EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XX - Page 58
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
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BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
I made two stupid mistakes this game that went unnoticed most of the time: 1. Thinking that town check = instant win 2. Thinking that RBing DT and NKing the Tracker (or vice versa) is better strategy. Actually #2 depended on #1... | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 23:08 Evulrabbitz wrote: People have repeatedly been saying that my read on you was stupid and I should have gone for townie reads. I don't see why. JieXian said it was stupid, for a different reason I think. I was wondering if you thought Bass was town. I never called it stupid  But I was wrong anyway.If you ended up investigating a townie, instead of a scum, then our probability of winning would have been: 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2) = 75% Of course, investigating the scum (and assuming that everyone is reasonable enough to lynch whoever is reported to be "red), means that we would win 100% of the time. Although we almost didn't lynch your target  So perfect job on the investigation. It guaranteed us the victory. At least, should have, in every situation. | ||
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
Really well played Bass. | ||
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
Great clutch read too evul I'm the only one who said that you sucked | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 13 2012 10:32 marvellosity wrote: Sooo, will there be an analysis?Coaches/Radfield probably will... I have too much mafia shizzle on my plate at the moment. I'll try find out | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
Will there be an game analysis or are we waiting in vain? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
This game was actually pretty simple. Hapahauli made an excellent day 1 case on Hopeless (one of the better day 1 cases on TL Mafia I've seen). For some reason JingleHell decided to nitpick on semantics and the like, this was not good play. Arguing for the sake of arguing. Anyway Hapa did very well to push through the lynch despite some town resistance. Obviously the modkill of Khorrus spoiled the game quite a bit (even more so that DT checks become more reliable as he was godfather). Hapahauli let feelings of OMGUS get to him a little with his case on Jingle I think, stemming from his annoyance that Jingle had been difficult. There was a pretty strange sentiment running through the thread that Hapahauli might be scum bussing day 1. While always *possible*, it was pretty damn out there in this instance. Firstly, in a 3-scum scenario, bussing like that is EXTREMELY risky as that's 1/3 of your team gone. Also Khorrus' absence was telegraphed quite early on, making the bus even riskier. Release was especially convinced of the idea, which was just madness. Honestly Release played most of the game as if he was on hard hallucinogens. Conspiracy theories, bad ideas, and a total failure to listen to his fellow townies a lot of the time. Hapahauli bussing like that should be something to be considered as a possibility, but generally as a last resort, when other avenues are exhausted. Due to the nature of the open setup and the strong position of town, everyone claiming seemed like a decent proposal as it would help confirm townies as scum can't play for any kind of 1-1 swap. This saved Zen_Man (good) and I don't really blame town so much for lynching Release. EvulRabbitz' DT check on BassinSpace was a good one. He had correctly identified that Bass was superficially playing a town game but was actually going more with the flow of the thread than pushing his own lynches. Rabbitz also made a case to back it up, but was ignored by the pro-BassinSpace camp. I'm not sure that people stopped to consider enough why confirmed town-DT EvulRabbitz checked BassinSpace in the first place. Found him scummy -> checked him -> red. Thus while 1/2 odds IS good over 1/8 (despite what town said), it was backed up heavily by the suspicions and case of Rabbitz himself. People seemed to forget while making the numbers argument about why Evul checked him in the first place. "it's not 50/50, he seems pro-town, so it's not 50/50." Well that works the other way round too. Some townies got lazy (YourHarry, others) day 3, which is bad but understandable. It's remarkably easy to let a good position slip away by laziness. In LIV 3 of the 5 scumteam members were modkilled in the first two cycles, putting town in an immensely strong position, yet scum won in the end due to 6 consecutive townie mislynches. It's never over until it's over. I also feel players argued unnecessarily much at times. I touched on this with JingleHell/Hapa day 1 but it happened with various other townies at several points too. If you're town, running a continuing grudge/argument simply is not going to help, it provides an atmosphere of distrust and if not for the DT check town could still have torn itself apart because of it. Edit: one last thing - BassinSpace did well to early bus Hopeless on Day 1. While ultimately futile it's strong and quick action like that that makes it hard to pin down a scum later. Edit edit: also, activity was generally good. This thread has well in excess of 1000 replies which is high activity for a newbie town. | ||
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BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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