EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XX - Page 47
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
| ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 07:59 Evulrabbitz wrote: I will try to build a case against BassInSpace when I finished this episode of American Dad. Take said upcoming case as you will. I will try my hardest not to mislead in any way, but it is hard to account for all aspects so please do dissect it. Not that expect anything else, but still. Thank-you. That's all I wanted - I look forward to reading it! =) | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Because there is miller, it is now 50% true. If we can find scums better than 50% of the time, then we should ignore this. However, if our ability to find scum is significantly lower than 50%, the detective report should override our decisions on who we think are scum. Whether we can find scum more than 50% of the time could be up for an argument. The rest, really, is not. | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 08:02 Hapahauli wrote: We went over this before - in a strictly mathematical perspective, given our assumptions lynching Bass now vs. later makes no difference (75% chance given our set of assumptions). So why is it so clear to you to lynch Bass? It literally doesn't matter when we chose to lynch him, and there's no way in hell I'm going to lynch someone who's acted very pro-town so far. If it clearly doesn't matter to you, why does it matter if we lynch him today or on day 5? I explained my reasons why I wanted to lynch Bass now. Because if he survives until day 5, he may get out of it. The concern is that people will forget and let Bass live. Also, if we agree that Bass WILL be lynched on day 5, our actions are forced on day 5. I rather have the most important decision to be made on the last day, when we have the most information possible. Failing to find scum or miller by day 5 and then auto lynching Bass on day 5 is not appealing to me. You cited that not saving Bass lynch until the end will provide more discussion. And I thought this also. But actually, there will be same number of days and nights, and same number of players at each night. If anything, if we save Bass lynch until day 5, we will have no function discussion on day 5. On the other hand, even if decide to lynch Bass, we can continue discussing who is scummiest. | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Evul and zenman, please back me on this. Evul, I know that this will be your last day, but do read my previous posts. I feel they will make sense. Makin........ seriously. Post something. I can't really ask Bass to do anything else than vote against me, definitely not when he's miller. | ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 08:20 YourHarry wrote: Lazer and hapha. Why would I want to kill Bass now, if I am scum. I ask you this again. There is no reason. Scum would want to push a mislynch, especially of a player with a very pro-town history. Scum's best hope is to create an end-game scenario with a bunch of suspicious people. On July 12 2012 08:06 YourHarry wrote: In the absence of miller, detective's "guilty" report would be taken as fact. Because this is 100%. Regardless how townie this player may have acted. Because there is miller, it is now 50% true. If we can find scums better than 50% of the time, then we should ignore this. However, if our ability to find scum is significantly lower than 50%, the detective report should override our decisions on who we think are scum. Whether we can find scum more than 50% of the time could be up for an argument. The rest, really, is not. Again, "50%" is not the proper way to look at this. Based on Bass's play so far, I put the chance of him being mafia at far below 50%. If Evul checked Mackin or you and either of you turned up red, I'd put the probability of either of you being mafia at above 50% and push for your lynches. I'm curious - if Evul checked me last night and I turned up red, would you vote for me? Would you believe that I had a 50% chance of being mafia despite D1 lynch actions? | ||
|
Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
| ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
And it is true. The probability is not exactly 50%. The number should be adjusted based on our "reads" but again our reads should be able to change that number too much, unless there is like overwhelming evidence. | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
| ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 08:37 YourHarry wrote: If Evul checked you last night and you turned up red, then yes I would vote for you still. Even if I didn't think you were particularly scummy until that point, I will have to put my faith in the probability - because I don't trust my read as much as a fact telling me you are about 50% scum. And it is true. The probability is not exactly 50%. The number should be adjusted based on our "reads" but again our reads should be able to change that number too much, unless there is like overwhelming evidence. If reads can change the number, why don't we try to make that number a bit more accurate then? Why don't you dig through Bass's filter and see if we can make this a bit more accurate? This is the last I'll say on the subject of the whole 50% thing - you're putting blind faith in probability. This is a game of analysis, not coinflips. | ||
|
Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
His first post of substance is dedicated towards first counter-arguing some of Hapa's arguments against TMG but then backing up Hapa's case with a few of his own arguments. The next few posts are about a misunderstanding with Lazer. Now on to the interesting stuff. When the misunderstanding is cleared up BassInSpace opens his next post with agreeing with Hapa on the Hapa vs Hopeless discussion. By this time, Hopeless1der has already made an unforgivable mistake as scum. He has outright lied! This means that within three days, he will be dead. If Lazer was killed the first night, It would have been either Jingle or Hopeless up for the next lynch. If then Jingle was killed (or investigated) Hopeless would be next. Now, BassInSpace's only option is to jump on the case against Hopeless early so he can avoid later suspicion. This has worked with both Hapa and Lazer, as their key point in his townie play seems to be this incident. What this does with BassInSpace's credibility is obvious as we can see the result. He continues the very same post with making a case against Zen_Man. The credibility of this case is irrelevant. This is his back-up should someone other than Hopeless get lynched. He finishes his post saying that Hapa's point and Hapa's meta case (remember this) make his vote swing in the favor of Hopeless rather than TMG or Zen, the two he previously made cases against. The next 3 posts are just clarifications. So not important. The next post on line Is not really that suspicious other than he says he doesn't really like meta, yet his decision to vote for Hopeless was partially based on meta. The rest of this post can be seen as suspicious, but that will ultimately lead to too much WIFOM so I won't go there(E.g he encourages Jinglehell to make a good basis for defense to Hopeless which he then can support). The following post is quite strange. What I see as important to note here is that he says the lying is the thing that made him vote for, and now keep his vote on, Hopeless. He even says Hapa's other points aren't so strong. Earlier he said that Hapa's case (including meta analysis) made him vote for Hopeless. Somewhat strange, indeed. He then starts a little case against Mackin. I won't go into it much, other than it seems like BassInSpace really likes to keep as many balls juggling at the same time as possible. The reason for this is too much WIFOM, I won't go there. His next posts isn't that interesting. It's just throwing very, very, very mild suspicion on Lazer and YourHarry Link. He says something along the line of "Give us some credit, we can spot a bad case, No one has listened to Lazer and that he doesn't like YourHarry's play. This post is regarding my little "I am townie" trap which he kinda fell into. Now I said my vote was being deciding in a sense it was not for Lazer, which is to some degree true. The other who opposed this stance (can't remember who) did it because they didn't realize I could vote for Lazer and switch the vote. BassInSpace's mistake was one based on logical conclusion. He says that if Lazer had flipped green(had I chosen him), I would be very, very suspicious, even more so than the person who pushed the case. Now personally I believe that every vote is as important as the other, as in any other "election" (don't know if right word here, but still). It might just have been a late update (which is actually was ^^). If Lazer flipped green, my logical conclusion would be to target the person who lead the case against Lazer, not the one who happened to throw the last vote (which has just as much worth as the other). This is yet an attempt for him to keep as many balls juggling as possible. Now he hops onto the Release case for quite a few posts, not unexpected for scum. Neither is it unexpected for townie. He continues his posts with trying to clarify things. A little WIFOM about the probability of Hapa being Mafia. Updates his suspicion against Mackin and YourHarry, keeping the balls juggling (Again; The reason is not clear so can't say this makes him scum). This post is in response to Mackin who talks about BassInSpace's arguments against him (Mackin). BassInSpace has consistently been trying very hard to not make enemies. He has hold a case against Mackin almost the entire game and now he apologizes for pushing him. Dammit dude, show some decisiveness. You have been suspicious of him all game, yet you do not want to commit to a lynch on him. For that matter, you don't really want to lead a lynch on anyone even though you have so many suspicions. Now Bass votes for Zen_Man until he posts his defense. So we all kinda sit around waiting. This is how everyone acted so nothing suspicious. The rest is not showing anything suspicious (the whole of page 3 on his filter) apart from maybe this post. Now he conveniently brings up his backup case against Mackin, says he was never really pressured so he had to "poke" him. Now if you found him so suspicious why didn't you lead a case against him? Your answer is always "because other were more suspicious" and you point out quite a few times. Yet you have not actively tried to lynch the more suspicious person, you have more or less agreed with everyone else while keeping slight suspicions on other people. I feel like BassInSpace is kind of an "observer" in a sense he doesn't commit to a case. He simply backs up someones points and follows their lead while keeping some suspicions on other players which he can fall back later on. This also makes him come off as very indecisive. The fact that he first says that Hapa's arguments (including the meta analysis) made him vote for Hopeless, but then says that the sole reason he voted for Hopeless was the outright lie, is quite confusing. | ||
|
Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
| ||
|
Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
| ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Just a quick point before I start writing a formal reply: He finishes his post saying that Hapa's point and Hapa's meta case (remember this) make his vote swing in the favor of Hopeless rather than TMG or Zen, the two he previously made cases against. The exact quote from Bass's post is: "However, the points raised by hapahauli combined with the meta analysis of hopeless is going to mean that I put my vote on him for now, rather than zen man or TGM." You take him out of context here - he's pretty consistent with his view. [Quote]The next post on line Is not really that suspicious other than he says he doesn't really like meta, yet his decision to vote for Hopeless was partially based on meta. The rest of this post can be seen as suspicious, but that will ultimately lead to too much WIFOM so I won't go there(E.g he encourages Jinglehell to make a good basis for defense to Hopeless which he then can support).[/Quote] You take him out of context again. He's simply questioning Jingle's meta analysis of Hopeless, and is not commenting on my own. Overall, his view on my case on Hopeless is quite consistent - he's not too fond of meta analysis but feels that it adds to the case and his major suspicions (the 3 points he mentions). My first overall thoughts on your case is that you try to create a story to justify him being mafia rather than looking for actions that make him mafia - most of the actions you call suspicious can also be interpreted as very pro town. | ||
|
Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
For the second one. I said in the post that the only think suspicious is that he questions the use of meta. The other part I said was too much WIFOM to build a case on. I point out the fact he clearly says he dislikes the use of meta analysis. You seem to think that this was a comment only regarding Jingle's meta analysis. In that case I don't see how he can dislike Jingle's meta analysis but support yours. | ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 11:32 Evulrabbitz wrote: For the first "take him out of context" I don't actually see how I do that. In the direct quote he says that your arguments and the meta case (I mentioned your meta case, not just the meta case. However that doesn't make a difference) made his vote switch into favour of hopeless rather than TMG of Zen. That is exactly what I said. Please elaborate. "the points raised by hapahauli combined with the meta analysis of hopeless" I mean that this above statement is constitent with his viewpoints. His overall view is:he dosn't like meta analysis alone, and treats meta arguments it as something that strengthens the other poitns of my argument. The above quote fits with that viewpoint perfectly, as do all his other quotes. For the second one. I said in the post that the only think suspicious is that he questions the use of meta. The other part I said was too much WIFOM to build a case on. I point out the fact he clearly says he dislikes the use of meta analysis. You seem to think that this was a comment only regarding Jingle's meta analysis. In that case I don't see how he can dislike Jingle's meta analysis but support yours. Here's the full post (the post itself is addressed to JingleHell): "But as it stands now, it comes down to your meta analysis of hopeless vs his scummy posting in this actual thread. I value finding scummy posting as a scum hunting tool far more than I value meta. You don't think the points brought up by Hapahauli paint Hopeless in a bad light? And just as an aside, I'm not saying I think you're scum. I just want to understand why you think your meta analysis (which you admit yourself is an issue because he hasn't flipped in the other game) is more valuable than actual posts in this thread." In Jingle's post (which he replies to), Jingle mentions an unclear meta argument based on a game of Hopeless that hasn't finished yet. He's very clear about his intentions, "your meta analysis of hopeless vs his scummy posting[/b]" - he finds Jingle's unclear meta argument (based on a game that hasn't finished) as bad. Nowhere does it address my meta argument or talk about his views on meta arguments as a whole. As I continue to read through your arugment and Bass's filter, I think he's very consistent on his view on my case, and I haven't found anything to suggest otherwise. | ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
1) BassinSpace contradicts himself in agreeing with my case - I disagree and I think you take him out of context in your argument. He appears very consistent throughout, initially stating 3 points of my argument that he likes and saying he's not a huge fan of meta but accepts it as another component of my case to strengthen it. 2) BassinSpace "juggles" suspicion - I like this point a bit more, but I think its overblown. He's pretty consistent on the Hopeless lynch in the beginning as well as his suspicions on Mackin. He does have a habit of mentioning multiple people in a single post, but given that he lives in a different timezone than the other active posters, he has very few opportunities to talk with people directly and has to address all his questions/concerns in single posts. 3) BassinSpace is suspicious of Mackin, but still hasn't started a case against him - this is a valid point, and I think this justifies an explanation from Bass. This isn't necessarily a 100% scum read though, and he applies pressure on Mackin quite consistently. It doesn't seem very scummy to try and extract information out of a lurker/low-postcount player. Overall, I think this case brings up some slight suspicions, but that's about it. A lot of this can be interpreted as townie play, and he's far from the most suspicious person in the game right now. If it weren't for your red check, we probably wouldn't even be analyzing his case. Your main points against him are his lack of decisiveness against players and raising suspicions, however these issues Mackin's filter are far worse. Furthermore, he still has one very pro-town thing going from him: his D1 voting pattern, voting for Hopeless and pushing his case. | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 08:47 Hapahauli wrote: If reads can change the number, why don't we try to make that number a bit more accurate then? Why don't you dig through Bass's filter and see if we can make this a bit more accurate? This is the last I'll say on the subject of the whole 50% thing - you're putting blind faith in probability. This is a game of analysis, not coinflips. You continue to make a reference to "coinflips". Scumhunting and deciding who to lynch IS based on our perception of probability of each player being scum. But here is a difference. Scumhunting and your so called "game analysis" is not going to give you a coinflip. I wish it did though. And yes, as I have previously stated, analyzing players' post is an important tool and the only tool townies have. But when we start ignoring numbers that power roles give us, we are playing with a big handicap. And you keep bringing up that it doesn't matter if we lynch Bass today or on day 5. And while I'd much prefer Bass lynch today, the current discussion seems to think that Bass can be given an excuse to never be lynched. Otherwise, time would be better spent on talking about other players' scuminess. Bass "should" die anyway, right? This is frustrating and I do not understand why people cannot understand we need to lynch Bass. But I want to win. Keep arguing my point when it's obviously not going to be heard is not going to help my cause. I will force myself to come up with a case against Bass, and hopefully I can convince even myself that Bass is "definitely" scum. | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 08:27 Hapahauli wrote: Scum would want to push a mislynch, especially of a player with a very pro-town history. Scum's best hope is to create an end-game scenario with a bunch of suspicious people. Scum Harry would LOVE a mislynch, OF COURSE. But scum Harry would MUCH MUCH MORE PREFER A LYNCH of an UNCONFIRMED TOWNIE. WAY WAY MORE THAN LYNCH OF BASS, A POSSIBLE SCUM/MILLER. | ||
| ||
