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+ Show Spoiler +On July 12 2012 18:50 Evulrabbitz wrote:Show nested quote +I'm not the only one around here who thinks that very late vote switches like that can be suspicious. Just look at the opinions of others in this game and the whole TL mafia forum. We'll just have to disagree about this point.
If you think the same about votes, I can agree here. However this was not a voteswitch. I just did a late update. The Jingle and YourHarry discussion (in which I laid my vote) was already over a long time ago. Show nested quote +That I value scummy posting more than I value meta. Does that mean I think meta is completely useless? No, I never said that. I made that point because Jingle was relying only on meta in his defense of Hopeless. This was a case of scummy posting vs meta. When I agreed with Hapa's case, it was because Hopeless was lying and dodging. The meta that Hapa used was in conjunction with the scummy posting. So again I state; I voted for Hopeless because of the lying and dodging, but the meta case against him helped a little as well. I was perfectly willing to vote him even without the meta case.
I never said you think it is completely useless. Just you putting words in my mouth to make your defense sound better makes we want to lynch you. Show nested quote +I did not apologise for pushing him. I apologised if he felt that I was being unfair/overly aggressive in my push. As for my pressuring him and then letting it go, you'll see that my main point against him was his being indecisive. When he actually had a stance on players, I eased off of him, but pretty much everyone here can see he hasn't been around lately, which is why I started posting about him again. This isn't indecision, this is updating my reads based on his behaviour. I criticised hi reads for being indecisive because they were full of "well he could be scum because of A but he might be town because of B ".
So this attitude is basically "I have some things that point him to scum and some to town, but I won't pressure him because if I do he might slip scum". How else can someone be overly aggresive in a push? Isn't it a good think to make see how people react to pressure? Show nested quote +As for Mackin, again, read what I posted earlier in this reply. I pushed him because he was being very indecisive, then he actually posted his stance, so I backed off of him. If I had continued hounding him on my original points after that point in time, I would have been guilty of tunneling him. Also, I have been lynching the more suspicious person, (started on TMG, switched to Hopeless after all the evidence against him, started on Mackin and switched to Zen Man because he seemed to refuse to defend himself properly) I can't help it if I'm active when most others are not. By the time I can come on to check the thread, a lot of my suspicions have already been posted.
Explain to me how that would've been tunneling. You have never just had one person suspicious, in fact you have almost always had 3 (First TMG, Hopeless & Zen. Then TMG, Mackin, me and Zen. Then Zen, mackin and Release. Now YourHarry&Mackin) people being suspicious to you. I don't see how pushing your long-lived case would've been tunneling. His contradiction in the Hopeless case was that he votes on Hopeless based on Hapa's arguments and partially the meta analysis. Then he says the only thing of value is that Hopeless outright lied. Regardless, what I am trying to emphasis is that BassInSpace voting for Hopeless does not make him townie in any sense. When BassInSpace started posting against him, Hopeless had already lied, and as I mentioned, would most likely die within 3 days tops. He saw this mistake and actively started gaining townie points, which is actually something BassInSpace has done consistently. He has more actively tried to gain townie points than lynch who he thinks is suspicious. And when I talk about actively lynching, I am talking about pushing a case and adding to it. BassInSpace hasn't really done that. At all. Rather he has been trying to get on everyone's good side.
My point regarding meta is that even though I'm not a fan of it, it further proved that Hopeless was mafia because it tied in with the scummy posting in this thread. Here's the actual quote from my post
I am not paying much stock to the rest of Hapahauli's case (as I pointed out already) because I don't think those were enough on their own. Also, as much as I actually dislike heavy use of meta, it just adds to the 3 main points that I consider are the most damning in Hopeless's case.
If Hapa's case against Hopeless was based purely or very heavily on meta, then I would not have bought it.
So this attitude is basically "I have some things that point him to scum and some to town, but I won't pressure him because if I do he might slip scum". How else can someone be overly aggresive in a push? Isn't it a good think to make see how people react to pressure?
What are you talking about? I did not pressure him once, I pressured him twice, and he reacted to the pressure by giving us his stance, which is what I wanted. "I won't pressure him"? I did, and he reacted. I said to further pressure him based on my points against him at the time (ie his indecisiveness) would be tunneling. He gave me his stance, pressuring him further based on indecisiveness would have been repeating myself at the time.
you have almost always had 3 (First TMG, Hopeless & Zen. Then TMG, Mackin, me and Zen. Then Zen, mackin and Release. Now YourHarry&Mackin) people being suspicious to you. I don't see how pushing your long-lived case would've been tunneling.
When did I ever say you were suspicious? Saying you were not confirmed town was effectively saying you were a null read. Confirmed town is not the same as suspicious. As for the rest, I am not "juggling" cases. Just because there is a major case going on, doesn't mean that other players get a free pass. This would just give mafia the chance to hide while everyone focuses on the one player, and we would lose valuable discussion time. TMG was my first suspicion before the case against Hopeless had been brought up. It was early day 1, and I found behaviour which I thought was suspicious. Others found his play suspicious as well. If I was spreading unfounded suspicions on players then I would agree, I am purposely "juggling", but I was not. I then decided Hopeless was much more suspicious and decided to vote for him after Hapa brought his points up. Zen hadn't said much at all at that point (lurking), and he hadn't posted those reads he promised. Again, suspicious play.
I kept going after Zen because all he later posted was a summary, followed by absolutely nothing at all for quite awhile. Again, given this suspicious play, I believe I was justified in keeping up pressure on him. The same applies to Mackin; he had not provided us with a proper decisive view on players, so I kept going. I've been after those 2 for justified reasons.
As for Release, what can I say? I felt he was a bit suspicious, but not more suspicious than Zen Man at the time,
On July 08 2012 13:05 BassInSpace wrote:
Regarding Release:
If anything made him look fishy to me, it's his willingness to jump on Lazer (again) based on what is obviously a typo (to put it in Release's own words against Lazer awhile ago, "grasping at straws"), and the vote switch to Jingle without much explanation at all. The post he made listing detective claims could also have been an attempt at making a useful post without actually being all that useful, but this could be stretching it too far.
I don't believe the tone of the post indicated that I found him all that suspicious, though you may argue it's "juggling".
As for YourHarry, I did not like it at all that he had been focusing so much on blue roles and not doing any scum hunting at all. This is why I got suspicious of him originally.
Again, I believe that all of my suspicions were justified. I have not been "juggling" cases/suspicions for the sake of being vague or having back up lynches.
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On July 12 2012 08:27 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 08:20 YourHarry wrote:
Lazer and hapha. Why would I want to kill Bass now, if I am scum. I ask you this again. There is no reason. Scum would want to push a mislynch, especially of a player with a very pro-town history. Scum's best hope is to create an end-game scenario with a bunch of suspicious people.
Derp Derp, you cant know how scum plays, derp derp.
(impersenation of monkey, aka lazermonkey)
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Cant really post long post right now, but i can say that my opinion on Bassin still stands. He is the best lynch for this day.
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Yes, but you are assuming that Release would've been auto-lynched in case if Zen_Man would've flipped green.
Since we had enough information to lynch him already I feel like he wouldn't have lived long should Zen have flipped townie. Especially since the case against Release wasn't born because Zen was innocent. They were two parallel cases and the only reason we picked Zen was because he didn't post a defense, while Release did.
You seem to be building your point (that we've had 50% success rate) on the fact that you do not believe Release would've been lynched since the lynch on him was a follow-up case from Zen being innocent.
This is just my take on what would transpire, however; Just as this makes no real defense for YourHarry, I don't think your points make no real offense against YourHarry.
What I am trying to argue is that the points you brought up on YouHarry are invalid and should not be used against him.
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On July 12 2012 22:08 Evulrabbitz wrote:Show nested quote +Yes, but you are assuming that Release would've been auto-lynched in case if Zen_Man would've flipped green.
Since we had enough information to lynch him already I feel like he wouldn't have lived long should Zen have flipped townie. Especially since the case against Release wasn't born because Zen was innocent. They were two parallel cases and the only reason we picked Zen was because he didn't post a defense, while Release did. You seem to be building your point (that we've had 50% success rate) on the fact that you do not believe Release would've been lynched since the lynch on him was a follow-up case from Zen being innocent. This is just my take on what would transpire, however; Just as this makes no real defense for YourHarry, I don't think your points make no real offense against YourHarry. What I am trying to argue is that the points you brought up on YouHarry are invalid and should not be used against him. That is correct. My point to begin with was how stupid it was for YourHarry to completly dissmiss scum hunting in favour of flipping a coin with 50% chance of success. I don't even agree with it having 50 % chance of success but it was just a way for me to prove my point that YourHarry's logic is very flawed, even ignoring the fact that the chance for Bass to flip scum at this point is way bellow 50%.
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I have sort of come to terms with the fact that my bad play would come to haunt me now. I know I'm going to be lynched but I will say I never liked how much Bass pushed me despite the fact I have never said or done anything I find to be particularly scummy.
I don't see much point in arguing my case, as from my lurkiness I do not see anyone being particularly convinced that I'm not mafia, so my defense would be in trying to push a better case against Bass, who I think is a better case (Looking at Evul's analysis of him which I thought was pretty good). Either way, if you do decide to lynch me and see that I'm VT at least you'll know Bass to be the prime suspect and who I believe to be the scum.
For some reason I have a sneaking suspicion that I might be the miller - I'm not sure why I think this but hopefully I am and when I'm lynched (I think it's too late to convince otherwise) Bass will be the clear option for lynching and it will be townie win.
Ima end with this vote but I don't expect much to be able to convince anyone else:
##Vote BassInSpace
PS. It will be easy for others to say I'm not making a strong defense which is bad but many of those still in the game have blue roles or were confirmed townie by those same blues so they don't have to do anything to prove their innocence. I think it's a lot easier playing blue and there's no real post I can see to convict anyone else at this point. I'll try looking for some dirt later but leaving it here for now.
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On July 12 2012 21:47 The_Zen_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 08:27 Hapahauli wrote:On July 12 2012 08:20 YourHarry wrote:
Lazer and hapha. Why would I want to kill Bass now, if I am scum. I ask you this again. There is no reason. Scum would want to push a mislynch, especially of a player with a very pro-town history. Scum's best hope is to create an end-game scenario with a bunch of suspicious people. Derp Derp, you cant know how scum plays, derp derp. (impersenation of monkey, aka lazermonkey) This is not the same thing at all. Harry claimed that there wasn't a situation where scum would play like he did as an argument for him being town. Hapa proved him wrong.
O, and btw, can you please stop being 100% useless?
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United Kingdom36158 Posts
Mackin, bold your votes!
(searching through many pages for votes, it's the bold you're looking for)
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Correct me if i am wrong, but is there not one miller and one scum that show red for dt check. Therefore, there has to be a 50% chance for him being scum. Analysis is good, but it does not increace or decreace the percentage in any way. This means that there is a 50% chance for him being scum, not "way below" that, as the monkey above me stated.
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EBWOP: I meant lazer, not marv.
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Yes, this is true if you ignore the 45 pages of discussion...
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United Kingdom36158 Posts
On July 12 2012 22:29 The_Zen_Man wrote:
EBWOP: I meant lazer, not marv.
Good job too, or you would have faced my terrible, terrible wrath! <3
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On July 12 2012 22:35 Lazermonkey wrote:
Yes, this is true if you ignore the 45 pages of discussion...
You still dont seem to understand. I dont know if you are not reading my posts, or simply do not know simple math, but no amount of analysis can change the percentage. They are still 50/50, no matter what.
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What are you talking about? I did not pressure him once, I pressured him twice, and he reacted to the pressure by giving us his stance, which is what I wanted. "I won't pressure him"? I did, and he reacted. I said to further pressure him based on my points against him at the time (ie his indecisiveness) would be tunneling. He gave me his stance, pressuring him further based on indecisiveness would have been repeating myself at the time.
This is the post you answered with your apology:
Valid points against me, but could be playing smart mafia trying to lynch the player with some weaknesses in play (aka me). If I get lynched please be careful of him as I'm undecided of why he's pushing me so hard. I really have nothing to hide so if I'm continually pushed I will be suspicious.
He says that he will most likely look suspicious if continually pushed and what you do is apologize for pushing him. I also love the fact that this exact post you are answering is something Hapa is holding against him now. Since you didn't find anything suspicious at all with this post before I guess you can effectively tell Hapa why this post does not make Mackin scummy(Hapa's second point is based on this).
As for the rest of your post. Townies can accidentally play scummy. You seem to base your point on that this would be false. Your defense is that you had substantial evidence. While that might be true it does not tell us you are not mafia. I honestly don't see how leading a case against a townie using substantial evidence is seen as pro-town play. The result is a mis-lynch. Now I do not claim that this makes him Mafia. I am saying to me, this does not clear him.
I would say this is perfect environment for Mafia (this is just pointing it out, I am not holding it against anyone).
I don't believe the tone of the post indicated that I found him all that suspicious, though you may argue it's "juggling".
No, not solely this post.
Currently I'm still waiting on Release to actually post something about the meta case laid against him by Hapa, rather than talk about his little breadcrumb. He never actually said anything in his defense, he just counter cased Hapa. I'm off to bed now, so since there is still half of day 2 to go, I will
##Vote The_Zen_Man
Subject to change should he actually post something decent by the time I'm around again of course.
You point suspicion on Release for the same reason you vote for Zen_Man. The basis being both players lack of defense. There were other points against Zen_Man too, I know that. I am saying this still classifies your actions as "juggling" which you seem to think you have disproved by quoting the most obvious anti-Release post you have made and saying why you thought people were suspicious.
In fact, when I come to think of it. Hapa's whole case against Mackin is based on information which was available to you when you decided he has posted his stance and was fine. Feel free to prove Hapa wrong. Otherwise my point that you are actively pursuing townie point rather than actively pursuing lynch of suspicious of players.
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Either he is the miller or he is not. 50% chance would only apply in game where there were no reads at all. Luckily, this is not the case. Let's do this really simple.
Fact 1: Bass is playing in a townie way.
Fact 2: Bass is either scum or miller.
What is the logical conclusion of these facts?
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Btw, that post was to Zen!
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Edit: Otherwise my point that you are actively pursuing townie point rather than actively pursuing lynch of suspicious of players still stands.
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On July 12 2012 23:26 Lazermonkey wrote:
Either he is the miller or he is not. 50% chance would only apply in game where there were no reads at all. Luckily, this is not the case. Let's do this really simple.
Fact 1: Bass is playing in a townie way.
Fact 2: Bass is either scum or miller.
What is the logical conclusion of these facts?
First of all, you were the one that said that you cant know how mafia plays, therefore you cant know how town plays either. And you still dont seems to understand that the percentages do not change, they are still 50/50.
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On July 13 2012 00:33 The_Zen_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 23:26 Lazermonkey wrote:
Either he is the miller or he is not. 50% chance would only apply in game where there were no reads at all. Luckily, this is not the case. Let's do this really simple.
Fact 1: Bass is playing in a townie way.
Fact 2: Bass is either scum or miller.
What is the logical conclusion of these facts? First of all, you were the one that said that you cant know how mafia plays, therefore you cant know how town plays either. And you still dont seems to understand that the percentages do not change, they are still 50/50. I'm not even sure it's worth arguing with you. I said that because your suspicion on Mackin were largly based on an assumption on how mafia plays which is just WIFOM. Scum will play anti-town. There are however 100 ways of doing that. Town will play in a townie way, but there are once again several ways of doing that. But I don't see how pushing the lynch against a scum on D1 in a newbie game when the second scum is about to get modkilled is anti-town.
As for percentages, you are just stupid. What you say here is that all mafia is about is RNG and that you can't read into anything. Why did you even vote Release D2 then? Was it just a coincidence that you RNGed the same person that almost everyone else voted? Because implying your logic, Hapa would have the same chance of flipping scum as Release had.
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EPT
