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On June 07 2010 12:15 DCLXVI wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2010 11:27 pyr0ma5ta wrote:On June 07 2010 11:21 BrownBear wrote:On June 07 2010 11:17 pyr0ma5ta wrote:
I am just reminding you (and more importantly, the rest of the town) that if things turn out poorly, to remember where this terrible idea came from. You are the only person who thinks it's a bad idea, and you are one of the people indicted by the statement. Until someone who isn't one of the four people mentioned comes out and posts, I'm not really inclined to listen to you whine about how an idea to lynch you is a bad idea, especially given your evidence so far (LD is right, voting is traditionally all over the place and random, so large groups of people voting together is suspicious.) 1) Read 2) Interpret 3) Post I'm not whining. Re-read my posts. Use math. When 17 people vote for Darth, what's the probability that a couple of them will also vote for the same person the next round when there are only 2 poeple being voted for? mmmkthx. I feel like a bloody broken record. I'm not trying to change his mind, as I've conceded he's allowed to vote as he chooses. I'm pointing out a particularly horrible line of logic that is likely to point 3 future lynches at, well, people who happen to have similar sleep schedules. Don't worry about it, you can't please everyone. Some people will just pretend to read your posts or purposely misinterpret what you say (I'm looking at you littlechava) Oh, another one of your incredible analyses posted I see.
Let's take a look back at our discourse:
On June 06 2010 15:16 DCLXVI wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2010 14:58 littlechava wrote:
That said, Thegilaboy has actually been voted for already, and it doesn't seem like such a terrible choice since he's one of the few with multiple clues pointing towards him. If I was going to vote based solely on clues, I'd be voting for either Thegilaboy or zeks. Well if we hang him and he turns out to be townie, then we should hang you. It seems quite suspicious to accuse someone that quickly and try to bring down suspicion on him. At least try to list out a few possible clue connections and scum sounding posts/actions before accusing active people like that.
Okay, so you ignore the first half of my post where I say we shouldn't hang based on clues. Then, you go on to say that *if* we hang based on clues, the next target should be myself, for no good reason other than the fact that I, among others, have pointed out that Thegilaboy and zeks have had clues point towards them.
Do you mind pointing out the other posts where I "ignore" or "purposely pretend to read and misinterpret what you say"? You mean like, the post where you agree with what I say, while still disagreeing with me, then go on to say I'm disagreeing with you? (WTF?)
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Ok, here's my rough analysis of crate, littlechava, and zeks.
Crate:
+ Show Spoiler +
-Delves into details of game rules. Exchanges PM with flamewheel regarding the existence of role blocking mafia.
-Post #243: Discusses situation where medic successfully saves. He mentions that the medic should PM the person he saved, so that person will know 100% that who a medic is.
-Repeatedly says he's going to avoid clue analysis because he's bad at it.
-Says that threatening to go after inactives only has teeth if you lynch inactives. Begins accusing Deuce for the first time and is neutral on Gilga.
-Most of his posts are long and carefully crafted.
town [--|-------] mafia
littlechava:
+ Show Spoiler +-Has spent time analyzing clues but disagrees with making hasty decisions based off of them -Says he trusts crate -Says a mafia could pretend to be a medic who saved MTF:
He's suggesting that the medic who saved MTF come out and tell MTF that he's a blue role/they're both on the same side. Questionable tactic though, since MTF probably wouldn't be able to trust the guy - it could just be some mafia member trying to gain his trust. MTF has no way of verifying whether the person PMing him actually saved him.
That's a weird post, because clearly in that case MTF would get PMs from 2 "medics" and we would have some solid evidence that 1 of them is mafia (which crate pointed out earlier I believe). That would actually help the town. -Says he "guesses" that deuce should be targeted after someone mentions his name. (Bandwagoning behavior) -Very few of his posts really contain much content, several apologize for being inactive, many one liners. Comments: Overall his behavior is a little strange. He enters into most important discussions but his post doesn't add much. It's as if he's trying to put on the appearance of being an active townie without actually contributing anything. I'm not ready to drop a verdict on him at this point so let's give him another day or so.
town [------|---] mafia
zeks:
+ Show Spoiler +
-Active in clue scraping early on
-Very much against YI for mayor
-Ran for mayor
-Claims townie
-Butt hurt about not getting support for mayor
-Inactivity plummets after not getting elected
-Argues against double lynch
-Asks for clarifaction on whether the vet/medic hit save is discernable for the mafia
Comments: I'm inclined to think zeks is likely town. Most of what he says makes sense, and his story of going for a mayor or pardoner role due to being vanilla townie adds up, as does his period of inactivity after his election failed.
town [--|-------] mafia
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Sooo I was out all day but now I'm starting to read TT brutal amount of reading but here I go~
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Yep, I think deuce is our best lynch today, so I'm going to vote for him now. I might change to Gila if something happens, but deuce is a far better lynch.
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YI's idea about calling out Deuce by voting on him early seems solid, will do that after I post this.
About the whole MTF being saved discussion. If there is at least one person we can assume to be townie (YI/Darth?) shouldn't it be possible to determine if MTF is actually telling the truth?
MTF can PM the person we choose to trust, saying if he is veteran or if he got saved by medic.
The potential medic PMs the same person saying he saved MTF.
As AFJ pointed out, the mafia should not dare to PM with a fake medic since this would give us a confirmed mafia if the real medic PMed as well.
We also don't need to specify to the town if he is a veteran or not, just that he is not mafia. Since a medic has already saved him, it would be a bit of a gamble for mafia to try to kill him again.
Unless the mafia can choose to kill the same person? Or abstain. (which would also be a slight gamble of trying to get townie credit early on)
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First of all, addressing what seems to have been the focus of the last few pages: when it comes down to clues vs posting behavior, I side with posting behavior. It's a personal preference, maybe simply because I've never played with clues before. Clues can be ambiguous and point to multiple people, etc. For the most part, clues are left up to interpretation. That being said, unless the town agrees on a better target (ie. not Thegilaboy) for some other reason, I'm voting for Deuce. He obviously doesn't care about the game - I'm not convinced he's mafia, but let's get rid of him now so that we're not wondering later if we're letting some mafia slide by with literally minimum effort.
My thoughts on what Deuce is doing: he's doing the minimum to stay alive, etc. But it's not logical for him to do what he did. Let's look through it.
He's Vanilla Townie: he's new (right?) and doesn't care about the game because he thinks he got a boring role. OK. So logically, he wouldn't post or vote at all.
He's Blue Role: he's pretending like he doesn't care, but actually trying to hide. But this doesn't make sense because by posting the way he did, he's just attracting attention to himself by making a retarded post and voting for himself without explanation.
He's Mafia: he's trying to lay low and vote for himself, passing it off as abstaining. But like the blue role idea, making a retarded post like he did and not following up just attracts attention, which defeats the purpose of his goal??
Conclusion: He's retarded - I swear, he has the IQ of a paper bag or something. If he can post in the KPop thread, he can post here. It's players like this that give mafia even more of an advantage in the game. Personally, I don't think he would post at all if he were bored town. And if he were blue, he wouldn't be bored... usually. But! I speak from experience [look up PYP Mafia, and sidesprang - he didn't post and got lynched early (on some solid logic sure, but it wasn't foolproof), when he could have defended himself and possibly survived another day or two] when I say that being on a team of mafia isn't as exciting as being a detective, or a medic, or a veteran. Heck, I think DT is probably the most exciting role in the game - I felt so powerful in Caller's 3 Kingdom game lol. Anyway, I could very easily imagine a situation where - especially with 6 members - the other mafia are just begging Deuce to "at least" post and not get modkilled, etc., so he comes and does this.
So this is mainly why I lean toward Deuce NOT being blue and more likely being red. Not 100% sure - maybe not even 50% tbh, but there's not much to go on here -_-.
Hope this all made sense... I feel like it might be a big post of rambling.
Anyway. similar to before, this is going to be a big post, unless the only thing you guys talk about is Deuce vs Thegilaboy.
@LD: Your theory about the 4 inactives voting together, etc. is not to be forgotten or taken lightly. Not because of some time zone or something like that but because we have 3 people - who were notably inactive before Day 2 - come out of nowhere and all of a sudden start posting a lot more, but all pointing the finger at the same person while the thread is quiet, trying to get someone killed based on clue analysis. It's suspicious, but it's not condemning. BUT. It's good that, if you are all town, that you're voicing your thoughts, posting, etc. Keep the posting up.
To clarify: don't get me wrong. Clue analysis is good. But to me, it's extra. Posting behavior analysis is better, such as what crate and MTF have done before in this thread. Again, I don't want to hear it (about clues) unless it's new and plausible - people have been better about this I think, and I thank you. And to force players to analyze other players let's us see later what impressions they had of who - anyone who flips mafia, we can look through their posts and check if they "skipped" over some people, etc.
uhh... ignoring any clue vs posting debate.
@BB: Hey man, was worried where you went. Welcome back :p. Did you do Oberlin CSL o.o? Meh, I guess the only person I know from that teams is Sunyveil heh.
@whoever: I'm not going to worry about posting times. That's too technical for me, I'll leave it up to you guys. If people keep talking about it, I'll think about it a little more. But tbh, it's just something extra, and weaker than the day clues. Without the "scummy poster" backbone, it doesn't mean much to me.
@pyro: Yes, be suspicious of everyone, but don't go overboard. Keep your guard up, but don't jump at people's throats. Doing that makes people like me raise my eyebrows at you and start looking through your posting history. The mod posts are not "wrong" but I expect them to contain either vague or slightly misleading information. If the clues were at all obvious, then the game would be too easy for town. Not going to think too much about the voting patterns at this point, although I'll have to at some point >_>.
@LD/LaXer: Stop bickering =P. Actually, continue, it's interesting to watch hehe. More info for the rest of us. LaXer, not all mafia come and defend themselves. Especially Deuce's type if he is mafia (based on my analysis earlier in this post). Like I said, some mafia don't care enough to do more than whatever it is they feel obligated to do. From his perspective, he might have already fulfilled what his team asked him to do, even though they might be spamming in their mafia forum / PMs asking where he is. He could easily be offline or just not checking the thread. Not everyone bookmarks TL Mafia separately along with TL in their bookmarks bar like me =].
@zeks: when I was mafia in PYP, I hmm... I'm not sure we organized anything. Crap, I wish I remembered. Well of course, we organized the number and role selections, but in terms of posting, I don't think we organized anything. But it was only 4 of us, I was still newbie, sidesprang was afk, Zona became afk, and Foolishness was uh. He was pro xD, but I guess more of a loner act. Still, something that would be good to notice (if you can) when doing posting analyses of multiple people is any connection, or any uhh.. any... common theme (? can't think of a better wording) between their posting. crate has a bit of this (his "possible connections" section at the end of his analyses).
Veterans can't always stop the newbies from doing stuff. See this thread, for instance. lol.
I might consider lynching a different target as well, but we want to be careful about who we pick and if we do, we need to get on it ASAP with clear logic right away, or else it's a bit of a last-minute switch. Definitely don't want to switch the town vote and fail to lynch unnecessarily. Judging by the current time and the fact that a lot of us are American time, I think it's too late for this - most of us will wake up, go to work or school, etc., and possibly be busy for too long to look in the thread and do anything but bandwagon. Honestly, I don't expect an answer to this post for another 4-6 hours.
@MooCow: uhh. Hopefully I can do a fuller review of your poster at the end of this post. Hopefully I manage to stay awake lol. It won't be as good or nice as crates, but it'll have to do ^^.
@BB/Double Lynch: I agree. Ideally, we would use the double lynch and hit two mafia, but we don't have the information for that (afaik) right now.
<skip stuff>
@bumatlarge: I'm not sure you understood correctly.. sure, generally, you want information to get out, but information that could potentially lead to catching mafia you want to keep hush hush, maybe share with someone you trust so that they don't get to dodge it.
@LaXer: Terrible logic like LD said.
Not saying anything=innocent
Arguing his reasons=mafia
uhh, yea that don't work.
@Misder: I'm not sure. I'll double check later. When I read your post, I thought some of your stuff was based on a wrong name or something.
@The MTF deal: He never claimed he was protected by a medic or he's a veteran. All he did was say "I was hit". It's possible that he's mafia and making up a complex scheme. Keep that in mind as we continue playing. But it's not enough to incriminate him right now. A rolecheck on him might be appropriate at some point, but it's not something we should worry about right now. As far as I'm concerned. he's pretty pro-town.
AFJ lookin' a bit more suspicious fishing for info about MTF... at this point, it's not important for the town to know whether or not MTF was saved last night or took a hit as veteran. Letting the mafia know that information helps them more than us. It's good to tell the town "I took a hit" because the mafia already knows who they targeted last night, and that kind of information can only help the town. End discussion.
@littlechava: deep breaths, don't get too offended by stuff on the internet ^^.
@AFJ: Nice! Analysis. Brownie points for you.
crate's has had good ideas and good analysis so far in the game. Not clear, of course, but leaning pro-town at this point.
littlechava - you're right in that his posts could use a little work, but I'm less concerned about him and more worried about the other 5-10 inactives / crap posters in the game.
zeks - hmm. I'm not excusing zeks for his inactivity plummet. Well, overall, the town's activity has plummeted since the end of day 1, but even relative to that, I've been feeling the lack of zeks. Not sure what to think of him at this point, and whether or not this is a classic mafia fade. @zeks: we could use your thoughts man =p.
@Zyrre: Your plan is unnecessary, as far as I can tell.
If MTF was saved last night, the medic who protected him should feel free to PM him, roleclaim, etc. MTF has no reason to distrust this person.
Why?
Because mafia don't know if MTF is a veteran or not. They targeted him. They can't assume that he was protected by a medic - therefore, fake claiming medic to him is a 50-50 shot (excuse my math if it's wrong), which is too high risk for me to consider a viable option.
Take that away, and the only scenario in which someone roleclaim-PMs MTF is if they are the real medic. If he's veteran and gets any medic PMs, well, that's a done deal. And I assume that MTF would notify the town immediately if anything were strange in his neighborhood.
Or are you suggesting something else? From what I can tell, your plan just includes an unnecessary middle man?
Uh what? mafia can stack kills, yes. They can also abstain but that's not in their interest - they might as well stack kills in that case.
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Had a post prepared about how the plan essentially gave the town some free information in response to DTA. But looking through MTF's posts again, the chance of him being mafia seems so low I wont bother with it 
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I want to remind everyone that our town retard deuce is not the only inactive. For example:
CompX only has a few posts and in one of them he even said
guys, I think ElyAs can be a mafia
That's a little weird. Gives no excuse for inactivity.
3 Lions only has a few posts, and they are entirely focused on accusing people based on clues. He gives the excuse of being the end of school term for why he's inactive.
Hugoboss21 just has a few useless posts about who to elect as mayor. Gives no excuse for inactivity.
I don't mind lynching deuce today, but let's see if we can get some more juicy candidates before we reach a majority. The only evidence we have against deuce is him acting like an idiot (no clues, no posting behavior).
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Also, TyranoS_NiveK has been very inactive. Starts off by saying it's his first mafia game. Then claims he'll only be on every other day due to a math competition. But he hasn't posted in two days.
He's also linked to the "super fast assassin" clue as was pointed out earlier by sputnik, since both him and MooCow share exactly the same profile and it's plausible that it wasn't just a fast assassin but 2 different people.
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AcrossFiveJuly, you have to accept that this is a mafia game for newer players and not everyone will be willing to keep up with the insane amount of reading.
I like to look at a poster's recent posts not just here but on Teamliquid. TyranoS_NiveK fits into the category of "I don't care about Teamliquid."
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On June 07 2010 20:32 LunarDestiny wrote:
AcrossFiveJuly, you have to accept that this is a mafia game for newer players and not everyone will be willing to keep up with the insane amount of reading.
I like to look at a poster's recent posts not just here but on Teamliquid. TyranoS_NiveK fits into the category of "I don't care about Teamliquid."
Then why are you so adamant about lynching deuce? He fits into that same category. Here are a few of your posts trying to get everyone to vote for deuce:
On June 07 2010 11:45 LunarDestiny wrote:
LaXerCannon, okay. If you say that the TheGilaBoys use both quality of Stalker and DT for his crime then this is all I have to say. But you have to agree that combining the quality of both character is possible but not likely.
If you compare reasons for lynching TheGilaBoys (very questionable clues but also a more useful poster) to lynching Deucegladlier (inactive and horrible posters, voting behavior between LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, CompX, and Deucegladlier).
If Deucegladlier can step up and do some explaining and maybe even contribute, otherwise I say lynching Deucegladlier is a better choice.
[QUOTE]On June 07 2010 11:21 LunarDestiny wrote:
You have to agree that DeuceGladlier is a much better lynch target than TheGilaBoys.[/QUOTE
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FIXED ABOVE POST
On June 07 2010 20:32 LunarDestiny wrote:
AcrossFiveJuly, you have to accept that this is a mafia game for newer players and not everyone will be willing to keep up with the insane amount of reading.
I like to look at a poster's recent posts not just here but on Teamliquid. TyranoS_NiveK fits into the category of "I don't care about Teamliquid."
Then why are you so adamant about lynching deuce? He fits into that same category. Here are a few of your posts trying to get everyone to vote for deuce:
On June 07 2010 11:45 LunarDestiny wrote:
LaXerCannon, okay. If you say that the TheGilaBoys use both quality of Stalker and DT for his crime then this is all I have to say. But you have to agree that combining the quality of both character is possible but not likely.
If you compare reasons for lynching TheGilaBoys (very questionable clues but also a more useful poster) to lynching Deucegladlier (inactive and horrible posters, voting behavior between LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, CompX, and Deucegladlier).
If Deucegladlier can step up and do some explaining and maybe even contribute, otherwise I say lynching Deucegladlier is a better choice.
On June 07 2010 11:21 LunarDestiny wrote:
You have to agree that DeuceGladlier is a much better lynch target than TheGilaBoys.
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Oh btw, ARML (the math competition) was over the weekend, so he would've gotten back like last night. =P
ARML is only once a year though, so it's not like he can use that excuse again. So give TyranoS_NiveK a day or two before you get all omg inactive on him because ARML is legit. xP
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FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
ARML is quite cool indeed.
Lehigh completely dominates at relays @_@
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On June 07 2010 20:53 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Then why are you so adamant about lynching deuce? He fits into that same category. Here are a few of your posts trying to get everyone to vote for deuce:
Deuce is not just a "I don't care about TL" guy. He makes somewhat decent posts on the damn K-pop forum.
He knows how to embed youtube video and also have the time to find animated GIFs to post on the DAMN K-pop forum.
I hate k-pop in general because they are bad. And some are so bad, that they are good.
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On June 07 2010 21:10 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2010 20:53 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Then why are you so adamant about lynching deuce? He fits into that same category. Here are a few of your posts trying to get everyone to vote for deuce:
Deuce is not just a "I don't care about TL" guy. He makes somewhat decent posts on the damn K-pop forum. He knows how to embed youtube video and also have the time to find animated GIFs to post on the DAMN K-pop forum. I hate k-pop in general because they are bad. And some are so bad, that they are good.
In the K-pop thread, he has two posts on June 5th and one on June 7th. So basically just one post on teamliquid outside the mafia since the game has really started. I'd hardly call that someone active on TL outside mafia. I really think he's a terrible target at this point.
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The longer this thread goes on, the worse it gets for Deucegladlier. If he doesn't speak up really soon, it'll probably be too late to avert a hanging. And I'm sure not interested in using a pardon just because he decides to speak up at the end.
While all of us continue to vote for Deucegladlier, by all means, lets discuss the other targets' merits and faults. People like CompX, Hugoboss21, and TyranoS_NiveK are on the block for inactivity - but there's also a number of people who have gotten a lot quieter on day 2 after an ok day 1...
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Are we going to keep lynching inactives until there are no more? If deuce flips green we should really rethink that...we only have so many lynches and so much time
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On June 07 2010 23:29 zeks wrote:
Are we going to keep lynching inactives until there are no more? If deuce flips green we should really rethink that...we only have so many lynches and so much time
My point exactly.
Incidentally, can someone enlighten me as to why we all gave our elected blues free passes? I'm still not convinced.
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Not to mention with all the early voting its going to be even harder for us to switch our lynch target when people have already bandwagoned on deuce - some of them are just gonna be like "oh i cast my vote early incase i go afk and can't vote later on"
The question is which is more important for us right now:
Getting rid of lurking mafia just to reduce KP
or
Getting rid of active mafia that's screwing around with the town and still reduce KP
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EPT
