EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XX - Page 43
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On July 11 2012 10:37 YourHarry wrote: Marvellosity, mafia roleblocker can send in two night actions, correct? Roleblock AND NK? If so, he can target two different players, one for each action? correct | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
I mean. We must lynch Bass either this night or the next. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Second, if we let BassInSpace live, it would cause so much distraction later in the day. In fact, this would be exactly what the scum wants. Imagine scum and bassinspace to make it to LYLO! This is especially the case since medic and detective are completely useless now. We HAVE to stick with this report. If he's miller, then so be it. This does not mean we should stop discussing who is scummy. In fact, this game just got a lot more interesting but I want to fast forward time to lynch Bass to see what happens. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Though I still don't understand why the hell scum didn't roleblock you. I guess he took the "safe" way of roleblocking the medic and killing one of you. Scum is lucky if you happened to check out the miller. Anyone else, even a vanilla townie, would have given us the victory. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 11 2012 10:59 YourHarry wrote: First, I do not believe that no matter how much we tried, we would be able to find the scum 50% of the time. Second, if we let BassInSpace live, it would cause so much distraction later in the day. In fact, this would be exactly what the scum wants. Imagine scum and bassinspace to make it to LYLO! This is especially the case since medic and detective are completely useless now. We HAVE to stick with this report. If he's miller, then so be it. This does not mean we should stop discussing who is scummy. In fact, this game just got a lot more interesting but I want to fast forward time to lynch Bass to see what happens. Listen, I'm all far lynching BassInSpace if he's the scummiest read we have, but it's mind-numbingly stupid to lynch him on hope and prayer. This information just gives us another out when we lynch - we win the game if a guy flips Miller OR Mafia. Lynching someone on a 50% chance is terrible. If we lynch the miller tomorrow or in the subsequent days, we can lynch Bass at a 100% chance. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 11 2012 11:18 Hapahauli wrote: Listen, I'm all far lynching BassInSpace if he's the scummiest read we have, but it's mind-numbingly stupid to lynch him on hope and prayer. This information just gives us another out when we lynch - we win the game if a guy flips Miller OR Mafia. Lynching someone on a 50% chance is terrible. If we lynch the miller tomorrow or in the subsequent days, we can lynch Bass at a 100% chance. Even when you are scum hunting, you are doing some of that "hoping" and "praying" also. Analyzing cases, we gather evidence on why someone is more "likely" scum. And we lynch the player we think has the highest probability of being scum. We should do that, but not when the information is available to us that a will flip scum 50% of the time. Here and now, we must take that chance. It is our responsibility. I will start scum hunting more. I was guilty of not putting in the effort yesterday. But today, even if I decide that someone else was more scummy than Bass based on his previous actions, unless the evidence is overwhelmingly obvious (>50%), I will have to vote Bass. We can still scum-hunt. But please. We must lynch Bass because, if he is the miller, he will cause much distraction later in the game. He could try his best to defend himself, but it would be too late. He would be playing for the scum team. Tomorrow, we HAVE to rely on our scum hunting skills. We will all be alive tomorrow, except for Bass and Evul. If the game must continue, we will take what we are given - that we got unlucky in having to lynch the miller in Bass - and we will analyze the hell out of this game. We will read, re-read, and triple read. It will be fun. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
However. I will vote for Bass. 50% are great odds to be honest. Making a case for someone who acts scummy is not remotely as viable as those odds. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Let's assume we have three lynches remaining in total. Bass has a 50% of being mafia, and the 4 unconfirmed players have an equal chance of being mafia. Situation 1, we lynch Bass D3. 50% chance of Bass flipping Mafia (50% chance of victory) 50% chance of bass flipping miller
75% of victory total Situation 2, we lynch bass D5 after two days of lynching other scummy players: 2/5 chance of lynching miller or mafia D3 (40% chance of victory) 3/5 chance of lynching townie
85% chance of victory Now its entirely possible that I've fucked up the math somewhere (its been ages since I've taken a statistics/probability course), but the point I'm trying to make is that lynching on the "guilty" DT check now is not the most effective use of our information in a strictly mathematical viewpoint. Again, this is assuming that everyone has an equal chance of being scum and whatnot, but the point should be demonstrated. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Situation 2, we lynch bass D5 after two days of lynching other scummy players: 1/5 chance of lynching miller or mafia D3 (20% chance of victory) 4/5 chance of lynching townie 1/4 chance of lynching miller or mafia D4 (1/4 of 80% = 20%) Lynch Bass in LYLO for 50% chance of mafia flip (50% of 20% = 10%) 50% chance of victory | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Situation 2, we lynch bass D5 after two days of lynching other scummy players: 1/4 chance of lynching miller or mafia D3 (25% chance of victory) 3/4 chance of lynching townie 1/3 chance of lynching miller or mafia D4 (1/3 of 75% = 25%) Lynch Bass in LYLO for 50% chance of mafia flip (50% of 50% = 25%) 75% chance of victory Lol, so it makes no difference. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 11 2012 12:35 Hapahauli wrote: I'll double check my math, but there's no way it can be 50% for situation two, given that one of our main assumptions is that BassInSpace has a 50% chance of being mafia. That's a baseline of 50% no matter what day we lynch. In addition, we lynch other members increasing our chance over 50% Yep, that's exactly what I thought. But I fixed it. Since we are assuming we are not lynching Bass, we have 1/4 chance today to lynch miller or mafia rather than 1/5. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Though its worth saying that this 50% of mafia stuff is inherently fallacious | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
So they're the same. However, situation 2 will give us more information and generate more discussion (rather than simply lynching bass and being done with it). Therefore I vote situation 2 | ||
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