theory you would know that it was particularly devised specifically for dynamic games of imperfect information. And game theory and computer science have intersections in incentive compatibility and mechanism design, but not much else. I know because I double major in these two fields.
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45 minutes to change your votes or you will be a medic down, none the wiser and onto day 2.
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##VOTE: Gummy
pure spitevote. id rather kill the medic than go on and play day2 with an obnoxiously arogant, self centered game theory whiz who thinks he is a genius.
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On May 03 2012 08:14 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 08:12 paschl wrote: Dude i study computer science, ive posted on english messaged boards for the better part of 13 years. I understand your theory i just dont think its applicable in a game with this much imperfect information.
You just answered my post by turning words i never used around to jump at me. You're still making irrelevant points. I'm glad you've posted on "english messaged boards" for the better part of 13 years. If you understood my theory you would know that it was particularly devised specifically for dynamic games of imperfect information. And game theory and computer science have intersections in incentive compatibility and mechanism design, but not much else. I know because I double major in these two fields. See link if you are interested in learning more.
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On May 03 2012 08:23 paschl wrote: ##VOTE: Gummy
pure spitevote. id rather kill the medic than go on and play day2 with an obnoxiously arogant, self centered game theory whiz who thinks he is a genius. That's grounds for a modkill, correct?
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On May 03 2012 08:09 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 08:02 FirmTofu wrote:On May 03 2012 07:57 Ange777 wrote: I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well.
This. All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions. As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check. You say "This." yet you seem to entirely disagree with the text you quoted. This makes me doubt your reading comprehension abilities or your allegiance. I should have explained my position on his quote in detail. I agreed with the facts, but not the eventual conclusion drawn from it(whether it was good or bad). I think it's better to Let one townie die at night, then to be lynching one AND letting one die.
1 townie dead is better than 2 townies dead. Pretty simple concept.
Now you may argue that we will get some information about me and you if we lynch Claw, but I disagree. We still haven't had a night with night actions yet, so we don't have any contradictory claims.
No matter what Claw flips, our claims are still independent of his. If you think double medic is somehow less likely than any other combination of blue roles, that is your prerogative. I will not jump to that conclusion. Therefore, Claw is not an information lynch and we will not be better off lynching him unless he is scum.
Evidence for Claw being scum: -Gummy counter-claims medic after Claw claims it. -Gummy thinks Claw is scum.
Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie: -Claw is a troll.
Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie: -Claw claimed medic.
Conclusion: We don't actually know anything and anyone who says he has the game figured out at this point is dead-wrong.
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On May 03 2012 08:26 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 08:09 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 08:02 FirmTofu wrote:On May 03 2012 07:57 Ange777 wrote: I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well.
This. All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions. As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check. You say "This." yet you seem to entirely disagree with the text you quoted. This makes me doubt your reading comprehension abilities or your allegiance. I should have explained my position on his quote in detail. I agreed with the facts, but not the eventual conclusion drawn from it(whether it was good or bad). I think it's better to Let one townie die at night, then to be lynching one AND letting one die. 1 townie dead is better than 2 townies dead. Pretty simple concept. Now you may argue that we will get some information about me and you if we lynch Claw, but I disagree. We still haven't had a night with night actions yet, so we don't have any contradictory claims. No matter what Claw flips, our claims are still independent of his. If you think double medic is somehow less likely than any other combination of blue roles, that is your prerogative. I will not jump to that conclusion. Therefore, Claw is not an information lynch and we will not be better off lynching him unless he is scum. Evidence for Claw being scum:-Gummy counter-claims medic after Claw claims it. -Gummy thinks Claw is scum. Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie:-Claw is a troll. Evidence for Claw being medic:-Claw claimed medic. Conclusion:We don't actually know anything and anyone who says he has the game figured out at this point is dead-wrong. FIXED!
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On May 03 2012 08:26 paschl wrote: god i hope so. If you're going to vote for me, then do so not out of spite and make up a reason. People call me childish, but at every point in the game my actions have been consistent with the objective of the town's eventual victory. Don't blatantly make a vote for me and then admit to it being out of spite.
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On May 03 2012 08:27 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 08:26 FirmTofu wrote:On May 03 2012 08:09 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 08:02 FirmTofu wrote:On May 03 2012 07:57 Ange777 wrote: I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well.
This. All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions. As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check. You say "This." yet you seem to entirely disagree with the text you quoted. This makes me doubt your reading comprehension abilities or your allegiance. I should have explained my position on his quote in detail. I agreed with the facts, but not the eventual conclusion drawn from it(whether it was good or bad). I think it's better to Let one townie die at night, then to be lynching one AND letting one die. 1 townie dead is better than 2 townies dead. Pretty simple concept. Now you may argue that we will get some information about me and you if we lynch Claw, but I disagree. We still haven't had a night with night actions yet, so we don't have any contradictory claims. No matter what Claw flips, our claims are still independent of his. If you think double medic is somehow less likely than any other combination of blue roles, that is your prerogative. I will not jump to that conclusion. Therefore, Claw is not an information lynch and we will not be better off lynching him unless he is scum. Evidence for Claw being scum:-Gummy counter-claims medic after Claw claims it. -Gummy thinks Claw is scum. -Gummy has used careful and stepwise game theoretic logic that you can freely examine to further the claim that Claw's play is not consistent with any townie objective. Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie:-Claw is a troll. Evidence for Claw being medic:-Claw claimed medic. Conclusion:We don't actually know anything and anyone who says he has the game figured out at this point is dead-wrong. FIXED!
None of your evidence includes any of my painstakingly crafted game theoretic models.
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I should have explained my position on his quote in detail. I agreed with the facts, but not the eventual conclusion drawn from it(whether it was good or bad). I think it's better to Let one townie die at night, then to be lynching one AND letting one die.
1 townie dead is better than 2 townies dead. Pretty simple concept.
Now you may argue that we will get some information about me and you if we lynch Claw, but I disagree. We still haven't had a night with night actions yet, so we don't have any contradictory claims.
No matter what Claw flips, our claims are still independent of his. If you think double medic is somehow less likely than any other combination of blue roles, that is your prerogative. I will not jump to that conclusion. Therefore, Claw is not an information lynch and we will not be better off lynching him unless he is scum.
Evidence for Claw being scum: -Gummy counter-claims medic after Claw claims it. -Gummy thinks Claw is scum. -Gummy has used careful and stepwise game theoretic logic that you can freely examine to further the claim that Claw's play is not consistent with any townie objective.
Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie: -Claw is a troll.
Evidence for Claw being medic: -Claw claimed medic.
Conclusion: We don't actually know anything and anyone who says he has the game figured out at this point is dead-wrong.
Oops. Reposting previous post without spoilers so you can see my asinine insertion.
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On May 03 2012 08:30 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 08:27 FirmTofu wrote:On May 03 2012 08:26 FirmTofu wrote:On May 03 2012 08:09 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 08:02 FirmTofu wrote:On May 03 2012 07:57 Ange777 wrote: I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well.
This. All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions. As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check. You say "This." yet you seem to entirely disagree with the text you quoted. This makes me doubt your reading comprehension abilities or your allegiance. I should have explained my position on his quote in detail. I agreed with the facts, but not the eventual conclusion drawn from it(whether it was good or bad). I think it's better to Let one townie die at night, then to be lynching one AND letting one die. 1 townie dead is better than 2 townies dead. Pretty simple concept. Now you may argue that we will get some information about me and you if we lynch Claw, but I disagree. We still haven't had a night with night actions yet, so we don't have any contradictory claims. No matter what Claw flips, our claims are still independent of his. If you think double medic is somehow less likely than any other combination of blue roles, that is your prerogative. I will not jump to that conclusion. Therefore, Claw is not an information lynch and we will not be better off lynching him unless he is scum. Evidence for Claw being scum:-Gummy counter-claims medic after Claw claims it. -Gummy thinks Claw is scum. -Gummy has used careful and stepwise game theoretic logic that you can freely examine to further the claim that Claw's play is not consistent with any townie objective. Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie:-Claw is a troll. Evidence for Claw being medic:-Claw claimed medic. Conclusion:We don't actually know anything and anyone who says he has the game figured out at this point is dead-wrong. FIXED! None of your evidence includes any of my painstakingly crafted game theoretic models. That's probably because I see no reason to apply your painstakingly crafted game theoretic models to this game. This is a game that is dependent more on psychology than anything else. As you said, it is a game of limited information and we should acknowledge that.
I see no reason to believe you can model the individual psychologies of all players with your extensive knowledge of game theory. Bragging about your major isn't exactly helping your case.
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On May 03 2012 08:28 Gummy wrote:If you're going to vote for me, then do so not out of spite and make up a reason. People call me childish, but at every point in the game my actions have been consistent with the objective of the town's eventual victory. Don't blatantly make a vote for me and then admit to it being out of spite.
no. i dont function in the atmosphere youre creating so youre detrimental to my game. spite.
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Since I appear to have trouble communicating myself clearly, please see this link for further information on the nature of the analysis I am considering.
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I don't see how being medic and claiming medic hurt my chances of winning when the mafia are quite aware of a thing called WIFOM. By virtue of me claiming medic they don't think I'm medic at all and I'm allowed to heal whomever I please.
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On May 03 2012 08:33 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 08:30 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 08:27 FirmTofu wrote:On May 03 2012 08:26 FirmTofu wrote:On May 03 2012 08:09 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 08:02 FirmTofu wrote:On May 03 2012 07:57 Ange777 wrote: I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well.
This. All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions. As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check. You say "This." yet you seem to entirely disagree with the text you quoted. This makes me doubt your reading comprehension abilities or your allegiance. I should have explained my position on his quote in detail. I agreed with the facts, but not the eventual conclusion drawn from it(whether it was good or bad). I think it's better to Let one townie die at night, then to be lynching one AND letting one die. 1 townie dead is better than 2 townies dead. Pretty simple concept. Now you may argue that we will get some information about me and you if we lynch Claw, but I disagree. We still haven't had a night with night actions yet, so we don't have any contradictory claims. No matter what Claw flips, our claims are still independent of his. If you think double medic is somehow less likely than any other combination of blue roles, that is your prerogative. I will not jump to that conclusion. Therefore, Claw is not an information lynch and we will not be better off lynching him unless he is scum. Evidence for Claw being scum:-Gummy counter-claims medic after Claw claims it. -Gummy thinks Claw is scum. -Gummy has used careful and stepwise game theoretic logic that you can freely examine to further the claim that Claw's play is not consistent with any townie objective. Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie:-Claw is a troll. Evidence for Claw being medic:-Claw claimed medic. Conclusion:We don't actually know anything and anyone who says he has the game figured out at this point is dead-wrong. FIXED! None of your evidence includes any of my painstakingly crafted game theoretic models. That's probably because I see no reason to apply your painstakingly crafted game theoretic models to this game. This is a game that is dependent more on psychology than anything else. As you said, it is a game of limited information and we should acknowledge that. I see no reason to believe you can model the individual psychologies of all players with your extensive knowledge of game theory. Bragging about your major isn't exactly helping your case.
I cannot model the individual psychologies. I can make assumptions like "Townspeople want to win by eliminating Mafia" and "Mafia want to win by eliminating Townspeople." From there I can make assumptions such as "If a townie wants to win, he or she will take actions that should maximize the probability of winning" and vice versa.
If you think that this type of modeling is outside the realm of game theory, please see the link I posted above. The notation and terminology used is a little excessive, but the insights are very well-rooted in common sense.
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See, the main reason I don't think your game theoretic models apply to this game is because I am a town detective and your game theoretic models directly oppose this fact.
Why would I believe they work on Claw if they don't work on me?
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I had really hoped to get something more that would "prove" Claw or Gummy to be scum.
I still believe that no lynch won't do us any good. As of now I am leaning towards voting on Claw. Gummys tactic is simply suicidal if Claw flips and doesn't turn out to be scum. I thought about it and simply can't believe that scum would risk that much just to get someone who claims to be medic and whom most of us are unsure about.
Please reconsider your votes guys.
##Vote: Clawtrocity
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On May 03 2012 08:36 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't see how being medic and claiming medic hurt my chances of winning when the mafia are quite aware of a thing called WIFOM. By virtue of me claiming medic they don't think I'm medic at all and I'm allowed to heal whomever I please. Here's a simplified model.
Mafia have no other information to work with than your claim. I assume they are expectation maximizing. Presume they believe you have a 50/50 chance of telling the truth. Your chance of being the medic from their perspective is now 50%. This is higher than the 1/7 chance you had before (assuming nobody got voted off in day play). It would be a dominant strategy for them to target you.
Fortunately, you are not a medic and, as scum,you will be the one targeting me. And since nobody is willing to vote you off, I sincerely hope you follow your own twisted suboptimal logic and invent some WIFOM excuse for not lynching me.
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Additionally, you seem to distance your activities from ours as if you are somehow confirmed town and no one should doubt your alignment.
Have you tried applying your game theory models to yourself? You seem to be voting Claw after doing the exact same thing you said was scummy about him: claiming medic.
At least I am consistent in my actions. I think both you and Claw are town. However, you are not. If Slaw is scum by your logic, then you must be scum as well. You quite literally pulled the exact same gambit he did.
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On May 03 2012 08:39 FirmTofu wrote: See, the main reason I don't think your game theoretic models apply to this game is because I am a town detective and your game theoretic models directly oppose this fact.
Why would I believe they work on Claw if they don't work on me? So you reveal Detective after medic reveals himself with full knowledge that medic cannot protect himself. How would this even be reasonable play if the medic could protect himself? I've already explained this several times and you have yet to come up with a valid answer as to why you would reveal yourself following Claw's revelation unless you two communicated and planned it ahead of time.
Tell us what your belief was that made you think in that moment that claiming detective was a wise thing to do.
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On May 03 2012 08:43 FirmTofu wrote: Additionally, you seem to distance your activities from ours as if you are somehow confirmed town and no one should doubt your alignment.
Have you tried applying your game theory models to yourself? You seem to be voting Claw after doing the exact same thing you said was scummy about him: claiming medic.
At least I am consistent in my actions. I think both you and Claw are town. However, you are not. If Slaw is scum by your logic, then you must be scum as well. You quite literally pulled the exact same gambit he did. I've run through this example many times already, but for the sake of dumb hope I'll do it again. My revelation of medic was chiefly to call out Claw's 100% scummy behavior with the anticipation that getting rid of a scum on day 1 in exchange for medic on night 1 is a good trade. It IS a good trade. There's nothing inconsistent about that.
Initially claiming vanilla townie is a valid strategy regardless of role or alignment. There's nothing inconsistent about that.
Where are you claiming inconsistencies?
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8 more minutes. Cool beans.
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On May 03 2012 08:45 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 08:39 FirmTofu wrote: See, the main reason I don't think your game theoretic models apply to this game is because I am a town detective and your game theoretic models directly oppose this fact.
Why would I believe they work on Claw if they don't work on me? So you reveal Detective after medic reveals himself with full knowledge that medic cannot protect himself. How would this even be reasonable play if the medic could protect himself? I've already explained this several times and you have yet to come up with a valid answer as to why you would reveal yourself following Claw's revelation unless you two communicated and planned it ahead of time. Tell us what your belief was that made you think in that moment that claiming detective was a wise thing to do. My reasoning was that because the medic had already decided to reveal, I might as well give him a target to heal. Either way, I don't affect his chances of being killed, I only increased my chances of surviving at night.
If Claw flips scum, as you say he will, I am still in a good position because the medic is hidden and I can begin informing town of my results.
If Claw flips Vanilla Townie, then the medic is safely hidden, and again I am still in a great position going forward.
If Claw flips Medic, then we are in trouble. However, according to you this is impossible, so I have nothing to worry about.
Like I said before, claiming detective was a win-win situation. That's why I did it.
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Mafia have no other information to work with than your claim. I assume they are expectation maximizing. Presume they believe you have a 50/50 chance of telling the truth. Your chance of being the medic from their perspective is now 50%. This is higher than the 1/7 chance you had before (assuming nobody got voted off in day play). It would be a dominant strategy for them to target you.
Yes, but the mafia aren't looking at it like a 50% chance because they have to take into account the fact that this game is called Mafia and lying is part of the game. That lowers their chance to 25% because I could lying both ways.
Then they have to take into account that I might be lying and what other targets they could hit instead of me. That lowers my chance to be attacked down to 3.5% chance. Which is 25% of the original 14% that I could have been attacked for.
This math thing is pretty cool.
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On May 03 2012 08:52 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 08:45 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 08:39 FirmTofu wrote: See, the main reason I don't think your game theoretic models apply to this game is because I am a town detective and your game theoretic models directly oppose this fact.
Why would I believe they work on Claw if they don't work on me? So you reveal Detective after medic reveals himself with full knowledge that medic cannot protect himself. How would this even be reasonable play if the medic could protect himself? I've already explained this several times and you have yet to come up with a valid answer as to why you would reveal yourself following Claw's revelation unless you two communicated and planned it ahead of time. Tell us what your belief was that made you think in that moment that claiming detective was a wise thing to do. My reasoning was that because the medic had already decided to reveal, I might as well give him a target to heal. Either way, I don't affect his chances of being killed, I only increased my chances of surviving at night. If Claw flips scum, as you say he will, I am still in a good position because the medic is hidden and I can begin informing town of my results. If Claw flips Vanilla Townie, then the medic is safely hidden, and again I am still in a great position going forward. If Claw flips Medic, then we are in trouble. However, according to you this is impossible, so I have nothing to worry about. Like I said before, claiming detective was a win-win situation. That's why I did it. Your analysis is wrong on at least 2 levels. 1.) Once Claw has claimed medic, he has made himself the single target (if he is not scum). You gain nothing by revealing except for a certain turn 2 death. Assuming rational night play by Mafia, you would've had a 1/6 chance of dying night 2. Now you have a 1 in 1 chance of dying night 2, since the medic is dead.
2.) If Claw flips scum, as I say he will, you are screwed because I am the medic and I will be killed tonight. Even if I am foolish enough to use my save on you, you will still die on night 2.
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8PM. Nobody changed their votes except Ange777. Paschl ragequit.
Claw and Tofu have made quite a case against themselves with their nonsense. Whatevz.
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United States5684 Posts
Night 1 "We got no one for you sheriff," said the town.
No-one was lynched! It is now Night 1. Night is 24 hours PM me all night actions and not Mementoss
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Double reminder do NOT PM any night actions to me (Mementoss) please and thank you.
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Oh crap Matriarch is female too?
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I had great fun playing with all of you day 1. Sorry for my aggressiveness ^_^. I think you are all wonderful people and I would like to offer you many hugs! ◕ ‿‿ ◕
Thanks again all of you! <3
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Does it matter that I am female?
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There is nightposting? I cant take another 24hours of this. Ill be back when the next day is called,.
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On May 03 2012 09:58 Matriarch wrote: Does it matter that I am female? Yes! If at some point in the future there are gene splicing therapies an my Y-chromosome somehow gets corrupted, I will know not to ask you for a DNA transplant. =3
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United States5684 Posts
Night Posting is 100% allowed
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This is fucking terrible. We gain NOTHING from this no-lynch, we will just have to play day 2 with 1 Townie (maybe even a blue). This is not looking good for the town.
On May 03 2012 08:52 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 08:45 Gummy wrote:On May 03 2012 08:39 FirmTofu wrote: See, the main reason I don't think your game theoretic models apply to this game is because I am a town detective and your game theoretic models directly oppose this fact.
Why would I believe they work on Claw if they don't work on me? So you reveal Detective after medic reveals himself with full knowledge that medic cannot protect himself. How would this even be reasonable play if the medic could protect himself? I've already explained this several times and you have yet to come up with a valid answer as to why you would reveal yourself following Claw's revelation unless you two communicated and planned it ahead of time. Tell us what your belief was that made you think in that moment that claiming detective was a wise thing to do. My reasoning was that because the medic had already decided to reveal, I might as well give him a target to heal. Either way, I don't affect his chances of being killed, I only increased my chances of surviving at night. If Claw flips scum, as you say he will, I am still in a good position because the medic is hidden and I can begin informing town of my results.
If Claw flips Vanilla Townie, then the medic is safely hidden, and again I am still in a great position going forward.If Claw flips Medic, then we are in trouble. However, according to you this is impossible, so I have nothing to worry about. Like I said before, claiming detective was a win-win situation. That's why I did it.
How are you so sure the medic will support you, even after people have called your play scummy and irrational? Even if Gummy isn't the medic, you still have no 100% guarantee the medic will heal you the night after.
Clawtrocity, you think Gummy is protecting you with his counterclaim and accuesitions he throws at you. But you're tired of this circlejerk between you both and decide to cast a vote on him, yet you are sure he is Town and you state that to a fellow player, but still don't withdraw your vote? And even then you keep giving arguments and critize Gummy on his points he makes to you (for example the freudian slip and the math-war you have going on there), even though you think of yourself you are in a perfect position and cannot be harmed at all, just because he is protecting you. I have no idea how you even CAME UP with this theory, but I hope you are starting to believe this is complete crap you're spitting. At least I can safely say you are only causing confusing in the Town, at worse I can say you're 99% scum. Please convince me otherwise.
Gummy, please chill out and try to convince the Town of your arguments instead of posting heavy-emotional influenced arguments that makes no sense at all and make people not take you serious. I am your side atm in the fact that Claw is scum, but for complete other reasons (i.e. his confusing play that helps the town NOTHING at all).
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How about getting here and changing something when it matters instead of coming a day late and complain? And since we went no lynch day1 we need another no lynch somewhere down the line unless we sweep it. Im still here but i dont see any good coming from me making any more posts as long as Gummy is alive.
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On May 02 2012 19:48 Gummy wrote:@Observers: How am I doing? :D Poll: How Pro is Gummy?Crazy pretentious douchebag. (10) 56% Obvious scum is obvious. (4) 22% Greatest natural to ever play TLM. (3) 17% Kinda schizo. (1) 6% 18 total votes Your vote: How Pro is Gummy? (Vote): Obvious scum is obvious. (Vote): Crazy pretentious douchebag. (Vote): Kinda schizo. (Vote): Greatest natural to ever play TLM.
just an FYI you will never have the best first game at TLM, because that honor is mine
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Please keep your comments till after the game if you are not currently playing in this game.
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Aces, you should have been there earlier
On May 04 2012 04:47 paschl wrote: And since we went no lynch day1 we need another no lynch somewhere down the line unless we sweep it.
Could you explain that Paschl? Why would we need another no lynch?
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On May 04 2012 06:10 Ange777 wrote:Aces, you should have been there earlier Show nested quote +On May 04 2012 04:47 paschl wrote: And since we went no lynch day1 we need another no lynch somewhere down the line unless we sweep it. Could you explain that Paschl? Why would we need another no lynch?
Tomorrow itll be 6-2. If we keep going at the usual rate (1 lynch 1 nightkill) we will end up in a situation where were at 4-2 or 3-1 somewhere down the line where no lynch is the standard play because a mislynch means a loss and no lynch means one more nightkill of information.
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None of my arguments thus far have been emotionally influenced. The tone, including repetition, bolding, and capitalization were meant to convey my desperation and urgency, but none of the underlying arguments were appeals to emotion except for an obvious satirical post with some powerful appeals to spelling and germanic cognates.
If you disagree with any point I have made, then contest it. I understand I have made many pages worth of arguments. But most of those arguments can be taken in the context of a few blocks of posts. If you don't have time to read them, frankly tell me tl;dr. If I use terminology that doesn't make sense, please ask me to explain.
It is not in the best interest of the town going forward to cast arguments you don't understand as nonsensical unless you can provide evidence supporting its nonsensicality.
1 hour left to live.... What's taking you so long, claw?
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On May 04 2012 04:35 AcesRequiem wrote: This is fucking terrible. We gain NOTHING from this no-lynch, we will just have to play day 2 with 1 Townie (maybe even a blue). This is not looking good for the town.
But we will learn something from what happens at the end of the night. Don't discount that as useful information.
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Sorry, didn't know we were allowed to post at night as town.
I don't know why you're mad at me. I didn't cause the confusion. I claimed a role and Gummy started this nonsensical rant about how bad it was for me to claim medic after he claims medic 10 seconds after me.
What the hell does this mean?
1 hour left to live.... What's taking you so long, claw?
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I thought we had to post every night as well?! Isn't that stated in the rules?
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On April 28 2012 04:20 Mattchew wrote: Activity: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Or am I misunderstanding?
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Night's over. Why am I still alive.
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The cycle is the combination of Day+Night.
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Poll: When is day going to start?When Gummy switches his major to Greek and Near Eastern Mythology (4) 80% Dec. 21 2012 (1) 20% Now (0) 0% Exactly an hour from now (0) 0% Tomorrow (0) 0% When paschl commits suicide because of Gummy (0) 0% When MKP wins a GSL (0) 0% Never (0) 0% 5 total votes Your vote: When is day going to start? (Vote): Now (Vote): Exactly an hour from now (Vote): Tomorrow (Vote): When Gummy switches his major to Greek and Near Eastern Mythology (Vote): When paschl commits suicide because of Gummy (Vote): When MKP wins a GSL (Vote): Dec. 21 2012 (Vote): Never
I must know!
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Didn't realize we could post in the night, daytime gogogogo.
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No Polls Please, I do not about the day post
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isnt dec. 21 2012 and never basically the same thing?
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On May 04 2012 10:12 paschl wrote: isnt dec. 21 2012 and never basically the same thing? I guess it depends... Will Gummy ever change his major? Will MKP ever win a GSL? Are these also the same things as never?
Particle-wave duality. The universe is one with us. *Insert New Age stuff here*
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@ange: When they die, both roles and alignment are revealed, not just color. On Day 1, I doubt both mafia will be caught pushing and voting for the lynch of a town; they wouldn't need. Generally, they can just watch the town damage itself by grabbing onto a poorly written post or a bad town player. I doubt if we had lynched a town on Day 1 we would find the mafia from it. + Show Spoiler +I agreed with you that it was so flawed that it shouldn't have been posted --- that statement and the meta-comment on it were fairly useless and distracted from the rest of your post. Gummy would be the immediate lynch target if Claw turned to be blue; no mind-game could undo that. On May 03 2012 06:29 Ange777 wrote:@DeMorcerf: While I do understand your logic I don't believe No lynch is better than possibly mislynching. By voting for a lynch we will be able to see who voted on whom and why. No lynch just gives scum an excuse not to make a case against someone. You are correct that by lynching one of the three potential blue roles we might mislynch. But lynching is the only way to get more information about the motives of every votes. If we just wait for night, scum can pick a target and we only get to know what colour they flipped. With this little information it would be really hard to reveal scum on day 2. If I missed some point, please tell me. Regarding my role claiming: I thought this was normal seeing all the other players roleclaiming. I merely wanted to state that I don't think it will be of much use. I admit being a first time player I am probably easier to influence so next time being pressured to role claim I will think first and then post Can you please explain why I should not have posted that? Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote:Yet, you don't go crazy when Gummy pressures you; and you then put forward Gummy's medic slip and analyze how Claw appears to be a bad liar. But this: + Show Spoiler +On May 03 2012 01:27 Ange777 wrote:
2) Claw is the real medic and you are desperate to kill him before someone reveals you as scum. Although this logic is flawed as everbody would blame you if Claw flipped blue. Or you are playing a huge mindgame and already calculated that possibility? God, this is just soo confusing ...
yes is illogical and should not have been posted.
@Gummy: I said I agreed with your deduction that if "I'm medic, Claw is lying. Lying is suspicious. Lynch him." I wasn't convinced that your claim was true or that he's obvious mafia; he has now though become increasingly bad at the game. You post a lot of "info"; well, some of that info is useless or redundant, and I think you should wait for more people to chime in between your posts. We will have information Day 2 that we did not have Day 1. We will not just be in the same situation minus one town. To say such overlooks the fact that if one of the blue-claimees die we will see their true role and can argue other members' alignments based on how they spoke of the dead. If no one dies, then we can assume that indeed medics/jailers are out there. If a red dies, we know there was a vig. If a random town member dies, we can then thoroughly examine his posts and people who mentioned him prior, as well as speculate that maybe mafia feared one of the medics being real. + Show Spoiler +If we are talking about Near Eastern mythology and folklore, then I have to plug Ferdowsi's "Shahnameh". It's epic and not just because it's an epic poem.
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And when I flip medic you will be screwed. All's well that end's well! <3
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I don't understand how I'm playing bad. I've stuck with my role claim and pointed out all the logical fallacies Gummy is using to try and discredit me.
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On May 04 2012 11:05 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't understand how I'm playing bad. I've stuck with my role claim and pointed out all the logical fallacies Gummy is using to try and discredit me.
You really don't know what a logical fallacy is.
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cant you just die already?
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United States5684 Posts
Day 2
DeMorcerf the vanilla townie was found dead
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oh look gummy survived. how did that happen? please enlighten me mr gumball.
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in before "paschl is mafia and set me up".
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In before, there has yet to be a day announcement.
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Very revelatory of how much of this thread you actually read.
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in after "Anyway I'm on my phone demor(cerf) the townie is dead"
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On May 04 2012 13:06 Gummy wrote: Very revelatory of how much of this thread you actually read.
in after you shoot yourself in the foot.
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That's odd. Who would want to shoot DeMorcerf? I shall peruse the thread for more clues before I reveal who I checked tonight. ^_^
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If i had to guess id say demorcerf was a strong player kill, many people thought he was a villager and there always is the added chance he might be some sort of blue. But killing demorcerf instead of any of the direct claims does seem weird. And it certainly has some implications but id like to think them over before i post something that isnt ready.
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Fwiw i think if Firm is mafia the kill doesnt make any sense (except the mafia doesnt buy any of the medic claims, or the mafia thinks "oh, 2 medic claims, lets think theyre not detectives and try to snipe the real cop"). Killing the detective is sooooo much more important than the medic. DId i say sooooo? I meant unbelievably more important, especially in small games. He could easily get away with shooting one of the medic claims.
But im still not entirely confident in my analysis. I have some hurdles in my head to overcome since im used to the medic not being able to target the same person twice in a row which makes for a very different game. Some of my assumptions may be flawed but ill try to keep it clear.
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No surprise there. They were to scared to take the chance on either of the two people begging for a kill so they attacked someone else.
I healed Firm last night because after all that I tried to make them think I was WIFOM'ing Firm and going to heal Gummy. They'll stay away from this triangle of people for as long as possible.
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Why would you ever heal Gummy?
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And im not asking that because id like nothing more than to see the inside of Gummys head sprayed across a wall (only game wise ldo) but because id like to hear your reasoning.
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It's time to figure out who would want DeMorcerf dead. Let's go!
On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: I propose that we let Gummy, Claw, and Tofu live into the first night. He is supportive of the survival of these three people currently in the spotlight. Therefore, we can assume that none of these three people would have had the motive to kill him. Essentially, these three people are less likely to be mafia.
On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: dahdum, at the moment, is Town-ish. His posts have echoed some of my own thought processes, so for the time being I'll overlook his low amount of posts. dahdum also has no motive to kill DeMorcerf because DeMorcerf was supportive of him. This makes him an unlikely mafia suspect, for now.
On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Matriarch has failed to post enough actual content for me to place any trust in her yet.
Matriarch remains a suspect because DeMorcerf remained neutral on her.
On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Ange seems very inexperienced but at the same time his/her second post bothers me: ...
Ange seems like a very likely suspect for mafia. She was actively criticized by DeMorcef and seems to be the person who would gain the most from his death. It's hard to be sure, but that's where we stand as of now.
On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Aces thought that if Claw and Tofu were as claimed it would a dream scenario for the town with Tofu's plan, which makes no sense because I still fail to see how any player imagines that somehow they would live forever in that scenario. Why does Aces beg us to "please believe that he is vanilla townie and not scummy"?
Another great suspect for mafia. He was called out by DeMorcerf for scummy behavior and DeMorcef died last night. He also has a motive to eliminate this threat.
On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: paschl spams at the start, claims townie, then claims he never claimed townie or a role. Well into his spam just posts "This is gonna be fun", great more spam. Fails to thoroughly read the rules and setup. Has posted a few unnecessary lists and then voted for dahdum for not posting much in his opinion (in comparison to paschl and Gummy, everyone is a mime).
I'm willing to give paschl the benefit of the doubt here. While I did agree that he seemed a bit spammy and didn't read the rules carefully, I attribute this to his relative noobiness at the game. Although he did have some incentive to kill DeMorcerf, I don't think it was sufficient to warrant a hit on him.
To round up this post, I will reveal who I checked last night. Matriarch appears to be Town.
My List of Suspects(Most Suspect to Least Suspect): 1) Aces 2) Ange 3) Clawtrocity 4) Gummy 5) paschl 6) dahdum 7) Matriarch (Town)
Let's hear your defense, Aces and Ange!
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fwiw, and i know this is my ego talking but i cant stop it, ive played >50 mafia games over the last 2 years. thats not counting turbos. i just signed up for the newbie game because my regular forum is down and since i have played <3 games on TL i thought id see how different the games here are to what im used to.
and im not sure how much help the analysis you did will bring us. the most important thing for the mafia is killing blue roles. killing someone just for what they said about you on day 1 is a really, really, exceptionally bad play. especially since nobody had been peeked at the time.
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On May 04 2012 15:49 paschl wrote: fwiw, and i know this is my ego talking but i cant stop it, ive played >50 mafia games over the last 2 years. thats not counting turbos. i just signed up for the newbie game because my regular forum is down and since i have played <3 games on TL i thought id see how different the games here are to what im used to.
and im not sure how much help the analysis you did will bring us. the most important thing for the mafia is killing blue roles. killing someone just for what they said about you on day 1 is a really, really, exceptionally bad play. especially since nobody had been peeked at the time. Some evidence is always better than no evidence. Here's an analogy for ya.
You have a multiple choice test in front of you. There are four choices and you're petty much stumped. You realize one answer is obviously incorrect
Do you: a) Make an educated guess by choosing between the other three choices at random? or b) Not attempt to answer the question?
I'd say a) is the obvious answer. That's essentially what I've done here for you. I've narrowed down the list of suspects so that the likelihood of hitting mafia rises. It's the best I can do for now. Unless you have any better ideas, I suggest we go with this.
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sorry if that sounded like i was trying to talk down your work. just think it through like youre scum. you need to kill the blue roles, especially the cop. every day you dont kill them cop someone will be peeked. say the cop randomly picks his target you have a 2/9 chance of half your team being revealed. and if nobody from your team gets peeked youre still in a bad spot because there is one more clear towny. so considering there were 3 claims yesterday the mafia has to think through their options. kill one of the claimed blues? youre probably out of the question since a medic will likely heal you whether youre the real cop or not. shooting a medic gets more complicated since we have 2 claims and if one of those is a scum they will have a hard time shooting the other one since it puts them into a bad light. now lets say that there even is the slightest doubt that youre not the real cop the mafia will go and shoot who they think is the best player and hope he is medic. or they look for someone awkwardly responding to your claim and shoot him. or for any other tiny clue that gives them reason to believe he might be the cop.
im trying to say that the mafia shouldnt just kill him because of what he said. and they probably didnt. he was a clear-ish player that made good posts. this singlehandedly is more of a reason to kill him than any of his posts alone.
another reason not to aim at the medic would be that Gummy/Claw are v/v and the mafia wants to go for easy mislynches. since if their t/t any way one flips after he gets lynched will probably get the other lynched too.
theres a lot of stuff to keep in mind here and tbh its 9am and i havent slept yet. im not saying my reasons are perfect, nor am i saying yours are dumb. i just want to find scum.
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waaaaaait a secoond. i just realised that in the setups i posted on page5 every mafiateam had a roleblocker. this kinda changes everything. uargh... i need more coffee.
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I would think they'd take a chance and try to hit one of 3 blue claims, but Demorcef as a target isn't too surprising. His posts made sense and he didn't stir up confusion.
Firm, your check on Matriarch confirms her as an inactive townie, I don't understand the reasoning to check her over the rest of us, she's not contributing at the same level and if she was scum, we'd learn nothing about anyone else. Regardless, we now have a confirmed innocent.
I don't know what to think on the Gummy/Claw v/v theory, seems unlikely to me but one *has* to be the medic. So even if the other is 100% scum, I don't think it's worthwhile to lynch on a 50% chance when the medic can continue to heal Firm.
It's late here so I'll reread in the morning for more analysis.
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On May 04 2012 16:16 paschl wrote: im trying to say that the mafia shouldnt just kill him because of what he said. and they probably didnt. he was a clear-ish player that made good posts. this singlehandedly is more of a reason to kill him than any of his posts alone.
I agree with your general sentiment. However, I don't agree with your conclusion(See bold). I think mafia should willing to take the risk of killing someone who actively suspects them, especially if said person wasn't particularly active but was decidedly pro-town. Furthermore, I don't believe that risk to be a bad move for the mafia to take. It's a risk that has a great payoff in the long run because they'll have one less person scrutinizing their play later on.
They are insured of their action because of WIFOM. Your theory that they just killed a good player regardless of his posts is perfectly plausible due to WIFOM, but we shouldn't rule out the possibility that the mafia went for their biggest threat because we think it would be a bad move for them to make.
It's hard for me to explain myself with so little sleep on hand. I'm going to get some shut-eye, so I'll be back later. Hopefully we can draw some info out of Ace and Ange today.
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imo Matriarch is a good peek. If Firm doesnt peek her she will probably be lynched at some point. And i just threw the gummy/claw v/v thing out there. If im scum and gummy/claw are v/v i will probably let the village take care of it. (no i wouldnt, id kill gummy so fast your head would spin ). But I didnt realise that if there is a medic there probably is a roleblocker too. So why didnt they just roleblock one of the medics and go for Firm? If it fails they block the other one today. Something doesnt add up here.
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On May 04 2012 17:01 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2012 16:16 paschl wrote: im trying to say that the mafia shouldnt just kill him because of what he said. and they probably didnt. he was a clear-ish player that made good posts. this singlehandedly is more of a reason to kill him than any of his posts alone.
I agree with your general sentiment. However, I don't agree with your conclusion(See bold). I think mafia should willing to take the risk of killing someone who actively suspects them, especially if said person wasn't particularly active but was decidedly pro-town. Furthermore, I don't believe that risk to be a bad move for the mafia to take. It's a risk that has a great payoff in the long run because they'll have one less person scrutinizing their play later on. They are insured of their action because of WIFOM. Your theory that they just killed a good player regardless of his posts is perfectly plausible due to WIFOM, but we shouldn't rule out the possibility that the mafia went for their biggest threat because we think it would be a bad move for them to make. It's hard for me to explain myself with so little sleep on hand. I'm going to get some shut-eye, so I'll be back later. Hopefully we can draw some info out of Ace and Ange today.
The thing is they dont have to kill him They can just try to convince him itt that theyre not scum. Killing him on night 1 puts them out there. Especially after the day 1 we had. Who suspected a demorcerf kill? Everybody is gonna look over his posts and see what he can find.
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On May 04 2012 16:58 dahdum wrote: I would think they'd take a chance and try to hit one of 3 blue claims, but Demorcef as a target isn't too surprising. His posts made sense and he didn't stir up confusion.
Firm, your check on Matriarch confirms her as an inactive townie, I don't understand the reasoning to check her over the rest of us, she's not contributing at the same level and if she was scum, we'd learn nothing about anyone else. Regardless, we now have a confirmed innocent.
I don't know what to think on the Gummy/Claw v/v theory, seems unlikely to me but one *has* to be the medic. So even if the other is 100% scum, I don't think it's worthwhile to lynch on a 50% chance when the medic can continue to heal Firm.
It's late here so I'll reread in the morning for more analysis. 1) Possibility of framer on Gummy/Clawtrocity is relatively high. 2) Everyone else seemed relatively innocuous, but Matriarch seemed a bit passive/aggressive with a few lurking tendencies. 3) She was at the top of my list of suspects after reading Day 1. Aces was a close second, so I had a hard time deciding. I almost wish I had chosen Aces, but we'll see how things go.
Okay, NOW I'm going to sleep! ^_^
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@paschl - An inactive isn't a good peak unless it tells us confirms/denies/implies something about others. At best her innocence implies me since I proposed to lynch her. I can see the reasoning not to check the blue roles (why confirm for mafia) but that leaves Ange, you, Aces, and myself. We all have enough content to pick at for clues.
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Its a good peek because she is inactive, it makes the mafia get rid of her for us (sorry matriarch ^^).
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Wow DeMorcerf killed I didn't see that coming.
@Tofu:
On May 04 2012 15:20 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Ange seems very inexperienced but at the same time his/her second post bothers me: ...
Ange seems like a very likely suspect for mafia. She was actively criticized by DeMorcef and seems to be the person who would gain the most from his death. It's hard to be sure, but that's where we stand as of now.
I already explained DeMorcerf's concerns earlier. In my second post I claimed townie as I assumed that this is the way this game is played. That does not prevent me from saying that it does not make any sense to me. If roleclaiming on day 1 while denying it's usefulness makes me scummy, this rule would have to be applied to Claw as well, as he claims his role while critizising this strategy.
On May 01 2012 09:24 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't really understand the point behind forcing a role claim. Everyone will claim vanilla townie because that's the most common role and it's completely unprovable. It doesn't hide any roles because if everyone claims vanilla townie then everyone is up for attack.
I'll go ahead and say that I don't like that strategy, but regardless I'll give actions a real role to claim. With the possibility of a jailkeeper or another Medic I'm fine in saying that I'm one of the medics.
I still believe that we would have done better with a lynch on day 1. This kill does not give us much information. While you could say, that Aces and I are suspicious because DeMorcerfs had his doubts about us (which would be just stupid as people might suspect us) , I could also say that it's suspicious that none of the blue role claimers got killed. There could be one scum hidden in between them who by not breaking up this triangle could stay alive for a long time. I could also say that Paschl and dahdum tried to set Aces and me up by killing DeMorcerf just after he criticized us.
Just to be clear, I am not actively pursuing any of these theorys. I just want to point out that there are tons of possibilties and each of them is as likely as the others. After being somehow "fooled" by Gummy's theory who I believe has some explaing to do, I need to reconsider all of this first.
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So cool. I'm alive. I'm going to take another strategy and simply comment on what I see. Apparently game theoretic logic is not a good way to convince people of arguments on forum mafia.
My explanation is that claw has enough confidence in his explanation of his illogical behavior to waste a night kill to, instead of kill me, attempt to discredit me.
My post history stands. Mafia did not make the right play tonight, but I will let that be their problem ^_^
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@ FirmTofu, your theory has been proven not to be that effective by Ange777 and paschl already, if you still have reason to think I'm scum, please feel free to go into discussion with me.
I think it's pretty clear why the mafia didn't kill anyone of the sacred triangle of Gummy, FirmTofu and Clawtrocity. The obvious reason is they want to keep the Town in confusion about who the real medic is.It's a dumb move on the maffias part to not try to target the medic or cop, but on the same time the Town is still not quite sure about the blue roles. However opinions change.
And mine is changing quite a bit. FirmTofu, at first I did not agree at all with your inspection, especially because of the framer. We can also quite safely confirm they have no roleblocker on their team. Reason is they would surely have blocked you, even if they doubted your claim. You can't just let a cop inspect every/a single night, it's simply not a clever thing to do. However not killing any of the suspected blue roles is also not a very clever thing to do imo as I have stated before, so we need to watch out for this mafia team as it seems they won't do the most logical thing the Town think they'll do. Clawtrocity, you immediatly claimed you put your heal on FirmTofu whiel Gummy hasn't said A SINGLE thing yet about his heal. This is a very huge thing in my opinion.
Gummy, please don't change your playstyle. I liked how you were agressive and how you made paschl go nuts sometime. It's a very scummy move if you look at it from a certain perspective and together with the heal claim I mentioned above, you ARE looking more and more scummy to me. Or you just your hopes on this game for the second time, remember when you were sure maffia would kill you?
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I'll defend myself it it looks like there's going to be a majority on me. Given my confidence in the fact that Claw is scum, and given the irrelevance of any claims I make regarding who I saved going forward.
Logical deduction isn't the engine for this particular game, so I'm going to sit back and observe. Maybe I'll have a better time with forum Mafia next game.
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Wow, shit, mayor type error in this sentence, I'm a fucking idiot: FirmTofu, at first I did not agree at all with your inspection, especially because of the framer. I meant that I do agree with you on the possiblity of a framer in the mafia team. However, now the framer has one night to also frame either Gummy or Clawtroicity, depending on who he framed first. Maybe one of them is a likely target for this night because they would both be framed, right?
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My punctuation in previous post was messed up. I meant the second sentence of the first paragraph to be the subordinate clause leading into the first sentence of the second paragraph. My bad.
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##Unvote: Clawtrocity ##Vote: No Lynch
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On May 05 2012 01:20 Gummy wrote: ##Unvote: Clawtrocity ##Vote: No Lynch I'll change back to Claw if it will help him get a majority.
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On May 05 2012 01:22 Gummy wrote:I'll change back to Claw if it will help him get a majority.
So you'll happily bandwagon but not initiate his vote? I don't think you can have it both ways.
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On May 04 2012 22:48 Gummy wrote: So cool. I'm alive. I'm going to take another strategy and simply comment on what I see. Apparently game theoretic logic is not a good way to convince people of arguments on forum mafia.
My explanation is that claw has enough confidence in his explanation of his illogical behavior to waste a night kill to, instead of kill me, attempt to discredit me.
My post history stands. Mafia did not make the right play tonight, but I will let that be their problem ^_^
Gummi you saw the setups i posted earlier itt right? Every wolf team had a roleblocker. So why wouldnt claw just block you and kill Firm? The day after it would just be the same story again, both of you claim your heal was blocked.
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On May 05 2012 03:11 dahdum wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2012 01:22 Gummy wrote:On May 05 2012 01:20 Gummy wrote: ##Unvote: Clawtrocity ##Vote: No Lynch I'll change back to Claw if it will help him get a majority. So you'll happily bandwagon but not initiate his vote? I don't think you can have it both ways. Pretty sure I can.
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On May 05 2012 04:23 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2012 03:11 dahdum wrote:On May 05 2012 01:22 Gummy wrote:On May 05 2012 01:20 Gummy wrote: ##Unvote: Clawtrocity ##Vote: No Lynch I'll change back to Claw if it will help him get a majority. So you'll happily bandwagon but not initiate his vote? I don't think you can have it both ways. Pretty sure I can. Someone else can get the train rolling today.
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i think i know why you dodged the question of how many games youve played Gummy.
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Don't think I've dodged that question. First forum Mafia game. Have played hundreds of in person games.
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On May 03 2012 07:44 Gummy wrote: YOU WILL BE IN THE SAME SITUATION TOMORROW AS YOU WILL BE IN TODAY WITH ONE FEWER TOWNIE.
On May 03 2012 07:15 Gummy wrote: @Demorcef. Your logic behind your No Lynch is flatly wrong. Rethink your logic and vote Clawtrocity please. Matriarch and Dahdum. Change your vote to me or claw now or your votes are equivalent to No Lynch. If you are a townie, and you apparently believe in LAL, just pick somebody. Your votes are complete cop-outs at this point.
The Next Day...
On May 05 2012 01:20 Gummy wrote: ##Unvote: Clawtrocity ##Vote: No Lynch
Oh, I get it. He's Mitt Romney.
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Don't spam memes/pictures, especially huge ones, they have there time and place, not three at a time.
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On May 05 2012 07:23 Mementoss wrote: Don't spam memes/pictures, especially huge ones, they have there time and place, not three at a time. Alright, got it. I rather enjoyed making it though :D
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Don't think any of those pictures required any modification. So I don't know what you mean by "making it."
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Neil degrasse tyson is always a welcome addition to any thread.
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Would another no-lynch day be in our interest? According to Paschl we have 1 more no-lynch day, but we're likely to lose another town (unless medic risks not healing FirmTofu). If we believe there is a framer, the detection is suspect, but I assume we'd go through with a lynch on odds alone.
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On May 05 2012 12:56 dahdum wrote: Would another no-lynch day be in our interest? According to Paschl we have 1 more no-lynch day, but we're likely to lose another town (unless medic risks not healing FirmTofu). If we believe there is a framer, the detection is suspect, but I assume we'd go through with a lynch on odds alone.
I'm fairly confident that Ange777 is scum after reading her reply to my accusations. Considering we don't have any other info to go on other than everything we had on day 1, I say we proceed with this lynch.
#vote: Ange777
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oh sorry ##:vote: Ange777
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I hate myself... ##vote: Ange777
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[B]On May 05 2012 15:16 FirmTofu wrote:[/B
I'm fairly confident that Ange777 is scum after reading her reply to my accusations. Considering we don't have any other info to go on other than everything we had on day 1, I say we proceed with this lynch.
#vote: Ange777
Would you mind explaining why? Feels like a random accusation to me right now.
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Indeed, and FirmTofu if you think her reply is so weird, you should vote on me too since I agreed with her reply. You have got no case going at all. Plus you have no idea how to use memes.
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Ange is a towny. I still think dahdum is a good lynch.
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Just running through a scenario Now: 6 + 2 Today after mislynch: 5 + 2 Tomorrow after night: 4 + 2 Day after: Mislynch 3 + 2 Night after -> Loss.
You can afford 2 more mislynches at this point (including today). There isn't a case for dahdum. There is all too strong a case for claw, tofu, or even me.
Let's presume we are wrong today. Mafia will be a 3rd of the town, and given the lack of determination on the part of townspeople to find the scum..... We are in trouble.
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Im most likely not gonna be around for the eod.... Looks like my soccer team is gonna be relegated and i need some way to deal with the frustration.... How about we just lynch one of claw/gummy tonight to get the claims right?
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Let's do just that, who will it be?
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Would rather not lynch myself.
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Not that it makes much of a difference since the medic is more or less a useless role if he can't save himself. And when I fliP medic, claw's guilt will be confirmed.
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Since you though you would've died last night, why not?
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Let me retract all my pedantic and excessively jargon-filled arguments from before and try to simplify my case.
It seems that FirmTofu and Clawtrocity, regardless of their alignment, aren't so much playing to win as playing to be unpredictable and to troll. That kind of behavior can only hurt the town. You can't confuse the mafia by being trolly since the mafia know who you are. And since the mafia read the same thing on the forum as everybody else, consistent assessments will result in consistent actions.
Without getting too formal....
We say that an assessment of a situation is consistent if what you think about it is what other people think that you think about it. If I think I'm fat, but nobody else thinks that I think I'm fat, then my initial assessment was consistent.
In particular, we are interested in how actions affect what the town thinks, and affect what the mafia thinks that the town thinks.
Let's walk through some cases
Case 1: You troll hard enough so that the townspeople think you're mafia, then you have trolled enough for the mafia to think that the townspeople think that you're mafia. This only hurts the town because if the townspeople genuinely think that you're mafia, you only get lynched during day play.
Case 2: You troll just hard enough so that the townspeople don't think you're mafia, but that the mafia mistakenly think the townspeople think you're mafia. This is beneficial, but this is what you would call an "inconsistent" assessment. Since Mafia have access to a superset of information, regarding alignments, as the townies during day play, it is illogical to think that mafia think that the town believes something it doesn't. <- Lots of I think that he thinks, but if you read that last sentence a few times it should be pretty clear.
Case 3: You troll hard enough so the townspeople think you're mafia, but the mafia mistakenly think the townspeople think you're mafia. This is a double-edged bad situation. You get yourself voted off in day play, and just to be sure, you haven't reduced the probability of your being targeted in night play.
Case 4: You don't troll enough to make the townspeople think you're mafia, and the mafia know that you haven't trolled enough to make the townspeople think you're mafia. This is the only consistent assessment that doesn't hurt the town.
Conclusions: Illogical, trolly, or generally scummy behavior should be taken as an indicator of being scum.
Dahdum, Aces, and Matriarch, and to a lesser degree Ange, are more or less inactive. They haven't said anything of import in one way or the other. Basically only echoing previously posted sentiment or posting one off comments without having those comments materialize into legitimate accusations or votes. There is really no point in lynching any of them at this stage in the game when it is clear that lynching one of the three troublemakers (me, tofu, or claw) will actually reveal information, even if we flip a VT. If I flip medic, you know my accusations of Claw have been unfounded. If Claw flips anything other than medic, you know my accusations of Claw have been right on. My case against claw has been heavily documented and you can see it by using the filter command on my posts or his. I'd rather not get into that again.
Tofu, on the other hand, has made an interesting play. He illogically claimed detective and then apparently illogically used his vote on an inactive, which he knew would 90%+ chance yield no information. If, as he claimed, he was afraid of wasting his check on claw or me, he could've used it on Demorcef or Paschl, who actually have taken stances that alignments might shed light on. And this fear, again, was based on the assumption of there being a godfather or framer who would be lucky enough to target the same person he did (in the case of a framer) or just a 1/9 chance of him accidentally hitting a godfather.
Given that a check on me or claw would be gamebreaking, and given that his chance of being roleblocked was significantly less than 50% assuming any reasonable belief about the presence of either a Godfather or Framer and the distribution of the Framer's choices, his play was (however you look at it) suboptimal.
+ Show Spoiler [proof of suboptimality] + Let's say he believes that, as in each of the previous 11 games, that there has been 1 roleblocker for the Mafia and that there was a p probability that that roleblocker was a framer and a 1-p probability that the roleblocker was a Godfather. Presume that his probability of being blocked conditional on there being a godfather was 1/9. Presume that his probability of being blocked conditional on their being a framer was less than or equal to 50% (which is a minimax safe strategy in a symmetric guessing game achieved by randomly choosing me or claw). Then, his probability of being roleblocked was p*(1/2) + (1-p)*(1/9), which we can see is maximized (through first order conditions and resulting corner case) where p = 1. Therefore, his probability of being role blocked in the very worst case was 50%. If, however, he more reasonably believed that the chance of a framer or a Godfather was equal (p=1/2) then his probability of being blocked was only 5/18.
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I meant "if I don't flip medic" in the 3rd to last paragraph.
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Ehhh.... the more I look at it the more I see suboptimal play all around.
I guess in a newbie game, it's a weaker argument than it might be otherwise. I guess the best way to address suboptimal play is with more suboptimal play.
Whatever. Vote me off and make what you will of my medic flip
##Unvote: No Lynch ##Vote: Gummy
It's probably better than a no lynch at this point since this actually gives you guys information you can trust without having to work through deduction or math, and since you guys don't seem to have the balls to make reasonable votes on candidates who might actually get a majority. ^_^ GL HF friends!
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##Vote: No Lynch
maybe its best to take the no lynch today.. im not gonna be useful and im not confident in any vote im going to make. perhaps we can make the mafia untangle the medic situation.
at this point im starting to trust firm is the cop since i cant see nobody counterclaim in a newbie game.
newbie game is the point btw gummy. you cant expect everyone to play optimal in a newbie game. i dont even think you can expect everyone to know what the optimal play is. the mafia kill is a perfect example of it.
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and fwiw selfvoting is almost never the optimal play
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Only chance of a vote passing. Won't even let that happen.
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Gummy, reading your latest posts was like reading someone entirely different posting than on day 1. Why didn't you just play like this earlier?
As Gummy says the only way we get any real information is if we break up this triangle of Claw, Tofu and Gummy. Setting aside Tofu's detective claim leaves us with Claw and Gummy again! Just like day 1. So how to get out of this?
Paschl, you suggested no lynch and hoping for the mafia to reveal the real medic.
Although that might be possible, Mafia could also continue their strategy of confusing us and leaving us in the dark. They could just kill someone else they believe is townie. Of course they could risk getting checked but who says that this isn't a risk they are willing to take? Apparently they did take it on night 1. If they killed anyone other than Claw, Tofu and Gummy, we would be stuck again on day 3 with the same doubts about the real blue roles.
Right now we have 6 townies, 2 mafia. If we go for a no lynch and mafia just aims for killing a random townie we will be 5 townies and 2 mafia on day 3 with no clue again. Of course Tofu might be able to reveal some information but if we are unlucky his check could target a townie, a framed townie or even the killed player of the night.
I don't understand why we have to wait for another cycle to hope for more information if there is a way to get this information ourselves.
Gummy, if you truly are the medic, which I am assuming right now, than please stop this nonsense vote for yourself. Even if mafia decides to kill you in the next night, you suiciding right now is not helping at all. If we lynched you, you fliped medic, than mafia is safe to kill Tofu. If on the other hand we lynched Claw, he flips not medic, than mafia still has to kill you to be sure that they won't waste a kill on Tofu because the medic is still out there. Which would give us hopefully one more night of checking.
Therefore
##Vote: Clawtrocity
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@Paschl: Köln? Or Kaiserslautern? ^^ We from Frankfurt can't complain at all
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##unvote:gummy ##vote:clawtrocity
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I suggested no lynch because the mafia has to start going after blues soon. And i seriously doubt there being a framer or godfather, they would seriously fuck the balance of a small game. Every day the cop lives we have another clear player in addition to the claimable roles. If we want to lynch fro claw/gummy id vote claw. Im still tempted to vote gummy but the chances of the mafia claiming medic first are so much greater than the chances of the mafia counterclaiming a medic claim on day1.
And Köln My heart got broken today. Well thats not entirely true, my heart got broken every game this season. :'(
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Vote Count:
Clawtrocity(2) - Gummy,Ange777 Ange777 (1) - FirmTofu No-Lynch (1) - Paschl
With 8 alive it is 5 to lynch! Currently no one is set to be lynch.
Remember EVERYONE is required to vote, even if it is for no-lynch. Night post incoming in little less than 4 hours.
If the vote count is wrong, PM me.
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Saddest game of mafia I have ever seen no lynch is a pretty good way to lose.
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Best hope for town is probably a mod kill on claw.
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##vote: Claw
As I have said before I believe either Claw or Gummy are scum. I'm voting Claw because I personally do not want to see another no lynch. Even if it ends up that Claw was telling the truth, we will have some pretty good information.
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I thought before it wasn't the worth the risk to lynch Claw, but I don't think another night kill is worth the 1 check Firm can do, and a no-lynch day when there are fewer people and more information is better than right now.
##vote:clawtrocity
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We need the lynch for info or this situation is gets even worse. Since everyone has voted for this person already
##Vote: Clawtrocity
@Matriarch, get your format right please.
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##Vote: Clawtrocity
@Aces, happy?
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You have lynched an innocent townie!
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Vote Count:
Clawtrocity(5) - Gummy,Ange777, dahdum, acesrequiem, matriach Ange777 (1) - FirmTofu No-Lynch (1) - Paschl
With 8 alive it is 5 to lynch! Currently Clawtrocity is set to be lynch!
Remember EVERYONE is required to vote, even if it is for no-lynch. Night post incoming in 1.5 hours.
If the vote count is wrong, PM me.
Also, im doing the night post, and I don't know the roles, so it won't be updated with role right away mattchew will come back to fix when he gets back later.
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On May 06 2012 07:20 Gummy wrote: You have lynched an innocent townie!
?
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I hinted at it all fucking game and Gummy is too self centered to even get a glimpse of what I was trying to force down his throat.
Gummy is the one who trolled all game by forcing his own role claim and acting like a jackass when things didn't go his way. Gummy played horrible all game because of his dual major blinders. He couldn't see past the most simplest of analogies or hints played toward him at all and he's by far the Least Valuable Player of this game.
Gummy is literally the bane of forum mafia players everywhere because all everyone wants to do is have fun and lie. He tries to break everything down into little analytical black and white scenario's and when people say how grey a situation is he closes up like an elementary school boy and throws a fit.
It's pretty obvious who the mafia are, but because I'm only allotted a good-bye post I won't put their names in here. Just read everything on page 20 and tell me what you guys think of that shit.
I won't even spoil the surprise as to what my role is. This has been enlightening, but sadly when I heard about how smart and fun TL FM was I thought I'd give a shot, but I can only assume what kind of pretencious shit is going on in the normal games. No offense to anyone else, I'm just being an ass by generalizing that if someone like Gummy can convince 4 other people to vote me then I'd rather not stick around. Twas definitely a fun game and the mods did a good job of being on time with everything for the most part.
I am a leaf on the wind, watch how I soar.
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On May 06 2012 08:07 Clawtrocity wrote: but because I'm only allotted a good-bye post
Deadline is in 30 minutes, you can post whatever you want before deadline BTW, only GG afterwards.
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##Unvote:clawtrocity ##vote:dahdum
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whats this gummy? i have no idea what youre doing. that post i quoted earlier looks like a mafia claim to me.
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grmpf should i vote claw now?
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dont lay this one me what the heck this isnt my day..
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##Unvote:No Lynch ##vote:Clawtrocity
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##Unvote:No Lynch ##vote:Clawtrocity
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sorry if youre a towny claw..
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Night 2
The town was oddly silent today. Everybody just sat around the campfire, not saying a word. And although nothing was being said aloud, thoughts were scattered throughout everyone’s head. Some continued to mourn the loss of their good buddy DeMorcef, while others sipped cold pints of ale.
Everyone knew there was two scum sitting around the same fire as them, but as darkness fell on the town no one could quiet figure it who it was. “Maybe, we will discuss it in the morning, maybe we won’t”, was what most people were thinking. “See you all tomorrow” they hoped, as they went to their individual tents, hoping that they would be alive to see the sun rise again at dawn.
Clawtrocity the Vanilla Townie was Lynched!
Night 2 has begun! PM all night actions to Mattchew and NOT Mementoss.
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Why are we killing the good guys!?!?!
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he will flip towny.. with my luck nothing else is possible. worst day ever.... first my external hdd breaks just as i had finally filled it up, then my tv breaks, then my team gets relegated and finally as i want to go out and drink myself into a coma i end up at some event with the worst music ever and 14year olds everywhere. fml.
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On May 06 2012 09:04 Gummy wrote: Why are we killing the good guys!?!?!
##Vote: Gummy
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So Gummy, if youre a villager youre stunt on day1 lost us this game. Congratulations.
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I don't know what's wrong with you people. I already explained to all of you that Gummy is a lunatic with fail logic that assumes everyone will play optimally.
After Night 1, we all saw that his prediction of optimal play did not work(None of the claimed people were attacked), yet you all follow him like a bunch of sheep. Apparently, I can't even get a few hours of sleep before you all bandwagon Clawtrocity with no legitimate reasoning or backing whatsoever.
Gummy is clearly scum at this point or is simply not playing to win. Gummy may sound smart, but he is manipulating you all with a clear objective to confuse and derail discussion. Everything he said showcased his single-minded illogical tunnel-visioning and it's sad that you all fell for it.
For the record, I was never trolling, I was pointing out the blatant hypocrisy of Gummy in a humorous fashion.
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Ok this is ridiculous Gummy. Do you want to explain yourself or should we just accept the fact that you're trolling us?
Why even push for a Claw lynch if you are going to back out last second? You claimed you are not protecting him and yet you switched your vote. You claimed he is scum yet you are posting about lynching an innocent townie.
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Unfortunately, if we are to assume Gummy lied about his medic role, that means we have another medic in play. This is mind-boggling to me.
How would a medic react when a grand total of 2 other people claim medic? Why wouldn't they reveal their role? Wouldn't they want either Clawtrocity or Gummy dead?
I must think on this further. As for the rest of you, stop voting people randomly. Thanks.
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not to complain but i wanted no lynch i just stepped in last second, tbh im not even sure why..
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On May 06 2012 09:28 FirmTofu wrote: Unfortunately, if we are to assume Gummy lied about his medic role, that means we have another medic in play.
Ok, technically it could be possible that we don't have a medic right? Would it be likely?
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Im not sure. But to be honest i think not revealing the roles in a setup like this makes it favour the mafia a fair bit.
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I say we kill the next role claim, tofu. Since I'm not actually the medic and I'm going to save Ange tonight with my nonexistant medic powers, feel free to kill tofu.
GL HF
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And if you guys were more active you would've seen Claw's mistaken goodbye post when he wasn't dead yet. That wasn't the goodbye post of scum.
Also, the people who jumped on the bandwagon last minute even after Claw's mistaken post with host clarification, in a normal game, should be considered seriously suspect.
But let's be real now. This isn't a normal game.
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wow gummy youre so dead its not even funny.
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Who haven't I accused yet?
Matriarch and aces, I think.
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please dont even waste a peek on gummy.
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Please..... Tofu is clearly lying about his detective claim. He's probably going to use his peak on dahdum since he's fishy.
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its gummy/dahdum. gg go next.
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Role claim Mafia. inb4 shitstorm.
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PLEASE DON'T KILL ME TONIGHT! I AM ON YOUR SIDE I WILL DO ANYTHING I HAVE A FAMILY!
This is a picture of my beautiful daughter. + Show Spoiler +
My wonderful wife of 18 years. + Show Spoiler +
I'm so sorry I was late on last week's protection fees. Business at the diner just hasn't been good lately, but with the tourist season approaching, I know I'll make good in the coming month.
Just please, give me some more time. Don't leave my beautiful daughter fatherless and her mother all alone in this cold, cruel town.
Spare me, that is all I ask.
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^ Ironic because I'm directing that at myself.
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<3 Night posts are funnnnnn :D
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so you didnt buy firms claim and killed demorcerf?
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I didn't enjoy it. But I had to do what I had to do to protect my family. Fat Tony was calling in his favor from all those years back. It was either him or my daughter.
I hope you can understand.
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god i shouldve known it. youre reaction to me spitevoting you on day1 was so scummy.
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If a king's citadel is too strongly fortified, the best way to usurp his throne is to rely on the grace of God. Was counting on a Mattchew modkill. You're just too smart to fleece, man! :D
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I wonder if we can get this thread up to a lot of pages so we can look back at this game and really feel like we did something of consequence here.
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On May 06 2012 10:45 Gummy wrote: If a king's citadel is too strongly fortified, the best way to usurp his throne is to rely on the grace of God. Was counting on a Mattchew modkill. You're just too smart to fleece, man! :D
thanks for clearing me bro.
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although i probably was a clearish towny before, but this + the way you asked for the modkill itt should be more evidence than needed.
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I think mafia has this game in the bag. Gummy is obviously scum, but their final member is so well hidden that they are willing to sacrifice Gummy to ensure the death of a few vital roles.
I need to medic hidden and on me for the remainer of the game. Our survival depends on the medic staying hidden. The longer he does, the better chances we have of winning the game going forward.
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United States5684 Posts
Day 3
Matriarch the vanilla townie was found dead in the streets
~47 hours till lynch
+ Show Spoiler + Sorry for being late I am still in NYC and this is from my phone
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ok, so this is how it looks:
AcesRequiem Ange777 dahdum FirmTofu Gummy paschl
6 players.
Gummy is gonna be lynched today, that means we will have 1 mafia left. The medic/jailer shouldnt claim. If you randomly get hit at night it will be worth it. If not claiming after the next night phase might be the way to go. I really doubt Ange is a scum so this means the last should be between Aces/dahdum. There is the tinfoil hat chance that Firm/Gummy is the mafiateam but aorn its unlikely.
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not that anyone cares anymore.
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##Vote:Gummy Gummy returned as mafia. Thank god.
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I'd just like to shed some light on what Gummy did.
It all started when Claw claimed medic and I claimed Detective right afterwards. Gummy did not want to attack into either of the two roles because the risk of a heal going through was too great. He saw my plan's potential and had to figure out some way to discredit it(and me) before it could come to fruition.
Here's the critical part. He saw a hole in my logic and by extension in Claw's logic that he could exploit IF AND ONLY IF he could convince everyone that the mafia were going to play optimally. He used his game theory calculations as a veil to cover up the fact that he was basing everything on this primary underlying assumption--Mafia would act in their best possible interest.
But would mafia really always act in their best possible interest, or would they be swayed by emotions and what they perceive the actions of others to be? Is this a numbers game, as Gummy asserts, or it is more psychological?
I'll be the first to admit it. Gummy's logic wasn't fabricated. The problem was the underlying assumption. The assumption that should not have been assumed because the mafia: 1) May know anything about game theory (Information deficiency) 2) Could be Gummy himself, which he failed to acknowledge as a possibility. 3) May choose their actions based upon suboptimal play because of WIFOM. If Gummy can predict optimal play, then supoptimal play BECOMES optimal, does it not? No mafia wants their night actions predicted by a town member, and if they are forced to play suboptimally to circumvent that, they that suboptimal play becomes optimal because it turns into the best course of action.
So why did Gummy claim medic?
A short-sighted plan for a new guy who thinks he knows everything there is to know about mafia. He wanted to prove to everyone on this site that he was a force to be reckoned with and his deceptive skills in the art of persuasion were top-notch. A pretentious douchebag? Perhaps. I wouldn't go that far. I'd say he was looking to prove himself and made a critical blunder that overlooked basic logic in favor of making a spectacle of himself.
For all his knowledge of game theory, he couldn't run run a simple cost-benefit analysis to predict the repercussions of his actions.
What should have gone through Gummy's brain on Day 1: + Show Spoiler +If I claim medic and get Claw lynched... what will people think of me?
He will either flip vanilla townie or medic and both of those flips would make me look bad. If he flips vanilla townie, I might be able to get out of a lynch, but if he flips medic, I'm screwed.
How sure am I that this guy is a medic? Is he worth a lynch if he isn't?
But what's the point? Either way I end up looking bad for no real gains for my team! Yeah, I might be able to get a medic lynched, but that would be at the cost of my own life!
Conclusion: I should NOT claim medic and try to get Clawtrocity lynched.
Remember that flip-flop thing he did on Day 1? That was your scum tell. I initially didn't believe it because I thought it was too obvious, and Gummy seemed like an intelligent guy, but that was my mistake.
I thought Gummy was town only because I assumed that he was logical enough not to make such a serious blunder. Claiming medic as mafia on Day is poor play by any standards because it invites your eventual death.
Hopefully the last mafia can keep this game interesting, but we are definitely far ahead at this point. We've only lost 3 vanillas in exchange for half of the mafia team. The medic is still safely hidden so if he survives one more night without me dying, we be able to safely investigate the rest of the town and clinch victory.
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EDIT:1) The mafia may not know anything about game theory(information deficiency)
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So I'm not Mafia. I just did that during the night chat to get out of getting targeted to get one more night save in. Don't really care if you guys believe me at this point, but I really am the medic.
##Vote: Dahdum
Just so you know, if yo're wrong about me, you guys automatically lose.
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Oh wait. Just read the post above. FirmTofu said I returned as Mafia meaning he's clearly lying about his role.
##Unvote: Dahdum ##Vote: FirmTofu
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Again, if you don't believe me, realize that as soon as Tofu convinces you guys to lynch me, you lose. Make sure you read through all of Tofu's posts one more time before you cast your vote on me.
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@Gummy: It's not being wrong about you but being wrong about the next lynch that would make us lose. Even without Tofu confirming you mafia, your word is the least credible.
##Vote: Gummy
My guess for the last mafia is Aces or Dahdum as well. Having Gummy very actively trying to confuse town and the other mafia member somehow lurking and hidden seems like a good strategy. Tofu and Paschl are both too active and pro town for that.
I suggest Tofu to check Aces or Dahdum the following night. None of them were very active in this game so it's hard to guess. I'll check their filter later once more. If Tofu can get the crucial bit of information there will be a good chance for us to win this game.
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Now that the night phase is over and I've lived, I'll give a counter explanation of actions surrounding me from the very beginning.
1.) I pressured everybody to role claim to see if people would do something stupid. Claw and Tofu made questionable role claims.
2.) I put additional pressure on Claw by counter-revealing to see how he would react. Instead of backing down immediately in a reasonable manner or making some kind of convincing story, he just kept changing his story with, looking back, the probable intention to be as confusing as possible so as to somehow avoid getting targeted in night play. And just to be unpredictable and to troll.
3.) Night 1, Demorcef is lynched, because scum was genuinely confused by the accusations between me and Claw, somehow.
4.) Day 2, Claw gets lynched. I had all the reason going into the lynch to give him the boot seeing as his playstyle was consistent with either scum or a troll. Then at the last second he makes a goodbye post (with 30 minutes to go) that appeared to be a legit explanation that he never wanted to make during the course of the game. I felt full of anguish, but at that moment I knew I was wrong about his being scum and right about him being a troll. I changed my vote to no lynch in a last ditch effort to save him, but Paschl changed his vote to lynch second before he was to be saved.
5.) Night 2, I start spewing nonsense about how I'm Mafia so as to save myself for one more night. You will see how this is consistent if you go back and read over my post about why Claw's and Tofu's play were suspect. In particular, night play trolling is a proper example of case 1. The implications of it during night play are different, however, since you still get the chance to make a case for yourself, as I am now, during day play. Anyway, Matriarch gets killed.
6.) Day 3, Tofu puts is vote on me after claiming to be detective and having confirmed my guilt as Mafia. Matriarch just flipped as a VT, but Tofu already knew, assuming he was correct in being a detective. Therefore, Tofu, having lied about my alignment but having enough confidence to target Matriarch instead of one of the other inactives who he had not laid claim to, could only be operating under the certainty that Matriarch was indeed VT. Therefore, FirmTofu, given my information, can only be a Mafia Rolecop. I suspect he did use his check on me last night and he knows that I am medic. This also gives an explanation as to why he seemingly wasted a check on matriarch the night before. He knew for a fact that neither Claw nor I were scum, but he already knew that at least one of us was medic. Subsequently, he just used his check arbitrarily on the remaining townspeople to get information that might be more useful.
Suggested Course of action
1.) Now is the time to make counter claims. If I (or any VT) gets lynched today, it is an autoloss. (Since Tofu knows that I am medic, he will just target me tonight for the victory since I cannot protect myself). Everybody should reveal their role today, since we lose automatically on a mislynch and nolynch leads to 2/5 scum without medic, which strongly, strongly favors mafia.
2.) DO NOT vote me. If you vote me you lose. Plain and simple. Do not be swayed by peer pressure at this stage in the game. Mafia have two votes, and they will very likely use them together so as to increase their chance of immediate victory. That is not to say that you should clear people based on who they vote for. Use your own reasoning. Take a good 5 minutes and think it over before you vote.
3.) We must get a majority or we will have an automatic no lynch, which is terrible for the reasons described above. You need to stay active and make sure that your vote counts today. Think before you vote. In particular filter through the post history of the person you are considering to vote for and make sure you can point to incriminating evidence in their posts. Tofu has such incriminating, unexplained/mis-explained action. I do not. His accusation of me a few posts up doesn't actually contain any evidence incriminating me. His argument can be reduced to simply saying "I found out that he's mafia. Given that he's mafia, he screwed up in his play." Nowhere does he say "This is why Gummy is Mafia."
If you presume that I'm actually the medic, as I am, you can see that none of his accusations carry the slightest weight.
4.) A point of caution . Tofu may actually be bad and there might be a framer who targeted me last night. Then lynching him would lead to the same instant defeat. HOWEVER, this explanation is contingent on there being a framer, which given the random distribution of role assignment observed in previous games, is less than 1/2. A vote on tofu, then, is a gamble with winning expectation, but very high variance. Unfortunately, I can't say that there exists another vote, with the information I have, with positive expectation REGARDLESS of variance.
5.) Keep your eye on Paschl . He may be using feigned short temper to mask scummy play as emotionally influenced play. His last-minute vote-change to Claw after I, the person who had led the vendetta against Claw withdrew my vote, is hugely suspect.
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Since I call you out on this post in my previous post, I'll dismantle your arguments line by line.
On May 07 2012 18:37 FirmTofu wrote:I'd just like to shed some light on what Gummy did. It all started when Claw claimed medic and I claimed Detective right afterwards. Gummy did not want to attack into either of the two roles because the risk of a heal going through was too great. He saw my plan's potential and had to figure out some way to discredit it(and me) before it could come to fruition. Here's the critical part. He saw a hole in my logic and by extension in Claw's logic that he could exploit IF AND ONLY IF he could convince everyone that the mafia were going to play optimally. He used his game theory calculations as a veil to cover up the fact that he was basing everything on this primary underlying assumption--Mafia would act in their best possible interest. But would mafia really always act in their best possible interest, or would they be swayed by emotions and what they perceive the actions of others to be? Is this a numbers game, as Gummy asserts, or it is more psychological? I'll be the first to admit it. Gummy's logic wasn't fabricated. The problem was the underlying assumption. The assumption that should not have been assumed because the mafia: 1) May know anything about game theory (Information deficiency) 2) Could be Gummy himself, which he failed to acknowledge as a possibility. Which only supports my position as being medic 3) May choose their actions based upon suboptimal play because of WIFOM. If Gummy can predict optimal play, then supoptimal play BECOMES optimal, does it not? Suboptimal play does NOT become optimal even under WIFOM. If there is a mixed strategy solution, which in pretending to be Mafia during day play does not contain No mafia wants their night actions predicted by a town member, and if they are forced to play suboptimally to circumvent that, they that suboptimal play becomes optimal because it turns into the best course of action. Being unpredictable is only sometimes helpful. You play to maximize expectation. A medic cannot save himself, and the probability of a second save is less than 50%. A kill on me first night, assuming Claw was scum, would've been optimal regardless of predictability. Since he was not scum and merely trolling, my explanation for why I was the optimal target for mafia first night was correct. This provides no evidence that I am Mafia.So why did Gummy claim medic? A short-sighted plan for a new guy who thinks he knows everything there is to know about mafia. He wanted to prove to everyone on this site that he was a force to be reckoned with and his deceptive skills in the art of persuasion were top-notch. A pretentious douchebag? Perhaps. I wouldn't go that far. I'd say he was looking to prove himself and made a critical blunder that overlooked basic logic in favor of making a spectacle of himself. For all his knowledge of game theory, he couldn't run run a simple cost-benefit analysis to predict the repercussions of his actions. What should have gone through Gummy's brain on Day 1:+ Show Spoiler +If I claim medic and get Claw lynched... what will people think of me?
He will either flip vanilla townie or medic and both of those flips would make me look bad. If he flips vanilla townie, I might be able to get out of a lynch, but if he flips medic, I'm screwed.
How sure am I that this guy is a medic? Is he worth a lynch if he isn't?
But what's the point? Either way I end up looking bad for no real gains for my team! Yeah, I might be able to get a medic lynched, but that would be at the cost of my own life!
Conclusion: I should NOT claim medic and try to get Clawtrocity lynched.
There is no accusation until here. I am assumed to be Mafia and then this logic furthers the point that my play so far would have been highly suboptimal if I were scum. Nowhere does he give any evidence that I am scum.Remember that flip-flop thing he did on Day 1? That was your scum tell. I initially didn't believe it because I thought it was too obvious, and Gummy seemed like an intelligent guy, but that was my mistake. That was not a scum tell. This is a medic tell. That was entirely consistent with getting rid of a Mafia. As I had said many times before, I thought of this action as a separating equilibrium. If you filter through my post history you will see me saying over and over again "a medic for a scum is a good trade." If you're going to question my intelligence, at least pick an issue I didn't explicitly already account for. I thought Gummy was town only because I assumed that he was logical enough not to make such a serious blunder. Claiming medic as mafia on Day is poor play by any standards because it invites your eventual death. This is an obvious contradiction against what he said in the previous paragraph. There is nothing but rhetorical jujitsu here. Up until this point he has yet to give a shred of evidence that I am Mafia but has repeated that I am Mafia. This is "proof by repetition" at its most classic.Hopefully the last mafia can keep this game interesting, but we are definitely far ahead at this point. We've only lost 3 vanillas in exchange for half of the mafia team. The medic is still safely hidden so if he survives one more night without me dying, we be able to safely investigate the rest of the town and clinch victory. This analysis is mathematically incorrect, even if it assumed certainty about my alignment. 4v1 is far from a "far ahead" situation for the Mafia. 3v1 without any additional Host-provided information or medic is a worst case 67% win rate for Mafia (2/3 chance of lynching a townie. Nobody will no-lynch since no-lynch is autoloss). With medic it becomes 50/50. (1/3 chance of autowin by lynching medic. 1/3 chance of 50% guess on medic, 1/3 chance of autoloss by lynch = 50%)
In conclusion, my certainty that Tofu is Mafia is strengthened from my previous post. He does not even ACKNOWLEDGE the possibility of a framer and is single-mindedly pursuing a lynch against me. Let's assume, by way of contradiction, that Tofu is actually the detective since we know that he knows that there might be a framer, he knows that there is an autoloss in play if the framer targeted me. While making a vote for me would be correct either way, making a rhetorically senseless and apparently desperate attempt to lynch me is not consistent with the probability of there being a framer.... But let's take a step back.
Knowing that he would play in this way during the day, knowing that there would be a framer and that I was the most likely target of that framer, and knowing that a subsequent mislynch would be an auto-loss, Tofu should not have used his detection on me, since as long as my probability of being targeted by a framer is higher than anybody else, the probability of auto-losing as a result of his read would be strictly higher for me than for anybody else.
Thus, there is a contradiction in his play. Either he is lying about his read or he is lying about being detective.
I infer from this contradiction that, since both lies result in auto-losses for the town he knew that there is no framer, that he is scum. Furthermore, I infer from previous points about matriarch's lynch and previous read, that Tofu is not only scum, but a power role scum.
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If anybody is hesitant about "WHAT IF WE LYNCH THE DETECTIVE" just remember that at this point in the game all mislynches are equivalent. If we happen to lynch the detective, the detective being a townie, we lose just the same as if we lynched any other innocent townie.
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On May 07 2012 21:19 Gummy wrote: If anybody is hesitant about "WHAT IF WE LYNCH THE DETECTIVE" just remember that at this point in the game all mislynches are equivalent. If we happen to lynch the detective, the detective being a townie, we lose just the same as if we lynched any other innocent townie. Actually Mafia are allowed to communicate among themselves, so he might not be a power role and, instead, is just using information gained from his partner in crime. Nonetheless I believe there is a special role and that the special role is a rolecop.
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Another point. People keep discounting my math regarding probabilities as to the presence of roles. These roles are in fact generated by random numbers. Matt picked out the roles based on those generated here
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On May 07 2012 20:45 Ange777 wrote: @Gummy: It's not being wrong about you but being wrong about the next lynch that would make us lose. Even without Tofu confirming you mafia, your word is the least credible.
##Vote: Gummy
My guess for the last mafia is Aces or Dahdum as well. Having Gummy very actively trying to confuse town and the other mafia member somehow lurking and hidden seems like a good strategy. Tofu and Paschl are both too active and pro town for that.
I suggest Tofu to check Aces or Dahdum the following night. None of them were very active in this game so it's hard to guess. I'll check their filter later once more. If Tofu can get the crucial bit of information there will be a good chance for us to win this game. Thanks for identifying yourself as the second mafia.
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There is no additional lynch. As it stands it is 4-2. After lynching me it will be 3-2. After tonight it will be 2-2.
Your insistence, despite my very clear and repeated warnings that this is the last night make you very obviously scum.
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Tofu and Ange.... just when you think you have it in the bag, you get careless
WAKE UP ALL INACTIVES AND VOTE TOFU!
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MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA I AM THE BEST MAFIA PLAYER EVER!
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Gummy if youre a towny youre the worst towny ever. Youre getting lynched and its only your fault.
And Firm, if youre really the cop and peeked gummy... I cant even say anything.
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Lol. You would rather lose than let the facts inform you... Oh well :p
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Id rather lose than play with a guy who constantly centers the game around himself and FPSes way too much. That being said im not even close to believing youre town.
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You are way too emotional. I'm an idiot. Just try to win please
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I am trying to win, i already voted you. And my vote wont change.
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So you're reason for voting me is that I'm a terrible townie. If you're really going to vote me, can I trouble you to make a case behind your vote? If you are wrong, you lose.
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It is up to you. At this point in the game if the two mafia vote together + you, it is instant G_G in the scum's favor.
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my conscience is clean. youre scum. i dont need more of a case than this. if youre not im just gonna blame the loss on you and move on with my life.
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@Gummy: During both day 1 and day 2 you strongly push for a Claw lynch. Right before the lynch you switch your vote. You explain this by analyzing his good-bye post to be town. I can explain this by saying that having him flip town would prove you wrong and scummy which you wanted to prevent. You were so sure that we would not get all 5 votes together that you pushed very hard for this case so you'd look like a very pro town player.
During night 2 you claim mafia explaining that you want mafia to be convinced that we will lynch you the following day. Well I can explain you claimed mafia in order to fool us into believing your theory. Same logic.
Now on day 3 you have already voted dahdum, voted Tofu, suspected Paschl, suspected me. You sure you don't want to vote for Aces as well or at least suspect him?
On May 06 2012 02:46 Gummy wrote: Illogical, trolly, or generally scummy behavior should be taken as an indicator of being scum.
Your behaviour fits all three of them so yeah, you are scum. Besides, there is Tofu's check on you confirming you mafia.
Lynching you leaves us with 4 townies - 1 mafia. After night we will still have 3 townies - 1 mafia, of course there will be an additional lynch.
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On May 08 2012 02:16 Ange777 wrote:@Gummy: During both day 1 and day 2 you strongly push for a Claw lynch. Right before the lynch you switch your vote. You explain this by analyzing his good-bye post to be town. I can explain this by saying that having him flip town would prove you wrong and scummy which you wanted to prevent. You were so sure that we would not get all 5 votes together that you pushed very hard for this case so you'd look like a very pro town player. During night 2 you claim mafia explaining that you want mafia to be convinced that we will lynch you the following day. Well I can explain you claimed mafia in order to fool us into believing your theory. Same logic. Now on day 3 you have already voted dahdum, voted Tofu, suspected Paschl, suspected me. You sure you don't want to vote for Aces as well or at least suspect him? Show nested quote +On May 06 2012 02:46 Gummy wrote: Illogical, trolly, or generally scummy behavior should be taken as an indicator of being scum.
Your behaviour fits all three of them so yeah, you are scum. Besides, there is Tofu's check on you confirming you mafia. Lynching you leaves us with 4 townies - 1 mafia. After night we will still have 3 townies - 1 mafia, of course there will be an additional lynch.
There's no point in arguing my case further. It's sound, but you have the votes you need. No logic or reason will sway a stubborn heart like Paschl's.
Well played you and tofu
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Well, there's quite a bit of time left to change Paschl's mind. Out of game favors, Paschl? Here's a poem to get you to reconsider.
Paschl is an awesome guy His smile is sweet, his hair is fly. Hockey is his sport of choice. His ride is cooler than a 'Royce.
Paschl is my favorite man I am but his biggest fan! How very cool a man is he Oh Paschl, dear, I pray to thee
Change your vote! You are the key! ( to the town's victory )
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While I'm at it, since XIII hasn't started yet, here's some rebuttals (directed at the rest of the town).
On May 08 2012 02:16 Ange777 wrote:@Gummy: During both day 1 and day 2 you strongly push for a Claw lynch. Yes, and for good reason Right before the lynch you switch your vote. You explain this by analyzing his good-bye post to be town. Read his good-bye post one more time if you don't think that's good enough reason to risk the no-lynch I can explain this by saying that having him flip town would prove you wrong and scummy which you wanted to prevent. The only thing that would prove me wrong or scummy is if he flipped medic. My case was that either he was scum, or that he was playing in such a way that would be hurting the town. It turned out, unfortunately for us, to be the latter. You were so sure that we would not get all 5 votes together that you pushed very hard for this case so you'd look like a very pro town player. If I were Mafia, as Tofu and Ange are, I would be all in favor of getting rid of the innocent townie. Even better if it's a medic. I could say the same thing I'm saying to you now and just say "I wasn't online for his last post." But since I did not do that, you should take it to mean that I really did believe in his innocence and wanted to protect him for the sake of the town. This is called the intuitive criterion.During night 2 you claim mafia explaining that you want mafia to be convinced that we will lynch you the following day. Well I can explain you claimed mafia in order to fool us into believing your theory. Same logic. Of course it is. I wanted you to think, as you now do, that you have a clear and simple path to victory. If you got rid of a vanilla townie during the night and then used my apparent confession to lynch me during the day, the game would be the scum's. You two have basically revealed yourselves to be scum based on the apparent desperation and heavy rhetoric in your arguments, but I'm not really sure you care anymore since you have the votes you need to win, x_x. Now on day 3 you have already voted dahdum, voted Tofu, suspected Paschl, suspected me. You sure you don't want to vote for Aces as well or at least suspect him? My vote was on dahdum, before I refreshed the page and noticed Firm's accusation of me based on an alleged read (the first time I thought he was blindly echoing paschl's vote). Once I noticed he was lying about his read, and could not come up with a justifiable townsperson's rationale for lying about the read, I concluded that he must be Mafia. My accusation of you, ange, is based on your echoing his sentiment in this post, again, without any real substance. Furthermore, you posted after Claw's goodbye vote, yet you did not retract your vote as I did.Show nested quote +On May 06 2012 02:46 Gummy wrote: Illogical, trolly, or generally scummy behavior should be taken as an indicator of being scum.
Your behaviour fits all three of them so yeah, you are scum. Besides, there is Tofu's check on you confirming you mafia. Night play is a very different beast from day play. I pretended to be scum so as to have one last chance to make the case that I'm making before the town today, with the egocentric mentality that I would notice something that the inactive townies might not. Lynching you leaves us with 4 townies - 1 mafia. After night we will still have 3 townies - 1 mafia, of course there will be an additional lynch. Seeing as I'm the medic, lynching me makes it 3 townies - 2 mafia. Tonight, you win, ange!
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Gosh, why am I such a tryhard in a game when the townies consist of a troll, a proud and upstanding (but stubborn) hunk of a man, and a bunch of inactives.
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All of you could be scum, seriously.
Paschl mainly because he voted for Claw when you switched your vote, Gummy. Even though you were strongly convinced Gummy was the enemy and Claw was innocent, you still voted for his lynch. I can understand this from one point, but it looks very scummy from another.
FirmTofu and Gummy you two are seriously both so confusing, however, you both bring up some fine arguments. Will look into this deeper in a moment. Gummy, why are you so sure Ange777 is maffia? Stop throwing around random accusations and please explain. I'm suspecting him aswell.
But why would we not go for a save lynch and lynch the lurker, being dahdum? We should've done this on day one for christ sake.
##Vote: dahdum
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to put it simply, I don't have enough information about dahdum to say anything regarding that. See previous post with red text for my accusation of ange.
The key reason why I'm trying to vote tofu is that a mislynch today is an autoloss.
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I'd rather vote for Ange than Tofu then.
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Look here's my take on it:
Let's assume for a moment that Tofu is detective and Ange is a VT voting either of them off would result in a loss for the town.
That said, we should be voting ENTIRELY based on whoever is MOST LIKELY to be mafia with no other consideration for what roles might be. Tofu has been lying about being detective (which can't help the townspeople) so he must be scum.
While I'm reasonably confident that Ange is scum, I'd rather not take the risk of reduced certainty for no benefit.
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Edit:On May 08 2012 03:20 Gummy wrote: Look here's my take on it:
Let's assume for a moment that Tofu is detective and Ange is a VT voting either of them off would result in a loss for the town.
That said, we should be voting ENTIRELY based on whoever is MOST LIKELY to be mafia with no other consideration for what other roles they might be. Tofu has been lying about being detective (which can't help the townspeople) so he must be scum.
While I'm reasonably confident that Ange is scum, I'd rather not take the risk of reduced certainty for no benefit.
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Dont let the mafia fool you. Gummy should be lynched today. Theyre obviously gonna try to sway us today but were not gonna fall for it. Why would you even suspect Firm? He peeked Matriarch and Matriarch got killed. Thats no random event. The only way this can really happen is if the mafia thinks Firm is the cop and doesnt know who the medic is.
Also notice how Gummy suspect me earlier today, then makes a 180 to get me off him.
And Aces, its not like i wanted to lynch dahdum day1. Oh wait, i did. But Gummy himself made the best point why we should lynch him. We should be voting ENTIRELY based on whoever is MOST LIKELY to be mafia. Thats Gummy.
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As of now, I don't have any reason to suspect Tofu is lying. He outed himself after a double medic claim, assuming he would be protected (safe assumption) and has been forthright in his checks. I didn't like the Matriarch check but the check on Gummy is logical to me. There is only a chance of a framer + a chance they frame Gummy, and mafia/town alike will use that same defense, so playing the odds sounds right to me.
##Vote: Gummy
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On May 08 2012 04:13 dahdum wrote: As of now, I don't have any reason to suspect Tofu is lying. He outed himself after a double medic claim, assuming he would be protected (safe assumption) and has been forthright in his checks. I didn't like the Matriarch check but the check on Gummy is logical to me. There is only a chance of a framer + a chance they frame Gummy, and mafia/town alike will use that same defense, so playing the odds sounds right to me.
##Vote: Gummy
That's not correct. He outed himself after a single medic claim. I only questioned Claw's medic claim afterwards.
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His outing was extremely suspect as demorcef, myself, and a number of others pointed out. Also, it seems like none of the townies really care about the outcome of this game and are voting on false beliefs or based simply on who they like.
I think my best bet, given how strong a case I've made for myself, is just to be quiet and let you guys think it over.
If you really want to win, the choice is obvious. Vote for tofu. If not, then by all means vote me off and get a big fat "I told you so" when the game ends during the night cycle.
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On May 08 2012 05:43 Gummy wrote: His outing was extremely suspect as demorcef, myself, and a number of others pointed out. Also, it seems like none of the townies really care about the outcome of this game and are voting on false beliefs or based simply on who they like.
I think my best bet, given how strong a case I've made for myself, is just to be quiet and let you guys think it over.
If you really want to win, the choice is obvious. Vote for tofu. If not, then by all means vote me off and get a big fat "I told you so" when the game ends during the night cycle.
*cough*antispew*cough* Given all that you posted itt you now want to lynch the guy who claimed seer while there hasnt been a counterclaim and his peek has been killed tonight? It makes no sense.
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FWIW, at this point second mafia is dahdum rather than ange. I guess it's just poorly reasoned play all around.
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On May 08 2012 06:00 paschl wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2012 05:43 Gummy wrote: His outing was extremely suspect as demorcef, myself, and a number of others pointed out. Also, it seems like none of the townies really care about the outcome of this game and are voting on false beliefs or based simply on who they like.
I think my best bet, given how strong a case I've made for myself, is just to be quiet and let you guys think it over.
If you really want to win, the choice is obvious. Vote for tofu. If not, then by all means vote me off and get a big fat "I told you so" when the game ends during the night cycle. *cough*antispew*cough* Given all that you posted itt you now want to lynch the guy who claimed seer while there hasnt been a counterclaim and his peek has been killed tonight? It makes no sense. There is no detective. That's why there's no counterclaim...
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On May 08 2012 06:06 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2012 06:00 paschl wrote:On May 08 2012 05:43 Gummy wrote: His outing was extremely suspect as demorcef, myself, and a number of others pointed out. Also, it seems like none of the townies really care about the outcome of this game and are voting on false beliefs or based simply on who they like.
I think my best bet, given how strong a case I've made for myself, is just to be quiet and let you guys think it over.
If you really want to win, the choice is obvious. Vote for tofu. If not, then by all means vote me off and get a big fat "I told you so" when the game ends during the night cycle. *cough*antispew*cough* Given all that you posted itt you now want to lynch the guy who claimed seer while there hasnt been a counterclaim and his peek has been killed tonight? It makes no sense. There is no detective. That's why there's no counterclaim... That or the detective is one of the inactives.
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On May 08 2012 06:06 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2012 06:00 paschl wrote:On May 08 2012 05:43 Gummy wrote: His outing was extremely suspect as demorcef, myself, and a number of others pointed out. Also, it seems like none of the townies really care about the outcome of this game and are voting on false beliefs or based simply on who they like.
I think my best bet, given how strong a case I've made for myself, is just to be quiet and let you guys think it over.
If you really want to win, the choice is obvious. Vote for tofu. If not, then by all means vote me off and get a big fat "I told you so" when the game ends during the night cycle. *cough*antispew*cough* Given all that you posted itt you now want to lynch the guy who claimed seer while there hasnt been a counterclaim and his peek has been killed tonight? It makes no sense. There is no detective. That's why there's no counterclaim...
So on day1 after a medic claims the mafia decides to claim itt with the most common town role and expects to get lucky? Doesnt sond right.
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Be more precise with your language. Are you talking about me or about tofu. Look at how the random generator works. I posted it on the previous page.
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And why does dahdum even sign up for this thread. Presuming he's a townie he posts once a day without reading anything except the last few posts and then votes based on a reasoning, which is an incorrect recollection of the events that took place.
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On May 08 2012 06:24 Gummy wrote: Be more precise with your language. Are you talking about me or about tofu. Look at how the random generator works. I posted it on the previous page.
Is this another mafia claim? I was talking about Tofu.
And how do you even know a generator like this was used? I could just aswell see him having 5-7 finished setups and rolling a dice instead of the method wikipedia uses.
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Aces is the last mafia and Gummy is already dead by now.
Votes on Gummy(Need 4 to lynch): paschl FirmTofu Ange777 dahdum
GG.
I didn't even read his counter-arguments because they are all Gummy flailing at town hoping to appeal to emotion.
For the record, Claw's fallacies were quite on target this game. It's a shame you all killed him instead of Gummy.
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On May 08 2012 06:36 FirmTofu wrote: Aces is the last mafia and Gummy is already dead by now.
Votes on Gummy(Need 4 to lynch): paschl FirmTofu Ange777 dahdum
GG.
I didn't even read his counter-arguments because they are all Gummy flailing at town hoping to appeal to emotion.
For the record, Claw's fallacies were quite on target this game. It's a shame you all killed him instead of Gummy. There was not a single appeal to emotion in any of my rebuttals. The only appeal to emotion was my poem for Paschl.
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On May 08 2012 06:31 paschl wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2012 06:24 Gummy wrote: Be more precise with your language. Are you talking about me or about tofu. Look at how the random generator works. I posted it on the previous page. Is this another mafia claim? I was talking about Tofu. And how do you even know a generator like this was used? I could just aswell see him having 5-7 finished setups and rolling a dice instead of the method wikipedia uses. How is this a mafia claim. Your proposed method also precludes double-medic.
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On May 08 2012 03:14 AcesRequiem wrote: All of you could be scum, seriously.
Paschl mainly because he voted for Claw when you switched your vote, Gummy. Even though you were strongly convinced Gummy was the enemy and Claw was innocent, you still voted for his lynch. I can understand this from one point, but it looks very scummy from another.
FirmTofu and Gummy you two are seriously both so confusing, however, you both bring up some fine arguments. Will look into this deeper in a moment. Gummy, why are you so sure Ange777 is maffia? Stop throwing around random accusations and please explain. I'm suspecting him aswell.
But why would we not go for a save lynch and lynch the lurker, being dahdum? We should've done this on day one for christ sake.
##Vote: dahdum
This is a waste of a vote at this point. Since the hammer doesn't come down until 8PM EDT tomorrow, I'll just try my best to refute nonsense. Even if you believe dahdum is Mafia, tofu is the surer bet.
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As a sidebar, it seems like the only way to make this game sufficiently fun/hardcore for my tastes is to put some money on the line so people actually care enough to read and critically engage with posts. Given that the day is 48 hours, that should give plenty of time to anybody committed to this game to do a good job.
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United States5684 Posts
On April 28 2012 04:20 Mattchew wrote:Rules: Cheating:Cheating includes (but is not limited to): 9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits.
Gummy there will be no betting or money involved
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Wrap-up for a few hours:
@paschl: Do a filter of Tofu's previous posts all the way back to when he accuses me today. Does that sound like the play of a scum or a legitimate detective. Dismissing legitimate arguments as "emotional" is a very clever way to deflect without having to say a word in response. When it comes down to logic vs. sophistry, I know you're smart enough to vote in the right direction.
@dahdum: Get your ass back in this thread and read ffs. You gave a reason for your vote that was flatly incorrect. Go back to page 6 and see how that conversation played out.
@aces: Your vote for dahdum is a waste. If you don't put it on tofu, this game is over.
@Ange/Tofu: Continue to be impressed with your play, though I recommend actually rebutting logic with logic in any subsequent non-newbie games you play!
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On May 08 2012 06:49 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2012 04:20 Mattchew wrote:Rules: Cheating:Cheating includes (but is not limited to): 9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits. Gummy there will be no betting or money involved Is there a TL Mafia leaderboard or something like that? Something to motivate people to actually care about the outcome of the game? One of the things I love about TL is that members are generally quite hardcore and play to win. At least 3/9 people in this particular game (I won't mention names, but you know who you are) have not played to win, either by way of inactivity/inattention or via intentionally suboptimal play.
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United States5684 Posts
On May 08 2012 06:55 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2012 06:49 Mattchew wrote:On April 28 2012 04:20 Mattchew wrote:Rules: Cheating:Cheating includes (but is not limited to): 9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits. Gummy there will be no betting or money involved Is there a TL Mafia leaderboard or something like that? Something to motivate people to actually care about the outcome of the game? One of the things I love about TL is that members are generally quite hardcore and play to win. At least 3/9 people in this particular game (I won't mention names, but you know who you are) have not played to win, either by way of inactivity/inattention or via intentionally suboptimal play. Drop this conversation now. Save it for post game and leaving the in-game moderation to the Mods
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Ill reread Tofu asap but his change of mind could also be because, you know, he peeked you.
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the lynch is tomorrow right? 2day dayphase is just too long imo.
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United States5684 Posts
On May 08 2012 08:14 paschl wrote: the lynch is tomorrow right? 2day dayphase is just too long imo. it is completely standard.
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yeah but people seem to be losing interest. but ill stop talking about it and save it for postgame too.
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You're right Gummy, but since the maffia has got you wrapped up and you have the majorities of the votes to kill you it doesn't matter whether I change my vote or not. I have no idea anymore who to believe and who not to believe when it comes down to voting on Gummy or Tofu, but I'm pretty sure dahdum is maffia. The way he has been inactive and posting so little is just pure scum play. Whenever he votes, his reasoning makes no sense at all and had been already proven incorrect earlier in the game. Take your attention from Gummy, Tofu, and who else you might suspect and get this scum out please. Thank you. Gummy, my vote stays.
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On May 08 2012 06:26 Gummy wrote: And why does dahdum even sign up for this thread. Presuming he's a townie he posts once a day without reading anything except the last few posts and then votes based on a reasoning, which is an incorrect recollection of the events that took place.
TBH I only skim your posts now as you've been all over the place this game (the poem was cool though). I was incorrect in thinking you claimed before Tofu, but regardless I still believe Tofu to be DT, so my vote stands.
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United States5684 Posts
the vote count is currently
4 - Gummy Paschl firmtofu ange777 dahdum
1 - firmtofu Gummy
1 - Dahdum AcesRequiem
Day ends in 15 minutes If theres any wrong PM me now
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dead air, dead villager? probably doesnt matter, the way gummy played we cant ever let him live.
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United States5684 Posts
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GG Guys
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well played tho ange/dahdum. more to ange tho since dahdum basically didnt do anything. and thanks for hosting.
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I don't know. I guess town really just had detective and medic as blue roles. Maybe we will get the setup later?
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United States5684 Posts
On May 09 2012 09:04 paschl wrote: unbalanced much? you had a medic and a detective. Don't blame me for town's awful play
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But actually you should thank Gummy. He made it so much easier
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On May 09 2012 09:06 Mattchew wrote:you had a medic and a detective. Don't blame me for town's awful play
uh a detective. in a game with a godfather and a framer. thats useful. and maybe im just bitter, its true the town didnt play well but if you want to tell me that this setup is well balanced id seriously question your oppinion.
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Yay!
I was very active in the QT thread....the idea was to be sketchy enough to get Tofu to check & clear me, while avoiding an outright lynch.
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But isn't the setup chosen randomly?
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United States5684 Posts
On May 09 2012 09:07 paschl wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2012 09:06 Mattchew wrote:On May 09 2012 09:04 paschl wrote: unbalanced much? you had a medic and a detective. Don't blame me for town's awful play uh a detective. in a game with a godfather and a framer. thats useful. and maybe im just bitter, its true the town didnt play well but if you want to tell me that this setup is well balanced id seriously question your oppinion. If everyone had not claimed, DT coulda "cleared" 2 people or hit 1 scum out of 6 people. Gummy did heal the DT everynight i believe (i have to go back and check) and you guys had 3 terrible lynches.
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United Kingdom35817 Posts
Looking in, Gummy made the game pretty difficult to play for a lot of town.
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United States5684 Posts
Marvel comes from a game that was a jailor/dt vs goon/rb 9 man setup where they mislynched day 1 and mislynched the DT day 2... the JK and DT literally provided nothing to town and they still won.
Personally I want newbie games to stop depending on blue roles even in this game, anyone who was scum hunting basically pegged Dahdum and Ange as scum
Also, towns no-lynch day 1 was so bad
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United Kingdom35817 Posts
Thanks for the advert Matt :D
In our game the loud/eccentric townie got killed quite early. I wonder if this made a difference.
More experienced towns find it easier to deal with players like Gummy than newbie towns, I feel.
Edit: this is not me blaming Gummy for town's loss btw. Just saying it can be hard for newbie towns.
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The Gummy/Claw debates helped us (which is why we left they both alive), but generally just the debating of blue roles and trying to confirm innocents worked in our favor. With the DT out, the medic was going to be busy every night.
First day no-lynch was pretty awesome.
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United States22154 Posts
@people claiming inbalance, its usual for setups of this size to have one power role, you guys got two, one of them hands down the best power role in mini-setups. No complaints, if you lost its through your own actions.
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maybe im just not used to these kind of setups. the 9er games i play have one cop and no mafia power roles. and if there are other power roles theyre written out.
i think having a godfather AND framer in the same game without explicitly stating it makes it imbalanced. but thats just my 2 cents. it makes the cop basically useless. the medic is ridiculously strong though, gotta give you that. although what can the medic do but protect the useless cop?
and fwiw ive been after dahdum the whole game, didnt suspect ange tho. id also like to get some outside voice on gummys play.
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United States5684 Posts
Btw Mementoss was an awesome co-host and did everything asked of him and more.
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Post-game. If a medic is in play and people know that a medic is in play but don't know his identity, games I've played before center around role claims, counter-claims and then the cleared player leading the town. Unfortunately, claw made a fake medic claim, which is the best thing that the Mafia can hope for. Thus, I attacked him since that play was just wrong.
Then I turned my attention to Tofu as a result of his willingness to reveal after a medic claimed.
It seemed like this game was mostly townies making stupid decisions regarding role claims and votes, and me yelling at everybody, and then everybody getting mad that I was yelling at everybody.
Fun game. I think my next game isn't going to be a newbie mini, though. Don't know if my heart can take this!
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All I will say that this was really really poor town play. Mafia didn't play well either, they didn't have to do anything cause no one scum hunted. This setup was balanced so players dont complain. Analysis coming soon.
On May 09 2012 09:07 paschl wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2012 09:06 Mattchew wrote:On May 09 2012 09:04 paschl wrote: unbalanced much? you had a medic and a detective. Don't blame me for town's awful play uh a detective. in a game with a godfather and a framer. thats useful. and maybe im just bitter, its true the town didnt play well but if you want to tell me that this setup is well balanced id seriously question your oppinion.
This is why you rely on hunting scum and power roles. I was playing the game from a players perspective see if you think the game is still imba after reading analysis.
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Actually I think Claw's fake medic claim was ok, he would have gotten killed in the night and then you could step forward with your real medic claim, or just remain hidden completely. Very likely we kill him first or second night, wasting a chance to hit a blue.
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On May 01 2012 08:59 Gummy wrote: List of hypothesized roles and corresponding claims: Townies: 1 Detective 1 Medic 2 Vanilla Townie - Gummy, Paschl 2 Other roles?
Scum 1 Framer - Ange777 1 Rolecop teehee
Also the day one claims were awful, especially the fake claim medic from town. With gummy being the actual medic I can't really blame him for thinking claw was scum. Tofu, you were basically begging for them to either roleblock you or frame your targets depending on which power role they had by claiming day one. Or for scum to just shoot you.
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XII Analysis/Notes
Day 1
1.) Dahdum + Show Spoiler +-Shares notes of summary of the game, not really helpful. Easy way to post as scum. Could be newbie scum not knowing what to talk about. But he should have something to say about the claim no? Vague, and non committal. Scum.
2.) Gummy (claim medic) + Show Spoiler +-Playing anti town, spamming up the thread with fluffy posts, trying to bring out role claims, and guess the set-up, most active poster right now. Wants to lay low. Suspects Paschl. Not sure if newbie scum would post this much. Requests medic right away. Very cocky. -Votes claimed medic, reasoning, bad claim. (see LIII for reference of why this is bad) -Claims medic himself??? So confused right now. -Lists and polls and spam, and avoiding and scum hunting. -Counter claims Medic, this proves my feeling about Claw lieing - Making way too much assumptions -You kill SCUM, you DONT kill bad town. This sub optimal play theory is bullshit.
3.) AcesRequiem + Show Spoiler +- Posting useful stuff, about the claim possibility, needs to scum hunt. -Wants to vote claimed blues... wat. (this is before triangle of blue) -seems town
4.) Matriarch + Show Spoiler +-claims vanilla, just lurking
5.) DeMorcerf + Show Spoiler +- Posting legit thoughts on important things. Transparent. Townie.
6.) FirmTofu (claims DT) + Show Spoiler +- Thinks gummy and claw are town. Dislikes Paschl. Angee is scum, doesn’t say why. - Could be scum, trying to get attention away from themselves by buddying with super active, and claimed blue. (since scum might shoot blue tonight) Picks a target for no reason. -Claims dt, asks claw to heal him. So he will get one night of checks. And after night 2 both blues will be dead if the claims are true. -Motivations as town: Wants to get Medic protection, doesn’t realize the limitations of one check after killing both the medic and DT -_-. -Motivations as scum: Stays alive for first few days, can use fake check to direct the lynch. Can soak up a medic protect. Can bring out the real DT. -Ballsy move to fake claim DT with sanity guaranteed as scum as one first mislynch check confirms you as scum, I think it is legit. -Possibility that they are both scum, really doubt it cause of their obvious connection -Firmtofu is missing alot of logic, he is forgetting about RB and assuming town has 2 medics and a dt. -His meta got him killed for bad town play before. -towns motivation is to kill scum, NOT stay alive.
7.) Clawtrocity (claim medic) + Show Spoiler +-Claims medic on first post....says hes ONE of the medics, trying to protect himself from insta lynch if counter claim. Saving his own ass as scum? Saying he is might be mafia trying to catch a shot, saying he is going to protect dt. If not dead night 2 he is scum. Calls out gummy. -Motivations for doing this as town: is VT trying to grab night shot. -Motivations for doing as scum: Keep yourself alive first couple days. Trying to grab a counter role claim. No real proof required for medic. Just always say you mis-medic’d. -I doubt a scum would draw attention to themselves like this on first post. -admits his claim was fake, votes gummy wat is this I don’t even.
8.) paschl + Show Spoiler +-Doesn’t use newbie card, isn’t afraid to post. Calls Gummy town. Disagrees with gummy. -Paschl starts off with useless list, but actually does the first hint of scum hunting in this game. Lines up with my thoughts. Townie.
9.) Ange777 + Show Spoiler +- Two smiley faces doesn’t contribute to the thread. Trying too hard to look town scumscumscum. Calls Gummy out on his scummy role claiming idea. Lurking. -Defensive towards gummy for no reason.
General Thoughts: If the two claims are actually true, town has already lost this game. They will be so demoralized by losing both blues in two nights, and it’s not like they are scum hunting at the moment. If one claim is fake it should be an easy one scum for the town.
If FirmTofu and Claw aren’t both dead night 2 lynch into them. Its too risky for mafia not to lynch Claw night 1 now. As they can’t leave a co-operating DT medic combo alive. ATM I think both are telling the truth or claw is lying. Claiming roles is so bad this early in the game no matter what the circumstances, if you lie, everyone thinks your scum, it just causes so much confusion. Also, mafia already has 90% of the information, only thing they don’t have is who is blue and what roles are in the game, and town wants to give them this information? Why? Its town’s ONLY information edge over scum.
Town is 24 Hours into the game, Nobody is scum hunting/Discussing who to lynch. The pressure has been on nobody. I think only Paschl has made a legit case, not just saying I think this person is scummy. Someone needs to pressure gummy, to see if he is just playing bad town, or purposely screwing up all discussion in the thread.
Gummy counter claims medic..I think he is telling the truth. However, it could be gummy being a really smart scum with the counter claim, convince a lynch onto Claw, who flips medic, then you lose a medic and DT in one cycle. Claw is most likely playing some badly thought out vanilla. The detective role is already wasted, mafia should have RB, and RB the detective and kill the medic. Then kill the detective night 2. Aka, detective gets 0 reports, useless.
People still aren’t really scum hunting, its more of policy lynch all liars. Basing everything on roles, and not actually mafia agenda and scummy action. No pressure on lurkers to post at all. Mafia is probably laughing right now as Town vs Town kill themselves fast.
Although I think gummy is medic and claw isn’t, claws “claim” looked totally fake, it seemed like a VT trying to take a hit over the real medic. This fake claim makes no sense as mafia, its pretty obvious there won’t be 2 medics in 9 person game, so a counter claim would kill half their team, with no pressure on them. However, he seems to be protecting his ass from counter claim by saying there might be 2 medics. I think this fake claim was bad town play, and lured out the town detective and medic.
If town is lucky there is no RB (doubt it). Kill dahdum, let mafia kill the medic, and get a report on claw to see if he is VT or scum. The only problem with this is possibility of a GF, might give back false report. The reason to check claw, is because if gummy flips medic it does not mean claw is auto scum. If claw flips scum, this does mean gummy is most likely medic. If scum believes gummy over claw (if they both are town) then scum will RB gummy and kill the detective night 1. Making gummy look bad for not protecting the DT.
About the no-lynch, I think it is a better option than lynching into the claims at this point. I would like to see a lynch into dahdum or a lurker/semi lurker. No scum-hunting for all of day 1, Hurrah! I would like to put most the blame on gummy, for spamming the thread and being so cocky, but no one even tried to scum hunt. Boo. Also, Gummy is being annoying and playing anti-town, it doesn’t mean he is scum, he should start engaging pressure and scum hunting rather than spam. Pretty suicidal unproductive day one, but the way people reacted to the claims will give more information when people start showing up dead.
If mafia doesn’t kill the three claimers they will kill DeMorcaf. They will not kill gummy as he is causing more harm and confusion and helping the mafia. They might not want to kill claw because no one believes him, and this situation is leaving town confused. They can’t kill Firmtofu, unless they 100% know the medic. RB him and kill firmtofu, which means one medic is scum.
Night 1
General Thoughts: The continuation of no helpful discussion creeps into the night, except that now, no one is posting for the full night cycle. No further reads can be established, I hope a couple people will post there last minute reads with at least a couple thought out cases and situations before nights end.
Mafia killed DeMorcaf. Interesting, lets wait to see what the claimers say, it is much more likely that 2 of them are lieing now. FirmTofu will probably give back a townie. I can’t see him actually being a DT and getting back a check, I think mafia has a RB unless they forgot to use it. Unless Firmtofu is lieing about his claim, which is really risky as mafia.
Day 2
1.) Dahdum + Show Spoiler +-calls firmtofu out for his bad check -first to bring up idea of no lynch again -still scum 2.) Gummy + Show Spoiler +-frustrated starting to post somewhat better but not pressuring anyone, seems concerned most likely actually medic. 3.) AcesRequiem + Show Spoiler +-inactive, either laughing scum, or doesn’t care about game 4.) Matriarch + Show Spoiler +-apparently checks out town, inactive as fuck 6.) FirmTofu + Show Spoiler +-checked matriarch returned town, makes no sense cause mafia didn’t RB..... Its an okay check since the person is unknown but why not check a semi lurker? 7.) Clawtrocity + Show Spoiler +-Claw still doesn’t understand that there is not 2 medics and a DT for sure. He is still saying things like mafia too scared to kill in this love triangle. Really makes no sense, seeming more and more scum. 8.) paschl + Show Spoiler +-paschl is using tons of WIFOM, which is fine for starting discussion for the day, seems genuinely concerned, townie. 9.) Ange777 + Show Spoiler +-Brings up good points want to lynch either gummy or claw, cant rely on mafia to solve this
General Thoughts: This no lynch really hurt them, if it is true that mafia has no role blocker, and there is a medic alive then town is in an okay situation, they have another free check tonight. Looks like another no-lynch no one is talking about anything. Pressuring players hasn’t been figured out by most players, and consolidating on a person to vote won’t happen. Another free mafia kill. Im having a hard time getting any reads because of no discussion. Another no lynch is fine, cause if Firmtofu is telling the truth, he can get another free check cause mafia obviously doesn’t have RB, and one of the medics can keep him protected until mafia kills the blues. Lynching into the medics is a really bad idea if town believes the DT claim, because if you hit the wrong one, you let mafia kill the DT.
Night 2
General Thoughts: Nothing happened lol
Day 3
General Thoughts/Notes: Interesting, Matriach was killed. This makes little sense, Matriach was not contributing anything to the game. The only reason she would be killed is because she was a confirmed townie. Mafia could be scared of a medic, and that is why they are not killing the DT. But to me the game cannot be balanced with a DT and medic without a RB. There is a strong possibility that FirmTofu lied about his DT claim and kill Matriach to give himself town credit. I wouldn’t necessarily trust anything he says.
If mafia doesn’t have a RB, then there is a good chance the only blue town has is one medic or one DT. This gameplay has been too focused on ROLES and not scumhunting so its impossible to get a decent read on anyone. FirmTofu could be faking DT to get swing late game, and killed Matriach for his town credit and to waste towns medic on him all game, using this as an excuse to why scum never killed him. One of Gummy or FirmTofu should be scum, if not all logic just falls apart in this game.
Despite all these comments, since its currently 4-2 the only logical action to to no lynch and let scum help the numbers, imo. Even though the night kill probably won’t reveal anything. I still think gummy is medic unfortunately. Scum will actually probably be players that did nothing all game.
^^Everything in here was in game on the fly, I did not mean to offend anyone at all. Do not take offense please. Use this analysis to help your thought process and to get better at the game.
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If you want specific advice let me know and I will give you what I thought of your play and where to improve.
Here is some general town advice.
DONT RELY ON POWER ROLES!
Scum hunt. Push reads. Pressure players. Generate discussion. Gather more evidence. Repeat.
When thinking about finding scum, think about it like this, Scum motivation for doing/saying this? Town motivation for doing/saying this? If you are unsure of a players opinion get them to clarify. If they are scum they could slip up. You may be reading a town players poor writing wrong.
Read the guides please. I don't think anyone in this game read the guides or didn't follow their advice.
Don't worry, its your first game. You will get better.
If I had to pick MVP of the game: Pascl -> Would have been demorcef but he died so quickly. That doesn't mean the play was good, it just was better than others.
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Nice analysis Ill stop the balance talk now since its useless, ive played too little games with setups like this to really give a good oppinion. And there was little scumhunting but everytime you tried to scumhunt Gummy came in, said your case doesnt make sense and continued on his course towards claw.
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Looks legit. I definitely made the mistake that thinking bad play = scum.
I incorrectly thought, then, that hunting bad play was equivalent to hunting scum.
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when you made that post saying lynching suboptimal play should be preferred to lynching all liars my head nearly exploded.
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United States5684 Posts
btw on day 3 by voting gummy, you were saying that you 100% believed that acesrequiem and gummy were scum, because otherwise you are willing to admit that atleast 1 scum is on your lynch, thus making it bad in LYLO... also aces, by not voting gummy as town, that is actually a message you should have been broadcasting that you were town meaning atleast 1 scum was on that lynch in lylo. TBH that was the only situation (4 - 2) where a no-lynch would have been the best play (over a mislynch)
and mementoss has super great analysis and some awesome fluff writing. I got unexpectedly busy (due to the NJ Devils playoff run) So i apologize for cutting off the fluff writing
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Wow the mass roleclaim makes so much more sense now that Gummy was medic. It was early in my opinion though. Town definetely needed more pressuring to draw out scummy posts. More discussion.
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Ah, sigh. It was a coinflip. I bet against the possibility of framer because I saw a high probability chance that I would lynch Gummy if an innocent popped up had I checked someone else.
Honestly, I didn't believe Gummy was mafia until I got a guilty on him. Then, I forced myself to rationalize the check and convince everyone else to vote for him.
Like everyone was saying, you can't rely on the detective all the time, we've gotta be scumhunting too. Gummy threw me off completely and I never really recovered even though I had Ange high on my scum list day 2.
Any tips for me to improve?
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I will be posting my analysis and thoughts on the game, probably tomorrow (maybe the day after.)
Congrats to mafia for the successful win.
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I don't personally think this setup is good for players who haven't played a single game before, maybe the disclaimer should suggest playing a more standard one first (SNMM). It's difficult for even experienced players to ignore DT checks and this one had a completely useless DT. While learning not to rely on roles is an important lesson, I don't think it is a recipe for a fun game that will keep completely new players interested in mafia.
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Yeah, there was a lot of inactivity and very little scum hunting which made this game quite easy for dahdum and me. But I don't want to complain
I wasn't even sure that Tofu would check Gummy instead was afraid I'd get checked that night. Surprisingly it worked.
I would love some advice on my play. Thanks!
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United States5684 Posts
On May 09 2012 16:12 syllogism wrote: I don't personally think this setup is good for players who haven't played a single game before, maybe the disclaimer should suggest playing a more standard one first (SNMM). It's difficult for even experienced players to ignore DT checks and this one had a completely useless DT. While learning not to rely on roles is an important lesson, I don't think it is a recipe for a fun game that will keep completely new players interested in mafia. Dt could have checked anyone but 2 people and got a correct read back... The framer could not frame themselves so they still had a chance on n1 finding half the mafia team... 1 mislynch from a scum check would also Prove there to be a framer... If anyone had pushed scum reads and town hadnt mass claimed then town woulda most likely won day 3
Also gm says to not baby the newbs... So I didnt
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On May 09 2012 20:38 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2012 16:12 syllogism wrote: I don't personally think this setup is good for players who haven't played a single game before, maybe the disclaimer should suggest playing a more standard one first (SNMM). It's difficult for even experienced players to ignore DT checks and this one had a completely useless DT. While learning not to rely on roles is an important lesson, I don't think it is a recipe for a fun game that will keep completely new players interested in mafia. Dt could have checked anyone but 2 people and got a correct read back... The framer could not frame themselves so they still had a chance on n1 finding half the mafia kp... 1 mislynch from a scum check would also Prove there to be a framer... If anyone had pushed scum reads and town hadnt mass claimed then town woulda most likely won day 3 It's not a correct check because the target could still be a gf/framed. As soon as a framer flips or actually even earlier when town realizes that there is no roleblocker. Nothing wrong with the setup, I just think complete new player games shouldn't have to take such things into account. Towns in these games are always going to believe a green check and similarly a red check, no matter what, as long as the DT himself isn't suspicious.
Towns in new player games already have a disadvantage due to good analysis being sparse, I don't think it's necessary to mislead them with roles too. I suppose having a few experienced players in these games could help.
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On May 09 2012 17:34 Ange777 wrote:Yeah, there was a lot of inactivity and very little scum hunting which made this game quite easy for dahdum and me. But I don't want to complain I wasn't even sure that Tofu would check Gummy instead was afraid I'd get checked that night. Surprisingly it worked. I would love some advice on my play. Thanks!
I think Gummy claiming mafia helped your plan a lot ^^
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We were considering to kill Gummy night 2. But his play was controversial enough to get him lynched without this mafia claim so we then changed our minds. I actually didn't think that anyone of you would pay much attention to this mafia claim.
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Tbh i think it might figure into the cops decision whom to check. And maybe its different here but people who claim mafia can never be allowed to live through the game. If only to avoid the postgame "haha i was mafia, claimed mafia and still won".
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Well this was my first game of forum mafia and I only played the Werewolf game twice with friends so I don't know much about common strategies.
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On May 09 2012 21:41 paschl wrote: Tbh i think it might figure into the cops decision whom to check. And maybe its different here but people who claim mafia can never be allowed to live through the game. If only to avoid the postgame "haha i was mafia, claimed mafia and still won".
That usually doesnt happen. Than again usually no one claims mafia -_-
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On May 09 2012 12:42 FirmTofu wrote: Ah, sigh. It was a coinflip. I bet against the possibility of framer because I saw a high probability chance that I would lynch Gummy if an innocent popped up had I checked someone else.
Honestly, I didn't believe Gummy was mafia until I got a guilty on him. Then, I forced myself to rationalize the check and convince everyone else to vote for him.
Like everyone was saying, you can't rely on the detective all the time, we've gotta be scumhunting too. Gummy threw me off completely and I never really recovered even though I had Ange high on my scum list day 2.
Any tips for me to improve?
TBH you got really lucky. If mafia team had a RB you would have got 0 checks off and wasted your ability. Claiming really made no sense. After you realized mafia had no RB it should have been obvious that they would have either GF or framer or both to balance out the DT.
I played with you one game where you got mislynched day 1. I think you need to work on actually hunting scum and convincing people of your reads and pushing and pressing people. Don't claim until you get a red check next time. Try to post pro town and establish your innocence and post things that promote discussion.
Again. Push your reads. It doesn't matter who you think is scum if you can't convince others that the said person is scum.
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United Kingdom35817 Posts
On May 09 2012 21:51 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2012 21:41 paschl wrote: Tbh i think it might figure into the cops decision whom to check. And maybe its different here but people who claim mafia can never be allowed to live through the game. If only to avoid the postgame "haha i was mafia, claimed mafia and still won". That usually doesnt happen. Than again usually no one claims mafia -_-
You might call claiming mafia a 'suboptimal' play
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On May 09 2012 21:54 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2012 21:51 zelblade wrote:On May 09 2012 21:41 paschl wrote: Tbh i think it might figure into the cops decision whom to check. And maybe its different here but people who claim mafia can never be allowed to live through the game. If only to avoid the postgame "haha i was mafia, claimed mafia and still won". That usually doesnt happen. Than again usually no one claims mafia -_- You might call claiming mafia a 'suboptimal' play
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United States5684 Posts
On May 09 2012 20:41 syllogism wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2012 20:38 Mattchew wrote:On May 09 2012 16:12 syllogism wrote: I don't personally think this setup is good for players who haven't played a single game before, maybe the disclaimer should suggest playing a more standard one first (SNMM). It's difficult for even experienced players to ignore DT checks and this one had a completely useless DT. While learning not to rely on roles is an important lesson, I don't think it is a recipe for a fun game that will keep completely new players interested in mafia. Dt could have checked anyone but 2 people and got a correct read back... The framer could not frame themselves so they still had a chance on n1 finding half the mafia kp... 1 mislynch from a scum check would also Prove there to be a framer... If anyone had pushed scum reads and town hadnt mass claimed then town woulda most likely won day 3 It's not a correct check because the target could still be a gf/framed. As soon as a framer flips or actually even earlier when town realizes that there is no roleblocker. Nothing wrong with the setup, I just think complete new player games shouldn't have to take such things into account. Towns in these games are always going to believe a green check and similarly a red check, no matter what, as long as the DT himself isn't suspicious. Towns in new player games already have a disadvantage due to good analysis being sparse, I don't think it's necessary to mislead them with roles too. I suppose having a few experienced players in these games could help. IMO in a 7/2 ratio game as soon as 1 mafia gets lynched, the town becomes instantly overpowering especially to a new nervous mafia player.
I also don't agree with the idea that newbie games should depend on blues over analysis (not that you are saying exactly this, but you do hint at something like this saying that analysis is sparse), it leads to bad results in future games. Also, 1 medic save would also lead to 2 confirmed townies due to lack of town KP and basically serve as a full proof DT check.
Basically what I am saying is that town had every opportunity to win this game (firm almost checked ange n2 but went with gummy instead )
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On May 09 2012 22:17 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2012 20:41 syllogism wrote:On May 09 2012 20:38 Mattchew wrote:On May 09 2012 16:12 syllogism wrote: I don't personally think this setup is good for players who haven't played a single game before, maybe the disclaimer should suggest playing a more standard one first (SNMM). It's difficult for even experienced players to ignore DT checks and this one had a completely useless DT. While learning not to rely on roles is an important lesson, I don't think it is a recipe for a fun game that will keep completely new players interested in mafia. Dt could have checked anyone but 2 people and got a correct read back... The framer could not frame themselves so they still had a chance on n1 finding half the mafia kp... 1 mislynch from a scum check would also Prove there to be a framer... If anyone had pushed scum reads and town hadnt mass claimed then town woulda most likely won day 3 It's not a correct check because the target could still be a gf/framed. As soon as a framer flips or actually even earlier when town realizes that there is no roleblocker. Nothing wrong with the setup, I just think complete new player games shouldn't have to take such things into account. Towns in these games are always going to believe a green check and similarly a red check, no matter what, as long as the DT himself isn't suspicious. Towns in new player games already have a disadvantage due to good analysis being sparse, I don't think it's necessary to mislead them with roles too. I suppose having a few experienced players in these games could help. IMO in a 7/2 ratio game as soon as 1 mafia gets lynched, the town becomes instantly overpowering especially to a new nervous mafia player. I also don't agree with the idea that newbie games should depend on blues over analysis (not that you are saying exactly this, but you do hint at something like this saying that analysis is sparse), it leads to bad results in future games. Also, 1 medic save would also lead to 2 confirmed townies due to lack of town KP and basically serve as a full proof DT check. Basically what I am saying is that town had every opportunity to win this game (firm almost checked ange n2 but went with gummy instead )
This^^.
However, in 7-2 I think I would rather see all only one power role to the town, either medic or vig, and a role blocker for mafia. Except vig would probably hurt town more than not in these newbie games.
EDIT* ^^This is not a balance complain.
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United Kingdom35817 Posts
I wonder if syllogism's idea of having 1 or 2 more experienced players could help these newbie games. Sometimes if town is wandering in the wrong direction, it only takes one person to take the game by the scruff of its neck and get it back on track.
I subbed into Newbie XI where town won largely with no thanks to me at all - they lynched mafia day 1, and I made a wrong read. What I did do was make the player I replaced from a reasonably high priority scumread into a town-read and town was discussing lynches instead of claims/craziness.
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United Kingdom35817 Posts
Mem: games like this show why 2 power roles for town are not imbalanced at all for newbie games.
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On May 09 2012 22:25 marvellosity wrote: I wonder if syllogism's idea of having 1 or 2 more experienced players could help these newbie games. Sometimes if town is wandering in the wrong direction, it only takes one person to take the game by the scruff of its neck and get it back on track.
I subbed into Newbie XI where town won largely with no thanks to me at all - they lynched mafia day 1, and I made a wrong read. What I did do was make the player I replaced from a reasonably high priority scumread into a town-read and town was discussing lynches instead of claims/craziness.
They would just get killed day 1, and if they ended up on the mafia team they would wreck most likely. Example, if you were a goon you probably wouldn't have got lynched. Also it takes away from newbies learning among newbies and then they can play with the big boys later in any games they want. It's worth taking into consideration though. Some newbie games/players are actually high level and some are very low level, the variability is unpredictable. I can't think of the reference but there was a couple really good newb games recently.
On May 09 2012 22:26 marvellosity wrote: Mem: games like this show why 2 power roles for town are not imbalanced at all for newbie games.
Yeah, I'm not saying its imbalanced. It was balanced from the start. But imo the newbie games should be thought of as a tutorial of how to play. How to establish your innocence, pressure, push reads, and provide discussion that promotes discussion. Making too many power roles just basically end up making the game if you use you power role well you win situation.
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Just an idea here but how about not having power roles? Or just a medic on town side and a rolecop for the mafia as fixed roles. So players would have to concentrate on finding scum instead of figuring out the mechanics of what power role might be in the game and how it will effect it.
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United States5684 Posts
On May 09 2012 22:24 Mementoss wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2012 22:17 Mattchew wrote:On May 09 2012 20:41 syllogism wrote:On May 09 2012 20:38 Mattchew wrote:On May 09 2012 16:12 syllogism wrote: I don't personally think this setup is good for players who haven't played a single game before, maybe the disclaimer should suggest playing a more standard one first (SNMM). It's difficult for even experienced players to ignore DT checks and this one had a completely useless DT. While learning not to rely on roles is an important lesson, I don't think it is a recipe for a fun game that will keep completely new players interested in mafia. Dt could have checked anyone but 2 people and got a correct read back... The framer could not frame themselves so they still had a chance on n1 finding half the mafia kp... 1 mislynch from a scum check would also Prove there to be a framer... If anyone had pushed scum reads and town hadnt mass claimed then town woulda most likely won day 3 It's not a correct check because the target could still be a gf/framed. As soon as a framer flips or actually even earlier when town realizes that there is no roleblocker. Nothing wrong with the setup, I just think complete new player games shouldn't have to take such things into account. Towns in these games are always going to believe a green check and similarly a red check, no matter what, as long as the DT himself isn't suspicious. Towns in new player games already have a disadvantage due to good analysis being sparse, I don't think it's necessary to mislead them with roles too. I suppose having a few experienced players in these games could help. IMO in a 7/2 ratio game as soon as 1 mafia gets lynched, the town becomes instantly overpowering especially to a new nervous mafia player. I also don't agree with the idea that newbie games should depend on blues over analysis (not that you are saying exactly this, but you do hint at something like this saying that analysis is sparse), it leads to bad results in future games. Also, 1 medic save would also lead to 2 confirmed townies due to lack of town KP and basically serve as a full proof DT check. Basically what I am saying is that town had every opportunity to win this game (firm almost checked ange n2 but went with gummy instead ) This^^. However, in 7-2 I think I would rather see all only one power role to the town, either medic or vig, and a role blocker for mafia. Except vig would probably hurt town more than not in these newbie games. 2roles for town vs 1.5roles for mafia seems pretty fair and balanced to me.
On May 09 2012 22:25 marvellosity wrote: I wonder if syllogism's idea of having 1 or 2 more experienced players could help these newbie games. Sometimes if town is wandering in the wrong direction, it only takes one person to take the game by the scruff of its neck and get it back on track.
I subbed into Newbie XI where town won largely with no thanks to me at all - they lynched mafia day 1, and I made a wrong read. What I did do was make the player I replaced from a reasonably high priority scumread into a town-read and town was discussing lynches instead of claims/craziness. Palmar subbed into a newbie game and nailed 3 for 3 day 1 and then got shot lol
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United States5684 Posts
On May 09 2012 22:38 paschl wrote: Just an idea here but how about not having power roles? Or just a medic on town side and a rolecop for the mafia as fixed roles. So players would have to concentrate on finding scum instead of figuring out the mechanics of what power role might be in the game and how it will effect it. This is something I am looking into and didn't want to do for my first game. I am debating on whether or not it would be fair because of the likelyhood of a scum fake-claim that cannot be actually counterclaimed
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United States5684 Posts
BTW if town could have discussed scum hunting and the game as much as we have discussed the setup in the postgame town woulda won EZPZ
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@Mattchew, im not saying it wasn't balanced. I just was saying it might make for better games/ learning environment possibly. And you are right, there is no reason with good discussion town couldn't have won. Both mafia were on my radar day 1.
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United Kingdom35817 Posts
The problem this game wasn't really the fact the power roles existed, but how all the claims and stuff happened on day 1
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United States5684 Posts
On May 09 2012 22:57 marvellosity wrote: The problem this game wasn't really the fact the power roles existed, but how all the claims and stuff happened on day 1 word
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United Kingdom10823 Posts
I really don't understand why everyone decided it was a good idea to mass claim D1...
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On May 09 2012 23:00 Hassybaby wrote: I really don't understand why everyone decided it was a good idea to mass claim D1... To give scum the only information in the game they don't start with. Duh.
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United Kingdom10823 Posts
On May 09 2012 23:01 Mementoss wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2012 23:00 Hassybaby wrote: I really don't understand why everyone decided it was a good idea to mass claim D1... To give scum the only information in the game they don't start with. Duh.
Yeeaaahh.......bout that......
:3
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jeeeeeeeesus christ gummy is the worst newbie i have ever fucking seen play this game
> claim green > ask for medic protection
really?
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i mean this is coming from someone who's day 1 strategy is almost always "dump fucktons of shit into the thread to see who attacks" and if i am calling you out for this strategy, that must say a lot dude
in a newbie game, attacking towns and throwing out game theory (false game theory might i add) up and down when i doubt any of them know what basic mafia strategy is.... come on maaaaaan
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On May 10 2012 13:07 annul wrote: jeeeeeeeesus christ gummy is the worst newbie i have ever fucking seen play this game
and for this i mean "play the game" as in actually attempt to play mafia; i do not consider the noobs who pump and dump 1 post per cycle to be "playing the game" -- they are objectively worse of course
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Gummy and Claw constantly picking at each other's necks really didn't help. It seemed rather inevitable that after one of them died, the other would too.
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