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On June 07 2010 06:58 pyr0ma5ta wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2010 06:49 DarthThienAn wrote:
@pyromasta: Once again, clues are great and all, but they shouldn't decide who we lynch today. Similar to yesterday, a combination of inactivity and clues will most likely decide who gets lynched. But more inactivity.
Unless you (everyone in general) have something new to contribute about the clues, please focus more of players' posting behavior, inactivity, etc. Hm, well I thought I contributed by pointing out GilaBoy's obvious fail with the "Tiny the Stone Giant" thing, something which nobody had pointed out yet (though I fail to believe I'm the only one in this game who's played Dota). Is this not considered contributing?  Oh, and I'm not sure I agree that inactivity is an indication of Mafianess. We've already lynched an inactive non-Mafia. If we just lynch based on activity, the obvious Mafia counter-play is to just post a lot of blah blah blah.
Oh. I already knew that in my head (Dota reference), which is why I disregarded it. mb. =p.
Inactivity =/= mafia. But we need to get rid of it.
Posting a lot of blah blah blah will get them caught = ezpz for us to win, yeah?
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On June 07 2010 06:58 pyr0ma5ta wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2010 06:49 DarthThienAn wrote:
@pyromasta: Once again, clues are great and all, but they shouldn't decide who we lynch today. Similar to yesterday, a combination of inactivity and clues will most likely decide who gets lynched. But more inactivity.
Unless you (everyone in general) have something new to contribute about the clues, please focus more of players' posting behavior, inactivity, etc. Hm, well I thought I contributed by pointing out GilaBoy's obvious fail with the "Tiny the Stone Giant" thing, something which nobody had pointed out yet (though I fail to believe I'm the only one in this game who's played Dota). Is this not considered contributing? Oh, and I'm not sure I agree that inactivity is an indication of Mafianess. We've already lynched an inactive non-Mafia. If we just lynch based on activity, the obvious Mafia counter-play is to just post a lot of blah blah blah.
Well to be fair to about our first lynch, I don't think he posted at all? It was only the day 1 also.
The reasoning behind the inactivity lynching is because we want the game to be more lively etc but it helps us determine who is mafia and who isn't by their posting style.
All townies posting wouldn't need to be scared because they aren't mafia and hopefully with their posting patterns it shows but if mafias were to constantly post we are hoping to see some slip ups from the mafias.
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Alright, well responses aren't coming very quickly. So lets turn up the heat.
My vote is on Deucegladlier unless he convinces me he wants to play or someone shows up as a scum target.
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On June 07 2010 06:58 pyr0ma5ta wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2010 06:49 DarthThienAn wrote:
@pyromasta: Once again, clues are great and all, but they shouldn't decide who we lynch today. Similar to yesterday, a combination of inactivity and clues will most likely decide who gets lynched. But more inactivity.
Unless you (everyone in general) have something new to contribute about the clues, please focus more of players' posting behavior, inactivity, etc. Hm, well I thought I contributed by pointing out GilaBoy's obvious fail with the "Tiny the Stone Giant" thing, something which nobody had pointed out yet (though I fail to believe I'm the only one in this game who's played Dota). Is this not considered contributing? Oh, and I'm not sure I agree that inactivity is an indication of Mafianess. We've already lynched an inactive non-Mafia. If we just lynch based on activity, the obvious Mafia counter-play is to just post a lot of blah blah blah.
Sorry, never played nor looked into Dota, so I had no idea that Tiny was a character from it. Agreed though, activity level isn't always an indication of scum or not, but it's a general start. If the mafia posted a lot of "blah blah blah" they would be more likely to slip up and become inconsistent. It's that sort of behavior that we are looking for. The clues help no doubt, but they should be connected over time, so that they have a solid base to stand on. If a series of many clues points to an inactive or poorly posting individual, we've likely found ourselves some scum.
Anyway, sorry again for not knowing what Tiny was, Dota was never really my bag
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On June 07 2010 06:59 LunarDestiny wrote:
pyr0ma5ta, I see you are very active on TL (post made last week:85). Do you mind spending more time posting about this game?
I've noted that I will post if and only if I have something to contribute. Would be silly for me to post when I have nothing to say. Rest assured, I'm an active reader.
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For ElyAs’s death, the story: “stealthily kept to the shadow” caught my eyes, because it is mostly a dt/s or a ninja’s doing. The profiles that have a dt or a ninja is: Thegilaboy and zeks. The boy in zeks’ profile is Shikimaru, a ninja that knows Shadow Imitation Technique (reference: http://naruto.wikia.com/wiki/Shikamaru_Nara, under the heading Abilities).
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I'm not for the double lynch used right now - judging from YI/DTA's posts I kind of doubt the DTs have roleclaimed to them yet (which isn't necessarily a bad thing) and their posts haven't convinced me that they've really discovered too much outside of what the majority town doesn't know already.
Are the PMs different for a vet being hit or a medic save?
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On June 06 2010 11:44 YellowInk wrote:A note to the town at large - while this will provide evidence to whomever claims to be hit (assuming there is no argument and only one comes forward) that they are town, it's not 100% as the mafia could choose to decline a hit for just this purpose. But it'll be awfully good evidence. 
I know there have been a few accusations thrown out at me lately; I'll address those in my next post. But I want to emphasize the shit out of this post by yellowink. Do not put 100% trust in MTF. This could easily be a ploy by the mafia to draw blues by PM and get MTF into the mayor/pardoner circle (if there is one).
I think we should trust MTF to be town, but not trust him enough to have the blues PM him.
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On June 07 2010 07:39 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2010 11:44 YellowInk wrote:A note to the town at large - while this will provide evidence to whomever claims to be hit (assuming there is no argument and only one comes forward) that they are town, it's not 100% as the mafia could choose to decline a hit for just this purpose. But it'll be awfully good evidence. I know there have been a few accusations thrown out at me lately; I'll address those in my next post. But I want to emphasize the shit out of this post by yellowink. Do not put 100% trust in MTF. This could easily be a ploy by the mafia to draw blues by PM and get MTF into the mayor/pardoner circle (if there is one). I think we should trust MTF to be town, but not trust him enough to have the blues PM him.
I specifically asked the medic who covered MTF to come forward and tell MTF (and/or me). If no medic covered MTF, well, there's no one to come forward. I did not ask anyone and everyone to roleclaim to MTF, no worries.
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I guess voting for deucegladlier is a good idea then, since he clearly doesn't care about the game? Shame if he's a townie, but he's useless either way :\
I've already said it, but I think Hugoboss21 falls into the inactive category and should be added to YellowInk's list of Tyranos/deucegladlier/CompX for possible lynch targets.
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On June 07 2010 07:55 littlechava wrote:
I guess voting for deucegladlier is a good idea then, since he clearly doesn't care about the game? Shame if he's a townie, but he's useless either way :\
I've already said it, but I think Hugoboss21 falls into the inactive category and should be added to YellowInk's list of Tyranos/deucegladlier/CompX for possible lynch targets.
I would agree with this, and should Deucegladlier decide to speak up and provide insight and substance, I could be convinced Hugoboss21 is as good of a target as the other two for inactivity.
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Analysis: TheGilaBoy
- Claims to be new to Mafia
+ Show Spoiler +- Post 169 contains his attempts at connecting people to the drowning clue.
[note: I missed this the first time around but the day 1 post never explicitly state that BloddyC0bbler died from drowning. He could’ve died from a weapon and then was thrown into the fountain]
-Post 175, connects DCLXVI and jianbung to clues
-Post 207, requests jiabung to be added on list of suspects
-Post 269, expresses doubt against YellowInk, feels it is too early to vote
-Post 344, still requires more material from candidates, leaning towards Darth
-Post 396, suddenly decides to vote for YellowInk because he’s attracted a lot of attention (his reason for doubting YellowInk in post 269 was because he was eager to get into office)
-Post 435, concurs with LunarDestiny, expresses doubt towards Misder but not BrownBear
-Post 525, reiterates that he is new to mafia and is overwhelmed by some of it. Promises to be more vocal. Becomes less wary of YellowInk and Darth. Suspects Deucegladlier.
-Post 597, “I feel at least one of [YI and Darth] could be scum, but not very sure of that”
-Post 651, Links clues, promises to take a better look soon.
One thing I picked up was his initial reluctance to vote for YellowInk and then suddenly voting for YellowInk with his sole reason being "he's attracted a lot of attention". I don't have much to go on; thus I'll keep my vote on him as a placeholder until I find someone else that's suspicious.
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On June 07 2010 07:27 zeks wrote:
I'm not for the double lynch used right now - judging from YI/DTA's posts I kind of doubt the DTs have roleclaimed to them yet (which isn't necessarily a bad thing) and their posts haven't convinced me that they've really discovered too much outside of what the majority town doesn't know already.
Are the PMs different for a vet being hit or a medic save?
The reason I suggested the double lynch is not because I have some special information. It's because the faster we can get to a state where there are no inactives, the faster we can be hammering folk about the inconsistancies in their stories without any shadows for them to just hide in.
I suspect we will have plenty of 'good' lynch targets tomorrow even if there are no obvious scum. Then we can get on with the game. It is my hope that we would have info for at least one scum (maybe two if a DT happened to hit two scum in their rolechecks and came forward?) while still maintaining pressure on inactives to get in the game.
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I want to point out Mafia's Kill Power is calculated by:
Mafia KP = (# of Mafia / 2) rounded up. Max KP = 3, Min KP = 1
Current Mafia KP = 3
That means during each night, the mafia has the ability to killing to up 3 townies. The quicker we get their number down to 4. We can save one person per day.
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Ok, since there have been some concerns about me and my lack of response to each one, I'm going to summarize the posts accusing me and try to respond to each in turn.
On June 05 2010 12:07 LaXerCannon wrote:
...
AcrossFiveJulys:
Hint: showering Incognito with burning hot…
“burn your wings”
Just sharing one word is a rather weak clue, but it's fair that you pointed it out.
On June 06 2010 02:20 LunarDestiny wrote:
AcrossFiveJuly fits the description of I post a lot but not on this thread.
post last week: 33
post in the game: 3
Then there are numerous inactives who just doesn't post on TL at all therefore making them less likely be to mafia.
Ok, that's a fair thing to point out. That ratio should be much different now (36 to 8 or so). That method, though, also detects people who are in a mafia game but apathetic to whats going on, so in my eyes it might be a better detector for town inactives. I dunno you could argue it either way.
On June 07 2010 00:15 Misder wrote:AcrossFiveJulys seems to be dodging accusations against him. I think he has the most suspicious behavior, and there are clues pointing to him that he has not defend. I think we should clue check the barricade clue. I new to this game to, so im not sure if clues can be hidden in the description of the people. Show nested quote +
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ElyAs moved quickly, breaking into a quick run, hoping to make it back home before he was overtaken. However, he was not to make it. As ElyAs passed by the town courthouse, he noticed that he had already been beaten--the masked figure was sitting on the steps.
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Somehow the killer made it far enough ahead of Elyas to be sitting on the steps, waiting for him. This is despite Elyas running and the masked figure only following him before. Also, note the wording - he was "beaten" to the steps. Could indicate someone overwhelmingly winning.
zeks profile has connections to winning (his quote "winning isn't everything, its the ONLY thing" Show nested quote +
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As he reached out to grab the handle, he felt a weight push against him, and he went tumbling out the window.
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Note that this assailant, unlike any of the others before, was not seen in any way. It is simply "a weight", which when coupled with the window being opened at a sufficient height to kill Barth, could indicate this killer being some kind of "force" or supernatural being, rather than a person.
Icysoul has connections to the pushing barth out of the window. "Nothing can stand in the way of overwhelming power". But don't count AcrossFiveJulys out cause he also has the "weights in gym"
I'm not sure what to say to this except for this is part of what led me to write this post (saying I haven't responded to clue accusations), and also it's just another weak clue connection. I'm not going to defend myself by saying "hey wait, that clue points at these other people too" like gilgaboy did because I'm not going to point fingers at other people because of stupid weak clues.
On June 07 2010 01:53 crate wrote:Post 314 is worthless. AFJ therefore is voting before he's said anything in the main thread; Called out for inactivity and responds (post 599); says Darth + YellowInk is likely pro-town (442); claims to be much more active on Day 2 (post 599); responds to Thegilaboy's accusation (post 657). Thoughts:I don't like voting without reasoning and especially voting before you've said anything. He's played mafia before and calls Day 1 unimportant but in a previous game he played ( here, he says this: Show nested quote +AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Just for the record, I had a feeling that bill murray was red since the first day as evidenced by my first few posts and vote Which really doesn't match up with Show nested quote +AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I don't like to participate and throw accusations out a lot in day 1 of a mafia game because there isn't a lot of evidence to go byand it just serves to confuse. in post 599. (I was reading over that previous game as it happened and I thought there was plenty of information on Day 1 in it myself).
The point is that even though I had a feeling about billmurray, I did not push it and try to get him lynched early on because I knew how easy it is to misclassify people early on.
I also think it's odd that AcrossFiveJulys tells Thegilaboy to look for clues pointing at AFJ in the Day 2 post (in post 657). I'm not sure what, if anything, to make of this.
I have no idea what you're talking about here, care to explain? Perhaps you misunderstood my post? by the way, how are you able to number all of people's posts in this thread? Is there an automated post tracking bot, because I can't find it.
Furthermore he claims that he's been tracking certain people's behavior (post 599) without posting any thoughts on whom or why. I definitely want to see what AFJ has to say today and I'm interested in whom he was watching.
I've been tracking littlechava, you (crate), and zeks. I'll be posting later on my thoughts of each.
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I have no idea what you're talking about here, care to explain? Perhaps you misunderstood my post? by the way, how are you able to number all of people's posts in this thread? Is there an automated post tracking bot, because I can't find it.
You see that"#" thing next to "quote." Click on it and look at the address bar above.
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On June 07 2010 08:15 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Show nested quote +AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Just for the record, I had a feeling that bill murray was red since the first day as evidenced by my first few posts and vote Which really doesn't match up with AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I don't like to participate and throw accusations out a lot in day 1 of a mafia game because there isn't a lot of evidence to go byand it just serves to confuse. in post 599. (I was reading over that previous game as it happened and I thought there was plenty of information on Day 1 in it myself). The point is that even though I had a feeling about billmurray, I did not push it and try to get him lynched early on because I knew how easy it is to misclassify people early on.
I still feel like there's some inconsistency here; Day 1 should not be unimportant. Being active on Day 1 is as beneficial as being active later (though I personally feel like there's more to discuss when Day 1 has a lynch instead of an election, but I digress...).
AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Show nested quote +
I also think it's odd that AcrossFiveJulys tells Thegilaboy to look for clues pointing at AFJ in the Day 2 post (in post 657). I'm not sure what, if anything, to make of this.
I have no idea what you're talking about here, care to explain? Perhaps you misunderstood my post? by the way, how are you able to number all of people's posts in this thread? Is there an automated post tracking bot, because I can't find it.
I just found it odd that you'd specifically tell him to look for clues that pointed at you rather than someone else. Like I said, I don't know if this means anything.
You can find post numbers by looking at post histories, which I conveniently linked for you in my post above. Click the name.
AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Show nested quote +
Furthermore he claims that he's been tracking certain people's behavior (post 599) without posting any thoughts on whom or why. I definitely want to see what AFJ has to say today and I'm interested in whom he was watching.
I've been tracking littlechava, you (crate), and zeks. I'll be posting later on my thoughts of each.
Looking forward to it.
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Working on looking at Zyrre and MooCow now; I've noticed Deucegladlier's post and vote and I agree it's very strange. In particular, there's no benefit to the town if you're just going to post a one-line post each day and then vote for yourself or someone at random. There is some benefit if you're mafia, because it keeps you alive and that gives the mafia more KP and more time.
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LunarDestiny wrote:
You see that"#" thing next to "quote." Click on it and look at the address bar above.
Actually this has changed, it doesn't show which post number it is in the thread any more (though it used to work that way).
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crate, since you mentioned Deucegladlier's posting. I like to add something that I thought was not that relevant before.
I went digging up posts from Deucegladlier's posts on this thread and other thread his posted on (mostly on the k-pop thread. I noticed Deucegladlier's posts on this thread is pretty poor and the analysis are not that useful. But if you look at his posts on the k-pop thread, it is much better and sometimes he even writes a good paragraph.
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You can also just look up someones post history now. Example: crate
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Oh btw I think I miscounted onihunters posts last time, I think he had 28 instead of 30. Really doesn't matter, I just tossed that in because I was going through the posts anyway and it takes me all of a minute to count (incorrectly, apparently!). I think the rest are correct but I haven't double-checked.
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Zyrre:
Posts since the game began: 9 (starting at 250) plus one vote
Voting History: Day 1 vote for YellowInk at June 05 2010 00:03 (preceding post 407 by about an hour and a half)
Notes:
Says nothing game-related until halfway through Day 1 (post 407); suspect zeks and DCLXVI (post 542); a couple posts on clues (440, 673); some suspicion of Misder with note about Thegilaboy (684).
Thoughts:
Another pretty inactive player. I'm not a fan of waiting an hour and a half after you vote to explain it.... The posts between when he voted and when he explained his vote are significant, including several people proclaiming support of YellowInk (and you see that Zyrre begins a quick run of votes for YellowInk in the voting thread) and YellowInk calling out inactives in the thread. I really don't see a reason to wait for so long before you say why you voted.
I think his posts about clues are solid, but like I said I'm bad at clues so I'm not going to put much weight into this. It's easy for mafia to post good fake clue analysis (see, again, Pyrry's game for a great example--SugiuraMidori was doing most of the clue analysis, and it seemed legit, but she was red) too though. (This isn't to suggest that looking at clues is mafia-like, just that it's an easy way to hide).
His suspicion on DCL comes from clues (post 542); his suspicions of zeks and Misder come from posts (542, 684). However, Zyrre does not post why he thinks Misder is suspicious based on posting history....
I'd like to see more concrete arguments for his ideas. I see the potential for good reasoning but I don't see it being shown to the town.
Possible connections: ???
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MooCow:
Posts since the game began: 34 (starting at 153) plus one vote
Voting History: Day 1 vote for DarthThienAn at June 05 2010 06:08 (immediately preceding post 452)
Notes:
Begins with clue analysis (168-180); suspicious of candidates, support MTF (284, 401, 415, 475); mafia likely have one elected position (401, 415, 452, 475, etc.); new player with questions (various); notes LaXer and 3 Lions Night 1 posts (517); returns to clues on Day 2 (614-615); don't forget zeks (674);
Thoughts:
The obvious thing that stands out is his repeated emphasis that it's likely the mafia have at least one of the elected roles. If any of them chose to run, that's probably true, since a mafioso candidate getting no votes is basically unheard of and the unanimity of the election was quite striking.
(It's possible that no mafia chose to run. It's unlikely there are no previous players on the mafia side (I suspect flamewheel/BC didn't pick roles entirely randomly) but a couple names that I could have seen running like MTF, LunarDestiny, and myself chose not to run ... so it's possible that no mafioso tried to get elected. This happened in Pyrry's game, for instance.)
He echoes onihunter's thoughts at times on Day 1 (note that both are new players posting the same things). It's interesting that the only person he mentions he's confident in being town is MTF (unless I missed someone); he is suspicious of YellowInk, zeks, and Darth.
His content-to-post-number ratio is definitely lower than I'd like. Note that unlike onihunter, he doesn't just go along with the town consensus (he's probably still suspicious of YellowInk and Darth). What I'd really like is more analysis from him. He calls out Darth and YellowInk basically on being elected, says he's suspicious of zeks but doesn't post a concise, coherent argument. He looks to me like he's more firmly town-aligned than onihunter because he's not afraid to post his general ideas, but he doesn't do much convincing.
Possible connections: onihunter, MTF
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EPT
