EPTMost of the players here are from North America and their votings are spread out across the voting period. And it is such a coincidence that four players who voted late on one day, voted early when one of them is in danger of being the lynch target.
TL Mafia XXVI - Page 39
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
Most of the players here are from North America and their votings are spread out across the voting period. And it is such a coincidence that four players who voted late on one day, voted early when one of them is in danger of being the lynch target. | ||
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crate
United States2474 Posts
I think with that I'll be off to bed for the night. Haven't thought much about double lynch myself, but I'll talk about it tomorrow. | ||
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
On June 07 2010 11:02 LunarDestiny wrote: pyr0ma5ta, you say that people voting based on their sleep schedules and time zones. I disagree with that statement. Most of the players here are from North America and their votings are spread out across the voting period. And it is such a coincidence that four players who voted late on one day, voted early when one of them is in danger of being the lynch target. I wouldn't really consider myself a lynch target because the worst that I did was become inactive in day 1. In the end all I wanted to say in day 1 had already been said (through my sloppy analysis before day 1 ended). The only other reason to suspect me would be my quote "just keep swimming" and the fountain clue. | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
1)Thegilaboys has a reference of winning Twilight Fortress with Dark Templars. Hastily built barricades refers to Twilight Fortress. And ElyAs is killed in a town (the map Twilight Fortress. This is too far fetch 2)Now you think it is TheGilaBoys, the stalker who blink to beat ElyAs to the courthouse. Then this reason just disprove reason #1 about winning Twilight Fortress with Dark Templar. Also to point out that blink is a active move which requires cool off time (stalker can not out run a zealot) and blink doesn't move you too far. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
In the last Big Important Mafia game I played (I believe it was XXII), town was not doing so hot, so they tried to use their double-lynches starting day 3. All they accomplished was killing town twice as fast, as they lynched 2 town players a day instead of 1 (iirc they got 1 mafia using 2 double lynches, so 3 town also died). Doubly lynches absolutely should not be used unless we have two very clear targets, and we are very sure both targets are mafia. In this game so far, discounting any "mafias-would-be-inactive-so-lets-get-inactives" evidence, I only see clue-based (i.e. worthless) and circumstantial evidence that anyone is mafia. Thus, I am going to say no to double-lynching for at least one more day, because I don't think evidence is strong enough yet to warrant it. Remember, double-lynch may seem cool, but it's actually a gamble. It can turn defeat into victory for the town, but it can also kill them that much faster. | ||
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pyr0ma5ta
United States458 Posts
On June 07 2010 11:02 LunarDestiny wrote: pyr0ma5ta, you say that people voting based on their sleep schedules and time zones. I disagree with that statement. Most of the players here are from North America and their votings are spread out across the voting period. And it is such a coincidence that four players who voted late on one day, voted early when one of them is in danger of being the lynch target. Shrug, go for it. If you feel that my posting should be lumped in with those other players, and that their role status reflects mine, you are of course free to vote any way appropriately. It is indeed true that LaXer, CompX, and I voted relatively close in time and for the same person, but I could say the same for crate, onihunter, Hugoboss, and Elyas (half an hour separate their votes in round 1). Choose to believe what you want, but just remember how terrible the human brain is at recognizing probability. It only takes 23 people in a roomto reach 50% probability of a pair having the same birthday. Coincidences abound, and not every one has meaning. I am just reminding you (and more importantly, the rest of the town) that if things turn out poorly, to remember where this terrible idea came from. | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
You have to agree that DeuceGladlier is a much better lynch target than TheGilaBoys. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On June 07 2010 11:17 pyr0ma5ta wrote: I am just reminding you (and more importantly, the rest of the town) that if things turn out poorly, to remember where this terrible idea came from. You are the only person who thinks it's a bad idea, and you are one of the people indicted by the statement. Until someone who isn't one of the four people mentioned comes out and posts, I'm not really inclined to listen to you whine about how an idea to lynch you is a bad idea, especially given your evidence so far (LD is right, voting is traditionally all over the place and random, so large groups of people voting together is suspicious.) | ||
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
On June 07 2010 11:15 LunarDestiny wrote: LaXerCannon, so your reason for lynching TheGilaBoy is based on: 1)Thegilaboys has a reference of winning Twilight Fortress with Dark Templars. Hastily built barricades refers to Twilight Fortress. And ElyAs is killed in a town (the map Twilight Fortress. This is too far fetch 2)Now you think it is TheGilaBoys, the stalker who blink to beat ElyAs to the courthouse. Then this reason just disprove reason #1 about winning Twilight Fortress with Dark Templar. Also to point out that blink is a active move which requires cool off time (stalker can not out run a zealot) and blink doesn't move you too far. I already displayed the fact that I believe this is a far fetched relation. Also, I never mentioned anything about Dark Templar just the twilight fortress part of it. For blinking distance, the masked figure remained close enough to keep an eye on ElyAs even during night time, I believe that blink should be able to cover that distance. Then again, arguing the distance of blink is really pointless. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On June 07 2010 11:00 MooCow wrote: That was a great catch from you LunarDestiny on the voting paterns! But don't you think you should of kept it quiet for at least a day or 2 more? Because as it is right now the lynch voting seems to be going for Deuce ( seems very inactive and doesn't care about the game ) or Gilaboy ( basing it mainly on clues ). I think if you would of kept that voting pattern to yourself a little longer and realized they all kept voting near the same time it would of been so solid! But now that you called them out on it this early even if they aren't all mafia I think they are going to vote at different times just to get less suspicion on them. Great analysis too crate. In my earlier posts I did say I was suspicious of both YI and Darth but in later posts I say I do trust them for the time being but I still think we should be wary of their posts because it's a possibility that either or is a mafia. On the zeks thing I thought I was clearish  . I was suspicious of zeks because he was one of the first people to run for mayor, which as you guys said mafia tends to do and tries to get a bandwagon, but no one voted for him. Zeks also has a ninja character in his profile that uses knives, they are stealthy and quick but this is only basing it on his clues.We can't really afford to keep things quiet for too long because the longer we wait the stronger mafia get. I think this is a decent time to have stated this observation, as we've seen a good number of them are voting off gila, so I say vote off gila then maybe go for the most suspicious poster of them and we could see if we are on to something. Even regarding clues, we could connect gila and multiple ones from the group. As for MTF's connection to me, I always thought it was standard that townies being killed were doing something like looking at mafia-related papers or inspecting bodies and what not. But now that you mention it, professor layton would be a prime example of someone who is always analyzing and looking for clues. Just saying it seems unintentional by flamewheel. Plus, I dont wanna lynched so early based on clues lolI'll keep my vote on gila for now, but i havent really looked at his posts. Deuce deserves to get lynched, but i couldnt imagine why a mafia would vote for himself. Maybe alot of mafia made adverse comments towards him and they feel that will help clear his name? Still ridiculously silly so hes just an apathetic towny in my book and should ask to be modkilled if hes going to go about it like that. | ||
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pyr0ma5ta
United States458 Posts
On June 07 2010 11:21 BrownBear wrote: You are the only person who thinks it's a bad idea, and you are one of the people indicted by the statement. Until someone who isn't one of the four people mentioned comes out and posts, I'm not really inclined to listen to you whine about how an idea to lynch you is a bad idea, especially given your evidence so far (LD is right, voting is traditionally all over the place and random, so large groups of people voting together is suspicious.) 1) Read 2) Interpret 3) Post I'm not whining. Re-read my posts. Use math. When 17 people vote for Darth, what's the probability that a couple of them will also vote for the same person the next round when there are only 2 poeple being voted for? mmmkthx. I feel like a bloody broken record. I'm not trying to change his mind, as I've conceded he's allowed to vote as he chooses. I'm pointing out a particularly horrible line of logic that is likely to point 3 future lynches at, well, people who happen to have similar sleep schedules. | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
So LaXer, you reasons for Lynching TheGilaBoys are: Stalker: Mask Figure. Stalker uses blink to beat EylAs to the court house. I want to point out that ElyAs ran from the lynch location to the courthouse. We don't know the distance from the lynch location to the courthouse So further argues about it is useless. Second, I want to point out that the killer use a knife for his crime. I do not think stalker has a knife and can use a knife to kill. | ||
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
On June 07 2010 11:32 LunarDestiny wrote: A masked figure followed him, and stealthily kept to the shadows, not letting ElyAs out of his sight. ElyAs moved quickly, breaking into a quick run, hoping to make it back home before he was overtaken. However, he was not to make it. As ElyAs passed by the town courthouse, he noticed that he had already been beaten--the masked figure was sitting on the steps. ElyAs gasped, but in an instant his life had been snuffed out, and the killer walked away with a bloodied knife. So LaXer, you reasons for Lynching TheGilaBoys are: Stalker: Mask Figure. Stalker uses blink to beat EylAs to the court house. I want to point out that ElyAs ran from the lynch location to the courthouse. We don't know the distance from the lynch location to the courthouse So further argues about it is useless. Second, I want to point out that the killer use a knife for his crime. I do not think stalker has a knife and can use a knife to kill. This is of course we're assuming that TheGilaBoys is strictly a Stalker and not just borrowing properties from the Stalker and DT. Otherwise yes your logic makes sense. | ||
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
-"in an instant his life had been snuffed out...a bloodied knife" A slash from a DT is pretty powerful and also the knife clue -The blink clue -Stalker can be taken literally if we see how the figure's following ElyAs -ElyAs never saw the DT until his final moments, DT was cloaking? (again this is a weak clue) | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
If you compare reasons for lynching TheGilaBoys (very questionable clues but also a more useful poster) to lynching Deucegladlier (inactive and horrible posters, voting behavior between LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, CompX, and Deucegladlier). If Deucegladlier can step up and do some explaining and maybe even contribute, otherwise I say lynching Deucegladlier is a better choice. | ||
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
On June 07 2010 11:56 LaXerCannon wrote: I am also waiting for Deucegladlier to step up and say something. If he doesn't, I'll maintain that he's innocent. If he's mafia he would step up in an attempt to defend himself. What kind of reason is that? Not saying anything=innocent Arguing his reasons=mafia | ||
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
I don't think double-lynching is necessary now. Why double lynch people that are inactive? Shouldn't we save it for when we know the mafia members instead? About the voting schedule. I think this could be significant. The probability of three posters voting at approximately the same time is not that high. We shouldn't lynch on this fact, but keep it in mind. At the very least, we can see who is reading the thread and who is not. @Darth I don't know why you call my posts bull. If I shouldn't be connecting clues, what should I be doing? It seems like a lot of the thread is discussing what to do, but I don't have the experience to decide what the best thing to do is. Tell me what to discuss. | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
On June 07 2010 12:01 LaXerCannon wrote: My reasoning is that if he doesn't defend himself he's probably green (he's bored of playing). It also depends on how he defends himself. (>__>) If you use this logic on mafia then you will have a hard time finding the mafia: The town accuses someone of being mafia. That person does not respond therefore not mafia. Do you know the reason why we lynch inactive on the first day? In the nature of mafia, those who are inactive tend to have a higher chance of being mafia. | ||
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