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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 14:29 YourHarry wrote: --SNIP-- I will force myself to come up with a case against Bass, and hopefully I can convince even myself that Bass is "definitely" scum. I hope this is sarcastic. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 14:32 YourHarry wrote: Scum Harry would LOVE a mislynch, OF COURSE. But scum Harry would MUCH MUCH MORE PREFER A LYNCH of an UNCONFIRMED TOWNIE. WAY WAY MORE THAN LYNCH OF BASS, A POSSIBLE SCUM/MILLER. Harry. There's one scum left. If you are scum, you know he's innocent, therefore you push for a mislynch. Its pretty basic. I really can't follow you here... | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Nope. Wasn't. I was just ISOing him. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 14:36 Hapahauli wrote: Harry. There's one scum left. If you are scum, you know he's innocent, therefore you push for a mislynch. Its pretty basic. I really can't follow you here... Yes, say I am scum. I know he is innocent. But it's much better to have a guy who is "known" to run red later in the day rather than having him get mislynched an flip town. Do you think scum Harry would want Bass on Day 5 with me or not? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
I would push for Mackin's lynch. He hasn't posted much and seems hiding of late. I previously posted a weak case against him, but if he's alive LYLO, it would not be good news as he's inactivity may get him modkilled, which may equal instant loss, and he hasn't have many posts for others to analyze on (though BASS should die). Also I don't feel like he's keeping up with the game. ##VOTE Mackin | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 14:43 YourHarry wrote: Yes, say I am scum. I know he is innocent. But it's much better to have a guy who is "known" to run red later in the day rather than having him get mislynched an flip town. Do you think scum Harry would want Bass on Day 5 with me or not? I still don't get it. Scum want non-scum dead. Bass is an easy bandwagon target for scum, since it allows them an opportunity to lynch someone who's acted pro town with little or no analysis. The sooner they get rid of him the better. I will agree with your vote on Mackin though. He hasn't been speaking at all (lurking), he really only posts when he's called out/asked to (keeping the town on a need-to-know basis), and his posts have been all summary/finger-points. ##Unvote YourHarry ##Vote Mackin | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 15:00 Hapahauli wrote: I still don't get it. Scum want non-scum dead. Bass is an easy bandwagon target for scum, since it allows them an opportunity to lynch someone who's acted pro town with little or no analysis. The sooner they get rid of him the better. I will agree with your vote on Mackin though. He hasn't been speaking at all (lurking), he really only posts when he's called out/asked to (keeping the town on a need-to-know basis), and his posts have been all summary/finger-points. ##Unvote YourHarry ##Vote Mackin That is my point. Bass should be an easy bandwagon on Day 5. That is why scum Harry or any scum would want Bass alive, if possible, until Day5. Scum makes it into day 5 with Bass, there is such a high chance for Bass the miller to be mislynched. But in the end, we showed that mathematically it doesn't matter for town whether we kill Bass first or last. It also shouldn't matter to scum. But if scum was faced with strong opposition against Bass lynch, he would have backed off easily to find another mislynch. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 15:00 Hapahauli wrote: I still don't get it. Scum want non-scum dead. Bass is an easy bandwagon target for scum, since it allows them an opportunity to lynch someone who's acted pro town with little or no analysis. The sooner they get rid of him the better. I will agree with your vote on Mackin though. He hasn't been speaking at all (lurking), he really only posts when he's called out/asked to (keeping the town on a need-to-know basis), and his posts have been all summary/finger-points. ##Unvote YourHarry ##Vote Mackin Sick feeling. Sum Haph would want me, Bass, and Haph in LYLO. | ||
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BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
I said in this post: On July 07 2012 00:43 BassInSpace wrote: But as it stands now, it comes down to your meta analysis of hopeless vs his scummy posting in this actual thread. I value finding scummy posting as a scum hunting tool far more than I value meta. You don't think the points brought up by Hapahauli paint Hopeless in a bad light? And just as an aside, I'm not saying I think you're scum. I just want to understand why you think your meta analysis (which you admit yourself is an issue because he hasn't flipped in the other game) is more valuable than actual posts in this thread. The fact that he first says that Hapa's arguments (including the meta analysis) made him vote for Hopeless, but then says that the sole reason he voted for Hopeless was the outright lie, is quite confusing. That I value scummy posting more than I value meta. Does that mean I think meta is completely useless? No, I never said that. I made that point because Jingle was relying only on meta in his defense of Hopeless. This was a case of scummy posting vs meta. When I agreed with Hapa's case, it was because Hopeless was lying and dodging. The meta that Hapa used was in conjunction with the scummy posting. So again I state; I voted for Hopeless because of the lying and dodging, but the meta case against him helped a little as well. I was perfectly willing to vote him even without the meta case. This post is in response to Mackin who talks about BassInSpace's arguments against him (Mackin). BassInSpace has consistently been trying very hard to not make enemies. He has hold a case against Mackin almost the entire game and now he apologizes for pushing him. Dammit dude, show some decisiveness. You have been suspicious of him all game, yet you do not want to commit to a lynch on him. For that matter, you don't really want to lead a lynch on anyone even though you have so many suspicions. I did not apologise for pushing him. I apologised if he felt that I was being unfair/overly aggressive in my push. As for my pressuring him and then letting it go, you'll see that my main point against him was his being indecisive. When he actually had a stance on players, I eased off of him, but pretty much everyone here can see he hasn't been around lately, which is why I started posting about him again. This isn't indecision, this is updating my reads based on his behaviour. I criticised hi reads for being indecisive because they were full of "well he could be scum because of A but he might be town because of B ". This post is regarding my little "I am townie" trap which he kinda fell into. Now I said my vote was being deciding in a sense it was not for Lazer, which is to some degree true. The other who opposed this stance (can't remember who) did it because they didn't realize I could vote for Lazer and switch the vote. BassInSpace's mistake was one based on logical conclusion. He says that if Lazer had flipped green(had I chosen him), I would be very, very suspicious, even more so than the person who pushed the case. Now personally I believe that every vote is as important as the other, as in any other "election" (don't know if right word here, but still). It might just have been a late update (which is actually was ^^). If Lazer flipped green, my logical conclusion would be to target the person who lead the case against Lazer, not the one who happened to throw the last vote (which has just as much worth as the other). This is yet an attempt for him to keep as many balls juggling as possible. I'm not the only one around here who thinks that very late vote switches like that can be suspicious. Just look at the opinions of others in this game and the whole TL mafia forum. We'll just have to disagree about this point. Now Bass votes for Zen_Man until he posts his defense. So we all kinda sit around waiting. This is how everyone acted so nothing suspicious. The rest is not showing anything suspicious (the whole of page 3 on his filter) apart from maybe this post. Now he conveniently brings up his backup case against Mackin, says he was never really pressured so he had to "poke" him. Now if you found him so suspicious why didn't you lead a case against him? Your answer is always "because other were more suspicious" and you point out quite a few times. Yet you have not actively tried to lynch the more suspicious person, you have more or less agreed with everyone else while keeping slight suspicions on other people. As for Mackin, again, read what I posted earlier in this reply. I pushed him because he was being very indecisive, then he actually posted his stance, so I backed off of him. If I had continued hounding him on my original points after that point in time, I would have been guilty of tunneling him. Also, I have been lynching the more suspicious person, (started on TMG, switched to Hopeless after all the evidence against him, started on Mackin and switched to Zen Man because he seemed to refuse to defend himself properly) I can't help it if I'm active when most others are not. By the time I can come on to check the thread, a lot of my suspicions have already been posted. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 15:18 YourHarry wrote: Sick feeling. Sum Haph would want me, Bass, and Haph in LYLO. I assume you meant scum Hapa? Well scum hapa wouldn't have crucified hopeless D1 =P | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Mackin's D1 Voting Pattern/Defense of Hopeless1der: Mackin immediately comes to the aid of Hopeless when he starts coming under fire. His first substantial post is right after Hopeless addresses my FOS. On July 06 2012 06:06 Mackin wrote: That makes alot of sense to me Hopeless and I totally agree. Bandwagoning is giving no real thought to the situation whereas when there is a clear reason for siding with someone such as terrible posts, I'm all for agreeing with them and I don't see it as "Bandwagoning" Hapa what you said makes no sense to me. If I have made crappy posts, why wouldn't you side with Hopeless? It's hardly bandwagoning if you think you have anything to question me on. I have no inhibition to post and anyone who does have inhibition when people are stacking against them clearly has something to hide. Mackin defends Hopeless very passively when I first ask him for thoughts on his case. He tries to justify his actions in an unsure/unconfident tone rather than taking a strong opinion either way. @Hapa: Your case on Hopeless1der: I don't know what to think here. It's like Hopeless is really trying to build a case against you, he builds up quite alot in the first post and when you make your stance clear in your response, his response is to back down immediately. Maybe he just wanted to question you and test the water a bit? I don't think he's trying to genuinely full on attack and point the FoS here. I don't know why he starts going on about Release, if I was thinking more suspiciously of him, he maybe just wanted the conversation to change quickly and forget about building a case on you. Mackin then casts a vote for YourHarry and is done with D1. Mackin's Fingerpointing/Spreading Suspicion Mackin is fond of making lists of all the players and giving his thoughts of all of them. In all of these lists, he always casts slight suspicion on every single player, and will never outright declare someone extremely suspicious. The two posts linked below make him look very bad - he tries to be non-confrontational while casting suspicion on every single player. The only time he'll ever declare someone pro-town is if they're confirmed (as a result of the Blue roleclaims). http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=25#496 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=32#622 Furthermore, he misrepresents his posting. The above lists are not forceful or decisive, yet he says this earlier in the game: On July 06 2012 06:06 Mackin wrote: Hapa what you said makes no sense to me. If I have made crappy posts, why wouldn't you side with Hopeless? It's hardly bandwagoning if you think you have anything to question me on. I have no inhibition to post and anyone who does have inhibition when people are stacking against them clearly has something to hide. Mackin is anything but uninhibited when he posts. He's incredibly non-confrontational and tries to point suspicion at many players with his "lists." Mackin's "Lurkiness" Mackin doesn't post often - he didn't post the entire N1 cycle! Furthermore, Mackin will rarely post unless directly addressed/prompted to. This is consistent with Mafia keeping the town on a need-to-know basis. I found the timing of this next post funny: On July 08 2012 07:23 Mackin wrote: Sorry I haven't posted I have had an unbelievable 24 hours IRL. Not getting into it but basically sorry I missed critical point of D1. I'm just reading through now and thoughts will be posted very soon! While I don't mean to belittle his IRL issues, he posted this 4 minutes after I called him out for not posting. At the time of this post, he's posted once in D3, excusing himself for not posting in N2. Based on his interactions with Hopeless, his fingerpointing/indecisive posting, and his unwillingness to post, Mackin is my top Mafia suspect. ##Vote Mackin | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
I'm not the only one around here who thinks that very late vote switches like that can be suspicious. Just look at the opinions of others in this game and the whole TL mafia forum. We'll just have to disagree about this point. If you think the same about votes, I can agree here. However this was not a voteswitch. I just did a late update. The Jingle and YourHarry discussion (in which I laid my vote) was already over a long time ago. That I value scummy posting more than I value meta. Does that mean I think meta is completely useless? No, I never said that. I made that point because Jingle was relying only on meta in his defense of Hopeless. This was a case of scummy posting vs meta. When I agreed with Hapa's case, it was because Hopeless was lying and dodging. The meta that Hapa used was in conjunction with the scummy posting. So again I state; I voted for Hopeless because of the lying and dodging, but the meta case against him helped a little as well. I was perfectly willing to vote him even without the meta case. I never said you think it is completely useless. Just you putting words in my mouth to make your defense sound better makes we want to lynch you. I did not apologise for pushing him. I apologised if he felt that I was being unfair/overly aggressive in my push. As for my pressuring him and then letting it go, you'll see that my main point against him was his being indecisive. When he actually had a stance on players, I eased off of him, but pretty much everyone here can see he hasn't been around lately, which is why I started posting about him again. This isn't indecision, this is updating my reads based on his behaviour. I criticised hi reads for being indecisive because they were full of "well he could be scum because of A but he might be town because of B ". So this attitude is basically "I have some things that point him to scum and some to town, but I won't pressure him because if I do he might slip scum". How else can someone be overly aggresive in a push? Isn't it a good think to make see how people react to pressure? As for Mackin, again, read what I posted earlier in this reply. I pushed him because he was being very indecisive, then he actually posted his stance, so I backed off of him. If I had continued hounding him on my original points after that point in time, I would have been guilty of tunneling him. Also, I have been lynching the more suspicious person, (started on TMG, switched to Hopeless after all the evidence against him, started on Mackin and switched to Zen Man because he seemed to refuse to defend himself properly) I can't help it if I'm active when most others are not. By the time I can come on to check the thread, a lot of my suspicions have already been posted. Explain to me how that would've been tunneling. You have never just had one person suspicious, in fact you have almost always had 3 (First TMG, Hopeless & Zen. Then TMG, Mackin, me and Zen. Then Zen, mackin and Release. Now YourHarry&Mackin) people being suspicious to you. I don't see how pushing your long-lived case would've been tunneling. His contradiction in the Hopeless case was that he votes on Hopeless based on Hapa's arguments and partially the meta analysis. Then he says the only thing of value is that Hopeless outright lied. Regardless, what I am trying to emphasis is that BassInSpace voting for Hopeless does not make him townie in any sense. When BassInSpace started posting against him, Hopeless had already lied, and as I mentioned, would most likely die within 3 days tops. He saw this mistake and actively started gaining townie points, which is actually something BassInSpace has done consistently. He has more actively tried to gain townie points than lynch who he thinks is suspicious. And when I talk about actively lynching, I am talking about pushing a case and adding to it. BassInSpace hasn't really done that. At all. Rather he has been trying to get on everyone's good side. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 12 2012 06:26 Evulrabbitz wrote: No, he is implying that since we were both wrong about Zen and Release, regular scum hunting is bad. Note also that he did in fact IGNORE that we managed to lynch Hope based on regular scum hunting. So basically we have had 50% success with regular scum hunting. 50% chance of success, where have I heard that before...hmmm?He clearly states what happened, how can that be downplaying it? What if the miller flips too late? Keep in mind Jingle said the same about Hopeless. Hapa was very convinced Jingle was Mafia. We all said the same about Release (As YourHarry pointed out). He never said it was useless, he said that because there is a miller the validity of investigation has been compromised; As in it might not be entirely true. All you said in that post was plain bullshit. Anyway. I don't side with Harry, nor do I side with Bass. I believe that keeping BassInSpace alive is not crucial for town victory. What you do need is town-aligned information and viewpoints. Now, if BassInSpace makes his cases; "Who would he lynch first? Next? etc", you still have his viewpoints. If we then lynch him we either get a Mafia and win the game or get a valid source of information there is no need to distrust. He said in his post that if we don't lynch into Bass at all, we have wasted one check which is false. Yes, if we don't get the miller, this check will be useless(assuming we don't lynch bass and he flips scum...). Untill then, the check is not useless. He did in fact even say this: His report, which will be his last, is too strong to go to a waste. We need to lynch Bass. Now or later. it's quite clear what he is implying. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 12 2012 06:33 Evulrabbitz wrote: This was not only a response to you, but rather everyone who just dropped in, put a vote on Bass, and then continued to lurk. Why would I say people if it was only directed to you?I already did. Have you stopped reading? I clearly stated it. What I also clearly stated was why I think your post targeting YourHarry was bullshit, which you seem to have completely ignored. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 12 2012 07:20 YourHarry wrote: Like I said. Saying that Bass have 50% chance of flipping scum is retarded in so many ways. Math is good but what you are doing here is not maths. And you even came to the conclusion(with maths)that we can lynch him later if we want to. Why are you pushing him today? What exactly is false about it? We are playing mafia, you are correct. Math can apply to everywhere. Including mafia. We don't HAVE to use what we know about math, but if applying what we know about math can help us win, then we should. I am not saying that people who act townie should be lynched. I said there is a limit to how much scum hunting can help us. Yes, I voted Bass because he was checked out "red". I was not voting Bass because my scum hunting told me that I think Bass is mafia. If I was afraid that you guys will come after me when Bass flips miller, then I would have voiced my opinion that we should ignore what the detective has told us and continue scum hunting as if we didn't know that information. How is it quite clear that he is a miller. Was it clear to you that ZenMan was a scum until he confessed medic? Was it clear to you that Release was scum? The second paragraph is just... -.- No it doesn't work like that. Once again your downplaying the fact that we misslynched. Zen_Man even confessed that he have been playing lazy becuase he thought the game would be over no matter what. Also you are ignoring that we got Hope on D1 by scum hunting. | ||
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
No, he is implying that since we were both wrong about Zen and Release, regular scum hunting is bad. Note also that he did in fact IGNORE that we managed to lynch Hope based on regular scum hunting. So basically we have had 50% success with regular scum hunting. 50% chance of success, where have I heard that before...hmmm? So you are saying he downplayed that the lynch on Hopeless was successful. Really, I think your post was just a huge misunderstanding on the word "downplay". He said in his post that if we don't lynch into Bass at all, we have wasted one check which is false. Yes, if we don't get the miller, this check will be useless(assuming we don't lynch bass and he flips scum...). Untill then, the check is not useless. He did in fact even say this: No, he says that since BassInSpace has turned guilty we will need to be lynched sooner or later. He never said if we don't lynch him it will be useless. He says that because he turned out guilty BassInSpace should sooner or later be lynched. So basically we have had 50% success with regular scum hunting. If this is implying that so far we've had at 50% success with regular scum hunting, you are mistaken. If it does not; Please clarify. We have used regular scum hunting to declare Hopeless, Zen_Man and Release scum. Now Zen_man claimed medic. If he didn't have a blue role he would be dead now, we all know that. so 1/3 have been mafia. that is ~33% success rate. You could even argue that Jingle would be dead or still pressured had I not investigated him (this is however nothing substantial and I won't use it against anyone). Your last posts has made no sense to me at all. If you are basing your suspicion on other's arguments against YourHarry, so be it, but right now you aren't making any sense. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 12 2012 20:18 Evulrabbitz wrote: He is saying that we should rely on a 50% chance (which isn't even correct, but let's ignore that for now)rather then regular scum hunting becuase we have been wrong about Release and Zen. This is while we have actually had 50% correct lynches based on regular scum hunting.So you are saying he downplayed that the lynch on Hopeless was successful. Really, I think your post was just a huge misunderstanding on the word "downplay". On July 12 2012 20:18 Evulrabbitz wrote: Yes he did...No, he says that since BassInSpace has turned guilty we will need to be lynched sooner or later. He never said if we don't lynch him it will be useless. He says that because he turned out guilty BassInSpace should sooner or later be lynched His report, which will be his last, is too strong to go to a waste. We need to lynch Bass. Now or later. On July 12 2012 20:18 Evulrabbitz wrote: Zen wasn't lynched. It's stupid to say that Release would've been dead if Zen would have flipped green. Becuase this isn't true.If this is implying that so far we've had at 50% success with regular scum hunting, you are mistaken. If it does not; Please clarify. We have used regular scum hunting to declare Hopeless, Zen_Man and Release scum. Now Zen_man claimed medic. If he didn't have a blue role he would be dead now, we all know that. so 1/3 have been mafia. that is ~33% success rate. You could even argue that Jingle would be dead or still pressured had I not investigated him (this is however nothing substantial and I won't use it against anyone). Your last posts has made no sense to me at all. If you are basing your suspicion on other's arguments against YourHarry, so be it, but right now you aren't making any sense. | ||
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
His report, which will be his last, is too strong to go to a waste. We need to lynch Bass. Now or later. As I understand it, he feels it will go to a waste since you and Hapa does not recognize it. You are both saying it more or less doesn't matter. Zen wasn't lynched. It's stupid to say that Release would've been dead if Zen would have flipped green. Becuase this isn't true. Why is that stupid? There was two major cases, one against Release and one again Zen_Man. Zen_Man was cleared because he claimed blue. The case against Release wouldn't have dropped if Zen was killed and flipped townie. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 12 2012 21:06 Evulrabbitz wrote: No we didn't. We do recognize it and draws the conclusion that Bass is probebly miller. It does matter as if someone would flip miller at this point, Bass must be scum.As I understand it, he feels it will go to a waste since you and Hapa does not recognize it. You are both saying it more or less doesn't matter. On July 12 2012 21:06 Evulrabbitz wrote: Yes, but you are assuming that Release would've been auto-lynched in case if Zen_Man would've flipped green. Why is that stupid? There was two major cases, one against Release and one again Zen_Man. Zen_Man was cleared because he claimed blue. The case against Release wouldn't have dropped if Zen was killed and flipped townie. | ||
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