|
Evul, JieXian is saying that the logical choice for you if you are scum and Lazer is town was to vote for Hopeless because if you hadn't and Lazer flipped green, you would have looked quite scummy, and not only would Hopeless have had a high chance of being lynched the next day anyway, you would also be compromised and under heavy scrutiny.
Here is you saying that the only logical choice for a scum would be to jump on the Hopeless buss.
I don't say this makes you scum; I am saying that you voting for Hopeless doesn't clear you, and I am saying it with your words.
|
If you are talking about my vote on Zen Man, I already said that his lack of any sort of defense (at the time) was scummier than anything Mackin was doing, hence why I voted for Zen Man instead of Mackin. I will always place my vote on the scummiest player.
That quote you have from me is also taken out of context. At the time, we were discussing your vote being the decider (ie late) and that is why you couldn't be cleared just for voting Hopeless. My vote was early. However, it's a moot point now: everyone who voted Lazer is either dead or confirmed town.
|
And I am off to bed now, I'll get back to any other questions tomorrow.
|
everyone who voted Lazer is either dead or confirmed town.
I actually didn't know that. Either way:
It is from perfect context. When we vote for who to lynch, every vote is deciding. It doesn't matter if it's the last or if it's the first, they both matter the same.
For the other reasons I mentioned which you discarded I will keep my vote on you.
|
So my contribution the last couple of days have been lacking but that is comming to an end now. First off, killing Bass purely based on the fact that he is Miller/scum is imo terribad. Saying that we have 50% percent chance of getting scum if we lynch him is simply not true. If we would have this information on the start of D1, then yes, he would have 50% chance of being scum. But this is not the start of D1. Let's consider a very hypothetical scenario:
We know one of player A and player B is town and the other one is scum. player A acts in a town way, and player B doesn't. A confirmed DT says that player A showed as scum in a setup where millers are possible. Would you just lynch player A because of this? No, you wouldn't.
To be completely honest, I haven't done any hardcore analysis of Bass filter. As a matter of fact, it almost seems like noone have done that. So what I ask you guys to do now is to take a VERY close look at his filter and decide what you think. As always, try to do this in an unbiased way.
What I don't want: People who simply puts their vote on Bass ''just because he has 50% chance if flipping scum''.
|
Bass filter summary
-Mostly ignoring the Jingle/Harry/Hope dabate.
-Is putting some soft suspicion on TMG
-With 18 hours untill lynch he is the third person to jump on the Hope-wagon. Some people had briefly mentioned this case against Hope but he is the third one to make any accusations against Hope and also the third one to put a vote on him.
-In the same post as he is voting Hope, he says he is also suspicious of TMG and Zen.
-After his vote against Hope and before the lynch he has a few short posts. In all of these posts he is pushing the lynch on Hope in one way or the other.
-During N1 he posts suspicion on both Mackin and Jingle.
-He obviously drops his suspicion on Jingle when Evul claims but his suspicion on Mackin stands.
-He posts some very light suspicion on Release.
-He posts some heavy accusations against Zen_Man and votes him. He is not online at the time of Zen_Man's claim and is unable to swap the vote(understandable if you live in Australia).
-During all this time he have been suspicious of Mackin.
-Posts defence against those who wants to lynch him because of Evuls check.
-His overall logic makes sense and isn't missleading people.
This seems very town to me. At the time of his vote against Hope, the lynch against him were not set in stone. He posted suspicion on several other players at this time but STILL he chose to vote Hope and even push the lynch against him. He is putting up alot of pressure against Mackin which I don't see any problems with as I don't like his play either. Evul said he was suspicious because he was pushing Mackin but always voted for someone else. First off, he was pushing both of the players he voted, just look at his filter. Second, There isn't really a point in voting someone if noone else is taking notice of the case. So, for those of you who voted Bass, I ask you to read his filter. If you don't think it looks very scummy then unvote him and look for other scummy persons.
|
On July 12 2012 00:16 Evulrabbitz wrote:
BassInSpace. As it is now I simply cannot trust anything you say or any case you make. It is too dangerous.
The fact that you even think your votes is of more value to the town than a confirmed townies view is ridiculous. The town has such and advantage the vote doesn't really matter; What matters now is confirming people's roles so their words gain credibility.
If you try to convince me to lynch someone other than you now (which is to some degree understandable) all I will see is potential misleading. If you make your cases against who you think is suspicious and, if lynched, flip green, they all know that the information you have provided is 100% town-aligned.
I don't choose who to investigate by chance. I chose you because all trough this game you have been trying to make a case against Mackin but when the voting is due you jump onto the most voted person (granted you did have to chose between Lazer and Hopeless, but the concept still stands). I found that somewhat scummy and decided to investigate.
Stop it. Just stop.
It will do you no harm to listen to his defense. In addition, he has a lot of pro-townie points from his actions on Day 1. He was the only other player in the game besides me to vote Hopeless1der, stick with his vote, and support his lynch. That's pretty pro-fucking-townie.
|
To add to the above, I'd lynch Mackin and YourHarry (for reasons previously stated) in a heartbeat before we lynch Bass.
|
On July 10 2012 13:04 Hapahauli wrote:LazerMonkey - Votes for JingleHell, posts lynch "wish-list" supspecting Jingle/JieXian/Hope/TMG, then changes vote to Hopeless when the vote total gets close at the end. Slightly suspicious, but his posting tone/analysis has been very pro townie so far, and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
BassinSpace - Voted for Hopeless early, pushed for his lynch, no vote changes. I don't see any problems with this really. I had posted suspicion and my reasons for these suspicion for all people on my wish list. The reason I did it in the first place was because I wasn't able to be very active during the lynch because I could only post from my phone every now and then. I didn't want any sort of ''OMFG LAZER IS SWITCHING VOTE WITH NO REASON'' when that clearly wasn't the case.
|
EBOWOP: failed that quote. Ignore the part about Bass.
|
On July 12 2012 04:11 Lazermonkey wrote:
So my contribution the last couple of days have been lacking but that is comming to an end now. First off, killing Bass purely based on the fact that he is Miller/scum is imo terribad. Saying that we have 50% percent chance of getting scum if we lynch him is simply not true. If we would have this information on the start of D1, then yes, he would have 50% chance of being scum. But this is not the start of D1. Let's consider a very hypothetical scenario:
We know one of player A and player B is town and the other one is scum. player A acts in a town way, and player B doesn't. A confirmed DT says that player A showed as scum in a setup where millers are possible. Would you just lynch player A because of this? No, you wouldn't.
To be completely honest, I haven't done any hardcore analysis of Bass filter. As a matter of fact, it almost seems like noone have done that. So what I ask you guys to do now is to take a VERY close look at his filter and decide what you think. As always, try to do this in an unbiased way.
What I don't want: People who simply puts their vote on Bass ''just because he has 50% chance if flipping scum''.
Come on. In your scenario, detective has no power because whoever he checked out, he would have received "guilty". Lynching either A or B would have equal probability of being scum, exactly 50%, regardless of detective's night report.
Funny thing about scum hunting is that a player who acts scummy are often town and vice versa. In average, we hope that identifying scummy motivations in players' posts would allow us to choose players who are more likely to be scums. But there is a limit. In all my experience of playing scum, so many times I have been wrong lynching a player who I thought was scummiest. I continue to try to improve my scum hunting skills, but I am not confident that I will be able to identify scum 50% of the times in our current scenario.
Regardless, as Hapha and I have previously discussed, it does not matter whether we lynch Bass now or later - as long as we lynch him today or on day 5. Posts like these, however, makes me get this over with and lynch Bass whether or not he is miller.
|
Late EBWOP about Bass filter: In fact he was the second one to put suspicion on Hope. Harry only voted him for no reason it seems. This shoudl make him look even better from a town point of view.
|
On July 12 2012 05:15 Hapahauli wrote:
To add to the above, I'd lynch Mackin and YourHarry (for reasons previously stated) in a heartbeat before we lynch Bass.
I tried to answer your questions. Let me know what questions were unanswered or not satisfied with.
I strongly recommend lynching Bass today. For reasons previously stated. I am willing to repeat these reasons and discuss them further upon requests.
|
On July 12 2012 05:28 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 04:11 Lazermonkey wrote:
So my contribution the last couple of days have been lacking but that is comming to an end now. First off, killing Bass purely based on the fact that he is Miller/scum is imo terribad. Saying that we have 50% percent chance of getting scum if we lynch him is simply not true. If we would have this information on the start of D1, then yes, he would have 50% chance of being scum. But this is not the start of D1. Let's consider a very hypothetical scenario:
We know one of player A and player B is town and the other one is scum. player A acts in a town way, and player B doesn't. A confirmed DT says that player A showed as scum in a setup where millers are possible. Would you just lynch player A because of this? No, you wouldn't.
To be completely honest, I haven't done any hardcore analysis of Bass filter. As a matter of fact, it almost seems like noone have done that. So what I ask you guys to do now is to take a VERY close look at his filter and decide what you think. As always, try to do this in an unbiased way.
What I don't want: People who simply puts their vote on Bass ''just because he has 50% chance if flipping scum''. Come on. In your scenario, detective has no power because whoever he checked out, he would have received "guilty". Lynching either A or B would have equal probability of being scum, exactly 50%, regardless of detective's night report. Funny thing about scum hunting is that a player who acts scummy are often town and vice versa. In average, we hope that identifying scummy motivations in players' posts would allow us to choose players who are more likely to be scums. But there is a limit. In all my experience of playing scum, so many times I have been wrong lynching a player who I thought was scummiest. I continue to try to improve my scum hunting skills, but I am not confident that I will be able to identify scum 50% of the times in our current scenario. Regardless, as Hapha and I have previously discussed, it does not matter whether we lynch Bass now or later - as long as we lynch him today or on day 5. Posts like these, however, makes me get this over with and lynch Bass whether or not he is miller. No, this is just plain false. We are playing mafia, not maths. Lynching B is better because he is most likely to be scum while A is most likely to be miller.
Whattiwhatti? So basically you are saying people who are playing in a townie way(like Bass for example...) should be lynched because that's how mafia play? This doesn't make any sense at all. Also you say your not confident in scum hunting. Why do you say this? You are voting Bass really fast but yet you say this. Are you afraid that we will be comming after you when Bass flips miller?
No, we don't want to lynch Bass at all. It's quite clear to me that he is miller. If you don't agree with this, feel free to point out the scummy things in his filter that I seem to have missed.
|
On July 12 2012 05:33 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 05:15 Hapahauli wrote:
To add to the above, I'd lynch Mackin and YourHarry (for reasons previously stated) in a heartbeat before we lynch Bass. I tried to answer your questions. Let me know what questions were unanswered or not satisfied with. I strongly recommend lynching Bass today. For reasons previously stated. I am willing to repeat these reasons and discuss them further upon requests. Yes, I request these reasons. And don't just say that he have 50% chance of flipping scum.
|
On July 12 2012 05:33 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 05:15 Hapahauli wrote:
To add to the above, I'd lynch Mackin and YourHarry (for reasons previously stated) in a heartbeat before we lynch Bass. I tried to answer your questions. Let me know what questions were unanswered or not satisfied with. I strongly recommend lynching Bass today. For reasons previously stated. I am willing to repeat these reasons and discuss them further upon requests.
I'll get to your defense later in more detail tonight - the N2 night actions have been a huge distraction from any productive analysis.
But the gist of it is:
- You don't really clear yourself on a lot of the more suspicious actions. You basically acknowledge that your D1 lynch voting is suspicious. In addition
- "Overall, Hapha, I think, for you to have a reasonable ground to accuse me" - direct quote.
- The reasons you listed for your townie behavior are pretty inconsequential. As brought up by me and Bass, talking about blue actions does not make you a pro townie. In addition, you still have not built a case on a player or provided any analysis on one.
|
I also need to repeat that we HAVE to lynch BASS. Either today or Day 5. If you disagree, please state your reasons.
There is literally 50% chance that Bass is scum. If there are outstanding evidence for Bass's townniess, let's even suppose that this chance can go down to 45%. But scum hunting is never this accurate. Not 45% if we have to choose one player out of four or five.
Many of your thought that Zenman was the scum. There was so much "evidence" toward it. You all voted him. Guess what, he's a medic.
Many of you thought that Release was the scum. Again, there was a LOT of "evidence" that he was scum. I voted him. Most of us did.
I still believe scum hunting is useful. It is the one of the means which townies try to achieve victory. While scum hunting is the most common strategy and the only ability available to vanilla towns, but there are other ways to find scum. Stronger. More reliable. One mean include detective's power to check out a player's alignment.
It turns out that his power has been sort of compromised because he unluckily chose either scum or miller. But even with this reduction in power, his power is still considerably stronger. His report, which will be his last, is too strong to go to a waste. We need to lynch Bass. Now or later.
I strongly prefer now, because I think this argument will be forgotten later in the day.
|
First of all, calling it a 50% chance to lynch Bass is inherently fallicious. There's either a 100% chance he's scum, or a 100% chance he's miller. Calling it 50% is a vast oversimplification of the situation.
Based on Bass's actions (especially the D1 lynch) and my own reads, I'd say Bass has well over a 50% chance of being the miller.
Do you really think there aren't more suspicious players than Bass? Who is your strongest scumread?
|
EBWOP: "First of all, calling it a 50% chance to lynch Bass is inherently fallicious"
should be
"First of all, calling it a 50% chance for Bass to be Mafia is inherently fallicious"
|
On July 12 2012 05:56 YourHarry wrote:
I also need to repeat that we HAVE to lynch BASS. Either today or Day 5. If you disagree, please state your reasons.
There is literally 50% chance that Bass is scum. If there are outstanding evidence for Bass's townniess, let's even suppose that this chance can go down to 45%. But scum hunting is never this accurate. Not 45% if we have to choose one player out of four or five. No, this is just wrong which I have already stated. But you don't seem to care. Bass can be either miller or scum. A scum would play scummy and miller plays townie. Bass have been playing townie. Bass is miller. This is simple logic.
On July 12 2012 05:56 YourHarry wrote:Many of your thought that Zenman was the scum. There was so much "evidence" toward it. You all voted him. Guess what, he's a medic.
Many of you thought that Release was the scum. Again, there was a LOT of "evidence" that he was scum. I voted him. Most of us did. This is very scummy. You are trying to downplay the fact that we have misslynched Release and was about to misslynch Zen_Man. Will this be your argument when Bass flips miller aswell?
On July 12 2012 05:56 YourHarry wrote:I still believe scum hunting is useful. It is the one of the means which townies try to achieve victory. While scum hunting is the most common strategy and the only ability available to vanilla towns, but there are other ways to find scum. Stronger. More reliable. One mean include detective's power to check out a player's alignment.
It turns out that his power has been sort of compromised because he unluckily chose either scum or miller. But even with this reduction in power, his power is still considerably stronger. His report, which will be his last, is too strong to go to a waste. We need to lynch Bass. Now or later.
I strongly prefer now, because I think this argument will be forgotten later in the day. This check was not useless. If someone would flip miller, we can just auto-lynch Bass. But that will not happend as Bass is miller.
It's funny, you are saying we shouldn't vote those being scummy because they are probebly town. Implying your own logic, we should never vote you because atm your appearing scummy as fuck. But since your logic sucks
##Vote YourHarry
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
