On July 11 2012 10:37 YourHarry wrote:
Marvellosity, mafia roleblocker can send in two night actions, correct? Roleblock AND NK? If so, he can target two different players, one for each action?

correct

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 11 2012 01:43 GMT

#843

Lynching Bass based on a DT read seems like a pretty terrible idea. I understand if were were down to a LYLO situation or something, but we we need to lynch the scummiest read we can find. This is just an excuse for us to be lazy, cross our fingers, and pray we're right. If we're wrong, we lose an entire day of discussion on a coinflip.

Evulrabbitz

Sweden134 Posts

July 11 2012 01:55 GMT

#844

Well then. Suppose BassInSpace is dead and he flips vanilla townie. Who is the scummiest?

I mean. We must lynch Bass either this night or the next.

YourHarry

United States1152 Posts

July 11 2012 01:59 GMT

#845

First, I do not believe that no matter how much we tried, we would be able to find the scum 50% of the time.

Second, if we let BassInSpace live, it would cause so much distraction later in the day. In fact, this would be exactly what the scum wants. Imagine scum and bassinspace to make it to LYLO! This is especially the case since medic and detective are completely useless now. We HAVE to stick with this report. If he's miller, then so be it.

This does not mean we should stop discussing who is scummy. In fact, this game just got a lot more interesting but I want to fast forward time to lynch Bass to see what happens.

YourHarry

United States1152 Posts

July 11 2012 02:01 GMT

#846

Hope Bass is Miller

Evulrabbitz

Sweden134 Posts

July 11 2012 02:09 GMT

#847

I will be dead next night =(

YourHarry

United States1152 Posts

July 11 2012 02:15 GMT

#848

If Bass is miller, you will die.

Though I still don't understand why the hell scum didn't roleblock you. I guess he took the "safe" way of roleblocking the medic and killing one of you. Scum is lucky if you happened to check out the miller. Anyone else, even a vanilla townie, would have given us the victory.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 11 2012 02:18 GMT

#849

On July 11 2012 10:59 YourHarry wrote:
First, I do not believe that no matter how much we tried, we would be able to find the scum 50% of the time.

Second, if we let BassInSpace live, it would cause so much distraction later in the day. In fact, this would be exactly what the scum wants. Imagine scum and bassinspace to make it to LYLO! This is especially the case since medic and detective are completely useless now. We HAVE to stick with this report. If he's miller, then so be it.

This does not mean we should stop discussing who is scummy. In fact, this game just got a lot more interesting but I want to fast forward time to lynch Bass to see what happens.

Listen, I'm all far lynching BassInSpace if he's the scummiest read we have, but it's mind-numbingly stupid to lynch him on hope and prayer.

This information just gives us another out when we lynch - we win the game if a guy flips Miller OR Mafia. Lynching someone on a 50% chance is terrible. If we lynch the miller tomorrow or in the subsequent days, we can lynch Bass at a 100% chance.

YourHarry

United States1152 Posts

July 11 2012 02:32 GMT

#850

On July 11 2012 11:18 Hapahauli wrote:

Show nested quote +

Even when you are scum hunting, you are doing some of that "hoping" and "praying" also. Analyzing cases, we gather evidence on why someone is more "likely" scum. And we lynch the player we think has the highest probability of being scum. We should do that, but not when the information is available to us that a will flip scum 50% of the time. Here and now, we must take that chance. It is our responsibility.

I will start scum hunting more. I was guilty of not putting in the effort yesterday. But today, even if I decide that someone else was more scummy than Bass based on his previous actions, unless the evidence is overwhelmingly obvious (>50%), I will have to vote Bass.

We can still scum-hunt. But please. We must lynch Bass because, if he is the miller, he will cause much distraction later in the game. He could try his best to defend himself, but it would be too late. He would be playing for the scum team.

Tomorrow, we HAVE to rely on our scum hunting skills. We will all be alive tomorrow, except for Bass and Evul. If the game must continue, we will take what we are given - that we got unlucky in having to lynch the miller in Bass - and we will analyze the hell out of this game. We will read, re-read, and triple read. It will be fun.

YourHarry

United States1152 Posts

July 11 2012 02:32 GMT

#851

EDBWOP: "but not when the information is available to us that a player will flip scum 50% of the time."

Evulrabbitz

Sweden134 Posts

July 11 2012 02:39 GMT

#852

I don't see how a miller would cause more distraction later on in the game, as only the detective and the tracker are distracted by the miller. One of those two is dead and the other (me) will be dead by dawn of the next day.

However. I will vote for Bass. 50% are great odds to be honest. Making a case for someone who acts scummy is not remotely as viable as those odds.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 11 2012 03:04 GMT

#853

While 50% is good odds, its not the most effective use of the information at hand.

Let's assume we have three lynches remaining in total. Bass has a 50% of being mafia, and the 4 unconfirmed players have an equal chance of being mafia.

Situation 1, we lynch Bass D3.
50% chance of Bass flipping Mafia (50% chance of victory)
50% chance of bass flipping miller

1/4 chance of lynching correct D4 (1/4 of 50% = 12.5%)
3/4 chance of mislynching D4 ---> 1/3 chance of lynching correct D5 (1/3 of 3/4 of 50% = 12.5%)

75% of victory total

Situation 2, we lynch bass D5 after two days of lynching other scummy players:
2/5 chance of lynching miller or mafia D3 (40% chance of victory)
3/5 chance of lynching townie

2/4 chance of lynching miller or mafia D4 (2/4 of 60% = 30%)
Lynch Bass in LYLO for 50% chance of mafia flip (50% of 30% = 15%)

85% chance of victory

Now its entirely possible that I've fucked up the math somewhere (its been ages since I've taken a statistics/probability course), but the point I'm trying to make is that lynching on the "guilty" DT check now is not the most effective use of our information in a strictly mathematical viewpoint.

Again, this is assuming that everyone has an equal chance of being scum and whatnot, but the point should be demonstrated.

YourHarry

United States1152 Posts

July 11 2012 03:25 GMT

#854

Good analysis. Did not think about it this way, but I think your math may not be correct in the second scenario. We are basically assuming we will not lynch Bass today. So there is only one player we can lynch that will give us instant win. I pasted your analysis and bolded the corrections:

Situation 2, we lynch bass D5 after two days of lynching other scummy players:
1/5 chance of lynching miller or mafia D3 (20% chance of victory)
4/5 chance of lynching townie
1/4 chance of lynching miller or mafia D4 (1/4 of 80% = 20%)
Lynch Bass in LYLO for 50% chance of mafia flip (50% of 20% = 10%)

50% chance of victory

YourHarry

United States1152 Posts

July 11 2012 03:30 GMT

#855

I think my math has to be wrong somewhere, because 50% is the bare minimum probability of victory if we lynch Bass at any time.

YourHarry

United States1152 Posts

July 11 2012 03:34 GMT

#856

Oh I realized my mistake. EBWOP:

Situation 2, we lynch bass D5 after two days of lynching other scummy players:
1/4 chance of lynching miller or mafia D3 (25% chance of victory)
3/4 chance of lynching townie
1/3 chance of lynching miller or mafia D4 (1/3 of 75% = 25%)
Lynch Bass in LYLO for 50% chance of mafia flip (50% of 50% = 25%)

75% chance of victory

Lol, so it makes no difference.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 11 2012 03:35 GMT

#857

I'll double check my math, but there's no way it can be 50% for situation two, given that one of our main assumptions is that BassInSpace has a 50% chance of being mafia. That's a baseline of 50% no matter what day we lynch. In addition, we lynch other members increasing our chance over 50%

YourHarry

United States1152 Posts

July 11 2012 03:36 GMT

#858

On July 11 2012 12:35 Hapahauli wrote:
I'll double check my math, but there's no way it can be 50% for situation two, given that one of our main assumptions is that BassInSpace has a 50% chance of being mafia. That's a baseline of 50% no matter what day we lynch. In addition, we lynch other members increasing our chance over 50%

Yep, that's exactly what I thought. But I fixed it. Since we are assuming we are not lynching Bass, we have 1/4 chance today to lynch miller or mafia rather than 1/5.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 11 2012 03:37 GMT

#859

Damnit you sniped me again - I'll doublecheck

Though its worth saying that this 50% of mafia stuff is inherently fallacious

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 11 2012 03:40 GMT

#860

Oh yeah I made a mistake - didn't account for Bass taking one of the miller/mafia slots and put 2/5 instead of 1/4 for the first part of situation 2.

So they're the same. However, situation 2 will give us more information and generate more discussion (rather than simply lynching bass and being done with it). Therefore I vote situation 2