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@LunarDestiny (and the rest of you), re: Deucegladlier:
Not only is his posting in this thread poor ... it's 100% worthless. The only reason he's posting is to avoid being modkilled.
The only way he could be contributing to the town right now is if he's in PM contact with anyone here or if he's a medic or DT who's doing something. If he's been PM'ing with you, I'd like to know about it.
Any way you stack it his play has been completely unhelpful and he cannot benefit the town even as just another vote if he doesn't even read enough to vote for someone other than himself. It's actually better for a townie to just accept being modkilled than it is to effectively abstain and never contribute whereas mafia do have an interest to stay alive even if they're not going to play (like I said before).
I'm voting for him on this basis, but we should keep looking at people because we have more lynches in the future. (Or, who knows, maybe Deuce will show up and surprise us with some game-related posts).
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On June 07 2010 09:39 crate wrote:
@LunarDestiny (and the rest of you), re: Deucegladlier:
Not only is his posting in this thread poor ... it's 100% worthless. The only reason he's posting is to avoid being modkilled.
The only way he could be contributing to the town right now is if he's in PM contact with anyone here or if he's a medic or DT who's doing something. If he's been PM'ing with you, I'd like to know about it.
Any way you stack it his play has been completely unhelpful and he cannot benefit the town even as just another vote if he doesn't even read enough to vote for someone other than himself. It's actually better for a townie to just accept being modkilled than it is to effectively abstain and never contribute whereas mafia do have an interest to stay alive even if they're not going to play (like I said before).
I'm voting for him on this basis, but we should keep looking at people because we have more lynches in the future. (Or, who knows, maybe Deuce will show up and surprise us with some game-related posts).
I'm going to chime in quickly here. I think his worthlessness is obvious. I will probably end up voting for him, but am waiting to see what more the day brings.
I expect him to either defend himself or do something worth my attention if he wishes me to change my current opinion.
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On June 07 2010 09:39 crate wrote:
@LunarDestiny (and the rest of you), re: Deucegladlier:
Not only is his posting in this thread poor ... it's 100% worthless. The only reason he's posting is to avoid being modkilled.
The only way he could be contributing to the town right now is if he's in PM contact with anyone here or if he's a medic or DT who's doing something. If he's been PM'ing with you, I'd like to know about it.
Any way you stack it his play has been completely unhelpful and he cannot benefit the town even as just another vote if he doesn't even read enough to vote for someone other than himself. It's actually better for a townie to just accept being modkilled than it is to effectively abstain and never contribute whereas mafia do have an interest to stay alive even if they're not going to play (like I said before).
I'm voting for him on this basis, but we should keep looking at people because we have more lynches in the future. (Or, who knows, maybe Deuce will show up and surprise us with some game-related posts).
I'm still not clear on why we want to take a whack at a guy who's not even been implicated in any of the clues, which is the only solid thing we have to go on. There's legitimate reasons to stay under the radar early in the game as a blue/green player. I'm not defending being a useless player, but I still don't understand why we want to lynch inactives. We should take a crack at people for whom there is a relatively decent evidence trail, imo.
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A temporary voting count:
TheGilaboy(3): LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, CompX.
Deucegladlier(3):Deucegladlier, YellowInk, crate.
It is highly likely that either one lynch target is mafia. Ignoring Deucegladlier's self voting since it is not logical. We have three more inactive players voting for TheGilaboy and two more active and better posters voting for Deucegladlier.
This makes me farther suspects that Deucegladlier is a possible mafia since:
1)Inactive players are voting against active players.
2)TheGilaboy which I consider as average in term of activeness and quality postings vs. Deucegladlier who is very inactive and a bad poster.
I am not saying that LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, and CompX are mafia. I am saying if the mafia want to divert our attention and starts a bandwagon, they want to vote early for a suspicious, pro town target.
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On June 07 2010 09:50 pyr0ma5ta wrote:
I'm still not clear on why we want to take a whack at a guy who's not even been implicated in any of the clues, which is the only solid thing we have to go on. There's legitimate reasons to stay under the radar early in the game as a blue/green player. I'm not defending being a useless player, but I still don't understand why we want to lynch inactives. We should take a crack at people for whom there is a relatively decent evidence trail, imo.
I'm still not clear on why we want to take a whack at a guy who's not even been implicated in any of the behavior analysis, which is the only solid thing we have to go on. There's legitimate reasons to stay under the radar early in the game as a blue/green player, but not legitimate reasons to play in a way that's 100% unhelpful (hence me asking anyone if he's done anything helpful, e.g. PM useful stuff). I'm attacking being a useless player playing in a way that is only ever sensible if you're mafia. We should take a crack at people for whom there is a relatively decent evidence trail, imo.
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I don't think we should put too much emphasis on clues to deduct a person is mafia or not. I am not saying that I should ignore the clues completely since mod posts are concrete information. As town players, we should point out as many clues reference to players as possible and let our detectives choose which clues to check and confirm which clues are relevant.
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Sorry if I am giving you guys a hard time but I have to follow up on the voting behavior:
I check edday 1 voting of Deucegladlier, LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, CompX and I noticed that they are almost the last few voters of the mayor election. Further proving that they might be mafia together...
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On June 07 2010 09:57 LunarDestiny wrote:
A temporary voting count:
TheGilaboy(3): LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, CompX.
Deucegladlier(3):Deucegladlier, YellowInk, crate.
It is highly likely that either one lynch target is mafia. Ignoring Deucegladlier's self voting since it is not logical. We have three more inactive players voting for TheGilaboy and two more active and better posters voting for Deucegladlier.
This makes me farther suspects that Deucegladlier is a possible mafia since:
1)Inactive players are voting against active players.
2)TheGilaboy which I consider as average in term of activeness and quality postings vs. Deucegladlier who is very inactive and a bad poster.
I am not saying that LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, and CompX are mafia. I am saying if the mafia want to divert our attention and starts a bandwagon, they want to vote early for a suspicious, pro town target.
I'm wondering if DeuceGladlier realizes that voting for yourself is a bad idea after day 1...?
Either he's new and doesn't understand this, he's a really really dumb mafia, or he just doesn't want to play anymore.
I'd like to see him post something in his defense before I vote, but he seems to be a good target, at least for now. If he voted for himself because he just didn't understand the game, that's ok, but I agree with what crate said - his posting has been piss-poor so far, and that's unacceptable at this stage in the game.
I will do some more analysis of the clues/closeread the thread later, I'm sorry for my relative inactivity over the last couple of days. I was at a 2-day job training seminar, and for some reason they wouldn't give us internet, despite us working at a tech camp -.-
Oh, and crate - Oberlin CSL: hit Z to win
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If you look at the time of the day 1 vote, mine was significantly ahead of any others. I've given my reasons for it and if I wasn't clear on anything, feel free to ask me 
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On June 07 2010 10:12 LunarDestiny wrote:
Sorry if I am giving you guys a hard time but I have to follow up on the voting behavior:
I check edday 1 voting of Deucegladlier, LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, CompX and I noticed that they are almost the last few voters of the mayor election. Further proving that they might be mafia together...
It's possible, but we also might be too hasty to jump to that conclusion because they've all been inactive, and town as a whole tends to put just a little too much faith in the "lynch inactives to hit mafia" idea. I do like your thinking though, and that's honestly not a bad starting point.
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On June 07 2010 10:00 crate wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2010 09:50 pyr0ma5ta wrote:
I'm still not clear on why we want to take a whack at a guy who's not even been implicated in any of the clues, which is the only solid thing we have to go on. There's legitimate reasons to stay under the radar early in the game as a blue/green player. I'm not defending being a useless player, but I still don't understand why we want to lynch inactives. We should take a crack at people for whom there is a relatively decent evidence trail, imo. I'm still not clear on why we want to take a whack at a guy who's not even been implicated in any of the behavior analysis, which is the only solid thing we have to go on. There's legitimate reasons to stay under the radar early in the game as a blue/green player, but not legitimate reasons to play in a way that's 100% unhelpful (hence me asking anyone if he's done anything helpful, e.g. PM useful stuff). I'm attacking being a useless player playing in a way that is only ever sensible if you're mafia. We should take a crack at people for whom there is a relatively decent evidence trail, imo.
I...I...
I see what you did there. ಠ_ಠ As you already know, I disagree with you completely. However, as this is my first TL Mafia game, I suppose maybe I should just defer to poeple who have played before. It just feels wrong though, as the point of Mafia is for every man to be an island and to be suspicious of everyone. However, in this case, it would seem that I am the only person who thinks this way, so maybe I'm just nuts.
On June 07 2010 10:06 LunarDestiny wrote:
I don't think we should put too much emphasis on clues to deduct a person is mafia or not. I am not saying that I should ignore the clues completely since mod posts are concrete information. As town players, we should point out as many clues reference to players as possible and let our detectives choose which clues to check and confirm which clues are relevant.
I was under the impression that the mod posts do not contain misleading information. If this is incorrect, then indeed I should just STFU. However, I do not consider posting behavior to be concrete because it is sometimes necessary to deceive or be evasive, even as a good guy.
I also want to make it clear that I am not defending Deuce, as he has indeed been a totally useless player, regardless of his actual affiliation. I just disagree with killing players by post count or words-per-post count. And it doesn't make sense to me to ignore the clues that we've been given.
On June 07 2010 10:12 LunarDestiny wrote:
Sorry if I am giving you guys a hard time but I have to follow up on the voting behavior:
I check edday 1 voting of Deucegladlier, LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, CompX and I noticed that they are almost the last few voters of the mayor election. Further proving that they might be mafia together...
I can't speak for the other guys, but I did post my intentions as early as post 260, reinforced by 295. Please refer to those if you don't believe me. I voted late because I wanted to reserve judgement as long as possible, but nothing came up to change my opinion, and I followed through as I had stated I would. If you compare the timestamps, you'll notice I was actually one of the first to make up my mind. Continue to suspect me if you must, but I just wanted to point out some obvious evidence in my defense.
Oh, and one more thing, I do agree with YI's idea of voting for double lynch next round (if not, definitely by the round after). We will soon have enough information, as blue roles begin to reveal and possibilities are killed off, to start pinning people.
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LaxerCannon, when you say your day 1 voting is ahead of others, I think you are referring to the WTF, why so early day2 vote on TheGliBoys.
Again, I am not saying you guys are mafia. I am pointing out consistency in voting behavior. If we lynch DeuceGladlier and he turns mafia. Our next lead will be LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, and CompX.
Because of the voting behavior in additional of the previous mentioned reason for DeuceGladlier being mafia. I will now cast my vote on lynching DeuceGladlier.
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On June 07 2010 10:33 LunarDestiny wrote:
LaxerCannon, when you say your day 1 voting is ahead of others, I think you are referring to the WTF, why so early day2 vote on TheGliBoys.
Again, I am not saying you guys are mafia. I am pointing out consistency in voting behavior. If we lynch DeuceGladlier and he turns mafia. Our next lead will be LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, and CompX.
Because of the voting behavior in additional of the previous mentioned reason for DeuceGladlier being mafia. I will now cast my vote on lynching DeuceGladlier.
For one, having DeuceGladlier turn mafia is not a very good argument to make us (well this argument is for me >__>) suspects. I for one feel that both have reasons to be suspected but also feel that TheGilaBoy is the more suspicious of the two.
That being said, I highly doubt DeuceGladlier will turn out mafia: if he is indeed mafia, he should've came out to defend himself already. If he does indeed do so and do a suspicious job of it, I will of course switch my vote. But for now, TheGilaBoy will remain as my vote.
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I also disagree with a double lynch because I feel that it should be saved for two stronger suspects. However, I do admit that my opinions should be taken with a grain of salt as I do not participate in mafia games as often.
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As far as clues go, go look at any past TL game with clues (Pyrry's game; TL Mafia VIII; and TL Mafia 5 are games I've read that contained clues).
(Note that while MrBabyHands claims to have some clue analysis in TL Mafia 5 and does target the mafia, the actual analysis doesn't point to the right clues).
Red herrings crop up naturally when writing the posts, though they're usually not deliberately added. decafchicken is the most famous victim here and hence the running joke.
Historically TL mafia game clue analysis has been terribly ineffective. They're a great talking point and if you have other reasons to be suspicious you can then go look at clues and possibly get more suspicious ... but the fact that TL mafia games have been run without clues for a long time and the quality of the games has improved says something.
In my experiences following the threads here they've been mostly clue-less and in Pyrry's game (which I played in) the clues didn't help at all.
My stance on clues is just based on precedent.
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I changed my opinion about TheGilaBoy a while ago, but I haven't state my reason. So I will do it now.
The picture on the TheGilaBoy is a dt. Of course that will make him an easy mafia target. I don't think it is fair just to say dt=assassin.
The suspicion of TheGilaBoy comes from the death of ElyAs:
1)The "hastily constructed barricades" reference to "Twilight Fortress" in TheGilaBoys' profile is irrelevant since "hastily constructed barricades" refers to other townies constructing their home.
2)Someone already mentioned that ElyAs was out ran by the killer. Dark Templar is not known for its speed.
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On June 07 2010 10:33 LunarDestiny wrote:
LaxerCannon, when you say your day 1 voting is ahead of others, I think you are referring to the WTF, why so early day2 vote on TheGliBoys.
Again, I am not saying you guys are mafia. I am pointing out consistency in voting behavior. If we lynch DeuceGladlier and he turns mafia. Our next lead will be LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, and CompX.
Because of the voting behavior in additional of the previous mentioned reason for DeuceGladlier being mafia. I will now cast my vote on lynching DeuceGladlier.
As 4chan might say, "weak logic is weak."
I may have never played TL Mafia before, but I've played at least 20 games of Mafia on other sites, and if there's anything I'm sure of, it's that connecting timing of posts is worse than random. You end up connecting things like sleep schedules and time zones, rather than anything else. I personally see this impending lynch bandwagon on Deuce almost as a non-vote, removing a useless player rather than someone we actually think is Mafia. Because he's useless so far and has refused to even defend himself in the slightest (perhaps he's not even checking the thread), I'm inclined to think he's just a green. If he were Mafia, he would be more likely to be checking the thread and trying to say things. That being said, I'm not entirely opposed to removing him, especially as getting 1 guy who I do think is Mafia (Gila) does not lower their kill power, or else I'd be pushing harder.
Anyway, I digress. The point of this post is to warn stridently against using post/vote timing as evidence. Rather, one should use vote count/records as actual concrete evidence. Be careful when you point fingers. Misguided accusations make you look exceedingly suspicious. I want to clarify that I don't find you suspicious right now, but a couple more of these hyper-hawk comments and I'll be voting for you soon.
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Another thing to consider is how organized are the mafia? Do they plan their actions before hand (what they say in the thread) or do they just let everyone freelance and do as they please?
Because this game is supposedly a newbies games leads me to believe that the mafia veterans (mafia who have played before) will try to make sure that the newbie mafias don't do stupid shit - like deuce is. As the night goes on it'll get more interesting with the defenses.
If I had to choose between Gila and Deuce I'd choose Gila... even then I feel rather neutral about him.
In fact if I had to choose I would lynch a "middle of the pack" poster (someone who is neither inactive or active, minimal contribution).
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That was a great catch from you LunarDestiny on the voting paterns! But don't you think you should of kept it quiet for at least a day or 2 more?
Because as it is right now the lynch voting seems to be going for Deuce ( seems very inactive and doesn't care about the game ) or Gilaboy ( basing it mainly on clues ). I think if you would of kept that voting pattern to yourself a little longer and realized they all kept voting near the same time it would of been so solid!
But now that you called them out on it this early even if they aren't all mafia I think they are going to vote at different times just to get less suspicion on them.
Great analysis too crate. In my earlier posts I did say I was suspicious of both YI and Darth but in later posts I say I do trust them for the time being but I still think we should be wary of their posts because it's a possibility that either or is a mafia.
On the zeks thing I thought I was clearish  . I was suspicious of zeks because he was one of the first people to run for mayor, which as you guys said mafia tends to do and tries to get a bandwagon, but no one voted for him. Zeks also has a ninja character in his profile that uses knives, they are stealthy and quick but this is only basing it on his clues.
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On June 07 2010 10:50 LunarDestiny wrote:
I changed my opinion about TheGilaBoy a while ago, but I haven't state my reason. So I will do it now.
The picture on the TheGilaBoy is a dt. Of course that will make him an easy mafia target. I don't think it is fair just to say dt=assassin.
The suspicion of TheGilaBoy comes from the death of ElyAs:
1)The "hastily constructed barricades" reference to "Twilight Fortress" in TheGilaBoys' profile is irrelevant since "hastily constructed barricades" refers to other townies constructing their home.
for 1) Twilight Fortress clue is a MAP. The towns are constructing hastily built barricades thus providing a "map" for the mafia. Of course, I don't think this is a good clue either but I'm just pointing out how one may come to this connection.
for 2)It was never explicitly stated that the mafia chasing ElyAs was faster - just that he appeared before the front steps before ElyAs. I've provided a possible explanation in that stalkers can blink and his profile contains the picture of a stalker. Of course there are other explanations like defying physics etc.
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EPT
